Evidence-based Entrepreneurship by Steve Blank Steve Blank @sgblank Stanford / Berkeley / Columbia The Lean Startup Conference 2013 http://leanstartup.co/

1. Moneyball
Evidence-Based Entrepreneurship
&
Investment Readiness Levels
Steve Blank
@sgblank
www.steveblank.com

2. Lean Startup

3. Business Model
Canvas
Lean Startup

4. Business Model
Canvas
+
Customer
Development
Lean Startup

5. Business Model
Canvas
+
Customer
Development
Lean Startup
+
Agile Engineering

6. Business Model
Canvas
+
Customer
Development
Lean Startup
+
Agile Engineering

7. Business Model
Canvas
+
Customer
Development
Lean Startup
+
Agile Engineering

8. Evidence-based Curriculum (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)
Business Model
Canvas
+
Customer
Development
Lean Startup
+
Agile Engineering

9. Hypotheses
Evidence-based Curriculum (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)
Business Model
Canvas
+
Customer
Development
Lean Startup
+
Agile Engineering

10. Hypotheses
Experiments
Evidence-based Curriculum (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)
Business Model
Canvas
+
Customer
Development
Lean Startup
+
Agile Engineering

11. Hypotheses
Experiments
Data
Evidence-based Curriculum (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)
Business Model
Canvas
+
Customer
Development
Lean Startup
+
Agile Engineering

12. Mentors
Hypotheses
Experiments
Data
Evidence-based Curriculum (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)
Business Model
Canvas
+
Customer
Development
Lean Startup
+
Agile Engineering

13. 2,200 Teams Worldwide
• NSF Innovation-Corps
• 44 Universities Worldwide
• 30 Accelerators/Incubators
• Fortune 500 Companies

14. Training 300 Educators/Year
• Lean LaunchPad Educators Seminar
• Lean LaunchPad Incubator/Accelerator Seminar
http://nciia.org/LLP

15. LaunchPad Central Software
Hypotheses
Experiments
Data
Evidence-based Curriculum (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)
Business Model
Canvas
+
Customer
Development
Lean Startup
+
Agile Engineering

16. Weekly Data
Progress
Data
Data
LaunchPad Central Software
Hypotheses
Experiments
Data
Evidence-based Curriculum (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)
Business Model
Canvas
+
Customer
Development
Lean Startup
+
Agile Engineering

17. Weekly Data
Progress
Data
Data
+
Experiment
Scorecard
LaunchPad Central Software
Hypotheses
Experiments
Data
Evidence-based Curriculum (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)
Business Model
Canvas
+
Customer
Development
Lean Startup
+
Agile Engineering

18. Weekly Data
Progress
Data
Data
+
Experiment
Scorecard
=
Data, Experiments,
Trajectory, IRL
LaunchPad Central Software
Hypotheses
Experiments
Data
Evidence-based Curriculum (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)
Business Model
Canvas
+
Customer
Development
Lean Startup
+
Agile Engineering

19. Data on Hypotheses, Pivots,
MVPs, Metrics
Evidence and Trajectory

21. Cohort
Leaderboard

22. Customer
Interviews

23. Hypotheses
to Test

24. Invalidated
Hypotheses

26. Weekly Canvas
Updates

28. Track All
Hypotheses
Testing

30. Scorecard:
9 way Kanban Board
with data

31. Advanced Data Mining

32. NASA

33. NASA/DOD
Technology Readiness Level (TRL)
•
•
•
•
Formal Way to assess project maturity
Quantify Relative Risks
Data Driven
Adopted by NASA, DOD, FAA, ESA…

34. NASA/DOD Technology Readiness:
Levels 1 & 2
Basic Technology Research
• Basic principles observed
• Technology concept formulated
Concept

35. NASA/DOD Technology Readiness
Levels 3 & 4
Research to prove Feasibility
• Experimental proof of concept
• Breadboard validation in lab
Research
Concept

36. NASA/DOD Technology Readiness
Levels 5 & 6
Demo Prototype
• Breadboard validation outside the building
• System demo in real-world
Demo
Research
Concept

37. NASA/DOD Technology Readiness
Levels 7, 8, 9
Deployment
• System Development
• System deployed in real-world
Demo
Research
Concept

38. What Can We Do
With All This Data?
The Investment Readiness Level

39. Investment Readiness Level

40. Investment Readiness Level
We can do the same
for new ventures

41. Investment Readiness Level
We can do the same
for new ventures
Emphasis is on data

42. Investment Readiness Level
• A Formal Way to Quantify Relative Risks
• Data Driven
• Analog to NASA/DOD
Technology Readiness Level (TRL)

43. Investment Readiness:
Levels 1 & 2
Hypotheses
• Value Proposition summarized
• Canvas hypotheses articulated
Hypotheses

44. Investment Readiness:
Levels 3 & 4
Problem / Solution Fit
• Problem Solution fit
• Low fidelity MVP
Problem/Solution
Hypotheses

45. Investment Readiness:
Levels 5 & 6
Validate
• Product/Market fit
• Right side of canvas
Product/Market fit
Problem/Solution
Hypotheses

46. Investment Readiness:
Levels 7 & 8
Validate
• Left side of canvas
Product/Market fit
Problem/Solution
Hypotheses

47. Investment Readiness:
Levels 9
Metrics That Matter
Left side of the canvas
Product/Market fit
Problem/Solution
Hypotheses

48. Technology
Readiness Level
Investment
Readiness Level
Metrics that Matter
Validate
Left side of Canvas
Validate
Right side of Canvas
Product/Market Fit
Problem/Solution
Hypotheses

49. IRL Deployed …

51. “God is not on the side of the big arsenals,
but on the side of those who shoot best.”
Voltaire

52. For more info Incubator/Accelerator Class
http://nciia.org/LLP
www.steveblank.com
@sgblank

53. Lesson Learned Presentations Tonight
UCSF Mission Bay
Byers Auditorium
5:30 – 7:30pm
www.steveblank.com
@sgblank