1. Energy for Tomorrow
Jose Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo
May,2012
1

2. Looking Ahead
• Rising energy consumption
Income growth
• Climate Change constraints
• Emerging countries demand
Energy Income
• Adjustment of primary efficiency distribution
sources of energy
• Oil, coal and natural gas
remain big Primary sources Energy
• Time cycle for renewables Substitution consumption
• New energy Geography
2

3. High energy consumption growth
• In spite of the OECD crisis, energy consumption rises at high rates (5.6% in
2010, the highest rate since 1973). Energy consumption in China grew by 11.2%.
• Coal consumption increased by
7.6% in 2010, also the highest
since 1973.
• Biofuels production globally
increased by 13.8%, led by the
U.S. at 17% and Brazil at 11.5%.
• Renewable energy for power
generation increased by
15.5%, led by wind power with an
increase of 22.7%.
• China had the highest growth
rate of renewable energy among
large countries at 74.5%.
Source:BP Statistical Review of World Energy 20113

4. 4

5. Crude Oil Imports
5

6. Energy Consumption Projections
2030 897.2 865.1 1821.5
North America
2025 937.3 891.4 1685.8
2020 964.5 897.8 1543.0 S & C America
2015 987.7 897.1 1405.8
Europe & Eurasia
2010 1039.7 922.9 1267.8
2005 1131.0 970.1 1144.5 Middle East
2000 1059.5 938.6 991.1
Africa
1995 951.2 945.4 863.2
1990 923.3 1130.6 660.2 Asia Pacific
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Source: BP Energy Outlook 2030 6

7. Energy Consumption by Primary Source 1990-2030
9 Total Liquids Consumption^
8
Total Natural Gas Consumption
7
6
Total Coal Consumption
5
4 Total Nuclear Energy Consumption
3
Total Hydroelectricity Consumption
2
1
Total Renewables Consumptionw
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Source: BP Energy Outlook 2030 7

8. 8

9. Difference between Expected Consumption and
Production by Primary Source 1990-2030
-250.0
-200.0
-150.0
-100.0
Liquids-Oil
-50.0
Nat Gas
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
coal
0.0
Nuclear
Hydro
50.0
Renewables+Biofuel
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
Source: BP Energy Outlook 2030 9

10. Big Expected Changes
10

11. Oil will combine excess
supply in the long run
and shortage in the
medium run.
Declining rates are key
variables
Reserves still strongly concentrated in areas
politically unstable or with big environmental
challenges
Source: http://ourfiniteworld.com/
11

12. Geopolitical change of oil production
Middle East is USA moves up
the main in gas and it is Offshore oil is
provider of oil the third in oil the new frontier
and Gas production
12

13. The cost of the new production
will determine the speed of
substitution for renewables
World oil demand and supply respond in
correlated way to price movements.
Source :
US oil supply remains lagging in response. http://www.forbes.com/sites/tomkonrad/2012/01/26/t
13
he-end-of-elastic-oil/2/

14. New role for South America and Brazil
Relation between Estimated
Undiscovered Resources and Proved
Reserves
200.0%
180.0%
160.0%
140.0%
120.0%
100.0%
80.0%
60.0%
40.0%
20.0%
0.0%
Brazil
Nigeria
Saudi Arabia
Iraq
United States
Iran
Russia
Venezuela
Kazakhstan
Libya
United Arab Emirates
Qatar
China
Kuwait
Canada
Source: US Congress. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R40872.pdf.
U.S. Geological Survey, World Petroleum Assessment, 2000,
Brazilian potential is the biggest,
Source: http://energyinsights.net said in 2000 the US Geological Survey
14

15. PRE-SALT
Pre-salt represents a large and relatively unexplored area
» Reserves totalling
billionsof barrels of
good quality oil
» In Dec/2011, Pre-salt
represented 7% of the
Company’s total
domestic oil
production
» The 3 producing wells
in Lula Pilot rank
among the 30 most
productive wells in
Brazil
15
e

16. BRAZILIAN BASINS
Highly productive SE basins are still under explored relatively to GoM
USA
Discoveries
Before 1984 – Shallow Water
Between1985-2001 – Deep Water
Between2002-2007 – Deep Water
Pre-salt Cluster
t
16
e

17. OIL PRODUCTION
With access to abundant reserves, Petrobras can more than double its production
6,418
142
246
1.120
3,993
125 + 35 Systems
180
2,575 2,614 618
2,386 2,516 +10 Post-Salt Projects
96 93 97
99 +8 Pre-Salt Projects 4,910
132 144 140
111 317 334 355
321 +1 Transferof Rights
’000 boe/day
3,070 845
Transferof Rights
1.855 1.971 2.004 2.022 Added Capacity
13
Oil: 2,300,000 bpd Pre-Salt 1,148
543
2008 2009 2010 2011 2015 2020
Oil Production - Brazil Natural Gas Production - Brazil Oil Production - International Natural Gas Production - International
•Maintain/growslowly traditionalexisting concessions, while growing from New Frontier – Pre-salt;
• Pre-Salt participationin the total productionwill enhancefrom the current2% to 18% in 2015 and 40.5% in 2020.
17

18. BRAZIL LEADERSHIP IN RECENT DISCOVERIES
Discoveries in Brazil represent 1/3 of all discoveries in the last 5 years
Net Changes in Non-OPEC Production Capacity Between
New Discoveries 2005-2010 Now and 2030 for Non-OPEC Countries
33,989 million bbl
19%
49%
32%
Brazil
OtherDiscoverie Deep-Waters
s
• In the last 5 years, more than 50% of the new discoveries(worldwide) were made in deep waters.
Brazil alone accounts for 62% of these discoveries.
• Projectionsindicate that as Brazil develops thesenewly discoveredreserves,it will lead non-OPEC
supply growthin the coming decades
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Source: PFC Energy

19. Risks of delivering oil until 2020
Brazilian
political Project
stability and International Management
regulatory Geo Political
conditions Conditions
Speed of new Financing
technology Constraints
deployment
for
Renewables
Risks
Small exploratory
Supply Chain Capacity risk and some
development risk
19

20. Wishful Thinking
Cheaper Renewables
primary become
sources of economically
energy feasible
Energy Better
efficiency rises sustainable
up world
20

21. BAHIA STATE
&
Energy and Mining
THE LAND OF ALL
Government of Bahia

29. Thank You!
Arigatou Gozaimashita!
BAHIA STATE PLANNING SECRETARY
www.seplan.ba.gov.br
www.youtube.com/tvseplan
Phone: +55 71 3115 3550