James Brown from Jones Lang LaSalle, returns to MAPIC 2012 to give the famou Wrap-Up Keynote. Find key industry trends, figures and forecasts.

1. Wrap up - Mapic 2012
Adapting for Change
and Positioning for Growth
James Brown
Head of EMEA Retail Research & Consulting
james.brown@eu.jll.com

2. Looking Back
What has happened since Mapic 2011?
Mapic 2011
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3. European Economic Recovery Scenarios
Uncertainty and volatility remain...
Scenario 1: 10%
Upside scenario: strong bounce back
Scenario 2: 60%
Central scenario: ‘muddle’ through
Scenario 3: 30%
Downside scenario: disorderly breakdown of Eurozone
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4. Consumer and Retail Trade Confidence
Mild deterioration in consumer and trade confidence since last year…
4

5. Consumer Confidence Index Q3 2012
Consumer confidence below LT trend across Europe (excl. Turkey & Russia)…
Long-Term Country Average = 100
Confidence above Long-Term Country Average
Confidence below Long-Term Country Average
Country confidence October 2011
Source: European Commission (November 2012)
5

6. Retail Sales Growth Forecast 2012 - 2014
Multi speed forecast retail sales growth…
Source: Oxford Economics (October 2012); IHS Global Insight for Croatia and Ukraine (October 2012)
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7. The Rise and Rise of Online
The move to multi-channel is accelerating…
Internet retail spend per capita 2010 (£)
Source: Euromonitor
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8. The Impact of Multi-Channel Retail
Global trends and initiatives are emerging, FAST…
Tesco shopping wall, Korea
Source: Google
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9. The Retailer
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10. Retail Requirements are Changing
International opportunities for growth; increased competition…
Jones Lang LaSalle - Global 660
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Global 660, ESRI
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11. Destination Europe: Leading Cities
London remains ‘springboard’ to Europe for non-European retailers…
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, ‘Destination Europe 2013’
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12. Destination Europe: Core and Growth Cities
Growth, diversification; international borders no longer a barrier…
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, ‘Destination Europe 2013’
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13. Retailer Country of Origin
Italy leads exporter league, the US is catching up fast and China emerges…
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, ‘Destination Europe 2013’
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14. The Rise and Rise of Luxury
Thriving through turbulence…
• Continued growth anticipated
• Specific requirements
• Constrained supply of units
• Driving prime, luxury HS rents
• Favouring larger tourist markets
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15. Portfolio Optimisation for Legacy Retailers
Leases events area trigger for change...
Cumulative number of lease expiries (%)
Lease expiries per year (%)
Number of lease expiries per year Cumulative number of lease expiries
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle (April 2012)
Note: Analysis based on a sample of circa 15,000 European Shopping Centre lease contracts.
Lease expiry profile varies by country and by retail sub-sector. 1

16. The Owner & Developer
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17. Shopping Centre Pipeline H2 2012-2013
Tired stock in WE ripe for redevelopment, Asset Management…
45% of new stock across
Europe to be opened in
Russia and Turkey
combined…
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle (October 2012)
Note: Includes schemes >5,000m² GLA only; excludes Retail Warehousing and Factory Outlet
Centre.
Pipeline figures should be treated with caution. 19

18. Differentiation to Succeed
Key ingredients to succeed in a multi-channel World…
Embrace digital
Accessibility
Listen & communicate Cinema
Security
Culture
Retail Catering
Community engagement
Education
Service Pop-up
Environment Convenience
Click & collect
Know the customer
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19. NEW Opportunities: Travel Hubs
Europe’s top 100 airports have a combined 1.34 bn ‘visitors’ annually….
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20. The Investor
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21. European Retail Investment Volumes Q1-Q3 2012
€11.7bn invested in Q1-Q3 2012, down 50% y-o-y due to lack of large deals…
€178
Retail Transaction
€739
Volumes Q1-Q3 2012
in million € €580 €32
4,000 or over €844
2,000 to 4,000 €6 €43
1000 to 2,000
€3,595
500 to 1000
€436
200 to 500 €460
€405 €2,890
100 - 200
0 - 100 €101 €52
No Transactions €758
€121
€12
€29
€74
€118
€220
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle (October 2012)
Note: This review considers all investment sales of shopping centres, retail
warehouses, factory outlet centres and supermarkets in Europe. The analysis
excludes the high street and any investment deal less than $ 5 million in value. 23

22. European Retail Investment Drivers Q1-Q3 2012
Liquidity and fundamentals continue to attract majority of retail investment…
p.a.
Average Europe
€ 1,584 mn – 14% € 8,961 mn – 77%
Average EU (27 Countries)
€ 130 mn - 1% € 964 mn – 8%
Source: Oxford Economics (October 2012), Jones Lang LaSalle (October 2012)
Note: Average Retail Sales per Capita based on countries shown on graph.
% Share investment volumes based on countries shown on graph.
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23. Global Retail Investment
Continued globalisation and increased competition...
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24. Global Retail Investment
Redefining retail investment markets...
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25. European Retail Investment
Redefining retail investment…
• Absence of debt (for the majority) in the near term
• Global equity appetite for Retail investment to continue
• Partnering to continue – ‘Equity and Expertise’
• EMEA leads investment market but Asia is catching up
• Global flows to influence prime pricing for best retail schemes
• Spread between prime and secondary pricing likely to stay
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26. Summary
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27. 10 Takeaways
2013 – Still adapting and positioning for growth…
• Uncertainty to remain; economic and retail sales growth subdued
• Pockets of strong growth exist across Europe
• Targeted retail expansion to continue
• Do NOT underestimate the impact of digital
• Retailer optimisation and consolidation to continue
• Re-development becomes the new development in WE
• New development continues in Turkey and Russia in particular
• Retail investment market to remain focused on ‘best’
• Lack of debt fuelling 2 tier market - prime vs. secondary
• Internationalisation of investment and partnering to continue
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28. Adapting for Change
and Positioning for Growth
Thank you.
James Brown
Head of EMEA Retail Research & Consulting
james.brown@eu.jll.com