China: Our Economy, Your Problem - JHKCBA Montreal
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On February 19, 2010, the Junior Hong Kong Canada Business Association McGill (JHKCBA McGill) brings in Mr. Alain-Marie Carron, Director at Secor-Taktik, to discuss the current global economic imbalance. As China leads the world out of recession, her western colleagues face challenges on the road to recovery, namely the drainage of capital that is moving eastward. In light of this, McGill students and Mr. Carron address the 8 implications of Chinese growth on western economies and the opportunities available for students entering the work force.
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China: Our Economy, Your Problem - JHKCBA Montreal
- 1. CHINA : «OUR ECONOMY, YOUR PROBLEM» 8 areas where Chinese development disturbs the West Alain-Marie Carron February 19th 2010 SECOR vendredi 19 février 2010
- 2. «THE DOLLAR IS OUR CURRENCY, BUT YOUR PROBLEM» 1971: Nixon’s Secretary of the Treasury, John Connally tells European to get lost vendredi 19 février 2010
- 3. LIU MINGKANG, HEAD OF CHINA BANKING REGULATORY COMMISSION «(USA) is boosting speculative investment in stock an property markets and will pose new, real and insurmontable risks to the global recovery» Source : FT 15/11/2009 vendredi 19 février 2010
- 4. TENSIONS WITH THE WEST Copenhague : China played its card, rejects verifiable climate control measures USA/Europe want a stronger Yuan and won’t get it (for now) US Congress approved arms sales to Taiwan Google leaves/stays in China China sells US Treasury bonds Washington drops the moon, Beijing wants to catch it vendredi 19 février 2010
- 5. BOOMING ECONOMY 2009 : Chinese buy 13,6 billion cars: + 46% vs 2008 CNOOC (oil) raises production by 7%, exploration by 30% CSG sells 6millions motocyles (world #1), +30% output China Rail: profits +50% China Diamonds : world #2 Overseas construction revenue: from $11 b in 2002, to $57 b in 2008 Dalian vendredi 19 février 2010
- 6. CHINA VS WORLD 1.Growth 6.Rush for Resources 2.Yuan 7.ChinAfrica 3.Exports 8.Politics 4.Buying the world 5.R&D-Education vendredi 19 février 2010
- 7. 1- GROWTH vendredi 19 février 2010
- 8. WEALTH CREATION vendredi 19 février 2010
- 9. RETURN OF THE WAVE vendredi 19 février 2010
- 10. HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION vendredi 19 février 2010
- 11. + SERVICES & HOUSING Source : Kenneth Curtis, Themes Investment Management : «The shift to Asia accelerates» vendredi 19 février 2010
- 12. INVESTING IN A DOWNTURN vendredi 19 février 2010
- 13. 2- THE YUAN Undervalued Yuan boosts exports Money received from exports goes back to USA feeds sovereign fund useful to buy & invest in primary resources abroad Exports keep production running, overcapacity manageable and employement at a suitable level Don’t forget : for a typical product manufactured in China less than 20% of the final profit margin is captured by chinese manufacturers vendredi 19 février 2010
- 14. 3- EXPORTS: CHINA # 1 Germany China 0 375 750 1 125 1 500 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009 Germany : 1,121.3b US$ China : 1,201,7bn US$ Source: OMC,FT vendredi 19 février 2010
- 15. 4- BUYING THE WORLD 2009 : outbound FDI exceed inbound FDI for the first time, reaching 150 billion US$ 2008 : China’s overseas investment nearly doubled compared to 2007, reaching 51.1 billions US$ vendredi 19 février 2010
- 16. ROOM FOR MANOEUVERING vendredi 19 février 2010
- 17. REASONS TO MOVE Having «national champions» that are world size players Sustaining growth of local companies through international market Selling productions of overcapacity sectors Moving up the value chain : producing more cheap goods abroad, more sophisticated ones inland Buying intangibles still scarce in China : intellectual property, intangible brand value, human resources with global operating talents vendredi 19 février 2010
- 18. THE GROCERY LIST Volvo would go to Geely, SAAB could have gone to BAIC... Piraeus harbour is managed by a Chinese company China would have liked to bail out Greece from its debt... vendredi 19 février 2010
- 19. 5- R&D -EDUCATION China as a center for R&D R&D spending has been growing about 17% annually for the past 12 years 2007 : multinational corporations have 1,160 R&D centers in China China’s goal si to spend 2,5% of GDP on R&D. 2005 : China spent 1,4% o, USA 2,6% , Japan 3,2% Education China produces around 300 000 engineers yearly vs 70 000 in USA vendredi 19 février 2010
- 20. 6- RUSH FOR RESOURCES vendredi 19 février 2010
- 21. ENERGY HUNGRY INDUSTRIES vendredi 19 février 2010
- 22. 7- CHINAFRICA Bilateral Chinese-African trade rose from $6.5 billions in 1999 to $106.8 billions in 2008 Second only to US ($116 billions) China has bilateral agreement with 48 african countries, loan agreement with 22 Congo : 90% of the state of Katanga minerals were exported to China, owner of 60 of the 75 processing plants Source : China’s African Challenges, Sarah Raine vendredi 19 février 2010
- 23. CHINESE-AFRICAN TRADE vendredi 19 février 2010
- 24. MORE OIL FROM AFRICA Africa Middle East Others 1995 2005 9% 25% 28% 46% China 45% oil importS 47% Le Monde 3.02.2007 vendredi 19 février 2010
- 25. 8- POLITICS «This circumstance has engendered what maybe the ultimate paradox, namely that Westerners, who have done more than any other people to create the modern world, are in certain respects the least capable of comprehending it» Paul A. Cohen, Discovering History in China vendredi 19 février 2010
- 26. conseilaction@gmail.com THANKS vendredi 19 février 2010