1. http://www.wikinvest.com/concept/China's_Aging_Population
China's Aging
Population
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Contents
1 China's Aging Population
o 1.1 Higher Mortality Prior to 1962
o 1.2 Improved Healthcare
2 Opportunities for Pharmaceutical Companies
3 The Aging of China Population: Lower Mortality and
The One-Child policy
o 3.1 Growing Pension Problem
4 China’s Future Compared to the Developed World
5 How is the Chinese Government Going to Pay For Its
Aging Population?
6 How Will China Compete Once Its Population Ages?
Np1
The Chinese population is rapidly aging, due to a lower mortality rate and the one child policy. This will lead to a
pension problem for the Chinese government and may reduce China's ability to compete in the future. At the same
time, this creates a growing market for healthcare products and services in China.
Advances in healthcare and nutrition, combined with the one child policy, have led to rapid aging of China's
population. Just as the rise of the Baby Boomers had placed an indelible mark on the U.S. economy, China's
demographic shift to an older society will have a profound impact on the Chinese economy and investment
opportunities in China. Western pharmaceutical manufacturers may be able to sell more offerings for older adults in
China, while the Chinese government may need to alter its budgetary policy to accommodate heightened expenses.
China's Aging Population
One of the key factors in China’s population spurt, from slightly more than 500 million in 1949 to its present
population (as of mid-2007) of 1.32 billion is its rapidly falling mortality rate. This increase in lifespan and the aging of
China's population with over 11% of the population over the age of 65 in 2020
[1]
, has future implications in healthcare

2. costs, pensions, and the capacity of its workforce.Recently to fight this trend Shanghai ( the largest city in China)
reversed its one child policy.
Higher Mortality Prior to 1962
After World War Two and the Nationalist’s departure to Taiwan, peace largely reigned on China’s mainland, however
one manmade event triggered a great population loss in China. Specifically, Mao’s homegrown industrial policy
implemented during the Great Leap Forward (part of China’s Second Five Year Plan: 1959-1962) lead to somewhere
between 14 million and 43 million deaths, mostly due to famine. Afterwards, China’s population continued to climb.
Improved Healthcare
From 1990 to 2000 the average expected lifespan of the Chinese people had increased nearly three years, from
68.55 in 1990 to 71.4 in 2000. At the same time, the pregnancy and infant mortality rate decreased by 3.1 percent.
During this time, childhood nutrition made significant strides, increasing both the average height and weight of
Chinese children.
China’s mortality rate is bi-modal. Urban Chinese residents have an expected lifespan of nearly 6 years greater than
rural residents. This may be attributable to greater access to modern healthcare in urban areas, as well as a higher
income and thus higher standard of living of urban dwellers. There has always been a weight difference between
children in rural versus urban area, although this has decreased somewhat in recent years, according to a 2005
report by the People’s Daily newspaper.
While diet and nutrition conditions for the rural and urban residents have improved dramatically over the last twenty
five years, new ailments have begun to emerge. The occurrence rate of high blood pressure in rural areas has risen
and the number of urban adults residents suffering from diabetes has risen from 4.6 percent to 6.4 percent.
Researchers from Tulane University recently determined that more than 155 million adults in China have increased
total cholesterol levels, and another 117 million have high levels of bad cholesterol.
Opportunities for Pharmaceutical Companies
Drug sales into China represent an opportunity for companies like :
 Pfizer (the maker of Lipitor, aka atorvastatin), Merck (the manufacturer of Zocor, aka simvastatin; and Mevacor,
aka lovastatin), Bristol-Myers Squibb (the manufacturer of Pravachol, aka pravastatin), Novartis (the
manufacturer of Lescol, aka fluvastatin), and AstraZeneca (the manufacturer of Crestor, aka rosuvastatin).
 GlaxoSmithKline's Advair, or Schering Plough and Novartis' jointly-marketed Foradil are popular asthma drugs
which could be used the rising respiratory ailment problems in China. Drugs for treating non-small cell lung
cancer could see higher demand.

3. hi all i just wanted to say hi and say have a happy halloween
The Aging of China Population: Lower Mortality and The One-Child policy
China’s lower mortality rate, when combined with the one-child policy, has resulted in a dramatic aging of China’s
overall population. By 2005, citizens over 65 years of age rose to 6.96 percent of the whole population. According to
the New England Journal of Medicine, the rapid decrease in China’s birth rate, combined with stable or improving life
expectancy, has led to an increasing proportion of elderly people and an increase in the ratio between elderly parents
and adult children. By 2020, over 23 percent of China’s citizenry is expected to be over age 65, resulting in a major
challenge to China’s medical and social insurance system. A graph of China’s population in 2020, according to United
Nations Population Division projections is shown below:
Figure 1
Source: United Nations Population Division
Family planning policies have become somewhat more relaxed in an effort to smooth out the population’s aging.
In rural areas, couples have been allowed to have a second child if the first was a girl and minority groups can now
have up to three children. In urban areas, if a couple is both from a one-child family, they are now allowed to have a
second child, provided that it is at least four years later than the first child. Nonetheless, according to University of
California at Irvine Sociology Professor Wang Feng, at present, 63 percent of Chinese couples are still limited to one
child under existing policies.

4. Growing Pension Problem
Even if China had a greater population of young people to fund retirement for the burgeoning older class, pension
coverage is available only to those employed in the government sector and large companies. Thus, children are
responsible for the retirement of many parents. According to the Asia Pacific Population Journal, the lack of adequate
pension coverage in China means that financial dependence on offspring is still necessary for approximately 70
percent of elderly people. This problem is nicknamed the "4:2:1" phenomenon, highlighting the idea that meaning that
an increasing numbers of couples are now responsible for the care of just one child, but four parents.
The Population Development Review reported in 2002 that initiatives are under way to improve access to government
pensions and to encourage saving for private pensions in an attempt to reduce the burden of the 4:2:1 phenomenon.
The ability of urban parents who are only-children to have more than one child themselves may somewhat reduce
this burden. The United Nations Population Division (UNPD) forecasts that the turning point for greater burdens -
comprised of both child dependency costs and elderly dependency costs - on the working population is 2010. By
2050, the UNPD forecasts that Chinese workers will have a 70 percent greater elderly dependency burden than
today, combined with a significantly lower child dependency burden.
China’s Future Compared to the Developed World
In the UNPD’s "medium" scenario, the median age of China’s population in 2050 will be forty-five years old —about
15 years higher than today’s median population age. This means that over a third of the citizens of that future China
would be sixty or older. According to UNPD projections, China’s population half a century from now would be more
elderly than the future populations of countries like Denmark, Finland, and Norway, despite the fact that those
Scandinavian countries are already "gray" today.
The difference is that China’s per capita income is significantly lower and it is already facing these “Developed
Country” problems due to its implementation of the one-child policy. By comparison, other developing countries like
India and Indonesia continue to boast high birthrates and are expected to have, on average, a younger population
than China in the coming decades. According to Chao the population is expected to have a dramatic decrease. By
2050 the population of China is expected to be 1.395 billion.
How is the Chinese Government Going to Pay For Its Aging Population?
At present, China has a significant foreign exchange surplus and its citizens have a high savings rate. If China can
invest its savings at a sufficiently high rate of return, this will help finance flow pension shortfalls thereafter.
Compared to many countries, China has a relatively low amount of debt outstanding. Official Chinese government
debt is slightly more than 30% of GDP. Of course, astute observers are quick to point out that the Chinese
government also bears the liability of fixing its banking system, which has proliferating non-performing loans to state

5. enterprises. Fitch recently estimated China's non-performing loan at $673 billion, but it warned that, given vagaries in
Chinese accounting and reporting, $673 billion is a low number. While some analysts estimate that China’s bank
cleanup could cost as much as 20% to 30% of GDP in over the coming decade, there is still room for China to borrow
more than it does at present, if necessary to cover its social welfare expenses, in the short-term, as the population
ages. This could impact interest rates in the U.S.
Another source of income for the Chinese government is its assets. Unlike many other developing countries, the
government owns the lion’s share of the country’s assets. As of 2003, China’s national and local governments held at
least a majority share in more than 150,000 enterprises, representing an asset value (on a balance sheet basis) of
nearly 10 trillion yuan. Given that many loss-making state enterprises were already shuttered in the 1990s, it is likely
that many of these assets generate at least breakeven, and perhaps positive cash flow. As such, they may be worth
more than 40% of China’s GDP if they were privatized. These asset sales could be a potent source of funds for the
Chinese government to cover increased social costs from an aging population.
How Will China Compete Once Its Population Ages?
According to a recent survey by the Ministry of Labor and Social Security manufacturers in the Yangtze and Pearl
River Deltas are reporting labor shortages of 10% or more. Many migrant laborers from inland areas are returning
home after working several years on the coast and building a nest egg to invest back home. China’s breakup of rural
communes in the early 1980s means that many rural families have a long-term lease on their own farm, thus migrant
works have a destination to which they can return. Because many migrant workers are the only child in their families,
there is an extra strong family desire for them to return home to live near family.
As China’s workforce ages, young workers will be even less available and China’s manufacturing and services
sectors will be forced to keep existing workers for a longer tenure or find older workers. This could also slowdown the
ability for China to be an outsource supplier for developed countries. Either of these approaches will raise labor costs.
Ultimately, it means that China will no longer be able to rely solely on inexpensive labor to fuel its growth. Instead,
China may only be able to grow in line with the growth of its labor force. China may try to respond by moving more
into electronics and other medium-tech industries, however increased investment in China’s labor force and
management cadre is necessary before such a transformation can be successful.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-10/08/content_11386032.htm
Society
China's aging population needs care system
By Li Yao (chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2010-10-08 16:01
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6. China urgently needs to establish a social care insurance system, a researcher at the Chinese
Academy of Social Sciences said on Monday at an international symposium on protecting the rights
of people with disabilities.
Liu Cuixiao, an expert at the Academy's law institute, identified three reasons why the country needs
to create a welfare system.
"Demographic ageing is accelerating in China, and concentrated in its rural areas," Liu said.
By the end of 2009, the number of Chinese aged 60 and above reached 167 million, 12.5 percent of
the total population. This number will climb to 248 million by 2020, and the yearly increase will jump
from the current 3.11 million to 8 million, according to Liu.
Liu estimated by 2030, people aged 65 and above in rural areas will account for 13 percent of
China's rural population, rising to 19 percent in 2040.
"A large number of the elderly in China are extremely frail and need proper care," Liu said. The
elderly face higher risks of cerebrovascular diseases and dementia, and a higher rate of morbidity
and disability, due to their declining physical functions, Liu said.
The elderly made up 75 percent of the 20 million additional populations of people with disabilities in
China from 1987 to 2007, according to the second nationwide survey on people with disabilities.
"An increasing ageing population means growing need for old-age care. But available services fail to
meet that need," Liu said.
The tradition of old-age care provided by children and relatives is no longer sustainable in today's
rapidly developing and urbanizing China, as many elderly live in empty nests, their children often
unavailable for their needs, according to Liu.
Ten percent of those in need receive care at public nursing homes, but the majority cannot afford
expensive services from private agencies, which are running with variable qualities under lax
regulations, Liu said.
Liu Jitong, professor at the Department of Health Policy and Management of Peking University, told
China Daily that creating a social care insurance system is a timely response to the ageing problem
of China.
Liu said installing such a system will not involve much extra public spending, as individuals and
employers will pour in their contribution. And the system will benefit a wide range of people,
including the elderly and other disadvantaged populations.
But with limited budgets, policy-makers constantly face the thorny problem of addressing different
disadvantaged groups' needs, according to Ding Yuanzhu, a professor at the Chinese Academy of
Governance, also a veteran at China's National Development and Reform Commission for over a
decade.
Li Jianfei, professor at the Law School of Renmin University of China, told China Daily that
institutionalized social care for the elderly is an imminent step for China to take.
"Whether such a system is doable or not, this is the right question to consider for China now," Li
stressed, "How much it will cost, that is the next question to ask."
Women, living on average five to six years longer than their husbands, face a more difficult situation
in old age, Li said.