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World Energy Outlook 2012
            Presentation to the press
          London, 12 November 2012



                                        © OECD/IEA 2012
The context

     Foundations of global energy system shifting
              Resurgence in oil & gas production in some countries
              Retreat from nuclear in some others
              Signs of increasing policy focus on energy efficiency

     All-time high oil prices acting as brake on global economy
              Divergence in natural gas prices affecting Europe (with prices
                  5-times US levels) and Asia (8-times)

     Symptoms of an unsustainable energy system persist
              Fossil fuel subsidies up almost 30% to $523 billion in 2011, led by MENA
              CO2 emissions at record high, while renewables industry under strain
              Despite new international efforts, 1.3 billion people still lack electricity

© OECD/IEA 2012
Emerging economies steer energy markets

                                    Share of global energy demand
                          6 030 Mtoe         12 380 Mtoe     16 730 Mtoe
             100%                                                                Rest of non-OECD
                                                                                 Non-OECD
                                                                                 Middle East
                  80%
                                                                                 India
                                                                                 China
                  60%
                                                                                 OECD

                  40%


                  20%


                             1975               2010             2035

                    Global energy demand rises by over one-third in the period to 2035,
                   underpinned by rising living standards in China, India & the Middle East
© OECD/IEA 2012
A United States oil & gas transformation

                                 US oil and gas production
       mboe/d 25


                  20
                                                                         Unconventional gas
                  15


                  10                                                     Conventional gas

                                                                         Unconventional oil
                   5

                                                                         Conventional oil

                       1980   1990   2000    2010    2020    2030 2035

                  The surge in unconventional oil & gas production has implications
                                   well beyond the United States
© OECD/IEA 2012
Iraq oil poised for a major expansion

                       Iraq oil production                       Iraq oil exports
              mb/d 9                         North    mb/d 9                        Other
                   8                         Centre        8                        Asia
                   7                         South         7
                   6                                       6
                   5                                       5
                   4                                       4
                   3                                       3
                   2                                       2
                   1                                       1

                       2012   2020   2035                      2012   2020   2035


              Iraq accounts for 45% of the growth in global production to 2035;
      by the 2030s it becomes the second-largest global oil exporter, overtaking Russia
© OECD/IEA 2012
Middle East oil to Asia: a new silk road

                              Middle East oil export by destination
      mb/d 7                                                                      2000
                  6                                                               2011
                                                                                  2035
                  5

                  4

                  3

                  2

                  1


                      China     India    Japan & Korea   Europe   United States

          By 2035, almost 90% of Middle Eastern oil exports go to Asia; North America’s
               emergence as a net exporter accelerates the eastward shift in trade
© OECD/IEA 2012
Natural gas: towards a globalised market

                              Major global gas trade flows, 2010
                                                            2035




           Rising supplies of unconventional gas & LNG help to diversify trade flows,
         putting pressure on conventional gas suppliers & oil-linked pricing mechanisms
© OECD/IEA 2012
Different trends in oil & gas
    import dependency
                          Net oil & gas import dependency in selected countries
                                                                                 Japan
  Gas Imports 100%
                                                                                          2010
                                                                                          2035
                   80%
                                                         European Union
                   60%

                   40%

                   20%                     China
                                                                   India
                                                   United States
                    0%

  Gas Exports 20%
                 20%                 40%           60%               80%           100%
                                                                           Oil imports

                  While dependence on imported oil & gas rises in many countries,
                             the United States swims against the tide
© OECD/IEA 2012
A power shift to emerging economies

                                       Change in power generation, 2010-2035
                              Coal         Gas       Nuclear           Renewables

                  China

                  India

        United States

  European Union

                  Japan

                     -1 000           0      1 000   2 000     3 000       4 000    5 000    6 000
                                     TWh                                                    TWh

    The need for electricity in emerging economies drives a 70% increase in worldwide
          demand, with renewables accounting for half of new global capacity
© OECD/IEA 2012
The multiple benefits of renewables
    come at a cost
                             Global renewable energy subsidies
    Billion $250
                                                                                      Biofuels:
                                                              $1 200 billion
                  $200                                                                  2011-2035


                  $150
                                                                                      Electricity:
                  $100                                                                   2012-2035
                                                  $2 600 billion
                                                                                         Existing capacity

                  $50
                                   $960 billion

                     2011   2015           2020   2025             2030        2035

    Renewable subsidies were $88 billion in 2011; over half the $4.8 trillion required to
     2035 has been committed to existing projects or is needed to meet 2020 targets
© OECD/IEA 2012
Wide variations in the price of power

                                   Average household electricity prices, 2035
cents/kWh 25


                      20

                                                                                          2011
                      15                                                                  OECD average

                      10                                                                  2011
                                                                                          Non-OECD
                       5                                                                  average



                               China       United States   European Union     Japan

                  Electricity prices are set to increase with the highest prices persisting in the
                    European Union & Japan, well above those in China & the United States
© OECD/IEA 2012
Energy is becoming thirstier in the
    face of growing water constraints

                        Global water use            Water for energy
                    100%                                            Biofuels
                                                                    Fossil fuels
                                                          Other
                     80%
                                                          Nuclear
                     60%

                     40%                        Power
                                                           Coal
                     20%
                              Energy

                              2010                         2010

         The energy sector’s water needs are set to grow, making water an increasingly
                important criterion for assessing the viability of energy projects
© OECD/IEA 2012
Energy efficiency: a huge opportunity
    going unrealised
                  Energy efficiency potential used by sector in the New Policies Scenario

                  100%                                                    Unrealised energy
                                                                          efficiency potential
                   80%
                                                                          Realised energy
                                                                          efficiency potential
                   60%

                   40%

                   20%


                         Industry   Transport     Power      Buildings
                                                generation


                    Two-thirds of the economic potential to improve energy efficiency
                                 remains untapped in the period to 2035
© OECD/IEA 2012
The Efficient World Scenario:
    a blueprint for an efficient world
                              Total primary energy demand
       Mtoe 18 000

                                                New Policies            Reduction in 2035
                  17 000
                                                Scenario                Coal     1 350 Mtce
                  16 000                                                Oil      12.7 mb/d
                                                                        Gas       680 bcm
                  15 000
                                                                        Others    250 Mtoe

                  14 000                             Efficient
                                               World Scenario
                  13 000

                  12 000
                       2010    2015   2020   2025     2030       2035

   Economically viable efficiency measures can halve energy demand growth to 2035;
         oil demand savings equal the current production of Russia & Norway
© OECD/IEA 2012
Energy efficiency brings economic gains

                          Energy expenditure in 2035 compared with 2010

   Trillion $1.5                                                          New Policies the
                                                                          Additional in
                                                                          Scenario
                                                                          New Policies
                  $1.2                                                    Scenario

                  $0.9                                                    Efficient World
                                                                          Scenario
                  $0.6

                  $0.3

                    $0

                  -$0.3
                           China     India   European   United    Japan
                                              Union     States

In addition to cutting energy expenditures by an average of 20%, improved efficiency
brings wider economic gains, particularly for India, China, the United States & Europe
© OECD/IEA 2012
The Efficient World Scenario
    delays carbon lock-in
                                2017
                                              2022
     Gt 35

             30
                                                             2 °C trajectory
             25

             20                                                                 Lock-in of infrastructure
                                                                                   Room to manoeuvre
                                                                                in New Policies Scenario
                                                                                   Efficient World Scenario
                                                                                in 2017
                                                                                   2022
             15

             10
                                                                                Lock-in of existing
                  5                                                             infrastructure


                  2011   2015          2020          2025   2030         2035

          Energy efficiency can delay “lock-in” of CO2 emissions permitted under a 2 °C
         trajectory – which is set to happen in 2017 – until 2022, buying five extra years
© OECD/IEA 2012
Foundations of energy system shifting

   Policy makers face critical choices in reconciling energy,
           environmental & economic objectives

   Changing outlook for energy production & use may redefine
           global economic & geopolitical balances

   Iraq set to play a pivotal role in global oil markets

   As climate change slips off policy radar, the “lock-in” point
           moves closer & the costs of inaction rise

   The gains promised by energy efficiency are within reach & are
           essential to underpin a more secure & sustainable energy system

© OECD/IEA 2012

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World Energy Outlook 2012 - Press Presentation

  • 1. World Energy Outlook 2012 Presentation to the press London, 12 November 2012 © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 2. The context  Foundations of global energy system shifting  Resurgence in oil & gas production in some countries  Retreat from nuclear in some others  Signs of increasing policy focus on energy efficiency  All-time high oil prices acting as brake on global economy  Divergence in natural gas prices affecting Europe (with prices 5-times US levels) and Asia (8-times)  Symptoms of an unsustainable energy system persist  Fossil fuel subsidies up almost 30% to $523 billion in 2011, led by MENA  CO2 emissions at record high, while renewables industry under strain  Despite new international efforts, 1.3 billion people still lack electricity © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 3. Emerging economies steer energy markets Share of global energy demand 6 030 Mtoe 12 380 Mtoe 16 730 Mtoe 100% Rest of non-OECD Non-OECD Middle East 80% India China 60% OECD 40% 20% 1975 2010 2035 Global energy demand rises by over one-third in the period to 2035, underpinned by rising living standards in China, India & the Middle East © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 4. A United States oil & gas transformation US oil and gas production mboe/d 25 20 Unconventional gas 15 10 Conventional gas Unconventional oil 5 Conventional oil 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035 The surge in unconventional oil & gas production has implications well beyond the United States © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 5. Iraq oil poised for a major expansion Iraq oil production Iraq oil exports mb/d 9 North mb/d 9 Other 8 Centre 8 Asia 7 South 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 2012 2020 2035 2012 2020 2035 Iraq accounts for 45% of the growth in global production to 2035; by the 2030s it becomes the second-largest global oil exporter, overtaking Russia © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 6. Middle East oil to Asia: a new silk road Middle East oil export by destination mb/d 7 2000 6 2011 2035 5 4 3 2 1 China India Japan & Korea Europe United States By 2035, almost 90% of Middle Eastern oil exports go to Asia; North America’s emergence as a net exporter accelerates the eastward shift in trade © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 7. Natural gas: towards a globalised market Major global gas trade flows, 2010 2035 Rising supplies of unconventional gas & LNG help to diversify trade flows, putting pressure on conventional gas suppliers & oil-linked pricing mechanisms © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 8. Different trends in oil & gas import dependency Net oil & gas import dependency in selected countries Japan Gas Imports 100% 2010 2035 80% European Union 60% 40% 20% China India United States 0% Gas Exports 20% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Oil imports While dependence on imported oil & gas rises in many countries, the United States swims against the tide © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 9. A power shift to emerging economies Change in power generation, 2010-2035 Coal Gas Nuclear Renewables China India United States European Union Japan -1 000 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 TWh TWh The need for electricity in emerging economies drives a 70% increase in worldwide demand, with renewables accounting for half of new global capacity © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 10. The multiple benefits of renewables come at a cost Global renewable energy subsidies Billion $250 Biofuels: $1 200 billion $200 2011-2035 $150 Electricity: $100 2012-2035 $2 600 billion Existing capacity $50 $960 billion 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Renewable subsidies were $88 billion in 2011; over half the $4.8 trillion required to 2035 has been committed to existing projects or is needed to meet 2020 targets © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 11. Wide variations in the price of power Average household electricity prices, 2035 cents/kWh 25 20 2011 15 OECD average 10 2011 Non-OECD 5 average China United States European Union Japan Electricity prices are set to increase with the highest prices persisting in the European Union & Japan, well above those in China & the United States © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 12. Energy is becoming thirstier in the face of growing water constraints Global water use Water for energy 100% Biofuels Fossil fuels Other 80% Nuclear 60% 40% Power Coal 20% Energy 2010 2010 The energy sector’s water needs are set to grow, making water an increasingly important criterion for assessing the viability of energy projects © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 13. Energy efficiency: a huge opportunity going unrealised Energy efficiency potential used by sector in the New Policies Scenario 100% Unrealised energy efficiency potential 80% Realised energy efficiency potential 60% 40% 20% Industry Transport Power Buildings generation Two-thirds of the economic potential to improve energy efficiency remains untapped in the period to 2035 © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 14. The Efficient World Scenario: a blueprint for an efficient world Total primary energy demand Mtoe 18 000 New Policies Reduction in 2035 17 000 Scenario Coal 1 350 Mtce 16 000 Oil 12.7 mb/d Gas 680 bcm 15 000 Others 250 Mtoe 14 000 Efficient World Scenario 13 000 12 000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Economically viable efficiency measures can halve energy demand growth to 2035; oil demand savings equal the current production of Russia & Norway © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 15. Energy efficiency brings economic gains Energy expenditure in 2035 compared with 2010 Trillion $1.5 New Policies the Additional in Scenario New Policies $1.2 Scenario $0.9 Efficient World Scenario $0.6 $0.3 $0 -$0.3 China India European United Japan Union States In addition to cutting energy expenditures by an average of 20%, improved efficiency brings wider economic gains, particularly for India, China, the United States & Europe © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 16. The Efficient World Scenario delays carbon lock-in 2017 2022 Gt 35 30 2 °C trajectory 25 20 Lock-in of infrastructure Room to manoeuvre in New Policies Scenario Efficient World Scenario in 2017 2022 15 10 Lock-in of existing 5 infrastructure 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Energy efficiency can delay “lock-in” of CO2 emissions permitted under a 2 °C trajectory – which is set to happen in 2017 – until 2022, buying five extra years © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 17. Foundations of energy system shifting  Policy makers face critical choices in reconciling energy, environmental & economic objectives  Changing outlook for energy production & use may redefine global economic & geopolitical balances  Iraq set to play a pivotal role in global oil markets  As climate change slips off policy radar, the “lock-in” point moves closer & the costs of inaction rise  The gains promised by energy efficiency are within reach & are essential to underpin a more secure & sustainable energy system © OECD/IEA 2012