Ipsos MORI’s Political Monitor for May reveals a large shift in public opinion towards staying in the European Union over the last two years. More than half of Britons (54%) would vote to stay in the European Union in a referendum, with 37% saying they would vote to leave. This is a turnaround since we last asked the question in November 2012, prior to David Cameron’s pledge to provide a referendum were the Conservatives to win power in next year’s general election, when 44% said they would vote to stay in the EU, with 48% saying they would vote to get out.

1. POLITICAL MONITOR:
Europe Section
May 2014
Contacts: Bobby.Duffy@ipsos.com
Gideon.Skinner@ipsos.com
020 7347 3000

2. European Elections
Britain and the European Union
Party identification

3. 3
If there were a referendum now on whether Britain should stay in or get out of the European Union, how
would you vote?
Stay in or get out of the European Union?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th May 2014
54%
Stay in
37%
Get out
10% Don’t know

4. 4
Stay in or get out of the European Union? Trend
If there were a referendum now on whether Britain should stay in or get out of the European Union, how
would you vote?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th May 2014
26%
60%
63%
52%
49%
53%
51%
41%
54%
65%
29% 27%
36% 35%
32%
39%
49%
37%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Sep-77
May-78
Jan-79
Sep-79
May-80
Jan-81
Sep-81
May-82
Jan-83
Sep-83
May-84
Jan-85
Sep-85
May-86
Jan-87
Sep-87
May-88
Jan-89
Sep-89
May-90
Jan-91
Sep-91
May-92
Jan-93
Sep-93
May-94
Jan-95
Sep-95
May-96
Jan-97
Sep-97
May-98
Jan-99
Sep-99
May-00
Jan-01
Sep-01
May-02
Jan-03
Sep-03
May-04
Jan-05
Sep-05
May-06
Jan-07
Sep-07
May-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
May-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
May-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
May-14
Stay in
Get out

5. 5
Britain’s future role in Europe
Which of these options best describes your own preference for Britain’s future role in Europe?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
20%
23%
19%
30%
28%
28%
32%
29%
24%
13%
13%
24%
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th May 2014
Britain leaving the
European Union
altogether
Britain’s relationship
with Europe
remaining broadly
the same as at
present
Britain returning to
being part on
economic
community, without
political links
Britain and other
member states of the
European Union
moving towards
closer political and
economic integration
Apr ‘96
Nov ‘12
May ‘14
Apr ‘96
Nov ‘12
May ‘14
Apr ‘96
Nov ‘12
May ‘14
Apr ‘96
Nov ‘12
May ‘14

6. 6
Party identification
Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, UKIP, or what?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
5%
9%
31%
27%
UKIP
Liberal Democract
Labour
Conservative
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th May 2014

7. 7
Likelihood of voting for a party in the European &
2015 General Elections
How likely or unlikely are you personally to vote for… in this month’s European/ next year’s General
election?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Conservatives Labour Liberal Democrats UKIP
May’s
European
Election
2015’s
General
Election
May’s
European
Election
2015’s
General
Election
May’s
European
Election
2015’s
General
Election
May’s
European
Election
2015’s
General
Election
I’m certain to
vote for them 11% 13% 14% 14% 3% 2% 9% 4%
I probably
will vote for
them, but I
might change
my mind
13% 19% 16% 18% 10% 13% 8% 10%
I probably
won’t vote for
them, but I
would
consider it
14% 18% 15% 21% 15% 20% 11% 13%
I am certain
not to vote
for them
57% 46% 51% 43% 68% 62% 67% 68%
Don’t know 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5%
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th May 2014

8. 8
The utility of voting Liberal Democrat & UKIP
Thinking about next year’s general election, on balance do you agree or disagree with the following
statements?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
5%
41%
33%
6%
16%
21%
3%
7%
11%
14%
19%
20%
69%
14%
14%
3%
2%
2%
Voting for anyone at
in a general election
is a wasted vote
A vote for UKIP in a
General election is
a wasted vote
A vote for the
Liberal Democrats
in a General
election is a wasted
vote
Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/nor Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't know
34%54%
33%57%
11% 83%
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th May 2014

9. 9
Perceptions of UKIP
Now thinking about UKIP, to what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
26%
27%
25%
16%
9%
10%
15%
24%
19%
16%
6%
7%
UKIP is highlighting
important issues
which other parties
aren't taking
seriously enough
UKIP is a party that
is out of touch with
the modern world
Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/nor Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't know
40%
34%
43%
51%
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th May 2014