Montana state and U.S. economic outlook. Presented by Dr. Patrick Barkey, director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the University of Montana. Economic Outlook Seminars 2011.
2. Short‐Term Optimism,
Long‐Term Concerns
Short‐Term Long‐Term
• Robust growth in • Stimulus hangover
emerging economies • Tax increases ahead
• Corporate profits • Solvency of states
strong, spending • Financial regulation:
awakening did we get it right?
• More tax stimulus
• Consumer debt
stabilizing
3. Divergent Growth,
Divergent Policies
Slow growth coming out of recession
New tax stimulus, aggressive U.S.
Fed action
On the brink of a second financial crisis due to
default risks of Greece and other countries
Europe Immediate and painful fiscal
contractions underway
Fast growth, rising inflation,
appreciating currencies Emerging
Higher interest rates and Economies
active currency intervention
4. Manufacturing Growth Since 2000
in Emerging Regions
Non‐Japan Asia
Central and
Eastern E.U.
Latin America
Advanced
Indices of Industrial Production, 2000 = 100
Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
6. The U.S. Outlook
for 2011
• Depreciating dollar, faster growth abroad will
boost exports
• Temporary cut in payroll taxes, extension of
depreciation incentives gives an extra push
• Inflation is a non‐problem
• 3 percent growth will finally chip away at
unemployment
• Risks to forecast are now more balanced
• Optimism fades beyond 2013
9. Percent Growth in Wage and Salary
Disbursements by Industry
Total Nonfarm Construction Manufacturing
‐0.2%
‐5.5%
‐13.1%
2009 2010 2009 2010 2009 2010
101.6% 75.7% 84.2%
of 2007 4th of 2007 4th of 2007 4th
Quarter Level Quarter Level Quarter Level
19. Strong Job Growth in Most Sectors
Employment (Number of People), 2001‐2009
Support Activities
for Oil & Gas
Petroleum Refining
Coal Mining
Drilling Oil & Gas Wells
Pipeline Transportation