The Science of Kanban
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The Science of Kanban
- 1. The Science of Kanban
- 2. kscotland@rallydev.com http://availagility.co.uk twitter.com/kjscotland KARL SCOTLAND
- 4. Study Learn Share System Sense Limit
- 5. Complex Complicated • Retrospectively Coherent • Potentially Knowable • Cause-Effect not repeatable • Cause-Effect separated in time • Probe → Sense → Respond & space • Sense → Analyse → Respond Unordered Domains Ordered Domains Disorder Chaos Simple • Incoherent • Known • Cause-Effect not perceivable • Cause-Effect • Act → Sense → Respond perceivable, predictable, repeata ble • Sense → Categorise → Respond http://www.cognitive-edge.com/
- 7. People
- 9. Clark & Wheelwright: Managing New Product and Process Development
- 10. 100 80 Percent 60 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 Number of Simultaneous Projects Working Time Context Switching Time Gerald Weinberg, Quality Software Management: Systems Thinking
- 11. Single Loop Learning Strategies & Assumptions Results Techniques Double Loop Learning
- 14. Process
- 15. Queuing Capacity Utilisation Lead Time = Queue Size / Processing Rate Queue Utilisation
- 16. Flow = Speed x Density Density Flow Vehicles Vehicles per per Hour Mile Miles per Hour Speed Miles per Hour
- 17. Difference Temperature Adjustment
- 18. Fast Feedback Faster Smaller Flow Queues Lower WIP
- 20. Economics
- 21. Discounted Cash Life Cycle Profits Time Maximum Cash Injection Needed Investment Period Payback Period Profit Period Self-funding Break-even Point Point
- 22. Cost Standard Expedite Time Cost of Delay Fixed Date Intangible
- 23. Information Information Theory 0% Probability of Failure 100%
- 24. Ideas Learn Build Lean Startup Data Code Measure
- 25. Asymmetric Pay-offs Gain Payoff Performance Loss Target
- 26. Risk Reduction Sequence Early Value of Risk Reduction Sequence Late Cost of Risk Reduction
- 29. Plan Act Do Check
- 30. Observe Act Orient Decide
- 31. The Golden Circle What How Why http://www.startwithwhy.com/
- 33. Economics Lean People Process
- 34. Books • Kanban – David J. Anderson • The Principles of Product Development Flow – Donald G. Reinertsen • Brain Rules – John Medina • Software by Numbers – Mark Denne & Jane Cleland-Huang
- 35. Thank you! Email: kscotland@rallydev.com Twitter: http://twitter.com/kjscotland Blog: http://availagility.co.uk
Editor's Notes
- Kanban, Flow & Cadence – KFC (food) not lean!Agile2008. Blogged Oct 2008More than just the board/mechanicsEvolution - The science of KFChttp://www.flickr.com/photos/marufish/4888007513/
- Elephant in the Room – Scientific Management. Manufacturing.Core ideas of scientific management developed by Federick Taylor in the late 19thC. Now 21stC.POV: We can still apply science to understanding why and how differences in productivity exist.
- Kanban context.Assume some knowledge of kanban, although not a pre-requisite
- General Action: Know where you are. Both capability (A3 current state) and domainHow you apply scientific management will be different.(See http://www.argenta-europ.com/default.asp?pageid=230)
- ImpactIf you know where you are, and how you are doing, you know whether you are improvingAnticipatory, not reactive – evolutionary potential, not future stateContinuous Improvement & Continuous ChangeGeneral Benefit: Sense for Success – Improved Outcomes for Business and People
- Knowledge work - Capability - CraftThe Human ConditionSociology / Neurosciencehttp://www.flickr.com/photos/a_mason/4006709/
- Vision trumps all other senses – wine-tasting vocabulary experiment, BordeauxVisual processing dominates our perception of the world - Hallucination experimentThe more visual the input, the more likely to be rememberedSP: Visualise the Systemhttp://www.flickr.com/photos/mind_scratch/2434031231/
- Clark & Wheelwright (1993) – Managing New Product and Process Development: Text and CasesMultitasking, when it comes to paying attention, is a myth.Multitasking takes 50% longer with 50% more errorsCell Phone get in more wrecks than anyone except /very/ drunk driversSP: Limit WIP
- We are natural learners. Evolved as the superior species.Double Loop Learning – Chris Argyris - Mental Models/MindsetsAction Science - how human beings design their actions in difficult situationsSP: Kanban & Visibility creates difficult situations
- Formal Science (e.g. Mathematics)Kanban -> Economy of Flow1000 coin tossesMacro: predictable (with some variance)Micro: unpredictable (50/50)Stock Photo
- Queuing TheoryCapacity utilisation increases queues exponentiallyAssumes M/M/1/∞ (Markov arrival, Markov process, 1 server, ∞ queue)Little’s Law: Lead Time = Queue Size / Processing RateTo reduce Lead Time, reduce queues. To reduce queues, reduce utilisation.
- Traffic FlowFlow = Speed x DensityVehicles/Hour = Miles/Hour x Vehicles/MileOriginally observed by Bruce Greenshaw in 1934Left side -> Reinforcing Loop: Density+, Speed-, Flow-, Density+Right side -> Balancing Loop: Density+, Speed-, Flow+, Density-
- FeedbackShower Balancing Loop with Delay
- Economic = social scienceValue. Types of value.Its better to do the right thing wrong, than the wrong thing right. (customer satisfaction)http://www.flickr.com/photos/42931449@N07/5300558006/
- Life Cycle ProfitSoftware by NumbersBeyond Budgeting
- Cost of Delay:
- Information Theory50% failure is optimal for 50/50 results
- Lean Startup – buying information
- Buying InformationSet Based Concurrent EngineeringBuying Insurance
- Scientific ManagementThe workers are the scientists
- PDCA or Check-Plan-Do or LAMBDAA3sExperiments only fail when they don’t complete
- This talk uses Simon Sinek’s Golden Circle to discuss Agile TransformationsImpact
- Axes of ImprovementOutcomes over Outputs. Science suggests levers
- LeanEconomics – customer value, not reducing costProcess – eliminating delays & creating flow, not eliminating wastePeople – Those who use the tools, not the tools themselves