Support for the Labour Party is at the lowest level since the final days of Gordon Brown’s premiership, November’s Ipsos MORI Political Monitor reveals. Labour are down four points to 29%, their first score below 30% of the vote since before the last general election, while the Conservatives are up two points to 32%, giving them a three-point lead. This is a turnaround since last month, prior to recent media rumours of a Labour leadership challenge, when Labour held a three-point lead on 33% over the Conservatives’ 30%. UKIP are down two points from last month’s high on 14%, while the Liberal Democrats are up one point to 9%.

1. POLITICAL MONITOR
November 2014
Contacts: Bobby.Duffy@ipsos.com
Gideon.Skinner@ipsos.com
Harry.Carr@ipsos.com
020 7347 3000

2. Voting Intentions

3. 3
Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those
“certain to vote”
32%
29%
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
All giving a voting
intention: 81%
30%
30%
10%
Conservative lead = 0
14%
16%
Labour
Conservative
Lib Dem
UKIP
Other
Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8th -10th November 2014, all certain to vote = 642
All certain to vote: 60%
9%
Conservative lead = +3
14%
16%

4. 4
Nov-14
Aug-14
May-14
Feb-14
Nov-13
Aug-13
May-13
Feb-13
Nov-12
Aug-12
May-12
Feb-12
Nov-11
Aug-11
May-11
Feb-11
Nov-10
Aug-10
May-10
Feb-10
Nov-09
Aug-09
May-09
Feb-09
Nov-08
Aug-08
May-08
Feb-08
Nov-07
Aug-07
May-07
Feb-07
Nov-06
Aug-06
May-06
Feb-06
Nov-05
Aug-05
May-05
Feb-05
Nov-04
Aug-04
May-04
0
10
20
30
40
50
2010
General
Election
Cameron
elected
(Dec 05)
Feb-04
29%
9%
32%
14%
Brown as PM
(Jun 07)
2005
General
Election
Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through November 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Voting Intentions February ‘04 – November ‘14
(all certain to vote)
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

5. 5
How certain are Labour and Conservative supporters in their
intention to vote? February ‘08 to November ‘14
% of supporters “Absolutely certain to vote”
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
2010
General
Election
Labour Conservative
72%
66%
Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through November 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter

6. Satisfaction with the Coalition
and Party Leaders

7. 7
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister
/Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party/UKIP?
% Dissatisfied % Satisfied
53
62
65
44
60
38
26
21
38
33
Net
Satisfaction
Swing from
October
2014
-15 +1
-36 +0.5
-44 -5
-6 -1
-27 +1
David Cameron
Nick Clegg
Ed Miliband
Nigel Farage
The Government
Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8th – 10th November 2014. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and %
“dissatisfied”
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

8. 8
Satisfaction with Party leaders February ‘08 –
November ‘14
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ?
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Feb-08
May-08
Aug-08
Nov-08
Feb-09
May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Feb-10
May-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
May-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
Feb-13
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Farage
Feb-14
May-14
Aug-14
Nov-14
38%
26%
% satisfied
Cameron
Clegg
General
Election
38%
Miliband
21%
Brown
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

9. 9
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?
Net satisfaction
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
THATCHER
BLAIR
MAJOR
BROWN
CAMERON
Note: Data collected prior to November 2008 was collected via face-to-face
methodology; data collected from November 2008 was via telephone
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

10. 10
38%
53%
9%
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
David Cameron (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative
Party/ as Prime Minister?
Note: Data collected prior to November 2008 was collected via face-to-face
methodology; data collected from November 2008 was via telephone
November 2014
Don’t know Satisfied
Dissatisfied
Net = -15
Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8th – 10th November 2014
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
November 2006 – November 2014

11. 11
(satisfaction among Tory supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative
Party/ as Prime Minister?
November 2014 November 2006 – November 2014
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
David Cameron
Satisfied
80%
Don’t know
14%
6%
Dissatisfied
Net = +66 Note: Data collected prior to November 2008 was collected via face-to-face
methodology; data collected from November 2008 was via telephone
Base: 265 Conservative supporters 18+, 8th -10th November 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

12. 12
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
CAMERON (2005-2010)
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
(1994 – 2014)
BLAIR (1994-1997)
MILIBAND (2010-2014)
HOWARD
(2003-2005)
DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003) HAGUE (1997-2001)
Note: Data collected prior to November 2008 was collected via face-to-face
methodology; data collected from November 2008 was via telephone
Net satisfaction
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

13. 13
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
Number of months from
becoming Opposition
Leader
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders
(Labour)
BLAIR (1994-1997)
MILIBAND (2010-2014)
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Note: Data collected prior to September 2008 was collected via face-to-face
methodology; data collected from September 2008 was via telephone
Net satisfaction
CALLAGHAN
(1979-1980)
SMITH (1992-1994)
FOOT (1980-1983)
KINNOCK
(1983-1992)

14. 14
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders
(Conservatives)
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
*Thatcher data starts in March 1977 (i.e. 25 months after becoming Conservative leader)
Number of months from
becoming Opposition Leader
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
HAGUE (1997-2001)
DUNCAN
SMITH (2001-
2003)
CAMERON (2005-2010)
HOWARD
(2003-2005)
Note: Data collected prior to September 2008 was collected via face-to-face
methodology; data collected from September 2008 was via telephone
Net satisfaction
THATCHER*
(1975-1979)

15. 15
November 2014 November 2010 – November 2014
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Ed Miliband (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
21%
14%
65%
Net = -44
Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8th – 10th November 2014

16. 16
(satisfaction among Labour supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
Don’t know Satisfied
35%
Ed Miliband
November 2014
58%
7%
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Base: 234 Labour supporters 18+, 8th – 10th November 2014
Net = -23
Dissatisfied
November 2010 – November 2014
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

17. Nick Clegg (satisfaction) 17
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/
as Deputy Prime Minister?
November 2014 November 2008 – November 2014
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Note: Data collected prior to November 2008 was collected via face-to-face
methodology; data collected from November 2008 was via telephone
26%
12%
62%
Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -36
Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8th – 10th November 2014

18. 18
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Base: 83 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 8th – 10th November 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
November 2014
49%
45%
6%
Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = +4
Nick Clegg
(satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/
as Deputy Prime Minister?
November 2008 – November 2014
Note: Data collected prior to November 2008 was collected via face-to-face
methodology; data collected from November 2008 was via telephone
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

19. 19
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK
Independence Party?
38%
18%
44%
March 2013 – November 2014
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
All
Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -6
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8th – 10th November 2014

20. 20
Nigel Farage
(satisfaction among UKIP supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK
Independence Party?
UKIP supporters
89%
6%
6%
Base: 124 UKIP supporters, 8th -10th November 2014.
Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
March 2013 – November 2014
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
Net = +83

21. The economy

22. 22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Nov-04
Feb-05
May-05
Aug-05
Nov-05
Feb-06
May-06
Aug-06
Nov-06
Feb-07
May-07
Aug-07
Nov-07
Feb-08
May-08
Aug-08
Nov-08
Feb-09
May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Feb-10
May-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
May-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
Feb-13
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
May-14
Aug-14
Nov-14
Economic Optimism Index
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse
over the next 12 months?
Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8th -10th November 2014
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Improve
Stay the same
Get worse
Don’t know
Improve Get worse
Stay the same
November 2014
EOI = +19
42%
30%
23%
5%

23. 23
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Feb-97
May-97
Aug-97
Nov-97
Feb-98
May-98
Aug-98
Nov-98
Feb-99
May-99
Aug-99
Nov-99
Feb-00
May-00
Aug-00
Nov-00
Feb-01
May-01
Aug-01
Nov-01
Feb-02
May-02
Aug-02
Nov-02
Feb-03
May-03
Aug-03
Nov-03
Feb-04
May-04
Aug-04
Nov-04
Feb-05
May-05
Aug-05
Nov-05
Feb-06
May-06
Aug-06
Nov-06
Feb-07
May-07
Aug-07
Nov-07
Feb-08
May-08
Aug-08
Nov-08
Feb-09
May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Feb-10
May-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
May-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
Feb-13
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
May-14
Aug-14
Nov-14
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse
over the next 12 months?
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
+28
-46
-56
-48
+23
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
Index (get better minus get worse)
-64
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
+19
+34

24. Impact of the recovery

25. Personal financial circumstances- trend 25
Do you think that your personal financial circumstances will improve, get worse or stay the same over the
next 12 months?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
25%
23%
14%
17%
14%
42%
51%
37%
45%
52%
33%
30%
48%
39%
22%
2%
3%
3%
2%
2%
November
2014
November
2013
March 2011
April 2009
November
2008
Improve Stay the same Get worse Don't know
Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8th – 10th November 2014
Personal
EOI
+3
-10
-34
-13
-25

26. Perceived impact of the recovery 26
As you may know, according to official statistics the UK economy has grown by about 1.5%/3% compared to the same time last
year. What impact, if any, do you feel this growth in the economy has had on you and your family’s standard of living so far?
November 2014
17%
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
November 2013
Don’t know
3%
11%
36%
48%
1%
A great deal
None
at all
14%
84%
Don’t know
3%
14%
31%
49%
2%
A great deal
None
at all
80%
Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8th -10th November 2014

27. Perceived future impact of the recovery 27
And what impact, if any, do you think the growth in the economy will have on you and your family’s standard
of living over the next 12 months?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Don’t know
4%
15%
44%
33%
3%
A great
deal
None
at all
19%
77%
November 2013 November 2014
Don’t know
4%
18%
42%
33%
4%
A great
deal
None
at all
22%
75%
Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8th -10th November 2014

28. Confidence in leaders and
parties

29. 29
Readiness of Labour and Ed Miliband for
government
On balance, do you agree or disagree with the following statements:
23%
7%
12%
13%
4%
22%
7%
Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/nor
Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't know
16%
35%
9%
15%
9%
23%
12%
9%
9%
22%
26%
21%
26%
47%
35%
43%
31%
4%
4%
5%
4%
Labour is ready to form
the next government
Nov ‘14
Labour is ready to form the
next government
June ‘14
Ed Miliband is ready to
be Prime Minister
Nov ‘14
Ed Miliband is ready to
be Prime Minister
June ‘14
61%
52%
73%
65%
Source: Ipsos Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8-11 November 2014 MORI Political Monitor

30. Other parties’ readiness for coalition government 30
On balance, do you agree or disagree with the following statements:
UKIP is ready to form part
of a UK coalition
government
Nigel Farage is ready to be
a government minister
The Green Party is ready
to form part of a UK
coalition government
The SNP is ready to form
part of a UK coalition
government
9%
30%
11%
8%
8%
Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/nor
Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't know
21%
19%
30%
19%
21%
5%
7%
10%
13%
17%
13%
54%
20%
58%
19%
41%
41%
34%
27%
6%
9%
9%
12%
27%
29%
54%
46%
Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8-11 November 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor