The document provides an economic outlook and forecast for 2012 from Bill Bayer in January 2012. It discusses two possible scenarios: a continuation of a slow economic recovery ("muddling through") or a major economic crisis. The most likely scenario is continued slow growth, but periodic downturns from the European crisis and US elections. Key forecasts include moderate housing and commercial real estate growth, slow employment increases, energy prices around $100 per barrel of oil, and US GDP growth of 3-4%.