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Conselho Nacional de Juventude-Portugal
Ivo Costa Santos - Novembro 2012
                                          1
ICS| 2




  Economy

            Crises of       Democratic
                           crises, youth        Social
            Funding &    participation and
Society                                         Crise
             liquidity   Polítics&policies




              Youth
            employme     What way?           opportunities
               nt
ICS| 3
ICS| 4




Sovereign Debt crisis                 Credit Crisis   Crisis of Credibility

                                                             Grécia     130
                                                             Itália     118
                                                             Irelanda   94
                                                             Portugal   83

                                                             Bélgica 100
                                                             França 84
                                                             Alemanha
                                                                      75
                                                             Austria 70
                                                             Espanha 63



  Fonte: Financial Times [Jan’2011]
ICS| 5




Sovereign Debt crisis                     Credit Crisis   Crisis of Credibility

                                                                 Grécia     165,5
                                                                 Itália     121,0
                                                                 Irelanda   109,2
                                                                 Portugal   101,9

                                                                 Bélgica 94,5
                                                                 França 86,8
                                                                 Alemanha
                                                                          82,6
                                                                 Austria 72,3
                                                                 Espanha 67,4



  Fonte: FMI [World Economic Outlook, Set’2011]
ICS| 6




Sovereign Debt crisis   Credit Crisis   Crisis of Credibility




  Fonte: OCDE
ICS| 7




Sovereign Debt crisis                    Credit Crisis   Crisis of Credibility




  Fonte: Datastream – Thomson Reuters [Jan’2012]
ICS| 8




Sovereign Debt crisis                 Credit Crisis   Crisis of Credibility




  Fonte: Financial Times [Nov’2011]
ICS| 9




Sovereign Debt crisis                     Credit Crisis   Crisis of Credibility




  Fonte: Banco Mundial [timeseries 1960-2010]
ICS| 10




Sovereign Debt crisis                    Credit Crisis   Crisis of Credibility




  Fonte: Datastream e Banco Central Europeu
ICS| 11




Sovereign Debt crisis               Credit Crisis        Crisis of Credibility




                                                    A     proof   of
                                                    distrust in the
                                                    European
                                                    Economy       is
                                                    embodied in the
                                                    aversion      of
                                                    foreign
                                                    investment



  Fonte: The Economist, 26Nov2011
ICS| 12




Fonte: The Economist, 26Nov2011
ICS| 13




Fonte: The Economist, 26Nov2011
ICS| 14




  Economy
                         Democratic
            Crises of    crises, youth
                         participation     Social
            Funding &    and
Society                                    Crise
             liquidity   Polítics&polici
                         es
ICS| 15




   ‘Takeoverof the
                             'People's Voice'
      markets’




Papandre     Berlusconi   Sócrates      Zapatero
   u




Papademo       Monti      Passos         Rajoy
    s                     Coelho
ICS| 16




In: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/pdf/eurobarometre/28_07/FR_EN.pdf
ICS| 17




Fonte: The Economist, 26Nov2011
ICS| 18
ICS| 19




Fonte: OCDE
ICS| 20




                                 To solve the economic
                                 problem, is urgent lower the
                                 debt (and collaterally reduce
                                 domestic demand by cutting
                                 spending and rising taxes).




Fonte: FMI Country Report 2011
ICS| 21
ICS| 22




… And if Christine Lagarde was a young
            unemployed ?
ICS| 23




… or Durao Barroso was a young unemployed ?
ICS| 24




  Economy
                         Democratic
            Crises of
            Funding &
                         crises, youth
                         participation     Social
                         and
Society      liquidity   Polítics&polici   Crise
                         es
ICS| 25
ICS| 26
ICS| 27
ICS| 28
ICS| 29
ICS| 30
ICS| 31




Social exclusions cost us according to some estimates
over 100billion   euros every year.
And this number is just for the EU Member States. It is an
extremely big problem for our generation and negative
circular effects of the problem such as mental health
problems are going to cost us dearly.
ICS| 32




  Economy


              What                  Opportunitie
Society     solutions
                        What way?       s
ICS| 33




               GENERATIONA
                                                The public debt must be generationally sustainable
                    L
                  CRISIS                        Fiscal austerity may be a necessary but not
                                                sufficient element

                                                There are limits to austerity


                                                These limits are the breakeven point for growth
                                Social crisis
                                                Growth is the key to sustainability

                              Crisis and
                              Democratic        International competitiveness is a growth factor?
                              Politics
                                                The Euro is part of the solution and not the
                                                problem

                        Crisis of               the ECB has limited action because this crisis
                        Credibility             should not directly fund the states without limit

                                                The European solidarity is the solution
              Credit Crisis                     Eurobonds?!

                                                What cooperation between euro-africa can we
                                                improve?
Sovereign
Debt crisis
ICS| 34




                                                          Mobility
                                                        programs to
                                                       improve trade
                                                      market for youth


  internships                        Erasmus Export




                  entrepreneurship



New youth labor                                                                More
  contracts                                                              intergenerational
                                                                             solidarity
ICS| 35
ICS| 36




1st . It will be a clear need to identify a strategy for economic growth and
development that will enable the economy to find areas of investment leading to a
renewal of the national productive apparatus.

2nd . It is necessary to redefine an array of cooperation between civil society -
the state - and financial/private agents, demanding for social responsibility in
crisis time, to reform financing mechanisms, requiring a system restore confidence
and credibility finance and business, as citizens did when it was necessary to use
public funds on bank recapitalization.

3rd . The youth employment is only one dimension, often instrumental in the lives
of young people. The real need for this, relates to the possibility of developing a
sustainable living project, with future prospects. For this it is necessary to identify
mechanisms of social sharing of risk, based on concepts of social
innovation to rethink social security devices, illness protection, promotion of
family, individual achievement and the pursuit of happiness for every young
person.
ICS| 37




4th. Setting a ceiling for pensions, following such a measure with a restructuring
of the social security system, linking it to pension funds;

5th. Need to identify areas of national investment, with exclusive lines of
support to young - redefining the concept of strategic industry nationally, aimed
at job creation;

6th. Restructuring the network of higher education, bringing it closer to the
framework of strategic national and inter-regional development to adopt

7th. Debate a new model of employment contracts for young
people, replacing the current reality of precariousness , with drastic reduction of
social contributions made.
ICS| 38




a) Develop mechanisms for positive discrimination to tax companies that encourage
youth employment and investing in research and development

b) creation of incentive programs for youth employment through paid internships

c) Creating incentives ace SMEs, particularly related to primary and secondary sectors, to
reduce production costs;

d) Increase surveillance job insecurity and labor right’ s abuse

e) Promote the evaluation and monitoring of the implementation of employment promotion
programs in the framework of dissemination, monitoring and information

f) Creation of a credit line for SMEs and Micro-enterprises whose capital is held mostly
by young until the age of thirty.

g) Establishing mechanisms for risk capital for SMEs and Micro-enterprises whose capital is
held mostly by young until the age of thirty.

h) Creation of "Valley Entrepreneur", with support for up to thirty thousand euros, with 75%
of capital drown lost.
ICS| 39




The priorities of young people have changed dramatically in this time of global crisis that
threw the world economy into the recession.

The youth is suffer most from all this, are who see their social rights being stomped on, and
his future mortgaged, rejected their aspirations and see their jobs destroyed.

The priorities of life of young people are the future, and how to build a new one according to
their dreams in a continuous improvement of their living conditions.

For all of this, is fundamental redefine the priorities of youth.

These priorities are the living conditions of young people and these tend to be discussed
between the governments and the social partners.

Social partners, however, represent only those who are part of a formal economy, already
existing and safeguard the rights acquired and no rights of the consecration of the new
generations.

Young people should participate in dialogues as well complain of
social partners, governments, unions and employers in a collective
response to the maintenance of social cohesion and progress and
economic and social development.
ICS| 40




Dream and
 Believe!
Ivo Costa Santos
Ivo.Santos@CNJ.pt
November 2012


                    41

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AEYP_ Economy, crisis and youth

  • 1. Conselho Nacional de Juventude-Portugal Ivo Costa Santos - Novembro 2012 1
  • 2. ICS| 2 Economy Crises of Democratic crises, youth Social Funding & participation and Society Crise liquidity Polítics&policies Youth employme What way? opportunities nt
  • 4. ICS| 4 Sovereign Debt crisis Credit Crisis Crisis of Credibility Grécia 130 Itália 118 Irelanda 94 Portugal 83 Bélgica 100 França 84 Alemanha 75 Austria 70 Espanha 63 Fonte: Financial Times [Jan’2011]
  • 5. ICS| 5 Sovereign Debt crisis Credit Crisis Crisis of Credibility Grécia 165,5 Itália 121,0 Irelanda 109,2 Portugal 101,9 Bélgica 94,5 França 86,8 Alemanha 82,6 Austria 72,3 Espanha 67,4 Fonte: FMI [World Economic Outlook, Set’2011]
  • 6. ICS| 6 Sovereign Debt crisis Credit Crisis Crisis of Credibility Fonte: OCDE
  • 7. ICS| 7 Sovereign Debt crisis Credit Crisis Crisis of Credibility Fonte: Datastream – Thomson Reuters [Jan’2012]
  • 8. ICS| 8 Sovereign Debt crisis Credit Crisis Crisis of Credibility Fonte: Financial Times [Nov’2011]
  • 9. ICS| 9 Sovereign Debt crisis Credit Crisis Crisis of Credibility Fonte: Banco Mundial [timeseries 1960-2010]
  • 10. ICS| 10 Sovereign Debt crisis Credit Crisis Crisis of Credibility Fonte: Datastream e Banco Central Europeu
  • 11. ICS| 11 Sovereign Debt crisis Credit Crisis Crisis of Credibility A proof of distrust in the European Economy is embodied in the aversion of foreign investment Fonte: The Economist, 26Nov2011
  • 12. ICS| 12 Fonte: The Economist, 26Nov2011
  • 13. ICS| 13 Fonte: The Economist, 26Nov2011
  • 14. ICS| 14 Economy Democratic Crises of crises, youth participation Social Funding & and Society Crise liquidity Polítics&polici es
  • 15. ICS| 15 ‘Takeoverof the 'People's Voice' markets’ Papandre Berlusconi Sócrates Zapatero u Papademo Monti Passos Rajoy s Coelho
  • 17. ICS| 17 Fonte: The Economist, 26Nov2011
  • 20. ICS| 20 To solve the economic problem, is urgent lower the debt (and collaterally reduce domestic demand by cutting spending and rising taxes). Fonte: FMI Country Report 2011
  • 22. ICS| 22 … And if Christine Lagarde was a young unemployed ?
  • 23. ICS| 23 … or Durao Barroso was a young unemployed ?
  • 24. ICS| 24 Economy Democratic Crises of Funding & crises, youth participation Social and Society liquidity Polítics&polici Crise es
  • 31. ICS| 31 Social exclusions cost us according to some estimates over 100billion euros every year. And this number is just for the EU Member States. It is an extremely big problem for our generation and negative circular effects of the problem such as mental health problems are going to cost us dearly.
  • 32. ICS| 32 Economy What Opportunitie Society solutions What way? s
  • 33. ICS| 33 GENERATIONA The public debt must be generationally sustainable L CRISIS Fiscal austerity may be a necessary but not sufficient element There are limits to austerity These limits are the breakeven point for growth Social crisis Growth is the key to sustainability Crisis and Democratic International competitiveness is a growth factor? Politics The Euro is part of the solution and not the problem Crisis of the ECB has limited action because this crisis Credibility should not directly fund the states without limit The European solidarity is the solution Credit Crisis Eurobonds?! What cooperation between euro-africa can we improve? Sovereign Debt crisis
  • 34. ICS| 34 Mobility programs to improve trade market for youth internships Erasmus Export entrepreneurship New youth labor More contracts intergenerational solidarity
  • 36. ICS| 36 1st . It will be a clear need to identify a strategy for economic growth and development that will enable the economy to find areas of investment leading to a renewal of the national productive apparatus. 2nd . It is necessary to redefine an array of cooperation between civil society - the state - and financial/private agents, demanding for social responsibility in crisis time, to reform financing mechanisms, requiring a system restore confidence and credibility finance and business, as citizens did when it was necessary to use public funds on bank recapitalization. 3rd . The youth employment is only one dimension, often instrumental in the lives of young people. The real need for this, relates to the possibility of developing a sustainable living project, with future prospects. For this it is necessary to identify mechanisms of social sharing of risk, based on concepts of social innovation to rethink social security devices, illness protection, promotion of family, individual achievement and the pursuit of happiness for every young person.
  • 37. ICS| 37 4th. Setting a ceiling for pensions, following such a measure with a restructuring of the social security system, linking it to pension funds; 5th. Need to identify areas of national investment, with exclusive lines of support to young - redefining the concept of strategic industry nationally, aimed at job creation; 6th. Restructuring the network of higher education, bringing it closer to the framework of strategic national and inter-regional development to adopt 7th. Debate a new model of employment contracts for young people, replacing the current reality of precariousness , with drastic reduction of social contributions made.
  • 38. ICS| 38 a) Develop mechanisms for positive discrimination to tax companies that encourage youth employment and investing in research and development b) creation of incentive programs for youth employment through paid internships c) Creating incentives ace SMEs, particularly related to primary and secondary sectors, to reduce production costs; d) Increase surveillance job insecurity and labor right’ s abuse e) Promote the evaluation and monitoring of the implementation of employment promotion programs in the framework of dissemination, monitoring and information f) Creation of a credit line for SMEs and Micro-enterprises whose capital is held mostly by young until the age of thirty. g) Establishing mechanisms for risk capital for SMEs and Micro-enterprises whose capital is held mostly by young until the age of thirty. h) Creation of "Valley Entrepreneur", with support for up to thirty thousand euros, with 75% of capital drown lost.
  • 39. ICS| 39 The priorities of young people have changed dramatically in this time of global crisis that threw the world economy into the recession. The youth is suffer most from all this, are who see their social rights being stomped on, and his future mortgaged, rejected their aspirations and see their jobs destroyed. The priorities of life of young people are the future, and how to build a new one according to their dreams in a continuous improvement of their living conditions. For all of this, is fundamental redefine the priorities of youth. These priorities are the living conditions of young people and these tend to be discussed between the governments and the social partners. Social partners, however, represent only those who are part of a formal economy, already existing and safeguard the rights acquired and no rights of the consecration of the new generations. Young people should participate in dialogues as well complain of social partners, governments, unions and employers in a collective response to the maintenance of social cohesion and progress and economic and social development.
  • 40. ICS| 40 Dream and Believe!