Peter Greenwald; SCAQMD

2. Agenda No. xx
Clean Air
Clean Energy
Cl E
Clean Transportation
Making the Connections
Peter Greenwald ld
Sr. Policy Advisor
South Coast Air Quality Management District
May 2010
Cleaning the Air That We Breathe…

3. Presentation
• The Big Picture . . . Where we’ve
been and where we need to go
been and where we need to go
• Is getting there really possible?
g g yp
• Making it happen: SCAQMD’s role
and strategies
and strategies
2

4. • The Big Picture: Where we’ve
been and where we need to go
been and where we need to go
3

5. South Coast Air asin
South Coast Air Basin
Key Air Pollutants
Key Air Pollutants
• Ozone (“Smog”)
– Forms from emissions of nitrogen
oxides and hydrocarbons
oxides and hydrocarbons
– Federal attainment deadline: 2023
• Fine Particulates (PM2 5)
( 2.5
– Forms from emissions of particulates, nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides
– Federal attainment deadlines: 2014 (annual avg), 2019 (24 hr avg)
• Air Toxics
– Most significant: Diesel particulates (carcinogenic)
– No ambient standards or attainment deadlines
No ambient standards or attainment deadlines
4

6. Annual Days Exceeding Ozone Standards
250
200
150
100
50
0
1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006
Former 1-Hour Federal Ozone Standard
1997 8-Hour Federal Ozone Standard (0.08 ppm)
2008 8-Hour Federal Ozone Standard (0.075 ppm)
5

7. Health Consequences
Health Consequences
Annual Impacts in South Coast Basin
Based on 2004 – 2006 Monitored Pollutant Concentrations
Based on 2004 –
• >6,500 premature deaths
• 4,100 hospital admissions
• 100,000 asthma cases & other respiratory symptoms
• 8,400 cases acute bronchitis
• 660,000 lost workdays
• 5,200,000 restricted activity days
Source: CARB. Based on 2004 – 2006 Monitored Concentrations 6

8. Modeled Cancer Risk
2005
7

9. History: Air Quality Progress With
History: Air Quality Progress With Growth
History: Air Quality Progress With Growth
Key Reason: Technology
Key Reason: Technology
Demographic Projections and – AQMD policy
Ozone Air Quality Trend g
generally growth
yg
180% 300
accommodating
pulation and
O3 8-Hour
160%
140%
Design Value
250
– Sources generally
ppb)
controlled over 90%
controlled over 90%
Perce Increase in Pop
120% 200
Design Value (p
Activities
100%
150
80%
– Technical challenges
60% 100
increasing
ent
40%
50
20%
0% 0 – Increasing marginal
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
YEAR
2005 2010 2015 2020
control costs . . .
population VMT Housing Unit O3 Design Value
diminishing
marginal returns
marginal returns
8

10. Baseline NOx Emissions and
Baseline NOx Emissions and
Federal 1997 Ozone Standard Carrying Capacity
Federal 1997 Ozone Standard Carrying Capacity
Data from 2007 AQMP
I l di b fit f l d t d t 2007
Including benefits of rules adopted to 2007
1000
900
800
700
ay
Tons per da
600
500
Black Box
400
231
300
200
Carrying
100 Capacity
0 115
2005 2014 2023
9

11. 2030 Ozone: Source Contributions
Background + Ships + Aircraft + Locomotives = 72 ppb
(With majority Tier 4 Locomotives; Approx 75% Tier 3 Ships)
130
120 Current SCAQMD
Ambient Ozone:
110 120 ppb
100
90
Current Fed Ozone
80
Ozone
Standard: 75 ppb
70
ppb O
Proposed Fed Ozone
60
Standard: 60 ‐70 ppb
Oceangoing Ships, Aircraft, Locomotives (24)
50
40
30
20
10
Natural Background (48)
g ( )
0
10

12. Needed:
75 – 90 percent additional NOx reduction
75 – 90 percent additional
Timeframe: 2023 ‐ 2030
Timeframe: 2023 ‐
Requires broad
deployment of zero‐emission
deployment of zero‐
technologies, e.g. electric
“Combustion Out”
11

13. • Is getting there possible?
12

14. Top 15 AQMP NOx Categories in 2023
T h l i lP
Technological Potential for Electrification / Zero‐E
i l f El ifi i / Z
Technological Potential for Electrification / Zero‐E
*
Oceangoing Vessels
Oceangoing Vessels
Off‐Road Equipment
Heavy‐Duty Diesel Trucks
Aircraft
(
RECLAIM (Large Stationary) )
Light‐Duty Trucks
Locomotives
Recreational Boats
Light‐Duty Cars High Potential
Heavy‐Duty Gasoline Trucks Some Potential
Residential Fuel Combustion Low Potential
Commercial Boats
Commercial Boats
Medium‐Duty Trucks
Heavy‐Duty Buses
Service/Commercial
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
tons per day
* Preliminary emissions estimates; based on IMO Tier 1 – 3 for ocean vessels; EPA 2008 rule for locomotives; 2007 AQMP short‐term measures for other.
Range for oceangoing vessels based on varying deployment assumptions for IMO Tier 3 vessels.

15. • Electric / Zero‐Emission
– On‐Road (with hybrid transition)
( y )
Key Sources: – Rail
A – Ships at Berth
– Residential
Technology
h l • Substantial Hybrid‐Electric
– Off‐Road
Path – Harbor Craft
• Electric / Zero‐Emission Where Possible
– Industrial/Commercial
• 80% NOx Control
– Ocean Vessel Main Engines
• Substantial Renewable Energy
14

16. Is such a path
p
possible in the real world
possible in the real world
What s already been achieved . . .
What’s already been achieved
15

17. Combustion Out 100 Years Ago: g
Electric Local Rail Transit
Los Angeles Pacific Electric Railway Depot, circa 1910
16

18. Combustion Out 1944:
Electric Regional Rail Transit
Four Counties
Four Counties 1,150 Track Miles 900 Cars 109 Million Passengers
1 150 Track Miles 900 Cars 109 Million Passengers
17

19. Combustion Out 1948:
Electric Transit Buses
Los Angeles Transit Lines ‐ The Trolley Bus;
One of the final 30 delivered to Los Angeles in 1948
18

20. Combustion In
Combustion In
19

21. Combustion Out Today:
Combustion Out Today:
Light Rail
20

22. Combustion Out Today:
y
Cars and Light/Medium‐Duty Trucks
Cars and Light/Medium‐
21

23. Combustion Out Today:
Heavy‐
Heavy‐Duty Trucks
22

24. Combustion Out Today:
y
Residential
23

25. Combustion Out Today:
Combustion Out Today:
Ships at Berth
24

26. Combustion Out Today:
y
Cargo Handling Equipment
http://www.bnsf.com/employees/communications/bnsf_today/2007/06/2007‐06‐28‐e.html 25

27. Combustion Out Today:
Freight Rail
Worldwide . . . but not in United States
Worldwide . . . but not in United States
26

28. Combustion Out Today:
Combustion Out Today:
Electricity Generation
80 kW Solar Expansion; Stationary Fuel Cells; 2 x 250 kW in Fontana; 3 x 5 kW in Irvine
27

29. Combustion Sources Today:
y
Oceangoing Vessels
March 2010: IMO requires lower sulfur fuel, and 80%
NOx control for new vessels used in U.S. waters
beginning 2016
28

30. • Making it happen, SCAQMD’s
roles and strategies
and strategies
29

31. Reassessing
Reassessing
Roles & Strategies
• Authority spread among many entities
• Need emphasis on —
Need emphasis on —
– planning & analysis
– commenting advocacy public information
commenting, advocacy, public information,
– funding
– collaborative solutions
30

32. Region’s Leadership Opportunity
R i ’ L d hi O i
What the nation will need in 2050,
South Coast will need in 2023 –
South Coast will need in 2023 – 2030
31

33. General Policies for the Future
32

34. Eliminate the Black Box
• Served purpose, but as
attainment deadlines approach,
– could hinder planning & tech development
• e.g. long lead‐time infrastructure
– creates business uncertainty
b
• Specify at least generally what region needs
in long‐term, and from what sources
g ,
– air plan can include options
33

35. Leapfrog Technologies
• Wherever possible, consistent
with need to maintain interim
progress,
– seek emissions control technology
needed for long‐term
d df l t
– seek consensus for long‐term control by providing
finality & certainty
finality & certainty
34

36. Use “Convergence” to Build Consensus
U “C ” t B ild C
• Convergence: Zero emission technology can
Convergence: Zero‐emission technology can
be part of solution to multiple needs:
– energy security
– efficiency
– climate
– mobility
– jobs
35

37. Use “Convergence” to Build Consensus, cont d
Use Convergence to Build Consensus cont’d
• Seek design of fed, state, local actions to provide
g , , p
air quality co‐benefits
– E.g. energy, transportation, regulatory
– More bang for buck; broader support
– Reduce overlapping regulatory burdens
• Develop local air strategies that also serve
Develop local air strategies that also serve
national priorities
– E.g. energy security
• Seek federal funding & support
– Lead in coordinated solutions
36

38. Strategies: Specific Examples
37

39. Define a Freight Transport System that
Define a Freight Transport System that
Meets Region’s Long‐Term Needs
Meets Region’s Long‐
• Work with transportation
agencies and stakeholders
• Seek federal funding for
consensus system
38

40. Example:
Chicago
Chi
39

41. Define a Freight Transport System that
Define a Freight Transport System that
Meets Region’s Long‐Term Needs, cont’d
Meets Region’s Long‐
• Potential elements:
– Zero‐emission port container
p
transport & cargo handling
(in the works now)
– Electrified truck lanes on key
Electrified truck lanes on key
corridors
(in the works now)
– Rail electrification
40

42. Example:
I‐710 D di t d Z ‐E i i Truck Lanes?
Dedicated Zero‐
Dedicated Zero Emission T k L ?
• Key corridor
Key corridor
• Benefits
– safety
– congestion
– railyard risk
– p
public support
pp
despite cargo
growth
• Possible tech
– overhead catenary
– electromagnetic
– battery
b tt
41

43. Achieving Consensus
Achieving Consensus
on Freight Transport
– Global
competitiveness
+
– Local
Local
quality of life
– A world class
transport system
42

44. Light Duty Vehicles
Li ht‐D t V hi l
Light‐
• CARB authority
• AQMD
– Support infrastructure for electricity
and hydrogen (e.g. charging)
– Support development and transfer
of technologies, e.g.
– batteries
– alternative fuel hybrids
43

45. Rail Electrification
R il El t ifi ti
• Alameda Corridor:
designed to
accommodate
accommodate
electrification
• Dual‐mode
locomotives,
New York City
• Funding opportunities
F di t iti
in energy/climate,
transportation bills?
http://www.acta.org/newsroom/photo_gallery.asp 44

46. Oceangoing Vessels
Oceangoing Vessels
• Problem: Nothing requires Tier 3 NOx vessels to
Problem: Nothing requires Tier 3 NOx vessels to
be built or routed to U.S. waters
– Controlling this enormous NOx source is left to
vagaries of global commercial decisions
i f l b l i ld i i
• AQMD Proposals:
– Requirements or
incentive/disincentive
programs to spur
g
routing of clean vessels
– Preferably nationwide
45

47. Foster Renewable Energy
Foster Renewable Energy
• Incentives, planning, etc . . .
Incentives planning etc
Find the renewable power!
46

48. Technology Advancement
T h l Ad t
• Two key non‐road needs:
– Aircraft
• Federal/international authority
• Opportunity: build on climate &
fuel efficiency measures
fuel efficiency measures
– Vessel main engine PM
• Largest source of port cancer risk
g p
• EPA authority
47

49. Conclusion:
Key Action Items
• Transportation: infrastructure planning,
funding, projects
funding projects
• Legislation: transportation, energy &
climate, etc
li
• Regulatory: SIP, emissions standards, etc
• Technology: funding advancement,
deployment

50. Thank You!
Thank You!
Thank You!
49