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Capital Markets Research
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jan 26, 2011
Thai Stock Market                                Jan 25            Change         US Market                                Jan 25             Change
SET Index                                        959.17               -4.51       Dow Jones                             11,977.19                    -3.33
Market Turnover (Bt mn)                      40,703.65           +3,301.56        Nasdaq                                 2,719.25                   +1.70
Foreign Net Position (Bt mn)                  +607.67            +4,657.16        S&P 500                                1,291.18                   +0.34
Thai Bond Market                                 Jan 25            Change         US 10 yr T-note (%)                         3.33                   -8 bp
Total Return Index                               200.86               -0.36       US 2yr T-note (%)                           0.58                   -5 bp
Total Market Turnover (Bt mn)                                                     NYMEX crude ($/b)                         86.19                    -1.68
Yield Curve               1m        3m        6m         1yr            2yr         3yr       5yr        7yr       10yr       12yr        14yr        18yr
Jan 25 (%)               2.01      2.07      2.26       2.54           2.91        3.15      3.32       3.59       3.82       3.97        4.06        4.17
Change (bp)                 6         6           3        -2             3           7         3          3          2           5          4           0
Interbank Rates           Jan 26       Jan 24              BIBOR              1w          1m          2m         3m        6m           9m         1yr
Overnight (%)               2.25    2.050-2.210            Jan 25          2.26000      2.28016 2.33625 2.39125 2.49250 2.55000 2.65000
Repurchase Rates           1-day          7-day            14-day               1m             SIBOR          1m               3m               6m
Jan 25                    2.25000        2.25000               -                 -             Jan 25       0.27110         0.30900           0.46500
THBFIX (Ref.)        1m          2m        3m          6m           9m          1yr            LIBOR          1m               3m               6m
Jan 25             0.88288     0.96399 1.15134 1.40626 1.66283                1.89856          Jan 25       0.26000         0.30438           0.45469
SWAP (THB/THB,Onshore)                   1yr              2yr                3yr              4yr             5yr              7yr              10yr
Jan 26        Bid/Ask                 1.80/1.84        2.50/2.54          3.00/3.04       3.36/3.40        3.60/3.64       3.95/3.99         4.26/4.30
KBank Counter Rates                                 Buying                                 Selling                  Premium/Discount (stgs/m)
(against THB)                         Sight Bill                 T/T                          T/T                             Export/Import
USD                                     30.67                  30.77                        31.02                                 0.45/3.06
EUR                                    41.8638                42.0000                      42.5288                               -2.16/1.05
GBP                                    48.3700                48.5288                      49.1100                               -0.01/2.48
JPY                                    0.3716                 0.3729                        0.3796                                0.27/4.57
KBank Technical Analysis                    Jan 26            Jan 25            Support        Resistance         Trend                 Strategy
THB (Onshore)                                30.85             30.96              30.80           31.00          Sideway       Sell USD near resistance
JPY                                          82.08               82.2             81.80           82.60          Sideway        Buy USD near support
EUR/USD                                     1.3690            1.3689             1.3600           1.3730         Sideway        Buy EUR near support



                                                                                      Macro and Market Outlook
                   •    IMF raised forecast for global growth this year to 4.4% in its January update of World Economic
                        Outlook from 4.2% in October, citing stronger recovery in the U.S.
                   •    U.K. GDP in the fourth quarter unexpectedly fell by 0.5% qoq after increasing by more-than-
                        expected in Q3 by 0.7% - Pound fell
                   •    BoJ kept policy rate unchanged but raised growth outlook while India tightened monetary policy
                        further to curb inflation


                                                                                                      FX Market Wrap
                    •   EUR/USD remained supported near its two-month high. The market is pricing in a faster interest
                        rate hike by both the ECB and the BOE after inflation rates’ increases
                    •   USD/THB tested higher above 31.00 yesterday but heavy selling helped to push the pair down.
                        Support seen for baht this morning after foreigners turned net-buyers of local stocks yesterday


                                                                                          Economic News Update
                   •    South Korea’s economic growth slowed after industrial production moderated, reducing the
                        central bank’s scope to damp inflation by raising borrowing costs again
                   •    BoT’s board hopes to reach a conclusion with the MOF next week on how to deal with the
                        1.14trn baht debt incurred from buying bad assets from financial institutions during 1997 crisis
                    Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721)
                   via K-BIZ Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours


                                www.twitter.com/KBankFX                                     www.facebook.com/KBankFX



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1
For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Jan 26, 2011

                  Macro and Market Outlook                                                                                                  US Treasuries and Thai rates
    Global stock market sentiment remained elevated but
    concerns for inflation in Asia and the Emerging Markets                                                                      Treasuries fell, snapping a gain from yesterday, as
    remained an issue while every investor still has European                                                                    economists said a government report today will show new-
    debt problem at the back of their minds. The U.S. President                                                                  home sales increased for a second month.
    delivers his State of the Union speech this morning as the                                                                   Five-year debt dropped for the first time in four days as the
    market is likely to focus on implications for job creation,                                                                  U.S. prepared to auction $35 billion of the securities today,
    medium-term government debt reduction, healthcare                                                                            the second of three note sales this week totaling $99
    legislations among other issues.                                                                                             billion.

    Crude oil price continued to fall after Saudi Arabia’s                                                                       The yield on the 10-year note climbed two basis points to
    minister said OPEC may raise production to support rising                                                                    3.35 percent as of 10:12 a.m. in Tokyo, according to
    global demand. Meanwhile, gold price remained beaten in                                                                      BGCantor Market Data. Five-year yields advanced two
    recent trade as investors’ risk appetite increased and                                                                       basis points to 1.96 percent.
    continued to shift funds into risky assets, especially                                                                       Treasuries climbed yesterday, pushing yields on 10-year
    equities.                                                                                                                    debt down the most this year, as an official said President
        $/ounce                                                                                       $/barrel
                                                                                                                                 Barack Obama will propose a five-year freeze of non-
         1500                                                                                            95.0                    security discretionary spending to help cap deficits.
         1450
                                                                                                         90.0                    A government’s sale of $35 billion of two-year notes
         1400
         1350                                                                                            85.0                    yesterday attracted more demand than the average of the
         1300                                                                                                                    last 10 auctions of the securities. (Source: Bloomberg)
         1250                                                                                            80.0
         1200                                                                                                                        %                                                                                                   %
                                                                                                         75.0
         1150                                                                                                                       3.6                                                                                                  0.8
         1100                                                                                            70.0                       3.4
            Jun-10     Jul-10    Aug-10      Sep-10     Oct-10     Nov-10     Dec-10       Jan-11                                                                                                                                        0.7
                                                                                                                                    3.2
                                  Gold prices (LHS)                  WTI oil price (RHS)                                            3.0                                                                                                  0.6
                                                                                                                                    2.8
    Several key updates on the global economy need                                                                                  2.6                                                                                                  0.5
    mentioning today so we will not go into much detail. The                                                                        2.4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         0.4
    World Economic Forum begins today at Davos,                                                                                     2.2
    Switzerland, and would last for three days. We expect                                                                           2.0                                                                                                  0.3
    same attention to world leaders’ perspectives of the                                                                              Aug-10          Sep-10          Oct-10          Nov-10         Dec-10           Jan-11
    economic development from current situation.                                                                                                 10yr Treasury yield, % (left axis)                 2yr Treasury yield, % (right axis)


    -        Bank of Japan held policy rate in the 0 – 0.1% range                                                                Thai interest rate: Short-term interest rates as implied by
             and made no changes to its 5 trillion yen budget to buy                                                             the USD/THB FX swap market and Sibor USD continued to
             securities in the market. Although deflationary trends                                                              firm up, lifting short-term swap rates.
             remained a risk, the central bank raised growth
             forecast this year to 3.3% from earlier estimate of                                                                 Meanwhile, auction results of the 3-year BoT bond
             2.1%, in line with improvement in the global economy                                                                yesterday saw less than 1.0x of bid-coverage, indicating
             and outlook for corporate spending going forward.                                                                   that appetite for bonds has not improved much. This could
                                                                                                                                 also be due to the poorer liquidity of BoT bonds in the
    -        India’s central bank raised policy rates (repo and                                                                  secondary market, however. The spread was rather large,
             reverse repo) up by another 25 bp yesterday, bringing                                                               while the average yield at 3.25% was about 20bp higher
             the rates up to 6.50% and 5.50%, respectively. India                                                                than government bond of similar maturity on the previous
             has one of the highest inflation rates in Asia and rising                                                           day.
             food prices continue to put India at risks. In history,                                                             Today’s auction of government bonds may still see better
             inflationary problems that eroded people’s spending                                                                 results.
             power and savings had derailed governments before
             and hence the current administration is also placing a                                                                   %                                        THB fixing rates and IRS
             great emphasis on curbing price pressure.                                                                               2.75
                                                                                                                                     2.50
    -        U.K. GDP in the fourth quarter unexpectedly fell by                                                                     2.25
                                                                                                                                     2.00
             0.5% qoq after increasing by more-than-expected in                                                                      1.75
             Q3 by 0.7%. Compared to the same period last year,                                                                      1.50
             the U.K.’s economy had grown by 1.7%, a slowdown                                                                        1.25
                                                                                                                                     1.00
             compared to the previous quarter’s growth of 2.7%.
                                                                                                                                     0.75
                                                                                                                                     0.50
    -        The IMF raised forecast for global growth this year to                                                                            1Wk        1M        2M          3M        6M        9M         1Y      IRS 1Y      IRS 2Y
             4.4% in its January update of World Economic Outlook
                                                                                                                                                       current             5-day ago               1-m ago               3-m ago
             from 4.2% in October. However, the supranational
             body continues to expect growth to remain uneven
             across the globe. It cited stronger recovery in the U.S.
             as a key ingredient for the upward revision while
             concerns for sovereign debt in the euro area continue.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Jan 26, 2011


                                                                                                                                                                        Currency Movement
                                             FX Wrap
                                                                                                                                                                 Tue 25-Jan-11               Mon 24-Jan-11                  % Change
       1.42                                                                                                                              USD/THB                       30.95                      30.91                       +0.13
       1.40
                                                                                                                                         USD/JPY                       82.17                      82.47                        -0.36
       1.38
       1.36
                                                                                                                                        EUR/USD                        1.370                      1.364                       +0.39
       1.34                                                                                                                             GBP/USD                       1.5830                     1.5994                        -1.03
       1.32                                                                                                                              USD/CHF                      0.9412                     0.9486                        -0.78
       1.30
                                                                                                                                        USD/SGD                       1.2793                     1.2808                        -0.12
       1.28
                                                                                                                                        USD/TWD                        29.02                      29.05                        -0.10
       1.26
          Sep-10              Oct-10             Nov-10             Dec-10             Jan-11                                           USD/KRW                      1,119.0                     1,118.0                      +0.09
                                                           EUR/USD                                                                       USD/PHP                       44.49                      44.45                       +0.09
                                                                                                                                         USD/IDR                       9,054                      9,058                        -0.04
    EUR/USD remained supported near its two-month high.
    GBP/USD fell, however, after U.K. reported poorer Q4                                                                                USD/MYR                        3.051                      3.054                        -0.10
    GDP growth than expected. The market is pricing in a                                                                                USD/CNY                        6.582                      6.581                       +0.02
    faster interest rate hike by both the ECB and the BOE after                                                                    Source: Reuters
    inflation rates in recent announcements are higher than the                                                                                                      .FX Consensus Forecast
    central banks’ policy targets. Yields on 3-month interest
                                                                                                                                                                        Spot                          Jun 2011                Dec 2011
    rate futures in Europe had risen sharply this month while
    remaining stable in the U.S.. The market expects FOMC                                                                               USD/THB                         30.87                           28.30                   28.00
    statement tonight to reflect unchanged view of U.S. Fed
                                                                                                                                        USD/JPY                         82.08                           86.00                   89.00
    fund rates.
                                                                                                                                        EUR/USD                           1.37                           1.29                    1.30
       38.00                                                                                               80
                                                                                                                                        GBP/USD                           1.58                           1.55                    1.59
       37.50                                                                                               81
                                                                                                                                        USD/CNY                           6.58                           6.47                    6.30
       37.00
                                                                                                           82                           USD/SGD                           1.28                           1.27                    1.24
       36.50
                                                                                                           83                            USD/IDR                        9,040                           8,880                   8,800
       36.00
                                                                                                                                        USD/MYR                           3.05                           3.02                    2.96
       35.50                                                                                               84
                                                                                                                                        USD/PHP                         44.43                           42.60                   41.50
       35.00                                                                                               85
               1-Dec        11-Dec          21-Dec         31-Dec            10-Jan        20-Jan
                                                                                                                                        USD/KRW                         1,119                           1,088                   1,050

                                 JPY/THB (LHS)                  USD/JPY (RHS, inverted axis)
                                                                                                                                        USD/TWD                         29.03                           29.05                   28.55
                                                                                                                                        AUD/USD                           1.00                           0.99                    0.97
    USD/JPY ended lower yesterday as U.S. treasury yields                                                                               NZD/USD                           0.77                           0.77                    0.76
    declined, narrowing the spread between bonds of the two                                                                        Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB
    nations.
                                                                                                                                                                       Currency Pair Targets
    USD/THB tested higher above 31.00 yesterday but heavy                                                                                                                      Spot                  Jun 2011                 Dec 2011
    selling helped to recover some gains in the baht. The baht
    is seen to be supported this morning after foreigners turned                                                                             USD/THB                           30.87                   28.30                     28.0
    net-buyers of local stocks yesterday and regional                                                                                        EUR/THB                           42.25                    40.0                     37.0
    currencies remained on appreciating trend against the                                                                                    JPY/THB                           37.60                   34.70                     29.5
    greenback.
                                                                                                                                             GBP/THB                           48.81                   47.40                     43.7
    The slump in the SET index continued yesterday but it was                                                                                CNY/THB                           4.69                     4.78                      4.2
    only down by 4 points, indicating some stabilization in the
                                                                                                                                             AUD/THB                           30.77                    27.4                     26.0
    near-term. There is a risk of further plunge, however, with
    the market eyeing support levels of 890-900 points.                                                                                      CHF/THB                           32.77                    29.6                     27.7
                                                                                                                                   Source: KBank, Bloomberg
       31.50
       31.30
                                                                                                                                 KBank NEER Index
       31.10                                                                                                                     Current                                                                         98.86
       30.90
       30.70                                                                                                                     YTD                                                                           + 6.16%
       30.50                                                                                                                     vs 52 weeks ago                                                               + 5.23%
       30.30
       30.10                                                                                                                     vs 1mth ago                                                                   - 2.24%
       29.90                                                                                                                     vs 1 week ago                                                                 - 0.14%
       29.70
       29.50                                                                                                                     vs 1 day ago                                                                  - 0.08%
           Sep-10              Oct-10            Nov-10             Dec-10             Jan-11                                    vs long term average                                                         + 11.16%
                                                                                                                                 Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange
                                                           USD/THB                                                               rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade
                                                                                                                                 competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         3
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Jan 26, 2011

         Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized                                                                                                           Auction results of BoT Bonds                                                                                        Jan 25
    Yield shift (bps)         -40       -30            -20          -10              0               +10         +20             +30          +40                                                                                                                                         Bid-
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Tenor              Amt.                      Accepted
         LB113A               2.10      2.11           2.12         2.13           2.14              2.15        2.16            2.18         1.94                     Symbol                                                                                            Avg. Yield (%) coverage
                                                                                                                                                                                                          (yrs)            (Bt mn)                    Range (%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ratio
           LB116A             2.72      2.62           2.51         2.41           2.31              2.21        2.11            2.00         1.65
                                                                                                                                                                       BOT13NA                           3.00              40,000                      3.12/3.30           3.232700       0.96
          LB11NA              3.60      3.32           3.05         2.77           2.50              2.22        1.95            1.67         1.15
                                                                                                                                                                       CB11224C                          0.08              25,000                      2.00/2.06           2.040250       1.13
           LB123A             4.21      3.84           3.46         3.08           2.70              2.33        1.95            1.57         0.94
                                                                                                                                                                       CB11428B                          0.25              22,000                      2.08/2.14           2.103950       1.20
          LB12NA              5.35      4.73           4.11         3.49           2.87              2.26        1.64            1.02         0.15
           LB133A             6.00      5.25           4.51         3.76           3.01              2.27        1.52            0.77        -0.22                     CB11728A                          0.50              15,000                     2.275/2.310          2.296090       2.23
           LB137A             6.56      5.69           4.82         3.95           3.08              2.21        1.34            0.47        -0.65                     Source: ThaiBMA

          LB13OA              7.00      6.03           5.07         4.10           3.14              2.17        1.21            0.25        -0.97                     Auction Calendar of Government Bonds
           LB143A             7.35      6.32           5.29         4.26           3.23              2.20        1.17            0.14        -1.14                                                       Tenor              Amt.
                                                                                                                                                                       Symbol                                                                     Auction Date           Maturity Date Remark
           LB145A             7.90      6.75           5.60         4.44           3.29              2.14        0.98            -0.17 -1.57                                                              (yrs)            (Bt mn)
           LB145B             7.90      6.75           5.60         4.44           3.29              2.14        0.98            -0.17 -1.57                           LB21DA                            11.08             7,000                      26-Jan-11            17-Dec-21       -
          LB14DA              8.69      7.35           6.01         4.67           3.33              1.99        0.65            -0.69 -2.28                           Source: ThaiBMA
           LB155A             9.46      7.93           6.40         4.87           3.35              1.82        0.29            -1.23 -3.01                           Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds
           LB157A             9.31      7.82           6.33         4.84           3.35              1.87        0.38            -1.11 -2.85
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Tenor              Amt.
          LB15DA              10.29 8.56               6.82         5.09           3.36              1.62       -0.11 -1.84 -3.83                                      Symbol                                                                     Auction Date           Maturity Date Remark
                                                                                                                                                                                                          (yrs)            (Bt mn)
           LB167A             10.90 9.04               7.17         5.31           3.45              1.59       -0.28 -2.14 -4.25
                                                                                                                                                                       CB11214A                          0.04              90,000                     27-Jan-11            14-Feb-11       -
          LB16NA              11.46 9.46               7.47         5.48           3.49              1.50       -0.49 -2.48 -4.72
                                                                                                                                                                       CB11215A                          0.04              85,000                     28-Jan-11            15-Feb-11       -
           LB171A             11.53 9.53               7.53         5.53           3.53              1.54       -0.46 -2.46 -4.70
                                                                                                                                                                       Source: ThaiBMA
           LB175A             12.08 9.96               7.83         5.71           3.58              1.46       -0.66 -2.78 -5.16
           LB183A             13.20 10.81 8.42                      6.04           3.66              1.27       -1.11 -3.49 -6.12
           LB183B             12.90 10.59 8.28                      5.97           3.66              1.35       -0.96 -3.27 -5.83
                                                                                                                                                                       * Note that the MOF suspends auction of Treasury bills for two months
           LB191A             13.89 11.34 8.79                      6.24           3.70              1.15       -1.39 -3.94 -6.73                                      during January – February 2011. This is due to the large amount of Treasury
           LB196A             14.83 12.04 9.26                      6.48           3.69              0.91       -1.87 -4.65 -7.67                                      cash balance.

           LB198A             14.38 11.72 9.06                      6.40           3.74              1.09       -1.57 -4.22 -7.13
          LB19DA              14.94 12.15 9.37                      6.59           3.80              1.02       -1.76 -4.54 -7.57
           LB213A             16.07 13.02 9.97                      6.93           3.88              0.84       -2.20 -5.24 -8.53
           LB214A             15.93 12.92 9.91                      6.91           3.90              0.89       -2.11 -5.11 -8.36
          LB22NA              18.01 14.50 11.00 7.49                               3.99              0.49       -3.01 -6.51 -10.26
           LB233A             18.08 14.57 11.05 7.54                               4.03              0.53       -2.98 -6.49 -10.24
           LB236A             19.53 15.65 11.78 7.91                               4.04              0.17       -3.69 -7.56 -11.67
           LB244A             19.66 15.76 11.87 7.98                               4.09              0.20       -3.68 -7.56 -11.69
          LB24DA              20.26 16.22 12.18 8.14                               4.10              0.07       -3.96 -7.99 -12.27
           LB267A             20.79 16.63 12.48 8.32                               4.17              0.02       -4.12 -8.27 -12.66
           LB283A             22.04 17.58 13.12 8.66                               4.21          -0.24 -4.69 -9.14 -13.83
           LB296A             23.76 18.87 13.99 9.11                               4.23          -0.64 -5.52 -10.38 -15.50
           LB383A             28.02 22.08 16.15 10.23 4.31                                       -1.61 -7.52 -13.42 -19.57
           LB396A             29.34 23.08 16.83 10.58 4.34                                       -1.89 -8.12 -14.35 -20.82
          Average             12.97 10.61 8.25                      5.89           3.53              1.17       -1.19 -3.54 -6.15
    Source: KBank, Bloomberg



            KBank Rich – Cheap Model
                                    30.00

                                    20.00

                                    10.00

                                     0.00

                                   -10.00

                                   -20.00

                                   -30.00                                                                                                                                                                                                             3 mth avg
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Now
                                   -40.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       LB296A
                                              LB113A

                                                        LB116A
                                                                 LB11NA

                                                                          LB123A

                                                                                   LB133A
                                                                                            LB137A

                                                                                                      LB145B

                                                                                                               LB14DA
                                                                                                                        LB155A

                                                                                                                                 LB15DA

                                                                                                                                          LB167A
                                                                                                                                                   LB16NA

                                                                                                                                                            LB175A

                                                                                                                                                                     LB183B
                                                                                                                                                                              LB191A

                                                                                                                                                                                       LB196A

                                                                                                                                                                                                LB198A
                                                                                                                                                                                                         LB19DA

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  LB213A

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           LB24DA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    LB267A

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             LB283A


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                LB396A




            Source: Bloomberg, KBank                                                                                        The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 4
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Jan 26, 2011

                                                                                                                                 Late last year, both agreed to solve the issue by
                      Economic News Update                                                                                       transferring the FIDF's assets to the ministry to help clear
                                                                                                                                 some of the principal. However, both have yet to appraise
    S. Korea Economic Growth Slowed in the                                                                                       the assets.
    Fourth Quarter: South Korea’s economic growth
    slowed after industrial production moderated, reducing the                                                                   They are now working on drafting the fund-closing bill and
    central bank’s scope to damp inflation by raising borrowing                                                                  seeking a consensus on asset appraisals.
    costs again.
                                                                                                                                 "Actually, both issues [asset evaluation and the draft] are
    Gross domestic product rose 0.5 percent in the three                                                                         taxpayers' money transferred between two pockets.
    months through December from the previous quarter, when                                                                      Personally, I don't think any dispute should arise. We
    it advanced 0.7 percent, the Bank of Korea said in Seoul                                                                     should settle on a solution that benefit the people the most,
    today. The median estimate of 12 economists in a                                                                             even though one of us stands to lose," said M. R.
    Bloomberg News survey was for a 0.4 percent gain. From a                                                                     Chatumongkol.
    year earlier, GDP increased 4.8 percent.
                                                                                                                                 Since consolidating the central bank's reserve and
    Industrial output suffered the worst monthly decline in                                                                      currency accounts is not possible, the focus should be on
    nearly two years last quarter even as inflation climbed                                                                      amending the Bank of Thailand Act and Currency Act to
    toward the central bank’s 4 percent ceiling. The Bank of                                                                     allow the central bank to use the yields from currency
    Korea next reviews policy on Feb. 11 after joining                                                                           reserves to clear the principal of the debts.
    neighbors Thailand and India in extending interest-rate
    increases this month, acting on the same day the                                                                             Currently, the currency reserve stands at 36 billion baht.
    government announced price controls.
                                                                                                                                 "The debt is huge and we can't say it's all the central bank's
    “The slowing economy will likely make the central bank                                                                       burden because during the crisis we agreed to create this
    more careful about tightening rates,” said Kong Dong Rak,                                                                    debt in order to revive the economy. Therefore, we can't
    a fixed- income analyst at Taurus Investment & Securities                                                                    expect to clear [the debt] in five or seven years. If we work
    Co. in Seoul. “They don’t want to cool the economy with                                                                      on the law amendments, I think we could clear the debts in
    fast rate increases. We may see the next rate hike in March                                                                  20-30 years from now and then we need to issue new
    or April as the economy will likely slow down further in the                                                                 longer-term bonds to match the repayment period," said M.
    first quarter.”                                                                                                              R. Chatumongkol.

    The won fell 0.1 percent to 1,119.00 per dollar at the 9 a.m.                                                                Commenting on the overall economy, the former Bank of
    opening in Seoul, while the Kospi share index gained 0.5                                                                     Thailand governor agreed with the BoT's policy to focus on
    percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The                                                                        taming inflation in line with the regional trend because high
    won has risen 6.5 percent in the past 6 months, the                                                                          inflation would disrupt the economic growth in the long
    second-biggest climb in Asia, threatening trade                                                                              term.
    competitiveness      in     the    export-led      economy.
    (Source: Bloomberg)                                                                                                          He added that the depreciating Thai baht would benefit the
                                                                                                                                 export sector, which will in turn help maintain the economic
                                                                                                                                 expansion, even though it will add to inflationary pressures.
                                                                                                                                 (Source: Bangkok Post)

    FIDF deal possible next week:                  The Bank of
    Thailand board hopes to reach a conclusion with the
    Finance Ministry next week on how to deal with the 1.14-
    trillion-baht debt incurred from buying bad assets from
    financial institutions during the 1997 financial crisis, says
    chairman of the BoT board, M. R. Chatumongkol Sonakul.

    He said the central bank will call a meeting with Finance
    permanent secretary Areepong Bhoocha-oom to explore
    their options.

    During the 1997 crisis, the Financial Institutions
    Development Fund (FIDF) bailed out several banks and
    finance companies which suddenly became debt-ridden
    after the baht had been floated by issuing bonds.

    The central bank has since been responsible for repaying
    the principal of the bonds whenever it makes profit and the                                                                                             Market Strategists:
    Finance Ministry has paid the coupon.
                                                                                                                                                            Nalin Chutchotitham
    In recent years, however, the central bank has not made
                                                                                                                                                            Email: nalin.c@kasikornbank.com
    much profit and the ministry has become increasingly
    irritated by the huge amount to interest it had to pay each                                                                                             Tel: 02-470-3235
    year, at 60 billion baht last year.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         5
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Jan 26, 2011

                                                                                                       Economic Calendar
          Date / Time                   Country                                       Event                                      Period            Consensus                  Actual                  Prior                 Revised

       01/25/2011 06:00                      AU             Conference Board Leading Index                                        NOV                      --                  0.30%                  0.60%                      --
       01/25/2011 07:30                      AU             Consumer Prices (QoQ)                                                   4Q                  0.70%                  0.40%                  0.70%                      --
       01/25/2011 07:30                      AU             Consumer Prices (YoY)                                                   4Q                  3.00%                  2.70%                  2.80%                      --
       01/25/2011 07:30                      AU             RBA Trimmed Mean (QoQ)                                                  4Q                  0.70%                  0.30%                  0.60%                       --
       01/25/2011 07:30                      AU             RBA Trimmed Mean (YoY)                                                  4Q                  2.60%                  2.20%                  2.50%                      --
       01/25/2011 07:30                      AU             RBA Weighted Median (QoQ)                                               4Q                  0.70%                  0.50%                  0.50%                      --

       01/25/2011 07:30                      AU             RBA Weighted Median (YoY)                                               4Q                  2.50%                  2.30%                  2.30%                    2.40%
       01/25/2011 08:00                      PH             Total Imports (YoY)                                                    NOV                     --                 35.30%                 28.40%                      --
       01/25/2011 08:00                      PH             Total Monthly Imports                                                  NOV                     --                $4943.6M              $4888.4M                 $4890.3M
       01/25/2011 08:00                      PH             Trade Balance                                                          NOV                     --                 -$798M                 -$112M                   -$114M
       01/25/2011 10:30                      JN             BOJ Target Rate                                                      Jan-25                 0.10%                  0.10%                  0.10%                      --
       01/25/2011 13:00                      IN             India REPO Cutoff Yld                                                Jan-25                 6.50%                  6.50%                  6.25%                      --
       01/25/2011 13:00                      IN             Cash Reserve Ratio                                                   Jan-25                 6.00%                  6.00%                  6.00%                      --
       01/25/2011 13:00                      IN             Reverse Repo Rate                                                    Jan-25                 5.50%                  5.50%                  5.25%                      --
       01/25/2011 14:00                      GE             GfK Consumer Confidence Survey                                         FEB                    5.4                    5.7                    5.4                      5.5
       01/25/2011 14:45                      FR             Consumer Spending (MoM)                                                DEC                  0.30%                  0.60%                  2.80%                    2.70%
       01/25/2011 14:45                      FR             Consumer Spending (YoY)                                                DEC                  0.50%                  0.40%                  1.50%                      --
       01/25/2011 15:20                      TA             Money Supply M1B Daily Avg YoY                                         DEC                     --                  8.77%                  9.18%                      --
       01/25/2011 15:20                      TA             Money Supply M2 Daily Avg YoY                                          DEC                     --                  5.14%                  5.20%                      --
       01/25/2011 15:30                      HK             Exports YoY%                                                           DEC                 15.90%                 12.50%                 16.60%                      --
       01/25/2011 15:30                      HK             Imports YoY%                                                           DEC                 15.50%                 14.80%                 16.40%                      --
       01/25/2011 15:30                      HK             Trade Balance                                                          DEC                  -36.5B                 -43.5B                 -23.5B                     --
       01/25/2011 16:30                      UK             GDP (QoQ)                                                             4Q A                  0.50%                  -0.50%                 0.70%                      --
       01/25/2011 16:30                      UK             GDP (YoY)                                                             4Q A                  2.60%                  1.70%                  2.70%                      --
       01/25/2011 16:30                      UK             Public Finances (PSNCR)                                                DEC                   16.3B                 25.5B                  16.8B                    17.4B
       01/25/2011 16:30                      UK             PSNB ex Interventions                                                  DEC                   20.0B                 16.8B                  23.3B                    21.1B
       01/25/2011 16:30                      UK             Public Sector Net Borrowing                                            DEC                   18.0B                 15.3B                  22.8B                    19.7B
       01/25/2011 19:00                      CA             Consumer Price Index MoM                                               DEC                  0.10%                  0.00%                  0.10%                       --
       01/25/2011 19:00                      CA             Consumer Price Index YoY                                               DEC                  2.50%                  2.40%                  2.00%                       --
       01/25/2011 19:00                      CA             Bank Canada CPI Core MoM                                               DEC                  -0.10%                 -0.30%                 0.00%                      --
       01/25/2011 19:00                      CA             Bank Canada CPI Core YoY                                               DEC                  1.60%                  1.50%                  1.40%                      --
       01/25/2011 21:00                      US             S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Ind                                         NOV                     --                  143.85                145.32                   145.26
       01/25/2011 21:00                      US             S&P/CS 20 City MoM% SA                                                 NOV                  -0.80%                 -0.54%                -0.99%                   -1.00%
       01/25/2011 21:00                      US             S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY                                                NOV                  -1.60%                 -1.59%                -0.80%                   -0.84%
       01/25/2011 22:00                      US             Consumer Confidence                                                    JAN                     54                   60.6                   52.5                     53.3
       01/25/2011 22:00                      US             House Price Index MoM                                                  NOV                  0.00%                  0.00%                  0.70%                    0.20%
       01/25/2011 22:00                      US             Richmond Fed Manufact. Index                                           JAN                     22                     18                    25                       --
       01/26/2011 04:00                      SK             SK Consumer Confidence                                                 JAN                     --                    108                    109                      --
       01/26/2011 05:00                      US             ABC Consumer Confidence                                              Jan-23                   -42                    -44                    -43                      --
       01/26/2011 06:00                      SK             GDP at Constant Price (QoQ)                                           4Q P                  0.40%                  0.50%                  0.70%                      --
       01/26/2011 06:00                      SK             GDP at Constant Price (YoY)                                           4Q P                  4.60%                  4.80%                  4.40%                      --
    Source: Bloomberg




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         6
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.

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Kbank daily jan 26

  • 1. Capital Markets Research Jan 26, 2011 Thai Stock Market Jan 25 Change US Market Jan 25 Change SET Index 959.17 -4.51 Dow Jones 11,977.19 -3.33 Market Turnover (Bt mn) 40,703.65 +3,301.56 Nasdaq 2,719.25 +1.70 Foreign Net Position (Bt mn) +607.67 +4,657.16 S&P 500 1,291.18 +0.34 Thai Bond Market Jan 25 Change US 10 yr T-note (%) 3.33 -8 bp Total Return Index 200.86 -0.36 US 2yr T-note (%) 0.58 -5 bp Total Market Turnover (Bt mn) NYMEX crude ($/b) 86.19 -1.68 Yield Curve 1m 3m 6m 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 12yr 14yr 18yr Jan 25 (%) 2.01 2.07 2.26 2.54 2.91 3.15 3.32 3.59 3.82 3.97 4.06 4.17 Change (bp) 6 6 3 -2 3 7 3 3 2 5 4 0 Interbank Rates Jan 26 Jan 24 BIBOR 1w 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr Overnight (%) 2.25 2.050-2.210 Jan 25 2.26000 2.28016 2.33625 2.39125 2.49250 2.55000 2.65000 Repurchase Rates 1-day 7-day 14-day 1m SIBOR 1m 3m 6m Jan 25 2.25000 2.25000 - - Jan 25 0.27110 0.30900 0.46500 THBFIX (Ref.) 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr LIBOR 1m 3m 6m Jan 25 0.88288 0.96399 1.15134 1.40626 1.66283 1.89856 Jan 25 0.26000 0.30438 0.45469 SWAP (THB/THB,Onshore) 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 7yr 10yr Jan 26 Bid/Ask 1.80/1.84 2.50/2.54 3.00/3.04 3.36/3.40 3.60/3.64 3.95/3.99 4.26/4.30 KBank Counter Rates Buying Selling Premium/Discount (stgs/m) (against THB) Sight Bill T/T T/T Export/Import USD 30.67 30.77 31.02 0.45/3.06 EUR 41.8638 42.0000 42.5288 -2.16/1.05 GBP 48.3700 48.5288 49.1100 -0.01/2.48 JPY 0.3716 0.3729 0.3796 0.27/4.57 KBank Technical Analysis Jan 26 Jan 25 Support Resistance Trend Strategy THB (Onshore) 30.85 30.96 30.80 31.00 Sideway Sell USD near resistance JPY 82.08 82.2 81.80 82.60 Sideway Buy USD near support EUR/USD 1.3690 1.3689 1.3600 1.3730 Sideway Buy EUR near support Macro and Market Outlook • IMF raised forecast for global growth this year to 4.4% in its January update of World Economic Outlook from 4.2% in October, citing stronger recovery in the U.S. • U.K. GDP in the fourth quarter unexpectedly fell by 0.5% qoq after increasing by more-than- expected in Q3 by 0.7% - Pound fell • BoJ kept policy rate unchanged but raised growth outlook while India tightened monetary policy further to curb inflation FX Market Wrap • EUR/USD remained supported near its two-month high. The market is pricing in a faster interest rate hike by both the ECB and the BOE after inflation rates’ increases • USD/THB tested higher above 31.00 yesterday but heavy selling helped to push the pair down. Support seen for baht this morning after foreigners turned net-buyers of local stocks yesterday Economic News Update • South Korea’s economic growth slowed after industrial production moderated, reducing the central bank’s scope to damp inflation by raising borrowing costs again • BoT’s board hopes to reach a conclusion with the MOF next week on how to deal with the 1.14trn baht debt incurred from buying bad assets from financial institutions during 1997 crisis Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721) via K-BIZ Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours www.twitter.com/KBankFX www.facebook.com/KBankFX 1 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 2. KBank Daily Update Jan 26, 2011 Macro and Market Outlook US Treasuries and Thai rates Global stock market sentiment remained elevated but concerns for inflation in Asia and the Emerging Markets Treasuries fell, snapping a gain from yesterday, as remained an issue while every investor still has European economists said a government report today will show new- debt problem at the back of their minds. The U.S. President home sales increased for a second month. delivers his State of the Union speech this morning as the Five-year debt dropped for the first time in four days as the market is likely to focus on implications for job creation, U.S. prepared to auction $35 billion of the securities today, medium-term government debt reduction, healthcare the second of three note sales this week totaling $99 legislations among other issues. billion. Crude oil price continued to fall after Saudi Arabia’s The yield on the 10-year note climbed two basis points to minister said OPEC may raise production to support rising 3.35 percent as of 10:12 a.m. in Tokyo, according to global demand. Meanwhile, gold price remained beaten in BGCantor Market Data. Five-year yields advanced two recent trade as investors’ risk appetite increased and basis points to 1.96 percent. continued to shift funds into risky assets, especially Treasuries climbed yesterday, pushing yields on 10-year equities. debt down the most this year, as an official said President $/ounce $/barrel Barack Obama will propose a five-year freeze of non- 1500 95.0 security discretionary spending to help cap deficits. 1450 90.0 A government’s sale of $35 billion of two-year notes 1400 1350 85.0 yesterday attracted more demand than the average of the 1300 last 10 auctions of the securities. (Source: Bloomberg) 1250 80.0 1200 % % 75.0 1150 3.6 0.8 1100 70.0 3.4 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 0.7 3.2 Gold prices (LHS) WTI oil price (RHS) 3.0 0.6 2.8 Several key updates on the global economy need 2.6 0.5 mentioning today so we will not go into much detail. The 2.4 0.4 World Economic Forum begins today at Davos, 2.2 Switzerland, and would last for three days. We expect 2.0 0.3 same attention to world leaders’ perspectives of the Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 economic development from current situation. 10yr Treasury yield, % (left axis) 2yr Treasury yield, % (right axis) - Bank of Japan held policy rate in the 0 – 0.1% range Thai interest rate: Short-term interest rates as implied by and made no changes to its 5 trillion yen budget to buy the USD/THB FX swap market and Sibor USD continued to securities in the market. Although deflationary trends firm up, lifting short-term swap rates. remained a risk, the central bank raised growth forecast this year to 3.3% from earlier estimate of Meanwhile, auction results of the 3-year BoT bond 2.1%, in line with improvement in the global economy yesterday saw less than 1.0x of bid-coverage, indicating and outlook for corporate spending going forward. that appetite for bonds has not improved much. This could also be due to the poorer liquidity of BoT bonds in the - India’s central bank raised policy rates (repo and secondary market, however. The spread was rather large, reverse repo) up by another 25 bp yesterday, bringing while the average yield at 3.25% was about 20bp higher the rates up to 6.50% and 5.50%, respectively. India than government bond of similar maturity on the previous has one of the highest inflation rates in Asia and rising day. food prices continue to put India at risks. In history, Today’s auction of government bonds may still see better inflationary problems that eroded people’s spending results. power and savings had derailed governments before and hence the current administration is also placing a % THB fixing rates and IRS great emphasis on curbing price pressure. 2.75 2.50 - U.K. GDP in the fourth quarter unexpectedly fell by 2.25 2.00 0.5% qoq after increasing by more-than-expected in 1.75 Q3 by 0.7%. Compared to the same period last year, 1.50 the U.K.’s economy had grown by 1.7%, a slowdown 1.25 1.00 compared to the previous quarter’s growth of 2.7%. 0.75 0.50 - The IMF raised forecast for global growth this year to 1Wk 1M 2M 3M 6M 9M 1Y IRS 1Y IRS 2Y 4.4% in its January update of World Economic Outlook current 5-day ago 1-m ago 3-m ago from 4.2% in October. However, the supranational body continues to expect growth to remain uneven across the globe. It cited stronger recovery in the U.S. as a key ingredient for the upward revision while concerns for sovereign debt in the euro area continue. 2 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 3. KBank Daily Update Jan 26, 2011 Currency Movement FX Wrap Tue 25-Jan-11 Mon 24-Jan-11 % Change 1.42 USD/THB 30.95 30.91 +0.13 1.40 USD/JPY 82.17 82.47 -0.36 1.38 1.36 EUR/USD 1.370 1.364 +0.39 1.34 GBP/USD 1.5830 1.5994 -1.03 1.32 USD/CHF 0.9412 0.9486 -0.78 1.30 USD/SGD 1.2793 1.2808 -0.12 1.28 USD/TWD 29.02 29.05 -0.10 1.26 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 USD/KRW 1,119.0 1,118.0 +0.09 EUR/USD USD/PHP 44.49 44.45 +0.09 USD/IDR 9,054 9,058 -0.04 EUR/USD remained supported near its two-month high. GBP/USD fell, however, after U.K. reported poorer Q4 USD/MYR 3.051 3.054 -0.10 GDP growth than expected. The market is pricing in a USD/CNY 6.582 6.581 +0.02 faster interest rate hike by both the ECB and the BOE after Source: Reuters inflation rates in recent announcements are higher than the .FX Consensus Forecast central banks’ policy targets. Yields on 3-month interest Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 rate futures in Europe had risen sharply this month while remaining stable in the U.S.. The market expects FOMC USD/THB 30.87 28.30 28.00 statement tonight to reflect unchanged view of U.S. Fed USD/JPY 82.08 86.00 89.00 fund rates. EUR/USD 1.37 1.29 1.30 38.00 80 GBP/USD 1.58 1.55 1.59 37.50 81 USD/CNY 6.58 6.47 6.30 37.00 82 USD/SGD 1.28 1.27 1.24 36.50 83 USD/IDR 9,040 8,880 8,800 36.00 USD/MYR 3.05 3.02 2.96 35.50 84 USD/PHP 44.43 42.60 41.50 35.00 85 1-Dec 11-Dec 21-Dec 31-Dec 10-Jan 20-Jan USD/KRW 1,119 1,088 1,050 JPY/THB (LHS) USD/JPY (RHS, inverted axis) USD/TWD 29.03 29.05 28.55 AUD/USD 1.00 0.99 0.97 USD/JPY ended lower yesterday as U.S. treasury yields NZD/USD 0.77 0.77 0.76 declined, narrowing the spread between bonds of the two Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB nations. Currency Pair Targets USD/THB tested higher above 31.00 yesterday but heavy Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 selling helped to recover some gains in the baht. The baht is seen to be supported this morning after foreigners turned USD/THB 30.87 28.30 28.0 net-buyers of local stocks yesterday and regional EUR/THB 42.25 40.0 37.0 currencies remained on appreciating trend against the JPY/THB 37.60 34.70 29.5 greenback. GBP/THB 48.81 47.40 43.7 The slump in the SET index continued yesterday but it was CNY/THB 4.69 4.78 4.2 only down by 4 points, indicating some stabilization in the AUD/THB 30.77 27.4 26.0 near-term. There is a risk of further plunge, however, with the market eyeing support levels of 890-900 points. CHF/THB 32.77 29.6 27.7 Source: KBank, Bloomberg 31.50 31.30 KBank NEER Index 31.10 Current 98.86 30.90 30.70 YTD + 6.16% 30.50 vs 52 weeks ago + 5.23% 30.30 30.10 vs 1mth ago - 2.24% 29.90 vs 1 week ago - 0.14% 29.70 29.50 vs 1 day ago - 0.08% Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 vs long term average + 11.16% Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange USD/THB rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation 3 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 4. KBank Daily Update Jan 26, 2011 Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized Auction results of BoT Bonds Jan 25 Yield shift (bps) -40 -30 -20 -10 0 +10 +20 +30 +40 Bid- Tenor Amt. Accepted LB113A 2.10 2.11 2.12 2.13 2.14 2.15 2.16 2.18 1.94 Symbol Avg. Yield (%) coverage (yrs) (Bt mn) Range (%) ratio LB116A 2.72 2.62 2.51 2.41 2.31 2.21 2.11 2.00 1.65 BOT13NA 3.00 40,000 3.12/3.30 3.232700 0.96 LB11NA 3.60 3.32 3.05 2.77 2.50 2.22 1.95 1.67 1.15 CB11224C 0.08 25,000 2.00/2.06 2.040250 1.13 LB123A 4.21 3.84 3.46 3.08 2.70 2.33 1.95 1.57 0.94 CB11428B 0.25 22,000 2.08/2.14 2.103950 1.20 LB12NA 5.35 4.73 4.11 3.49 2.87 2.26 1.64 1.02 0.15 LB133A 6.00 5.25 4.51 3.76 3.01 2.27 1.52 0.77 -0.22 CB11728A 0.50 15,000 2.275/2.310 2.296090 2.23 LB137A 6.56 5.69 4.82 3.95 3.08 2.21 1.34 0.47 -0.65 Source: ThaiBMA LB13OA 7.00 6.03 5.07 4.10 3.14 2.17 1.21 0.25 -0.97 Auction Calendar of Government Bonds LB143A 7.35 6.32 5.29 4.26 3.23 2.20 1.17 0.14 -1.14 Tenor Amt. Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark LB145A 7.90 6.75 5.60 4.44 3.29 2.14 0.98 -0.17 -1.57 (yrs) (Bt mn) LB145B 7.90 6.75 5.60 4.44 3.29 2.14 0.98 -0.17 -1.57 LB21DA 11.08 7,000 26-Jan-11 17-Dec-21 - LB14DA 8.69 7.35 6.01 4.67 3.33 1.99 0.65 -0.69 -2.28 Source: ThaiBMA LB155A 9.46 7.93 6.40 4.87 3.35 1.82 0.29 -1.23 -3.01 Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds LB157A 9.31 7.82 6.33 4.84 3.35 1.87 0.38 -1.11 -2.85 Tenor Amt. LB15DA 10.29 8.56 6.82 5.09 3.36 1.62 -0.11 -1.84 -3.83 Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark (yrs) (Bt mn) LB167A 10.90 9.04 7.17 5.31 3.45 1.59 -0.28 -2.14 -4.25 CB11214A 0.04 90,000 27-Jan-11 14-Feb-11 - LB16NA 11.46 9.46 7.47 5.48 3.49 1.50 -0.49 -2.48 -4.72 CB11215A 0.04 85,000 28-Jan-11 15-Feb-11 - LB171A 11.53 9.53 7.53 5.53 3.53 1.54 -0.46 -2.46 -4.70 Source: ThaiBMA LB175A 12.08 9.96 7.83 5.71 3.58 1.46 -0.66 -2.78 -5.16 LB183A 13.20 10.81 8.42 6.04 3.66 1.27 -1.11 -3.49 -6.12 LB183B 12.90 10.59 8.28 5.97 3.66 1.35 -0.96 -3.27 -5.83 * Note that the MOF suspends auction of Treasury bills for two months LB191A 13.89 11.34 8.79 6.24 3.70 1.15 -1.39 -3.94 -6.73 during January – February 2011. This is due to the large amount of Treasury LB196A 14.83 12.04 9.26 6.48 3.69 0.91 -1.87 -4.65 -7.67 cash balance. LB198A 14.38 11.72 9.06 6.40 3.74 1.09 -1.57 -4.22 -7.13 LB19DA 14.94 12.15 9.37 6.59 3.80 1.02 -1.76 -4.54 -7.57 LB213A 16.07 13.02 9.97 6.93 3.88 0.84 -2.20 -5.24 -8.53 LB214A 15.93 12.92 9.91 6.91 3.90 0.89 -2.11 -5.11 -8.36 LB22NA 18.01 14.50 11.00 7.49 3.99 0.49 -3.01 -6.51 -10.26 LB233A 18.08 14.57 11.05 7.54 4.03 0.53 -2.98 -6.49 -10.24 LB236A 19.53 15.65 11.78 7.91 4.04 0.17 -3.69 -7.56 -11.67 LB244A 19.66 15.76 11.87 7.98 4.09 0.20 -3.68 -7.56 -11.69 LB24DA 20.26 16.22 12.18 8.14 4.10 0.07 -3.96 -7.99 -12.27 LB267A 20.79 16.63 12.48 8.32 4.17 0.02 -4.12 -8.27 -12.66 LB283A 22.04 17.58 13.12 8.66 4.21 -0.24 -4.69 -9.14 -13.83 LB296A 23.76 18.87 13.99 9.11 4.23 -0.64 -5.52 -10.38 -15.50 LB383A 28.02 22.08 16.15 10.23 4.31 -1.61 -7.52 -13.42 -19.57 LB396A 29.34 23.08 16.83 10.58 4.34 -1.89 -8.12 -14.35 -20.82 Average 12.97 10.61 8.25 5.89 3.53 1.17 -1.19 -3.54 -6.15 Source: KBank, Bloomberg KBank Rich – Cheap Model 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 -10.00 -20.00 -30.00 3 mth avg Now -40.00 LB296A LB113A LB116A LB11NA LB123A LB133A LB137A LB145B LB14DA LB155A LB15DA LB167A LB16NA LB175A LB183B LB191A LB196A LB198A LB19DA LB213A LB24DA LB267A LB283A LB396A Source: Bloomberg, KBank The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields 4 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 5. KBank Daily Update Jan 26, 2011 Late last year, both agreed to solve the issue by Economic News Update transferring the FIDF's assets to the ministry to help clear some of the principal. However, both have yet to appraise S. Korea Economic Growth Slowed in the the assets. Fourth Quarter: South Korea’s economic growth slowed after industrial production moderated, reducing the They are now working on drafting the fund-closing bill and central bank’s scope to damp inflation by raising borrowing seeking a consensus on asset appraisals. costs again. "Actually, both issues [asset evaluation and the draft] are Gross domestic product rose 0.5 percent in the three taxpayers' money transferred between two pockets. months through December from the previous quarter, when Personally, I don't think any dispute should arise. We it advanced 0.7 percent, the Bank of Korea said in Seoul should settle on a solution that benefit the people the most, today. The median estimate of 12 economists in a even though one of us stands to lose," said M. R. Bloomberg News survey was for a 0.4 percent gain. From a Chatumongkol. year earlier, GDP increased 4.8 percent. Since consolidating the central bank's reserve and Industrial output suffered the worst monthly decline in currency accounts is not possible, the focus should be on nearly two years last quarter even as inflation climbed amending the Bank of Thailand Act and Currency Act to toward the central bank’s 4 percent ceiling. The Bank of allow the central bank to use the yields from currency Korea next reviews policy on Feb. 11 after joining reserves to clear the principal of the debts. neighbors Thailand and India in extending interest-rate increases this month, acting on the same day the Currently, the currency reserve stands at 36 billion baht. government announced price controls. "The debt is huge and we can't say it's all the central bank's “The slowing economy will likely make the central bank burden because during the crisis we agreed to create this more careful about tightening rates,” said Kong Dong Rak, debt in order to revive the economy. Therefore, we can't a fixed- income analyst at Taurus Investment & Securities expect to clear [the debt] in five or seven years. If we work Co. in Seoul. “They don’t want to cool the economy with on the law amendments, I think we could clear the debts in fast rate increases. We may see the next rate hike in March 20-30 years from now and then we need to issue new or April as the economy will likely slow down further in the longer-term bonds to match the repayment period," said M. first quarter.” R. Chatumongkol. The won fell 0.1 percent to 1,119.00 per dollar at the 9 a.m. Commenting on the overall economy, the former Bank of opening in Seoul, while the Kospi share index gained 0.5 Thailand governor agreed with the BoT's policy to focus on percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The taming inflation in line with the regional trend because high won has risen 6.5 percent in the past 6 months, the inflation would disrupt the economic growth in the long second-biggest climb in Asia, threatening trade term. competitiveness in the export-led economy. (Source: Bloomberg) He added that the depreciating Thai baht would benefit the export sector, which will in turn help maintain the economic expansion, even though it will add to inflationary pressures. (Source: Bangkok Post) FIDF deal possible next week: The Bank of Thailand board hopes to reach a conclusion with the Finance Ministry next week on how to deal with the 1.14- trillion-baht debt incurred from buying bad assets from financial institutions during the 1997 financial crisis, says chairman of the BoT board, M. R. Chatumongkol Sonakul. He said the central bank will call a meeting with Finance permanent secretary Areepong Bhoocha-oom to explore their options. During the 1997 crisis, the Financial Institutions Development Fund (FIDF) bailed out several banks and finance companies which suddenly became debt-ridden after the baht had been floated by issuing bonds. The central bank has since been responsible for repaying the principal of the bonds whenever it makes profit and the Market Strategists: Finance Ministry has paid the coupon. Nalin Chutchotitham In recent years, however, the central bank has not made Email: nalin.c@kasikornbank.com much profit and the ministry has become increasingly irritated by the huge amount to interest it had to pay each Tel: 02-470-3235 year, at 60 billion baht last year. 5 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 6. KBank Daily Update Jan 26, 2011 Economic Calendar Date / Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior Revised 01/25/2011 06:00 AU Conference Board Leading Index NOV -- 0.30% 0.60% -- 01/25/2011 07:30 AU Consumer Prices (QoQ) 4Q 0.70% 0.40% 0.70% -- 01/25/2011 07:30 AU Consumer Prices (YoY) 4Q 3.00% 2.70% 2.80% -- 01/25/2011 07:30 AU RBA Trimmed Mean (QoQ) 4Q 0.70% 0.30% 0.60% -- 01/25/2011 07:30 AU RBA Trimmed Mean (YoY) 4Q 2.60% 2.20% 2.50% -- 01/25/2011 07:30 AU RBA Weighted Median (QoQ) 4Q 0.70% 0.50% 0.50% -- 01/25/2011 07:30 AU RBA Weighted Median (YoY) 4Q 2.50% 2.30% 2.30% 2.40% 01/25/2011 08:00 PH Total Imports (YoY) NOV -- 35.30% 28.40% -- 01/25/2011 08:00 PH Total Monthly Imports NOV -- $4943.6M $4888.4M $4890.3M 01/25/2011 08:00 PH Trade Balance NOV -- -$798M -$112M -$114M 01/25/2011 10:30 JN BOJ Target Rate Jan-25 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% -- 01/25/2011 13:00 IN India REPO Cutoff Yld Jan-25 6.50% 6.50% 6.25% -- 01/25/2011 13:00 IN Cash Reserve Ratio Jan-25 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% -- 01/25/2011 13:00 IN Reverse Repo Rate Jan-25 5.50% 5.50% 5.25% -- 01/25/2011 14:00 GE GfK Consumer Confidence Survey FEB 5.4 5.7 5.4 5.5 01/25/2011 14:45 FR Consumer Spending (MoM) DEC 0.30% 0.60% 2.80% 2.70% 01/25/2011 14:45 FR Consumer Spending (YoY) DEC 0.50% 0.40% 1.50% -- 01/25/2011 15:20 TA Money Supply M1B Daily Avg YoY DEC -- 8.77% 9.18% -- 01/25/2011 15:20 TA Money Supply M2 Daily Avg YoY DEC -- 5.14% 5.20% -- 01/25/2011 15:30 HK Exports YoY% DEC 15.90% 12.50% 16.60% -- 01/25/2011 15:30 HK Imports YoY% DEC 15.50% 14.80% 16.40% -- 01/25/2011 15:30 HK Trade Balance DEC -36.5B -43.5B -23.5B -- 01/25/2011 16:30 UK GDP (QoQ) 4Q A 0.50% -0.50% 0.70% -- 01/25/2011 16:30 UK GDP (YoY) 4Q A 2.60% 1.70% 2.70% -- 01/25/2011 16:30 UK Public Finances (PSNCR) DEC 16.3B 25.5B 16.8B 17.4B 01/25/2011 16:30 UK PSNB ex Interventions DEC 20.0B 16.8B 23.3B 21.1B 01/25/2011 16:30 UK Public Sector Net Borrowing DEC 18.0B 15.3B 22.8B 19.7B 01/25/2011 19:00 CA Consumer Price Index MoM DEC 0.10% 0.00% 0.10% -- 01/25/2011 19:00 CA Consumer Price Index YoY DEC 2.50% 2.40% 2.00% -- 01/25/2011 19:00 CA Bank Canada CPI Core MoM DEC -0.10% -0.30% 0.00% -- 01/25/2011 19:00 CA Bank Canada CPI Core YoY DEC 1.60% 1.50% 1.40% -- 01/25/2011 21:00 US S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Ind NOV -- 143.85 145.32 145.26 01/25/2011 21:00 US S&P/CS 20 City MoM% SA NOV -0.80% -0.54% -0.99% -1.00% 01/25/2011 21:00 US S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY NOV -1.60% -1.59% -0.80% -0.84% 01/25/2011 22:00 US Consumer Confidence JAN 54 60.6 52.5 53.3 01/25/2011 22:00 US House Price Index MoM NOV 0.00% 0.00% 0.70% 0.20% 01/25/2011 22:00 US Richmond Fed Manufact. Index JAN 22 18 25 -- 01/26/2011 04:00 SK SK Consumer Confidence JAN -- 108 109 -- 01/26/2011 05:00 US ABC Consumer Confidence Jan-23 -42 -44 -43 -- 01/26/2011 06:00 SK GDP at Constant Price (QoQ) 4Q P 0.40% 0.50% 0.70% -- 01/26/2011 06:00 SK GDP at Constant Price (YoY) 4Q P 4.60% 4.80% 4.40% -- Source: Bloomberg 6 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.