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Market overview and traffic forecast analysis
- 1. Market overview Michael Davies Customer Business
- 2. Overview Latest traffic statistics US airline yields and costs Capacity reductions Outlook for traffic Key issues & uncertainties Aircraft delivery forecasts Discussion
- 3. 2001-02 passenger traffic growth RPKs – key markets -40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%Jan Feb M ar A pr M ay Jun Jul A ug Sep O ct N ov D ec Jan Feb M ar A pr M ay June US domestic Transatlantic Europe Intra
- 5. US airlines’ 2001-02 traffic Transpacific passenger & total international cargo -45% -35% -25% -15% -5% 5% 15% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Transpacific Pax. International Cargo
- 6. North American domestic traffic 2001-02 -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Continental American Delta Southwest AirTran AMR Eagle Continental Express Majors Low Cost/ Regionals
- 7. October 2001 passenger load factor Change vs. Oct 2000 58% 62% 66% 70% 74% 78% 82% British AW KLM AirFrance Am erican Delta Continental Northw est Cathay Oct 2000
- 8. 58% 62% 66% 70% 74% 78% 82% British AW KLM AirFrance Am erican Delta Continental Northw est Cathay May 2002 passenger load factor Change vs. May 2001 May 2001
- 9. 58% 62% 66% 70% 74% 78% 82% British AW KLM AirFrance Am erican Delta Continental Northw est Cathay June 2002 passenger load factor Change vs. Jun 2001 Jun 2001
- 10. Key Rolls-Royce customers’ traffic change -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun British Airways American Cathay Singapore Emirates
- 11. US domestic yields – absolute levels 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M 2000 2001 US¢ Yields : c/RPM Revenues : c/ASM Source : Air Transport Association 2002
- 12. US airlines’ costs up, revenues down -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J 1999 2000 2001 2002 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 Unit costs Operating profit ($bn) Unit revenues Change (year-on-year) Profit ($bn)
- 13. Airline net profits -$10,000 -$5,000 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Variation of reported 2001 final figures with year 2000 figures $m
- 14. 106 108 110 112 114 116 118 120 Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep O ct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun US UK Economic leading indicators 2001-2002 Source : Conference Board, composite leading indices Decline Aug-Oct Recovery since Dec
- 15. GDP growth forecasts for 2002 -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% USA Japan Germany UK France China Aug-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Source : Consensus Forecasts Sharp upturn in June forecast
- 16. Industry monitor – June 2002 GDP Pax. traffic L.F. Profits Orders Deliveries Composite leading inds. (Indiv.countries) Asia Pacific Europe Middle EastNorth Asia N.America Cargo traffic
- 17. Stored aircraft – monthly totals Inc.freighters 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 Noofaircraft Regional Jets Widebody Narrowbody
- 18. Stored aircraft – monthly totals Rolls-Royce only Inc.freighters 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450A ug Sep O ct N ov D ec Jan Feb M ar A pr M ay Forecast
- 19. Aircraft available for sale or lease Source : Airline Monitor/BACK 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Jan-99 Apr Jul Oct Jan-00 Apr Jul Oct Jan-01 Apr Jul Oct Jan-02 Apr New WB New NB Old WB Old NB
- 20. Stored aircraft summary : by engine mfr 213 711 240 1178 379 1222 478 2115 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 R-R P&W GE Total August May Includes Reg Jets) IAE split 50/50 PW/R-R Total also includes 14/36 Honeywell Inc.freighters
- 21. Stored aircraft summary : by aircraft category 732 1480 384 511 62 124 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 August May Regional Jet Widebody Narrowbody Inc.freighters
- 22. Stored aircraft summary : by age band 37 51 65 122 261 642 158 120 243 254 522 753 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25+ August March Inc.freighters e.g. 0-5 = 1997-2001 build
- 23. Incremental stored aircraft since Aug 2001 by age band 0 50 100 150 200 250 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25+ R-R P&W GE Likely to return to service Not likely to return to service Age Inc.freighters
- 24. Schedule reductions by airline Nov 2001 actual vs planned -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% SR EI VS AZ LH IB BA KL AF UA TZ AA NW AC DL WN CX KE SQ CI MH JL QF GF EK Middle Eastern N.American Asian EuropeanTotal world schedule -10.2% -parked aircraft -5% -reduced flying -5%
- 25. Schedule reductions by airline May 2001 vs May 2002, source OAG Feb 2002 -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% SR EI KL VS BA IB LH AF AZ UA NW AA DL AC WN TZ MH CX JL QF KE CI SQ GF EK Middle East Asia North America Europe Total world schedule -7.5% Lufthansa – decide in next 2 weeks how much to add back – lifted hiring freeze Air France – stable capacity Austrian – adding, but will remain 5% below 2001 KLM – cutting 5% from summer 2001 Thomas Cook – reviewing planned cuts for summer
- 26. Schedule reductions by airline Aug 2002 vs Aug 2001, source OAG June 2002 -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% EI KL VS BA IB LH AF AZ UA NW AA DL AC WN TZ MH CX JL QF KE CI SQ GF EK Middle East Asia North America Europe Total world schedule -7.0%
- 27. Monthly traffic forecast - US domestic -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Mar- 01 Apr- 01 May- 01 Jun- 01 Jul- 01 Aug- 01 Sep- 01 Oct- 01 Nov- 01 Dec- 01 Jan- 02 Feb- 02 Mar- 02 Apr- 02 May- 02 Jun- 02 Jul- 02 Aug- 02 Sep- 02 Oct- 02 Nov- 02 Dec- 02 Jan- 03 Feb- 03 Mar- 03 Apr- 03 May- 03 Jun- 03 Forecast RPKs Actual RPKs Gulf War (ATA RPKs) Growth over 2000 Jul90 Mar91 RPKs ASKs 2001 : -6.8% -4.3% 2002 : -1.2% -1.6% 2003 : +12.8% +11.3%
- 28. Monthly traffic forecast – North Atlantic -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Mar- 01 Apr- 01 May- 01 Jun- 01 Jul- 01 Aug- 01 Sep- 01 Oct- 01 Nov- 01 Dec- 01 Jan- 02 Feb- 02 Mar- 02 Apr- 02 May- 02 Jun- 02 Jul- 02 Aug- 02 Sep- 02 Oct- 02 Nov- 02 Dec- 02 Jan- 03 Feb- 03 Mar- 03 Apr- 03 May- 03 Jun- 03 Forecast RPKs Actual RPKs Gulf War (AEA+DoT RPKs) Growth over 2000 Jul 90 Feb 91 Oct 91 RPKs ASKs 2001 : -10.1% -3.2% 2002 : +0.3% -0.6% 2003 : +17.9% +14.6%
- 29. Monthly traffic forecast – Europe-Asia -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Mar- 01 Apr- 01 May- 01 Jun- 01 Jul- 01 Aug- 01 Sep- 01 Oct- 01 Nov- 01 Dec- 01 Jan- 02 Feb- 02 Mar- 02 Apr- 02 May- 02 Jun- 02 Jul- 02 Aug- 02 Sep- 02 Oct- 02 Nov- 02 Dec- 02 Jan- 03 Feb- 03 Mar- 03 Apr- 03 May- 03 Jun- 03 Forecast RPKs Actual AEA RPKs Gulf War (AEA - RPKs) Growth over 2000 Jul90 Feb91 RPKs ASKs 2001 : -6.6% -3.8% 2002 : +0.2% -0.7% 2003 : +14.1% +12.1%
- 30. Monthly traffic forecast – Intra Europe (sched) -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Mar- 01 Apr- 01 May- 01 Jun- 01 Jul- 01 Aug- 01 Sep- 01 Oct- 01 Nov- 01 Dec- 01 Jan- 02 Feb- 02 Mar- 02 Apr- 02 May- 02 Jun- 02 Jul- 02 Aug- 02 Sep- 02 Oct- 02 Nov- 02 Dec- 02 Jan- 03 Feb- 03 Mar- 03 Apr- 03 May- 03 Jun- 03 Forecast RPKs Actual RPKs Gulf War (AEA - RPKs) Growth over 2000 Jul90 Feb91 RPKs ASKs 2001 : +0.6% +3.4% 2002 : +4.6% +0.6% 2003 : +7.1% +5.8%
- 31. Rolls-Royce N.America traffic & GDP forecast 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Nov 00 GDP Nov 01 GDP Nov 00 RPKs Nov 01 RPKs 2001 -7% 2002 -1% Index (2000=100) 2003 +14%
- 32. Rolls-Royce European traffic & GDP forecast 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Nov 00 GDP Nov 01 GDP Nov 00 RPKs Nov 01 RPKs 2001 -2% 2002 -0% Index (2000=100) 2003 +12%
- 33. Rolls-Royce Asian traffic & GDP forecast 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Nov 00 GDP Nov 01 GDP Nov 00 RPKs Nov 01 RPKs 2001 -1% 2002 +3% Index (2000=100) 2003 +11%
- 34. Rolls-Royce world traffic forecast (RPKs) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Nov-00 Nov-01 History 1983 forecast 1991 forecast 1989 forecast 1993 forecast 1996 forecast 1999 forecast RPKs (bn)
- 35. Rolls-Royce world traffic & GDP forecast 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Nov 00 GDP Nov 01 GDP Nov 00 RPKs Nov 01 RPKs 2003 +12% 1991 –3% 2001 –4% 2002 +0% Index (1990=100)
- 36. ‘Airline Monitor’ world traffic forecast (RPKs) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Jul-01 Oct-01 History Trend 10% Traffic rebound in 2003 1991 –3% 2001 –6% 2002 +2% RPKs (bn) Forecast made in October 2001 Reviewed in Jan – no change as yet
- 37. ‘Aviation Strategy’ world traffic forecast (RPKs) 2000 RPKs based on Airline Monitor data for reference 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Jul-01 Oct-01 Feb-02 History Trend 14% Traffic rebound in 2003 (vs 17% previously) 1991 –3% 2001 –5% (-6% originally forecast) 2002 -1% (vs –5%) RPKs (bn) Forecast made in October 2001 Reviewed in Feb – less severe
- 38. 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Pre Sep-11th Current 'high' Current 'mid' Current 'low' Gulf War Traffic growth scenarios 2002 2003 2004 High +6% +8% 8% Mid +0% +12% 8% Low -1% +10% 8% RPK Index (2000=100)
- 39. Regional traffic summary Near-term growth Long-term levels 2001 2002 2003 2010 traffic level Europe -2% -0% +12% 97% of previous forecast N.America -7% -1% +14% 96% of previous forecast Asia/Pacific -1% +3% +11% 92% of previous forecast WORLD -4% +0% +12% 95% of previous forecast
- 40. 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 High case Mid point Low case Airline Monitor Aircraft delivery forecasts 2001-2005 Panel of industry forecasters – Dec 2001
- 41. 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 High Average Low Airline Monitor Aircraft delivery forecasts 2001-2005 80+ seat aircraft Latest analyst views (Boeing+Airbus) : Morgan Stanley : 2003 = 555, 2004 = 660 JPMorgan : 2003 = 530, 2004 = 540, 2005 = 625 CSFB : 2003 = 553
- 42. 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Mar-01 Feb-02 Aircraft delivery forecasts 2001-2005 Rolls-Royce forecast (100+ seat pax aircraft) 871 deliveries removed
- 43. Fleet evolution – ‘mid’ traffic scenario 100+ seater passenger aircraft 10000 10500 11000 11500 12000 12500 13000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 End year In service fleet New deliveries Retirements/into store Return from store c500 aircraft ‘retired’ early (I.e. assumed not to return) Fleet required to match traffic growth (@ constant prod’y)
- 44. Fleet evolution – 3 traffic scenarios 100+ seater passenger aircraft 10000 10500 11000 11500 12000 12500 13000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 End year In service fleet New deliveries Retirements/into store Return from store c500 aircraft ‘retired’ early (I.e. assumed not to return) 1998 1999 1999 & 2000 saw significant Load factor & utilisation growth Fleet required to match traffic growth (@ constant prod’y) Airline net profit $8.2bn $8.5bn $4.7bn -$12.0bn -$8bn?* -$0.5bn?* $3.5bn?* Load factor 69.3% 69.8% 72.4% 69.1% 70.5% 72.0% 72.5% * Airline Monitor estimates 2002 updated May ‘02
- 45. Aircraft delivery forecasts Passenger aircraft only 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 717 737 A320 757 767 A330 A340 777 747 A380 2001-10 2002-11