1. Population Dynamics
Lokhaze Ali
Visiting Faculty
NICE, SCEE, NUST

2. Population Dynamics 2

3. Population Dynamics 3

4. Septimius Tertullianus, 200 B.C
• One thing is sure - the earth is
now more cultivated and
developed than ever before.
There is more farming with
pure force, swamps are drying
up, and cities are springing up
on unprecedented scale
• We've become a burden to
our planet. Resources are
becoming scare, and soon
nature will no longer be able
to satisfy our needs. The
time will ultimately come
when pest, hunger, floods
and war will diminish the
excessive numbers of our
human species.
Population Dynamics 4

5. Global population evolution
The history of the global population
For thousands of years the world population remained well below 500 million.
Within the last 200 years the population grew at an enormous speed to over 7
billion.
Population Dynamics 5

6. World Population: Time to Add Successive Billions in
World Population, 1800 to 2050
Source: United Nations 1995; United Nations World Population
Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database
Population Dynamics 6

7. What is Population?
Number of people residing in a country
and is measured as a snapshot at a
particular time
The two components of Population Growth
• Natural Increase
• Net overseas migration
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8. Population in major areas,
estimates and medium scenario:
1950-2300
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9. Estimated World-Population
1800-2100
Population Dynamics 9

10. UN DESA continent population
1950 to 2100
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11. Top 10 World Most Populous Countries
% of world
Rank Country / Territory Population Date
population
1 China 1,356,110,000 February 22, 2013 19.2%
2 India 1,210,193,422 March 2011 17%
3 United States 315,550,000 February 22, 2013 4.46%
4 Indonesia 237,641,000 May 2010 3.36%
5 Brazil 197,755,000 February 22, 2013 2.8%
6 Pakistan 182,310,000 February 22, 2013 2.58%
7 Nigeria 170,123,740 July 2012 2.41%
8 Bangladesh 161,083,804 July 2012 2.28%
9 Russia 141,927,297 January 1, 2010 2.008%
10 Japan 127,547,000 June 1, 2012 1.8%
Population Dynamics 11

12. Ranking of 15 Most Populous
Countries from 1970 to 2050
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13. If the World were 100 PEOPLE
• 50 would be female • 83 would be able to read and
50 would be male write; 17 would not
• 26 would be children • 7 would have a college degree
There would be 74 adults, 8 of 22 would own or share a
whom would be 65 and older computer
• 60 Asians • 77 people would have a place to
15 Africans shelter them from the wind and
14 Americans the rain, but 23 would not
11 Europeans • 87 would have access to safe
• 33 Christians drinking water
22 Muslims 13 people would have no clean,
14 Hindus safe water to drink
7 Buddhists
12 people who practice other
religions
12 people who would not be
aligned with a religion
Population Dynamics 13

14. Population Forecasts

15. Population Forecasts
• Population forecasts
depend on the amount and Methods
type of data available • Graphical
• Population forecasts also
depend on the resources • Mathematical or
available i.e. the amount of Logistical
money that you are willing
to spend • Ratio and
• Forecasts are susceptible Correlation
to error if for no other • Component
reason that nobody knows
the future • Population Densities
Population Dynamics 15

17. Arithmetic or Zero Order
dp/dt= Ka
P = P1 + Ka (t - t1)
Ka = (P2-P1)/ (t2-t1)
P = population
t = time
Ka = arithmetic growth
constant
Population Dynamics 17

18. Example # 1
Given: Arithmetic Numerical B.) General equation
Case P = P1 + Ka (t - t1)
t1 = 1990, P1=110,500 P = 110,500 + 770 (t - t1990),
t2 = 2000, P2=118,200 based on 1990
Find: Any population and the
A.) Ka corresponding year may be
used:
B.) General equation
P = 118,200 + 770 (t - t2000),
C.) Population in 2020
based on 2000
C.) Population in 2020
A.) Ka
P2020 =P1990 + Ka (t2020 - t1990)
Ka = (P2-P1)/ (t2-t1)
P2020 = 110,500 + 770 (2020-
= (118200-110500)/(2000-1990) 1990), based on 1990
= 7700/10
P2020 = 110,500 + 23,100
Ka = 770
Population Dynamics = 133,600
P2020 18

19. Geometric or First Order
dp/dt= KgP
lnP = lnP1 + Kg (t - t1)
Kg = (lnP2-lnP1)/(t2-t1)
Kg = ln(P2/P1)/(t2-t1)
P = population
t = time
Kg = geometric growth constant
Note: lim (1+K)1/K = e = 2.718… base of the natural logarithms
K 0
Population Dynamics 19

20. Example # 2
Given: Geometric Numerical B.) General equation
Case lnP = lnP1 + Kg (t - t1)
t1 = 1990, P1=110,500 lnP = ln (110,500) + 0.00700(t-1990)
lnP = 11.61+0.00700(t-1990)
t2 = 2000, P2=118,200 P = e(11.61+.00700(t-1990)
Find:
A.) Kg Any population and the corresponding
year may be used:
B.) General equation C.) Population in 2020
C.) Population in 2020 lnP2020 =lnP1990 + Ka (t2020 - t1990)
A.) Kg lnP = 11.61 + 0.00700(2020-1990)
Kg = ln(P2)-ln(P1)/(t2-t1) = 11.61 + 0.21
lnP = 11.82
= ln(P2/P1)/(t2-t1)
P2020 = e 11.82
=(ln1182000-ln110500)/(2000-1990) P2020 = 135,944
= 0.07/10
Kg = 0.00700 Population Dynamics 20

21. Ratio and Correlation Method
• Assumes that the population Formulas
growth rate of any given
community can be related to P2/P2R = P1/P1R = KR
a larger region, i.e. county,
state.
• Use of the appropriate scale P2 = Projected population
factor allows correlation P2R = Projected population in
the larger region
P1 = Population at last census
for the projected region
P1R = Population at last census
for the projected region in the
larger region
KR = ratio or correlation
constant
Population Dynamics 21

22. Component Method
Based on the detailed
analysis of the
components that make
up population growth:
• Natural increase,
births over deaths
• Migration whose
accurate
determination is
extremely complex
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23. Population Densities
• Zoning Categories (Typical, vary
by community)
• "Fly", survey the town to gather Zoning Category Density (persons/acre)
topographical, physical data.
Consult the community planning
Residential - single 5-35
•
entity and determine the zoning Residential - multiple 30-100
plan. Apartments 100-1000
• Combine the zoning and physical
data. Commercial 15-30
• Measure the number of acres in Industrial 5-15
each zoning category. Multiply
the acreage by the density.
Open 0
Total the results which is the
current population if existing
acreage is used or the
saturation population if all the
land is considered.
Population Dynamics 23

24. Example # 3
Given: You have overflown a city, Find: The population
identified the zoning
compositions and plain metered
the areas with the following
result:
Zoning Area (acres) Usage Pop
Category (people/acre)
Zoning Category Area(acres) Residential 457 20 9,140
Residential - single 457 - single
Residential - 112 Residential 112 65 7,280
multiple - multiple
Apartments 3 Apartments 3 550 1,650
Commercial 87 Commercial 87 22.5 1,958
Industrial 22 Industrial 22 10 220
Open 176 Open 176 0 0
TOTAL 20,248
Population Dynamics 24

25. Assignment # 2 Due Date: 4 th March,2013
Given: Arithmetic Numerical Given: Geometric Numerical
Case Case
t1 = 2000, P1=150,000 t1 = 2000, P1=150,000
t2 = 2010, P2=178,200 t2 = 2010, P2=178,200
Find: Find:
A.) Ka A.) Kg
B.) General equation B.) General equation
C.) Population in 2020, 2030 and C.) Population in 2020, 2030 and
2050 2050
Note: The assignment should be
handwritten and submitted
individually
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26. Pakistan’s Population
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27. Pakistan’s Population Rank
Order in the World
Year Rank Population (Million)
1950 14 33.0
2009 6 169
Net Addition in Population
BIRTHS DEATHS ADDITION
In One Year 4.2M 1.3M 2.9M
One Month 350,833 110,000 240,833
One Day 11,534 3,616 7,918
One Minute 8
Population Dynamics 3 5 27

28. Pakistan Population Policy
2010
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29. Population Dynamics 29

30. Our Future-Our Choices
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31. Thank You
lokhaze@hotmail.com
Cell: 0345-5077775