This document discusses key considerations for Ohio businesses looking to export to Brazil, focusing on political, economic, social, and technological factors (PEST analysis). It outlines three main issues that could impact a Brazilian business strategy: organizational structure, labor issues, and regulation/taxation. Finally, it looks at infrastructure, inflation/currency, and future regulatory changes that Ohio businesses should consider in Brazil for 2012 and beyond.
NewBase 19 April 2024 Energy News issue - 1717 by Khaled Al Awadi.pdf
2011 Ohio Hispanic Business Summit
1. Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
EXPORTING OHIO TO
LATIN AMERICA: A
BRAZILIAN CASE STUDY
dwilsonjdmba
dwilson@keglerbrown.com
David M. Wilson, Kegler Brown
2. Exporting Ohio to Latin America: A
Brazilian Case Study
Brazil: The Basics
P E S T
-Facts
-Opportunities
-Risks
3 Issues that could Make or Break your Brazilian Business
Strategy
-Organizational Structure
-Labor
-Regulation & Tax
2012 & Beyond
-Infrastructure
-Inflation & Currency
-Regulation
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
4. Brazil: The Basics
P E S T
What are the Political, Economic, Social and Technological
reasons to enter Brazil?
export, manufacture, distribute, design . . .
Political
Economic
Macro trends, Currency risks
Social
The ability of government to respond to and NOT create political
risk
The ability of stakeholders to identify vulnerabilities & apply
pressure to the company to change its behavior
Technological
Infrastructure, IP Protection, Government Incentives
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
5. Brazil: The Basics
P E S T
Political Risk
-The ability of government to respond to political risk
-The ability of government to NOT cause political risk
The unit of
measurement for
political risk is
STABILITY
Government Structure
Level of Corruption
Appropriation Concerns
Bureaucracy
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
6. Brazil: The Basics
P E S T
Political Risk
-The ability of government to respond to political risk
-The ability of government to NOT cause political risk
The unit of
measurement for
political risk is
STABILITY
Government Stability
Stable Republic Since 1985
Multiple Peaceful Elections
Democratic Constitution
Functioning Executive, Legislative and Judicial Branches
Multiple Party System
Increasingly developed services: Fire, Police, EMS
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
7. Brazil: The Basics
P E S T
The unit of
measurement for
political risk is
STABILITY
Political Risk
-The ability of government to respond to political risk
-The ability of government to NOT cause political risk
Level of Corruption
Transparency International 2010 CPI index
The abuse of entrusted power for private gain
Perception of corruption in public sector
2010 (most current
USA: 22 of 180
Brazil: 69 of 180
Apx. 62nd percentile
1995 (year 1 of CPI)
USA: 15 of 41
Apx. 63rd percentile
Denmark*
1st
USA
22nd
Brazil
69th
China
78th
India
87th
Russia
154th
Brazil: 36 of 41
Apx. 88th percentile
Apx .13th percentile
Rousseff Cleaning House
Jettisoned 5 cabinet members since June
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
8. Brazil: The Basics
P E S T
Political Risk
-The ability of government to respond to political risk
-The ability of government to NOT cause political risk
The unit of
measurement for
political risk is
STABILITY
Appropriation concerns
Long history of privatization & recent commitments
Talk of reviving old laws for a few categories
land restrictions on % of land in a district that foreigners may buy
1971 law found unconstitutional but is being revisited (no talk of taking
land)
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
9. Brazil: The Basics
P E S T
Political Risk
-The ability of government to respond to political risk
-The ability of government to NOT cause political risk
The unit of
measurement for
political risk is
STABILITY
Bureaucracy?
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
10. Brazil: The Basics
P E S T
Largest Latin American economy
7 largest in the World
Macro Trends
Developed financial markets
Young workforce
39.3%
United States
30.5%
Brazil
China
29.4%
Increasing domestic demand
Growing Middle Class
Over 35 million Brazilians entered the middle class from 2003 to 2009
estimates predict an additional 20 million will climb the ladder by 2014
Per Capita GDP larger than China or India
$10,816
China
$4,382
Brazil
India
$1,371
Rich Commodities Base – Energy, Mining, Agribusiness
Vies with Australia as worlds largest exporter of iron ore
Fertile Land: 1/3rd global coffee, ½ of all global sugarcane exports, major world player in beef, poultry, soybeans and corn
Recent oil field discovery 15bn to 70-100bn barrels
NPV of this discovery is apx $500bn apx 20% of GDP
Rainforest, Hydro
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
11. Brazil: The Basics
P E S T
Currency
General
Weak exchange rate generally makes a country’s exports cheaper
Central banks in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have recently
intervened to make their currencies cheaper
China continues to suppress the value of its currency to strengthen
exports
Brazilian Real
1.59 end of August, crossed 1.9 (intraday) September
Selling in September
Foreign investment attracted by high returns began to sell in September
largely due to fear of Greek crisis
notably Japan
Central bank lowered benchmark rate by .5%
Many view the valuation as stabilizing after >45% increase since
2008
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
12. Brazil: The Basics
P E S T
Currency Risk
Transaction exposure – commitment to make payment at future date
Solutions:
Translation exposure – accounting based changes in consolidated FS
Taking the value on 1 day and reporting on your statements
Solutions:
Forward Contracts
Risk Sharing Agreements
Foreign Currency Options
Swap (assets, debts, and/or liabilities with someone else, e.g., a bank or another
company)
Economic exposure – non zero changes in expected cash flows due to
changes in currency (real not just nominal)
Solutions:
Diversification
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
13. Brazil: The Basics
P E S T
How substantive is the
stakeholder?
Social Risk
-The ability of stakeholders to identify vulnerabilities & apply
pressure to the company to change its behavior
Stakeholders
How intense is the threat?
Shareholders, NGOs, Interest Groups, Consumers, Local
Communities. . .
Factors
Cultural Norms, Languages
“Culture eats strategy for breakfast” – Oded Shenkar
Demographics
GINI index (inequality of income)
Ethnic Conflict
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
14. Brazil: The Basics
Geert Hofstede’s Cultural
Dimensions
P E S T
Power Distance
Individualism
Masculinity
Uncertainty Avoidance
Long-Term Orientation
www.geert-hofstede.com
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
15. Brazil: The Basics
P E S T
How substantive is the
stakeholder?
Social Risk
-The ability of stakeholders to identify vulnerabilities & apply
pressure to the company to change its behavior
How intense is the threat?
Solutions
Decouple your brands / products
Partner with NGOs
Charge premium on specific brands for CSR projects, not all
consumers
Reputational benefit, they understand the industry and may help keep
you up to date with shifts in pressure
Admit Wrongs
People are more likely to believe your CSR reports when you tell
them what you are doing wrong (and how you addressing it)
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
16. Brazil: The Basics
P E S T
How substantive is the
stakeholder?
Social Risk
-The ability of stakeholders to identify vulnerabilities & apply
pressure to the company to change its behavior
How intense is the threat?
Education
Past
2000
- ½ Brazilian students graduated grade school
- 3 out of 4 adults were functionally illiterate
Present
-Goal to reach OECD standard over next
decade
-75,000 scholarships to attend world’s top
universities (only 9,000 a few months ago)
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
17. Brazil: The Basics
P E S T
Technological
Infrastructure
Power
Public Health
IP Protection
Codified IP law protected by the Brazilian Constitution
Rights are enforceable
Industrial Property Law, Law No. 9279, as amended (May 15, 1996)(Braz).
Provides for contracts involving technology transfer, technical and scientific
services, franchising and protection against unfair competition
Instituto Nacional da Propriedade Industrial (INPI)
Federal agency in charge of regulating and registering
patents, trademarks, industrial designs, approving licensing and other agreements
Copyright Law, Law No. 9610, as amended (Feb 20, 1998)(Braz).
Regulates Brazilian Copyrights and some Software Law
Patent holder is entitled to prevent others from using, producing, selling, offering, or
importing a patented product or process
Patent holder is entitled to be indemnified for improper use
Government Incentives
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
18. 3 Issues that can Make or Break
Your Brazilian Business Strategy
Entry Method & Organizational Structure
Labor
Regulation & Tax
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
19. Entry Method & Organizational
Structure
Wholly
Owned Subsidiaries
Non-Equity Alliance
Licensing
agreements
Supply agreements
Distribution agreements
Non-Equity joint venture
Stable Brazilian legal system
leads to fairly predictable results
– but you may not always like
them
Heads of Agreement (Similar to US Memo of
Understanding)
Equity
Joint
Alliance
venture
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
20. Entry Method & Organizational
Structure
Wholly owned subsidiary
Foreign capital in Brazil treated quite liberally
Current legislation does not distinguish between domestic & foreign
owned companies
Investments may be freely made & are not subject to any prior
approval, license or authorization from authorities
No max or min limit on investment amount
Levels if wish to employee non-Brazilians
No max or min term for the investment (repatriate anytime)
Amounts paid by a Brazilian company to a foreign investor are NOT
subject to any withholding tax
But must be registered with Central Bank’s online system
Amounts over the initial registration are generally treated as capital gains
and subject to 15% tax (25% if investor resides in a tax haven)
Foreign investors are free to use any of the available company
forms
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
21. Entry Method & Organizational
Structure
Sociedade Limitada (LTDA)
Sociedade Anônima (SA)
Sociedade Simples
Sociedade em Nome Coletivo
Sociedade em Comandita Simples
Sociedade em Comandita por ações
Sociedade em Comum
Sociedade em conta de Participação
Associações
Fundações
Cooperativas
Consórcio
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
22. Entry Method & Organizational
Structure
Sociedade Limitada (LTDA)
Similar to US LLC
Liability limited to partner’s quotas
Simplicity & Flexibility
Reduced Maintenance Costs
Less Formal Requirements
Must have at least 2 partners
Brazilian partners are not required
May be managed by one or more persons, partners or other entity
Quotas may be freely transferred according to the articles of association
May not be traded publicly
Manager must reside in Brazil
If foreign manager, must possess a permanent Brazilian Visa with authorization to act as
manager of a specific company
Generally preferred for wholly owned subsidiaries
Sociedade Anônima (SA)
Similar to US Corporation
May issue securities, debentures and may be publicly held
Higher Maintenance Costs
More formal requirements
Generally preferred for ventures comprised of a large number of different shareholder
groups
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
23. Entry Method & Organizational
Structure
Distributorship & Agency Relationships
Brazilian agency relationships is governed by the Brazilian Civil Code
and by special legislation, Law n. 4.886/1965
Exclusivity is NOT presumed unless expressly established in an
agency agreement
However exclusivity is common and will likely be required by potential
agents
Exclusivity entitles the agent to compensation related to direct sales
made by the company without assistance of the agent
Termination
There are specific enumerated “just” reasons for the termination of an
agency agreement
Termination is typically both difficult & costly
Generally, an agent is entitled to no less that 1/12th of the total amount
received during the time of agency or an amount equal to the monthly
average compensation received multiplied by the remaining months left
in the agency contract term.
An agent is also generally entitled to reimbursement for
investments, such as office rent and equipment expenses
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
24. Entry Method & Organizational
Structure
Joint Venture
May be created with or without a joint company
Contractual joint ventures between your LTDA/SA and a
Brazilian company
Low cost entry and exit to new markets, industries and
industry segments
Opportunity for learning
Provides a contractual framework for operations without
generating the problems associated with an agency
relationship
Enables each party to take full responsibility for its
contribution to the venture while minimizing the issues
associated with exclusivity
Enables low cost entry and exit
May later evolve into equity alliance
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
25. Entry Method & Organizational
Structure
Should you vertically integrate?
Transaction Costs
Is the exchange subject to high threats of opportunism due
to high transaction specific investments?
Is the exchange subject to high threats of opportunism due
to uncertainty and complexity?
Capabilities
Some or all of the value chain, acquire rather than joint
venture
Do you have valuable, rare and costly to imitate
resources?
Real Options
To retain flexibility: exchanges characterized by high levels
For additional information on
of uncertainty should Jay B. Barney, this topic please reference: Gaining & Sustaining Competitive Advantage
vertically integrated
Third Edition, not be 2007
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
26. Labor – It’s more than just the 13th
salary
Labor rights are outlined in the Brazilian Constitution, as well
as laws, decrees, provisional measures, ordinances and
regulations, international conventions and treaties (ratified by
the Brazilian government), company policies, Supreme Court
decisions, Superior Labor Court decisions and customs
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
27. Labor – It’s more than just the 13th
salary
Basic Principals
Worker Protection: the worker is considered the weaker
party in the relationship
In labor-related conflicts, at any level or
jurisdiction, whenever there is a doubt regarding
evidence, the court’s decision will favor the worker
The law most favorable to the worker will be applied
The conditions most favorable to the worker will be presumed
Actual facts prevail over written documents
Protected salary (generally cannot lower an employee’s
salary)
Defense of workers honor and ethical code
Nondiscriminatory practices
Continuity of employment relationship
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
28. Labor – It’s more than just the 13th
salary
Direct agreements between employees and employers to resolve
conflicts are not valid
The Brazilian constitution provides the right to sue as an individual
guarantee
There are ways to settle
Every 12 months employees are entitled to 30 calendar days paid
vacation
Arbitration, union conciliation commissions. . .
but they do NOT prevent the right of individual claims
In addition to the 13th salary (Christmas bonus equal to 1/12 the salary
for each month of that year)
Every month employer must deposit an amount = to 8% of
employees salary into Unemployment Fund
If employee is dismissed without cause, the employee may withdraw the
amount
Employer must pay a penalty equal to 40% of the amount and an
additional 10% to the government
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
29. Labor – It’s more than just the 13th
salary
Not at will
30 days prior notice (some agreements may require longer period of time)
Notice shall specify whether the 30 days must be worked or not worked
If worked may be absent for 7 consecutive days or may leave 2 hours early every day
For cause if:
A dishonest act
Improper conduct
Regularly doing business on behalf of himself or for a third party
Criminal conviction
Inadequate discharge of duty
Habitual drunkenness
Currently debate on this cause; many courts consider it a social problem and not a just
cause
Violation of trade secrets
Act of disobedience or insubordination
Abandonment of employment
Injurious act to the honor of any person during working hours (except in self defense)
Persistent gambling
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
30. Labor – It’s more than just the 13th
salary
Brazilian v. Non-Brazilian
Staff of companies with three or more employees
must be 2/3 Brazilian
And, at least 2/3rds of the payroll must be paid to Brazilians
Salaries paid to employees in Brazil cannot be based
on foreign currency
Federal, State and Municipal Taxes
Contribution for Financing Social Security COFINS
7.6% calculated based on gross revenue from the sale of
goods or services
Contribution to the Social Integration Plan PIS
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
31. Regulation & Tax
Import
Export Process
Minimum Wage
Privatization
Recent Tax & Regulation Changes
“If you’re honest and want to comply with the tax
code, you need an accountant and a tax lawyer for life”
-The Economist, September 24, 2011 quoting a São Paulo based
economist
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
32. Regulation & Tax
Import Export Process
Register with the governmental registration system
Obtain importing license if required
Automatic
Non-Automatic (process may take several months)
ANVISA, IBAMA, MAPA, DECEX, CNEN, ANP, ANEEL, DPF, COMEX, MCT .
..
Radar
Secretary of Foreign Trade SECEX, SISCOMEX system
Subject to significant variability
Simplified
Ordinary
Tax / Duty
Generally all imports are subject to import duty, IPI, ICMS, PIS and COFINS
Import duty is calculated on the total CIF (cost, insurance & freight)
Are charged based on the tariff classification of the product
Import Tariffs rage from 0 – 35% with an average applied tariff rate of 11.5%
The import duty rate for machinery and equipment not produced local MAY be
reduced to 2% upon request of the importer to the competent authorities
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
33. Regulation & Tax
MERCOSUL
southern common market
Free from import duty with certificate of origin
However Exceptions to Common External Tariff (CET)
Brazil is permitted 93 exceptions to the CET
June, 2009 the trade minister raised several import duty
rates:
August, 2009 MERCOSUL members approved tariff
increases on hundreds of products within the CET
Primarily dairy, textiles, bags, backpacks, suitcases up
to the bound level apx 31.4%
Member
Countries
Brazil
Argentina
Uruguay
Paraguay
Applied
Venezuela
Not yet ratified by
Paraguay
Associate
Member
Bolivia
Chile
Columbia
Ecuador
Peru
Observer of
Agreement
Mexico
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
34. Regulation & Tax
Recent Tax Changes
July, 2011
August, 2011
1% tax on foreign derivatives
Three prong plan to continue to spur economic growth
September, 2011
30% Increase in industrial product tax on cars (37-55%)
Exempt if 65% domestic parts (Brazil, Mexico or
Mercosul country)
Oct 6, 2011 Renault SA announced plans to increase its
Brazilian production capacity by 100,000 vehicles
Brazil will be the companies 2nd largest market after France
Expects sales of 3 million vehicles annually by 2013 with
25% from Brazil
October 10, 2011 Chinese auto maker JAC announced it
would build a factory in Brazil – output set to begin in
2014
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
35. Regulation & Tax
Minimum Wage
January
2012 increases 14%
Currently
R$ 545 per month x 13 (US$ 12,540)
Likely to reach R$ 817 per month by 2015
(US$18,800)
54
million Brazilians at min wage level
Increased domestic demand
Likely
increases consumption
Risks
Some
industries may see significant increases in
3 Make or
Brazil: The
2012 and
Break
COGS
Basics
Beyond
Issues
36. Regulation & Tax
Privatization
Infrastructure Need
Auction method
Airports
São Gonçalo do Amarante Airport – R$ 170 million (3x reserve)
3 more by end of 2011
Oilfield Rights
The Brazilian President’s office emphasized, “[t]he government does not
intend to get involved in these investments. These investments are going
to be a long-term, private sector affair. The private sector must play a key
role.”
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
38. Infrastructure
Unlike the United States, Brazil is only beginning to develop
its infrastructure capabilities
Domestic Growth
2014 World Cup
2016 Olympics
President Rousseff
Infrastructure background
Lula’s Program for Accelerated Growth Coordinator and is known for
her technical analysis
History of funding with private capital
Opportunities exist for
US companies with capabilities to assist in infrastructure
development
US companies that already possess the ability to
design, develop, manufacture or deliver goods
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
39. Infrastructure
Logistics
Rail
ALL
ANTT road & rail regulator
Creating and paving many connecting routes
Air
Privatization
Recent concessions changes enables competitors to pay ALL an
access fee
Road
Monopoly on rail concessions it operates
Excess capacity (profitable lines at near full capacity
Operations, construction opportunities
Telecom
30% of households have broadband
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
40. Inflation, Currency, Macro
Trends
Inflation
Analyst’s views very on inflation: 2012-2013 Range: low 3% to
high 6%
Factors
Disagreements largely relate to labor productivity and fiscal accounts
Significant FDI lured by high interest rates and growth
Government Focus
Education
Increases in productivity
Increases in the pool of educated labor decreases wage pressure
which reduces inflation concerns
Reduce Costs
Eliminated Payroll taxes for labor intensive industries like furniture
and textiles in August
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
41. Inflation, Currency, Macro
Trends
GDP Projections: mid to high single digit growth in 2013
GDP Gap
Min wage increase .6% + reduction in tax revenues from new industrial
policies .4% = 1% GDP gap from expenditures & decrease of tax revenues
New Oil fields provide wealth to help fund infrastructure investment
Involvement of private sector capital in infrastructure development may reduce
need for Government infrastructure expenditures (Increased privatization and
licensing likely)
Many analysts agree that the
main risk for the Brazilian
economy is not local, rather
the potential deterioration of
Impact of E.U.
the E.U.
Greek debt default and general credit drop of the EU which triggers a regional
recession will likely also reduce growth in the US and China
This reduction in global demand will likely lead to decreased commodity prices
The impact of external noise would likely be smoothed by Brazilian fiscal and
monetary counter cyclical policies; however, GDP growth would likely
decrease to 2-3% in 2013
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
42. Inflation, Currency, Macro
Trends
Currency
Largely
dependent on EU crisis
If
no EU recession and developed banks print more
money this increased liquidity will likely keep rates low
for several years. This will likely lead to increased
Brazilian Real appreciation
Many analysts project as strong as BR$1.5 to US$1
If
global distress then Brazilian Real could likely
weaken to 1.7 or worse
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
43. Inflation, Currency, Macro
Trends
Macro Trends
Min Wage
2012, 14% min wage increase – 54 million
receive min wage
Should support consumption and prevent downside
demand pressures
January
Even if EU recession, unlikely that Brazil will experience
recession
Consumption is a high % of the Brazilian economy
May
impact cost of labor and COGS in your industry
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
44. Regulation
A Bigger Brazil:
US$
16 Billion in tax breaks (over 2 years)
Eliminate
Buy
3 prong plan to continue to spur economic growth
payroll taxes for labor intensive industries
Software, Textiles, Shoes, Furniture
Brazil Initiative
Allows
government agencies to pay up to 25% more
for locally produced products than similar foreign
goods
Particularly when purchasing for defense, health, or high
tech communications equipment
Subsidized
Loan Programs
Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
45. Brazil: The
Basics
3 Make or
Break
Issues
2012 and
Beyond
EXPORTING OHIO TO
LATIN AMERICA: A
BRAZILIAN CASE STUDY
dwilsonjdmba
dwilson@keglerbrown.com
David M. Wilson, Kegler Brown
46. Additional Sources
UBS Investment Research: Emerging Economic Focus, UBS, August 29, 2011
A Closer Look at Brazil’s Credit Boom, Deutsche Bank EM Special Publication, July
22, 2011
Anchoring, De-Anchoring, Re-Anchoring, Bradesco Corretora Economics BBI Equity
Research, September 6, 2011
Economic Outlook: Brazil, BBVA, Third Quarter 2011
Brazil Auctions Rights to Airport, WSJ, August 23, 2011
The Geopolitics of Brazil: An Emergent Power’s Struggle with
Geography, STRATFOR, July 14, 2011
The Aging World, Ned Davis Research Inc, July 21, 2011
Japanese Dump Real Funds at Fastest Pace Since Earthquake: Brazil
Credit, Bloomberg, September, 30, 2011
First they went for the currency, now for the land, The Economist, September
24, 2011
Gaining & Sustaining Competitive Advantage Third Edition, Jay B. Barney, 2007
Privatization and the Distribution of Assets and Income in Brazil, Economic Reform
Project: Global Policy Program, July, 2000
Editor's Notes
Simply a framework to discus macro level factors, how you evaluate the factors will differ based on your organizations industry, strategy, competencies and goals; however, I try to pose a general question that you can ask yourself to begin the analysis and help identify what additional information and factors you should research
-First elections under the new constitution were not held until 1989-several parties (over a dozen) are represented in Congress
-Denmark is tied for 1st with New Zealand & Singapore-Scale is 10 – 1 , 10 is best-Somalia is worst
-Privatization for quite some time, significant amount began 1991 when government launched its “federal privatization program” reduced its 186 firms and -steady and as recent as 2010 $70B equity offering of Petrobras (ranked as largest security offering of any kind)-August of 2011 began privatizing Airports -Plan to privatize 3 more likely by end of the year and rights to oilfield
-Ask for story from audience -Share some ANVISA story-Time, communication, Tariff classifications, changes in Tariff rates, Changes in % required for taxation -End with its getting better, but stress there is still a long way to go
Brazil Nominal GDP 2.09 T, US apx 15T2010 7.5% growth2011 even with EU issues, projected to grow steadily at at least 3.5%Source BradescoGDP & Per Capita GDP source 2010 IMF numbers1/3rd global coffee, ½ of all global sugarcane exports, major world player in beef and poultry, soybeans and corn
What affects GDPPrice of aggregate goods and services (not just the price of a good, but the average of all goods in the economy)We use CPI (it’s a basket of goods)When price goes up, then inflation3 ways to measure (production approach-add the sums of value added through supply chain, expenditure approach-only look at sale of final goods & services, income approach-ignores imputed income)
Highlight this slide & mention it may be useful for them to come back to and analyze for their particular situation
-OECD, organization for economic co-operation & development (primarily wealthy countries, or the countries we traditionally think of as wealthy, with current EU crisis, as I’m sure Angela Merkel would argue, that is debatable.-in 2000 these countries decided to quantify what children were learning in school (Program for International Student Assessment-at the time of the initial study (as the most recent issue of the economist highlights) only ½ Brazilian children completed grade school and 3 out of 4 adults were functionally illiterate. -since enrolled in the study have shown solid gains-Brazil has set a goal to reach the OECD standard over the next decade -Dilma 75,000 scholarships-roughly 80 countries in current tests and Brazil ranks in the low 50s above the bottom 3rd (but not too far, 35 percentile)
Source: Industrial Property Law, Law No. 9279, as amended (May 15, 1996)(Braz).
-list of several available organizational structures
-Judicial treatment must be granted to foreign & domestic capital under the same terms-few areas are subject to restrictions (5) post office, real estate on international borders an certain countryside districts AND (3) with some limitations financial services, media -registration provides basis for expatratiaton and computation of any eventual capital gain tax
-list of several available organizational structures
-Judicial treatment must be granted to foreign & domestic capital under the same terms-few areas are subject to restrictions
Some non-automatic, Brazilian environmental agency, used materials, restricted & tax benefits, RadarSimplified 150,000 import / 300,000 export from brazil every 6 monthsOrdinary real location, employees, volume of operation depends on investment
-Venezuela signed membership agreement in 2006, not yet ratified
Sources:-Third quarter 2011 BBVA analyst report-August 29, 2011 UBS investment research report-September 6, 2011 Bradesco Corretora Weekly BBI Equity Research
Sources:-Third quarter 2011 BBVA analyst report-August 29, 2011 UBS investment research report-September 6, 2011 Bradesco Corretora Weekly BBI Equity Research
-payroll tax break may be extended-payroll tax breaks will be partially offset by additional 1.5% tax companies will pay on sales
-payroll tax break may be extended-payroll tax breaks will be partially offset by additional 1.5% tax companies will pay on sales