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1. There is no guarantee that the strategies set forth in this presentation will achieve
their intended objectives LWI Financial Inc. (โLoring Wardโ) is an investment adviser
registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Securities transactions
may be offered through Loring Ward Securities Inc., member FINRA/SIPC
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8. 8
Helping &
Protecting Family
Enjoying &
Protecting Lifestyle
Planning
Ahead
Creating Financial
Comfort
Building a
Legacy
Helping Children Income Needs Clarifying Vision Managing Resources
Wills and Power
of Attorney
Assisting Parents Leisure Planning Health Challenges Generating Income Estate Transfer
Funding Education Personal Health Managing Change Minimizing Taxes Charitable Giving
Retirement Transition
Planning
Protecting Assets
and Business
Life Transition
Planning
Working with an
Advisory Team
Living Legacy
15. 15
1
Risks associated with investing in stocks potentially include increased volatility (up and down movement in the value of your assets) and loss of principal. Indexes are unmanaged
baskets of securities that investors cannot directly invest in. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Hypothetical value of $1 invested at the beginning of 1927 and kept
invested through December 31, 2012. Assumes reinvestment of income and no transaction costs or taxes. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An
investment cannot be made directly in an index. Total returns in U.S. dollars. Long Term Government Bonds, One-Month US Treasury Bills, and US Consumer Price Index (inflation),
source: Morningstarโs 2013 Stocks, Bonds, Bills, And Inflation Yearbook (2013); Fama/French Total U.S. Market Index provided by Fama/French from Center for Research in Security
Prices (CRSP) data. Includes all NYSE securities (plus Amex equivalents since July 1962 and NASDAQ equivalents since 1973), including utilities.
Growth of $1 Jan. 1, 1927 โ Dec. 31, 2012
How You Allocate Between Stocks & Short-Term Bonds
16. 16
How You Allocate Between Stocks & Short-Term Bonds1
Source: One-Month US Treasury Bills, Five-Year US Treasury Notes, and Twenty-Year (Long-Term) US Government Bonds provided by Ibbotson Associates. Six-Month US Treasury Bills
provided by CRSP (1964-1977) and Merrill Lynch (1978-present). One-Year US Treasury Notes provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices (1964-May 1991) and Merrill Lynch (June
1991-present). Morningstar data ยฉ 2013 Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook (2013), Morningstar. The Merrill Lynch Indices are used with permission; copyright 2013 Merrill Lynch,
Pierce, Fenner& Smith Incorporated; all rights reserved. Assumes reinvestment of dividends. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk. Standard deviation
annualized from quarterly data. Standard deviation is a statistical measurement of how far the return of a security (or index) moves above or below its average value. The greater the standard
deviation, the riskier an investment is considered to be.
Risk and Rewards
Examined for Bonds
1964โ2012
17. 17
2 How You Allocate Between U.S. & International Stocks
18. 18
World Market Capitalization
$37.5 Trillion as of December 31, 2012
Source: Dimensional Fund Advisors. In US dollars. Market cap data is free-float adjusted from Bloomberg securities data. Many small nations not displayed.
Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding. Past Performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk. Foreign securities involve
additional risks including foreign currency changes, taxes and different accounting and financial reporting methods.
Capitalization over time
($ trillions)๏ฎ Developed Markets
๏ฎ Emerging Markets
๏ฎFrontier Markets
Bloomberg Index Affiliation
How You Allocate Between U.S. & International Stocks2
19. 19
Past Performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk. Foreign securities involve additional risks including foreign currency changes,
taxes and different accounting and financial reporting methods.
How You Allocate Between U.S. & International Stocks
Source: Morningstar Direct 2013. Countries represented by their respective MSCI IMI (net div.). Indexes are unmanaged baskets of securities in which investors cannot directly invest; they do not
reflect the payment of advisory fees or other expenses associated with specific investments or the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. All
investments involve risk, including loss of principal. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign currency changes, political risks, foreign taxes, and different methods of accounting
and financial reporting.
Ranking of Markets Around the World
Ten-Year Performance in US Dollars
Annualized Returns Year Ending December 31, 2012
2
21. 21
3
The risks associated with investing in stocks and overweighting small company and value stocks potentially include increased volatility (up and down
movement in the value of your assets) and loss of principal.
Your Comfort with Key Risk Factors
Small
Company
Stocks
Growth
Company
Stocks
Value
Company
Stocks
Large
Company
Stocks
Total Stock
Market
Increased
Expected
Returns
Decreased
Risk and
Expected
Returns
22. 22
Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of
future results. US value and growth index data (ex utilities) provided by Fama/French. The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poorโs Index Services Group. CRSP data provided by the
Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. International Value and Growth data provided by Fama/French from Bloomberg and MSCI securities data. International Small
data compiled by Dimensional from Bloomberg, StyleResearch, London Business School, and Nomura Securities data. MSCI EAFE Index is net of foreign withholding taxes on dividends;
copyright MSCI 2013, all rights reserved. Emerging markets index data simulated by Fama/French from countries in the IFC Investable Universe; simulations are free-float weighted both
within each country and across all countries.
Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money. Small company risk: Securities of small firms are often less
liquid than those of large companies. As a result, small company stocks may fluctuate relatively more in price. Emerging markets risk: Numerous emerging countries have experienced
serious, and potentially continuing, economic and political problems. Stock markets in many emerging countries are relatively small, expensive, and risky. Foreigners are often limited in their
ability to invest in, and withdraw assets from, these markets. Additional restrictions may be imposed under other conditions. Foreign securities and currencies risk: Foreign securities prices
may decline or fluctuate because of: (a) economic or political actions of foreign governments, and/or (b) less regulated or liquid securities markets. Investors holding these securities are also
exposed to foreign currency risk (the possibility that foreign currency will fluctuate in value against the US dollar).
Your Comfort with Key Risk Factors3
23. 23
The Key Academic Research
โข Defining Value and Growth: Implications for Returns and Turnover
Jim Davis and Inmoo Lee, Dimensional Fund Advisors (August 2008)
โข The Anatomy of Value and Growth Stocks
Fama, Eugene F., University of Chicago โ Graduate School of Business and Kenneth R. French,
Dartmouth College โ Tuck School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research
(September 2007)
โข Migration
Fama, Eugene and Kenneth R. French, Financial Analysts Journal (June 2007)
Dissecting Anomalies
Fama, Eugene F., University of Chicago โ Graduate School of Business and Kenneth R. French,
Dartmouth College โ Tuck School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (June
2007)
โข Average Returns, B/M, and Share Issues
Fama, Eugene F., University of Chicago โ Graduate School of Business and Kenneth R. French,
Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business; (May 2007)
International Evidence of the Size Effect
Rizova, Savina, Dimensional Fund Advisors (August 2006)
โข Multi-Factor Investing
Fama Jr., Eugene F., Dimensional Fund Advisors (July 2006)
โข The Value Premium and the CAPM
Fama, Eugene F., University of Chicago โ Graduate School of Business and Kenneth R. French,
Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (March
2005)
24. 24
โข The Capital Asset Pricing Model: Theory and Evidence
Fama, Eugene F., University of Chicago โ Graduate School of Business and Kenneth R. French,
Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (August
2003)
โข The Corporate Cost of Capital and the Return on Corporate Investment
Fama, Eugene F., University of Chicago โ Graduate School of Business and Kenneth R. French,
Dartmouth College โ Tuck School of Business; (April 1998)
โข Value Versus Growth: The International Evidence
Fama, Eugene F., University of Chicago โ Graduate School of Business and Kenneth R. French,
Dartmouth College โ Tuck School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (August
1997)
โข Cross Section of Expected Stock ReturnsFama, Eugene and Kenneth R. French, Journal of
Finance 47 (1992)
โข Luck Versus Skill in the Cross Section of Mutual Fund ReturnsFama, Eugene F. and
French, Kenneth R., (December 14, 2009 )
โข Mutual Fund Performance
Fama, Eugene F. and French, Kenneth R.; National Bureau of Economic Research (June 30,
2008)
โข The Cost of Active Investing
French, Kenneth R. (March 13, 2008)
โข False Discoveries in Mutual Fund Performance: Measuring Luck in Estimated Alphas
L. Barras, O. Scaillet, and R. Wermers (July 2006)
The Key Academic Research
25. 25
โข The Informational Efficiency of Stock Prices
Davis, James L., Dimensional Fund Advisors (April 2006)
โข Market Efficiency: A Theoretical Distinction and So What?
Markowitz, Harry M., Financial Analysts Journal (2005)
โข The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics
Malkiel, Burton G. Princeton University, CEPS Working Paper No. 91 (April 2003)
โข Passive Investment Strategies and Efficient Markets
Malkiel, Burton G. Princeton University, Princeton University - Bendheim Center for Finance;
National Bureau of Economic Research (2003)
โข Mutual Fund Performance and Manager Style Davis, James L., Dimensional Fund Advisors
Financial Analysts Journal (January / February 2001 )
โข Market Efficiency, Long-term Returns, and Behavioral Finance
Fama, Eugene F., University of Chicago Graduate School of Business (February 1997)
โข Asset Management: Active vs. Passive Management
Sinquefield, Rex A., Dimensional Fund Advisors (October 1995)
โข The Performance of Mutual Funds in the Period 1945-1964 Jensen, Michael, The Journal of
Finance (May 1968 )
โข Efficient Markets Hypothesis Fama, Eugene F. ,University of Chicago (1965)
โข Behavior of Securities Prices โ 1965
Samuelson, Paul , MIT (1965)
โข The Statistical Properties of Internationally Diversified Portfolios
Davis, James L., Dimensional Fund Advisors (September 2004)
The Key Academic Research
26. 26
โข What Measures the Benefits of Diversification
Statman, Meir, Santa Clara University - Department of Finance and Jonathan Scheid, Loring Ward
Advisor Services (May 2005)
How Much Diversification is Enough
Statman, Meir Santa Clara University - Department of Finance (October 2002)
โข Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic
Risk?
Campbell, John Y., Martin Lettau, Burton G. Malkiel and Yexiao Xu, Harvard University -
Department of Economics , New York University - Department of Finance , Princeton University -
Bendheim Center for Finance and University of Texas at Dallas - Department of Finance &
Managerial Economics (March 2000)
โข The Statistical Properties of Internationally Diversified Portfolios
Davis, James L., Dimensional Fund Advisors (September 2004)
Several recent studies have cast doubt on the diversification benefits of
โข The Capital Asset Pricing Model: Theory and Evidence
Fama, Eugene F., University of Chicago โ Graduate School of Business and Kenneth R. French,
Dartmouth College - Tuck School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (August
2003)
โข What Measures the Benefits of Diversification
Statman, Meir, Santa Clara University - Department of Finance and Jonathan Scheid, Loring Ward
Advisor Services (May 2005)
โข How Much Diversification is Enough
Statman, Meir Santa Clara University - Department of Finance (October 2002)
โข Diversification and Portfolio Risk
Harry Markowitz, University of Chicago (1962)
The Key Academic Research
27.
28. 28 The buying and selling of securities for the purpose of rebalancing may have adverse tax consequences.
29. 29
Rebalancing and a 50% Stocks/50% Bonds Portfolio
1993 โ 2012
Data source: Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP), January 2013. Past performance is no indication of future results. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. Stocks are
represented by the S&P 500 Index. Bonds are represented by the SBBI Long-Term Bond Index. Indexes are unmanaged baskets of securities in which investors cannot invest and do not reflect
the payment of advisory fees associated with a mutual fund or separate account. Returns assume dividend and capital gain reinvestment.
Rebalancing does not guarantee a return or protect against a loss.
31. 31
Average Investor vs. Major Indices
1992 โ 2012
Average stock investor and average bond investor performances were used from a DALBAR study, Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior (QAIB),
03/2013. QAIB calculates investor returns as the change in assets after excluding sales, redemptions, and exchanges. This method of calculation captures
realized and unrealized capital gains, dividends, interest, trading costs, sales charges, fees, expenses, and any other costs. After calculating investor returns
in dollar terms (above), two percentages are calculated: Total investor return rate for the period and annualized investor return rate. Total return rate is
determined by calculating the investor return dollars as a percentage of the net of the sales, redemptions, and exchanges for the period. The fact that buy-
and-hold has been a successful strategy in the past does not guarantee that it will continue to be successful in the future. S&P 500 and Fixed Income index
returns do not include expenses and fees
Equities Behavior Gap = 3.96% Fixed Income Behavior Gap = 5.36%
33. 33
Can Past Performance Predict Future Results?
10-Year Annualized Performance of 862 U.S. Equity Funds vs. S&P 500 1998โ2007
Data source: Center for Research in Security Prices
(CRSP), For illustrative purposes only. Mutual funds
were placed in descending order of 10-year
annualized performance, and subsequent 5-year
performance assumes the same ordering as the 10-
year period. The number of funds for the subsequent
5-year period represent existing funds from the 10-
year period. Eligible universe is share classes of US
Equity Open End mutual funds domiciled in the US
with prospectus benchmark of the S&P 500,
classified into the US Stock mutual fund asset class
by Morningstar Direct with a ten-year annualized
return as of Dec. 31, 2007 in Morningstar Direct.
Mutual fund universe statistical data provided by
Morningstar, Inc.; Indices are not available for direct
investment; therefore, their performance does not
reflect the expenses associated with the
management of an actual portfolio. Past
performance is no guarantee of future results, and
there is always the risk that an investor may lose
money. S&P 500ยฎ is a registered trademark of
Standard & Poorโs Financial Services LLC 2012. All
investments involve risk, including loss of principal.
35. 35
5 Years Later, No Predictable Pattern of Performance
5-Year Annualized Performance of 862 U.S. Equity Funds vs. S&P 500 2008 - 2012
Data source: Center for Research in Security Prices
(CRSP), For illustrative purposes only. Mutual funds
were placed in descending order of 10-year
annualized performance, and subsequent 5-year
performance assumes the same ordering as the 10-
year period. The number of funds for the subsequent
5-year period represent existing funds from the 10-
year period. Eligible universe is share classes of US
Equity Open End mutual funds domiciled in the US
with prospectus benchmark of the S&P 500,
classified into the US Stock mutual fund asset class
by Morningstar Direct with a ten-year annualized
return as of Dec. 31, 2007 in Morningstar Direct.
Mutual fund universe statistical data provided by
Morningstar, Inc.; Indices are not available for direct
investment; therefore, their performance does not
reflect the expenses associated with the
management of an actual portfolio. Past
performance is no guarantee of future results, and
there is always the risk that an investor may lose
money. S&P 500ยฎ is a registered trademark of
Standard & Poorโs Financial Services LLC 2012. All
investments involve risk, including loss of principal.
When it comes to ourfinancial futures, the decisions we make can have an enormous impact in the years ahead.
But there are a lot of challenges facing investors, when you design a plan, including stock market volatility
Wall Street and the financial media are another challenge.They can sometimes turn investing into entertainment
A good plan should be designed around an investorโs financial AND life goalsโand as this chart shows, these goals can cover a wide variety of areas.
Like the story of the three little pigsโyou donโt want a straw portfolio built with whatever investments are โHotโ right now in the financial media.
Nor do you want a โwoodโ portfolio which is just a collection of investments which may not work well together and donโt necessarily reflect your unique goals and needs.
Portfolios should be built with investments that provide proper diversification, work well together and reflect the right balance or risk and potential reward for each investorโs chosen level of risk and time horizon.
And we believe that science and academic research are critical to building a prudent portfolio. Great thinkers and economists such as Adam Smith, Frederich Hayek, Paul Samuelson, Merton Miller, Bill Sharpe, Daniel Kahneman and of course Harry Markowitz have provided us with powerful insights into how portfolios should be constructed.
When it comes to portfolio construction, we believe investors have three key decisions they need to make. Read slide.
From the smartphone in your pocket to the department store where you buy your clothes, many companies that are a big part of our lives are public companies that are listed for trading on a major stock exchange. Not all of them are big with well-known brand names and not all will be successful long-term. However, one of the best opportunities to grow your money over the long-term can come from making an investment in capitalism and the stock market.This chart is a good illustration of the long-term growth of US businesses over the past eighty years.
To be an effective โshock absorber,โ the portfolio should contain:โข Bonds with shorter maturities that have lower correlations historically to stocks. This means the bond typically has a 3 to 5 year โlifespanโ and does not go up and down in value at the same time or to the same extent as stocks. Generally, longer maturity bonds entail more riskโข Higher-quality bonds that can help dampen portfolio volatility and lower the risk of a default.The chart illustrates the risk and reward to portfolios from fixed income holdings. Of note is the lower volatility of short-term bonds that you can see represented by the standard deviation number (how much the portfolio goes up or down in a year). Note also that investors are typically not properly compensated for the additional risk of longer-term bonds.
Now that you understand about not putting all of your eggs in one basket, by investing in both stocks and short-term bonds it just makes sense to apply diversification to the global markets. Today, more than 56% of the total market capitalization is outside of the US markets!
This slide depicts the world not according to land mass, but by the size of each countryโs stock market relative to the worldโs total market .ย Population, gross domestic product, exports, and other economic measures may influence where people invest. But the map offers a different way to view the universe of equity investment opportunities. If markets are efficient, global capital will migrate to destinations that offer the most attractive risk-adjusted expected returns. Therefore, the relative size and growth of markets may help in assessing the political, economic, and financial forces at work in countries.ย The slide brings into sharp relief the investible opportunity of each country relative to the world. It avoids distortions that may be created or implied by attention to economic or fundamental statistics, such as population, consumption, trade balances, or GDP.ย By focusing on an investment metric rather than on economic reports, the chart further reinforces the need for a disciplined, strategic approach to global asset allocation. Of course, the investment world is in motion, and these proportions will change over time as capital flows to markets that offer the most attractive returns. ย
While the US outperformed almost all other countries in 2012, the long term picture still points to a need for international diversification, with the US coming in 39th out of 45 countries in terms of 10-year stock market returns.
This is why we build asset class portfolios that typically contain over 9,000 companies in 45 countries, representing 36 currencies. While we love the great U.S companies, the science suggests that investing in thousands of stocks globally rather than a few can help mitigate the overall risk of the portfolio and may increase your return. The reason is simple: if you own a lot of companies around the world you will eliminate the โcompany specific riskโ that comes when your portfolio is exposed to a reversal that may affect one company or one sector or even one country. Capitalism and creation of wealth is a worldwide phenomena and the countries with the highest โ and lowest returns โ change year by year. International stocks can be riskier than U.S. stocks and are subject to a variety of additional risks, including currency and political risks. That is why investors must carefully decide how they will allocate the equity portion of their portfolio between U.S. and international stocks.
The size and BtM โ or value -- effects appear in both US and international marketsโstrong evidence that the risk factors are systematic across the globe.This chart demonstrates the higher expected returns offered by small cap stocks and value (high-BtM) stocks in the US, non-US developed, and emerging markets. Note that the international and emerging markets data is for a shorter time frame.Small cap stocks are considered riskier than large cap stocks, and value stocks (as defined by a higher book-to-market ratio) are deemed riskier than growth stocks. We believe these higher returns reflect compensation for bearing higher risk.
This is some of the key academic research we draw upon to help us build portfolios
This is some of the key academic research we draw upon to help us build portfolios
This is some of the key academic research we draw upon to help us build portfolios
This is some of the key academic research we draw upon to help us build portfolios
Rebalancing is an important step that many people neglect when they try to manage their own investments. Without rebalancing, portfolios can drift as the markets change. This drifts can add extra risk to your plan that you never intended or expected.
As you can see from this chart, the annually rebalanced portfolio was historically less volatile over the last twenty years. It may not have soared as much during bull markets, but it didnโt decline as much during bear markets. And overall, it offered slightly better performance with less risk than the drifting portfolio.
Your future is too important to play games with and take unnecessary chances. We donโt believe you should gamble by trying to time markets or pick winning managers.
Beating the S&P 500 isnโt easy. Of the 862 U.S. Equity Funds from 1998 โ 2007, only 420, or less than half managed to beat the S&P 500. So you might think, just invest in one of those winning managers, and youโll do fine.
But 5 years on, in 2012, 248 funds (almost 30%) have closed their doors, merging or going out of business.
Andโfive years later--of the original 420 funds that outperformed, 70% failed to sustain their performance or closed their doors.And a few of the underperformers even managed to beat the S&P 500. But there is no predictable pattern to any of this performance up or down. Nothing that we believe offers a sound guide to which manager to invest with for the future.