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SIGNALS
Wikipedia calls a Unicorn “A Legendary
beast with a large, pointed, spiraling horn
projected from its forehead.” Basically a
Unicorn is the magical pony of every school
girls’ daydream. Recently though Unicorns
have taken on a whole new fantasy, those of
investors. You cannot read a business jour-
nal, newspaper, or tune into business TV or
radio without mention of unicorn valuations,
startups, and rich 20-something tech entre-
preneurs that are on the verge of taking
their companies public.
So for investors that are not small school
aged girls, unicorns are private companies
that have a $1 billion or higher valuation
based on fundraising.
The term was coined by
Aileen Lee of Cowboy
Ventures in 2013. Ven-
ture Capital (VC) is a
very unique business
model, one of which
invests in many busi-
nesses and knows that
they will strike-out many
times, with the goal of
hitting a towering home-
run to make up for all
the misses (and then
some). Some Venture
Capitalists are great,
and some are not. It is
a bit of skill, a bit of
luck, but it at the end of
the day it is a giant game of unicorn hunting.
Silicon Valley has become breeding ground for tech-
nology company startups and has become the big
game hunting land of choice for VC hunters. Every
VC hunter wants to land the next Apple and that lead
to a big boom in the 1990s. VC lead private equity
invests in thousands of start-ups and the 1990’s
boom went from investments of 0.058% of GDP in
1994 and grew almost 1,900% to peak out at
1.089% of GDP in 2000. The dot.com bust in the
early 2000s was equally spectacular as the compa-
nies that were taken pubic peaked the Nasdaq at
5,046 in March of 2000 before losing 78% of value
and falling to 1,114 by 2002. The
dot.com bubble burst sent VC run-
ning to hide in the woods, but did
not cause tech extinction in the
magical forest that is Silicon Valley.
The bust caused private equity to
review the strategy of taking invest-
ments public as soon as possible
and since the bust VC has made
larger investments, held compa-
nies longer, and sponsored more
late stage funding which has al-
lowed today’s investments (still
mostly technology driven, and
many “social media” type invest-
ments) to surpass the $1 billion
valuation point prior to going pub-
lic. (continued on Page 2)
UNICORN HUNTING
Current EQS Short Recom-
mendations have gained an
average of 11%!
**You can achieve these
results with discipline and
by following the EQS daily
trade recommendations and
using the daily EQS Stop
Loss guidance
I N S I D E T H I S I S S U E :
Unicorns Continued 2
Oil and Products 3
Natural Gas 4
About EQS 5
Terms and Disclosures 6
EQS TR A D E RE C O M M E N DA T I O N S
THE S OUR C E
F OR C OM M OD ITY
TR AD ING SIGN ALS
Volume 1, Issue 22 November 23, 2015
A Weekly Publication on the Commodity Markets
©
Copyright © 2015 EQS Capital Management LLC, See important disclosure on last page
All rights reserved. 2 www.eqstrading.com
So what? You are not an aspiring tech entrepreneur, an investor of private companies, or a speculator in IPOs, so unicorns don’t matter to
you, right? Wrong! This is simply not true, unicorns are a big deal, and this is why should you care.
Unicorns spark the imagination of investments and markets. A healthy unicorn market is a healthy market. The late 1990s were boom
times for just about all markets, from retail, to automotive, to commodities, to manufacturing, to homebuilding, to tech.
One of Alan Greenspan’s legacies will be his analogy of the FED controlling the market by using the punch to get the party going, and then
taking away the punch bowl before the party got out of hand. Though the FED does not, and cannot control IPO and tech valuations, it
would seem like IPO and tech valuations have largely set the tone for market parties since World War II. Think about it, the birth of corpo-
rate efficiency gains after the war, the birth of the PC market, the birth of the internet, advances in science and medicine, and today’s mo-
bile technology and social media boom have all lead major market rallies, not the FED.
We live in a very dynamic economy where real goods and services, exchanging hands at real locations, fueled by real inputs and people fuel
our world. The “real world” that has been the bright spot since the Great Recession, but it is the technology and unicorns that have given
investors’ hopes and saved millions of people’s retirement funds. It has not been traditional brick and mortar businesses; it has been Face-
book, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google and other technology plays that have rallied the stock market from collapse. For the most part it
has not been weak demand that has driven down oil and natural gas prices, it has been supply efficiency gains that were spurred by what?,
Technology!
Wal-Mart is the largest retailer in the world, and the 3rd largest employer in the world. Wal-Mart made $3.93 billion last quarter, which is
$43,667,000 a day! Wal-Mart makes a “unicorn” worth of profit about every 3 weeks, yet when Wal-Mart hits earnings it is business as
usual, and when they miss things get ugly for a few days and may cause their stock to drift down (which it has this year) but it does not set
the market tone and cause panic, it should, but it doesn’t. Now look at Amazon. Amazon is publically traded so it is a “former” unicorn, but
it is the FUTURE growth that is driving Amazon past the market value of Wal-Mart and captivating the imagination of investors.
Amazon has averaged $16,500,000 in earnings over 2013 and 2014, and only in the last few quarters has it even returned to profitably, or
in terms of “unicorns” at profitability of the last two years it would take Amazon 60.61 years to make the same $1 billion unicorn worth of
profits that Wal-Mart makes in 3 weeks. Amazon’s 3rd Quarter earnings announcement of $0.17 per $564 share at the time jumped the
stock $55 on the announcement. Based on an EPS of $0.17 Amazon was priced at 3,317 times earnings before the news, and on the
news they added a staggering additional 323 times earnings!
The argument is not that Amazon and other technology firms may be overvalued, the argument is that as private equity holds companies
longer, invests in companies to grow them over the $1 billion unicorn level, there is hope that the current herd of unicorns can fuel, and can
continue to fuel the imagination of investors and keep growth alive across many different markets even as other sectors lag.
A soft stock market has shelved many recent public offerings, but the recent IPO of Square has put unicorns back in the spotlight. All eyes
will be on Square, as it is not only important to VC firms, and tech entrepreneurs, but important to all markets as unicorns are the brick and
mortar future of our economy and will be setting the tone for where our markets go no matter what the FED does.
UNICORNS…(CONTINUED)
Copyright © 2015 EQS Capital Management LLC, See important disclosure on last page
All rights reserved. 3 www.eqstrading.com
U.S. oil prices dipped below $40 a barrel several times this past week as heavy stockpiles contin-
ued to push crude lower. Light, sweet crude for December delivery fell as low as $39.89 a barrel
on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest intraday level since August, before it settled
down 21 cents, or 0.5%, at $40.54 a barrel, only to again claw back under $40 and test the Au-
gust lows again at the end of the
week.
Inventories have seen strong
growth at Cushing, Oklahoma, the
delivery point for the benchmark
U.S. futures contract, as the recent
pattern of pushing out the bulls
after the release of the weekly EIA
storage data. Inventory rose 2.1
million barrels in the week ended
Tuesday, with 1.8 million of those
barrels coming since Friday, ac-
cording to the data. The addition
comes on top of data from Wednes-
day showing nationwide crude sup-
plies increased by 300,000 barrels
last week, according to the U.S.
Energy Information Administration.
The build in the EIA report was less than analysts expected but it was counter to a draw reported
by the American Petroleum Institute, which had bulls excited prior to the EIA report. The inventory
report showed resilience in U.S. shale oil
production, which at 9.182 million barrels
a day last week was only 3,000 barrels a
day fewer than the previous week.
The data continues to put pressure on
Saudi Arabia to agree to a compromise
with other producers in the Organization of
the Petroleum Exporting Countries, as
other OPEC producers hope they can drive
prices up by getting the Kingdome to slow
its rampant production. OPEC plans to
meet Dec. 4, but most analysts’ say Saudi
Arabia will not back down from its efforts
to keep customers by pumping more and
undercutting competition.
A likely U.S. interest rate rise in December has contin-
ued to strengthen the dollar, which has also been
increasing pressure on global oil prices, which are
denominated in dollars. With stockpiles nearing his-
toric highs, a mild winter and limited heating demand
common during the continuing weather phenomenon
El Nio could push oil toward $20 a barrel, analysts at
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in their note on com-
modities that was sent to reporters on Thursday.
Other industry experts still see prices rising to the
$60s and $70s over the next 12 to 18 months, but for
now it looks like as we approach Thanksgiving prices
will be camped out around $40 as the turkey gets
carved and the Christmas decorations go up.
OIL COOKS BULL’S “TURKEY”
Oil and Refined Products
A likely U.S.
interest rate rise
in December has
continued to
strengthen the
dollar, which has
also been
increasing
pressure on
global oil prices.
Bearish
Copyright © 2015 EQS Capital Management LLC, See important disclosure on last page
All rights reserved. 4 www.eqstrading.com
Natural gas futures tumbled this past week,
sharply retreating following the release of U.S.
Energy Information Administration storage data
that offered an atypical injection for the week that
ended Nov. 13 and delivered a fresh record high
total gas supply. The latest addition was above
both the 9-Bcf injection seen in the corresponding
week in 2014 and the 12-Bcf five-year average
addition, and left total stocks 404 Bcf higher than
last year at this time and 207 Bcf above the five-
year average of 3,793 Bcf.
The EIA released its first storage report under a
new five-region breakout that outlined a net 15
Bcf injected into natural gas inventories in the
Lower 48 during the week ended Nov. 13. As the
result of the switch to the five-region structure,
along with rounding, the EIA revised its storage
figure for the week to Nov. 6 from a build of 49
Bcf to a 54-Bcf injection, which combined with
this week's injection brought total U.S. working
gas supply to a new record high of 4.0 Tcf.
NATURAL GAS: SWIMMING IN IT!
Bearish
Natural Gas
Despite the storage miss against expectations
the uncharacteristic build for the review week,
amid lackluster demand and ongoing strong
production heaped renewed pressure on the
market that has been struggling to find a bot-
tom, with recent short-covering rallies that lack
the fundamental support to be sustained. Fun-
damentals remain weak as weather forecasts
call for mild conditions in key heating markets
through early December as contracting natural
gas production remains above the prior-year
level.
US Natural gas storage saw a second refill dur-
ing the traditional “withdrawal season” as tem-
peratures remained above normal and produc-
tion is about 2 Bcf/ a day higher year-over-year.
Mild weather in the Northeast and Midwest
during the current week is expected to have
driven another small injection into natural gas
supply when the EIA releases its next report
Nov. 25, a day earlier than usual due to the
upcoming Thanksgiving Day holiday. Early pro-
jections for the forthcoming inventory report
span a range of builds from 7 Bcf to as much as
30 Bcf for the week ended Nov. 20.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admini-
stration sees above-average temperatures
spanning across the Northeast, portions of the
Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, central U.S., Southeast,
Gulf and portions of the Southwest. Average
temperatures are expected in areas of the Mid-
Atlantic, Southeast, Gulf, central U.S. and
Southwest, while below-average temperatures
will dominate the Northwest and grip portions of
the west-north central U.S.
For the eight- to 14-day period,
below-average temperatures
expand to grip nearly the entire
western two thirds of the U.S.,
while a band of average tem-
peratures span from a small
portion of the central U.S. into
Louisiana and across South
Texas, separating above-
average temperatures that
dominate the eastern third of
the country. So for all you bulls
out there you need to start your
gas ovens now to cook the tur-
key in hopes that you can burn
off some of the storage glut.
EIA revised its storage
figure for the week to
Nov. 6 from a build of
49 Bcf to a 54-Bcf
injection, which
combined with this
week's injection brought
total U.S. working gas
supply to a new record
high of 4.0 Tcf.
Copyright © 2015 EQS Capital Management LLC, See important disclosure on last page
All rights reserved. 5 www.eqstrading.com
Why You Need EQS
From technicals to fundamentals to macroeconomics, analyzing com-
modity markets can be a daunting task. Let EQS do the work for you.
Through its subscription service, EQS Trading provides traders and
hedgers easy to follow trading signals for major commodity futures mar-
kets, including crude oil, natural gas, gold, silver and many others. Now,
strategies used by institutions and hedge funds are at your fingertips.
The subscription service includes both daily trading signals and the
weekly Signals Newsletter, which provides in-depth insight to the com-
modity markets.
EQS Capital Management also offers a commodity hedge fund (EQS
Commodity Fund LLC), which employs the same signals in its subscrip-
tion service in a private placement fund for accredited investors and
institutions. Because EQS uses a “long” and “short” strategy, it is de-
signed to
generate
returns,
regardless
of which
way the
market is
moving.
EQS
Commod-
ity Fund
imbeds strict risk management principles through diversifying its portfolio
(energy, metals, and agriculture) and actively managing stop loss limits.
What is EQS?
Economic Quantitative Strategy (aka EQS) is an investment and trading
strategy that translates economic data and technical indicators into price
direction for
commodi-
ties. Be-
cause of its
quantitative
nature,
EQS has
been rigor-
ously back-
tested with
15 years of
historical
data to
ensure the
strategy works in a variety of market conditions. Furthermore, because
the global economy changes over time, EQS employs dynamic parame-
ters that evolve as the market changes.
About Us
Who is EQS?
Richard C. Rhodes
Mr. Richard C. Rhodes is the President and Founder of EQS Capital
Management LLC. Richard has a Bachelor of Science with honors in
Mechanical Engineering from Texas A&M University and an MBA
from Duke University. He brings almost 25 years of diverse energy
experience, covering all phases of the oil and natural gas value chain
from producer to end-user. Richard is a li-
censed Series 3 CTA (Commodity Trading
Advisor) with the Commodity Futures Trading
Commission and a member of the National
Futures Association.
Richard began his professional career on a
drilling rig in West Texas with Conoco Explo-
ration and Production. Richard continued his
oil and gas career with Koch Industries
(ranked as one of the largest privately-owned companies in the U.S.)
where he worked in midstream, refining, pipeline, and distribution
operations. During his eight years with Koch Industries, Richard be-
gan as an operations engineer and later found his true passion in
trading, which leveraged his professional interests in mathematics
and economics. Richard joined Duke Energy in 2002, where he spent
ten years working in the energy trading department and earned The
Pinnacle Award, the company’s highest honor. Richard then left Duke
Energy to launch EQS Capital Management in 2012.
Jonathan M. Lamb
Mr. Jonathan M. Lamb is the Director of Business Development at
EQS Trading. As a four year varsity hurdler
on the track team at Ball State University,
Jonathan earned Bachelor of Science de-
grees in Risk Management, Insurance, and
Economics, and started working on his PhD
in Economics at North Carolina State Uni-
versity before focusing on business and
trading.
As part of the first wave of Millennials to
join the work force, Jonathan started his
professional career almost 15 year ago,
joining ACES Power Marketing as an Operations Specialist, providing
demand side economics for Co-Op Power Providers before becoming
a Real-Time Electricity Power Trader. He continued his career trading
power for seven years with Progress Energy (now Duke Energy, the
largest utility in the nation) as a Senior Real Time Trader. Jonathan
then opted to become an entrepreneur and started a consulting firm
specializing in finance and economics, owning and running seven
different small businesses before joining EQS in 2015.
Copyright © 2015 EQS Capital Management LLC, See important disclosure on last page
All rights reserved. 6 www.eqstrading.com
EQS Trading
A Division of EQS Capital Management, LLC
8480 Honeycutt Road, Suite 200
Raleigh, NC 27615
Phone: 919.714.7453
www.EQStrading.com
E-mail: JL@EQScapital.com
Your use of this subscription is governed by these Terms and Conditions.
You may print the documents published in hard copy for internal reference purposes, but not for
any other purpose. Specifically, you may not copy, reproduce, distribute or modify the content.
The information may be changed by EQS at any time without notice. While EQS will use reason-
able efforts to ensure that the information is accurate and up to date, no representations or war-
ranties are given as to the reliability, accuracy and completeness of the information.
This material has been compiled and presented as general information, without specific regard
to the particular circumstances or risks of any company, institution, or individual. It is not in-
tended as, nor should it be construed to be, investment advice. In no event will EQS, its affili-
ates, nor any of its officers, partners or employees be liable for any loss or damage including
without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever
arising from loss of data or profits arising out of it, or in any connection with, your use of the Sub-
scription or the failure of performance, error, omission, interruption, delay in operation or trans-
mission.
Use of the Subscription Service shall be governed by all applicable Federal laws of the United
States of America and the laws of the State of Delaware. The user hereby acknowledges and
agrees that EQS may be harmed irreparably by any violation of this Agreement and that EQS
shall be entitled to injunctive relief to enforce this Agreement. The information contained has
been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not an offer to sell or purchase or a solici-
tation of an offer to sell or purchase any interests or shares in funds managed by EQS. Any such
offer will be made only pursuant to an offering memorandum and the documents relating thereto
describing such securities.
PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RE-
SULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESEN-
TATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMI-
LAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPO-
THETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY
PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RE-
SULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HY-
POTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD
CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE,
THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE
OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING
RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO
THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED
FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN AD-
VERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THERE-
FORE CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FI-
NANCIAL CONDITION. THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE THAT IS OFTEN OBTAINABLE IN COMMODITY
INTEREST TRADING CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. THE USE OF LEVERAGE CAN LEAD
TO LARGE LOSSES AS WELL AS GAINS.
THE REGULATIONS OF THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION ("CFTC") REQUIRE THAT
PROSPECTIVE CLIENTS OF A CTA RECEIVE A DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT WHEN THEY ARE SOLICITED TO
ENTER INTO AN AGREEMENT WHEREBY THE CTA WILL DIRECT OR GUIDE THE CLIENT'S COMMODITY
INTEREST TRADING AND THAT CERTAIN RISK FACTORS BE HIGHLIGHTED. YOU MAY REQUEST A COPY
OF THE DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT BY EMAILING EQS. THE CFTC HAS NOT PASSED UPON THE MERITS
OF PARTICIPATING IN THIS TRADING PROGRAM NOR ON THE ADEQUACY OR ACCURACY OF THE DIS-
CLOSURE DOCUMENT. THIS BRIEF STATEMENT CANNOT DISCLOSE ALL OF THE RISKS AND OTHER SIG-
NIFICANT ASPECTS OF THE COMMODITY MARKETS. THEREFORE, YOU SHOULD PROCEED DIRECTLY TO
THE DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT AND STUDY IT CAREFULLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS
APPROPRIATE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
EQS CAPITAL LLC IS A CFTC REGISTERED COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR AND COMMODITY POOL
OPERATOR. PURSUANT TO AN EXEMPTION FROM THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION
IN CONNECTION WITH POOLS WHOSE PARTICIPANTS ARE LIMITED TO QUALIFIED ELIGIBLE PERSONS,
AN OFFERING MEMORANDUM FOR THIS POOL IS NOT REQUIRED TO BE, AND HAS NOT BEEN, FILED
WITH THE COMMISSION. THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION DOES NOT PASS UPON
THE MERITS OF PARTICIPATING IN A FUND OR UPON THE ADEQUACY OR ACCURACY OF AN OFFERING
MEMORANDUM. CONSEQUENTLY, THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION HAS NOT RE-
VIEWED OR APPROVED THIS OFFERING OR ANY OFFERING MEMORANDUM FOR THIS FUND.
THESE SECURITIES HAVE NOT BEEN APPROVED OR DISAPPROVED BY THE SECURITIES AND EX-
CHANGE COMMISSION (THE “SEC”) OR ANY STATE SECURITIES COMMISSION NOR HAS THE SEC OR
ANY STATE SECURITIES COMMISSION PASSED UPON THE ACCURACY OR ADEQUACY OF THIS AS A
THE SOUR C E
F OR C OM M OD ITY
TR AD ING SIGN ALS
TERMS and DISCLOSURES

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Newsletter 112315 Final Volume 1 Issue 22

  • 1. Copyright © 2015 EQS Capital Management LLC, See important disclosure on last page All rights reserved. 1 www.eqstrading.com SIGNALS Wikipedia calls a Unicorn “A Legendary beast with a large, pointed, spiraling horn projected from its forehead.” Basically a Unicorn is the magical pony of every school girls’ daydream. Recently though Unicorns have taken on a whole new fantasy, those of investors. You cannot read a business jour- nal, newspaper, or tune into business TV or radio without mention of unicorn valuations, startups, and rich 20-something tech entre- preneurs that are on the verge of taking their companies public. So for investors that are not small school aged girls, unicorns are private companies that have a $1 billion or higher valuation based on fundraising. The term was coined by Aileen Lee of Cowboy Ventures in 2013. Ven- ture Capital (VC) is a very unique business model, one of which invests in many busi- nesses and knows that they will strike-out many times, with the goal of hitting a towering home- run to make up for all the misses (and then some). Some Venture Capitalists are great, and some are not. It is a bit of skill, a bit of luck, but it at the end of the day it is a giant game of unicorn hunting. Silicon Valley has become breeding ground for tech- nology company startups and has become the big game hunting land of choice for VC hunters. Every VC hunter wants to land the next Apple and that lead to a big boom in the 1990s. VC lead private equity invests in thousands of start-ups and the 1990’s boom went from investments of 0.058% of GDP in 1994 and grew almost 1,900% to peak out at 1.089% of GDP in 2000. The dot.com bust in the early 2000s was equally spectacular as the compa- nies that were taken pubic peaked the Nasdaq at 5,046 in March of 2000 before losing 78% of value and falling to 1,114 by 2002. The dot.com bubble burst sent VC run- ning to hide in the woods, but did not cause tech extinction in the magical forest that is Silicon Valley. The bust caused private equity to review the strategy of taking invest- ments public as soon as possible and since the bust VC has made larger investments, held compa- nies longer, and sponsored more late stage funding which has al- lowed today’s investments (still mostly technology driven, and many “social media” type invest- ments) to surpass the $1 billion valuation point prior to going pub- lic. (continued on Page 2) UNICORN HUNTING Current EQS Short Recom- mendations have gained an average of 11%! **You can achieve these results with discipline and by following the EQS daily trade recommendations and using the daily EQS Stop Loss guidance I N S I D E T H I S I S S U E : Unicorns Continued 2 Oil and Products 3 Natural Gas 4 About EQS 5 Terms and Disclosures 6 EQS TR A D E RE C O M M E N DA T I O N S THE S OUR C E F OR C OM M OD ITY TR AD ING SIGN ALS Volume 1, Issue 22 November 23, 2015 A Weekly Publication on the Commodity Markets ©
  • 2. Copyright © 2015 EQS Capital Management LLC, See important disclosure on last page All rights reserved. 2 www.eqstrading.com So what? You are not an aspiring tech entrepreneur, an investor of private companies, or a speculator in IPOs, so unicorns don’t matter to you, right? Wrong! This is simply not true, unicorns are a big deal, and this is why should you care. Unicorns spark the imagination of investments and markets. A healthy unicorn market is a healthy market. The late 1990s were boom times for just about all markets, from retail, to automotive, to commodities, to manufacturing, to homebuilding, to tech. One of Alan Greenspan’s legacies will be his analogy of the FED controlling the market by using the punch to get the party going, and then taking away the punch bowl before the party got out of hand. Though the FED does not, and cannot control IPO and tech valuations, it would seem like IPO and tech valuations have largely set the tone for market parties since World War II. Think about it, the birth of corpo- rate efficiency gains after the war, the birth of the PC market, the birth of the internet, advances in science and medicine, and today’s mo- bile technology and social media boom have all lead major market rallies, not the FED. We live in a very dynamic economy where real goods and services, exchanging hands at real locations, fueled by real inputs and people fuel our world. The “real world” that has been the bright spot since the Great Recession, but it is the technology and unicorns that have given investors’ hopes and saved millions of people’s retirement funds. It has not been traditional brick and mortar businesses; it has been Face- book, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google and other technology plays that have rallied the stock market from collapse. For the most part it has not been weak demand that has driven down oil and natural gas prices, it has been supply efficiency gains that were spurred by what?, Technology! Wal-Mart is the largest retailer in the world, and the 3rd largest employer in the world. Wal-Mart made $3.93 billion last quarter, which is $43,667,000 a day! Wal-Mart makes a “unicorn” worth of profit about every 3 weeks, yet when Wal-Mart hits earnings it is business as usual, and when they miss things get ugly for a few days and may cause their stock to drift down (which it has this year) but it does not set the market tone and cause panic, it should, but it doesn’t. Now look at Amazon. Amazon is publically traded so it is a “former” unicorn, but it is the FUTURE growth that is driving Amazon past the market value of Wal-Mart and captivating the imagination of investors. Amazon has averaged $16,500,000 in earnings over 2013 and 2014, and only in the last few quarters has it even returned to profitably, or in terms of “unicorns” at profitability of the last two years it would take Amazon 60.61 years to make the same $1 billion unicorn worth of profits that Wal-Mart makes in 3 weeks. Amazon’s 3rd Quarter earnings announcement of $0.17 per $564 share at the time jumped the stock $55 on the announcement. Based on an EPS of $0.17 Amazon was priced at 3,317 times earnings before the news, and on the news they added a staggering additional 323 times earnings! The argument is not that Amazon and other technology firms may be overvalued, the argument is that as private equity holds companies longer, invests in companies to grow them over the $1 billion unicorn level, there is hope that the current herd of unicorns can fuel, and can continue to fuel the imagination of investors and keep growth alive across many different markets even as other sectors lag. A soft stock market has shelved many recent public offerings, but the recent IPO of Square has put unicorns back in the spotlight. All eyes will be on Square, as it is not only important to VC firms, and tech entrepreneurs, but important to all markets as unicorns are the brick and mortar future of our economy and will be setting the tone for where our markets go no matter what the FED does. UNICORNS…(CONTINUED)
  • 3. Copyright © 2015 EQS Capital Management LLC, See important disclosure on last page All rights reserved. 3 www.eqstrading.com U.S. oil prices dipped below $40 a barrel several times this past week as heavy stockpiles contin- ued to push crude lower. Light, sweet crude for December delivery fell as low as $39.89 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest intraday level since August, before it settled down 21 cents, or 0.5%, at $40.54 a barrel, only to again claw back under $40 and test the Au- gust lows again at the end of the week. Inventories have seen strong growth at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the benchmark U.S. futures contract, as the recent pattern of pushing out the bulls after the release of the weekly EIA storage data. Inventory rose 2.1 million barrels in the week ended Tuesday, with 1.8 million of those barrels coming since Friday, ac- cording to the data. The addition comes on top of data from Wednes- day showing nationwide crude sup- plies increased by 300,000 barrels last week, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The build in the EIA report was less than analysts expected but it was counter to a draw reported by the American Petroleum Institute, which had bulls excited prior to the EIA report. The inventory report showed resilience in U.S. shale oil production, which at 9.182 million barrels a day last week was only 3,000 barrels a day fewer than the previous week. The data continues to put pressure on Saudi Arabia to agree to a compromise with other producers in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, as other OPEC producers hope they can drive prices up by getting the Kingdome to slow its rampant production. OPEC plans to meet Dec. 4, but most analysts’ say Saudi Arabia will not back down from its efforts to keep customers by pumping more and undercutting competition. A likely U.S. interest rate rise in December has contin- ued to strengthen the dollar, which has also been increasing pressure on global oil prices, which are denominated in dollars. With stockpiles nearing his- toric highs, a mild winter and limited heating demand common during the continuing weather phenomenon El Nio could push oil toward $20 a barrel, analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in their note on com- modities that was sent to reporters on Thursday. Other industry experts still see prices rising to the $60s and $70s over the next 12 to 18 months, but for now it looks like as we approach Thanksgiving prices will be camped out around $40 as the turkey gets carved and the Christmas decorations go up. OIL COOKS BULL’S “TURKEY” Oil and Refined Products A likely U.S. interest rate rise in December has continued to strengthen the dollar, which has also been increasing pressure on global oil prices. Bearish
  • 4. Copyright © 2015 EQS Capital Management LLC, See important disclosure on last page All rights reserved. 4 www.eqstrading.com Natural gas futures tumbled this past week, sharply retreating following the release of U.S. Energy Information Administration storage data that offered an atypical injection for the week that ended Nov. 13 and delivered a fresh record high total gas supply. The latest addition was above both the 9-Bcf injection seen in the corresponding week in 2014 and the 12-Bcf five-year average addition, and left total stocks 404 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 207 Bcf above the five- year average of 3,793 Bcf. The EIA released its first storage report under a new five-region breakout that outlined a net 15 Bcf injected into natural gas inventories in the Lower 48 during the week ended Nov. 13. As the result of the switch to the five-region structure, along with rounding, the EIA revised its storage figure for the week to Nov. 6 from a build of 49 Bcf to a 54-Bcf injection, which combined with this week's injection brought total U.S. working gas supply to a new record high of 4.0 Tcf. NATURAL GAS: SWIMMING IN IT! Bearish Natural Gas Despite the storage miss against expectations the uncharacteristic build for the review week, amid lackluster demand and ongoing strong production heaped renewed pressure on the market that has been struggling to find a bot- tom, with recent short-covering rallies that lack the fundamental support to be sustained. Fun- damentals remain weak as weather forecasts call for mild conditions in key heating markets through early December as contracting natural gas production remains above the prior-year level. US Natural gas storage saw a second refill dur- ing the traditional “withdrawal season” as tem- peratures remained above normal and produc- tion is about 2 Bcf/ a day higher year-over-year. Mild weather in the Northeast and Midwest during the current week is expected to have driven another small injection into natural gas supply when the EIA releases its next report Nov. 25, a day earlier than usual due to the upcoming Thanksgiving Day holiday. Early pro- jections for the forthcoming inventory report span a range of builds from 7 Bcf to as much as 30 Bcf for the week ended Nov. 20. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admini- stration sees above-average temperatures spanning across the Northeast, portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, central U.S., Southeast, Gulf and portions of the Southwest. Average temperatures are expected in areas of the Mid- Atlantic, Southeast, Gulf, central U.S. and Southwest, while below-average temperatures will dominate the Northwest and grip portions of the west-north central U.S. For the eight- to 14-day period, below-average temperatures expand to grip nearly the entire western two thirds of the U.S., while a band of average tem- peratures span from a small portion of the central U.S. into Louisiana and across South Texas, separating above- average temperatures that dominate the eastern third of the country. So for all you bulls out there you need to start your gas ovens now to cook the tur- key in hopes that you can burn off some of the storage glut. EIA revised its storage figure for the week to Nov. 6 from a build of 49 Bcf to a 54-Bcf injection, which combined with this week's injection brought total U.S. working gas supply to a new record high of 4.0 Tcf.
  • 5. Copyright © 2015 EQS Capital Management LLC, See important disclosure on last page All rights reserved. 5 www.eqstrading.com Why You Need EQS From technicals to fundamentals to macroeconomics, analyzing com- modity markets can be a daunting task. Let EQS do the work for you. Through its subscription service, EQS Trading provides traders and hedgers easy to follow trading signals for major commodity futures mar- kets, including crude oil, natural gas, gold, silver and many others. Now, strategies used by institutions and hedge funds are at your fingertips. The subscription service includes both daily trading signals and the weekly Signals Newsletter, which provides in-depth insight to the com- modity markets. EQS Capital Management also offers a commodity hedge fund (EQS Commodity Fund LLC), which employs the same signals in its subscrip- tion service in a private placement fund for accredited investors and institutions. Because EQS uses a “long” and “short” strategy, it is de- signed to generate returns, regardless of which way the market is moving. EQS Commod- ity Fund imbeds strict risk management principles through diversifying its portfolio (energy, metals, and agriculture) and actively managing stop loss limits. What is EQS? Economic Quantitative Strategy (aka EQS) is an investment and trading strategy that translates economic data and technical indicators into price direction for commodi- ties. Be- cause of its quantitative nature, EQS has been rigor- ously back- tested with 15 years of historical data to ensure the strategy works in a variety of market conditions. Furthermore, because the global economy changes over time, EQS employs dynamic parame- ters that evolve as the market changes. About Us Who is EQS? Richard C. Rhodes Mr. Richard C. Rhodes is the President and Founder of EQS Capital Management LLC. Richard has a Bachelor of Science with honors in Mechanical Engineering from Texas A&M University and an MBA from Duke University. He brings almost 25 years of diverse energy experience, covering all phases of the oil and natural gas value chain from producer to end-user. Richard is a li- censed Series 3 CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and a member of the National Futures Association. Richard began his professional career on a drilling rig in West Texas with Conoco Explo- ration and Production. Richard continued his oil and gas career with Koch Industries (ranked as one of the largest privately-owned companies in the U.S.) where he worked in midstream, refining, pipeline, and distribution operations. During his eight years with Koch Industries, Richard be- gan as an operations engineer and later found his true passion in trading, which leveraged his professional interests in mathematics and economics. Richard joined Duke Energy in 2002, where he spent ten years working in the energy trading department and earned The Pinnacle Award, the company’s highest honor. Richard then left Duke Energy to launch EQS Capital Management in 2012. Jonathan M. Lamb Mr. Jonathan M. Lamb is the Director of Business Development at EQS Trading. As a four year varsity hurdler on the track team at Ball State University, Jonathan earned Bachelor of Science de- grees in Risk Management, Insurance, and Economics, and started working on his PhD in Economics at North Carolina State Uni- versity before focusing on business and trading. As part of the first wave of Millennials to join the work force, Jonathan started his professional career almost 15 year ago, joining ACES Power Marketing as an Operations Specialist, providing demand side economics for Co-Op Power Providers before becoming a Real-Time Electricity Power Trader. He continued his career trading power for seven years with Progress Energy (now Duke Energy, the largest utility in the nation) as a Senior Real Time Trader. Jonathan then opted to become an entrepreneur and started a consulting firm specializing in finance and economics, owning and running seven different small businesses before joining EQS in 2015.
  • 6. Copyright © 2015 EQS Capital Management LLC, See important disclosure on last page All rights reserved. 6 www.eqstrading.com EQS Trading A Division of EQS Capital Management, LLC 8480 Honeycutt Road, Suite 200 Raleigh, NC 27615 Phone: 919.714.7453 www.EQStrading.com E-mail: JL@EQScapital.com Your use of this subscription is governed by these Terms and Conditions. You may print the documents published in hard copy for internal reference purposes, but not for any other purpose. Specifically, you may not copy, reproduce, distribute or modify the content. The information may be changed by EQS at any time without notice. While EQS will use reason- able efforts to ensure that the information is accurate and up to date, no representations or war- ranties are given as to the reliability, accuracy and completeness of the information. 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