I presented seminar on Delphi method in my 4th semester of MLISc,

1. DELPHI METHOD Muruli N. MLISc University of Mysore Mysore.

2. INTRODUCTION: The Delphi method is a structured communication technique, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts. The experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the experts’ forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel. It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer. Finally, the process is stopped after a pre-defined stop criterion (e.g. number of rounds, achievement of consensus, stability of results) and the mean or median scores of the final rounds determine the results

3. Delphi method have been designed for normative and explorative use, particularly in the area of social policy and public health.In Europe, more recent web-based experiments have used the Delphi method as a communication technique for interactive decision-making and e-democracy. Mini-Delphi or Estimate-Talk-Estimate (ETE) Delphi is based on the principle that forecasts (or decisions) from a structured group of individuals are more accurate than those from unstructured groups.This has been indicated with the term "collective intelligence". The technique can also be adapted for use in face-to-face meetings, and is then called mini-Delphi or Estimate-Talk-Estimate (ETE).

4. Delphi defined as…. An “organized method” for collecting views and information pertaining to a specific area; A method that allows dialogue between geographically separated experts while serving an effective means for learning; Gathering a group of experts to forecast events and assess complex issues; Collective human intelligence; A process of exploring… assessing… and evaluating.

5. HISTORY: The name "Delphi" derives from the Oracle of Delphi The Delphi method was developed at the beginning of the Cold War to forecast the impact of technology on warfare. In 1944, General Henry H. Arnold ordered the creation of the report for the U.S. Army Air Corps on the future technological capabilities that might be used by the military. Different approaches were tried, but the shortcomings of traditional forecasting methods, such as theoretical approach, quantitative models or trend extrapolation, in areas where precise scientific laws have not been established yet, quickly became apparent. To cross these shortcomings, the Delphi method was developed by Project RAND during the 1950-1960s (1959) by Olaf Helmet, Norman Dalkey, and Nicholas Rescher.

6. Key characteristics of the Delphi method The following key characteristics of the Delphi method help the participants to focus on the issues at hand and separate Delphi from other methodologies: Structuring of information flow The initial contributions from the experts are collected in the form of answers to questionnaires and their comments to these answers. The panel director controls the interactions among the participants by processing the information and filtering out irrelevant content. This avoids the negative effects of face-to-face panel discussions and solves the usual problems of group dynamics.

7. Regular feedback Participants comment on their own forecasts, the responses of others and on the progress of the panel as a whole. At any moment they can revise their earlier statements. While in regular group meetings participants tend to stick to previously stated opinions and often conform too much to group leader, the Delphi method prevents it. Anonymity of the participants Usually all participants remain anonymous. Their identity is not revealed, even after the completion of the final report. This prevents the authority, personality, or reputation of some participants from dominating others in the process. Arguably, it also frees participants (to some extent) from their personal biases, minimizes the "bandwagon effect" or "halo effect", allows free expression of opinions, encourages open critique, and facilitates admission of errors when revising earlier judgments.

8. Role of the facilitator The person coordinating the Delphi method can be known as a facilitator, and facilitates the responses of their panel of experts, who are selected for a reason, usually that they hold knowledge on an opinion or view. The facilitator sends out questionnaires, surveys etc. and if the panel of experts accept, they follow instructions and present their views. Responses are collected and analyzed, then common and conflicting viewpoints are identified. If consensus is not reached, the process continues through thesis and antithesis, to gradually work towards synthesis, and building consensus.

9. Applications of the Delphi method First applications of the Delphi method were in the field of science and technology forecasting. The objective of the method was to combine expert opinions on likelihood and expected development time, of the particular technology, in a single indicator. Later the Delphi method was applied in other areas, especially those related to public policy issues, such as economic trends, health and education. It was also applied successfully and with high accuracy in business forecasting. The Delphi method has also been used as a tool to implement multi-stakeholder approaches for participative policy-making in developing countries.

10. Delphi..when it is appropriate ? In situations where there is no clear-cut resolution of a given policy issue; When time & cost constraints make frequent face-to-face meetings difficult to arrange. When the heterogeneity of the participants must be preserved and anonymity assured. Use it to explore an issue with a distributed group of people. Use it move a group of people towards consensus.

11. HOW TO USE IT: Define the problem Give everyone the problem Collate the responses Give everyone the collection Repeat as necessary

12. Define the problem: Identify the problem that you want to work on, writing it down in a clear way that is easy to understand. This can be in various forms , form a questionnaire to a broad and open question. You can work on one problem and you can work on several problems at once. The constraint is usually the bandwidth and expertise of the people in the Delphi group. Give everyone the problem: Recruit people to the Delphi group. This includes anyone who has been selected to contribute thinking on this project. There is seldom a meeting needed for Delphi work, making it ideal for virtual teams. Delphi thinking can be done with a small group and it can be done with hundreds of people. Around 20 people is fairly common size Send the problem or problems to everyone who is in the group and ask them respond, You will have to handle a lot of feedback, so asking for short bullet-points will make things much easier to deal with than rambling text.

13. Collate the responses: Take the responses that people send back to you and collate these into a single anonyms list of sets of list. Make this as easy as possible for the people to read when you send it back out again, but be aware of casing inappropriate bias. For example you may group responses into appropriate headings, but with the caution that this might presuppose particular thinking. On the other hand, if you are seeking creative ideas you may deliberately mix up the answers. Give everyone the collation: Send the collation back out to everyone with the request to score each item on a given scale. You may also allow them to add further items as appropriate. Remember to include the original problem at the top of the page, along with instructions on what to do. You can also make responding easier by putting the items in a table with space for the score.

14. Repeat as necessary: The process may now be repeated as many times as is deemed appropriate. If your are seeking consensus and there was a wide range of responses, then this may require several iterations. In particular at least a second round to see how others have scored can be very useful.

15. Advantages.. Opportunities for large number of people to participate; Focus is on “ideas” rather than “individuals”; Anonymity for participants which make contributions of ideas a safe activity; Opportunities for participants to reconsider their opinions; Allows for identification of priorities.

16. Limitations… Large amount of time to conduct several rounds; The complexity of data analysis; The difficulty of maintaining participant enthusiasm throughout process; The problem of keeping statements value free and clearly defined; Self reporting data is subject to respondent’s biases and memories;

17. Conti… The bandwagon effect of a majority opinion; The power of persuasion or prestigious individuals to shape group opinion; The vulnerability of group dynamics to manipulation; The unwillingness of individuals to abandon publicly stated positions.

18. During last ten years, the Delphi method was used more often especially for national science and technology foresight. Some modifications and methodological improvements have been made, mean while. Nevertheless, one has to be aware of the strengths and weakness of the method so that it cannot be applied in every case. Delphi method is better to use as additional method to other research methods.

19. References... Adler, M. & Ziglio, E. (Eds.) (1996). Gazing into the Oracle: The Delphi Method and its Application to Social Policy and Public Health. Jessica Kingsley Publishers. Bramante, A.C. (1988). Establishing a Basis for the Development of an Undergraduate Curriculum in Recreation and Leisure Studies in Brazil: A Delphi Approach. A thesis submitted for partial fulfillment for Ph.D. degree. Pennsylvania State University. Raskin, M.S. (1994). The Delphi Study in Field Instruction Revisited: Expert Consensus on Issues and Research Priorities. Journal of Social Work Education. V30 n1 pp 75-89.

20. ANY QUESTIONS…

21. THANK YOU