Dtz insight net debt funding gap june 2013

DTZ Insight
Net Debt Funding Gap
Non-banks trigger surplus in core Europe
DTZ Research
6 June 2013
Contents
Introduction 2
Gross debt funding gap 3
Non-bank lenders 5
Net debt funding gap 7
Authors
Nigel Almond
Head of Strategy Research
+44 (0)20 3296 2328
nigel.almond@dtz.com
Hans Vrensen
Global Head of Research
+44 (0)20 3296 2159
hans.vrensen@dtz.com
 Over the next two years non-bank lenders are projected to more than bridge
the gross debt funding gap. This will lead to a surplus in a number leading core
European markets, such as the UK, France, Sweden and Germany (Figure 1). All
other markets remain exposed, most notably Spain, Ireland and Italy. By not
reallocating any surpluses, this leaves a USD50bn European net funding gap.
 In our updated analysis, Europe’s net refinancing gap has come down by 42%
compared to the USD86bn six months ago. The gross gap remains at USD163bn
reflecting a 16% decline over the same period. Increased writedowns and
redemptions in some markets have helped soften the regulatory impact.
 The level of refinancing required going forward will decline from a peak in
2013. The refinancing gap is expected to remain elevated in the near term
reflecting extension of loans originated at the peak of the market. Over the
longer term we expect the impacts to shrink with growth in non-bank lending
and as regulatory pressures force banks to work out their legacy loans.
 Despite a temporary slowdown in fund raisings in 2013, we do still expect more
growth in non-bank lending over the next three years. Their share of the
market is projected to be higher at 15% in the UK relative to Europe as a whole
(7%). Both remain well below the North American average of over 20%.
Surplus capacity in core markets will take time to be redirected to non-core
markets or re-priced. We expect these adjustments to happen over the next 2-
3 years. We see this as an important next phase in the European markets’
fundamental restructuring into a multi-channel funding model.
Figure 1
European gross and net debt funding gap, 2013-14, USD bn
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
 Gross debt funding gap  Non-bank lenders  Surplus/net debt funding
UK FR SE DE IT IE ES
Source: DTZ Research

www.dtz.com DTZ Insight 2
Introduction
This is the sixth issue in our Debt Funding Gap report series
and provides an update on our previous analysis released in
November 2012
1
.
In estimating the net debt funding gap, we adopt the same
four step approach as summarised below:
1. Estimate the refinancing gap based on refinancing
of maturing debt vintages
2. Add the impact of bank regulations to provide the
gross debt funding gap
3. Estimate the positive impact of non-bank lending
sources
4. Subtract the non-bank debt from the gross gap to
estimate the net debt funding gap
As in our previous report, our methodology for estimating
the base refinancing gap remains unchanged. It involves a
detailed analysis which takes into account:
 Vintage of outstanding loans
 Duration of loans by vintage
 Loan to value ratios by vintage
 Historic and future changes in collateral values, and
 Impact of loan extensions
Figure 2
Total outstanding debt to real estate, USD tn
0
2
4
6
8
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Europe -4%
North America -2%
Asia Pacific 7%
2012 Growth
Global 0%
Our analysis remains focussed on the near term refinancing
gap as we have greater oversight on the likely trends in
future capital values and refinancing LTVs. Both these
inputs have a significant impact on the gap. Our model does
extend out over future years, which we present, though
there is greater uncertainty over the sizing of this gap.
Since our last report we have made adjustments to some of
the inputs based on discussions with our research and deal
teams locally and also updated information provided in the
De Montfort University survey on UK commercial property
lending
2
.
Our starting point this year is the outstanding debt to
commercial real estate (CRE) as at the end of 2012. This
includes lending by banks, covered bonds and CMBS. In
reflecting the evolution of the market we also account for
non-bank lenders. We exclude property company bonds as
these are not secured against direct assets. Overall, the
amount of debt held against CRE was marginally lower
globally (-1%) as a rise in Asia Pacific was more than offset
by falls in Europe and North America (Figure 2). As a result
we have seen the continued reduction in aggregate gearing,
also supported by rising equity values (Figure 3).
1
Net Debt Funding Gap, European gap to be bridged by 2015, UK ahead,
14 November 2012
2
The UK Commercial Property Lending Market Research Findings 2012
Mid-year
Figure 3
Total debt as a proportion of invested stock
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Global
N.America
Europe
Asia Pacific
66%
59%
58%
54%
73%
64%
63%
55%

Gross debt funding gap
Deleveraging underway in major markets
Compared to a year ago deleveraging is now well underway
in many major markets across the globe. Some of the
biggest reductions in debt against CRE have been in the UK,
Spain and Ireland (Figure 4); markets that we have
previously identified as having significant funding gaps. The
reduction reflects high levels of writedowns and/or
redemptions which has more than offset any new lending.
Reductions were also observed in Germany, the
Netherlands and Japan. Of the major markets, France sticks
out with a modest increase in outstanding debt.
UK, Spain and Japan have highest refinancing gaps
Despite the reduction in debt, the UK, Spain and Japan all
show significant refinancing gaps over the next two years
2013-14 (Figure 5). The remaining refinancing gap is mostly
across the rest of Europe, with Italy and Ireland showing
relatively high gaps when compared to Germany.
Regulatory burden high, but beginning to soften
We have previously highlighted the significant impact that
regulation will have on the funding gap. In our November
report we highlighted that regulation would more than
double Europe’s refinancing gap to a gross USD190bn as
banks could be forced to delever their loan books by over
7% by the end of 2013.
Estimates on the level of deleveraging have not been
updated by the IMF since our last report, so we have
assumed the same rate. Given that many banks have been
actively shrinking their CRE loan books (Figure 4) we have
allowed for this reduction in our analysis through stripping
out any reductions at a country level from the total 7.3%.
As a result the regulatory impact is now less than the
refinancing gap. The changes show that the UK, Spain, Italy
and Ireland are no longer impacted by this reduction given
their already high refinancing gaps. In contrast France,
Germany and the Netherlands all take significant hits.
Overall regulation adds USD77bn to Europe’s USD86bn
refinancing gap to a gross USD163bn (Figure 6).
We are aware of other regulations being put in place at a
local level, for example slotting in the UK and France. As
transparency is poor with regulators applying different
approaches both within and across different jurisdictions
modelling is not yet possible.
Figure 4
Change in outstanding debt against CRE in selected
markets, local currency, 2012
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
Figure 5
Refinancing gap 2013-14, USD bn
0
10
20
30
Figure 6
European gross debt funding gap 2013-14, USD bn
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
0
10
20
30
40
 Refinanicing gap  Regulatory impact

Deleveraging eases regulatory burden
Compared with our report in November, Europe’s gross
debt funding gap has shrunk by 14% to USD163bn (Figure
7). The reduction reflects falls in a number of key markets
including Germany, the UK, Italy, Spain and the
Netherlands. Despite these falls the gross debt funding gap
still remains elevated.
Countries with larger stock figures would be expected to
have larger funding gaps by virtue of their size. Comparing a
country’s funding gap with its stock provides a more
realistic measure. On this basis Ireland remains the most
exposed market on a relative basis, with its gross funding
gap at 6% of its stock (Figure 8). Spain also has a relatively
high exposure, with the UK, France and Germany close
behind. Despite having a relatively low gross funding gap,
Hungary has a high relative exposure of close to 6%.
Across Asia we see no major regulatory impacts as we do in
Europe. This largely reflects the lower or negligible
refinancing gaps. We outline the Asian markets in Figure 8
in brown, and these all sit below the European markets on a
relative basis. This includes Japan which has Asia’s largest,
though shrinking, gap.
Figure 7
Change in European gross debt funding gap, USD bn
0
50
100
150
200
0
10
20
30
40
Nov 12 May 13
Figure 8
Gross debt funding gap 2013-14, USD bn, and as a % of
stock
FR
DE
HU
IE
IT
NL
ES
UK
AU
JP
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
%investedstock
Grossdebtfundinggap
Key
 Europe
 Asia

Non-bank lenders
Non-banks step up lending but funds are delayed
As banks limit new lending or withdraw from markets
altogether we are seeing a growing number of non-bank
lenders entering the market. In our previous report, we
estimate there to be USD173bn of new lending capacity
from these non-bank lenders over the period 2013-15 from
an estimated 68 funds and insurance companies (Figure 9).
We have updated our estimate based on new market
entrants and updates on some of the existing funds and
insurers who were entering the market (see Table 1 for a
list of new market entrants over the last six months). The
majority of these funds are domiciled in the UK or US.
Although the majority are new funds, we do see some new
raising of funds by insurers seeking to target institutional
investors who may not have the platform or track records
from which to lend directly.
For insurers we have based our estimates on stated lending
targets. For funds we have used their stated equity raising
target. We have also made allowances for new entrants to
emerge over the next few years. In Box 1 (overleaf) we
outline the impact these new lenders have had on the
market to date and their likely share of activity over the
near term.
Overall, we expect the amount of new lending capacity to
be marginally higher at USD181bn from a total of 80 funds.
However, we have revised downwards our near term
expectations. This reflects lower capacity from funds as we
do not expect availability to be as strong as we previously
estimated. We expect there to be a pick-up in later years
ahead of our previous estimates, especially in 2015.
We believe that insurers are in pole position today to take
advantage of the market, representing more than half of
new lending capacity. We expect to see this proportion shift
and be more evenly balanced by 2015 (Figure 10).
Figure 9
Lending capacity from non-bank lenders, USD bn
0
25
50
75
100
2013 2014 2015
Nov 12 May 13
No Funds
Nov 12 = 68
May 13 = 80
Figure 10
Lending capacity by lender types
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2013 2014 2015
Funds
Insurers
Table 1
Emerging non-bank lenders
Lender Type Domicile Focus
AEW (UK) Fund UK UK
First Property Group Fund UK UK
Aviva Core Senior Fund Fund UK UK
Pacific Mutual Insurer US UK
ARES Capital Fund US Europe
Aalto Investment Fund UK Europe
Renshaw Bay Fund UK Europe

Beyond the growth in new lenders, the appetite amongst
companies to tap into the bond markets has remained
strong. 2012 saw close to EUR15bn in new bond issuance in
line with our previous predictions. Already in the first
quarter this year we have seen issuance in excess of
EUR4bn, 15% ahead of Q1 2012. On this basis we expect
2013 issuance to rise above 2012 levels to around EUR17bn
(Figure 11).
We have also seen similar trends across Asia Pacific. Japan,
which has Asia’s largest gap, saw issuance grow 40% in 2012
to nearly USD5bn. Already in Q1 issuance was more than
double the level a year ago. Assuming growth of 50% this
year would lead to an additional USD7bn of lending
capacity.
Figure 11
Bond issuance by European property companies, EUR bn
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Forecast
Source: Bloomberg, DTZ Research
Box 1. Trends in non-bank lending
Compared to North America the European lending market is dominated by banks. Over three quarters of lending in Europe
has been provided by banks (Figure 12). Banks in North America make-up around half of lending, with non-banks, notably
life insurers accounting for up to 20% or more, with a similar proportion from CMBS (Figure 12). Lending from insurers has
been limited to just a handful of lenders across Europe and their share has to date been relatively small, albeit growing.
This reflects a broader range of lenders, including the arrival of US insurers such as TIAA CREF and Mass Mutual
(Cornerstone), with traditional European insurers such as AXA, Allianz and Aviva stepping up lending. Sales of both
performing and non-performing loans has also led to the entry of private equity funds, with other new funds seeking to
raise for both senior and junior lending. As a result non-banks’ share has risen to 2% in Europe and an even higher 7% share
in the UK.
Looking forward, assuming 75% of non-bank lending capacity is for new loans and that any new lending by banks is offset
by deleveraging, we can estimate future market shares. On this basis non-banks increase their market share to 15% in the
UK over the next three years and 7% in Europe (Figure 13). This is still short of the 23% average in North America.
Figure 12
Outstanding debt by lender type, YE 2012
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
North
America
Europe Asia Pacific UK
Banks
Non-banks
CMBS
Covered bonds
Figure 13
Non-bank lenders market share
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
UK only European total
Forecast

Net debt funding gap
Gap eroding in major markets
In analysing the market going forward we have estimated
the likely target focus of the non-bank lenders at a country
level. With bond issuance able to cover much of the gap in
Asia Pacific, the focus of this section is on Europe where we
see the biggest challenges.
For the major European markets of the UK, France and
Germany we have made estimates on capital targeting
them based on stated preferences. For the remaining
markets we have estimated their share based on the
relative size of their debt markets. For bonds we have
apportioned according to trends in raising over 2012. We
have also made allowances for the major investors whose
portfolios span across Europe.
Based on this analysis, we estimate that new non-bank
lenders could provide sufficient new lending capacity to
erode the gross funding gap in the UK, France, Sweden and
Germany to zero, with more than sufficient capacity across
the UK and France (Figure 14). This reflects the relative size
of these markets which benefit from major domestic
insurers and funds who are mainly focused on their home
market.
Spain most exposed on a net basis
In Spain we see more limited new lending capacity or bond
issuance, which still leaves a significant USD17bn net
funding gap over the next two years (Figure 15). With
transfers to SAREB completed at the beginning of this year
we could see further progress in bank writedowns helping
to shrink this gap. Other markets showing marginal risks
include Ireland, Italy and the Netherlands. With many Dutch
banks under state control we expect government pressures
to force further deleveraging. We also expect NAMA to
accelerate the work out of loans in Ireland.
Looking across other markets in Europe, we can compare
the gross and net funding gaps relative to the size of
outstanding debt (Figure 16). Those markets below the
horizontal dashed line have below average net debt funding
gaps. These include the UK, France and Germany, despite
having high gross gaps. Spain is highlighted in the top right
as being most exposed. This highlights the need for further
deleveraging in the country, although a shift of further
assets into SAREB may ease some of these burdens.
Figure 14
European gross and net debt funding gap 2013-14, USD bn
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
 Gross debt funding gap  Non-bank lenders  Surplus/net debt funding
UK FR SE DE IT IE ES
Figure 15
Surplus and net debt funding gap, USD bn, 2013-14
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Figure 16
Gross and net debt funding gap compared to debt
outstanding, USD bn
FR
DE
IT
NL
RU
ES
NO SE
IE
UK
100
250
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Netdebtfundinggap
Gross debt funding gap
US
JP
CN
ES
DE
Outstanding debt
USDbn

Surplus to shift to non-core markets
For Europe as a whole we see progress in plugging the gap,
with Europe’s gap eroding to a net USD50bn, or 30% of its
gross level (Figure 17).
As we more closely assess the impact across each market,
we expect that the bigger, core lending markets are likely to
benefit more in the short term from this trend. Surplus
capacity in some of these core markets will likely take some
time to be re-directed or re-priced. But we do expect this
adjustment to happen in the next 2-3 years. We see this as
an important next phase in the European markets’
fundamental restructuring into a multi-channel funding
model. With an additional USD124bn of equity capital
available, combined this should be more than sufficient to
bridge the gap, particularly given a high proportion of this is
directed at non-core assets
3
.
End in sight, but tail of workout will last longer
As we move forward we see reasons to be positive that an
end is in sight for the funding gap. We see a shrinking
refinancing profile across Europe, falling from over
USD300bn this year to USD265bn by 2016 (Figure 18). We
would expect this to taper away further reflecting the
recent reduction in loan extensions.
Despite this fall, we still see an increase in the refinancing
gap over the near term (Figure 19). This reflects loans
originated or refinanced at the peak of the market and that
have subsequently extended in recent years. It also reflects
limited growth in values that we expect in the near term,
with values falling in some markets.
Regulation forces deleveraging
Given the recent growth in alternative lending sources and
the availability of sufficient equity capital, we would expect
this to be more than sufficient to bridge the gap. We expect
the core European markets to be ahead of the curve as
banks actively seek to reduce their balance sheets and
manage the cost of holding problematic loans on their
balance sheets. Regulatory pressures will also force banks
into working out problematic loans as the capital needed to
set aside for loans increases. This will lead to further pain
and writedowns over the coming years and the likelihood of
increasing foreclosures as the economic environment
improves. This would be consistent with behaviours in
previous cycles.
3
Great Wall of Money, More cross border and non-core coming next, 22
March 2013
Figure 17
European net debt funding gap 2013-14, USD bn
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
Gross debt
funding gap
Non-bank
lenders
Net debt
funding
gap
Available
equity
Refinancing
Regulation
Insurers
Funds
Bonds
Net gap
Figure 18
European refinancing requirements, USD bn
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2013 2014 2015 2016
Figure 19
European refinancing gap 2013-16, USD bn
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2013 2014 2015 2016
UK
Rest ofEurope
Spain
France
Germany
Italy
Ireland

We also expect to see more activity in markets such as the
Netherlands where the state has been proactive in
providing support to the banking sector and pressures will
be greatest to manage solutions. In more exposed markets
such as Ireland and in particular Spain, which is only just
establishing its bad bank, we see more of a tail risk. With a
longer work-out of loans this may impact the speed of
recovery.
Greater transparency required on regulation
Whilst we see a step-up in the regulations, there remains a
lack of transparency both across and within jurisdictions.
Given the scale of the crisis over recent years, regulators
and other market authorities have a clear chance to
enhance their stewardship of banks and other lenders in
their markets. A transparent and coordinated approach
across Europe would seem a sensible solution going
forward.
Growth in loan sales as lot sizes reduce
Over the past six months we have seen the continued use of
loan sales by banks as a means of deleveraging and ensuring
they are adequately capitalised. As expected the typical size
of loan sales has shrunk over the past three months
reflecting the limited appetite amongst investors for billion
sized loan portfolios.
By reducing the typical portfolio size, banks are able to
increase the target investor base. The resulting competition
combined with more selective portfolios means the typical
discounts are generally remaining at or below 50% for the
better performing loans and the trend for discounts across
the board has been reducing over the course of this year
(Figure 20). There are occasionally steeper discounts
applied on non-performing loans.
We see the continued use of loan sales by banks over the
course of this year, with a number of key portfolios
currently on the market. Some of these are more sizeable,
reflecting the desire of some banks to completely withdraw
from lending altogether or from specific markets (Table 2).
Although this does not remove the debt burden completely,
by transferring loans to more opportunistic funds, we
expect to see further writedowns across the banking sector
and the likelihood of an accelerated workout.
Figure 20
Growth in loan sales, EUR bn and discounts to face value
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
0
5
10
15
20
25
Cum. value of loans (LHS) Discount ─ Trend
Table 2
Key pending loan sales
Lender Size Comment
Co-Op £2.1bn UK loan book
Deutsche
Postbank
£2.5bn Mostly UK loan book
Eurohypo £4bn UK loan book
AIB £200m UK hotel loans
IBRC €18.7bn UK and Irish loans

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Dtz insight net debt funding gap june 2013

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