Apresentação da palestra de James Heckman, no Seminário Educação para o Século 21, promovido pelo Instituto Ayrton Senna. Saiba mais: http://www.educacaosec21.org.br/

1. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Hard Evidence on Soft Skills
James J. Heckman
University of Chicago;
University College Dublin;
Director, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working
Group, Institute for New Economic Thinking
Noncognitive Skills: Importance and
the Relation with Cognitive Abilities
Ayrton Senna Institute
Sao Paulo, Brazil
October 25, 2011
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

2. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
We live in an era of widespread testing.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

3. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
We live in an era of widespread testing.
Achievement tests in particular have assumed a prominent role.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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We live in an era of widespread testing.
Achievement tests in particular have assumed a prominent role.
They are used to:
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

5. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
We live in an era of widespread testing.
Achievement tests in particular have assumed a prominent role.
They are used to:
i Measure skills of persons (e.g., SAT, ACT, ENEM, GRE,
GED) and certify suitability for admission and qualifications in
a variety of domains of life.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

6. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
We live in an era of widespread testing.
Achievement tests in particular have assumed a prominent role.
They are used to:
i Measure skills of persons (e.g., SAT, ACT, ENEM, GRE,
GED) and certify suitability for admission and qualifications in
a variety of domains of life.
ii To measure the performance of schools and entire national
school systems and nations (e.g. PISA scores, NCLB)
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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These tests are not well understood.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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These tests are not well understood.
a What do they measure?
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

9. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
These tests are not well understood.
a What do they measure?
b How are they validated? What do they predict?
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

10. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
These tests are not well understood.
a What do they measure?
b How are they validated? What do they predict?
c What do they miss?
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

11. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Achievement tests miss—or perhaps better—do not accurately
capture—soft skills.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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Achievement tests miss—or perhaps better—do not accurately
capture—soft skills.
Personality traits, goals, motivations, and preferences that are
valuable in the labor market, in school, and in many other
domains.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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A Multiple skills are useful in predicting and causing economic
and social success but with different weights in different tasks.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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A Multiple skills are useful in predicting and causing economic
and social success but with different weights in different tasks.
i People differ in their endowments of these skills.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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A Multiple skills are useful in predicting and causing economic
and social success but with different weights in different tasks.
i People differ in their endowments of these skills.
ii These differences in endowments and values of endowments
across tasks give rise to comparative advantage and sorting in
the labor market.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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A Multiple skills are useful in predicting and causing economic
and social success but with different weights in different tasks.
i People differ in their endowments of these skills.
ii These differences in endowments and values of endowments
across tasks give rise to comparative advantage and sorting in
the labor market.
B Personality traits—“soft skills”—can be measured.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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A Multiple skills are useful in predicting and causing economic
and social success but with different weights in different tasks.
i People differ in their endowments of these skills.
ii These differences in endowments and values of endowments
across tasks give rise to comparative advantage and sorting in
the labor market.
B Personality traits—“soft skills”—can be measured.
i They are often as predictive of many life outcomes as are
measures of cognition.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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A Multiple skills are useful in predicting and causing economic
and social success but with different weights in different tasks.
i People differ in their endowments of these skills.
ii These differences in endowments and values of endowments
across tasks give rise to comparative advantage and sorting in
the labor market.
B Personality traits—“soft skills”—can be measured.
i They are often as predictive of many life outcomes as are
measures of cognition.
ii Personality traits have causal effects on behavioral outcomes:
changing traits through interventions changes life outcomes.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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C Ignoring personality traits can deceive: conceals major social
problems by using achievement test scores as the measure of
success.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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C Ignoring personality traits can deceive: conceals major social
problems by using achievement test scores as the measure of
success.
D Traits are stable across situations.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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C Ignoring personality traits can deceive: conceals major social
problems by using achievement test scores as the measure of
success.
D Traits are stable across situations.
i Yet they can also be changed in a gradual way through
investment and experience.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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C Ignoring personality traits can deceive: conceals major social
problems by using achievement test scores as the measure of
success.
D Traits are stable across situations.
i Yet they can also be changed in a gradual way through
investment and experience.
ii Enhancing these traits is an important avenue for policy.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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C Ignoring personality traits can deceive: conceals major social
problems by using achievement test scores as the measure of
success.
D Traits are stable across situations.
i Yet they can also be changed in a gradual way through
investment and experience.
ii Enhancing these traits is an important avenue for policy.
E No evidence for extreme situational specificity of the sort once
advocated by Walter Mischel (1968).
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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C Ignoring personality traits can deceive: conceals major social
problems by using achievement test scores as the measure of
success.
D Traits are stable across situations.
i Yet they can also be changed in a gradual way through
investment and experience.
ii Enhancing these traits is an important avenue for policy.
E No evidence for extreme situational specificity of the sort once
advocated by Walter Mischel (1968).
F Situational specificity — that we are what we need to be in any
specific situation — plays a prominent role in modern
behavioral economics.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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C Ignoring personality traits can deceive: conceals major social
problems by using achievement test scores as the measure of
success.
D Traits are stable across situations.
i Yet they can also be changed in a gradual way through
investment and experience.
ii Enhancing these traits is an important avenue for policy.
E No evidence for extreme situational specificity of the sort once
advocated by Walter Mischel (1968).
F Situational specificity — that we are what we need to be in any
specific situation — plays a prominent role in modern
behavioral economics.
G There are “enduring traits” that persist and govern behavior
across multiple domains of economic and social life.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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I draw on recent research on the GED, an achievement test that
secondary school dropouts in the U.S. can take to certify that
they are the equivalents (in cognition) of high school graduates.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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I draw on recent research on the GED, an achievement test that
secondary school dropouts in the U.S. can take to certify that
they are the equivalents (in cognition) of high school graduates.
Brazil has a version of this test applied on a wide scale
(ENEM).
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

28. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
What Are the Lessons from This Research?
Success in life requires a lot more than what is measured by
academic achievement tests.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

29. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
What Are the Lessons from This Research?
Success in life requires a lot more than what is measured by
academic achievement tests.
Soft skills matter.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

30. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
What Are the Lessons from This Research?
Success in life requires a lot more than what is measured by
academic achievement tests.
Soft skills matter.
Personality—“character” broadly defined—can be measured.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

31. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
What Are the Lessons from This Research?
Success in life requires a lot more than what is measured by
academic achievement tests.
Soft skills matter.
Personality—“character” broadly defined—can be measured.
Personality can be fostered. It is an important, but neglected,
component of what schools and families produce.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

32. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
What Are the Lessons from This Research?
Success in life requires a lot more than what is measured by
academic achievement tests.
Soft skills matter.
Personality—“character” broadly defined—can be measured.
Personality can be fostered. It is an important, but neglected,
component of what schools and families produce.
A focus on achievement tests fostered by movements for
“accountability” distorts the incentives of students and
teachers.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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A Brief History of Testing
Goal of developers of IQ and achievement tests: to produce
“objective” and “comparable” measures of children and schools.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

34. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
A Brief History of Testing
Goal of developers of IQ and achievement tests: to produce
“objective” and “comparable” measures of children and schools.
Pioneers recognize their limits.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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A Brief History of Testing
Goal of developers of IQ and achievement tests: to produce
“objective” and “comparable” measures of children and schools.
Pioneers recognize their limits.
They understood that schools produced more than simple
“book learning” — academic knowledge — expressed
frustration about how to measure it.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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Early educators lacked a conceptual framework for thinking
about what exactly should be measured.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

37. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Early educators lacked a conceptual framework for thinking
about what exactly should be measured.
They lacked the technology for implementing such tests on a
wide spread scale.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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IQ
IQ in its modern form is an early Twentieth Century invention.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

39. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
IQ
IQ in its modern form is an early Twentieth Century invention.
It was conceived as a measure of the capacity to learn.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

40. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
IQ
IQ in its modern form is an early Twentieth Century invention.
It was conceived as a measure of the capacity to learn.
Was later broadened to a concept of ability to solve abstract
problems.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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IQ
IQ in its modern form is an early Twentieth Century invention.
It was conceived as a measure of the capacity to learn.
Was later broadened to a concept of ability to solve abstract
problems.
IQ was tested on a wide scale.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

42. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
IQ
IQ in its modern form is an early Twentieth Century invention.
It was conceived as a measure of the capacity to learn.
Was later broadened to a concept of ability to solve abstract
problems.
IQ was tested on a wide scale.
The successful application of the IQ test suggested the
possibility of testing achievement — what was learned — not
just the ability to learn — on a wide scale.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

43. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
IQ
IQ in its modern form is an early Twentieth Century invention.
It was conceived as a measure of the capacity to learn.
Was later broadened to a concept of ability to solve abstract
problems.
IQ was tested on a wide scale.
The successful application of the IQ test suggested the
possibility of testing achievement — what was learned — not
just the ability to learn — on a wide scale.
First IQ test was designed to screen out misfits in school.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

44. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
IQ
IQ in its modern form is an early Twentieth Century invention.
It was conceived as a measure of the capacity to learn.
Was later broadened to a concept of ability to solve abstract
problems.
IQ was tested on a wide scale.
The successful application of the IQ test suggested the
possibility of testing achievement — what was learned — not
just the ability to learn — on a wide scale.
First IQ test was designed to screen out misfits in school.
Role of the test was broadened to capture “intelligence” and
quickly became associated with “g”. (Terman and Thorndike)
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

45. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
IQ
IQ in its modern form is an early Twentieth Century invention.
It was conceived as a measure of the capacity to learn.
Was later broadened to a concept of ability to solve abstract
problems.
IQ was tested on a wide scale.
The successful application of the IQ test suggested the
possibility of testing achievement — what was learned — not
just the ability to learn — on a wide scale.
First IQ test was designed to screen out misfits in school.
Role of the test was broadened to capture “intelligence” and
quickly became associated with “g”. (Terman and Thorndike)
But the creators of IQ tests realized their limitations.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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Binet:
“[Success in school] . . .admits of other things than
intelligence; to succeed in his studies, one must have
qualities which depend on attention, will, and character;
for example a certain docility, a regularity of habits, and
especially continuity of effort. A child, even if intelligent,
will learn little in class if he never listens, if he spends his
time in playing tricks, in giggling, in playing truant.”
-Binet (1916, p. 254)
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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“What are the chief personality traits which, interacting
with g, relate to individual differences in achievement and
vocational success? The most universal personality trait is
conscientiousness, that is, being responsible, dependable,
caring, organized and persistent.”
-Jensen (1998, p. 575)
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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The modern conception of intelligence has moved well beyond
“g ” to a hierarchy of traits.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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The modern conception of intelligence has moved well beyond
“g ” to a hierarchy of traits.
But “g ” is still at the top of the hierarchy.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

50. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Figure 1: Modern View of “g ”: An Hierarchical Scheme of General
Intelligence and Its Components
Math Reasoning Visual Perception
Closure
Quantitative Reasoning Visualization
Closure Speed
Math Problems Spatial Relations
Closure Flexibility
Closure Speed
Closure Flexibility
gf Serial Perceptual Integration
(Fluid Intelligence) Spatial Scanning
Sequential Reasoning Imagery
Perceptual Speed
Inductive Reasoning Number Computation
Quantitative Reasoning RT and other Elementary Cognitive Tasks
Piagetian Reasoning Stroop
Clerical Speed
gc
Gc Digit/Symbol
(Crystallized Intelligence)
Verbal Comprehension General
Lexical Knowledge
g= Learning and Memory
Intelligence
Memory Span
Reading Comprehension
Associative Memory
Reading Speed
Free Recall Memory
“Cloze”
Meaningful Memory
Spelling
Visual Memory
Phonetic Coding Ideational Fluency
Grammatical Sensitivity
Ideational Fluency Knowledge and Achievement
Foreign Language
Naming Facility General School Achievement
Communication
Expressional Fluency Verbal Information and Knowledge
Listening
Word Fluency Information and Knowledge, Math and Science
Oral Production
Creativity Technical and Mechanical Knowledge
Oral Style
Figural Fluency Knowledge of Behavioral Content
Writing
Figural Flexibility
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Operationalizing IQ
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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Problem similar to the Raven’s Progressive Matrices test items
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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Problem similar to the Raven’s Progressive Matrices test items
Correct answer: 5
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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Origins of the Modern Achievement Test
Achievement tests were created in the wake of the IQ test as a
way to capture the knowledge acquired in schools, not just the
capacity to learn.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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Origins of the Modern Achievement Test
Achievement tests were created in the wake of the IQ test as a
way to capture the knowledge acquired in schools, not just the
capacity to learn.
The distinction between knowledge and the ability to acquire it
is clear.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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Origins of the Modern Achievement Test
Achievement tests were created in the wake of the IQ test as a
way to capture the knowledge acquired in schools, not just the
capacity to learn.
The distinction between knowledge and the ability to acquire it
is clear.
How one separates these concepts empirically is not so clear,
especially since the ability to acquire knowledge is not a fixed
trait but can be changed.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

57. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
General Knowledge
The inventors of the achievement test sought to measure
“useful knowledge” or “general knowledge” valuable in
functioning at work and in society, not specific knowledge of a
course.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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General Knowledge
The inventors of the achievement test sought to measure
“useful knowledge” or “general knowledge” valuable in
functioning at work and in society, not specific knowledge of a
course.
Designed to be “objective”—not depend on teacher
assessments as captured by grades. This was perceived to be a
way to implement meritocratic notions of education.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

59. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
General Knowledge
The inventors of the achievement test sought to measure
“useful knowledge” or “general knowledge” valuable in
functioning at work and in society, not specific knowledge of a
course.
Designed to be “objective”—not depend on teacher
assessments as captured by grades. This was perceived to be a
way to implement meritocratic notions of education.
Iowa tests; ACT; GED; ENEM; No Child Left Behind; NAEP;
PISA tests are modern versions.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

60. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Iowa Test of Educational Development (ITED)
Developed in 1930s and 1940s.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

61. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Iowa Test of Educational Development (ITED)
Developed in 1930s and 1940s.
The prototype for all achievement tests.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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What matters most is not how many detailed facts a
person can quote, but how well he can make use of what
he knows, and how straight he can think about personal
and group problems.
The Iowa Tests, therefore, were planned to measure the
fundamental ideas the student has acquired permanently,
and what he is able to do with them.
This seemed much more important than just measuring
the specific information he had memorized in a course,
which he would forget after the final exam.
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They were planned to measure the real knowledge and
reasoning ability a student had, no matter how he had
acquired them . . .
-Lindquist (1948)
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Achievement tests are designed to measure acquired knowledge.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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Achievement tests are designed to measure acquired knowledge.
But what motivates students to acquire knowledge?
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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Achievement tests are designed to measure acquired knowledge.
But what motivates students to acquire knowledge?
Cognition, personality, as well as environmental determinants,
such as parents, teachers, and peers.
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What Do Schools Produce?
Is it just the knowledge captured by standard achievement
tests?
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

68. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
What Do Schools Produce?
Is it just the knowledge captured by standard achievement
tests?
Every creator of an achievement test thought otherwise.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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Mann:
“Hence to value schools, by length instead of quality, is a
matchless absurdity. Arithmetic, grammar, and the other
rudiments, as they are called, comprise but a small part of
the teachings in a school. The rudiments of feeling are
taught not less than the rudiments of thinking. The
sentiments and passions get more lessons than the
intellect. Though their open recitations may be less, their
secret rehearsals are more.”
-Horace Mann (1867, p. 420)
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Other mechanisms of assessment besides the objective exam
were often suggested.
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“We lean heavily on written examinations, on a few types
of objective tests, and on the subjective impressions of
teachers. Many other appraisal devices could be used, such
as records of activities in which pupils participate,
questionnaires, check lists, anecdotal records and
observational records, interviews, reports made by parents,
products made by the pupils, and records made by
instruments (motion pictures, eye-movement records,
sound recordings, and the like).”
-Tyler (1940)
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But time and again, the achievement test won out as a cheap
tool of assessment.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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But time and again, the achievement test won out as a cheap
tool of assessment.
Other methods were more costly, even if they missed a lot.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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How are IQ and achievement tests validated?
Usually on grades and other tests.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

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How are IQ and achievement tests validated?
Usually on grades and other tests.
This is ironic in light of the fact that the achievement test was
invented in order to avoid the “subjectivity” of grades.
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Table 1: Predictive Validities of Standard IQ and Achievement Tests
Cognitive Achievement and IQ Tests
Test Domain over Estimated Validities Source Notes
which it is
validated
SAT First year col- 0.35 to 0.53 Kobrin et al. (2008)
lege GPA
ACT Grades in 0.42 ACT Incorporated
early years of (2007)
college
Stanford- Correlations 0.77 to 0.87 with WISC-R Rothlisberg (1987);
Binet with other Greene et al. (1990)
intelligence
tests
WISC Correlations WISC: 0.443 to 0.751 Hartlage and Steele WRAT =
(Wechsler with aca- with WRAT tests, 0.482 (1977) Wide Range
Intelligence demic to 0.788 with 1st grade Achievement
Scale for achievement grades, 0.462 to 0.794 with Test; ranges
Children) 2nd grade grades; WISC-R: are given
0.346 to 0.760 with WRAT because cor-
tests, 0.358 to 0.537 with relations vary
1st grade grades, 0.420 by academic
to 0.721 with 2nd grade subject
grades
Source: Almund et al. (2011).
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Table 1: Predictive Validities of Standard IQ and Achievement Tests
Cognitive Achievement and IQ Tests
Test Domain over Estimated Validities Source Notes
which it is
validated
WAIS (Wech- Correlations 0.67 (median) with ver- Feingold (1982)
sler Adult with other bal tests, 0.61 (median)
Intelligence intelli- with nonverbal tests, 0.69
Scale) gence tests, with education attained,
achievement 0.38 to 0.43 with col-
tests, and lege grades, 0.62 with high
outcomes school grades
Raven’s Correlations 0.74 to 0.84 with WAIS-R O’Leary et al.
Standard with other (1991)
Progressive intelligence
Matrices tests
GATB (Gen- Supervisor 0.23 to 0.65 Hunter (1986) Large range
eral Aptitude rating per- due to variety
Test Battery) formance of jobs
in training
programs
and in job
performance
Source: Almund et al. (2011).
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Table 1: Predictive Validities of Standard IQ and Achievement Tests
Cognitive Achievement and IQ Tests
Test Domain over Estimated Validities Source Notes
which it is
validated
ASVAB Performance 0.37 to 0.78 for training Schmidt et al. Large range
(Armed in military (mean=0.56); -0.15 for at- (1988) for perfor- in training
Services training trition mance in training correlations
Vocational programs programs; Sticht due to a
Aptitude and military et al. (1982) for variety of
Battery) attrition rates attrition rates jobs
GED (Gen- Test difficulty 0.33 to 0.49 for HS Senior Technical Manual:
eral Ed- is normed GPA 2002 Series GED
ucational against grad- Tests
Develop- uating HS
ment) seniors. Test
scores of high
school seniors
and grades of
high school
seniors
Other Valid- Correlation .75–.79 AFQT, .78 NALS, Boesel et al. (1998)
ity Studies of with other .81 Iowa Tests
the GED achievement
tests
Source: Almund et al. (2011).
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Table 1: Predictive Validities of Standard IQ and Achievement Tests
Cognitive Achievement and IQ Tests
Test Domain over Estimated Validities Source Notes
which it is
validated
DAT (Dif- Correlations 0.13 to 0.62 for college Omizo (1980) Large range is
ferential with aca- GPA due to vary-
Aptitude demic ing validity of
Tests) achievement eight subtests
of DAT
WIAT Correlation 0.80 with grade 4 CAT/2, Michalko and CAT=California
(Wechsler with other 0.69 with grade 5 CAT/2, Saklofske (1996) Achievement
Individual achievement 0.83 with grade 6 CAT/2; Test
Achievement tests; teacher 0.67 with teacher ratings
Test) ratings of
student
achievement
Source: Almund et al. (2011).
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Only recently has the validity of the tests on real world
outcomes been established.
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81. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Only recently has the validity of the tests on real world
outcomes been established.
They predict a bit, but they leave a lot unexplained.
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Only recently has the validity of the tests on real world
outcomes been established.
They predict a bit, but they leave a lot unexplained.
Achievement tests and grades are usually more predictive than
IQ.
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83. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Table 2: Validities in Labor Market Outcomes from the National
Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1979
NLSY79 Table of Proportion of Explained Variance (tests and school performance)
Source: Borghans et al. (2011)
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

84. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Personality
Personality and Motivation: missing dimensions that predict
adult performance.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

85. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Personality
Personality and Motivation: missing dimensions that predict
adult performance.
Some of the missing dimensions manifest in these tables that
explain a variety of educational and labor market outcomes.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

86. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Personality
Personality and Motivation: missing dimensions that predict
adult performance.
Some of the missing dimensions manifest in these tables that
explain a variety of educational and labor market outcomes.
Economist’s “Dark Matter” or “Dark Energy.”
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

87. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Personality
Personality and Motivation: missing dimensions that predict
adult performance.
Some of the missing dimensions manifest in these tables that
explain a variety of educational and labor market outcomes.
Economist’s “Dark Matter” or “Dark Energy.”
One popular measurement system: Big Five — OCEAN
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

88. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Personality
Personality and Motivation: missing dimensions that predict
adult performance.
Some of the missing dimensions manifest in these tables that
explain a variety of educational and labor market outcomes.
Economist’s “Dark Matter” or “Dark Energy.”
One popular measurement system: Big Five — OCEAN
Openness
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

89. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Personality
Personality and Motivation: missing dimensions that predict
adult performance.
Some of the missing dimensions manifest in these tables that
explain a variety of educational and labor market outcomes.
Economist’s “Dark Matter” or “Dark Energy.”
One popular measurement system: Big Five — OCEAN
Openness
Conscientiousness
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

90. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Personality
Personality and Motivation: missing dimensions that predict
adult performance.
Some of the missing dimensions manifest in these tables that
explain a variety of educational and labor market outcomes.
Economist’s “Dark Matter” or “Dark Energy.”
One popular measurement system: Big Five — OCEAN
Openness
Conscientiousness
Extraversion
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

91. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Personality
Personality and Motivation: missing dimensions that predict
adult performance.
Some of the missing dimensions manifest in these tables that
explain a variety of educational and labor market outcomes.
Economist’s “Dark Matter” or “Dark Energy.”
One popular measurement system: Big Five — OCEAN
Openness
Conscientiousness
Extraversion
Agreeableness
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

92. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Personality
Personality and Motivation: missing dimensions that predict
adult performance.
Some of the missing dimensions manifest in these tables that
explain a variety of educational and labor market outcomes.
Economist’s “Dark Matter” or “Dark Energy.”
One popular measurement system: Big Five — OCEAN
Openness
Conscientiousness
Extraversion
Agreeableness
Neuroticism
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

93. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Table 3: The Big Five Domains and Their Facets
Big Five Personality American Psychology Facets (and correlated Related Traits Childhood
Factor Association Dictionary trait adjective) Temperament Traits
description
Openness to “the tendency to be open Fantasy (imaginative) Sensory sensitivity
Experience to new aesthetic, Aesthetic (artistic) Pleasure in low-
cultural, or intellectual Feelings (excitable) intensity activities
experiences” Actions (wide interests) Curiosity
Ideas (curious) —
Values (unconventional)
Conscientiousness “the tendency to be Competence (efficient) Grit Attention/(lack of)
organized, responsible, Order (organized) Perseverance distractibility
and hardworking” Dutifulness (not careless) Delay of gratification Effortful control
Achievement striving Impulse control Impulse control/delay
(ambitious) Achievement striving of gratification
Self-discipline (not lazy) Ambition Persistence
Deliberation (not Work ethic Activity*
impulsive)
OCEAN
Source: Table adapted from John and Srivastava (1999).
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94. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Table 3: The Big Five Domains and Their Facets
Extraversion “an orientation of one’s Warmth (friendly) Surgency
interests and energies Gregariousness Social dominance
toward the outer world (sociable) Social vitality
of people and things Assertiveness (self- Sensation seeking
rather than the inner confident) Shyness*
—
world of subjective Activity (energetic) Activity*
experience; Excitement seeking Positive emotionality
characterized by (adventurous) Sociability/affiliation
positive affect and Positive emotions
sociability” (enthusiastic)
Agreeableness “the tendency to act in a Trust (forgiving) Empathy Irritability*
cooperative, unselfish Straight-forwardness (not Perspective taking Aggressiveness
manner” demanding) Cooperation Willfulness
Altruism (warm) Competitiveness
Compliance (not
stubborn)
Modesty (not show-off)
Tender-mindedness
(sympathetic)
Neuroticism/ Emotional stability is Anxiety (worrying) Internal vs. External Fearfulness/behavioral
Emotional Stability “predictability and Hostility (irritable) Locus of control inhibition
consistency in emotional Depression (not Core self-evaluation Shyness*
reactions, with absence contented) Self-esteem Irritability*
of rapid mood changes.” Self-consciousness (shy) Self-efficacy Frustration
Neuroticism is “a Impulsiveness (moody) Optimism (Lack of) soothability
chronic level of Vulnerability to stress Axis I Sadness
emotional instability and (not self-confident) psychopathologies
proneness to (mental disorders)
psychological distress.” including depression
and anxiety disorders
OCEAN
Source: Table adapted from John and Srivastava (1999).
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

95. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Alternative measurement systems and their communalities
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

96. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Competing taxonomies of personality
Evsenck Costa & McCrae Tellegen Zuckerman Cloninger Big Nine
Big Three NEO-PRF Big Five MPQ
Neuroticism Neuroticism Negative Emotionality Neuroticism-Anxiety Harm Avoidance Adjustment
Anxious Anxiety Stress reaction
Vulnerability
Depressed Depression
Guilt-feeling
Low self-esteem
Tense
Irrational
Shy Self-consciousness Alienation
Moody
Emotional Impulsiveness
Psychotism
Aggressive Hostility Aggression Aggression-Hostility Cooperativeness Agreeableness
Cold
Egocentric Rugged Individualism
Impersonal Agreeableness
Anti-social Altruism
Unempathic Compliance
Tough-minded Tendermindedness
Straightforwardness
Trust
(cont.) Modesty
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97. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Competing taxonomies of personality (cont.)
Evsenck Costa & McCrae Tellegen Zuckerman Cloninger Big Nine
Big Three NEO-PRF Big Five MPQ
Psychotism (cont.) Conscientiousness Constraint Self-Directedness Dependability
Deliberation
Dutifulness
Impulsive Self-discipline Control Locus of Control
Order
Competence Persistence Achievement
Achievement striving
Traditionalism
Extraversion Extraversion
Sensation-seeking Excitement seeking Harm avoidance Impulsive Sensation Novelty Seeking
Seeking
Venturesome
Active Activity Activity
Surgent
Carefree
Positive emotionality
Achievement Reward Dependence
Social Closeness
Sociable Gregariousness Sociability Affiliation
Lively
Assertive Assertiveness
Dominant Social Potency Potency
Positive emotions Well-being
Warmth
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98. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Competing taxonomies of personality (cont.)
Evsenck Costa & McCrae Tellegen Zuckerman Cloninger Big Nine
Big Three NEO-PRF Big Five MPQ
Openness Self-Transcendence
Fantasy
Aesthetics Absorption
Feelings
Actions
Ideas
Values
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

99. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Big Five is widely used.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

100. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Big Five is widely used.
Criticisms of Big Five
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

101. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Big Five is widely used.
Criticisms of Big Five
The five-factor model is atheoretical.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

102. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Big Five is widely used.
Criticisms of Big Five
The five-factor model is atheoretical.
The five-factor model is relatively silent on an important class
of individual differences: motivation and goals.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

103. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Defining non-cognitive traits for children
Childhood temperament is the term used by developmental
psychologists to describe the personalities of infants and
children.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

104. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Defining non-cognitive traits for children
Childhood temperament is the term used by developmental
psychologists to describe the personalities of infants and
children.
Most of the research on temperament has examined specific
lower-order traits rather than broader, higher-level factors that
characterize studies of adult intelligence and personality.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

105. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Validities for Personality Tests
What are the validities for personality tests?
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

106. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Validities for Personality Tests
What are the validities for personality tests?
How correlated are scores on these tests with behaviors?
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

107. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Table 4: Validities for Personality Tests
Source: Almlund et al. 2011
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

108. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Table 4: Validities for Personality Tests
Source: Almlund et al. 2011
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

109. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
How Predictive Are These Personality Traits?
What do they predict?
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

110. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
How Predictive Are These Personality Traits?
What do they predict?
With what strength?
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

111. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Figure 2: Association of the Big Five and intelligence with Years of
Schooling
Males
Emotional Stability
Agreeableness
Extraversion
Conscientiousness
Openness
Fluid Intelligence
Crystalized Intelligence
-0.1 -0.05 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35
Standardized Regression Coefficient
Unadjusted for Intelligence Adjusted for Intelligence
Source: Almlund et al. 2011
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

112. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Figure 3: Correlations of The Big Five and Intelligence with High School
Course Grades
Source: Almlund et al. 2011
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

113. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Duckworth, Heckman, Almlund, and Kautz 10/22/2010
126
Figure 13. Associations with Standardized Achievement Test Scores
Figure 4: Associations with Standardized Achievement Test Scores
Emotional Stability
Agreeableness
Extraversion
Conscientiousness Private School
Public School
Openness
Intelligence
-0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
Standardized Regression Coefficient
Note: The values represent standardized regression coefficients when controlling for age at IQ
test, gender, and ethnicity. IQ is measured using Raven’s Progressive Matrices.
Source: Duckworth (2009)
Martin and colleagues were among the first to demonstrate that teacheron Soft Skillsratings
Heckman Hard Evidence and parent

114. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
and the authors do not clearly delineate when the measures of personality were taken.
Figure 5: Associations with Job Performance
Figure 14. Associations with Job Performance
Emotional Stability
Agreeableness
Extraversion
Conscientiousness
Openness
Intelligence
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
Correlation
Note. The values for personality are correlations that were corrected for sampling error, range
restriction, and measurement error. Job performance was based on performance ratings,
productivity data and training proficiency. The authors do report the timing of the measurements
of personality relative to job performance. The value for IQ is a raw correlation.
Source(s): The values reported for personality traits come from a meta-analysis conducted by
Barrick and Mount [1991]. The value for IQ and job performance was reported in Schmidt and
Hunter [2004].
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

115. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Figure 6: Correlations of Mortality with Personality, IQ, and
Socioeconomic Status (SES)
Source: Almlund et al. 2011
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

116. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Ever Been in Jail by Age 30, by Ability (Males)
Figure 7: Ever been in jail by age 30, by ability (males)
zation .15
ment
nce .10
Probability
al and
tive
ds
.05
onment
ve
ates .00
ation 0 – 20 21 – 40 41 – 60 61 – 80 81 – 100
Percentile
mary
Cognitive
Noncognitive
Note: This figure plots the probability of a given behavior associated with moving up in one ability distribution for someone after
integrating out the other distribution. For example, the lines with markers show the effect of increasing noncognitive ability after
Source: Heckman, Stixrud, and Urzua (2006)
integrating the cognitive ability.
Source: Heckman, Stixrud, and Urzua (2006).
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

117. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Probability of Being Single With Children
(Females)
Figure 8: Probability of being teenage and single with children (females)
zation .10
ment
.08
nce
Probability
l and
.06
ive
s
nment .04
ve
ates .02
ation 0 – 20 21 – 40 41 – 60 61 – 80 81 – 100
Percentile
mary
Cognitive
Noncognitive
Note: This figure plots the probability of a given behavior associated with moving up in one ability distribution for someone after
integrating out the other distribution. For example, the lines with markers show the effect of increasing noncognitive ability after
Source: Heckman, Stixrud, and Urzua (2006)
integrating the cognitive ability.
Source: Heckman, Stixrud, and Urzua (2006).
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

118. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
How Predictive Are Achievement Tests Compared to
Conscientiousness for Success in Post-Secondary Education?
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

119. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Table 5: The Relative Predictive Power of Conscientiousness and SAT
Scores for College GPA
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

120. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
What Do Grades and Scores on Achievement Tests
Measure?
How are the scores on test and grades determined?
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

121. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
f
c
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

122. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Figure 9: Decomposing Achievement Tests and Grades into IQ and
Personality [NLSY79]
0.60
Achievement Grades
0.50 0.48
0.43
0.40
R-Squared
0.30
0.23
0.20
0.19
0.16
0.10
0.10
0.00
AFQT Grades
IQ, Rosenberg, and Rotter IQ Rosenberg and Rotter
Source: Borghans, Golsteyn, Heckman et al. [2011].
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

123. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Figure 10: Decomposing Achievement Tests and Grades into IQ and
Personality [Stella Maris]
Source: Borghans, Golsteyn, Heckman et al. [2011].
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

124. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
This explains in part the greater predictive power of
achievement tests and grades compared to IQ in explaining real
world outcomes.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

125. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Table 2: Validities in Labor Market Outcomes from the National
Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1979
NLSY79 Table of Proportion of Explained Variance (tests and school performance)
Source: Borghans et al. (2011)
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

126. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Causal Inference
Causality is essential in designing policy and interpreting
evidence.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

127. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Causal Inference
Causality is essential in designing policy and interpreting
evidence.
Correlation is not the same as causation, although a lot of
public policy is based only on correlations.
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128. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Causal Inference
Causality is essential in designing policy and interpreting
evidence.
Correlation is not the same as causation, although a lot of
public policy is based only on correlations.
The doctors in Russia.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

129. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Correlation vs. Causality
A is correlated with B
What is causal?
?
A B
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

130. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Correlation vs. Causality
A is correlated with B
What is causal?
?
A B
?
B A
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

131. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Correlation vs. Causality
A is correlated with B
What is causal?
?
A B
?
B A
?
A B
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

132. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Correlation vs. Causality
A is correlated with B
What is causal?
?
A B
?
B A
?
A B
? A
C
B
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

133. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Correlation vs. Causality
A is correlated with B
What is causal?
? ? B
A B
C
? A
B A
?
A B
? A
C
B
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

134. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Correlation vs. Causality
A is correlated with B
What is causal?
? ? B
A B
C
? A
B A
? B
? C
A B
A
? A
C
B
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

135. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Correlation vs. Causality
A is correlated with B
What is causal?
? ? B
A B
C
? A
B A
? B
? C
A B
A
? A ? B
C C
B A
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

136. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Questions
Are any of the predictive relationships between personality and
cognition and outcomes causal?
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

137. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Questions
Are any of the predictive relationships between personality and
cognition and outcomes causal?
Can we change cognition and personality and affect outcomes
or are they fixed traits?
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

138. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Questions
Are any of the predictive relationships between personality and
cognition and outcomes causal?
Can we change cognition and personality and affect outcomes
or are they fixed traits?
Is promoting cognition and personality a useful policy option?
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

139. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Questions
Are any of the predictive relationships between personality and
cognition and outcomes causal?
Can we change cognition and personality and affect outcomes
or are they fixed traits?
Is promoting cognition and personality a useful policy option?
What do we miss by ignoring soft skills?
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

140. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Difficulties in Establishing Causality
Reverse causality
(A ⇐⇒ B)
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

141. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
Difficulties in Establishing Causality
Reverse causality
(A ⇐⇒ B)
Measured traits can be caused in part by the outcomes being
studied.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

142. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
All psychological measurements are calibrated on task
performances.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

143. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
All psychological measurements are calibrated on task
performances.
A fundamental interpretive problem lies at the heart of any
psychological measurement system for any particular trait.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

144. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
All psychological measurements are calibrated on task
performances.
A fundamental interpretive problem lies at the heart of any
psychological measurement system for any particular trait.
For these traits to be accurate measures of any particular trait
or set of traits, it is necessary to standardize for incentives and
the effects of other traits in performing a task.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

145. Introduction Lessons History IQ Origins Modern Stability Appendix References
All psychological measurements are calibrated on task
performances.
A fundamental interpretive problem lies at the heart of any
psychological measurement system for any particular trait.
For these traits to be accurate measures of any particular trait
or set of traits, it is necessary to standardize for incentives and
the effects of other traits in performing a task.
Examples: Incentivizing IQ tests.
Heckman Hard Evidence on Soft Skills