Colaboración para la revista internacional de analistas Foreknowledge

1. foreknowledge
Essential Resources for Intelligence Analysts
Issue Six
December 2012
www.foreknowledge.info
ISSN 2225-5613
Intelligence planning:
finding your way
through a sea of
puzzle pieces
Intelligence analyst
recruitment woes
Intelligence
analysis
research
2013 intelligence
conferences
A cool tool for your
Xmas stocking
Necesidades informativas
en la planeficación:
KIT’s and PIR’s

2. Contents
Editor:
Dalene Duvenage
From the editor
3
Intelligence planning: finding your way
through a sea of puzzles
4
Publisher:
4Knowledge Analysis Solutions
PO Box 40467
Know your client
Moreleta Park
Getting started checklist
Pretoria
Customer checklist
0044
Concept maps
South Africa
Problem restatement and redefinition
Contributions and advertising enquiries:
Necesidades informativas en la planeficación: KIT’s and PIR’s
editor@foreknowledge.info
Terms of reference
Role of analysis in criminal investigations:
the preliminary information assessment
10
A cool tool for your Xmas stocking!
11
Teaching intelligence analysts critical
thinking skills with learning agents
12
Meet Irene Bashabe from Uganda
13
Intelligence analyst recruitment woes
14
Psychology of intelligence analysis # 6
16
Recent published research in intelligence
analysis
18
News
20
Upcoming events
22
What does 2013 hold for Foreknowledge?
23
Advertise in Foreknowledge
24
All photo’s from Shutterstock
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Enforcement
Intelligence Units
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of Law Enforcement
Intelligence Analysts
2
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embodied in the contributions.
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and Intelligence
Analysts
Australian Institute
for Professional
Intelligence Officers
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December 2012 • Foreknowledge

3. from the editor
Editor: Dalene Duvenage, Pretoria, South Africa
A wonderful and blessed Festive Season to all our readers! I hope that 2013 will be a prosperous and
healthy year for you and your family and that you will achieve many good and worthy things. In our last
edition of this year, we share some tools and best practice on how to frame our understanding of an intelligence problem as part of the planning or direction phase of the intelligence process. We also have contributions on the recruitment of intelligence analysts, some IT tools, recent research in intelligence analysis and a
section on news and upcoming events.
We have published 6 editions of Foreknowledge this year and are grateful for the many well wishes and positive
feedback we receive. We would like to continue providing you with an excellent magazine and other resources that
serve the needs of intelligence professionals worldwide. We have many more ideas to make this project the go-to
for practitioners and scholars alike. Although we would have liked to keep distributing the e-magazine for free,
this business model is just not sustainable anymore. We are investigating various possibilities of future funding including subscriptions, donations and crowd funding. If you like what we are doing for the intelligence profes-
sion, and have an opinion about funding, please fill in this anonymous, 3 minute survey before 31 January
2013. You can access the survey at https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/foreknowledge. You are also welcome
to email me to make suggestions on how we can take Foreknowledge to new heights.
Dalene
Our contributors in this edition include intelligence professionals writing under pseudonyms as well these experts:
Richards Heuer is a
veteran intelligence
scholar and analyst.
He has written numerous books and
resides in Monterey,
California, USA. He gave us permission
to summarise his book, Psychology of
Intelligence Analysis.
December 2012 • Foreknowledge
Mario Eybers is a
mortgage fraud
analyst at First National Bank, Johannesburg, South Africa.
He has extensive experience as a crime intelligence analyst
both in the private and public sector.
Don McDowell (SCCA)
received awards for his
book Strategic Intelligence: a handbook for
practitioners, managers
and users, teaches intelligence analysis throughout the world, has a private intelligence
distance learning college and is a founding member and fellow of AIPIO. He is
from Pambula, NSW, Australia.
Juan Pablo Somiedo is
from Madrid, Spain
where he is a strategic
and competitive
intelligence specialist.
He runs a Spanish blog,
on intelligence related issues, Intel Times
here.
3

4. planning
Intelligence
Planning:
Finding
Your Way
through a
Sea of
Puzzle
Pieces
Dalene Duvenage
Foreknowledge Editor
Many intelligence professionals
will agree that we do not spend
enough time on the starting phase
of our intelligence task. The
reasons for this are manifold:
time pressures, an impatient
client, intellectual laziness or
arrogance or too many conflicting
priorities and pressures on our
limited resources etc.
The essentials of the first phase of
the intelligence “cycle” or
process, whether we call it
“direction”, “planning” or
“tasking”, remain the same:
determining who the client/s are
and their expectations,
understanding the intelligence
problem, knowing what we know
and don’t know, and frame all
these in time, cost and output
terms.
One step in the planning phase is
to understand the nature and
extent of the intelligence problem.
The puzzle metaphor1 is useful to
reflect on what intelligence
analysts experience every day.
I’ve tweaked and use it
extensively in training and
consulting to illustrate the
cognitive and organisational
4
processes involved in identifying
and solving an intelligence
problem.
A simple problem: finding
the missing puzzle piece
You’re working on an intelligence
problem of when and how many
calls your suspects made to each
other prior and after the crime.
It’s like building a puzzle, either a
small and easy or a large and
difficult one.
You’re working with knowables:
planning and collecting
information that have discernible
clues - you only need to know
where to find the missing pieces
and then fit them into each other
until the image is complete. Even
if you don’t cheat with a sampler
Pretoria, South Africa
of the final picture, you can still
get most the pieces and get a
pretty good idea of what
happened and what the image
might mean.
When planning with “puzzle”
intelligence problems, one should
be cautious not to fall in the
“more information is better” trap.
Due to time constraints, the
intelligence analyst should set a
strict timeframe to make a
judgement call, even if all the
puzzle pieces are not yet collected
and fitted.
Mysteries: a sea of puzzle
pieces
You’ve been tasked to analyse the
impact of youth unemployment
on a fragile country’s political,
military, economic and social
stability in the next 20 years.
It’s like rowing in a sea of millions
of puzzle pieces in different sizes,
colours and shapes, much like the
large ocean plastic pollution
patches. You have no idea where
land is, how far the puzzles pieces
stretch, what lies beneath the
December 2012 • Foreknowledge

5. planning
obvious or whether anyone else is
also in the same boat as you.
Even worse, some of the “debris”
are not puzzle pieces at all, but
some other form that you have
never seen before.
The easy way out is to say that
this is too difficult and capitulate
by not planning at all, hoping that
your client forgets this instruction
or that other more urgent or
operational needs overtake its
importance. Another way of
dealing with this type of problem
is to become fascinated with the
waves of data, often playing
around with fantastic big data
software tools. You can become
overwhelmed with the
information overload, and never
move beyond your paralysis to
proper analysis. Mysteries have
no easy answers - if at all. There
are just too many unknowable
variables and contingent
“unintended consequences”.
Sometimes what is missing is not
even in the form of a puzzle piece
but something totally different!
The intelligence analyst needs to
sense and project into the future
to frame the possibilities and
December 2012 • Foreknowledge
Planning for puzzle mysteries is complex it requires a balance between structured planning,
intuitive prodding to sense patterns and
collaboration across boundaries
uncertainties. Our work is to try
and identify those critical
variables, explain the dynamic
interactions and define future
possibilities.
In planning for mysteries, we
have to remember that we are
working with ambiguity and
uncertainty. Collecting more
information is not going to solve
this problem but confound it!
Planning for puzzle mysteries is
complex. It requires a balance
between structured planning
and intuitive prodding to sense
patterns. It also requires
collaboration between experts
and other role players and stake
holders. We need to tap other
people’s lenses and approaches to
work through the visible pieces,
and looking for those that are
beneath the surface.
In the following few pages, we
offer a few tools and approaches
that might assist you in planning
more effectively. •
Gregory Treverton coined the puzzle and
mystery metaphors in 2001 in Rethinking
Ntaional Intelligence for an Age of Information in
our bookstore here. Other articles on the topic
are here and here.
1
5

6. planning
Planning is an ongoing
process because we
adapt our frames as
we learn and
understand new
information.
Intelligence products
are snapshots of our
understanding of the
problem at a specific
time. It is never the
whole truth.
Engaging your client in
the intelligence
process makes sense.
Know your
client
1
Be aware of his context
What are the political and business
pressures he has to manage
everyday? Which stakeholders and
role players demand his energy and
attention? Who are waiting in the
wings in case he fails to deliver on
his mandate?
Getting started checklist
Richards Heuer and Randolph Pherson
From Structured Analytical Techniques for Intelligence Analysis (2011)
Available here
2
3
4
5
6
What keeps your client
awake at night?
What are those issues and priorities
that worry him? Make that your
focus! Speak to those fears and
put it into forewarning context.
Everyone wants to look
good
This does not mean that you should
pamper your client and keep bad
news away from him. Provide
explanations and options or
solutions. He would like to present
these to his client and look good.
Know his preferences
Provide your products in the
packaging and format that he
prefers. Regard every client
differently and market your products
accordingly. Yes, some of them
hate reading!
Educate your client
Your client needs to know what the
limitations of intelligence is and
what to expect. Don’t under or
overestimate his understanding of
the problem.
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
What has prompted the need for the analysis? For example: was
it a news report, new intelligence report, or a customer request?
What is the key intelligence question that needs to be answered?
Why is this issue important and how can analysis make a difference?
Has your organization ever answered this question or a similar
question before, and what was said? To whom was this analysis
delivered, and what has changed since that time?
Who is the principal customer? Are this customer’s needs well
understood? If not, try to gain a better understanding of the
customer’s needs and the style of reporting the customer likes.
Are there other stakeholders who would have an interest in the
answer to this question? Who might see the issue from a different perspective and prefer that a different question be answered? Consider meeting with others who see the question
from a different perspective.
Based on first impressions, what are all the possible answers to
this question? For example, what alternative explanations or
outcomes should be considered before making an analytic judgment on the issue?
Based on responses to the previous questions, consider rewording the key intelligence question. Consider adding subordinate or supplemental questions.
Generate a list of potential sources or streams of reporting to
be explored
Reach out and tap the experience and expertise of analysts in
other offices or organizations – both within and outside the
government – who are knowledgeable on this topic. For example, call a meeting or conduct a virtual meeting to brainstorm
relevant evidence and to develop a list of alternative hypotheses, driving forces, key indicators, or important players.
December 2012 • Foreknowledge

7. planning
CUSTOMER CHECKLIST
This checklist helps an analyst tailor the analytic product to the needs of the principal
customer. When used appropriately, it ensures that the product is of maximum possible
value to this customer.
Richards Heuer and Randolph Pherson
From Structured Analytical Techniques for
Intelligence Analysis (2011)
Available here
●
Who is the key person for whom the paper is being written?
●
●
Will this paper answer the question the customer asked or the
question the customer should be asking? If necessary, clarify
this before proceeding.
What is the customer’s level of tolerance for technical
language? How much detail would the customer expect? Can
the details be provided in appendices or backup papers?
●
Has any structured analytic technique been used? If so, how
has it been flagged in the paper? In a footnote? In an
appendix?
●
Would the customer expect the analyst to reach out to other
experts within or outside the Intelligence Community to tap
their expertise in drafting this paper? If this has been done,
how has their contribution been flagged in the paper? In a
footnote? In an appendix?
●
To whom or to what source might the customer turn for alternative views on this topic? What data or analysis might others
provide that could influence how the customer reacts to what
is being prepared in this paper?
●
What is the most important message to give this customer?
●
How is the customer expected to use this information?
●
How much time does the customer have to read this product?
How long should the paper be?
●
Is it possible to capture the essence of this paper in a few key
graphics?
●
What format would convey the information most effectively?
●
What classification is most appropriate for this paper? Is it
necessary to consider publishing the paper at more than one
classification level?
New!
CONCEPT MAPS
Concept map of the question: “What is the nature and threat of the use of YouTube by jihadists? and assess counter measures.” Mercyhurst University project here, here and here
Katherine Hibbs Pherson | Randolph H. Pherson
This user-friendly handbook outlines 20 key
questions that all analysts must ask themselves
as they prepare to conduct research, generate
hypotheses, evaluate information, draft papers,
and present analysis.
More info at:
www.pherson.org
Available now on:
BUY NOW!
December 2012 • Foreknowledge
Conceptual modelling, mindmaps, brainstorming, starbursting etc are all related
and share one goal: to externalise our thinking on all aspects, issues, factors that
relate to the intelligence problem. Once the concept map is drawn, it is easier to
identify assumptions, connecting issues ,information gaps and to prioritise.
7

8. planning
Problem restatement & redefinition
I don’t know what
intelligence I want,
but I’ll know when
I see it!
HENRY KISSINGER
All of us h a v e e x p e rie n c e o f
a c lie n t w h o h e a rd
s omet hing , s o m e w h e re a n d
is not s u re e x a c t ly w h a t
int elligen c e h e w a n t s . A
v ague req u ire m e n t is g iv e n ,
and t y pic a lly , y o u d o n o t
hav e ac c e s s t o c la rif y t h e
int ellig e n c e n e e d .
Problem re s t a t e m e n t is a
us ef ul t o o l t o f o c u s t h e
int elligen c e o p e ra t io n a n d
narrow do w n a ll is s u e s t o
t he c rux o f t h e m a t t e r what t he c lie n t n e e d t o
know now.
From Richards Heuer and Randolph
Pherson Structured Analytical Techniques for Intelligence Analysis (2011)
and Morgan D Jones The Thinker’s
Toolkit (1998)
Available here and here
Initial question
Is China selling ballistic missiles to Iran?
Paraphrase without losing the original meaning. It might provide a
better foundation for research and Is Iran buying ballistic missiles from China?
analysis to get the best answers to
the question.
Ask “Why”? Or “How?” Until the
real issue has surfaced.
Why would China sell ballistic missiles to Iran? Because
China seeks influence with Iran.
Why does China want influence with Iran? Because China wants to reduce US influence in the Persian Gulf region.
Why does China want to reduce US influence in the
Persian Gulf region? Because China wants to reduce the
US influence throughout the world?
Final Question: Is China’s sale of military equipment to the
Middle East as part of a worldwide strategy to reduce US
influence?
Broaden the focus: what other issues might be at play here? To
what is this connected?
Narrow the focus: break down the
issue further into component parts.
Redirect the focus: Shouldn’t we
rather focus on something else ?
Turn 180 degrees: Turn the issue
on its head and ask the opposite.
Is there a partnership between China and Iran?
What kinds of ballistic missiles are being sold by China to
Iran?
Why would Iran want Chinese missiles? How is Iran going
to pay for any purchased missiles?
Is China buying ballistic missiles from Iran?
Misconception: The key part of the intelligence process is the analysis of a specific set of data.
Reality: The process of “constructing a frame” is more important.
VAST2011 STUDY
Assess nee ds of th e
In te llig ence Commun ity
Id entif y p rob le m are as
Steps in the problem
definition phase
Defining the problem is the 1st phase in the
planning process. Throughout the conduct of
the overall project, the original problem may
be further refined and delineated. Problem
definition involves 2 major functions: defining
the problem and determining the feasibility
of the proposed approach for attackint the
problem.
Select ten ta tive top ics
De lin eate scop e-state:
Te rms of ref eren ce,
o peration al d ef initions,
a ssump tio ns, coord in ation
req uired , etc.
Ye s
No
Ye s
No
No
Are there
suf ficient
resourc es
a vailable ?
Ye s
No
8
Is th ere
suf ficient
manpower
a vailable ?
Ye s
Jerome Clauser : An Introduction to Intelligence Research
and Analysis (2008)
BUY NOW!
Can th e
prop osed ef fo rt
be completed in
the ti me
a vailable ?
Are suf ficien t
funds
a vailable ?
Yes
Is the p ropo sed
e ff ort within the
capabi lit ies o f
the research er?
Y es
Sch ed ule
su bseq uen t eve nts
Download PDF here
December 2012 • Foreknowledge

9. planning
Necesidades Informativas en la Planificación:
KIT’s and PIR’s
Juan Pablo Somiedo
La fase de dirección y planeamiento es la más importante del ciclo de
inteligencia, pues configura todas las demás fases. Las áreas
estratégicas se fijan de modo conjunto por los responsables del servicio de inteligencia y de los órganos
políticos. Se asesora así a los decisores políticos a la hora de establecer las áreas estratégicas
ayudándoles en las lagunas y las
incertidumbres que puedan tener.
El secretario de defensa de los Estados Unidos durante la administración de George W. Bush,
Donald Rumsfeld, reflejó bien esta
incertidumbre cuando dijo en una
entrevista: “We don´t know what
we don´t know”. Por eso la interacción entre el usuario y el director de inteligencia es sumamente
importante pero igualmente difícil
por razones de tiempo, distancia,
dificultades burocráticas y disparidad de rango y funciones.
Terms of Reference
La definición de las necesidades de
información es la parte más importante del proceso y, a menudo, no
es tan simple como pudiera parecer. Las KIT,s o necesidades críticas
de información suelen formularse
en forma de pregunta y podrán
variar conforme el decidor va perfilando su plan. A partir de estas
necesidades críticas, el personal de
inteligencia desarrolla las necesi-
dades prioritarias de información o
PIR,s. Una vez seleccionadas las
PIR,s se procede a asignar personal
y recursos a cada una y a establecer
un calendario y un orden de prioridad con los plazos de entrega.
Se elabora el ICP o Intelligence Collection Plan, que es un plan para
recopilar información de todas las
fuentes disponibles para dar respuesta a las necesidades mediante
la transformación de dichas necesidades en peticiones a los órganos y
medios de obtención de información adecuados.
Finalmente, el documento que contiene todos los aspectos mencionados relativos al planeamiento de
inteligencia es el Plan de Inteligencia o PLINT. En él vienen referidos
la evaluación de la situación, la lista de las PIR,s, su delimitación espacial o temática y la estructura y
arquitectura de inteligencia.
Juan Pablo Somiedo is from Madrid, Spain.
He is strategic and competitive intelligence
specialist. He runs a Spanish blog, Intel Times here
When embarking on a comprehensive intelligence operation, it
is always useful to compile a Terms of Reference (ToR). It defines the boundaries of the scope. Include the following:
● State the problem and aim
● State the assumptions/background relating to the subject matter
● State the hypotheses
● Formulate operational definitions where necessary
● Propose a title
● Describe briefly the methodology to be used in collection and analysis
● Describe sources of information
● Indicate time frames
● Indicate resource allocation
● Indicate stake holders and clients of the study
Mercyhurst University Wiki projects ToR samples here
December 2012 • Foreknowledge
9

10. need2share
The role of
analysis in
criminal
investigations
Part 3: the Preliminary
Information Assessment
Mario Eybers
I
n the previous two articles’ we
focused on the role of analysis
in criminal investigations. We
looked at some characteristics of
criminal investigations and
projects that are not truly intelligence driven and also discussed
those factors that contribute to a
successful intelligence or analytical driven investigation. There
was also some discussion around
score card measuring to evaluate
the effectiveness of the information analysis approach during an
investigation.
In this article we will be focusing
on Preliminary Information Assessments and the importance of
conducting an initial assessment
of information before project kickoff.
Prior to any formal investigation
or project meetings, the analyst
should be given the opportunity
to assess all available information.
Potential participants in the investigation should also be afforded
the opportunity to supply available information to the analyst.
Such an assessment would:
• assist with the scope and demarcation of the problem;
• identify potential information
gaps;
10
• afford everybody an opportunity to review available information;
The table below provides more
detail that can be considered for
each of these focus areas.
• serve as a departure point for
discussion and investigation
planning; and
The initial assessment of information needs to be documented,
preferably in the form of a presentation by the analyst utilising supporting material such as the
criminal value chains and scenarios.
• assist in structuring subsequent
intelligence and investigation
activities.
This initial assessment should focus on one or more of the following items: 1) Available
information, 2) overview of the
threat, 3) any information gaps
that might exist, 4) criminal cases
registered 5) applicable legislation
that can be considered by the investigative team and 6) available
resources.
Note that this initial assessment of
information generally does not
include any form of analysis and
provides only for a general overview of the status quo. Specific analytical products for the project or
investigation will be developed
once the analytical and investigation plans are approved by the investigating officer or project team.
Focus Areas for the Information Assessment
Available information
Overview of the threat
● A description of available information
● Sources and suppliers of information
● Types of information such as incident type information, confessions, as well as the format in
which this information was supplied
● Information that is available but
not yet collected for assessment
● Extent of the problem or threat
at hand
● Probable risk and exposure to the
public and private sector
● Reported and perceived modus
operandi
● Geographical location of threat
● List of potential targets and
groups where applicable
Criminal cases
Legislation
● Overview of criminal cases already opened
● Investigation and prosecution
status of the criminal cases
● Potential targets identified
● Lists of individuals arrested
Information gaps
● List of information gaps
identified
● Potential sources of
information
Resources
● Applicable legislation available to
prosecution
● Criminal charges which may be
considered at a later stage
● Potential jurisdictional issues.
● List of units or investigating officers currently dealing with
the threat
● List of prosecutors currently
prosecuting on the threat
● List of private sector organisations and individuals
December 2012 • Foreknowledge

11. IT tools
A cool tool for
your Xmas
stocking!
Visual Understanding Environment
RJG
I
was staring out of my office
window yesterday in wonder
of the slopes of Table Mountain,
silently contemplating another
hot and sunny not-so-white
Christmas… Dean Martin melodiously blaring ”Rudolph the Red
Nosed Reindeer” out of my
iPod…..wondering what old Santa has in store for my old stocking
this year. My daydreaming was
rudely interrupted by some of the
analyst staff debating…or shall I
say partaking in heated analytical
discourse regarding the benefits
of tools for mapping out one’s
thoughts or externalizing complex questions. The discussion
reminded me of an eggnog procession deliberating the benefits
of free range organic eggs together with bourbon, cognac or brandy.
In the spirit of the approaching
festive season, the editor, fully
aware of my propensity for daydreaming to the tunes of Messrs
Davis Jnr, Martin and Sinatra
(“The Lady is a Tramp” humming
in the background), sent me a
URL to an interesting
website….check it out here! Visual Understanding Environment or
VUE for short. It is available for
Windows, Linux and Mac operating systems……and…in the spirit
December 2012 • Foreknowledge
of the festive season…decidedly
open source! At first I was expecting a piece of software similar to
most mind or concept mapping
software. As luck would have it,
I was pleasantly surprised – no
garden gnomes or trolls here! It
was pure witchcraft and a good
sprinkle of good old black magic!!
● RSS feeds may be imported
and visualized
● CVS files can be imported
and joined allowing for
semi-automatic linking and
clustering of data
● Seasr content analysis within VUE
● Search functionality allows
for querying nodes and
links and results can be
highlighted, hidden or filtered.
● VUE allows dynamic addition and searching of repositories such as Fedora, Flickr,
JStor, Museum of Fine Arts
Boston, PubMed (NCBI),
Sakai, and Wikipedia to
name a few
Apart from obvious mapping
functionality the following additional tools are available within
the software:
● VUE allows for the construction of interactive presentations with the ability to
zoom any node to full
screen mode
● Dynamic Content Mapping
which facilitates adding
content to maps that aid
discovery and understanding via annotation of information
So…When You're smiling….VUE
in addition is OKI (Open Knowledge Initiative) compliant allowing for the above mentioned
searching of digital repositories. It
also utilizes the open Calais web
service for entity extraction of information in nodes….now Ain’t
That A Kick In The Head!
Well what do you know…before
the moon hits your eye like a big
pizza pie it’ll be 2013. Peace and
joy to you all over the festive season. Volare! •
11

12. IT tools
Teaching Intelligence Analysts Critical Thinking Skills
with learning agents
Juan Pablo Somiedo
E
l método LTA es un método
creado a propósito para el
análisis de inteligencia. Recoge y
sintetiza aportaciones de la inteligencia artificial, del jurista
John Wigmore, el filosofo de la
ciencia Stephen Toulmin y el profesor David Schum. Se aproxima
a la resolución de problemas mediante la doble díada ProblemaReducción/ Solución-Síntesis, que
es un aterrizaje de las representaciones de Inteligencia Artificial.
Hasta ahora reemplazar la experiencia analítica acumulada por los
analistas senior una vez que éstos
dejaban su puesto o se retiraban
era dificultoso, largo y muy costoso. El método LTA intenta ser
una ayuda para que los analistas
Junior se adapten más deprisa. El
método se utilizó con éxito en la
Escuela Superior de Guerra de los
EE.UU y en varios experimentos
con analistas.
El mismo nombre del método
(Disciple se traduce por Discípulo) sugiere que el analista junior
aprende sobre análisis a través de
su interacción con la experiencia
de otro analista. Y esto es, en efecto, lo que hace LTA. Trata de poner a disposición del analista junior
la experiencia directa de los
analistas expertos. Disciple-LTA
es la base de un agente de software innovador para la enseñanza de los analistas de inteligencia.
Este agente, llamado TIACRITIS
(Teaching Intelligence Analysts
Critical Thinking Skills) contiene
estudios de casos y una enorme
cantidad de conocimiento sobre
evidencias, argumentos y sus
propiedades. Es un agente que
ayuda a los analistas junior a adquirir los conocimientos, destrezas y habilidades propias de su
profesión. Los analistas practican
y aprenden a vincular las eviden-
cias con las hipótesis a través del
razonamiento abductivo, deductivo e inductivo y a establecer las
credenciales básicas de la evidencia como son credibilidad y relevancia.
El uso de TIACRITIS en los cursos
de análisis de inteligencia se hace
con el apoyo de un libro de texto
que incluye una amplia gama de
ejemplos de la utilización del software y ejercicios prácticos de
análisis. En la actualidad el profesor Mihai Boicu de la George Mason University es considerado
una autoridad en este método e
imparte clases de Disciple LTA
dentro del Curso de "Aplicaciones
Militares de Inteligencia Artificial". También lo es el profesor
David Schum, que de igual forma
imparte clases en la misma universidad y es un experto en lógica
y probabilidad aplicadas al análisis en inteligencia. •
George Mason University developed the
TIACRITIS web agent and textbook for
teaching intelligence analysts the critical
thinking skills needed to perform evidence-based reasoning. They are based
on a computational theory which views
Intelligence Analysis as ceaseless discovery of evidence, hypotheses, and arguments, in a complex world that is
changing all the time. TIACRITIS helps
students learn about the properties, uses, and marshalling of evidence upon
which all analyses rest, through regular
practice involving analyses of evidence in
both hypothetical and real situations.
Read more here, here and here
12
December 2012 • Foreknowledge

13. people
Meet Irene Bashabe
Manager: Intelligence, Tax Investigations Department, Uganda Revenue Authority
What is the role and function of
intelligence analysts in the Uganda Revenue Authority (URA)?
The Intelligence division aims at
proactively deterring tax crime
whilst supporting the internal as
well as external stakeholders, focusing on an intelligence led Tax
compliance approach.
The role and function of the intelligence analyst in URA is;
● Develop an understanding of
a problem or threat at hand;
● Select appropriate analytic
techniques such as link analysis, flow analysis, financial
record analysis, telephone toll
analysis among others;
● Analyse (process; correlate,
select, evaluate and restructure) information gathered
from multiple sources, including tax criminal related information;
● Prepare reports detailing intelligence findings and disseminate to clients appropriately.
Who are your clients and what
type of products do you provide
to them?
Our intelligence products are disseminated to either the customers
who initiated the intelligence requirement or any other stakeholder for whom intelligence has been
proactively generated. The clients
are both Internal (within the organisation) and external (Outside
the organization) including Uganda Revenue Authority Management and staff, other government
agencies as well as other tax and
revenue agencies.
Our products are:
● Target Profiles;
● Strategic Briefs;
● Current Intelligence;
● Management Executive Committee Briefs;
● Commissioner’s Briefs;
● Manager’s briefs
● Threat Analysis;
● Problem Profiles
Ivory confiscated by URA in June 2012
● Derive insights and provide
estimates;
● Identify intelligence gaps &
threats;
● Maintain analysis systems
necessary to review, store, collate, retrieve and disseminate
revenue intelligence;
December 2012 • Foreknowledge
What is your specialist area and
what do you do to stay informed
and abreast of new developments?
● Collection and analysis of tax
related information with a
criminal bias
● Training and subscribing to
professional bodies in the intelligence field.
● Holding stakeholder
engagements/partnerships
with organisations, bodies
and persons related to intelligence.
Cigarette smuggling is the URA’s main tax
evasion problem.
What are the greatest challenges
you face as an intelligence analyst
and how do you overcome them?
We face several challenges as law
enforcement Intelligence analysts
and among these are;
● Putting into place a proactive
based intelligence collection
and analysis functionality;
● Integrity of the information
collected from both internal
and external sources;
● The application of intelligence
analysis techniques in the
course of our work
● Effectively managing required
Intelligence tasks given limited human resources at hand.
What can intelligence analysts do
to promote our profession?
● Development of an Intelligence Analyst Curriculum
which we have commenced.
● Keeping abreast of the best
practices and developments
in the intelligence field. •
13

14. opinion
Intelligence analyst
recruitment woes
Don McDowell
Managers should take ownership of
the recruitment process
T
here was a time when, as the
senior manager of a large intelligence unit, I really looked forward to the recruitment exercises
we ran regularly, both for analysts
and intelligence officers/collectors.
I say this in the past tense simply
because I don’t have much enthusiasm or even optimism for intelligence staff recruitment activity
these days.
Now, I am not a senior manager
any more; I have become a global
consultant who advises agencies
on several continents on everything and anything to do with intelligence and risk analysis
practice. And to watch them –
sometimes – bumble around with
a lack of clarity and purpose de-
spite the plethora of new-age recruitment guidelines, is a sight not
to enjoy.
Recruitment is a serious business
with laudable goals. We can usually agree on why we need new
people: for replacement or further
development of our resource pool
of analysts and collectors. But it
has become increasingly more difficult to engage managers and supervisors globally in meaningful
dialogue about exactly what
they’re looking for.
Much is written in intelligence literature on the criteria, traits and
qualities, education and knowledge, that might or should be applicable. No shortage there.
However, getting those in powerful positions to be able to articulate the nexus between one or
more such criteria and how they
impact on expected job performance, is far more difficult.
The exercise should in fact be easy
and, in essence, it is: use the same
suite of approaches applied in any
“needs survey” activity.
Shutterstock
14
Shutterstock
Don McDowell has nearly 50 years
experience in military, national
security and law enforcement
intelligence. He is the author of the
award-winning Strategic Intelligence:
a handbook for practitioners,
managers and users, a Fellow of
AIPIO, former Presdient of AIPIO
and former International Director
of IAFIE. He runs a private intelligence distance learning college and
training consultancy from Pambula,
NSW, Australia.
See more here and here
Identify what you expect of your
analysts – not in vague, generic,
comfort-zone terms, but in finite
detail – based on an expert understanding of precisely what it is
that analysts and collectors actually do.
Then, and only then, determine
what qualities the new recruit
needs to bring to the job or, conversely, what skills and techniques could actually be taught to
them once in the job.
The added cost of this latter approach is twofold: firstly, develop
selection criteria that imply an
December 2012 • Foreknowledge

15. opinion
ability to learn new competencies;
secondly, accept your organisation’s responsibility to provide the
learning environment and opportunities for the new recruits.
Where we seem to start to go
wrong or, at least “under-achieve”
in the recruitment activity cycle, is
to increasingly rely on Human Resource specialists within or outside
of the organisation to cull applicants, pre-select those for further
consideration, and even conduct
the short-list interview.
Having spent much of my life becoming and then applying skills in
interviewing and interrogation
techniques, one lesson remains
dominant in my recollection. The
interviewer (whoever it is) cannot
rely solely on skills as an interviewer … these must, without any
doubt, be back up by solid knowledge of the field for which one is
interviewing. Frankly, I have only
occasionally met HR specialists
Shutterstock
Very few HR recruitment personnel
really understand the requirements of
intelligence analysis
who know much, if anything,
about the life and routines that
face analysts and collectors.
It is increasingly commonplace in
a difficult world economic environment for jobs in intelligence
and risk analysis to attract hundreds or even thousands of applicants.
This phenomenon is in part fed by
the plethora of developing academic courses and technical programs available for career path
development in several continents,
though not all. Good though this
may be, it does regularly provide
an increasing pool of people
“trained” (though not necessarily
tested or experienced) in intelligence-related functions, all eventually hoping to gain a paid
position.
Recognising this reality, many HR
and similar recruitment specialist
agencies find it easy to identify
possession of an academic qualification in analysis, criminology,
criminal justice or the like, as a
convenient threshold for weeding
out a large proportion of would-be
recruits. It is clearly shown by assessing vacancy notices that many
agencies prefer to set the bar high,
perhaps at a Master’s Degree level
A post graduate degree does not
equate intelligence analysis
proficiency.
or even higher, with the expectation that the short-list numbers
will drop to a manageable level,
and that all applicants will quite
possibly be of a high quality in
view of their qualifications.
All this, without any demonstrably rigorous examination of the
various curricula, the quality of
the applicants’ awards, the realism of their assignment challenges, nor of their individual results
when seen against the expectations of a future job.
My advice? Return back to basics
and conduct for yourself a proper
Needs Survey. Who do you need?
To do what? Which skills, techniques and competencies rank as
essential, should-haves and couldhaves? What can be taught inhouse as opposed to hoping to
buy in everything you need?
Get this right first and, only then,
consider how to match your needs
in finite detail against what the
employment market can offer.
Short-listing for the sake of having
a limited number to finally consider for selection is understandable. But doing so using the artifice
of pre-qualification – unless it is in
and of itself absolutely essential –
is delusional.
You may well have cut out of the
mix people who have lots to offer.
Conversely, you may well include
in the short-list mix those who are
good students, perhaps excellent,
but who have not yet demonstrated any ability to take their place in
your workforce.
Think it over carefully ! •
December 2012 • Foreknowledge
15

16. thinking
Psychology
of
intelligence
analysis
Richards Heuer
There are still thousands of intelligence analysts and their managers who have not yet read the seminal Psychology of Intelligence Analysis by Richards Heuer. We will carry excerpts from the book’s chapters in each edition of Foreknowledge.
This is an excerpt of chapter 4 on Strategies for Analytical Judgment - comparing with historic situations. You can also
download the entire book here.
Comparison with Historical
Situations
A third approach for going beyond the available information is
comparison. An analyst seeks understanding of current events by
comparing them with historical
precedents in the same country,
or with similar events in other
countries.
Analogy is one form of comparison. When an historical situation
is deemed comparable to current
circumstances, analysts use their
understanding of the historical
precedent to fill gaps in their understanding of the current situation.
Unknown elements of the present
are assumed to be the same as
known elements of the historical
precedent. Thus, analysts reason
that the same forces are at work,
that the outcome of the present
16
situation is likely to be similar to
the outcome of the historical situation, or that a certain policy is
required in order to avoid the
same outcome as in the past.
Comparison differs from situational logic in that the present situation is interpreted in the light
of a more or less explicit conceptual model that is created by
looking at similar situations in
other times or places.
It differs from theoretical analysis
in that this conceptual model is
based on a single case or only a
few cases, rather than on many
similar cases. Comparison may
also be used to generate theory,
but this is a more narrow kind of
theorizing that cannot be validated nearly as well as generalizations inferred from many
comparable cases.
Reasoning by comparison is a
convenient shortcut, one chosen
when neither data nor theory are
available for the other analytical
strategies, or simply because it is
easier and less time-consuming
than a more detailed analysis.
A careful comparative analysis starts by specifying key
elements of the present situation.
The analyst then seeks out one or
more historical precedents that
may shed light on the present.
Frequently, however, a historical
precedent may be so vivid and
powerful that it imposes itself
upon a person's thinking from
the outset, conditioning them to
perceive the present primarily in
terms of its similarity to the past.
This is reasoning by analogy. As
Robert Jervis noted, "historical
analogies often precede, rather
December 2012 • Foreknowledge

17. thinking
than follow, a careful analysis of a
situation."
The tendency to relate contemporary events to earlier events as a
guide to understanding is a powerful one. Comparison helps
achieve understanding by reducing the unfamiliar to the familiar.
In the absence of data required for
a full understanding of the current situation, reasoning by comparison may be the only
alternative.
Anyone taking this approach,
however, should be aware of the
significant potential for error. This
course is an implicit admission of
the lack of sufficient information
to understand the present situation in its own right, and lack of
relevant theory to relate the
Comparison
helps achieve understanding by
reducing the unfamiliar to the
familiar
present situation to many other
comparable situations
The difficulty, of course, is in being certain that two situations are
truly comparable. Because they
are equivalent in some respects,
there is a tendency to reason as
though they were equivalent in all
respects, and to assume that the
current situation will have the
same or similar outcome as the
historical situation.
This is a valid assumption only
when based on in-depth analysis
of both the current situation and
the historical precedent to ensure
that they are actually comparable
in all relevant respects.
Ernest May found that because of
reasoning by analogy, US policymakers tend to be one generation
December 2012 • Foreknowledge
behind, determined to avoid the
mistakes of the previous generation. They pursue the policies that
would have been most appropriate in the historical situation but
are not necessarily well adapted
to the current one.
Policymakers in the 1930s, for instance, viewed the international
situation as analogous to that before World War I. Consequently,
they followed a policy of isolation
that would have been appropriate
for preventing American involvement in the first World War but
failed to prevent the second.
Communist aggression after
World War II was seen as analogous to Nazi aggression, leading
to a policy of containment that
could have prevented World War
II.
More recently, the Vietnam analogy has been used repeatedly over
many years to argue against an
activist US foreign policy. For example, some used the Vietnam
analogy to argue against US participation in the Gulf War - a
flawed analogy because the operating terrain over which battles
were fought was completely different in Kuwait/Iraq and much
more in our favor there as compared with Vietnam.
May argues that policymakers often perceive problems in terms of
analogies with the past, but that
they ordinarily use history badly:
“When resorting to an analogy,
they tend to seize upon the first
that comes to mind. They do not
research more widely. Nor do
they pause to analyze the case,
test its fitness, or even ask in what
ways it might be misleading.”1
As compared with policymakers,
intelligence analysts have more
time available to "analyze rather
than analogize."
Intelligence analysts tend to be
good historians, with a large
number of historical precedents
available for recall. The greater
the number of potential analogues
an analyst has at his or her disposal, the greater the likelihood of
selecting an appropriate one.
The greater the depth of an analyst's knowledge, the greater the
chances the analyst will perceive
the differences as well as the similarities between two situations.
Even under the best of circumstances, however, inferences
based on comparison with a single analogous situation probably
are more prone to error than most
other forms of inference.
The most productive uses of comparative analysis are to suggest
The most productive
uses of comparative
analysis are to
suggest hypotheses
and to highlight differences, not to draw
conclusions.
hypotheses and to highlight differences, not to draw conclusions.
Comparison can suggest the presence or the influence of variables
that are not readily apparent in
the current situation, or stimulate
the imagination to conceive explanations or possible outcomes that
might not otherwise occur to the
analyst.
In short, comparison can generate
hypotheses that then guide the
search for additional information
to confirm or refute these hypotheses. It should not, however, form
the basis for conclusions unless
thorough analysis of both situations has confirmed they are indeed comparable.
Ernest May, `Lessons' of the Past: The Use
and Misuse of History in American Foreign Policy (New York: Oxford University Press, 1973).
1
17

18. Research
RECENT PUBLISHED RESEARCH
IN INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS
Organisational culture
and intelligence analysis
Nicolas Paul Hare and Paul Collinson,
(2012), Organisational culture and intelligence analysis: A perspective from
senior managers in the Defence Intelligence Assessments Staff in Public Policy and Administration 31 October,
2012 $ here
We highlight some key elements of the
organisational culture of structures engaged in all-source intelligence analysis
and draw on a preliminary survey of a
small cadre of senior managers in the
Defence Intelligence Assessments Staff
(DIAS). This suggests that DIAS has a
strong identity and value system, and
that it is introspective and somewhat
averse to change. Physical and demographic isolation, and intrinsic factors
such as the nature of the job and the
personalities attracted to it also play a
part. The continued impetus towards a
more customer-facing culture appears
to carry both costs and benefits in terms
of the kinds of tasks at which the organisation is likely to excel. •
18
Structuring intelligence
organisations
Extended participation in
intelligence production
Andrew D. Brunatti, (2012), The architecture of community: Intelligence
community management in Australia,
Canada and New Zealand in Public
Policy and Administration 26 November 31, 2012 $ here
Kira Vrist Rønn (2012), Democratizing
Strategic Intelligence? On the feasibility of an objective, decision-making
framework when assessing threats and
harms of organized crime in Policing
23 November 2012 $ here
The study of the interdepartmental architecture that is meant to coordinate
intelligence communities has been peripheral at best. This is especially true
in the case of smaller states, such as
Australia, Canada and New Zealand.
Examination of the development of intelligence community management architecture in these countries reveals that
actors in all three communities recognise networks of interdependency between them. However the extent to
which they are able to exploit these interdependencies is dependent on larger
dynamics in government, supporting
the idea that intelligence communities
can only be as cohesive as the governments they serve allow them to be. •
In this article, I focus on methodologies
used for threat and harm assessments
of organized crime. I present three general and interrelated objections concerning this endeavour: (1) conceptual
vagueness, (2) inherent subjectivity,
and (3) incommensurability. I introduce
two types of suggestions for how to
overcome these objections: categorical
and conditional suggestions. I argue
that a participatory approach to the
methodology of threat and harm assessments, via inclusion of interests and
values from an extended peer-community, e.g. when designing methodologies, may render strategic intelligence
more reliable. •
December 2012 • Foreknowledge

19. Research
What is published in
intelligence?
Miron Varouhakis (2013), What is Being
Published in Intelligence? A Study of
Two Scholarly Journals in International
Journal of Intelligence and Counter
Intelligence Volume 26, Issue 1, 2013
here
A total of 924 articles that were published since 1992 in the CIA’s unclassified Studies in Intelligence and the
International Journal of Intelligence and
Counter Intelligence were reviewed to
map out a geography of knowledge
gaps and identify underdeveloped research areas that are fertile for growth.
The study shows how slow and difficult it has been to bring scholastic study
of intelligence into the public domain.
One finding was that the two journals
only published 59 articles (6.4%) with
an intelligence analysis focus. •
Please assist
with my
research!
Jean Perois, CPP, PSP writes:
Assessing Uncertainty in
Intelligence
I am currently enrolled in a
PhD programme with the University of Leicester (UK) in Political Science/ International
Relations. The title of my thesis
is: What realism from which
future? A search for an international security forecasting model.
Phong H. Nguyen, Supporting Analytical Reasoning and Presentation with
Analytic Provenance. Middlesex University. Paper here
Analytic provenance research tries to
understand a user’s reasoning process
by examining their interactions with a
visual analytic system. Visual analytics
is the science of analytical reasoning
facilitated by interactive visual interfaces. Besides understanding the user’s
reasoning process, many benefits can
also be gained from analytic provenance such as recalling the analysis
process, reusing performed analyses,
supporting evidence in constructing the
reasoning process, and facilitating
I test the capacity of Realism –
the oldest and most prominent
theoretical paradigm in international relations – to provide the
best framework for international affairs forecasting.
This article addresses the challenge of
managing uncertainty when producing
estimative intelligence. Much of the
theory and practice of estimative intelligence aims to eliminate or reduce uncertainty, but this is often impossible or
infeasible. This article instead argues
that the goal of estimative intelligence
should be to assess uncertainty.
Supporting Analytical
Reasoning
Jeffrey A. Friedman and Richard Zeckhauser (2012), Assessing Uncertainty in
Intelligence, HKS Faculty Research
Working Paper Series RWP12-027,
John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University here
● How forecasting practitioners perceive the constraints surrounding the
search for an international
security forecasting model,
By drawing on a body of nearly 400 declassified National Intelligence Estimates as well as prominent texts on
analytic tradecraft, this article argues
that current tradecraft methods attempt
to eliminate uncertainty in ways that
can impede the accuracy, clarity, and
utility of estimative intelligence. By
contrast, a focus on assessing uncertainty suggests solutions to these problems
and provides a promising analytic
framework for thinking about estimative intelligence in general. •
I would like Foreknowledge
readers to contribute to my thesis by completing the anonymous 20 minute survey here to
answer the following questions:
● The nature of the forces
and variables acting on the
model and how to weigh
them,
● The importance of personal biases and assumptions
in simulated interactions,
and
● Whether analysts/ forecasters think that such a
model is achievable or simply too complex to envision.
The survey can be accessed
on
https://www.surveymonkey.co
m/s/Forecasters.
All participants will be entitled
to a copy of the results, so you
might also benefit from it!
Thank you in advance for your
participation.
collaboration between colleagues including dissemination, discussion and
presentation. •
December 2012 • Foreknowledge
19

20. nice2know
Pentagon’s mobile
intel centre
The US Defense Department’s
Domestic Mobile Integrated GeospatialIntelligence System (DMIGS), is a 44foot long vehicle shaped a bit like a fire
truck. It carries generators and a 2.4meter wide satellite dish antenna and
has room for up to six analysts to work.
They can update the Homeland
Security Infrastructure Program (HSIP),
a common operational baseline of
geospatial data, with the data coming in
for people on-site. This information is
then sent out to the mobile devices of
emergency response teams so they
can have a clearer picture of what
challenges lie ahead of them. It was
used during the recent Hurricane
Sandy.
Mercyhurst’s Kris
Wheaton designs game to
mitigate cognitive biases
Kristan Wheaton, associate professor of
intelligence studies at Mercyhurst
University designed a tabletop game
which identifies and mitigates the six
biases that he considers the “worst” for
intelligence analysts. In “The Mind’s Lie,”
players examine a scenario and then
participate in one or more rounds of
voting in order to determine the bias most
clearly present in the scenario. We will
keep you updated on the marketing of the
game. More here.
International award to
UK intelligence analyst
The National Geospatial
Intelligence Agency’s intelligence
analysts and their technical
specialists provided most of the
support to civil authorities during
the recent Hurricane Sandy
disaster. They took photos,
infrared and other data from
satellites and air planes and built
them into remarkably detailed
and accurate maps. The maps
also mean that police and firemen
know what they are likely to
encounter when they arrive on
the scene, whether it's simple
flooding, damaged buildings and
ruined or blocked roads.
Read more here
20
Amy Parsons, an
intelligence analyst
with the Major
Investigation
Department of
Staffordshire
Police, UK, received an award from the
International Association of Women
Police (IAWP) this year for her
excellent work in contributing to
securing guilty convictions. Her
comprehensive storybook that brought
together all the strands of evidence into
a shooting case was lauded by High
Court Judge, Sir Timothy Holroyd as
“the best that I have ever seen in my
many years as a judge”. See more
here and here.
Read the US National
Intelligence Council’s
2030 Global Trends
Report here that provides
a conceptual framework
to look at the future and
what this might mean for
the intelligence
community. They identify
4 megatrends, 6 game
changers and 4 future
worlds or possible
scenarios. Might assist
you with your strategic
analysis!
December 2012 • Foreknowledge

21. nice2know
The 7 Habits of Highly
Successful Intelligence
Analysts
From Digimind.com
Be Organized and Disciplined
Today, we still live largely in
the world where intelligence
is defined as “secrets;” tomorrow,
we will either embrace a new
understanding of intelligence and
knowledge, or risk marginalizing
analysts from this century’s
knowledge revolution and hence
fail to serve policy makers as
effectively as possible.
Intelligence and National Security Alliance
Rebalance Taskforce Report October 2012
here
Great analysts must have the discipline to
approach each task in an orderly and
scientific manner so they can reproduce the
results and show what led them to their
conclusions.
Communicate with Confidence,
Clarity and Credibility
Present thoughts or ideas in a clear and
concise manner so that the untrained can
understand what is being presented.
Find Meaningful Patterns in
Meaningless Noise
Project the patterns that emerge forward and
predict, within a reasonable accuracy, what
will happen next or at some time in the future.
Adopt a Patient, Methodical
Approach
1
2
3
4
Have the vision to see patterns develop early
in the process and wait until the pattern
becomes clear before announcing it.
See the Bigger Picture
Climate change as an
intelligence priority
Despite “climate change” being identified
as one of the main future intelligence
threats in the next decade (here), the CIA
closed its Center on Climate Change and
National Security in November 2012.
The CIA stated that “work continues to be
performed by a dedicated team in a new
office that looks at economic and energy
matters affecting America’s national
security.” The CIA relies mainly on
scientists such as the Board on
Environmental Change and Society to
assist in this task. See their report here
They are not afraid to stick by their
convictions when the odd outlying data point
seems to throw the pattern off. They
recognize it for what it is and factor it into the
overall picture.
Be Flexible and Responsive to
Change
5
6
They can recognize when they are headed
down the wrong path and have the foresight
to change direction when the pattern deviates
from what is expected due to unforeseen
forces or events.
Learn from Mistakes
They recognize when they have erred and are
free to admit they got it wrong. They learn
from experience and experience is what you
get when you don’t get it right the first time.
7
Intel analysis chief
accused of subversion
The Gambian National Intelligence Agency’s Analysis Director Ousman Bojang
has been detained for several months and
is accused of agreeing to provide a sketch
plan of pres Jammeh’s residences to Gambian dissidents. Jammeh is accused of fabricating coup stories against members of
the security forces to sow seeds of discord amongst service chiefs for his own
political survival. See more here
December 2012 • Foreknowledge
21

22. events
April 2013
January 2013
Brunel University
Seminar:
International
Studies
Association Annual
Convention
Intelligence and
the cyber
environment
2-6 April 2013
San Francisco, US
25-26 January 2013
Uxbridge, England
Information here
Information here
IALEIA/LEIU
Annual Training
Conference
8-12 April 2013
Chicago, US
Information here
discuss
May 2013
share
Aberystwyth
University CIISS
Conference
Past, present and
future of
Intelligence
collabo
rate
July 2
013
23-25 May 2013
Gregynog Hall,
Wales, UK
Information here
International
Association for
Intelligence
Education
Conference
Deadline for submissions
15 February 2013
Australian Institute
for Professional
Intelligence Officers
(AIPIO)
24-26 July 2013
Canberra, Australia
Information here
20-23 May 2013
El Paso, Texas, US
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22
December 2012 • Foreknowledge

23. WHAT DOES 2013
HOLD FOR
FOREKNOWLEDGE?
Do our survey!
WE WOULD LIKE TO CONTINUE THE E-MAGAZINE AND EVEN EXTEND OUR OFFERINGS ON THE
WEBSITE..
Foreknowledge e-magazine has established itself the last year as the essential resource for intelligence analysts
over the world. However, we need an annual operating budget of at least US$30,000 to continue and embark
on new initiatives to make this truly the hub of all things related to intelligence analysis. Please take the time to
do our anonymous online survey by 31 January 2013. The results will assist us to strategise the way forward.
Any suggestions?
Contact editor here!
December 2012 • Foreknowledge
Do our
survey
here!
23

24. Advertise in Foreknowledge!
Intelligence research and
analysis services on Africa’s
political, economic and
criminal threats
Reach your target market of 1000’s intelligence
professionals throughout the world!
***
Publishers of
Foreknowledge magazine
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Assistance with establishing
intelligence units
***
Intelligence information
management and systems
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Intelligence training &
curriculum development to
more than 70 military,
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Circulation
Our 4 editions already had thousands of readers
reached through the following marketing streams:
● As a PDF to our existing database of 1500
intelligence professionals, managers, scholars,
students etc all over the world who distribute
it further in their agencies and companies,
running the readership into tens of thousands.
● Our website: 11,500 visits from 106 countries
since 1 February 2012
● 23,000 readers of the Flash version of the emagazine.
● Our endorsing professional organizations’
members-only list serves and communication
channels.
● The Pass-On Rate from these contact persons
within agencies to their colleagues runs into
the tens of thousands. Due to our profession’s
secrecy protocols, it is impossible to gauge the
exact number of readers.
Rates from $1000 for full
page to $200 for smalls!
Get our media pack here
Contact Dalene Duvenage at
editor@foreknowledge.info
www.4knowledge.co.za
24
December 2012 • Foreknowledge