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Wealth in 2015 DouglasReid dreid@business.queensu.ca @douglasreid Internationalization and Global Strategy #mbus902
Population in 2015 Source: Worldmapper.org
Administrivia Breaks at 345, 515 PM (Kingston time) Slides at slideshare.com (search for MBUS902) and on portal – after class Twitter hashtag #mbus902 Agenda Quick recap Internationalization - process Rationale Attractiveness Mode Course stuff
The Value Chain
Customer  willingness to pay Strategy Cost of delivering  what the customer buys
Four types of distance matter in IB Attributes Creating Distance Source:  Ghemawat, 2001
Distance Difference  Cost  Risk
Liability of foreignness
Firm-specific advantage
Internationalization Process Why Where What Locational attractiveness How
Why go abroad? Globalization rests on the multinational’s ability to exploit know-how and expertise gained in one market elsewhere at lower cost. Michael Porter,  Competition in Global Industries: A Conceptual Framework
ADDING Helps Answer “Why?”   Adding volume (growth) Decreasing costs Differentiating (increasing WTP) Improving industry attractiveness (bargaining power) Normalizing (optimizing) risk Generating knowledge (and other resources, capabilities) Source: Ghemawat
Resource seekers Source: Dunning
Market seekers Source: Dunning
Efficiency seekers Source: Dunning
Strategic Asset Seekers Geely FC-1(Source: www.leblogauto.com) Volvo XC90 (Source: www.autospectator.com) Source: Dunning
Does the company have the right attributes and skills?
Available alternatives Global forest inventory, 2000   worldmapper.org
Deciding to internationalize Value ADDING possible Reason / motive / need Skills available Lack of better home country alternatives
Increasing attention  given to defining  attractiveness
What makes a location attractive?
Relate to the Motivation for Internationalizing Resources (inputs) Markets Efficiency Strategic assets Others?
What’s attractive here?
Diamond of National Competitive Advantage
Clusters
The new geography of prosperity
Government  and social  advantages Natural  advantages Available  alternatives Entrant  characteristics, preferences and  choices
Many patterns of trade are centuries old
Source: New Scientist, 2007
Government, social and economic advantages
A good place to start a business…
Entrant characteristics,  preferences, and adaptations
Characteristics (1)
Characteristics (2)
Preferences Addressable Market: 510M  Subscribers: 93M
Choices: Aggregation (scale)
Choices: Adaptation (go local) Artist:  Liu Bolin
Choices: Arbitrage  (exploit difference)
What effect can time… …exert upon  attractiveness?
What? Can VC be fragmented? Can fragmented VC be controlled? Cost of re-location? Competitive risks? FSA leverage with new location? Effect on WTP / cost?
What Activities? Moderately attractive Most attractive Low Required degree of local adaptation Moderately attractive Least attractive High High Low Expected payoff from going international Source: Gupta and Govindarajan
The Value Chain Control – mechanism and cost Capital required Experience in country, nearby
Assuming compliance with local rules… …and a cost-benefit calculation… What are the big drivers  of mode choice?
Mode Escalating commitment Wholly-owned subsidiary Level of  Control  over  Foreign Activities Joint venture Franchising Licensing Export through agent Occasional export Resources Committed to Foreign Market  Source: Bartlett and Ghoshal
Mode: Closest, First Attributes Creating Distance Source:  Ghemawat, 2001
Export
Export Why Low cost means of internationalization Existence of market entry barriers prevents direct investment Low sales potential in host market May be high political risk How Usually, first order is unsolicited (“e” raises likelihood) May be supported by host country sales agent or rep Pros Cost effective, especially for small firms Cons Low returns Vulnerable to host country domestic competitors Relatively little useful learning about host market potential
Licensing
Licensing Why Insufficient capital to enter direct Codifiable IP (a valuable intangible asset) Great geographical distance to host country market Some adaptation required for host country consumption How Through partner who has manufacturing / sales capabilities Royalty and licensing fee negotiated Pros Return on IP (new revenue stream) Cons IP dissipation (create competitor) Governance and monitoring costs reduce profits Relatively little useful learning about host market potential
Joint venture
Joint Venture Why May be only way to enter market Attractive locational advantages -- high sales potential, low political risk, culturally proximate, partner with valuable IP How “Parents” A and B form “child” C, a host-country incorporated entity with own assets, management Pros Tremendous opportunity to learn about market potential Greater returns, usually, than export or licensing Cons Cost of expatriate management ($$$ and career path) Shared control IP dissipation, risk of creating powerful competitor Exit venture may mean exiting market
Wholly-owned subsidiary - Greenfield
WOS – Greenfield Why Unsatisfied demand in host market (growing market) Sufficient knowledge about host market to enter confidently Low political risk Lots of resources Market leader, or strongly advantaged in some key way Ability to customize for host market exists (or isn’t needed) How Transfer money, resources, management to new operation Integrate into global production system Pros Keep all returns Relatively low IP dissipation Possibly, lower risk of retaliation by incumbents Cons New facility is “sunk cost” – changes negotiating power with host country government Cost of expatriates ($$$ and career path) Need to hire host country nationals (employment risk)  Need to set up systems to comply with host country laws
Wholly-owned subsidiary – Acquisition
WOS – Acquisition Why Attractive candidate facility, or can be upgraded at reasonable cost Host country demand slowing or flat Low investment controls Low political risk More favourable cost / benefit than greenfield entry Window of opportunity How M&A with local advisors (legal, accounting, GR) Pros Acquire going concern (lower set-up risk) Existing relationships, systems, employees, revenues Few approvals (usually) beyond acquisition May block competitor from buying target Faster time-to-value Cons Administrative heritage is inertial force that may resist change Cost of expatriates ($$$ and career path) Loss of key host country staff if career path blocked Overpayment “Skeletons in the closet”
In full…
Let’s sum up
Assignments 3 and 4 3. 10-15 minute  presentation and  worked example of  decision making tool (class 6) 4: Final version of decision  making tool, plus descriptive write up, user instructions
What is a decision making tool in our context? Decision Foci Whether to internationalize Part of value chain to internationalize Where How Tool forms Conceptual model (e.g. 5 forces) Questionnaire (e.g. Suutari) Decision tree Foci * forms = 12 combinations…
Key Evaluative Criteria Reflects underlying ideas and theory correctly Usefulness to a non-expert Ability of a non-expert to use it Breadth (i.e., beyond a single industry setting) Hooked to other ideas (what precedes/follows you?)
Assignment 5 Reflective memo
What is working well? What can be improved? Steps:   Discuss in team, pick top 3 for each Email me by Friday, July 15 I’ll collate / redistribute to class (no edits) Comment and commit
Virtual office hours Sunday, July 10 12:00 – 2:00 PM http://queensbusiness.adobeconnect.com/douglasreid/ Backup will be Skype:  dreid150

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902 class 3

  • 1. Wealth in 2015 DouglasReid dreid@business.queensu.ca @douglasreid Internationalization and Global Strategy #mbus902
  • 2. Population in 2015 Source: Worldmapper.org
  • 3.
  • 4. Administrivia Breaks at 345, 515 PM (Kingston time) Slides at slideshare.com (search for MBUS902) and on portal – after class Twitter hashtag #mbus902 Agenda Quick recap Internationalization - process Rationale Attractiveness Mode Course stuff
  • 6. Customer willingness to pay Strategy Cost of delivering what the customer buys
  • 7. Four types of distance matter in IB Attributes Creating Distance Source: Ghemawat, 2001
  • 11.
  • 12. Internationalization Process Why Where What Locational attractiveness How
  • 13. Why go abroad? Globalization rests on the multinational’s ability to exploit know-how and expertise gained in one market elsewhere at lower cost. Michael Porter, Competition in Global Industries: A Conceptual Framework
  • 14. ADDING Helps Answer “Why?” Adding volume (growth) Decreasing costs Differentiating (increasing WTP) Improving industry attractiveness (bargaining power) Normalizing (optimizing) risk Generating knowledge (and other resources, capabilities) Source: Ghemawat
  • 18. Strategic Asset Seekers Geely FC-1(Source: www.leblogauto.com) Volvo XC90 (Source: www.autospectator.com) Source: Dunning
  • 19. Does the company have the right attributes and skills?
  • 20. Available alternatives Global forest inventory, 2000 worldmapper.org
  • 21. Deciding to internationalize Value ADDING possible Reason / motive / need Skills available Lack of better home country alternatives
  • 22. Increasing attention given to defining attractiveness
  • 23. What makes a location attractive?
  • 24. Relate to the Motivation for Internationalizing Resources (inputs) Markets Efficiency Strategic assets Others?
  • 26. Diamond of National Competitive Advantage
  • 28. The new geography of prosperity
  • 29. Government and social advantages Natural advantages Available alternatives Entrant characteristics, preferences and choices
  • 30.
  • 31. Many patterns of trade are centuries old
  • 33. Government, social and economic advantages
  • 34.
  • 35. A good place to start a business…
  • 36. Entrant characteristics, preferences, and adaptations
  • 39. Preferences Addressable Market: 510M Subscribers: 93M
  • 41. Choices: Adaptation (go local) Artist: Liu Bolin
  • 42. Choices: Arbitrage (exploit difference)
  • 43.
  • 44. What effect can time… …exert upon attractiveness?
  • 45. What? Can VC be fragmented? Can fragmented VC be controlled? Cost of re-location? Competitive risks? FSA leverage with new location? Effect on WTP / cost?
  • 46. What Activities? Moderately attractive Most attractive Low Required degree of local adaptation Moderately attractive Least attractive High High Low Expected payoff from going international Source: Gupta and Govindarajan
  • 47. The Value Chain Control – mechanism and cost Capital required Experience in country, nearby
  • 48. Assuming compliance with local rules… …and a cost-benefit calculation… What are the big drivers of mode choice?
  • 49. Mode Escalating commitment Wholly-owned subsidiary Level of Control over Foreign Activities Joint venture Franchising Licensing Export through agent Occasional export Resources Committed to Foreign Market Source: Bartlett and Ghoshal
  • 50. Mode: Closest, First Attributes Creating Distance Source: Ghemawat, 2001
  • 52. Export Why Low cost means of internationalization Existence of market entry barriers prevents direct investment Low sales potential in host market May be high political risk How Usually, first order is unsolicited (“e” raises likelihood) May be supported by host country sales agent or rep Pros Cost effective, especially for small firms Cons Low returns Vulnerable to host country domestic competitors Relatively little useful learning about host market potential
  • 54. Licensing Why Insufficient capital to enter direct Codifiable IP (a valuable intangible asset) Great geographical distance to host country market Some adaptation required for host country consumption How Through partner who has manufacturing / sales capabilities Royalty and licensing fee negotiated Pros Return on IP (new revenue stream) Cons IP dissipation (create competitor) Governance and monitoring costs reduce profits Relatively little useful learning about host market potential
  • 56. Joint Venture Why May be only way to enter market Attractive locational advantages -- high sales potential, low political risk, culturally proximate, partner with valuable IP How “Parents” A and B form “child” C, a host-country incorporated entity with own assets, management Pros Tremendous opportunity to learn about market potential Greater returns, usually, than export or licensing Cons Cost of expatriate management ($$$ and career path) Shared control IP dissipation, risk of creating powerful competitor Exit venture may mean exiting market
  • 58. WOS – Greenfield Why Unsatisfied demand in host market (growing market) Sufficient knowledge about host market to enter confidently Low political risk Lots of resources Market leader, or strongly advantaged in some key way Ability to customize for host market exists (or isn’t needed) How Transfer money, resources, management to new operation Integrate into global production system Pros Keep all returns Relatively low IP dissipation Possibly, lower risk of retaliation by incumbents Cons New facility is “sunk cost” – changes negotiating power with host country government Cost of expatriates ($$$ and career path) Need to hire host country nationals (employment risk) Need to set up systems to comply with host country laws
  • 60. WOS – Acquisition Why Attractive candidate facility, or can be upgraded at reasonable cost Host country demand slowing or flat Low investment controls Low political risk More favourable cost / benefit than greenfield entry Window of opportunity How M&A with local advisors (legal, accounting, GR) Pros Acquire going concern (lower set-up risk) Existing relationships, systems, employees, revenues Few approvals (usually) beyond acquisition May block competitor from buying target Faster time-to-value Cons Administrative heritage is inertial force that may resist change Cost of expatriates ($$$ and career path) Loss of key host country staff if career path blocked Overpayment “Skeletons in the closet”
  • 63. Assignments 3 and 4 3. 10-15 minute presentation and worked example of decision making tool (class 6) 4: Final version of decision making tool, plus descriptive write up, user instructions
  • 64. What is a decision making tool in our context? Decision Foci Whether to internationalize Part of value chain to internationalize Where How Tool forms Conceptual model (e.g. 5 forces) Questionnaire (e.g. Suutari) Decision tree Foci * forms = 12 combinations…
  • 65.
  • 66. Key Evaluative Criteria Reflects underlying ideas and theory correctly Usefulness to a non-expert Ability of a non-expert to use it Breadth (i.e., beyond a single industry setting) Hooked to other ideas (what precedes/follows you?)
  • 67.
  • 69. What is working well? What can be improved? Steps: Discuss in team, pick top 3 for each Email me by Friday, July 15 I’ll collate / redistribute to class (no edits) Comment and commit
  • 70. Virtual office hours Sunday, July 10 12:00 – 2:00 PM http://queensbusiness.adobeconnect.com/douglasreid/ Backup will be Skype: dreid150

Notas del editor

  1. Where does today fit
  2. The chart below shows a population-weighted history of the past two millennia. By this reckoning, over 28% of all the history made since the birth of Christ was made in the 20th century. Measured in years lived, the present century, which is only ten years old, is already "longer" than the whole of the 17th century. This century has made an even bigger contribution to economic history. Over 23% of all the goods and services made since 1AD were produced from 2001 to 2010.
  3. Key learning objectives
  4. The idea that a complete value-adding chain, from idea to final sale, should be internalized within a single company is essentially obsolete.Yet discussions of outsourcing tend to treat this as the preferred norm. It isn’t. And this won’t change soon.The location of “core activities” doesn’t need to be the home country – subsidiaries that are strategic leaders are facts as well as ideals.And there’s no reason to believe that the home country or market is or should be the dominant focus of the firm.That’s the reality of global business today. Key for you to internalize those ideas and reconceptualize how you see business being done.
  5. Distance comes in four flavours
  6. Liability of foreignness
  7. Note that since all intermediate goods can’t be traded……and the existence of obstacles to perfect markets through government-defined tariff and non-tariff barriers……it must be something about skill. Something different and distinct about the MNE – call it a capabilityOr a firm-specific advantage (BUILD)That exists and possibly interacts with a location-based advantageTo create competitive advantage*** where might that FSA exist?ProductProcessBrandPrivileged access to materials (inputs)Control processesPersonnel (corporate culture)
  8. Key idea is coping with differences – not seeing them as disastrous – but seeing them as opportunities for creative response.
  9. Why (ADDING)What (activities, or parts of value chain)Where (locational advantage)How (modes)
  10. March 28, 2010 definitiveagreementwith Ford signedGeelypays $1.8 billionFord bought Volvo Cars in 1999 for $6.45 billionVolvo’scurrentbook-value is $ 2.4 billion**** NB Volvo bought for lessthanbookvalue!!!Geelybenefitedfrom $ 800 million of preferentialChinesestateloansFord wasunderpressure to divestPreviouslydivested Aston Martin, Jaguar & LandRoverIP assettransferexplicitlyincluded in dealGEELYRoots in MotorbikemanufacturingAmong top 10 ChineseproducersSold327,000 carsin 20096% exportedFirststepto internationalization in 2003 throughsalesofficesImage of a low-endcarmanufacturerAmbitious5-year internationalizationplan -- 2/3 exports)Strategic goalsAcquisition of know how in building upscale car segmentAcquisition of marketing capabilities and customer base abroad Enlarge the brand portfolio and exploit the value attached to Volvo brand (safety and luxury)DriversGrowing competition in Chinese home market (need to conquer market share) pushes Geely towards resource seekingChinese government aid and supportChinese cultural long term orientation and mindsets (proactive)
  11. What are the skills needed? Can include corporate culture, coordinative mechanisms
  12. Q – Attractiveness relates to the purposes of internationalization…note what that sets up… -
  13. Both stories aren’t micro enough…See Polese, wealth and poverty of regions
  14. What are natural advantages?
  15. Rosling talk – about 2-3 minutes inhttp://www.ted.com/talks/view/id/92
  16. This bridges us to a new conceptual pasture in the course – from macro-level choices to operating choices, often around small things – which we’ll explore through two cases in the next three classes.
  17. Could include any competitively differentiating factor including spatial configuration of offices, personnel practices, R&D prowess, etc.Could include corporate cultureQ – what is corporate culture? Encoded success formula – what has worked in the pastOr could more specifically reflect the value chain configuration of a company
  18. Though this tends to undervalue the “soul” of the place, and accumulated wisdom of the place.
  19. NaguibSawiris is their CEO
  20. Only one thing has changed – absence of gravity on RHSContext matters
  21. What role does time play in all of this?
  22. Importance of activity to WTPPotential for cost reductionRisk of advantage dissipationControl, quality and brandingManagement timeOthers?
  23. The idea that a complete value-adding chain, from idea to final sale, should be internalized within a single company is essentially obsolete.Yet discussions of outsourcing tend to treat this as the preferred norm. It isn’t. And this won’t change soon.The location of “core activities” doesn’t need to be the home country – subsidiaries that are strategic leaders are facts as well as ideals.And there’s no reason to believe that the home country or market is or should be the dominant focus of the firm.That’s the reality of global business today. Key for you to internalize those ideas and reconceptualize how you see business being done.
  24. Mention this is the first time I’m doing this and I’m not expert on the software, so bear with meBackup will be SkypeOr, I could call your team room or youLet’s try this, see how it works