OIV world vitiviniculture situation in 2012
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Presentación "World Vitiviniculture situation in 2012" del XXXVI Congreso Mundial de la Viña y el Vino, celebrado en Burcarest en junio del 2013, patrocinado por la Organización Internacional de la Viña y el Vino (OIV).
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OIV world vitiviniculture situation in 2012
- 1. World Vitiviniculture situation in 2012 O.I.V.2013 XXXVIth World Congress of Vine and Wine Bucarest, 3rd June 2013 Federico Castellucci Director General
- 2. State of the vitiviniculture world market 2012 Surface area O.I.V.2013 Grape production & yield Wine Focus on wine trade
- 3. Surface area of vineyards • Surface area of world vineyards • European vineyards O.I.V.2013 • European vineyards • Southern Hemisphere & USA vineyards • Asian vineyards • Emerging vitiviniculture countries
- 4. Surface area of vineyards worldwide 7 900 8 100 8 300 1000 ha World surface area under vines 62.5% 56.0% Continentalevolution area under vines as % of global vineyard 2000-2012Europe O.I.V.2013 Source: OIV 7528 mha is the total worldwide area under vines in 2012 (including the areas under vines not yet in production or harvested). Surface are of vineyards continued to decline at a lower rate than that of the previous years. Between 2000 and 2012 it has decreased of – 319 mha, this decrease is mainly due to the reduction of European vineyards. 7 300 7 500 7 700 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Forecast 2012 19.4% 22.7% 12% 13% 4.3% 5.2% 2.0% 2.7% 2000 2012 Oceania Africa America Asia
- 5. European vineyards 1500 2000 2500 3000 35001000 ha Trends, 2000-2012 Portugal Italy France -12% -15% -3 % O.I.V.2013 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Forecast 2012 France Spain -17% -12% Source:OIV The period of 3 years (2008-2011) during which the EU offered permanent abandonment premiums for vineyards has ended: 2012 area under vines is the first in 4 campaigns that has not been marked by the influence of these premiums: 4216 mha (- 339.4 mha between 2007 and 2012).
- 6. Southern Hemisphere + USA vineyards 800 1000 1200 1400 1000 ha Trends, 2000-2012 SouthAfrica New Zealand Australia +21% +168% +5% O.I.V.2013 0 200 400 600 800 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Forecast 2012 Australia USA Chile Argentina +10% +18 % -1% Source: OIV In the Southern Hemisphere and USA, new vine-planting has continued: a relatively moderate increase of 0.3% in comparison with 2011.
- 7. Asian vineyards 800 1000 1200 14001000 ha Trends, 2000-2012 Iran+90% -18% O.I.V.2013 0 200 400 600 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Forecast 2012 Iran China Turkey -10% +90% Source:OIV With 1705 mha areas under vines, Asia continues to see its vineyards growing: +12 % between 2000 and 2012 (+122 mha).
- 8. USA 407 mha 1% China 570 mha 19% Portugal Italy RomaniaFrance Surface under vines 2012 Evolution in % 2008-2012 O.I.V.2013 Chile 205 mha 4% Argentina 221 mha -2% South Africa 131mha -1% Brazil 91 mha -1% New Zealand 37 mha 7% Australia 169 mha -2% Increase Stability Decrease Portugal 239 mha -3% Italy 769 mha -7% Spain 1018 mha -13% Romania 205 mha -1% France 800 mha -7% Hungary 64 mha -11% Greece 110 mha -4% Turkey 517 mha 1% Source: OIV
- 9. Surface area of vineyards has grown by 5% and more in the last 5 years Emerging vitiviniculture countries 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1000 ha Areaunder vines: evolution Peru India Brasil Egypt Canada O.I.V.2013 In addition to a rapid growth of an overall planted area…grape production growth is particularly significant 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% Canada Egypt Brazil India Peru Grape production:evolution 2000-2012 Growth rate 2000-2012 0 Source: OIV
- 10. These countries are getting more and more sensitive to the taste of wine 1000 hl 2007 Forecast 2012 Variation % India 120 150 25% Brazil 3254 3399 4% Peru 683 809 19% Wine consumption Emerging vitiviniculture countries O.I.V.2013 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Forecast2012 1000 hl Evolution of wine consumption India Brazil Peru Canada Peru 683 809 19% Canada 4018 4476 11% Source: OIV
- 11. Global grape production & Yield O.I.V.2013 Global grape production & Yield
- 12. Global grape production 800 1 000 Mql Worldgrapes production 62,5% 39,0% Continental evolutiongrapes prouction as % of global production 2000-2012 Europe O.I.V.2013 Source: OIV In 2012 world production of grapes (691 Mql) decreased: - 23 Mql between 2011-2012. An increased trend in grape production (+7%/2000), despite decrease in area under vines : this can be explained in part by an increase in yields. 200 400 600 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Forecast 2012 39,0% 19,4% 31,2% 12% 21% 4,3% 6,3% 2,0% 2,7% 2000 2012 Oceania Africa America Asia
- 13. Global grape production & Yield 80 100 120 140 160 Yield evolution (total grapes/total area including vines not in production yet) World Total Africa America Asia ql/ha O.I.V.2013 0 20 40 60 80 Asia Europe Oceania Source: OIV Yield is the measure of amount of grapes or wine produced per unit surface of vineyard: the trend has increased at world level to 91.7 ql/ha. Productivity is growing especially in the countries that produce non- fermented products and table grapes.
- 14. Major grapes producers: all usage -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% China Italy USA Growth rate 2000-2012 100 000 120 000 1000 ql Trends , 2000-2012 2000 2005 O.I.V.2013 Source: OIV Grapes production growth is particularly significant in Cina, India and Cile. Cina with 100 Mql produces the 14% of the world grapes production, followed by Italy (68.4 Mql, 10% of the world grapes production) and USA (66.3 Mql, 10% of the world grapes production). France Spain Cile India Argentina Iran World production 0 20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 China Italy USA France Spain Cile India Argentina Iran 2005 Forecast2012
- 15. Wine Production of wine • World production • Major producers O.I.V.2013 Consumption of wine • World consumption • Major consumers Focus on wine trade • World wine trade: value & volume • Top world Exportes • Top world IMporters
- 16. Wine production O.I.V.2013 • World wine production • Major producers
- 17. Europe 72.7% Asia 4.5% America 17.0% Africa 4.3% Oceania 3.1% Europe 62.3% Asia 6.9% America 19.8% Africa 5.1% Oceania 5.9% World production of wine State, 2000 State, 2012 O.I.V.2013 millions hl Source: OIV World wine production in 2012 is estimated at 251.7 Mhl. This is a low level especially for Europe, caused by the reduction in vineyards and poor weather conditions: -6% in comparison with 2011.
- 18. Major wine producers 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 1000 hl Trend, 2000-2012 2000 2005 Forecast 2012SouthAfrica Growth rate 2000-2012 O.I.V.2013 Source: OIV Within the EU, production may be described as very low: • France: 41.4 Mhl (-18%/2011) • Italy: 40 Mhl (-6%/2011) • Spain: 30.3 Mhl (-9%/2011) USA recorded a high level of wine production at 20.5 Mhl (+6.9%/2011). In South America, Chile recorded a new production record reaching 12.6 Mhl (+20%/2011), Argentina recorded a markedly reduced wine production (11.8 Mhl, -24%/2011). 0 10 000 20 000 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% Roumania France Spian Italy Brazil Greece World Total Germany Portugal Argentina USA China SouthAfrica
- 19. France 41422 mhl -3% Spain 30392 mhl -15% USA 515 mhl -1% Germany 9012 mhl -10% Russian Federation 6400 mhl -10% Portugal 6141 mhl 8% Hungary 1874 mhl -46% Bulgaria 1337 mhl -17% Romania 3311 mhl -36% China 14880 mhl 18% Production of wine in 2012 Evolution in % 2008-2012 O.I.V.2013 Increase Decrease Argentina 11778mhl -20% Australia 12660 mhl 2% Chile 12554 mhl 45% South Africa 1037 mhl -1% Brasil 2917mhl -21% New zeland 1940 mhl -5% -46% -17% Czech Rep. 470 mhl -44% -36% Italy 40060 mhl -15% Greece 3150 mhl -19% Source: OIV Stability
- 20. Wine consumption O.I.V.2013 • World consumption • Major consumers
- 21. World consumption of wine 210 230 250 270 290 millions of hl World wine Consumption 69.3% 62.0% Continental evolution total wine consumption as % of world consumption 2000-2012 Europe O.I.V.2013 2012 world wine consumption rose to 243.2 Mhl: a confirmed recovery of internal demand. Source: OIV 150 170 190 210 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Forecast 2012 62.0% 6.0% 10.0% 19.8% 22.0% 3.0% 3.0%1.9% 3.0% 2000 2012 Oceania Africa America Asia
- 22. Wine Consumption 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000 1000 hl Trend, 2000-2012 2000 2005 Forecast2012 Argentina Italy Spian Roumania Growth rate 2000-2012 O.I.V.2013 Source: OIV Countries that are historically big producers and consumers have reduced their level of consumption: • France (-12%/2000); • Italy (-27%/2000); • Spain (-34%/2000) 0 5 000 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% RussianFederation China Australia USA United Kingdom Chile World Total Brazil Greece Germany Portugal South Africa France Argentina Source:OIV USA is becoming the largest internal market in the world in terms of volume, internal consumption: 29 Mhl in 2012 (+37%/2000). Wine consumption is rising sharply in Asia: continued growth in China (+67%/2000).
- 23. Focus on Wine trade** • World wine trade: value & volume O.I.V.2013 *in collaboration with the Spanish Observatory of Wine Markets (OeMv) • World wine trade: value & volume • Top world Exportes • Top world IMporters NOTE: data for world trade are taken from GTA, which, in turn, take them from official administration bodies in more than 80 countries of the world. Not all countries are, therefore, included.
- 24. International wine trade According to data officially provided to the OIV in 2012 : world market, considered as the sum of exports from all countries reached 102.2 Mhl O.I.V.2013 102.2 Mhl world import stood at 97.9 Mhl Data for the special focus on world trade are taken from GTA, representing more than 80 countries.
- 25. 15 775 16 393 17 750 19 924 20 042 17 953 20 947 23 345 25 290 World wine trade in Euros and Litres Source: GTA, OIV,OeMv €/L Mill € Mill l. Less wine traded, though more expensive O.I.V.2013 2.27 2.30 2.12 2.19 2.13 2.14 2.17 2.20 2.29 2.08 2.23 2.32 2.55 13 767 14 166 14 964 15 259 15 775 16 393 6 066 6 157 7 061 6 958 7 413 7 643 8 197 9 048 8 749 8 614 9 385 10 073 9 903 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 World trade of wine and must increased in 2012 by 8.3% in value, up to 25.290 million Euros (exporters’ data) but fell by 1.7% in volume, to 99 Mhl, with average prices up by 10.2%
- 26. Changing the composition: value 9.0% 8.2% 7.8% 8.6% 9.2% 8.6% 8.6% 8.4% 9.2% 10.0% 9.7% 10.2% 11.0% Must Bulk + 2% O.I.V.2013 In value terms, since the beginning of the Century, Sparkling remains with the same share (around 17% of total), whereas 2 percentage points are exchanged between bottled wine (less) and wine sold in bulk (more). 16.9% 15.4% 16.2% 16.8% 17.1% 17.9% 18.6% 19.7% 19.9% 16.5% 16.7% 17.0% 17.1% 73.7% 76.1% 75.6% 74.3% 73.3% 73.2% 72.6% 71.6% 70.7% 73.1% 73.2% 72.4% 71.5% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Bulk Bottled Sparkling - 2.2%
- 27. Bottled and bulk categories: volume 60.1% 62.9% 64.5% 60.6% 59.9% 61.6% 59.4% 57.7% 57.7% 57.2% 56.8% 54.9% 55.4% Bottled O.I.V.2013 More clearly, in terms of volume where wine in bulk and containers above 2 l. are getting close to 38% of total market (up 3 percentage points since 2000), bottled wines reduce their share from 60% to 55% in the same period. 33.6% 30.9% 29.1% 32.6% 33.5% 32.0% 34.5% 35.8% 35.1% 36.1% 36.3% 37.8% 37.5% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Bulk
- 28. Top world Exporters Top wine world exporters 2011 2012 Variation 2011 2012 Variation 2011 2012 Variation France 7 194.1 7 836.6 8.9% 1 419.4 1 499.2 5.6% 5.07 5.23 3.1% Italy 4 404.7 4 690.6 6.5% 2 323.8 2 120.0 -8.8% 1.90 2.21 16.7% Spain 2 215.1 2 359.9 6.5% 2 254.9 1 947.2 -13.6% 0.98 1.21 23.4% Germany 981.4 973.7 -0.8% 415.1 396.0 -4.6% 2.36 2.46 4.0% Portugal 657.8 707.5 7.6% 307.6 338.6 10.1% 2.14 2.09 -2.3% Mill. € Mill. l. €/l 7.2% -6.2% 14.4% O.I.V.2013 Top wine exporters account for almost 90% of total value and more than 92% of total volume. With “traditional” producers growing in 2012 at a rate of 7.2% in Euros, versus 11.7% for “new” exporters. However, sales for the traditional producers decreased by 6.2% in volume whereas that of “new” producers increased last year by 6.4%.Similarly, export average prices grew faster in the “old world” (14.4%) than in the “new” (5%). Portugal 657.8 707.5 7.6% 307.6 338.6 10.1% 2.14 2.09 -2.3% Australia 1 426.7 1 523.7 6.8% 720.5 734.9 2.0% 1.98 2.07 4.7% Chile 1 220.5 1 399.5 14.7% 666.6 751.7 12.8% 1.83 1.86 1.7% USA 966.7 1 077.4 11.5% 421.8 400.9 -5.0% 2.29 2.69 17.3% New Zealand 646.5 767.0 18.6% 168.1 175.8 4.6% 3.85 4.36 13.5% Argentina 610.1 711.3 16.6% 317.1 364.7 15.0% 1.92 1.95 1.4% South Africa 541.8 566.1 4.5% 375.2 412.8 10.0% 1.44 1.37 -5.0% Rest of the world 2 479.4 2 676.7 8.0% 682.4 761.6 11.6% 3.63 3.51 -3.3% WORLD TOTAL 23 344.8 25 290.0 8.3% 10 072.6 9 903.3 -1.7% 2.32 2.55 10.2% 11.7% 6.4% 5%
- 29. Top 26 world importers of wine in terms of value (2012) account for 93% of world imports, divided into 5 major areas. Top world Importers TOTAL "OLD" TOTAL "NEW" Other exporters TOTAL WORLD import % total world imports Evolution in % 2011-12 United Kingdom 2 712.9 1 157.7 73.1 3 943.74 15.8% 13.6% Germany 1 934.9 330.7 128.0 2 393.55 9.6% 0.6% Netherlands 572.0 199.8 101.2 872.97 3.5% 4.6% Belgium 823.8 68.5 71.9 964.18 3.9% 4.4% France 412.8 84.2 134.3 631.26 2.5% 1.5% Sweden 320.2 160.1 60.7 540.93 2.2% 5.9% 2012 mill € Other top Rest World wine imports 2012: value O.I.V.2013 Sweden 320.2 160.1 60.7 540.93 2.2% 5.9% Denmark 333.4 128.6 36.6 498.65 2.0% -1.6% Italy 248.3 38.0 19.2 305.46 1.2% 2.5% Austria 187.9 15.2 4.5 207.55 0.8% 15.4% Ireland 111.0 113.6 22.6 247.15 1.0% 9.2% Finland 92.3 61.9 30.4 184.67 0.7% 5.1% Poland 123.0 20.8 35.4 179.16 0.7% 7.6% Tchek Republic 106.1 6.6 58.6 171.34 0.7% 4.0% Lithuania 141.1 4.0 18.1 163.21 0.7% 32.8% TOP EU 8 119.6 2 389.7 794.5 11 303.81 45.2% 6.8% Switzerland 823.8 70.2 33.0 926.98 3.7% 8.3% Norway 265.1 37.7 15.6 318.49 1.3% 10.4% Russia 517.4 96.5 203.7 817.51 3.3% 18.4% TOP OTHER EUROPE 1 606.3 204.4 252.3 2 062.98 8.3% 12.4% Other importers 1 026.1 437.9 206.4 1 670.3 6.7% 9.9% WORLD TOTAL 17 110.6 6 325.2 1 559.4 24 995.2 100.0% 9.8% EU RESTOF EUROPE North America 22.5% EU 45.2% Rest of Europe 8.3% Asia 14.5% Other top 2.8% Rest 6.7% With different developments last year, North America, non-EU Europe and Asia were the most dynamic in €uros.
- 30. Top 26 world importers of wine in terms of value (2012) account for 93% of world imports, divided into 5 major areas. Top world Importers TOTAL "OLD" TOTAL "NEW" Other exporters TOTAL WORLD import % total world imports Evolution in % 2011-12 USA 2625.2 1240.7 73.0 3938.96 15.8% 13.8% Canada 793.5 731.3 15.3 1540.16 6.2% 12.1% México 96.6 50.8 0.9 148.30 0.6% 9.9% N. AMERICA 3515.3 2022.8 89.3 5627.42 22.5% 13.2% China 800.7 397.4 31.8 1229.98 4.9% 18.5% 2012mill € NORTH AMERICA Other top 2.8% Rest World wine imports 2012: value O.I.V.2013 China 800.7 397.4 31.8 1229.98 4.9% 18.5% Japan 937.7 276.9 10.6 1225.15 4.9% 27.5% Hong Kong 517.3 144.6 145.0 806.97 3.2% -10.9% Singapour 278.5 71.9 19.3 369.70 1.5% 7.4% TOPASIA 2534.2 890.8 206.8 3631.79 14.5% 11.8% Australia 205.0 253.3 6.3 464.52 1.9% 21.8% Brazil 104.1 126.4 3.9 234.36 0.9% 10.6% OTHERTOP 309.1 379.7 10.1 698.88 2.8% 17.8% Otherimporters 1026.1 437.9 206.4 1670.3 6.7% 9.9% WORLDTOTAL 17110.6 6325.2 1559.4 24995.2 100.0% 9.8% OTHER MAJOR ASIA North America 22.5% EU 45.2% Rest of Europe 8.3% Asia 14.5% 2.8% Rest 6.7% With different developments last year, North America, non-EU Europe and Asia were the most dynamic in €uros.
- 31. Major groups (importers’ perspective) North America 1,589 mill Ltrs 16.7% of total Evolution 2011/2012: 11.9% EU 5,293 mill Ltrs 55.8% of total Evolution 2011/2012: : -3.9% Other Europe 763 mill Ltrs 8% of total Evolution 2011/2012: : -0.7% Asia 738 mill Ltrs 7.8% of total Evolution 2011/2012: O.I.V.2013 In regards to volume of imports, the EU remains the largest wine & must buyer despite a decrease in 2012, as opposed to North America and Asia. 2011/2012: 12.5%
- 32. Perspectives and trends Decline of surface areas (and production): will this trend continue? O.I.V.2013 (Slight) recovery of world consumption: notably outside Europe, the evolution is a positive one although 2008 levels have not yet been met. Decrease in available volume of export resulting in a reduction from the bulk wine, particularly for European producers.
- 33. Thank you for your attention Vielen Dank für Ihre Aufmerksamkeit O.I.V.2013 Grazie per la Loro attenzione Gracias por su atención Merci de votre attention