Dear Clients and Friends of Mercury: As you know, polling has always been core to the DNA of our company, an original capability dating back to 1999 which remains a critical part of our daily strategic work. Since the founding of the firm, there has been an explosion of polling data and polling firms, particularly during election years. To that end, we've decided to have our polling shop analyze the public polling data and provide you with a brief summary of what we're seeing in the public data that is credible, well-researched, interesting and timely. For the balance of this election season, we will provide this update on a bi-weekly basis. Post-election, we will continue with presentations monthly unless events warrant more frequent updates. This service is free to our clients and friends but if you do not want to receive this document, please let us know and we will immediately remove you from the distribution.

1. National Polling Assessment
September 2012

2. Key Numbers at a Glance
Right Direction/ Unemployment Consumer
Wrong Track Confidence
39% 8.1% -46.5
Right Direction August 2012 Sept. 9th, 2012
Healthcare Reform Obama Job Approval Obama
Favorability
40% 50% 53%
Good Idea Approve Favorable
Romney 2012 Ballot Generic Ballot
Favorability
44% 48% - 43% 49% - 43%
Favorable
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3. The country’s attitude about the future is improving…
Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right
direction, or are they off on the wrong track? Right Direction/
Wrong Track:
39%
Right Direction
Reuters/Ipsos Poll, conducted September 7-10, 2012 n=1,089 RVs, MoE = ± 3.1%
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4. …though unemployment remains above 8%...
Unemployment trend from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
Unemployment:
8.1%
August 2012
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5. …and consumer confidence is stagnant.
Consumer Confidence Index by Bloomberg:
Consumer Confidence
-42.2
Sept. 9th 2012
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6. Despite passing SCTOUS, health care reform is unpopular.
From what you have heard about Barack Obama's health care plan that was
passed by Congress and signed into law by the President in 2010, do you think
his plan is a good idea or a bad idea?
Healthcare Reform
40%
Good Idea
NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, conducted July 18-22, 2012 n=1,000 RVs, MoE = ± 3.1%
Mercury. 6

7. However, Obama’s job approval is resilient…
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as
president? Obama Job Approval
50%
Approve
Reuters/Ipsos Poll, conducted September 7-10, 2012 n=1,089 RVs, MoE = ± 3.1%
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8. …and his favorability remains high…
Overall, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Barack Obama?
Obama Favorable
53%
Favorable
(net +10)
ABC News/Washington Post Poll, conducted September 5-9, 2012 n=837 RVs, MoE = ± 4%
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9. …while Romney’s favorability is inverted…
Overall, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Mitt Romney?
Romney Favorable
44%
Favorable
(net -5)
ABC News/Washington Post Poll, conducted September 5-9, 2012 n=837 RVs, MoE = ± 4%
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10. …leading to an edge for Obama on the ballot…
If the presidential election were held today, how would you vote if the candidates
were Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and Republicans Mitt Romney
and Paul Ryan?
2012 Ballot
48% - 43%
Fox News Poll, conducted September 9 – 11, 2012, n=1,056 RVs, MoE = ± 3%
Mercury. 10

11. …and in key swing states.
Swing State Polling
New Hampshire
Wisconsin (10 EVs) (4 EVs)
Obama 49, Romney 47 Obama 45, Romney 40
Iowa (6 EVs) (Quinnipiac, 8/15-21, (WMUR, 9/4-10, n=592 LV)
n=1190 LV)
Obama 47, Romney 45
(PPP, 8/23-26, n=1244 LV)
Ohio (18 EVs)
Obama 50, Romney 43
Colorado (9 EVs) (NBC/WSJ/Marist, 9/9-11,
n=979 LV)
Obama 49, Romney 46
(PPP, 8/31-9/2,
n=1001 LV)
Virginia (13 EVs)
Obama 49, Romney 44
(NBC/WSJ/Marist, 9/9-11,
n=996 LV)
Missouri (10 EVs)
Arizona (11 EVs)
Obama 43, Romney 50
Obama 44, Romney 53 (Mason-Dixon, 8/22-23,
(PPP, 9/7 – 9/9, n=993 LV) n=625 LV)
Florida (29 EVs)
Obama 49, Romney 44
(NBC/WSJ/Marist, 9/9-11,
n=980 LV)
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12. Intrade also like Obama’s chances at re-election…
Intrade:
Obama Re-Election
63.2%
September 13
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13. … while the Twitter-verse remains unkind to Romney.
Twitter
Political Index
23% - 11%
(September 13th)
Source: election.twitter.com
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14. Paul Ryan’s image is good, but is historically unimportant.
As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of these people: Paul Ryan Paul Ryan
CNN/ORC Poll, conducted August 31 – September 3 2012 n=1,005 adults, MoE = ± 3.4%
Mercury. 14

15. Republicans have ceded their generic ballot advantage…
If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the
Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live? Congressional Ballot
49% - 43%
Reuters/Ipsos Poll, conducted September 7-10, 2012 n=1,089 RVs, MoE = ± 3.1%
Mercury. 15

16. …though they are poised to pick up seats in the Senate…
State of the Senate
Likely DEM Lean DEM Toss-Up Lean GOP Likely GOP
Connecticut Florida Massachusetts Arizona Nebraska
(Open) (Nelson) (Brown) (Open) (Open)
Hawaii Missouri Montana Indiana
(Open) (McCaskill) (Tester) (Open)
Maine New Mexico Nevada North Dakota
(Open) (Open) (Heller) (Open)
Michigan Ohio Virginia
(Stabenow) (Brown) (Open)
Wisconsin
(Open)
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17. …and toss-ups will determine who controls the chamber.
Latest Senate Polling
Wisconsin:
Montana: Thompson (R): 50% Massachusetts:
Baldwin (D): 44%
Rehberg (R): 47%
Tester (D): 43% Brown (R): 49%
Warren (D): 44%
Virginia:
Kaine (D): 46%
Allen (R): 46%
Missouri:
Nevada:
Akin (R): 43%
Heller (R): 47% McCaskill (D): 49%
Berkley (D): 45%
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18. About Twitter’s Political Index
 Twitter introduced a Political Index that
scores all tweets about Barack Obama and
Mitt Romney as “positive”, “negative”, or
“neutral” The number associated with each
candidate represents, on average, the
percentage of tweets about that candidate
that were more positive than all Tweets about
any topic.
 Because the data it analyzes are completely
unprovoked (as compared to a political
survey), we find value in the Index in
measuring the daily “winner” of users’
sentiments; evidence has also shown that
the Index’s measurements for Obama do
correlate with his net approval rating.
 We are unconvinced of its predictive power:
the users of Twitter are not representative of
the national electorate, and positive or
Learn more about the index at
negative tweets do not correlate with votes. elections.twitter.com
The “Twindex” is a prototype in using social media as a metric for
The “Twindex” is a prototype in using social media as a metric for
an election. The world of social media will continue to merge with
an election. The world of social media will continue to merge with
the world of politics and public affairs. Our digital team can help
the world of politics and public affairs. Our digital team can help
you stay on top of and leverage new developments like this to
you stay on top of and leverage new developments like this to
achieve your policy and business goals.
achieve your policy and business goals.
Mercury. 18

19. National Polling Assessment
September 2012
Kieran Mahoney Kirill Goncharenko
CEO President
New York, NY | kmahoney@mercuryllc.com New York, NY | kgoncharenko@mercuryllc.com
Senator James Talent Hon. Fernando Ferrer Hon. Fabian Nunez
Co-Chairman Co-Chairman Partner
Washington, DC| jtalent@mercuryllc.com New York, NY | fferrer@mercuryllc.com Sacramento, CA| fnunez@mercuryllc.com
Hon. Max Sandlin Thomas Doherty Michael McKeon
Co-Chairman Partner Partner
Washington, DC | msandlin@mercuryllc.com Albany, NY | tdoherty@mercuryllc.com New York, NY | mmckeon@mercuryllc.com
Adam Mendelsohn Michael DuHaime Hon. Vin Weber
Partner Partner Partner
Sacramento, CA| amendelsohn@mercuryllc.com Westfield, NJ| mduhaime@mercuryllc.com Washington, DC | vin@cwdc.com
Mercury. 19