A few slides for a panel discussion on beyond software estimates, presented at Agile & Beyond, February 22nd, 2014

1. Who Needs An Estimate?
A Panel Discussion
Matt Heusser
David Hoppe
Steve “Steve” Rogalsky
And Angela “Do no” Harms
Agile And Beyond – February, 2014
Dearborn, MI

2. The ‘why’ of estimates
What are estimates for?
Having asked the question “why do you estimates?” over and over again, I Iget answers that usually fit into
Having asked the question “why do you estimates?” over and over again, get answers that usually fit into
these four categories:
these four categories:
A) Schedule Control. We need to have this done by may 1st to avoid bit penalties from the government.
A) Schedule Control. We need to have this done by may 1st to avoid bit penalties from the government.
B) Cost Control. IfIfthis costs us more than $5 million, ititisn't worth doing.
B) Cost Control. this costs us more than $5 million, isn't worth doing.
C) Comparison Shopping. I Icould do project XXor project Y - -which should I Ido? Or is ProjectX even worth it?
C) Comparison Shopping. could do project or project Y which should do? Or is ProjectX even worth it?
D) Governance. We want to make sure the company is investing its time/money 'well.'
D) Governance. We want to make sure the company is investing its time/money 'well.'
• Schedule Control
Having just done an
Having just done an
• Cost Control
• Comparison Shopping
• Governance
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3. An example
Let’s do an estimate!
Quick --Estimate, in inches, the:
Quick Estimate, in inches, the:
--Height of your foot
Height of your foot
--Distance from the top of your foot to your knee
Distance from the top of your foot to your knee
--Distance from the top of the knee to the belt
Distance from the top of the knee to the belt
--Distance from the belt to under-arms
Distance from the belt to under-arms
--Distance from under-arms to chin
Distance from under-arms to chin
--Distance from chin to top of head
Distance from chin to top of head
Add them up. Were you right?
Add them up. Were you right?
This is called functional decomposition. It is the simplest of estimation stratgies. Now how’d
This is called functional decomposition. It is the simplest of estimation stratgies. Now how’d
you do?
you do?
We have you add up six known, unchanging things, and we were off by aalot. Can we all
We have you add up six known, unchanging things, and we were off by lot. Can we all
agree that technical estimates, more often than not, provide bad information that is
agree that technical estimates, more often than not, provide bad information that is
susceptible to games ands manipulation?
susceptible to games ands manipulation?
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4. Our Definition of an estimate
• A technical contributor
• ...taking time from work
• ...to provide hours and dates
• ...to predict the schedule
This is our definition of an estimate.
This is our definition of an estimate.
#NoEstimates, then, recognizes that time spend estimating could be spend on
#NoEstimates, then, recognizes that time spend estimating could be spend on
delivery --code, analysis, tests.
delivery code, analysis, tests.
Not only that, but Estimates often fail to live up to their promises --they don’t do
Not only that, but Estimates often fail to live up to their promises they don’t do
the things we listed in the previous slide, or do them so poorly that they offer no
the things we listed in the previous slide, or do them so poorly that they offer no
additional value.
additional value.
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5. Introducing Our Panelists
Matt Heusser
Steve Rogalsky
Each particpant gets up to 22minutes to introduce themselves. After that, we’ll switch
Each particpant gets up to minutes to introduce themselves. After that, we’ll switch
the URL to:
the URL to:
David Hoppe
http://shamblespad.com/p/NoEstimates
http://shamblespad.com/p/NoEstimates
take questions
take questions
vote
vote
sort
sort
and answer!
and answer!
Angela Harms
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6. Where to go for more
Just a google search away:
Woody Zuill - No Estimates
Arlo Belshee - Naked Planning
‘No Estimates’ in Action: 5 ways to rethink Software
Projects
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How to Move Beyond Project Estimates and Provide
Better Value

7. Where to go for more
Just a google search away:
Woody Zuill - No Estimates
Arlo Belshee - Naked Planning
‘No Estimates’ in Action: 5 ways to rethink Software
Projects
6
6
7
6
7
How to Move Beyond Project Estimates and Provide
Better Value