Patrick Copeland presents the first three principles of the eXtreme innovation approach based on the Pretotyping Manifesto: Innovators Beat Ideas, Pretotypes Beat Productypes, and Data Beats Opinion.

1. Innovation at Google
...plus a manifesto
Patrick Copeland
Google Inc.

2. “N
o”
Co
ve
In r
c of
idea
sea of failure

3. Lost In
Translation
Actual
Innovation Innovation Model
Innovation
Potential
Lost
Innovation

4. Top-down Democratic
Innovation Innovation
1. Create a Research Lab 1. Create an innovation culture
2. Hire a bunch of PhDs 2. Use all employees
3. Ideas: few, big & from the top 3. Ideas: lots from everywhere
4. Close and secretive 4. Open and shared environment
environment and results and results
5. Formal research proposals 5. Informal proposals – if that
6. Papers, patents, ..., products 6. Prototypes, products, ..., papers

5. ?
Top-down Innovation Innovation
Innovation
Potential Democratic Innovation
Innovation

6. the innovation odds
X% of all new Y fail ...
... even if they are very well implemented

7. Build the
right ‘it’
vs.
Build ‘it’
right

8. the pretotyping manifesto
innovators beat ideas
pretotypes beat productypes
data beats opinions
doing beats talking
simple beats complex
now beats later
commitment beats committees

9. innovators
beat
ideas

10. Ideas, ideas, ideas ..
“We need some innovative ideas!”
“Where’s the next billion dollar
idea?”
“I have an idea that will change the
world!”

11. $ value of
ideas?

12. Buy My Ideas
I am no Steve
Jobs, but I
dress like
him...

13. Patrick’s $B idea
$B idea from Alberto
Bidding starts at $1,000
Price is for idea only. There is no explicit or implicit offer of help to implement the idea. The idea may not be implemented in a cost-effective
way – possibly not at all. The seller of the idea believes that the idea is a good one, but cannot guarantee its success. Since we don’t know
all the ideas that have been thought, the originality of this idea cannot be guaranteed; it’s very possible that other people have had this idea.
This idea is non-returnable and the sale is final. No credit or refunds will be issued.
Alberto Savoia, Google Inc., Jeremy Clark, FXX Inc., Patrick Copeland, Google Inc. – All Rights Reserved

14. Alberto Savoia, Google Inc., Jeremy Clark, FXX Inc., Patrick Copeland, Google Inc. – All Rights Reserved

16. Edison and the lightbulb
What’s the big deal?
=
X
Idea: use electricity to make light
X
Idea: electricity to cause incandescence
X
Idea: vacuum + bulb to prevent burning

17. 1%
99%

18. # of innovators
~0
=
# of ideas
Alberto Savoia, Google Inc., Jeremy Clark, FXX Inc., Patrick Copeland, Google Inc. – All Rights Reserved

20. Another huge problem
with ideas ...

21. Opinion
Idea
Opinion
Welcome to
Opinion
Thoughtland
Pop.
8

22. Thoughtland ive
Po sit
Where every idea can be a winner!
Fa lse
Alberto Savoia, Google Inc., Jeremy Clark, FXX Inc., Patrick Copeland, Google Inc. – All Rights Reserved

23. Thoughtland ve
ati
Neg
Where every idea can be loser!
se
Fal
Alberto Savoia, Google Inc., Jeremy Clark, FXX Inc., Patrick Copeland, Google Inc. – All Rights Reserved

24. Thoughtland k
Where every idea needs to p Thin
fit in!
ou Gr
Alberto Savoia, Google Inc., Jeremy Clark, FXX Inc., Patrick Copeland, Google Inc. – All Rights Reserved

25. ??????

27. E
S AL off
%
50 Great idea from Patrick
ly
on 95
w .
No 499
$
Bidding starts at $1,000
Alberto Savoia, Google Inc., Jeremy Clark, FXX Inc., Patrick Copeland, Google Inc. – All Rights Reserved

28. If you want innovation,
don’t look for ideas
(lightbulbs),
look for innovators
(Thomas Edisons).
Alberto Savoia, Google Inc., Jeremy Clark, FXX Inc., Patrick Copeland, Google Inc. – All Rights Reserved

29. How Do You Find
Innovators?

30. p
ho
ty
p in
g Spot the
wo
r ks
o
et
am
pl
e
fr
om
pr
Innovator
Ex

31. ”
op
sh
rk
Wo
ng
il
e
Ap
p
Pr
et
Exercise #1
o ty
pi
ob
“M
om
fr
e
pl
am
Ex
Spot the
Innovators

32. pretotypes
beat
productypes

33. The Innovator’s Nightmare
Spending years and millions,
to build and perfect
a product or service
that people don’t need
or want.

34. Building the right “it” vs.
Building “it” right

35. IBM & Speech-to-Text Technology
Dear Mr. Jones,
In reply to your letter dated ...
$ $$ $$
$$

36. X Dear Mr. Jones,
In reply to your letter dated ...
Pretendotype
Pretotype

37. “We love the idea of speech-to-text
and we’ll pay big $ for it
if you can built it right.”
Before After
pretotype pretotype
tests tests
Alberto Savoia, Google Inc., Jeremy Clark, FXX Inc., Patrick Copeland, Google Inc. – All Rights Reserved

38. The Original Palm “Pre”

39. Testing Your Belief
More
Belief
in Idea
Less
minutes hours days weeks months
Ideation Pretotyping Prototyping Productyping
Alberto Savoia, Google Inc., Jeremy Clark, FXX Inc., Patrick Copeland, Google Inc. – All Rights Reserved

40. Pretotyping
Fake it before you make it
Prototyping Pretotyping
• Investment: days, weeks • Investment: hours, days
• Main Q: Can we build it? • Main Q: Would we use it?
• Deliverable: Working • Deliverable: [Working]
prototype pretotype

41. Fail Fast
Compulsion to
keep going
at all costs
minutes hours days weeks months years
Time Invested

42. p
ho
r ks
wo
ng
pi
fr
om
pr
et
ot
y
Exercise #2
e
pl
am
Ex
Create your own
innovative Android app
paper-pretotypes
5 minutes

44. Park-Jerk Pretotype
Times FL
used OP
5
per
week
1 2 3 4 5
Week

45. “We are not retreating
– we are advancing in
another direction.”
Douglas McArthur

47. “Good Day”
Pretotype
Times
HI
used T
5
per
week
1 2 3 4 5
Week

48. Make sure you are
building the right thing
before you invest a lot in
building it right.
Alberto Savoia, Google Inc., Jeremy Clark, FXX Inc., Patrick Copeland, Google Inc. – All Rights Reserved

49. p
ho
r ks
wo
ng
pi
fr
om
pr
et
ot
y
Exercise #3
e
pl
am
Ex
Create your own
innovative Android
working-pretotype
using Androgen
30 minutes

50. data
beats
opinions

51. Are you on the right track?
(i.e. building the right ‘it’)
Credibility
Usage data High
Pretotype
Prototype Med
Idea Low

52. Pr
et
ot
HITorFLOP yp
e
F.L.O.P.
Failure in
Launch
Operations or
Premise

53. HITorFLOP
I (people invited to try innovation)
T (people who actually try it)
R1 (return/retained users after 1 week)
R2
R4
Time
T / I = % of tried / invited
Rn/T = % of return user after n weeks
Rn+1/Rn = % of returning users loss over
time

54. FLOP
I (people invited to try innovation)
T (people who actually try it)
R1 R2 R4
Time

55. FLOP
I (people invited to try innovation)
T (people who actually try it)
R1 R2 R4
Time

56. Huge HIT
I
T
R1
R2 R4
Time

57. HIT
I
T
R1
R2 R4
Time

58. Ditch on both sides of
the road
That’s
Let’s test
dumbest/best
500 shades
idea I’ve
of blue
ever heard
Alberto Savoia, Google Inc., Jeremy Clark, FXX Inc., Patrick Copeland, Google Inc. – All Rights Reserved

59. Vision vs. Hallucination
Vision Reality
Ideas Innovation Prototypes
Opinions Data
Alberto Savoia, Google Inc., Jeremy Clark, FXX Inc., Patrick Copeland, Google Inc. – All Rights Reserved

60. Ok, ok, but can anyone do
this? At any stage? In any
market condition?

61. Clone Wars
Then: Mainframe vs PC clones

62. Clone Wars
Now: Android

63. Fast Following
Then: Lotus Notes vs Office

64. Fast Following
Now: Chrome

65. Unique Advantage
Then: AT&T vs Sprint

66. Unique Advantage
Now: Google Search

67. Iterate early & often
Invent.
Test.
Test.
Test.
Welcome to
DataVisionville
Pop. 12
Repeat.
Alberto Savoia, Google Inc., Jeremy Clark, FXX Inc., Patrick Copeland, Google Inc. – All Rights Reserved

68. Run multiple experiments with
small subsets of target population
I
T
R1
R2 All Googlers
R4
Time

69. Using the Manifesto
#1 Try some Pretotypes/Experiments
#2 Develop, launch and test ideas to small group
#3 Abandon, or Repeat #2 until you see this:
Usage Users
and/or
#4 Go pitch your idea innovation with data
Alberto Savoia, Google Inc., Jeremy Clark, FXX Inc., Patrick Copeland, Google Inc. – All Rights Reserved

70. L E er
SA Of
f
st Great idea from Patrick
La
ly
on 5
w 9
No 19.
$
Bidding starts at $1,000
Alberto Savoia, Google Inc., Jeremy Clark, FXX Inc., Patrick Copeland, Google Inc. – All Rights Reserved

71. Patrick Copeland
copeland@google.com
pretotyping.org
make sure you are building the right ‘it’ before you build ‘it’ right

72. the pretotyping manifesto
innovators beat ideas
pretotypes beat productypes
data beats opinions
doing beats talking
simple beats complex
now beats later
commitment beats committees

73. Alberto Savoia, Google Inc., Jeremy Clark, FXX Inc., Patrick Copeland, Google Inc. – All Rights Reserved