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Jobs growth tapered in 2014 but remained in positive territory
Jobs growth within the office-using employment sectors subsided somewhat in
2014. Still, these sectors did record incremental expansion which will translate
into moderately increased office demand over the coming year. According to the
most recent estimates from the BLS, total non-farm employment in Detroit stood
at ~1.9 million payrolls, representing an annualized increase of 41,600 jobs or
2.2 percent. Meanwhile, unemployment decreased 3.2 percentage points year-
over-year to 6.3 percent. Office-using employment sectors recorded an
annualized net gain of 12,500 jobs. Gains were led by the professional and
business services sector, which added 12,100 jobs year-over-year.
Office employment trends (12-month change)
Source: JLL Research
Office demand is compressing vacancy rates across most submarkets
Total vacancy in Detroit was 24.4 percent at the end of the first quarter, second
highest in the country (New Jersey took the top spot at 25.3 percent). Yet,
substantial absorption gains over the last four years have reduced the rate from
a high water mark of 32.9 percent in 2010. Since that time, more than 4.8 million
square feet of office space has been absorbed by local companies growing
operations and expanding footprints. Office demand growth has favored
downtown, but has not been limited to it. As a result, vacancy rates are
compressing across most submarkets and are forecasted to continue to
decrease over the coming year as the region records further demand growth.
Office vacancies
Source: JLL Research
Landlords slowly begin to push rents as market fundamentals tighten
Detroit’s average asking rent recorded year-over-year declines for much of the
last decade, a product of the region's elevated vacancy rate and negotiating
leverage resting firmly with tenants. However, with significant demand gains in
recent years and steadily decreasing vacancy rates, landlords have begun to
push rents. Class A asking rents averaged $22.95 per square foot at the end of
the first quarter, up $0.65 or 2.9 percent year-over-year while Class B asking
rents averaged $16.98 per square foot, up $0.24 or 1.5 percent year-over-year.
Further rent increases are forecasted over the coming year, particularly
downtown and in other key submarkets when demand is concentrated.
Asking rents
Source: JLL Research
24.4%
Total vacancy
557,459
Q1 2015 net absorption (s.f.)
1.6%
12-month rent growth
273,000
Total under construction (s.f.)
93%
Total preleased
Office Insight
Detroit | Q1 2015
Further vacancy compression, rising rents
(20.0)
(5.0)
10.0
25.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 2015
Financial Activities Professional & Business Services Information Government
15.0%
21.0%
27.0%
33.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 2015
Suburban CBD
$15.50
$18.50
$21.50
$24.50
2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 2015
Class A Class B
Current conditions – market and submarket Historical leasing activity
Source: JLL Research Source: JLL Research
Total net absorption (s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
Total vacancy rate
Source: JLL Research
Direct average asking rent ($ p.s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
$21.05
$20.75
$19.73
$19.31
$19.10
$18.56
$18.15
$17.76
$17.99 $18.09
$17.00
$18.50
$20.00
$21.50
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 2015
23.7%
25.9%
26.7%
30.0%
32.9%
30.8%
28.3% 28.0%
25.3%
24.4%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 2015
Suburbs
Landlordleverage
Tenantleverage
Peaking
market
Falling
market
Bottoming
market
Rising
market
CBD
5,000,000 5,000,000
5,300,000 5,100,000
700,000
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 2015
©2015 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.For more information, contact: Andrew Batson | +1 248 581 3300 | Andrew.Batson@am.jll.com
Robert Kramp | +1 312 228 2470| Robert.Kramp@am.jll.com
Detroit
-1,247,120 -1,304,860
-476,545
-1,953,820
-1,767,490
1,277,568
1,510,536
176,382
1,288,053
557,459
-2,500,000
-1,000,000
500,000
2,000,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 2015

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JLL Detroit Office Insight - Q1 2015

  • 1. Jobs growth tapered in 2014 but remained in positive territory Jobs growth within the office-using employment sectors subsided somewhat in 2014. Still, these sectors did record incremental expansion which will translate into moderately increased office demand over the coming year. According to the most recent estimates from the BLS, total non-farm employment in Detroit stood at ~1.9 million payrolls, representing an annualized increase of 41,600 jobs or 2.2 percent. Meanwhile, unemployment decreased 3.2 percentage points year- over-year to 6.3 percent. Office-using employment sectors recorded an annualized net gain of 12,500 jobs. Gains were led by the professional and business services sector, which added 12,100 jobs year-over-year. Office employment trends (12-month change) Source: JLL Research Office demand is compressing vacancy rates across most submarkets Total vacancy in Detroit was 24.4 percent at the end of the first quarter, second highest in the country (New Jersey took the top spot at 25.3 percent). Yet, substantial absorption gains over the last four years have reduced the rate from a high water mark of 32.9 percent in 2010. Since that time, more than 4.8 million square feet of office space has been absorbed by local companies growing operations and expanding footprints. Office demand growth has favored downtown, but has not been limited to it. As a result, vacancy rates are compressing across most submarkets and are forecasted to continue to decrease over the coming year as the region records further demand growth. Office vacancies Source: JLL Research Landlords slowly begin to push rents as market fundamentals tighten Detroit’s average asking rent recorded year-over-year declines for much of the last decade, a product of the region's elevated vacancy rate and negotiating leverage resting firmly with tenants. However, with significant demand gains in recent years and steadily decreasing vacancy rates, landlords have begun to push rents. Class A asking rents averaged $22.95 per square foot at the end of the first quarter, up $0.65 or 2.9 percent year-over-year while Class B asking rents averaged $16.98 per square foot, up $0.24 or 1.5 percent year-over-year. Further rent increases are forecasted over the coming year, particularly downtown and in other key submarkets when demand is concentrated. Asking rents Source: JLL Research 24.4% Total vacancy 557,459 Q1 2015 net absorption (s.f.) 1.6% 12-month rent growth 273,000 Total under construction (s.f.) 93% Total preleased Office Insight Detroit | Q1 2015 Further vacancy compression, rising rents (20.0) (5.0) 10.0 25.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 2015 Financial Activities Professional & Business Services Information Government 15.0% 21.0% 27.0% 33.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 2015 Suburban CBD $15.50 $18.50 $21.50 $24.50 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 2015 Class A Class B
  • 2. Current conditions – market and submarket Historical leasing activity Source: JLL Research Source: JLL Research Total net absorption (s.f.) Source: JLL Research Total vacancy rate Source: JLL Research Direct average asking rent ($ p.s.f.) Source: JLL Research $21.05 $20.75 $19.73 $19.31 $19.10 $18.56 $18.15 $17.76 $17.99 $18.09 $17.00 $18.50 $20.00 $21.50 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 2015 23.7% 25.9% 26.7% 30.0% 32.9% 30.8% 28.3% 28.0% 25.3% 24.4% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 2015 Suburbs Landlordleverage Tenantleverage Peaking market Falling market Bottoming market Rising market CBD 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,300,000 5,100,000 700,000 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 2015 ©2015 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.For more information, contact: Andrew Batson | +1 248 581 3300 | Andrew.Batson@am.jll.com Robert Kramp | +1 312 228 2470| Robert.Kramp@am.jll.com Detroit -1,247,120 -1,304,860 -476,545 -1,953,820 -1,767,490 1,277,568 1,510,536 176,382 1,288,053 557,459 -2,500,000 -1,000,000 500,000 2,000,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 2015