Bruce Yandle's Economic Situation Report, June 2013
1.
2.
3.
4. The 2013 Economy at Mid-Year
• Operating with one lane closed.
• Running on borrowed fuel.
• Still getting there, for some sectors.
• Looking for prosperity.
• Public Choice, the IRS, Antitrust & FEMA.
Capitol Hill Campus
June 21, 2013
6. U.S. Report Card
Decade Real Per Capita GDP Growth
Annualized
1951-1960 1.25%
1961-1970 3.14
1971-1980 2.11
1981-1990 2.36
1991-2000 2.58
2001-2010 0.66
2001-2007 1.59
Average, 1951-2010 1.89%
Lawrence H. Officer and Samuel H. Williamson
"Annualized Growth Rate and Graphs of Various Historical Economic Series," MeasuringWorth, 2011.
URL: www.measuringworth.com/growth/ Accessed 03/22/12.
14. May 31, 2013, 12:39 p.m. EDT
Social Security trust fund to run dry in 2033
Medicare finances improve modestly; Lew
urges long-term fix
MarketWatch. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/social-security-trust-
fund-to-run-dry-in-2033-2013-05-31
Federal disability trust fund on the brink
By Tami Luhby @Luhby May 30, 2013: 5:42 AM ET
40. ECONOMICS MEETS POLITICS
The Analysis is called
PUBLIC CHOICE
POLITICAL ECONOMY
or
“Politics without Romance”
James M. Buchanan, Nobel Laureate
We seek to explain the way the world works, not the way we
might wish it worked.
41.
42. In the Rubble of Disasters, Politicians Find Economic Incentives
Molly D. Caselao and Thomas A. Garrett. The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July
2003, 10-13.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) spent nearly $22
billion on disaster relief between 1991 and 1999. Sometimes, aid
disbursement is not motivated by need, however…
Researchers tested whether the electoral importance of a state and
whether it was an election year motivated presidential disaster
declarations in a state. In order to isolate the political impacts of
disaster declaration and relief, the researchers controlled fro disaster
size, private insurance disaster payments, state population, and other
state effects.
The studies found that those states with a higher measure of political
importance had a higher rate of presidential disaster declaration. The
studies also found that the mean rate of disaster declaration was
higher in election years compared to nonelection years.
Researchers concluded that for each legislator a state had on a FEMA
oversight committee, the state received an additional $31 million in
disaster each year. The researchers calculated that nearly 45 percent
of all FEMA disaster payments were motivated by political incentives
rather than by need.