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The digital transition 2.0
  Heroes and Zeroes

       Nicholas Lovell
About me
• Amazon US:
  http://amzn.to/RQwAhA

• Amazon UK:
  http://amzn.to/R6kzHA
Subscribe to the blog!
Heroes and zeros
2012
My zeroes

     Zynga          From $20 billion rumoured
                    valuation to less than cash     
Subscription MMOs    The Old Republic
                                                    
   Handhelds         3DS below cost. PS Vita DOA
                                                    
      THQ            80% share price fall. Breach
                     of debt covenants              
My heroes

PlayStation Home   Sony’s stealth virtual world
                                                  
   Nimblebit        Apple’s game of the year
                    2011                          
     Gaikai         $380 million exit to Sony
                                                  
    Amazon          AWS. Kindle. Kindle Fire.
                                                  
How did you do?
                      My prediction   Your prediction   Result

     Zynga                Zero             Zero          Zero

Subscription MMOs         Zero             Zero          Zero

   Handhelds              Zero             Zero          Zero

      THQ                 Zero             Zero          Zero

PlayStation Home          Hero             Zero          Zero

    Nimblebit             Hero             Hero          Hero

     Gaikai               Hero             Hero          Hero

    Amazon                Hero             Hero          Hero
Would you buy Zynga?
Market value                      1,716.9
Financial debt                      100.0
Cash                              (394.4)
Marketable securities             (928.7)
Long-term marketable securities   (325.6)
San Francisco Headquarters        (274.8)
Zynga's Enterprise Value          (106.5)
Would you buy Zynga?


• Yes



• No
Heroes and zeros
2013
Epic Games




“The free-to-play game is
going to win”
   - Mike Sweeney, co-founder
Epic: Hero or Zero?


• Hero

• Zero
NPD
        NPD’s focus          Industry future

•   By territory         • Global
•   Physical             • Digital
•   AAA                  • Casual, AAA, indie…
•   Upfront payments     • Freemium, paymium
                           and more
                         • Mobile, social,
                           browser…
NPD: Hero or Zero?


• Hero

• Zero
DeNA




ARPDAU > $1
Q2 revenues: $627 m
DeNA: Hero or Zero?


• Hero

• Zero
Paymium
Unlock the true fans


PRICE   Revenue
        opportunity




                        Marketing opportunity




                                                Demand
Paymium: Hero or Zero?


• Hero

• Zero
Windows 8 AppStore
Win8 Appstore: Hero or Zero?


• Hero

• Zero
World of Warcraft




• 10 million subs
• Down from 12 million
• Small uplift from Mists of Pandaria
World of Warcraft: Hero or Zero?



• Hero

• Zero
Paid DLC




• 30% of iOS/Android IAP revenue in the US comes from
  transactions valued at $50
• 51% comes from transactions of more than $20
• Players don’t pay for content; they pay for database entries
PDLC: Hero or Zero?


• Hero

• Zero
Kickstarter
Kickstarter: Hero or Zero?


• Hero

• Zero
Did you agree?
                       I said   You said

       Epic            Hero

       NPD             Zero

      DeNA             Hero

     Paymium           Hero

Windows 8 Appstore     Zero

 World of Warcraft     Zero

     Paid DLC          Zero

    Kickstarter        Hero
Thank you

  Follow my blog
www.gamesbrief.com

    Buy my books
http://amzn.to/R6kzHA

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Digital Transition: The Heroes and Zeroes - Nicholas Lovell, Founder, GamesBrief

  • 1. The digital transition 2.0 Heroes and Zeroes Nicholas Lovell
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7. • Amazon US: http://amzn.to/RQwAhA • Amazon UK: http://amzn.to/R6kzHA
  • 8.
  • 11. My zeroes Zynga From $20 billion rumoured valuation to less than cash  Subscription MMOs The Old Republic  Handhelds 3DS below cost. PS Vita DOA  THQ 80% share price fall. Breach of debt covenants 
  • 12. My heroes PlayStation Home Sony’s stealth virtual world  Nimblebit Apple’s game of the year 2011  Gaikai $380 million exit to Sony  Amazon AWS. Kindle. Kindle Fire. 
  • 13. How did you do? My prediction Your prediction Result Zynga Zero Zero Zero Subscription MMOs Zero Zero Zero Handhelds Zero Zero Zero THQ Zero Zero Zero PlayStation Home Hero Zero Zero Nimblebit Hero Hero Hero Gaikai Hero Hero Hero Amazon Hero Hero Hero
  • 14. Would you buy Zynga? Market value 1,716.9 Financial debt 100.0 Cash (394.4) Marketable securities (928.7) Long-term marketable securities (325.6) San Francisco Headquarters (274.8) Zynga's Enterprise Value (106.5)
  • 15. Would you buy Zynga? • Yes • No
  • 17. Epic Games “The free-to-play game is going to win” - Mike Sweeney, co-founder
  • 18. Epic: Hero or Zero? • Hero • Zero
  • 19. NPD NPD’s focus Industry future • By territory • Global • Physical • Digital • AAA • Casual, AAA, indie… • Upfront payments • Freemium, paymium and more • Mobile, social, browser…
  • 20. NPD: Hero or Zero? • Hero • Zero
  • 21. DeNA ARPDAU > $1 Q2 revenues: $627 m
  • 22. DeNA: Hero or Zero? • Hero • Zero
  • 24. Unlock the true fans PRICE Revenue opportunity Marketing opportunity Demand
  • 25. Paymium: Hero or Zero? • Hero • Zero
  • 27. Win8 Appstore: Hero or Zero? • Hero • Zero
  • 28. World of Warcraft • 10 million subs • Down from 12 million • Small uplift from Mists of Pandaria
  • 29. World of Warcraft: Hero or Zero? • Hero • Zero
  • 30. Paid DLC • 30% of iOS/Android IAP revenue in the US comes from transactions valued at $50 • 51% comes from transactions of more than $20 • Players don’t pay for content; they pay for database entries
  • 31. PDLC: Hero or Zero? • Hero • Zero
  • 33. Kickstarter: Hero or Zero? • Hero • Zero
  • 34. Did you agree? I said You said Epic Hero NPD Zero DeNA Hero Paymium Hero Windows 8 Appstore Zero World of Warcraft Zero Paid DLC Zero Kickstarter Hero
  • 35. Thank you Follow my blog www.gamesbrief.com Buy my books http://amzn.to/R6kzHA