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Capital Markets Research
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Nov 22, 2011
Thai Stock Market                                                                     Nov 21                   ChangeUS Market                             Nov 21        Change
SET Index                                                                             965.07                    -19.09
                                                                                                                     Dow Jones                           11,547.31           -248.85
Market Turnover (Bt mn)                                                            20,829.37                   -637.82
                                                                                                                     S&P 500                              1,192.98             -22.67
Foreign Net Position (Bt mn)                                                        -1,599.53                  +270.05
                                                                                                                     Nasdaq                               2,523.14             -49.36
Thai Bond Market                                                                      Nov 21                   ChangeUS 10 yr T-note (%)                       1.96          +1.0 bp
Total Return Index                                                                     210.51                  +206.63
                                                                                                                     US 2yr T-note (%)                         0.27           -0.5 bp
                                                                                                                     NYMEX crude ($/b)                       96.92              -0.49
TGB Yield curve     1m                      3m        6m                                          1yr        2yr       3yr       5yr        7yr     10yr       12yr   14yr       18yr
Nov 21                   3.41              3.34      3.31                                        3.25       3.22     3.23       3.26      3.35      3.42       3.54   3.62       3.75
Chng 1D (bp)               +0                +0        +0                                          -1         +0        -1        +0         -1       +1         +0     +1         +0
Chng 5D (bp)               -2                +3         -2                                         -3         -3        -1        +0         +0       +0         +0     +0         +0
Interbank Rates             Nov 22             Nov 18                                              BIBOR          1w         1m          2m        3m       6m       9m        1yr
Overnight (%)                 3.50            3.38-3.51                                            Nov 21      3.50000     3.49667 3.49889 3.50000 3.51333 3.51889 3.52667
Repurchase Rates             1-day                7-day                                            14-day           1m           SIBOR          1m              3m         6m
Nov 21                     3.50000               3.50000                                           3.47290           -           Nov 21       0.25828        0.48250     0.69111
THBFIX (Ref.)      1m                2m            3m                                          6m         9m        1yr          LIBOR          1m              3m         6m
Nov 21           3.14807           2.72707       2.64479                                     2.74029 2.75354 2.78257             Nov 21       0.25667        0.49500     0.70611
Swap THB/THB                                            1yr                 2yr              3yr                                 4yr                         5yr              7yr           10yr
  Nov 22    Bid/Ask                                     2.73/2.78           2.71/2.76    2.83/2.88                               2.99/3.04                   3.11/3.15        3.28/3.33     3.47/3.52
KBank Counter Rates                                                    Buying                                                   Selling                      Forward Premium(satangs/month)
(against THB)                                      Sight Bill                    T/T                                             T/T                              Export/Import
USD                                                    30.97                        31.07                                          31.32                             3.52/14.40
EUR                                                   41.6888                      41.8238                                        42.3788                            2.54/15.70
GBP                                                   48.3588                      48.5150                                        49.1125                            5.44/15.35
JPY                                                    0.3996                      0.4010                                          0.4085                            5.42/16.99
KBank Technical Analysis                              Nov 22                 Nov 21            Support                             Resistance                    Trend           Strategy
USD/THB (Onshore)                                      31.16                  31.24           30.10                                31.30                        Sideway Buy USD near support
USD/JPY                                                77.09                  76.89           76.70                                82.60                        Sideway Buy USD near support
EUR/USD                                                1.3505                1.3489          1.3470                                1.3540                       SidewaySell EUR near resistance

Note: This table is primarily for the purpose of providing information. It is advisable that you contact us prior to quotations.




                                                                                      Macro and Market Outlook
                     •   Thai economy in the third quarter expanded by 0.5% qoq or 3.5% yoy, which is lower than the
                         consensus forecast at 4.5% yoy
                     •   DJIA dropped 2.11% mainly owing to unsettled agreement within the Super Committee over the
                         plan to reduce the US budget deficit amounted $1.2trn
                     •   Sharp decline in stock markets provoked investors to sell gold so as to cover loss in stocks;
                         gold price dropped to below $1,670/oz last night before rebounding to above the 1,680 level


                                                                                                      FX Market Wrap
                    •    EUR/USD touched last week’s low of 1.3421 as stock markets in the region slumped and
                         Moody’s warned that France could lose the AAA rating if its borrowing costs continue to rise
                    •    USD/THB rose quickly yesterday after breaking past through a strong resistance of 31.05. The
                         collapse in global gold prices could have added to the demand for the dollar



                                                                                     News Update from the Web
                    •    Foreign bank deposits at the Federal Reserve have more than doubled to $715 billion from $350
                         billion since the end of 2010 amid Europe’s debt turmoil, buttressing the dollar’s status as the
                         world’s reserve currency
                         Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721) via K-BIZ
                         Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours



                                www.twitter.com/KBankFX                                     www.facebook.com/KBankFX




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1
For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Nov 22, 2011

                  Macro and Market Outlook                                                                                                 US Treasuries and Thai rates
    Thai economy in the third quarter expanded by 0.5% qoq                                                                       (Source: Bloomberg) Treasuries snapped a gain from
    or 3.5% yoy, which is lower than the consensus forecast at                                                                   yesterday as the U.S. prepared to sell $35 billion of five-
    4.5% yoy. The economy grew from the second quarter                                                                           year notes today, with the auction poised to draw a record
    when industry encountered shortage of raw materials as a                                                                     low yield. Benchmark 10-year rates were little changed at
    result of tsunami in Japan. Major contributions of economic                                                                  1.97 percent of 9:48 a.m. in Tokyo, according to Bloomberg
    growth are net exports and private consumption. NESDB                                                                        Bond Trader prices. Treasuries rallied yesterday as
    revised its GDP estimates for this year to grow at 1.5% for                                                                  investors sought safety amid U.S. budget gridlock and a
    the whole year down from 3.5-4.0% due to 2.3%                                                                                debt crisis in Europe.
    contraction from the flood. Kasikorn Research Center
    projected the economy to grow at 1.7%.                                                                                       The U.S. Congress budget committee’s failure to reach a
                                                                                                                                 deficit-reduction agreement puts into motion $1.2 trillion in
       % yoy/ contribution                                                                                                       spending cuts over 10 years. Government debt in Spain
       15                                                                                                                        and Italy declined yesterday on concern the region’s
                                                                                                                                 leaders will struggle to convince investors they can pay
       10
                                                                                                                                 their debts.
         5
                                                                                                                                    %
         0                                                                                                                          5.0
                                                                                                                                    4.5
        -5
                                                  Priv ate consumption                      Gov ernment C onsumption                4.0
      -10                                         Gross fix ed capital formation            Inv entory change                       3.5
                                                  N et ex ports                             GDP y oy                                3.0
      -15
                                                                                                                                    2.5
               1Q09               3Q09               1Q10                  3Q10               1Q11                   3Q11
                                                                                                                                    2.0
                                                                                                                                    1.5
    Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped 2.11%                                                                                 May-11                        Jul-11                        Sep-11                       Nov-11
    mainly owing to unsettled agreement within the Super
                                                                                                                                                           10yr Treasury yield                              30yr Treasury yield
    Committee over the plan to reduce the US budget deficit
    amounted $1.2trn. The plan is supposed to combine
    spending cuts with tax increases; however, if the super
                                                                                                                                 Thai interest rate: Bond yields were almost unchanged
    committee could not reach an agreement, the automatic
                                                                                                                                 on Monday. 2-year yield remained at 3.22%, 5-year at
    spending cuts will apply. President Obama is seen to veto
                                                                                                                                 3.26% and 10-year at 3.42%.
    the automatic spending cuts. Reducing the role of the
    government in stimulating the ailing US economy is likely to
                                                                                                                                 According to Thai BMA’s data update, foreign investors
    lead to a long period of economic slow down. Apart from
                                                                                                                                 were net buyers of about THB5.1bn worth of bonds last
    the US budget conflicts, investors were worried about the
                                                                                                                                 week. Yet, their share in the market remained relatively low
    debt crisis in the eurozone that could spread to France,
                                                                                                                                 compared to earlier periods. With the rapid weakening of
    inducing them to liquidate risky assets and hold more US
                                                                                                                                 Thai baht this week, we expects foreign purchases to be
    dollar. France is seen to risk its AAA rating if the
                                                                                                                                 weaker this week and there could be a net-selling.
    government tries to inject capital so as to help its
                                                                                                                                     %
    commercial banks reduce losses from holding PIIGS
                                                                                                                                     7.3
    bonds. French banks have high exposure on Italy bonds,
    which could trigger bank crisis if Italy fails to honor the                                                                      6.8
    loans. French bond yields rose precipitously.
                                                                                                                                     6.3

       13000                                                                                                    72                   5.8

       12500                                                                                                    74                   5.3

       12000                                                                                                                         4.8
                                                                                                                76
                                                                                                                                       Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11                 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11
       11500
                                                                                                                78                                                   foreign holding share of total outstanding
       11000

       10500                                                                                                    80
                                                                                                                                 The weaker-than-expected economic growth in Q3
       10000                                                                                                    82
           Jan-11            Mar-11          May-11               Jul-11           Sep-11          Nov-11
                                                                                                                                 reinforces the expectation that the Bank of Thailand may
                                                                                                                                 need to cut more than just 25bp of its policy rate to secure
               Dow Jones Industrial (left axis)         DXY - US dollar index (right axis - inverted)                            a quick rebound of economic activities, although there are
                                                                                                                                 some concerns for near-term inflationary pressure.
    Sharp decline in stock markets provoked investors to sell                                                                    However, we expect that medium-term inflationary
    gold so as to cover loss in stocks. Gold price dropped to                                                                    pressure would be lessened by several factors, mainly the
    below $1,670/oz last night before rebounding to above the                                                                    global economic slowdown. Today, the Thai cabinet will
    1,680 level.                                                                                                                 discuss postponing the wage increase deadline by another
                                                                                                                                 3 months in Greater Bangkok (including 5 other provinces)
                                                                                                                                 and Phuket. For the other 70 provinces, the 300 baht
                                                                                                                                 minimum wage may be applied around Jan 1, 2013.
                                                                                                                                 Moreover, Internal Trade Department of the MOC will be
                                                                                                                                 negotiating with business operators to reduce prices in
                                                                                                                                 flood-affected areas as well.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                             Nov 22, 2011

                                              FX Wrap                                                                                                                   Currency Movement
                                                                                                                                                              Mon 21-Nov-11                  Fri 18-Nov-11                 % Change
       90.0                                                                                                                                                      31.11                           30.98                      +0.42
                                                                                                                                       USD/THB
       87.5
                                                                                                                                       USD/JPY                      76.93                         76.85                       +0.10
       85.0
                                                                                                                                      EUR/USD                       1.349                         1.351                        -0.12
       82.5
                                                                                                                                      GBP/USD                      1.5642                        1.5791                        -0.94
       80.0

       77.5                                                                                                                           USD/CHF                      0.9170                        0.9173                        -0.03
       75.0                                                                                                                           USD/SGD                      1.3043                        1.2985                       +0.45
       72.5                                                                                                                           USD/TWD                       30.33                         30.25                       +0.26
           Jan-10         May -10            Sep-10         Jan-11          May -11          Sep-11
                                                                                                                                      USD/KRW                      1,143.0                      1,138.5                       +0.40
                      Dollar Index (DXY)               200-day mvg avg                 60-day mvg avg                                 USD/PHP                       43.31                         43.39                        -0.18
                                                                                                                                       USD/IDR                      9,150                         9,085                       +0.72
    The dollar index touched its 6-week high on Monday on the
                                                                                                                                      USD/MYR                       3.182                         3.160                       +0.70
    back of worries regarding European debt problems and
    expectation of weaker U.S. growth after the U.S. House                                                                            USD/CNY                       6.360                         6.357                       +0.06
    budget “Super Committee” failed to finalise on fiscal                                                                          Source: Reuters
    spending plans. EUR/USD touched last week’s low of                                                                                                               .FX Consensus Forecast
    1.3421 before closing at 1.349 yesterday as stock markets
                                                                                                                                                                 Spot               Dec 2011             Jun 2012              Dec 2012
    in the region slumped and Moody’s warned France that if
    yields (its borrowing costs) continue to rise, it would risk                                                                       USD/THB                  31.20                 30.50                30.00                 29.50
    losing the AAA credit rating.                                                                                                      USD/JPY                  77.17                 77.00                78.00                 80.00
     114                                                                                                80                            EUR/USD                  1.3488                  1.35                 1.35                  1.39
     112                                                                                                                              GBP/USD                  1.5644                  1.57                 1.58                  1.61
                                                                                                        79
     110
                                                                                                                                      USD/CNY                   6.371                 6.310                6.190                 6.080
     108                                                                                                78
                                                                                                                                      USD/SGD                  1.3025                  1.27                 1.23                  1.19
     106                                                                                                77
                                                                                                                                       USD/IDR                  9,035                 8,950                8,600                 8,588
     104
                                                                                                        76                            USD/MYR                    3.18                  3.13                 3.03                  2.98
     102
     100                                                                                                75                            USD/PHP                   43.26                 43.00                42.50                 41.50
       16-Aug                        16-Sep                      16-Oct                     16-Nov
                                                                                                                                      USD/KRW                   1,145                 1,130                1,075                 1,050
                                       EUR/JPY (LHS)                             USD/JPY
                                                                                                                                      USD/TWD                   30.28                 30.00                29.50                 29.00

    USD/JPY rebounded slightly to close at 76.93 on Monday                                                                            AUD/USD                    0.99                  1.01                 1.02                  1.05
    and continues to trade higher to wards 77.20 today,                                                                               USD/CHF                    0.92                  0.91                 0.91                  0.92
    breaking past its 30-day average at 77.11. Partly, demand                                                                      Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB
    in the yen as a substitute for the dollar (both are safe
    havens) declined, after Moody’s and S&P affirmed U.S.                                                                                                              Currency Pair Targets
    credit ratings. Yet, comments from the two rating agencies                                                                                                   Spot               Dec 2011             Jun 2012              Dec 2012
    do differ with the latter saying that the Super Committee’s                                                                        USD/THB                  31.20                30.50                30.00                 29.5
    failure reflected that their downgrade of the U.S. in August
                                                                                                                                       JPYTHB                   40.43                 39.61                38.46                 36.88
    made good sense.
                                                                                                                                       EURTHB                   42.08                 41.18                40.50                 41.01
    USD/THB rose quickly yesterday after breaking past
                                                                                                                                       GBP/THB                  48.81                 47.89                47.40                 47.50
    through a strong resistance of 31.05 (large trading volumes
    above 31.00). The collapse in global gold prices could have                                                                        CNY/THB                   4.90                  4.83                 4.85                  4.85
    added to the demand for the dollar as local investors saw                                                                          AUD/THB                  30.76                 30.81                30.60                 30.98
    opportunities to purchase gold at a cheaper price.
    USD/THB later closed 0.13 higher to 31.11.                                                                                         CHF/THB                  34.00                 33.52                32.97                 32.07
                                                                                                                                      SGD/THB                   23.95                 24.02                24.39                 24.79
       31.40
                                                                                                                                   Source: KBank, Bloomberg
       31.20
       31.00
                                                                                                                                 KBank NEER Index
       30.80
       30.60                                                                                                                     Current                                                                         98.28
       30.40                                                                                                                     YTD                                                                           + 5.54%
       30.20
                                                                                                                                 vs 52 weeks ago                                                               - 3.43%
       30.00
       29.80                                                                                                                     vs 1mth ago                                                                   + 0.00%
       29.60                                                                                                                     vs 1 week ago                                                                 + 0.00%
            16-Jul                  16-Aug              16-Sep               16-Oct               16-Nov
                                                                                                                                 vs 1 day ago                                                                  + 0.00%
                                    USD/THB                      USD/THB 30day mov avg
                                                                                                                                 vs long term average                                                         + 10.07%
                                                                                                                                 Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange
                                                                                                                                 rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade
                                                                                                                                 competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         3
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Nov 22, 2011

         Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized                                                                                                 Auction results of BoT Bill                                                                             Nov 18
    Yield shift (bps)         -40       -30        -20           -10           0            +10         +20             +30       +40                                                                                                                                Bid-
                                                                                                                                                                                          Tenor               Amt.                  Accepted
         LB123A               3.64      3.57       3.51          3.44        3.37           3.31        3.24            3.17      2.86                       Symbol                                                                                 Avg. Yield (%) coverage
                                                                                                                                                                                           (yrs)             (Bt mn)                Range (%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     ratio
          LB12NA              4.63      4.31       4.00          3.68        3.37           3.06        2.74            2.43      1.86
                                                                                                                                                             CB11D07A                     0.04               65,000                3.340-3.365         3.3508        0.95
           LB133A             5.06      4.61       4.16          3.71        3.26           2.81        2.36            1.91      1.21
           LB137A             5.54      4.98       4.41          3.85        3.28           2.72        2.15            1.59      0.77                       Source: ThaiBMA
          LB13OA              5.96      5.29       4.61          3.94        3.27           2.59        1.92            1.24      0.32                       Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds
           LB143A             6.39      5.61       4.83          4.06        3.28           2.50        1.73            0.95      -0.08                                                   Tenor               Amt.
                                                                                                                                                             Symbol                                                               Auction Date      Maturity Date Remark
           LB145A             6.77      5.89       5.01          4.13        3.26           2.38        1.50            0.62      -0.51                                                    (yrs)             (Bt mn)
           LB145B             6.68      5.82       4.96          4.11        3.25           2.39        1.53            0.68      -0.43                      BOT152A                      4.00               65,000                 22-Nov-11         24-Feb-11       -
          LB14DA              7.58      6.50       5.43          4.36        3.29           2.21        1.14            0.07      -1.26                      CB11D22C                     0.08               30,000                  22-Nov-11       22-Dec-11        -
           LB155A             8.27      7.01       5.76          4.50        3.25           1.99        0.74            -0.52 -2.02                          CB12223B                     0.25               15,000                 22-Nov-11         23-Feb-12       -
           LB157A             8.11      6.90       5.69          4.48        3.27           2.05        0.84            -0.37 -1.83                          CB12524A                     0.50               17,000                 22-Nov-11        24-May-12        -
          LB15DA              8.99      7.55       6.11          4.68        3.24           1.80        0.36            -1.07 -2.76
                                                                                                                                                             Source: ThaiBMA
           LB167A             9.64      8.05       6.47          4.88        3.30           1.71        0.13            -1.46 -3.29
          LB16NA              10.29 8.54           6.80          5.05        3.31           1.56       -0.18 -1.93 -3.92                                     * No LB auction in December
           LB171A             10.24 8.51           6.79          5.06        3.33           1.61       -0.12 -1.84 -3.82
           LB175A             10.76 8.90           7.05          5.20        3.34           1.49       -0.36 -2.21 -4.31
           LB183A             12.03 9.87           7.71          5.56        3.40           1.25       -0.91 -3.06 -5.47
           LB183B             11.80 9.70           7.60          5.50        3.40           1.30       -0.79 -2.89 -5.24
           LB191A             12.58 10.29 7.99                   5.70        3.40           1.11       -1.18 -3.47 -6.01
           LB196A             13.51 10.99 8.47                   5.95        3.43           0.92       -1.60 -4.12 -6.88
           LB198A             13.34 10.86 8.39                   5.92        3.45           0.97       -1.50 -3.97 -6.68
          LB19DA              13.86 11.26 8.66                   6.06        3.46           0.86       -1.74 -4.33 -7.18
           LB213A             15.05 12.16 9.26                   6.37        3.48           0.59       -2.30 -5.19 -8.32
           LB214A             14.93 12.07 9.21                   6.34        3.48           0.63       -2.23 -5.09 -8.19
          LB22NA              17.00 13.63 10.26 6.89                         3.52           0.16       -3.21 -6.57 -10.18
           LB233A             17.11 13.72 10.33 6.94                         3.56           0.17       -3.21 -6.59 -10.23
           LB236A             18.18 14.53 10.87 7.22                         3.57           -0.08 -3.72 -7.37 -11.26
           LB244A             18.69 14.91 11.14 7.37                         3.60           -0.17 -3.94 -7.70 -11.71
          LB24DA              19.01 15.16 11.31 7.46                         3.61           -0.23 -4.07 -7.92 -12.01
           LB267A             19.66 15.67 11.68 7.69                         3.70           -0.28 -4.27 -8.25 -12.48
           LB283A             21.41 16.99 12.57 8.16                         3.75           -0.66 -5.07 -9.47 -14.13
           LB296A             22.76 18.01 13.26 8.52                         3.78           -0.96 -5.69 -10.42 -15.40
           LB383A             27.96 21.96 15.96 9.97                         3.98           -2.00 -7.98 -13.96 -20.17
           LB396A             28.80 22.60 16.40 10.22 4.03                                  -2.14 -8.31 -14.48 -20.89
          Average             12.83 10.48 8.14                   5.79        3.45           1.11       -1.24 -3.58 -6.17
    Source: KBank, Bloomberg



            KBank Rich – Cheap Model                                                                                                                                                                                    Weekly update Nov 21st
                                 Bps (actual YTM vs. model)
                                     20.00

                                     15.00

                                     10.00

                                      5.00

                                      0.00

                                     -5.00

                                    -10.00

                                    -15.00                                                                                                                                                                                        3 mth avg
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Now
                                    -20.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  LB296A
                                               LB123A

                                                        LB133A

                                                                 LB137A

                                                                          LB145B

                                                                                   LB14DA

                                                                                             LB155A

                                                                                                      LB15DA

                                                                                                               LB167A

                                                                                                                         LB16NA

                                                                                                                                  LB175A

                                                                                                                                           LB183B

                                                                                                                                                    LB191A

                                                                                                                                                               LB196A

                                                                                                                                                                        LB198A

                                                                                                                                                                                 LB19DA

                                                                                                                                                                                           LB213A

                                                                                                                                                                                                    LB24DA

                                                                                                                                                                                                               LB267A

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         LB283A



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           LB396A




            Source: Bloomberg, KBank                                                                              The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          4
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Nov 22, 2011

                                                                                                                                 Rates on three-month bills ended last week at zero, down
                      Economic News Update                                                                                       from this year’s high of 0.157 percent in February and 5
                                                                                                                                 percent in mid-2007, just before credit markets froze as
    Dollar Status Grows as Foreign Banks                                                                                         losses on subprime mortgages accelerated.
    Double Deposits at Fed – by Bloomberg
                                                                                                                                 Three-month cross-currency basis swaps, the rates banks
    Foreign bank deposits at the Federal Reserve have more                                                                       pay to convert euro payments into dollars, were as low as
    than doubled to $715 billion from $350 billion since the end                                                                 132 basis points, or 1.32 percentage point, below the euro
    of 2010 amid Europe’s debt turmoil, buttressing the dollar’s                                                                 interbank offered rate Nov. 18, the most expensive since
    status as the world’s reserve currency.                                                                                      December 2008.

    Forty-seven non-U.S. banks held balances of more than $1                                                                     The cost of dollar funding is increasing as Europe’s debt
    billion at the New York Fed as of Sept. 30, up from 22 at                                                                    crisis escalates. Last week, yields on German two-year
    the end of 2010, according to a survey of 80 financial                                                                       bunds dropped below 0.3 percent for the first time, while
    institutions by ICAP Plc, the world’s largest inter-dealer                                                                   the extra yield investors demand to hold 10-year bonds
    broker. The dollar has appreciated 7.2 percent since                                                                         from France, Belgium, Spain and Austria instead of bunds
    Standard & Poor’s cut the nation’s AAA credit rating Aug.                                                                    climbed to euro-era records. The spread between German
    5, the second-best performance after the yen among                                                                           and French bonds of that maturity widened to 190 basis
    developed-nation peers, according to Bloomberg                                                                               points on Nov. 15, the highest in the euro union’s history.
    Correlation-Weighted Currency Indexes.

    A budget deficit of more than $1 trillion, a deadlock among
    Congressional supercommittee members on spending cuts
    and 9 percent unemployment haven’t deterred investors
    from seeking safety in the world’s biggest economy. The
    euro has been undermined by the region’s sovereign debt
    crisis, while the Swiss franc and yen have fallen as their
    governments buy billions of dollars to weaken them.

    The Fed’s record-low target interest rate for overnight loans
    among banks at between zero and 0.25 percent hasn’t
    discouraged dollar buying as slowing global growth and
    turmoil in Europe spur central banks from Australia to Brazil
    to cut rates, reducing their appeal to investors seeking
    higher returns.

    Foreign demand for U.S. assets rose the most in 10
    months in September. Net buying of long-term equities,
    notes and bonds totaled $68.6 billion, the highest since
    November 2010, compared with net buying of $58 billion in
    August, the Treasury Department said Nov. 16.

    The dollar is up 6.5 percent in the past three months,
    recovering to about level this year with its nine peers,
    which include the Swedish krona and the Swiss franc. It’s
    trading about 4 percent below where it was in 1975, two
    years after President Richard Nixon ended the currency’s
    official ties to gold.

    The U.S. currency rose 1.7 percent to $1.3525 per euro in
    the five days ended Nov. 18, gaining for a third week in a
    row.

    Demand for Treasury securities that mature in under a year
    has increased as financial institutions boost holdings of the
    highest-quality assets to meet new regulations set by the
    Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland.
    Bank holdings of Treasuries and government-related debt                                                                                                 Market Strategists:
    totaled a record $1.69 trillion at the end of October, up from                                                                                          Nalin Chutchotitham
    less than $1.1 trillion in 2008.
                                                                                                                                                            nalin.c@kasikornbank.com
                                                                                                                                                            +662-470-3235
                                                                                                                                                            Amonthep Chawla
                                                                                                                                                            amonthep.c@kasikornbank.com
                                                                                                                                                            +662-470-6749




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         5
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Nov 22, 2011

                                                                                                   Economic Calendar
         Date / Time                   Country*                                      Event                                      Period             Consensus                  Actual                  Prior                 Revised

       11/21/2011 06:50                      JN             Merchnds Trade Balance Total                                           OCT                  ¥39.9B               -¥273.8B               ¥300.4B                  ¥296.2B
       11/21/2011 06:50                      JN             Adjusted Merchnds Trade Bal.                                           OCT                -¥204.0B               -¥457.9B                -¥21.8B                  -¥96.7B
       11/21/2011 06:50                      JN             Merchnds Trade Exports YoY                                             OCT                    -0.3                   -3.7                   2.4                      2.3
       11/21/2011 06:50                      JN             Merchnds Trade Imports YoY                                             OCT                    15.1                  17.9                   12.1                      --
       11/21/2011 07:00                      SI             GDP (QoQ)                                                             3Q F                  2.00%                  1.90%                  1.30%                   -6.40%

       11/21/2011 07:00                      SI             GDP (YoY)                                                             3Q F                  6.10%                  6.10%                  5.90%                      --
       11/21/2011 07:01                      UK             Rightmove House Prices (MoM)                                          NOV                      --                  -3.10%                 2.80%                      --
       11/21/2011 07:01                      UK             Rightmove House Prices (YoY)                                          NOV                      --                  1.20%                  1.20%                      --
       11/21/2011 09:30                      TH             Gross Domestic Product SA (QoQ)                                         3Q                  1.50%                  0.50%                 -0.20%                    0.00%
       11/21/2011 09:30                      TH             Gross Domestic Product (YoY)                                            3Q                  4.50%                  3.50%                  2.60%                    2.70%
       11/21/2011 11:30                      JN             All Industry Activity Index (MoM)                                      SEP                  -1.00%                 -0.90%                -0.50%                   -0.30%
       11/21/2011 12:00                      JN             Leading Index CI                                                     SEP F                     --                   91.5                   91.6                      --
       11/21/2011 12:00                      JN             Coincident Index CI                                                  SEP F                     --                     89                   88.9                      --
       11/21/2011 14:00                      JN             Convenience Store Sales YoY                                            OCT                     --                 14.10%                 -4.00%                      --
       11/21/2011 15:00                      TA             Export Orders (YoY)                                                    OCT                  3.50%                  4.38%                  2.72%                      --
       11/21/2011 15:20                      TA             Current Account Balance (USD)                                           3Q                  9600M                 10213M                 9015M                    8363M
       11/21/2011 16:00                      EC             Euro-Zone Current Account nsa                                          SEP                     --                   -2.5B                 -6.3B                    -7.2B
       11/21/2011 16:00                      EC             ECB Euro-Zone Current Account SA                                       SEP                     --                   0.5B                  -5.0B                    -5.9B
       11/21/2011 20:30                      CA             Wholesale Sales MoM                                                    SEP                  0.70%                  0.30%                  0.20%                    0.30%
       11/21/2011 20:30                      US             Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index                                         OCT                    0.19                  -0.13                  -0.22                    -0.2
       11/21/2011 22:00                      US             Existing Home Sales                                                    OCT                  4.80M                  4.97M                  4.91M                    4.90M
       11/21/2011 22:00                      US             Existing Home Sales MoM                                                OCT                  -2.20%                 1.40%                 -3.00%                   -3.20%
       11/22/2011 10:00                      SK             External Short-Term Debt                                                3Q                     --                     --                $149.7B                      --
       11/22/2011 12:00                      JN             Supermarket Sales (YoY)                                                OCT                     --                     --                 -3.60%                      --
       11/22/2011 15:00                      TH             Customs Exports (YoY)                                                  OCT                  9.80%                     --                 19.10%                      --
       11/22/2011 15:00                      TH             Customs Imports (YoY)                                                  OCT                 29.00%                     --                 41.90%                      --
       11/22/2011 15:00                      TH             Customs Trade Balance                                                  OCT                 -$539M                     --                 $238M                       --
       11/22/2011 15:00                      TA             Unemployment Rate - sa                                                 OCT                  4.30%                     --                  4.27%                      --
       11/22/2011 15:30                      HK             CPI - Composite Index (YoY)                                            OCT                  5.60%                     --                  5.80%                      --
       11/22/2011 16:30                      MA             Foreign Reserves                                                     Nov-15                    --                     --                $134.78B                     --
       11/22/2011 16:30                      UK             Public Finances (PSNCR)                                                OCT                   -1.0B                    --                  19.9B                      --
       11/22/2011 16:30                      UK             PSNB ex Interventions                                                  OCT                   6.5B                     --                  14.1B                      --
       11/22/2011 16:30                      UK             Public Sector Net Borrowing                                            OCT                   3.8B                     --                  11.4B                       --
       11/22/2011 20:30                      CA             Retail Sales MoM                                                       SEP                  0.50%                     --                  0.50%                      --
       11/22/2011 20:30                      CA             Retail Sales Less Autos MoM                                            SEP                  0.40%                     --                  0.40%                      --
       11/22/2011 20:30                      US             GDP QoQ (Annualized)                                                  3Q S                  2.50%                     --                  2.50%                      --
       11/22/2011 20:30                      US             Personal Consumption                                                  3Q S                  2.40%                     --                  2.40%                      --
       11/22/2011 20:30                      US             GDP Price Index                                                       3Q S                  2.50%                     --                  2.50%                      --
       11/22/2011 20:30                      US             Core PCE QoQ                                                          3Q S                  2.10%                     --                  2.10%                      --
       11/22/2011 22:00                      EC             Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence                                        NOV A                    -21                     --                   -19.9                     --

    Source: Bloomberg (EC – eurozone, SK – South Korea, SI – Singapore, IN – India, ID – Indonesia, AU – Australia, MA – Mlaysia, TH - Thailand, CH – China)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         6
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.

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K bank daily nov 22

  • 1. Capital Markets Research Nov 22, 2011 Thai Stock Market Nov 21 ChangeUS Market Nov 21 Change SET Index 965.07 -19.09 Dow Jones 11,547.31 -248.85 Market Turnover (Bt mn) 20,829.37 -637.82 S&P 500 1,192.98 -22.67 Foreign Net Position (Bt mn) -1,599.53 +270.05 Nasdaq 2,523.14 -49.36 Thai Bond Market Nov 21 ChangeUS 10 yr T-note (%) 1.96 +1.0 bp Total Return Index 210.51 +206.63 US 2yr T-note (%) 0.27 -0.5 bp NYMEX crude ($/b) 96.92 -0.49 TGB Yield curve 1m 3m 6m 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 12yr 14yr 18yr Nov 21 3.41 3.34 3.31 3.25 3.22 3.23 3.26 3.35 3.42 3.54 3.62 3.75 Chng 1D (bp) +0 +0 +0 -1 +0 -1 +0 -1 +1 +0 +1 +0 Chng 5D (bp) -2 +3 -2 -3 -3 -1 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 Interbank Rates Nov 22 Nov 18 BIBOR 1w 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr Overnight (%) 3.50 3.38-3.51 Nov 21 3.50000 3.49667 3.49889 3.50000 3.51333 3.51889 3.52667 Repurchase Rates 1-day 7-day 14-day 1m SIBOR 1m 3m 6m Nov 21 3.50000 3.50000 3.47290 - Nov 21 0.25828 0.48250 0.69111 THBFIX (Ref.) 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr LIBOR 1m 3m 6m Nov 21 3.14807 2.72707 2.64479 2.74029 2.75354 2.78257 Nov 21 0.25667 0.49500 0.70611 Swap THB/THB 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 7yr 10yr Nov 22 Bid/Ask 2.73/2.78 2.71/2.76 2.83/2.88 2.99/3.04 3.11/3.15 3.28/3.33 3.47/3.52 KBank Counter Rates Buying Selling Forward Premium(satangs/month) (against THB) Sight Bill T/T T/T Export/Import USD 30.97 31.07 31.32 3.52/14.40 EUR 41.6888 41.8238 42.3788 2.54/15.70 GBP 48.3588 48.5150 49.1125 5.44/15.35 JPY 0.3996 0.4010 0.4085 5.42/16.99 KBank Technical Analysis Nov 22 Nov 21 Support Resistance Trend Strategy USD/THB (Onshore) 31.16 31.24 30.10 31.30 Sideway Buy USD near support USD/JPY 77.09 76.89 76.70 82.60 Sideway Buy USD near support EUR/USD 1.3505 1.3489 1.3470 1.3540 SidewaySell EUR near resistance Note: This table is primarily for the purpose of providing information. It is advisable that you contact us prior to quotations. Macro and Market Outlook • Thai economy in the third quarter expanded by 0.5% qoq or 3.5% yoy, which is lower than the consensus forecast at 4.5% yoy • DJIA dropped 2.11% mainly owing to unsettled agreement within the Super Committee over the plan to reduce the US budget deficit amounted $1.2trn • Sharp decline in stock markets provoked investors to sell gold so as to cover loss in stocks; gold price dropped to below $1,670/oz last night before rebounding to above the 1,680 level FX Market Wrap • EUR/USD touched last week’s low of 1.3421 as stock markets in the region slumped and Moody’s warned that France could lose the AAA rating if its borrowing costs continue to rise • USD/THB rose quickly yesterday after breaking past through a strong resistance of 31.05. The collapse in global gold prices could have added to the demand for the dollar News Update from the Web • Foreign bank deposits at the Federal Reserve have more than doubled to $715 billion from $350 billion since the end of 2010 amid Europe’s debt turmoil, buttressing the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721) via K-BIZ Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours www.twitter.com/KBankFX www.facebook.com/KBankFX 1 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 2. KBank Daily Update Nov 22, 2011 Macro and Market Outlook US Treasuries and Thai rates Thai economy in the third quarter expanded by 0.5% qoq (Source: Bloomberg) Treasuries snapped a gain from or 3.5% yoy, which is lower than the consensus forecast at yesterday as the U.S. prepared to sell $35 billion of five- 4.5% yoy. The economy grew from the second quarter year notes today, with the auction poised to draw a record when industry encountered shortage of raw materials as a low yield. Benchmark 10-year rates were little changed at result of tsunami in Japan. Major contributions of economic 1.97 percent of 9:48 a.m. in Tokyo, according to Bloomberg growth are net exports and private consumption. NESDB Bond Trader prices. Treasuries rallied yesterday as revised its GDP estimates for this year to grow at 1.5% for investors sought safety amid U.S. budget gridlock and a the whole year down from 3.5-4.0% due to 2.3% debt crisis in Europe. contraction from the flood. Kasikorn Research Center projected the economy to grow at 1.7%. The U.S. Congress budget committee’s failure to reach a deficit-reduction agreement puts into motion $1.2 trillion in % yoy/ contribution spending cuts over 10 years. Government debt in Spain 15 and Italy declined yesterday on concern the region’s leaders will struggle to convince investors they can pay 10 their debts. 5 % 0 5.0 4.5 -5 Priv ate consumption Gov ernment C onsumption 4.0 -10 Gross fix ed capital formation Inv entory change 3.5 N et ex ports GDP y oy 3.0 -15 2.5 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 2.0 1.5 Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped 2.11% May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 mainly owing to unsettled agreement within the Super 10yr Treasury yield 30yr Treasury yield Committee over the plan to reduce the US budget deficit amounted $1.2trn. The plan is supposed to combine spending cuts with tax increases; however, if the super Thai interest rate: Bond yields were almost unchanged committee could not reach an agreement, the automatic on Monday. 2-year yield remained at 3.22%, 5-year at spending cuts will apply. President Obama is seen to veto 3.26% and 10-year at 3.42%. the automatic spending cuts. Reducing the role of the government in stimulating the ailing US economy is likely to According to Thai BMA’s data update, foreign investors lead to a long period of economic slow down. Apart from were net buyers of about THB5.1bn worth of bonds last the US budget conflicts, investors were worried about the week. Yet, their share in the market remained relatively low debt crisis in the eurozone that could spread to France, compared to earlier periods. With the rapid weakening of inducing them to liquidate risky assets and hold more US Thai baht this week, we expects foreign purchases to be dollar. France is seen to risk its AAA rating if the weaker this week and there could be a net-selling. government tries to inject capital so as to help its % commercial banks reduce losses from holding PIIGS 7.3 bonds. French banks have high exposure on Italy bonds, which could trigger bank crisis if Italy fails to honor the 6.8 loans. French bond yields rose precipitously. 6.3 13000 72 5.8 12500 74 5.3 12000 4.8 76 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 11500 78 foreign holding share of total outstanding 11000 10500 80 The weaker-than-expected economic growth in Q3 10000 82 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 reinforces the expectation that the Bank of Thailand may need to cut more than just 25bp of its policy rate to secure Dow Jones Industrial (left axis) DXY - US dollar index (right axis - inverted) a quick rebound of economic activities, although there are some concerns for near-term inflationary pressure. Sharp decline in stock markets provoked investors to sell However, we expect that medium-term inflationary gold so as to cover loss in stocks. Gold price dropped to pressure would be lessened by several factors, mainly the below $1,670/oz last night before rebounding to above the global economic slowdown. Today, the Thai cabinet will 1,680 level. discuss postponing the wage increase deadline by another 3 months in Greater Bangkok (including 5 other provinces) and Phuket. For the other 70 provinces, the 300 baht minimum wage may be applied around Jan 1, 2013. Moreover, Internal Trade Department of the MOC will be negotiating with business operators to reduce prices in flood-affected areas as well. 2 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 3. KBank Daily Update Nov 22, 2011 FX Wrap Currency Movement Mon 21-Nov-11 Fri 18-Nov-11 % Change 90.0 31.11 30.98 +0.42 USD/THB 87.5 USD/JPY 76.93 76.85 +0.10 85.0 EUR/USD 1.349 1.351 -0.12 82.5 GBP/USD 1.5642 1.5791 -0.94 80.0 77.5 USD/CHF 0.9170 0.9173 -0.03 75.0 USD/SGD 1.3043 1.2985 +0.45 72.5 USD/TWD 30.33 30.25 +0.26 Jan-10 May -10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May -11 Sep-11 USD/KRW 1,143.0 1,138.5 +0.40 Dollar Index (DXY) 200-day mvg avg 60-day mvg avg USD/PHP 43.31 43.39 -0.18 USD/IDR 9,150 9,085 +0.72 The dollar index touched its 6-week high on Monday on the USD/MYR 3.182 3.160 +0.70 back of worries regarding European debt problems and expectation of weaker U.S. growth after the U.S. House USD/CNY 6.360 6.357 +0.06 budget “Super Committee” failed to finalise on fiscal Source: Reuters spending plans. EUR/USD touched last week’s low of .FX Consensus Forecast 1.3421 before closing at 1.349 yesterday as stock markets Spot Dec 2011 Jun 2012 Dec 2012 in the region slumped and Moody’s warned France that if yields (its borrowing costs) continue to rise, it would risk USD/THB 31.20 30.50 30.00 29.50 losing the AAA credit rating. USD/JPY 77.17 77.00 78.00 80.00 114 80 EUR/USD 1.3488 1.35 1.35 1.39 112 GBP/USD 1.5644 1.57 1.58 1.61 79 110 USD/CNY 6.371 6.310 6.190 6.080 108 78 USD/SGD 1.3025 1.27 1.23 1.19 106 77 USD/IDR 9,035 8,950 8,600 8,588 104 76 USD/MYR 3.18 3.13 3.03 2.98 102 100 75 USD/PHP 43.26 43.00 42.50 41.50 16-Aug 16-Sep 16-Oct 16-Nov USD/KRW 1,145 1,130 1,075 1,050 EUR/JPY (LHS) USD/JPY USD/TWD 30.28 30.00 29.50 29.00 USD/JPY rebounded slightly to close at 76.93 on Monday AUD/USD 0.99 1.01 1.02 1.05 and continues to trade higher to wards 77.20 today, USD/CHF 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.92 breaking past its 30-day average at 77.11. Partly, demand Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB in the yen as a substitute for the dollar (both are safe havens) declined, after Moody’s and S&P affirmed U.S. Currency Pair Targets credit ratings. Yet, comments from the two rating agencies Spot Dec 2011 Jun 2012 Dec 2012 do differ with the latter saying that the Super Committee’s USD/THB 31.20 30.50 30.00 29.5 failure reflected that their downgrade of the U.S. in August JPYTHB 40.43 39.61 38.46 36.88 made good sense. EURTHB 42.08 41.18 40.50 41.01 USD/THB rose quickly yesterday after breaking past GBP/THB 48.81 47.89 47.40 47.50 through a strong resistance of 31.05 (large trading volumes above 31.00). The collapse in global gold prices could have CNY/THB 4.90 4.83 4.85 4.85 added to the demand for the dollar as local investors saw AUD/THB 30.76 30.81 30.60 30.98 opportunities to purchase gold at a cheaper price. USD/THB later closed 0.13 higher to 31.11. CHF/THB 34.00 33.52 32.97 32.07 SGD/THB 23.95 24.02 24.39 24.79 31.40 Source: KBank, Bloomberg 31.20 31.00 KBank NEER Index 30.80 30.60 Current 98.28 30.40 YTD + 5.54% 30.20 vs 52 weeks ago - 3.43% 30.00 29.80 vs 1mth ago + 0.00% 29.60 vs 1 week ago + 0.00% 16-Jul 16-Aug 16-Sep 16-Oct 16-Nov vs 1 day ago + 0.00% USD/THB USD/THB 30day mov avg vs long term average + 10.07% Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation 3 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 4. KBank Daily Update Nov 22, 2011 Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized Auction results of BoT Bill Nov 18 Yield shift (bps) -40 -30 -20 -10 0 +10 +20 +30 +40 Bid- Tenor Amt. Accepted LB123A 3.64 3.57 3.51 3.44 3.37 3.31 3.24 3.17 2.86 Symbol Avg. Yield (%) coverage (yrs) (Bt mn) Range (%) ratio LB12NA 4.63 4.31 4.00 3.68 3.37 3.06 2.74 2.43 1.86 CB11D07A 0.04 65,000 3.340-3.365 3.3508 0.95 LB133A 5.06 4.61 4.16 3.71 3.26 2.81 2.36 1.91 1.21 LB137A 5.54 4.98 4.41 3.85 3.28 2.72 2.15 1.59 0.77 Source: ThaiBMA LB13OA 5.96 5.29 4.61 3.94 3.27 2.59 1.92 1.24 0.32 Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds LB143A 6.39 5.61 4.83 4.06 3.28 2.50 1.73 0.95 -0.08 Tenor Amt. Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark LB145A 6.77 5.89 5.01 4.13 3.26 2.38 1.50 0.62 -0.51 (yrs) (Bt mn) LB145B 6.68 5.82 4.96 4.11 3.25 2.39 1.53 0.68 -0.43 BOT152A 4.00 65,000 22-Nov-11 24-Feb-11 - LB14DA 7.58 6.50 5.43 4.36 3.29 2.21 1.14 0.07 -1.26 CB11D22C 0.08 30,000 22-Nov-11 22-Dec-11 - LB155A 8.27 7.01 5.76 4.50 3.25 1.99 0.74 -0.52 -2.02 CB12223B 0.25 15,000 22-Nov-11 23-Feb-12 - LB157A 8.11 6.90 5.69 4.48 3.27 2.05 0.84 -0.37 -1.83 CB12524A 0.50 17,000 22-Nov-11 24-May-12 - LB15DA 8.99 7.55 6.11 4.68 3.24 1.80 0.36 -1.07 -2.76 Source: ThaiBMA LB167A 9.64 8.05 6.47 4.88 3.30 1.71 0.13 -1.46 -3.29 LB16NA 10.29 8.54 6.80 5.05 3.31 1.56 -0.18 -1.93 -3.92 * No LB auction in December LB171A 10.24 8.51 6.79 5.06 3.33 1.61 -0.12 -1.84 -3.82 LB175A 10.76 8.90 7.05 5.20 3.34 1.49 -0.36 -2.21 -4.31 LB183A 12.03 9.87 7.71 5.56 3.40 1.25 -0.91 -3.06 -5.47 LB183B 11.80 9.70 7.60 5.50 3.40 1.30 -0.79 -2.89 -5.24 LB191A 12.58 10.29 7.99 5.70 3.40 1.11 -1.18 -3.47 -6.01 LB196A 13.51 10.99 8.47 5.95 3.43 0.92 -1.60 -4.12 -6.88 LB198A 13.34 10.86 8.39 5.92 3.45 0.97 -1.50 -3.97 -6.68 LB19DA 13.86 11.26 8.66 6.06 3.46 0.86 -1.74 -4.33 -7.18 LB213A 15.05 12.16 9.26 6.37 3.48 0.59 -2.30 -5.19 -8.32 LB214A 14.93 12.07 9.21 6.34 3.48 0.63 -2.23 -5.09 -8.19 LB22NA 17.00 13.63 10.26 6.89 3.52 0.16 -3.21 -6.57 -10.18 LB233A 17.11 13.72 10.33 6.94 3.56 0.17 -3.21 -6.59 -10.23 LB236A 18.18 14.53 10.87 7.22 3.57 -0.08 -3.72 -7.37 -11.26 LB244A 18.69 14.91 11.14 7.37 3.60 -0.17 -3.94 -7.70 -11.71 LB24DA 19.01 15.16 11.31 7.46 3.61 -0.23 -4.07 -7.92 -12.01 LB267A 19.66 15.67 11.68 7.69 3.70 -0.28 -4.27 -8.25 -12.48 LB283A 21.41 16.99 12.57 8.16 3.75 -0.66 -5.07 -9.47 -14.13 LB296A 22.76 18.01 13.26 8.52 3.78 -0.96 -5.69 -10.42 -15.40 LB383A 27.96 21.96 15.96 9.97 3.98 -2.00 -7.98 -13.96 -20.17 LB396A 28.80 22.60 16.40 10.22 4.03 -2.14 -8.31 -14.48 -20.89 Average 12.83 10.48 8.14 5.79 3.45 1.11 -1.24 -3.58 -6.17 Source: KBank, Bloomberg KBank Rich – Cheap Model Weekly update Nov 21st Bps (actual YTM vs. model) 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 -5.00 -10.00 -15.00 3 mth avg Now -20.00 LB296A LB123A LB133A LB137A LB145B LB14DA LB155A LB15DA LB167A LB16NA LB175A LB183B LB191A LB196A LB198A LB19DA LB213A LB24DA LB267A LB283A LB396A Source: Bloomberg, KBank The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields 4 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 5. KBank Daily Update Nov 22, 2011 Rates on three-month bills ended last week at zero, down Economic News Update from this year’s high of 0.157 percent in February and 5 percent in mid-2007, just before credit markets froze as Dollar Status Grows as Foreign Banks losses on subprime mortgages accelerated. Double Deposits at Fed – by Bloomberg Three-month cross-currency basis swaps, the rates banks Foreign bank deposits at the Federal Reserve have more pay to convert euro payments into dollars, were as low as than doubled to $715 billion from $350 billion since the end 132 basis points, or 1.32 percentage point, below the euro of 2010 amid Europe’s debt turmoil, buttressing the dollar’s interbank offered rate Nov. 18, the most expensive since status as the world’s reserve currency. December 2008. Forty-seven non-U.S. banks held balances of more than $1 The cost of dollar funding is increasing as Europe’s debt billion at the New York Fed as of Sept. 30, up from 22 at crisis escalates. Last week, yields on German two-year the end of 2010, according to a survey of 80 financial bunds dropped below 0.3 percent for the first time, while institutions by ICAP Plc, the world’s largest inter-dealer the extra yield investors demand to hold 10-year bonds broker. The dollar has appreciated 7.2 percent since from France, Belgium, Spain and Austria instead of bunds Standard & Poor’s cut the nation’s AAA credit rating Aug. climbed to euro-era records. The spread between German 5, the second-best performance after the yen among and French bonds of that maturity widened to 190 basis developed-nation peers, according to Bloomberg points on Nov. 15, the highest in the euro union’s history. Correlation-Weighted Currency Indexes. A budget deficit of more than $1 trillion, a deadlock among Congressional supercommittee members on spending cuts and 9 percent unemployment haven’t deterred investors from seeking safety in the world’s biggest economy. The euro has been undermined by the region’s sovereign debt crisis, while the Swiss franc and yen have fallen as their governments buy billions of dollars to weaken them. The Fed’s record-low target interest rate for overnight loans among banks at between zero and 0.25 percent hasn’t discouraged dollar buying as slowing global growth and turmoil in Europe spur central banks from Australia to Brazil to cut rates, reducing their appeal to investors seeking higher returns. Foreign demand for U.S. assets rose the most in 10 months in September. Net buying of long-term equities, notes and bonds totaled $68.6 billion, the highest since November 2010, compared with net buying of $58 billion in August, the Treasury Department said Nov. 16. The dollar is up 6.5 percent in the past three months, recovering to about level this year with its nine peers, which include the Swedish krona and the Swiss franc. It’s trading about 4 percent below where it was in 1975, two years after President Richard Nixon ended the currency’s official ties to gold. The U.S. currency rose 1.7 percent to $1.3525 per euro in the five days ended Nov. 18, gaining for a third week in a row. Demand for Treasury securities that mature in under a year has increased as financial institutions boost holdings of the highest-quality assets to meet new regulations set by the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland. Bank holdings of Treasuries and government-related debt Market Strategists: totaled a record $1.69 trillion at the end of October, up from Nalin Chutchotitham less than $1.1 trillion in 2008. nalin.c@kasikornbank.com +662-470-3235 Amonthep Chawla amonthep.c@kasikornbank.com +662-470-6749 5 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 6. KBank Daily Update Nov 22, 2011 Economic Calendar Date / Time Country* Event Period Consensus Actual Prior Revised 11/21/2011 06:50 JN Merchnds Trade Balance Total OCT ¥39.9B -¥273.8B ¥300.4B ¥296.2B 11/21/2011 06:50 JN Adjusted Merchnds Trade Bal. OCT -¥204.0B -¥457.9B -¥21.8B -¥96.7B 11/21/2011 06:50 JN Merchnds Trade Exports YoY OCT -0.3 -3.7 2.4 2.3 11/21/2011 06:50 JN Merchnds Trade Imports YoY OCT 15.1 17.9 12.1 -- 11/21/2011 07:00 SI GDP (QoQ) 3Q F 2.00% 1.90% 1.30% -6.40% 11/21/2011 07:00 SI GDP (YoY) 3Q F 6.10% 6.10% 5.90% -- 11/21/2011 07:01 UK Rightmove House Prices (MoM) NOV -- -3.10% 2.80% -- 11/21/2011 07:01 UK Rightmove House Prices (YoY) NOV -- 1.20% 1.20% -- 11/21/2011 09:30 TH Gross Domestic Product SA (QoQ) 3Q 1.50% 0.50% -0.20% 0.00% 11/21/2011 09:30 TH Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 3Q 4.50% 3.50% 2.60% 2.70% 11/21/2011 11:30 JN All Industry Activity Index (MoM) SEP -1.00% -0.90% -0.50% -0.30% 11/21/2011 12:00 JN Leading Index CI SEP F -- 91.5 91.6 -- 11/21/2011 12:00 JN Coincident Index CI SEP F -- 89 88.9 -- 11/21/2011 14:00 JN Convenience Store Sales YoY OCT -- 14.10% -4.00% -- 11/21/2011 15:00 TA Export Orders (YoY) OCT 3.50% 4.38% 2.72% -- 11/21/2011 15:20 TA Current Account Balance (USD) 3Q 9600M 10213M 9015M 8363M 11/21/2011 16:00 EC Euro-Zone Current Account nsa SEP -- -2.5B -6.3B -7.2B 11/21/2011 16:00 EC ECB Euro-Zone Current Account SA SEP -- 0.5B -5.0B -5.9B 11/21/2011 20:30 CA Wholesale Sales MoM SEP 0.70% 0.30% 0.20% 0.30% 11/21/2011 20:30 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index OCT 0.19 -0.13 -0.22 -0.2 11/21/2011 22:00 US Existing Home Sales OCT 4.80M 4.97M 4.91M 4.90M 11/21/2011 22:00 US Existing Home Sales MoM OCT -2.20% 1.40% -3.00% -3.20% 11/22/2011 10:00 SK External Short-Term Debt 3Q -- -- $149.7B -- 11/22/2011 12:00 JN Supermarket Sales (YoY) OCT -- -- -3.60% -- 11/22/2011 15:00 TH Customs Exports (YoY) OCT 9.80% -- 19.10% -- 11/22/2011 15:00 TH Customs Imports (YoY) OCT 29.00% -- 41.90% -- 11/22/2011 15:00 TH Customs Trade Balance OCT -$539M -- $238M -- 11/22/2011 15:00 TA Unemployment Rate - sa OCT 4.30% -- 4.27% -- 11/22/2011 15:30 HK CPI - Composite Index (YoY) OCT 5.60% -- 5.80% -- 11/22/2011 16:30 MA Foreign Reserves Nov-15 -- -- $134.78B -- 11/22/2011 16:30 UK Public Finances (PSNCR) OCT -1.0B -- 19.9B -- 11/22/2011 16:30 UK PSNB ex Interventions OCT 6.5B -- 14.1B -- 11/22/2011 16:30 UK Public Sector Net Borrowing OCT 3.8B -- 11.4B -- 11/22/2011 20:30 CA Retail Sales MoM SEP 0.50% -- 0.50% -- 11/22/2011 20:30 CA Retail Sales Less Autos MoM SEP 0.40% -- 0.40% -- 11/22/2011 20:30 US GDP QoQ (Annualized) 3Q S 2.50% -- 2.50% -- 11/22/2011 20:30 US Personal Consumption 3Q S 2.40% -- 2.40% -- 11/22/2011 20:30 US GDP Price Index 3Q S 2.50% -- 2.50% -- 11/22/2011 20:30 US Core PCE QoQ 3Q S 2.10% -- 2.10% -- 11/22/2011 22:00 EC Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence NOV A -21 -- -19.9 -- Source: Bloomberg (EC – eurozone, SK – South Korea, SI – Singapore, IN – India, ID – Indonesia, AU – Australia, MA – Mlaysia, TH - Thailand, CH – China) 6 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.