Hasan Ikhrata;Executive Director, Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG)

1. SB 375
Conceptual Land Use Scenario
Leonard Transportation Center Forum
Hasan Ikhrata
Executive Director

2. CA Climate Change Legislation
The Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006: Assembly Bill 32

3. Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Emissions byare the largest single source of greenhouse
Passenger vehicles Sector
gas emissions in California

4. California AB 32 Greenhouse Gas
Reduction Estimates by Measure

5. Where We Are Headed
• Our existing policies need to be adjusted in order to meet
the target and reduce GHGs
• Small changes have big impacts
CO2
Emissions

6. How Senate Bill 375 Addresses
GHG Reductions
• Requires regional Sustainable
Communities Strategy (SCS)
1
• Includes these three related
approaches
– Land use planning
– Transportation policies
– Transportation
investments
3
2

7. COMPACT Land Use Planning:
DEVELOPMENT What New Strategies
Might Work?
• Focus growth around
transit areas
• Integrate housing and jobs
closer to one another
• Increase the diversity of housing
choices region wide
• Reinvestment in existing
communities
PEOPLE DRIVE • Ensure local capacity for mixed
20-40% LESS use centers of activity
SOURCE: GROWING COOLER: EVIDENCE ON URBAN DEVELOPMENT
AND CLIMATE CHANGE, URBAN LAND INSTITUTE, REID EWING, ET
AL. 2008

8. Anticipating the Target
• Statewide reduction
5 million metric tons through
land use and transportation
planning by 2020
• Estimated SCAG portion
2.5 million metric tons

9. Reaching the Target
How far can land use planning take
us as a region toward meeting
the target?
• How can the region absorb
expected growth?
• Need to research and test
different land use and transportation
planning strategies
• Want to partner and collaborate with
local governments, subregions, and
county transportation commissions in
the development of the SCS

10. Developing the Conceptual Land Use Scenario
Research and Analysis
• Research effort to test ideas, not a proposed SCS
• Started with the adopted growth forecast from the 2008 RTP
• Integrated 2008 RTP input and introduced new land use planning
strategies
• Evaluated scenarios with a transportation and land use model, then
compared results against the 2008 Adopted RTP Forecast
• Considered the strengths and weaknesses

11. 2008 RTP Adopted Growth Forecast
• Developed by the region for the region
• Used to compare alternative land use strategies
to reduce the regional GHG reduction target
-2.5

12. 2008 RTP Adopted Growth Forecast
Strengths and Weaknesses
• Followed local input
• Reflected many local initiatives
• Transportation modeling resulted in the production of 94
million tons of CO2 emissions by 2020
• Jobs/housing imbalance which leads to longer trips
• Many separated land uses
• Does not meet 2020 target

13. Envision Scenario
• Part of 2008 RTP research
• Focused on regional jobs-housing balance
• Did not follow county or city forecasts
-2.3
-2.5

14. Envision Scenario
Strengths and Weaknesses
• Built upon current progressive planning efforts
• Improved access to jobs across the region
• Significantly reduced carbon emissions
• Achieved a 2.3 million metric ton reduction
• Did not follow local plans in some areas –
especially stable residential areas
• Some parts of scenario probably not feasible
• Not fully vetted during RTP

15. Conceptual Land Use Scenario
Methodology
• Considered the lessons learned from the 2008 RTP Adopted
Growth Forecast and Envision Scenario
• Maintained county level forecasts
• Maintained city level growth forecasts within 10%
• Focused growth around regional and local transit networks

16. Started with the regional 2020
transportation network

17. Focused growth in high
intensity areas based
on 2006 General Plan
designations as well as
some vacant lower
density areas

18. Avoided areas of stability:
open space and established
residential areas

19. Initially, focused growth
around regional rail and
rapid bus transit (BRT) and
existing urban centers

20. Established top priority
growth areas:
rail and BRT transit areas
with both land capacity
and planned capacity
(high intensity General
Plan designations)

21. We expanded the top
priority areas
significantly by including
local bus transit

22. Adding local transit quadrupled the top priority areas from
z
123,000 acres to 534,000 acres and reduced densities

23. Conceptual Land Use Scenario
• Maintains city and county forecasts for housing and jobs
• Focuses growth around transit corridors and stations
• Focuses new development in areas with planned capacity
-1.5
-2.3
-2.5

24. Conceptual Land Use Scenario
Strengths and Weaknesses
• Results in a reduction of 1.5 million tons of CO2
• The modeling and research tells us that it is possible to significantly
reduce GHG through land use strategies
• Improved jobs to housing balance and distributed growth
• Requires some new transportation investments
• Requires additional TDM strategies
• Modeling should take advantage of additional pedestrian and
transit trips
• Requires local and regional policy changes
• Did not meet the 2.5 MMT target – 60% of the way

25. SCAG Region
2008 RTP Adopted Forecast
I-15
I-5
Ventura
Ontario
Brea
I-10
Long Beach
Hemet
El Centro

26. SCAG Region
Conceptual Land Use Scenario
I-15
I-5
Ventura
Ontario
Brea
I-10
Long Beach
Hemet
El Centro

27. Los Angeles County
2008 RTP Adopted Forecast
I-5
Burbank
I-405
Los Angeles I-10
Santa Monica
Brea
Compton
Long Beach

28. Los Angeles County
Conceptual Land Use Scenario
I-5
Burbank
I-405
Los Angeles I-10
Santa Monica
Brea
Compton
Long Beach

29. Riverside County
2008 RTP Adopted Forecast
I-15
Victorville
San Bernardino
Corona I-10
Hemet
Indio
Temecula

30. Riverside County
Conceptual Land Use Scenario
I-15
Victorville
San Bernardino
Corona I-10
Hemet
Indio
Temecula

31. Riverside County – Hemet
2008 RTP Adopted Forecast
State Highway 79
Hemet
State Highway 74

32. Riverside County – Hemet
Conceptual Land Use Scenario
State Highway 79
Hemet
State Highway 74

33. Compass Blueprint Demonstration Project
Hemet

34. San Bernardino County
2008 Adopted RTP Forecast
Barstow
Victorville
I-15
San Bernardino Twentynine
Palms
Ontario
I-10
I-215

35. San Bernardino County
Conceptual Land Use Scenario
Barstow
Victorville
I-15
San Bernardino Twentynine
Palms
Ontario
I-10
I-215

36. San Bernardino County – Ontario
2008 Adopted RTP Forecast
NORTH
San Bernardino Fwy
Ontario
Ontario Fwy

37. San Bernardino County – Ontario
Conceptual Land Use Scenario
NORTH
San Bernardino Fwy
Ontario
Ontario Fwy

38. Compass Blueprint Demonstration Project
Ontario

39. Conceptual Land
Use Scenario
Regional Transportation Indicators
GHG
REDUCTION 1.5 MMT
VMT
REDUCTION
2.4%
AVG TRIP LENGTH
DECREASE 3.7%
DAILY TRANSIT
BOARDING INCREASE 2.6%

40. Conceptual Land Use Scenario Performance
Different Control Assumptions
-0.9 -0.8
-1.5
-2.3
-2.5

41. Lessons Learned
• A balance of nearby jobs and
housing is important
PEDESTRIAN-ORIENTED
STREETSCAPE • Growth around ALL transit is
important
• Mixed use centers and
corridors and all kinds of
transit are important
• Walkable design is crucial
MIXED USE
DEVELOPMENT

42. This Conceptual Land Use
Scenario is Not a Proposal
• Pursued this as a research project
• Everything will be available online
• Data and maps are available to
subregions

43. SB 375 Timeline

44. Next Steps
• Work sessions
• Sharing data and resources
• Review by county and city
• Communication and outreach
• Public workshops