This document provides information and activities for a workshop on using climate science to increase student confidence in scientific data and interpretation. It outlines that 97-98% of climate scientists agree humans are causing warming, while only 50-60% of the US public agrees. Key points about climate science are presented, attributed to the IPCC. The document describes climate modeling and paleoclimate proxy activities to help students understand different ways scientists study past and project future climates.

1. HOW DO WE KNOW WHAT WE KNOW?
USING CLIMATE SCIENCE AS A VEHICLE TO INCREASE
STUDENT CONFIDENCE IN SCIENTIFIC DATA AND
INTERPRETATION
Nathan Hobbs
Becca Hatheway
Lisa Gardiner

2. WHAT PERCENTAGE OF CLIMATE SCIENTISTS AGREE THAT
THE EARTH IS WARMING AND HUMANS ARE THE CAUSE?
Doran 2009

3. WHAT PERCENTAGE OF THE U.S. PUBLIC AGREE THAT THE
EARTH IS WARMING AND HUMANS ARE THE CAUSE?

4. WHAT DO WE KNOW?
 Earth is warming.
 Humans have been the main
cause of warming over the
past 60 years (95-100% prob).
 The amounts of CO2,
methane, and nitrous oxide
are higher than they ’ve been
for 800,000 years.
 If we reduce emissions we can
limit future warming,
however some warming is
inevitable.

5. SAYS WHO?
 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
 1000s of climate scientists from around the world and representatives from
world nations, an effort coordinated by the United Nations.
 IPCC 5 th Assessment Report – The Physical Science Basis
 Released September 2013
 Includes the current state of understanding of climate and climate
change (and how we know what we know about climate).

6. WORKSHOP ACTIVITIES
Ways of knowing about climate
Classroom Activities
Climate models
Model Resolution
Paleoclimate proxies
Oxygen Isotopes
Instrumental record
Matching Data and Meaning

7. ABOUT CLIMATE MODELING
 What is a climate model?
Scenarios of Future Carbon Dioxide Global Emissions and Concentrations
 Global climate models
(GCMs) use mathematical
equations to describe the
behavior of factors of the
Earth system that impact
climate
 Climate scientist
perspective on confidence
in climate models
Nakićenović, N. and R. Swart (eds.), 2000: Appendix VII: Data
tables. In: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios

8. MODEL RESOLUTION

9. MODEL RESOLUTION ACTIVITY
 Step 1: Tape grid paper to top
of container (lower or higher
resolution grids).
 Step 2: Poke skewers through
paper at the intersections.
 Step 3: Tr y to determine the
shape of the legos in the
bottom of the box based on the
height of the skewers. Mark
this shape on blank grid paper.
 Step 4: Compare shapes
between high and low
resolution grids.
 Step 5: After you’re done…
check the bottom of the box to
see the shape of the legos!

10. PALEOCLIMATOLOGY: AN INVESTIGATION
 What is a proxy?
 Resolution vs. Span
 Examples of proxies






Ice cores
Tree rings
Pollen
Speleothems
Coral
Historical documents
 The Water Cycle, Oxygen-18, and Ice Cores

11. INDIRECT CLUES ABOUT PAST CLIMATES ARE
KNOWN AS PALEOCLIMATE PROXIES, OR
PROXY RECORDS
Just as Sherlock Holmes might infer the height, weight
and other telltale features of a suspect from a series of
footprints, paleoclimatologists infer the climatic
conditions of the past from tree rings, ice cores, layers
of ocean sediments, and similar proxy evidence.
(Randy Russell, Spark: UCAR Science Education)

12. TWO FACTORS ARE USED TO DESCRIBE
TYPES OF PALEOCLIMATE PROXY DATA
 Span – how far back in time the record allows us to peer.
 Tree ring records span the most recent few thousands of years.
 Ice core records go back as much as hundreds of thousands of years.
 Fossils can be up to hundreds of millions of years old.
 Resolution – the level of detail of a proxy record.
 Tree ring data can have an annual resolution.
 Ocean sediments, on the other hand, often have resolutions on the
order of a century because sediments are mixed by currents and
burrowing marine life, blending short-term trends.

13. SOME TYPES OF PROXIES
 Speleothems: the chemistry of
limestone deposits provide clues to
past climate
 Tree rings: the thickness of rings is an
indicator of growing season conditions.
 Coral: chemistry of skeletal layers
provides clues to past climate.
 Pollen: the variety of plant species
(identified from pollen), combined with
information about the climate where
those species typically thrive, provides
clues to past climate
And also …

14. ICE CORES
http://michigantoday.umich.edu/2009/11/vostok-graph.jpg

15. VIDEO: ICE CORE SECRETS COULD REVEAL
ANSWERS TO GLOBAL WARMING

16. VIDEO: DEMO OF O-16 AND O-18
PHYSICAL MODEL

17. PC1 VS. TEMPERATURE
GREENLAND 1829-1970
8.000
6.000
4.000
R² = 0.497
PC1
2.000
0.000
-2.000
PC1 values
Linear (PC1 values)
-4.000
-6.000
-8.000
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
Average Temperature ( C)
-4
-2
0
2

18. MATCHING DATA AND MEANING
 On your table
 Graphs of data from the instrumental record of climate and
global change from the IPCC 5 th Assessment Report.
 Statements that are supported by the graphed data
 Statements that are not supported by graphed data
 Match each graph with the statement that it supports.
(Note: This activity is a prototype and we’d like your feedback.)

19. ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
Learn more about climate science at spark.ucar.edu
For workshop resources: spark.ucar.edu/workshops
Becca Hatheway – hatheway@ucar.edu
Lisa Gardiner – lisagard@ucar.edu
Thank you for coming!

20. MORE SPARK WORKSHOPS
 Cooking Up Weather in the Primary Classroom
Friday, 8-9am Room MHB-2A
 Computer Games, Simulations, & Virtual Labs
Saturday, 11-12pm, Room MHB-4B
 Weather Headlines
Saturday, 11-12pm, Room MHB-2B

21. CLIMATE CHANGE: A TEACHING PERSPECTIVE
Jeff Kiehl
Senior Scientist
National Center for Atmospheric
Research
Thursday, 3:30-4:30
Convention Center Room 103/105
Overview of the findings of the
recent Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change and discussion of the basic
science.