Spot Emerging Transitions Complex Systems

How to Spot and Cope with
Emerging Transitions in
Complex Systems for
Organizational Stability

A Complimentary Webinar from Aurora WDC
12:00 Noon Eastern /// Wednesday 20 March 2013

~ featuring ~

Eric Garland Dr. Craig Fleisher

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Eric Garland works with leaders about how to manage
big changes to the global economy. He also plays bass.

Connect with Eric via:
Twitter: @ericgarland
Web: http://www.ericgarland.co
Web: http://www.transitionistas.com
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/EricGarlandFuture
Email: Eric@Ericgarland.co
Eric Garland
Author, analyst, curmudgeon

The Intelligence Collaborative is the online learning and networking
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AGENDA

 Defining “The Transition” and why it is
changing intelligence so radically
 Suggested tools for advanced organizational
understanding
 Q&A

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MANAGING THE POST-GROWTH ERA
 One of the biggest problems in our managerial
environment is a secular end to the growth of
consumption in our economies

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MANAGING THE POST-GROWTH ERA

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Intelligence: Then and now

 We understand the narrative, we misunderstand the
details
Narrative: Economic growth, globalization
Details (unknown): Individual competitors

 We understand (some) details, we misunderstand the
narrative
Details: competitor behavior that looks similar
Narrative: ??? Post-growth? Knowledge
economy? Singularity? Yard sales? What?

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INTELLECTUAL ENVIRONMENT

 The shock from this economic change has a
significant intellectual impact – a Crisis of Authority
To whom should we listen, and why?
Who can predict accurately – and should we
base major decisions on their speculation?
 Old problem: paucity of information
 New problem: paucity of analysis

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AUTHORITIES AT WORK

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AUTHORITARIAN INTELLIGENCE

 The age of authoritarian intelligence was predicated on
STABILITY
Assumed non-stop growth (except for business cycle
recessions)
Assumed “best practices” that could be applied across
industries and companies of all types
 Last Gen intelligence was based on institutional authority
One intelligence source with “executive buy-in”
Reporting structure made to look like media authorities

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LAST GEN INTELLIGENCE FAILS

 They say “nobody could see it coming” because of
failure of structure, not of analysis in general
 Last Gen analysis fails at several levels
Models are built around 1980s competition and
1990s risk (“competitors” and “disruption”)
Reporting structures have insufficient authority
to drive decision making through “brute force”
Bureacracies designed to insulate people from
failure, not sensitize them to failure

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NEXT GENERATION ANALYSIS

 The next generation of intelligence must drive
companies to manage the emergence of opportunities
and threats in a complex, dynamic system
 Next Gen Analysis will require

Post-authoritarian view
Peer to peer structure
One-size-fits-one
Iterative metrics – constant analysis of “is this
driving value?”
Accountability, not blame

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BROAD THINKING STILL RULES

 Threats and opportunities continue to come from disruptions not
typically included in Porterian competitive models
 GOOD OL’ STEEP:
Social: changing consumer values, generational
differences
Technological: product substitutions (This is still
Porter!)
Economics: Wealth inequality, wage suppression,
systemic breakdown (Europe, Japan, U.S.)
Ecological: unpredictable climate scenarios (New York
underwater, etc.)
Politics: Unrest (Arab Spring), policy shifts (Estonia,
Haiti), geopolitical tension (Iran, Pakistan, Central Asia)

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FORGET AUTHORITY, CHERISH THE ANALYST

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TRACK DISRUPTIONS BEYOND THE “NEWS CYCLE”

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DEBATES TRUMP REPORTS

WRONG,
WRONG
BUT MIGHT GET LESS
WRONG OVER TIME

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VALUE DRIVEN INTELLIGENCE STRUCTURE

Marketing
CEO CIO

CEO

Design

Consultants
INTEL

When you need to add value
All the time
to a specific project
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Spot Emerging Transitions Complex Systems

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