This report provides the London Assembly Police and Crime Committee with an update on the Met’s progress against the Mayor’s policing priorities as set out in the Police and Crime Plan 2013-16. The report includes a review of performance against the 20.20.20 targets to reduce key crimes, improve public confidence and cut costs – all by 20 per cent; it also reviews the Met’s performance in other areas of importance to Londoners.
The next report will be produced with performance information up until the end of the financial year (March 2014).
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Police and Crime Commitee monitoring report
1. LONDONASSEMBLY Police and Crime Committee
1
Monitoring the
Mayor’s policing
and crime
priorities –
2013-14
(mid-year)
February 2014
Contact:
dan.maton@London.gov.uk
About this report
The purpose of this report is to provide the Police and Crime Committee with an
update on the Met’s progress against the Mayor’s policing priorities as set out in the
Police and Crime Plan 2013-16. The report includes a review of performance against
the 20.20.20 targets to reduce key crimes, improve public confidence and cut costs – all
by 20 per cent; it also reviews the Met’s performance in other areas of importance to
Londoners.
The next report will be produced with performance information up until the end of the
financial year (March 2014).
Key points
Recorded crime:
• Recorded crime fell by eight per cent in London in the 12 months to September 2013.
• Since March 2008, total recorded crime has fallen faster outside of London. But in
recent months, the fall has been sharper in London.
Public perceptions of the Met:
• Public confidence levels in the Met remain stable: 63 per cent of Londoners thought
the Met was doing a ‘good or excellent’ job in September 2013, one percentage point
higher than in September 2012.
• Since October 2012, the Met has had fewer than 31,000 police officers.
Managing the force:
• MOPAC has budgeted new savings and efficiencies totalling £134 million in 2014-15
and £171 million in 2015-16.
2. 2
1. Recorded crime: recorded crime fell by eight per cent in the 12 months to September 2013
PCC crime dashboard
In its response to the draft Police and Crime Plan, the Committee
highlighted a number of crimes that were not included in MOPAC’s
seven priority crimes. It will monitor these closely.
LONDONASSEMBLY Police and Crime Committee
8.4 per cent
The fall in total notifiable offences in the 12 months to September 2013
compared to the previous 12 months.
From October 2012 to September 2013 there were 728,000 notifiable
offences (12 months to September 2012: 795,000).
Source: London Datastore
Source: London Datastore
12 months to
Sept 2012
12 months to
Sept 2013
Change
Rape offences
3,087 3,588 16%
Knife crime offences
12,653 10,749 -15%
Serious youth violence
victims 5,699 5,327 -7%
Racist and religious
hate victims 9,124 8,716 -4%
Faith hate victims
614 777 27%
Domestic offences
47,864 50,732 6%
Comparing the Met to similar forces
HMIC publishes crime statistics for all police forces in
England and Wales.
Offences per 1,000 of population:
12 months to
Sept 2012
12 months
to Sept 2013
Change
Greater
Manchester 71 66 -7%
The Met*
93 87 -7%
West Midlands
64 63 -1%
West Yorkshire 76 73 -4%
MSF average
70 67 -4%
4 per cent
The fall in total notifiable offences across the Met’s Most
Similar Forces group in the 12 months to September 2013
compared to the previous 12 months. The Met’s fall was 7
per cent.
Source: HMIC Crime and Policing Comparator Data
*HMIC data may differ slightly to London Datastore
statistics which are live. It also measures crime
differently: as a rate (i.e. crimes per head). The London
Datastore, in contrast, shows the absolute number of
recorded offences.
3. 3
LONDONASSEMBLY Police and Crime Committee
Recorded crime has fallen faster outside of London. But in the last year, the fall has been
sharper in London.
15 per cent
The fall in total recorded crime in the 12 months to September 2013, compared to the 12 months to March 2008. By
comparison, recorded crime fell by 30 per cent in the Met’s Most Similar Group of forces, and by 33 per cent across forces
in the rest of England and Wales. However, in the last two quarters, the fall in recorded crime has been sharper in London.
Source: Office for National Statistics, Crime Statistics (Figures are for all recorded crime excluding fraud, as per HMIC methodology. The Met’s Most
Similar Group includes Greater Manchester, West Midlands and West Yorkshire police forces).
-15%
-30%
-33%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Changes in recorded crime since March 2008
The Met
Most Similar Group average
Rest of England and
Wales
4. 4
Recent data shows that there have been around 30,000 MOPAC priority offences per month
Progress against mayoral objectives Reducing neighbourhood crimes
The Mayor’s aim is to drive down crime by at
least 20 per cent in the key categories of
burglary, criminal damage, theft of and from
motor vehicles, violence with injury, robbery
and theft from the person.
(Police and Crime Plan 2013-16, page 33)
Key points:
• From November 2012 to October
2013, there were 369,000 MOPAC priority
crimes (November 2011 to October 2012:
394,000).
• In October 2013, there were 31,252
MOPAC priority crimes, the highest level
since January 2013.
LONDONASSEMBLY Police and Crime Committee
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
May…
Nov…
May…
Nov…
May…
Nov…
May…
Nov…
May…
Nov…
May…
Nov…
May…
Nov…
May…
Nov…
Number of recorded MOPAC priority offences per month
(thousands)
Actual number of offences for seven MOPAC priority crimes
Actual trend based on number of offences from May 2008 to April 2012
Trend required to meet 20 per cent crime reduction target by 2016
Sources: London Datastore; Performance against this target will be measured from May 2012
(MOPAC Challenge meeting, 2 October 2012)
6.3 per cent
The total fall in MOPAC priority crimes in
the 12 months to October 2013 (compared
to the previous 12 months).
MOPAC has also set the Met a stretch
target to reduce its seven priority offences
by 20 per cent compared to 2011-12 levels.
The number of offences would need to be
326,000 per year to meet this target.
Source: London Datastore
5. 5
Recorded offences for robbery, theft of motor vehicles and criminal damage have all fallen by over ten
per cent in the last 12 months
LONDONASSEMBLY Police and Crime Committee
Key points
• Recorded offences for six
of the seven MOPAC
priority crimes have
decreased in the 12
months to October
2013, compared to the 12
months to October 2012.
• Theft from Person
recorded offences
increased by 4.7 per cent.
• Robbery, Theft of Motor
Vehicle and Criminal
Damage all fell by over ten
per cent.
Source: London Datastore
The change in the number of recorded MOPAC priority offences in the 12
months to October 2013, compared to the previous 12 months
-5.6%
-13.6%
4.7%
-5.5%
-10.7%
-5.3%
-11.5%
Violence
with Injury
Robbery Theft from
Person
Burglary Theft of
Motor
Vehicle
Theft from
Motor
Vehicle
Criminal
Damage
6. 6
Across London, Westminster has had the most offences per head in all crime categories
Crimes by borough
The Met publishes the number of offences by borough for eight
different crime types. The following tables show the three
boroughs with the most and least recorded offences across these
crime types (based on the number of offences in each borough
from April to September 2013, per 1,000 of population).
LONDONASSEMBLY Police and Crime Committee
Most offences per
1,000 of
population
Least offences per
1,000 of
population
Violence
Against The
Person
Westminster
Richmond Upon
Thames
Tower Hamlets Bexley
Hackney Barnet
Sexual Offences
Westminster
Richmond Upon
Thames
Southwark Kingston upon Thames
Newham Havering
Robbery
Westminster Kingston upon Thames
Lambeth
Richmond Upon
Thames
Southwark Bexley
Burglary
Westminster Kingston upon Thames
Camden Sutton
Lambeth Bexley
Most offences per
1,000 of
population
Least offences
per 1,000 of
population
Theft & Handling
Westminster Harrow
Camden Bexley
Kensington & Chelsea Sutton
Fraud & Forgery
Westminster Havering
Newham Sutton
Kensington & Chelsea Hackney
Criminal Damage
Westminster Harrow
Tower Hamlets Redbridge
Barking & Dagenham Kensington & Chelsea
Drugs
Westminster Sutton
Tower Hamlets Barnet
Hammersmith &
Fulham Hillingdon
21
Average number offences each month in Westminster per
1,000 of population from April 2013 to September 2013 –
the highest rate of all boroughs. Second highest was
Camden (11 per 1,000), followed by Kensington & Chelsea
and Islington (both 10 per 1,000).
Sources: MPS Crime Figures (www.met.police.uk/crimefigures); GLA
Intelligence Unit – 2011 Census data
7. 7
2. Public perceptions of the Met: Confidence in the police remains stable
Public confidence
MOPAC’s wants the Met to improve public confidence so that
by 2016, 75 per cent of Londoners think that the police are
doing a ‘good’ or ‘excellent’ job by 2016, as measured by the
Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW).
(Police and Crime Plan 2013-16, page 38)
LONDONASSEMBLY Police and Crime Committee
Least worried: Most worried:
Kingston upon Thames (15%) Newham (54%)
Merton (15%) Redbridge (45%)
Richmond upon Thames (16%) Tower Hamlets (43%)
78.5 per cent
Victims satisfied with the overall service provided by the
Met from October 2012 to September 2013 (2011-12:
74.6 per cent).
In 2012-13, the average across the Met’s Most Similar
Forces was 85.9 per cent (2011-12: 86.1 per cent).
Source: HMIC Crime and Policing Comparator Data
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13
Police are doing a good or excellent job
London England Target
63 per cent
Londoners who thought that overall the police were
doing a good or excellent job in September 2013
(September 2012: 62 per cent).
Source: Crime Survey for England and Wales
Public opinion
Londoners worried or very worried about crime in their area:
32 per cent
Londoners who were worried or very worried about crime
in their area (12 months to September 2013).
Source: London Datastore (based on MPS Public Attitudes Survey
results)
Victim support
• In September 2013, the Met had the lowest victim satisfaction
ratings of any force in England and Wales.
• In addition to CSEW, the Met conducts its own Public Attitude
Surveys. These show that public confidence in the police
increased in the last year: from 64 per cent in September
2012, to 67 per cent in September 2013 (source: London
Datastore).
8. 8
The Met has had fewer than 31,000 police officers since October 2012
Police strength
MOPAC plan to keep police numbers as
high as possible at or around 32,000
(Police and Crime Plan 2013-16, page
22)
Key points:
• In the 12 months to September
2013, police officer strength ranged
from a low of 30,235 (March 2013) to
a high of 31,121 (October 2012).
• Average PCSO strength in the 12
months to September 2013 was
2,587. PCSO strength ranged from a
low of 2,324 (September 2013) to a
high of 2,857 (October 2012)
• Average police staff strength in the 12
months to September 2013 was
12,667. Police staff strength ranged
from a low of 12,113 (September
2013) to a high of 13,045 (November
2012).
LONDONASSEMBLY Police and Crime Committee
Police strength (full time equivalents)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Police officers
32,000
PCSOs
Police staff
30,584
Average number of police officers from October 2012 to September 2013. The
average number from October 2011 to September 2013 was 31,564.
Source: London Datastore
9. 9
Stop and Search
LONDONASSEMBLY Police and Crime Committee
713
The number of times the Met used Taser in 2012, an 88
per cent increase compared to 2011 (most recent data)
Sources: Home Office, September 2013; Standard, 28 January 2014.
23.1 per cent
Fall in the number of people searched in the 12 months to September
2013 compared to the 12 months to September 2012.
43 per cent
Increase in the average rate of searches resulting in an arrest in the 12
months to September 2013, compared to the 12 months to
September 2012.
Source: London Datastore
1,547
Section 60 searches by the Met from April 2013 to
September 2013. 514 of these took place in August 2013.
Source: Stop and Search Annual Volumes, MPS Publication Scheme
Taser use
*Searches include searches under PACE (Police and Criminal
Evidence Act), S23 Drugs Act, S47 Firearms Act plus a very small
number not included in the other categories (e.g. s163 Road Traffic
Act)
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Number of searches*
Stop & search arrest rate (%)
• Categories of Taser use include:
drawn, aimed, arced, red
dotted, drive stun and fired.
• The Met has launched a Taser
website. (It does not yet publish
recent data on Taser use.)
• FOI requests show that the Met
used Taser 713 times in
2012, and 353 times in the first
three months of 2013.
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
(to Sep)
S60
searches
91,860 53,533 39,315 3,158 1,547
Change on
previous
year
-16.4% -41.7% -26.6% -92.0% N/a
The number of searches continue to fall in 2013; searches resulting in an arrest are up
0
200
400
600
800
2009 2010 2011
MPS - all uses
MSF average
10. 10
Public complaints
LONDONASSEMBLY Police and Crime Committee
6.2 per cent
Public complaints allegations that were finalised with the
result of substantiated in the 12 months to September
2013 (12 months to September 2012: 6.2 per cent).
Source: Public Complaints Key Indicators, MPS Publication Scheme
Key points
• 10,599 public complaint
allegations were finalised in the
12 months to September
2013, 12 per cent less than the
previous year (12 months to
September 2012: 12,101)
• 661 public complaint allegations
were finalised with the result of
substantiated in the 12 months to
September 2013, 12 per cent less
than the previous year (12
months to September 2012: 749)
• 1,583 public complaint allegations
were finalised with the result of
local resolution in the 12 months
to September 2013, 7 per cent
less than the previous year (12
months to September 2012:
1,702)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Public
complaint
allegations
finalised per
month (No.)
Local resolution
allegations as a
proportion of all
finalised
allegations (%)
Substantiated
allegations as a
proportion of all
finalised
allegations (%)
14.9 per cent
Public complaints allegations that were finalised with the
result of local resolution in the 12 months to September
2013 (12 months to September 2012: 14.1 per cent).
Source: Public Complaints Key Indicators, MPS Publication Scheme
The number of public complaint allegations finalised has fallen by 12 per cent in the last year
11. 11
Managing the cost of policing
The Mayor’s aim is to cut costs to absorb a reduction in the
central grant to the Met budget of 20 per cent
(Police and Crime Plan 2013-16, page 44)
MOPAC budget submission 2014 to 2016
• In December 2013, MOPAC submitted its draft budget for
2014-15 and 2015-16.
• In 2014-15, total revenue spending will be
£3,253 million, a fall of £32 million (one per cent)
compared to 2013-14.
• Capital spending will increase significantly: from
£178 million in 2013-14, to £368 million in 2014-15, a rise
of £190 million (107 per cent). This investment will
support changes to the Met’s estate and support services
(including IT) that aim to reduce the running costs of these
services in future years.
• MOPAC has budgeted new savings and efficiencies
totalling £134 million in 2014-15 and £171 million in
2015-16.
• Further uncertainty over central government funding for
police services still remains. When the Home Secretary
released provisional details of the police settlement in
December 2013, there was no information on funding in
2015-16 for the Main Police Grant, specific grants or the
council tax support grant.
Source: Budget Submission 2014-15 to 2015-16 (DMPC decision 2013-176)
LONDONASSEMBLY Police and Crime Committee
Financial performance in 2013-14 (as at November 2013)
• MOPAC is forecasting an underspend of £13 million in
2013-14 (0.5 per cent of total net expenditure).
• Savings on pay budgets are offsetting overspends on
overtime and running costs.
• The Met’s latest workforce projections indicate that police
officer strength will be around 30,900 by March 2014, 300
below the budgeted number.
• MOPAC is forecasting an £8.5 million overspend on
premises costs in 2013-14 (4.5 per cent of budgeted
expenditure for premises costs). This is due to delays in
realising Corporate Real Estate savings and increased
forecasts for facilities management costs.
Source: MOPAC report to PCC – 30 January 2014.
Governing the force: recent updates
• The Met is considering a new fleet strategy to consider
reconfiguring fleet requirements for the future
(Management Board, 5 November 2013).
• The Met will give police officers mobile devices to work
remotely. But the Management Board is concerned that
these might not be fully deployed until October 2016
(Management Board, 5 November 2013).
• The Met expects that leaving Scotland Yard and relocating
to the Curtis Green building will reduce running costs by
£7 million per year (DMPC decision 2013-197).
3. Managing the force: MOPAC/MPS will double capital investment in 2014-15