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ARCHITECTING THE NEXT CREWED
    MISSIONS TO THE MOON




                      Brian Muirhead
                    Constellation Chief Architect
                       PM Challenge, 2009
Introduction/Takeaway

♦ Experience has shown us that integrated architecture
  assessments are crucial for establishing stable configurations that
  meet performance, cost and risk goals
♦ Isolated, “stovepiped” elements designs (i.e., Orion, Altair, Ares,
  etc.) anchored only by “control masses” derived from a reference
  mission are insufficient.
♦ Integrated architecture assessments allow for:
   • Mission-level trades and optimization ensuring efficient vehicle designs
   • Appropriate allocation of design margins
   • Architecture-level functional allocations eliminating “I forgots”




                                                                                2
Integrated Architecture Analysis
                           Cost, Risk                                                         System and Mission Recommendations
                          Assessments



Ares V Concepts



                             Integrated
                            Performance
  Altair Concept
 and parametrics



  Ground Ops
     Transporter                                                         Reserves &              Refine-
                             “Basis” Mission                               Margins                ment
                           (may not meet reqts)“Basis Mission” Buyback   Methodology
  Orion, Ares I
   and EVA
   Baseline                     Surface System Design/Analysis           Cost, Risk, Scenario Analyses
                                                                         •Mobility
                      Lander Config,                                     •Outpost Buildup Rate
                    Unloading Strategy,                                  •Resource Utilization
                     P/L Mass, Volume                                    •Commercial Involvement
                                                                         •International Partnerships                   Continued
                                                                                                                       Surface
                                                                                                                       Scenario
                                                                                                                       Assessments
                                                         “Trade Set”
                   G&As from                              Option &
                    Lat 1 & 2                           Comparisons
                                 Element Concepts
                                                                                                                                     3
Integrated Margins Analysis
    ♦ Integrated margins assessments allow flexibility in allocation
    ♦ Avoids overdesign due to “margin on margins” – unique to exploration missions
    ♦ Stochastic approach allows architecture-level margin confidence levels
                          kg                   Note: PM Reserve may be encumbered by threats and opportunities.
                                               Unencumbered PM Reserve = PM Reserve – E{T&O}


Calculated Gross Capability                                                                    75,085 f ( P t
                                                                                                           Ares −V I sp , mi , j ,t , Δvt , L)
                                                       PM Reserve (Ares-V)

                                                                                                                 Most Likely Gross
      Req’d Del Capability†                                                                    70,085            Capability (Ares-V)
                                                       PgM Reserve

    TLI Stack Control Mass                                                                     66,085                      t
                                                                                                                        g(MTLI mi, j,t ,L)
                                                        PM Reserve (Altair + Orion + SA)
           Predicted Mass*                                                                                   Expected Total Mass
                               Total Margin                                                                  (Altair + Orion + SA)
                               (Altair + Orion + SA)
                                                        MGA (Altair + Orion + SA)

              Base Mass**
                                                                                                        TLI Stack Control Mass
                                                                                                             Orion 20,185 kg
                                                                                                             Altair 45,000 kg
                                                                                                             SA        900 kg



                                                                                                                                            4
                                                                                                                                             4
5
Constellation’s Seven Projects

                    Orion-Crew
Ares- Launch        Exploration       Extravehicular    Mission
   Vehicle            Vehicle           Activities     Operations




     Ground Operations       Altair            Lunar Surface
                                               Systems




                                                                    6
NASA’s Exploration Roadmap
05   06   07     08   09     10   11    12    13     14     15     16   17   18    19   20    21   22   23   24    25


                           Science Robotic Missions
                                                                                                   Mars Expedition Design
                                                                                  7th Human
                   Lunar Robotic Missions                                         Lunar       Lunar Outpost Buildup
                                                                                  Landing
                                                    1st Human
                                                    Orion Flt.


                                                        Surface Systems Development
          Early Design Activity    Lunar Lander Development
                                             Ares V Development
                                  Earth Departure Stage Development

                                              Orion Production and Operations

               Orion Development
                                        Initial Orion Capability
               Ares I Development

                       Commercial Crew/Cargo for ISS
                 ISS Sustaining Operations
      Space Shuttle Ops           SSP Transition…
                                                                                                                        7
                                                                                                                        7
Ares Project

                                         Ares I – Crew Launch Vehicle
 Orion CEV
                  Encapsulated Service    Serves as the long term crew
                  Module (ESM) Panels     launch capability for the U.S.
Instrument Unit
                   Upper Stage            5 segment Shuttle-derived solid
                    Element               rocket booster
 Upper Stage
  Engine           Interstage             New liquid oxygen/liquid
                                          hydrogen upper stage using J-2X
                                          engine


                  First Stage




                                                                            8
Orion Project

          Launch Abort System
                                        Orion – Crew Exploration
                                        Vehicle
                                          Orion will support both
                                          International Space
                                          Station (ISS) and lunar missions
                                          Designed to operate for 180 days
                          Crew Module     and up to 210 days docked to
                                          ISS or supporting outpost
                     Service Module       missions on the moon.
                                          Designed for lunar mission with
                                          4 crew members
Spacecraft Adapter                        Can accommodate up to 6 crew
                                          members to the ISS
                                          Potential to deliver pressurized
                                          and unpressurized cargo to the
                                          ISS


                                                                             9
Ground Operations Project




                               Ares I
                         Crawler-Transporter
             Ares I
            New ML
 Ares I
                                                    Ares I
VAB HB3
                                                   LC 39B




                                 Ares V
             Ares V      Pad 39A Flame Deflector
           Modified ML
 Ares V
VAB HB1
                                                    Ares V
                                                   Pad 39A
                                                             Page 10
Architecture Definition Introduction

♦ Constellation conducted a Lunar Capability Concept Review
  (LCCR) in June 2008 to define an integrated Point of Departure
  (POD)* for the transportation architecture including capabilities to:
  • Deliver and return crew to the surface of the moon for short durations, i.e.
    Human Lunar Return (HLR)
  • Support a range of lunar exploration scenarios and possible surface system
    architectures, including establishment of a lunar outpost
♦ Included in the LCCR were the Mission Concept Reviews for Ares
  V and Altair (crewed and cargo) including
  • Conceptual designs and key driving requirements
  • Technology drivers and alternative designs
  • Design concepts that meet mission and programmatic requirements
♦ Current capabilities of Ares I and Orion for the lunar missions
  were assumed
♦ Lunar Surface System concepts were explored but no POD
  selected
      *This is a POD transportation architecture and NOT the final
                                 baseline
                                                                                   Page 11
Lunar Crewed Mission Profile

                                                                                                  MOON

“Basis” Mission used to establish minimum
content:                                        Crew of 4 + 500 kg cargo
                                                                                           100 kg return payload
       Sortie to Pole
       7 day stay
       4 crew members
       500 kg p/l down
       100 kg p/l up
       Single Burn Lunar Orbit Insertion Burn                                                                LLO 100 km
       at 891 m/s
                                                                        Altair performs
Additional mission content evaluated during                             LOI                                   Orion performs 3
integrated architecture analysis                                                                              Burn TEI up to
                                                                                                              1,492 m/s


                                    Orion
                               20.185 t at
                                       TLI

                                                         EDS Performs TLI
                                                         on FD5
                                                                                            Direct or Skip
                                                                                            Entry
                                                      ERO

                                                 Ares-1 Ascent Target




              90 min.
               launch                                                                     Nominal Water
             separation                                                                   Landing

              EARTH
                    Up to 4 days LEO Loiter                                                                                 12
Ares V 51 Series Trade Space Performance at
       Translunar Injection (Feb 08)
                                                                Common Design Features

        Core      Standard Core          Opt. Core Length /
 Booster            W/ 5 RS-68            # Core Engines        Composite Dry Structures
                                                                for Core Stage, EDS &
                 51.0.39
  5 Segment                           +5.0t 51.0.46             Shroud
    PBAN          63.6t                       68.6t             Height = 116 m
  Steel Case      -2.5t                       +2.5t
   Reusable                             Engines: 6              Metallic Cryo Tanks for
                                        Spacers: 1




                                                        +6.1t
                              +6.1t
                                                                Core Stage & EDS
  5 Segment
                 51.0.40              +5.0t 51.0.47
                                                                RS-68B Performance:
    HTPB          69.7t                       74.7t
                                              +8.6t             Isp = 414.2 sec
Composite Case    +3.6t
  Expendable                             Engines: 6             Thrust = 3547 k N @ vac
                                         Spacers: 1




                                                        -3.6t
                              -2.3t




                                                                J-2X Performance:
                 51.0.41              +3.7t 51.0.48
 5.5 Segment                                                    Isp = 448.0 sec
    PBAN          67.4t                       71.1t
                  +1.3t                       +5.0t             Thrust = 1308 k N @ vac
  Steel Case
   Reusable                              Engines: 6
                                                                Shroud Dimensions:
                                         Spacers: 0
                                                                Barrel Dia. = 10 m
                 LCCR Study Reference      LCCR Study Upgrade
                                                                Usable Dia. = 8.8 m
                                                                Barrel Length = 9.7 m



                                                                                           7405.13
                                                                                            7330.13
Ares V Point of Departure Baseline

                                         ♦ Vehicle 51.0.48
                      21.7 m

   10 m
                                            • 6 Engine Core, 5.5 Segment PBAN Steel Case Booster
                                            • Provides Architecture Closure with Margin

                      23.2 m
                                         ♦ Maintaining Vehicle 51.0.47 with Composite HTPB
                                           Booster as future block change option
                                            • Final Decision on Ares V Booster at Constellation Lunar
    10 m                       116.2 m
                                              SRR (2010)
                                            • Additional Performance Capability if needed for Margin
                                              or requirements
                                            • Allows for competitive acquisition environment for
                        71.3 m                booster
58.7 m


                                         ♦ Near Term Plan to Maintain Booster Options
                                            • Fund key technology areas: composite cases, HTPB
                                              propellant characterization
                                            • Competitive Phase 1 Industry Studies
 NOTE: These are MEAN numbers




                                                                                                   Page 14
Altair Lunar Lander POD Baseline

♦ 4 crew to and from the surface
   • Seven days on the surface
   • Lunar outpost crew rotation
♦ Global access capability
♦ Anytime return to Earth
♦ Capability to land 14 to 17
  metric tons of dedicated cargo
♦ Airlock for surface activities
♦ Descent stage:
   • Liquid oxygen / liquid hydrogen
     propulsion
♦ Ascent stage:
   • Hypergolic Propellants or Liquid
     oxygen/methane




                                          Page 15
Lunar Surface System Concept Elements

                  Conceptual Outpost Elements
                            10 kW Array (net)
                            10 kW Array (net)

            2 kW Array (net)
            2 kW Array (net)


                          Logistics
                          Logistics
                           Pantry
                           Pantry        Habitation
                                         Habitation
   Power Support Unit (PSU)
   Power Support Unit (PSU)               Element Habitation
                                          Element Habitation
(( Supports // scavenges from                       Element
                                                    Element              Small Pressurized
   Supports scavenges from                                               Small Pressurized
       crewed landers ))
       crewed landers                                                      Rover (SPR)
                                                                           Rover (SPR)
                                                                  PSU
                                                                   PSU
                                                           (Facilitates SPR
                                                            (Facilitates SPR
                                                          docking & charging)
                                                          docking & charging)




                                  Common Airlock
                                  Common Airlock
                                    With Lander
                                    With Lander
    ATHLETE
    ATHLETE                                     ISRU Oxygen
                                                 ISRU Oxygen
 Long-distance
  Long-distance                              Production Plant
                                              Production Plant
Mobility System (2)
Mobility System (2)                                                 Unpressurized Rover
                                                                    Unpressurized Rover
                                                                                             16
Mission Design Drivers and Flexibility (example)

 ♦ Drivers:
    •   Surface Stay Time
    •   Anytime Return Capability
    •   Global Access
    •   Surface Mission Duration
    •   Spacecraft maximum mass
    •   Lunar payload delivery and return
 ♦ Mission design parameters traded to achieve global access:
    • Delta-V:
         − Orion fixed at 1492 m/s (including dispersions, 1417 m/s available for
           translational maneuvers)
         − Altair examined from 891m/s - 1350 m/s
         − Earth Departure Stage fixed at 3175 m/s
    • Low Lunar Orbit Loiter:
         − Post-LOI 1 day nominal to +6 days extended
         − Pre-TEI 1 day nominal to +5 days extended
    • Temporal Availability (Availability over 18.6 year lunar nodal cycle)
         − Assume 100% initial availability, trade availability for additional surface
           locations
    • Reserves/Margin Posture
                                                                                         17
Delta-V:
3-Burn Lunar Orbit Insertion Sequence for Global Access


        LOI-2                                  •Trajectories are optimized based on
        Plane change                           lunar surface location and epoch to
        maneuver
                                               minimize total propellant cost and
                                               system wet mass.

                                               •Forcing energy into the system by
                                               increasing Delta-V rapidly increases
                                               wet mass. Other mission design
                                               techniques are used to gain global
                                               access.



                                       LOI-1
                 LOI-3
                                       Capture maneuver
                 LLO circularization




                                                                                      18
Low Lunar Orbit Loiter:
Benefit to Global Access
 No Extended loiter

                      •Map is a Mercator projection
                      of entire lunar surface.
                      •White regions represent
                      difficult to reach locations
                      due to earth-moon geometry.
                      •When Delta-V is constrained
                      due to mass limits, loiter in
  Extended loiter     lunar orbit prior to descent is
                      a powerful knob for
                      additional access.
                      •Additional loiter means
                      increased total in-space
                      mission duration, while
                      maintaining fixed surface
                      stay.
                                                        19
Integrated Performance Assessment
                                                           Ares-V Options*, Altair Mass* vs. Surface Access -
                                                 ->50% Temporal, 2nd TLI Opp, 1 Day Pre-TEI Loiter, +6 Days Post LOI Loiter

                                                                                             100% Temporal, 5th TLI Opp   90% Temporal, 2nd TLI Opp     50% Temporal, 2nd TLI Opp
                   49500        51.0.47=74.7 t - 20.2 t (Orion) - 5 t (L3 PMR) = 49.5 t



                   48500
                                                                                                                                                                  +6 Days LOI

                                                                                  1000 m/s
                   47500
Altair Mass (kg)




                                                                                                +6 Days LOI
                   46500                                                                                                                                      +6 Days LOI
                                                                  +4 Days LOI
                                              +2 Days LOI
                                                                                                                                        51.0.48=71.1 t - 20.2 t (Orion) - 5 t (L3 PMR) = 45.9 t
                                        Cargo Optimized,                               Crew Optimized,
                   45500
                                            891 m/s                                        950 m/s



                   44500

                                     Crew Optimized,
                   43500                 891 m/s



                   42500
                            0                  10                20               30                 40              50    60              70               80                90                  100

                   * L3 Reserves applied to Ares-V and Altair,                                       % Lunar Surface Access
                   Altair Masses include 860 kg spacecraft adapter




                                                 Takeaway: Surface access is attainable through various trades of Delta-V, loiter, and temporal availability.
                                                                                                               of Delta-


                                                                                                                                                                                                        20
System and Mission Recommendation
                   50000
                               C   6    C                                                                                      l
                                                                                                                         ora
                                             Ares 51.0.47 51.0.47 - Option
                                                Ares-V 51.0.47 - Option                                                mp             Global access achieved
                                                  Ares-V                                                        %
                                                                                                                    Te                 Global access achieved
                                                                                                                                      with reduce temporal
                                                • • 6-RS68B
                                                     6-RS68B                                                  50                       with reduce temporal
                                                • • 55Segment Composite SRBs                                                          coverage (not anytime)
                                                                                                                                       coverage (not anytime)
                                                       Segment Composite SRBs                                                         and extended loiter
                                                                                                  A                                    and extended loiter
                                                                                                                                      (notional)
                                                                                                                                       (notional)
Altair Mass (kg)




                               S   6    S                                             B
                   45000                                                                                                           Extended Loiter              D
                                             Ares 51.0.48                                                 D
                                            Ares-V Reference: 51.0.48
                                            Ares-V Reference: 51.0.48                 C
                                            ••   6-RS68B
                                                  6-RS68B
                                            ••   5.5 Segment Steel Reusable SRBs
                                                  5.5 Segment Steel Reusable SRBs
                                                                                                              Altair Reference: p804-D
                                                                                                              Altair Reference: p804-D
                                                                                                              • • Sized for 1000 m/s, propellants
                                                                                                                   Sized for 1000 m/s, propellants
                                                                                                                  loaded for 950 m/s
                                                                                                                   loaded for 950 m/s
                                                                                                              • • Sized for 55days total LLO Loiter
                                                                                                                   Sized for days total LLO Loiter

                   40000
                           0           10            20           30          40     50      60           70               80                        90     100
                                                                                                      †
                                                                             % Lunar Surface Access
                           ♦ Point D is the nominal baseline design point which includes 950 m/s
                             load and 5 day low lunar orbit loiter
                           ♦ Points B & C are with Altair 950 m/s load without loiter
                           ♦ Point A would be enabled by Ares 51.0.47 and allow Altair to load to
                             1000 m/s
                           ♦ Full global access can be achieved with combination of mission timing,
                             duration and/or additional loiter                                    Page 21
Resulting Change in Ares V Point of
Departure

            Core      Standard Core          Opt. Core Length /
     Booster            W/ 5 RS-68            # Core Engines
                     51.0.39
      5 Segment                         +5.0t 51.0.46
                      63.6t    Ref DDTE          68.6t   +$127M
        PBAN
                      -2.5t    Ref Produc        +2.5t   +$22M/yr
      Steel Case               1 in 66                   1 in 62
                                            Engines: 6
       Reusable                             Spacers: 1




                                                          +6.1t
                                +6.1t
      5 Segment
                     51.0.40            +5.0t 51.0.47
        HTPB                                     74.7t   +$1.03B
                       69.7t    +$898M
                                                 +8.6t   +$295M/yr
    Composite Case     +3.6t    +273M/yr
                                1 in 63     Engines: 6   1 in 59
      Expendable                            Spacers: 1




                                                          -3.6t
                                -2.3t
                     51.0.41            +3.7t 51.0.48
     5.5 Segment
        PBAN          67.4t     +$600M        71.1t      +$727M
                      +1.3t     +$30M/yr      +5.0t      +$52M/yr
      Steel Case
                                1 in 64  Engines: 6      1 in 62
       Reusable                          Spacers: 0




                                                                     22
Lunar Transportation Figures of Merit
♦ Performance                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ♦ Affordability
  •       Ability to support the lunar outpost                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      •                                       DDT&E
  •       Mass to surface: crew & cargo                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             •                                       Recurring
  •       Robustness of margins by system                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           •                                       Budget wedge left for surface systems
  •       Surface coverage: global access                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           •                                       Cost confidence

                                                                                            Effects of Reducing Altair MR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  LCCR-M (Trade Set 2) Cx Level Sandchart

                                                                                           Ares-V Options*, Altair Mass* vs. Surface Access -
                                                                                 ->50% Temporal, 2nd TLI Opp, 1day Pre-TEI Loiter, +4 Days Post LOI Loiter
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Lunar Surface Systems
                                                                                                                                     100% Temporal, 5th TLI Opp                                                   90% Temporal, 2nd TLI Opp         50% Temporal, 2nd TLI Opp                                                                                   $14,000                Program Reserves
                                               49500                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Altair
                                                             51.0.47=74.7 m T - 20.2 mT (Orion) - 5 mT (L3 PMR) = 49.5 mT                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              EVA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Ground Operations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Program Integration
                                               48500                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            $12,000                Mission Ops
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Ares V
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Ares I
                                               47500                                                 47139 kg, 1000 m/s                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Orion
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                $10,000                Total NOA
                            Altair Mass (kg)




                                               46500
                                                                                                                                                                         off load prop & subtract 1mT MR




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        RY $M
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 $8,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          51.0.48=71.1 m T - 20.2 mT (Orion) - 5 mT (L3 PMR) = 45.9 mT
                                               45500
                                                                                                                                                                                    subtract 1 mT MR




                                                                   Cargo Optimized,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Crew Optimized minus 1mT MR, sized for 1000 m/s, offload prop to
                                                                                                             subtract 1 mT MR




                                                                   46264 kg, 891 m/s
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     950 m/s, + 4 days LOI loiter, 44757 kg, resultant Cargo = 14.7 mT
                                                                                       Crew Optimized,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           $6,000
                                                                                       45765 kg, 950 m/s
                                               44500
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        51.0.40=69.7mT - 20.2 m T (Orion) - 5 m T (L3 PMR) = 44.5 m T
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Crew Optimized minus 1mT MR, sized f or 950 m/s, + 4
                                                                   Crew Optimized,                                                                                                                                                days LOI loiter, 43485 kg, resultant Cargo = 13.0 mT
                                               43500               44185 kg, 891 m/s                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             $4,000
                                                                                                                                 add loiter                                                            add loiter
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          51.0.46=68.6m T - 20.2 mT (Orion) - 5 m T (L3 PMR) = 43.4 mT

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    43002 kg, Cargo Capability 12.9 mT
                                               42500                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             $2,000
                                                            0                  10               20                              30                         40                            50                          60                 70                   80                        90                  100

                                                     * L3 Reserves applied to Ares-V and Altair,                                                                  % Lunar Surface Access
                                                     Altair Masses include 860 kg spacecraft adapter
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    $0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      FY08       FY10          FY12          FY14     FY16         FY18        FY20       FY22     FY24     FY26     FY28       FY30
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Fiscal Year
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        CxAT_Lunar TIP 06 May 2008                                           3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    May 21st, 2008                                                                            SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED (SBU)                                                     Page 56




♦ Risk                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         ♦ Operations / Extensibility
      •    LOC / LOM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Facilities impacts
      •    Technical performance risk                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     • Operational flows
      •    Schedule risk                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Mars feed-forward
      •    Commonality
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Ground Systems Discriminators
                               Trade Studies Attacked Risk Drivers of Minimal Functional Vehicle (aborts were “off the table”)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            ROM Development Costs thru 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          3,500,000
                                                                                                                                     Preliminary Results subject to revision during close‐out
                                                                            1 in 7                                                   Results do not include placeholders                                                                                                                                                                                                  3,000,000




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          CONSTELLATION GROUND OPERATIONS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   VIE
                                                                                                                                            Task Option Risk Build‐Up 
                                                                                                                                                         by Subsystem



                 3.00E‐01
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2,500,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   SRPE
                                                A 
                 2.50E‐01
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2,000,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   SPE


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1,500,000
                 2.00E‐01                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          LPE

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            MMOD
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Life Support
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1,000,000
                 1.50E‐01
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Thermal
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   MLE
           LOC




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Propulsion
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Power
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Avionics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             500,000

                 1.00E‐01
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Operations

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                LDAC 2                                                                                            0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Baseline 45.0.2       51.00.40            51.00.46            51.00.47      51.00.48
                 5.00E‐02

                                                                                                                          Increasing Mass for LOC/LOM mitigation
                 0.00E+00
                                               Baseline      100      200        300      400        500        600                   700               800                  900          1000             1100        1200      1300        1400     1500          1274 :   1273  :
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  LDAC‐2     Design
                                                                                                                                                 Mass Increase [kg]




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           For NASA Internal Use Only
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Page 23
Stochastic Margins Analysis @TLI

                       kg
Calculated Gross Capability                                                                     f ( PAres −V I sp , mi , j ,t , Δvt , L)
                                                                                                     t


                                                      PM Reserve (Ares-V)

                                                                                                     Most Likely Gross
      Req’d Del Capability†                                                                          Capability (Ares-V)
                                                      PgM Reserve

    TLI Stack Control Mass
                                                                                                        t
                                                       PM Reserve (Altair + Orion + SA)
                                                                                                   g (M TLI mi , j ,t ,L)

          Predicted Mass*                                                                        Expected Total Mass
                              Total Margin                                                       (Altair + Orion + SA)
                              (Altair + Orion + SA)
                                                       MGA (Altair + Orion + SA)

              Base Mass**                                                                 TLI Stack Control Mass
                                                                                                Orion 20,185 kg
                                                                                                Altair 45,000 kg*
                                                                                          *including 900 kg adapter




   ♦ Stochastic analysis focused around trans-lunar injection (TLI)


                                                                                                                              Page 24
PDFs for Ares-V Delivery Capability

                                               PDF for Ares-V Delivery Capability (Various Designs)

                         0.09


                         0.08


                         0.07


                         0.06
        Probability/mt




                         0.05                                                                                           Ares 51.0.39
                                                                                                                        Ares 51.0.48
                         0.04                                                                                           Ares 51.0.47


                         0.03


                         0.02


                         0.01


                           0
                                60   62   64        66      68      70        72       74      76       78      80
                                                                    mt



PDF with the 95th percentile at 65.2 mt and the 5th                      PDF with the 95th percentile at 74.7 mt, the 5th percentile at
percentile at 62 mt, developed from a Monte Carlo                        69.7 mt, and some negative skewness. This was developed
analysis by SpaceWorks Engineering.                                      using engineering judgment.

                                                                                                                                       Page 25
CDFs for Ares-V Delivery Capability

                                   CDF for Ares-V Delivery Capability (Various Designs)

               1

              0.9

              0.8

              0.7

              0.6
Probability




                                                                                                    Ares 51.0.39
              0.5                                                                                   Ares 51.0.48
                                                                                                    Ares 51.0.47
              0.4

              0.3

              0.2

              0.1

               0
                    60   62   64       66      68      70      72      74      76         78   80
                                                       mt




                                                                                                               Page 26
Ares 51.0.48 and Various Altair ΔV Capabilities




                                                  27
Ares 51.0.47 and Various Altair ΔV Capabilities




                                                  28
Probabilities of Having Adequate Margin: By Launch
                        Vehicle and Cargo for Sortie and Outpost Missions

                                     Critical Probability for Various LVs and Altair Loadings

               1

              0.9

              0.8

              0.7                 Stochastic margins
                                   Stochastic margins
                                 assessment indicates
                                  assessment indicates
              0.6              high probability of having
                                high probability of having
Probability




                               adequate Program/Project
                                adequate Program/Project
              0.5                 margins and reserve
                                   margins and reserve
              0.4

              0.3

              0.2

              0.1

               0
                    0         500             1000             1500           2000             2500             3000   3500
                                                        DM Cargo/PMR (In Excess of 500 kg)

                                    Ares 51.0.39 + Altair 804-D @ 891 m/s     Ares 51.0.48 + Altair 804-D @ 891 m/s
                                    Ares 51.0.47 + Altair 804-D @ 891 m/s     Ares 51.0.48 + Altair 804-D @ 950 m/s
                                    Ares 51.0.48 + Altair 804-D @ 1000 m/s

                                                                                                                              Page 29
Lunar Transportation Architecture Summary
♦ Ares-V
   • Ares-V 51.0.48, maximizes commonality between
     Lunar and Initial Capabilities:
       − 6 engine core, 5.5 segment PBAN steel case booster
       − Provides architecture closure with additional margin
       − High commonality with Ares I
   • Continue to study the benefits/risk of improved
     performance of Ares-V 51.0.47
♦ Altair
   • Robust capability to support Lunar Outpost Missions:
       − Optimize for crew missions (500 kg + airlock with crew)
       − Lander cargo delivery: ~ 14,500 kg in cargo only mode
   • Size the system for global access while allowing
     future mission and system flexibility
       − Size Altair tanks for 1,000 m/s LOI delta-v
       − Size for an additional 4 days of Low-Lunar Orbit loiter
♦ Orion
   • Continue to mature Orion vehicle concept
   • Maintain strong emphasis on mass control
       − Continue to hold Orion control mass to 20,185 kg at TLI
   • Maintain emphasis on evolution of Orion Block 2 to
     support lunar Outpost missions
Lunar Architecture Technical Summary
♦ The Constellation Program has completed extensive design, cost and
  risk analysis studies of lunar transportation options and developed an
  adequately closed Point of Departure (POD) transportation architecture
  for the CxP Lunar Capability including capabilities to:
   • Deliver and return crew to the surface of the moon for short durations,
     Human Lunar Return (HLR) capability
   • Enable establishment of a lunar outpost architecture
   • Support a range of mission campaigns and possible lunar surface
     architecture options
♦ Ares, Altair, Orion, EVA and GOP have completed extensive design,
  performance, cost and risk analysis to establish this baseline
♦ Lunar Surface Systems (LSS) has provided a feasible set of surface
  system configurations, vehicles and operational concepts to support
  the validation of the transportation system


          This is a POD transportation architecture baseline
                          not the final design
                                                                               Page 31
Introduction/Takeaway

♦ Experience has shown us that integrated architecture
  assessments are crucial for establishing stable configurations
  that meet performance, cost and risk goals
♦ Isolated, “stovepiped” elements designs (i.e., Orion, Altair, Ares,
  etc.) anchored only by “control masses” derived from a
  reference mission are insufficient.
♦ Integrated architecture assessments allow for:
  • Mission-level trades and optimization ensuring efficient vehicle designs
  • Appropriate allocation of vehicle design margins
  • Architecture-level functional allocations eliminating “I forgots”
♦ Details on the performance of the architecture elements and
  how they operate together is critical to maintaining a viable
  architecture


                                                                               32
Back Ups




June 18 - 20, 2008              Section 13: Architecture Summary and Next Steps   Page 33
System and Mission Recommendation
                   50000
                                          6                                                                                                                               l
                                  C               C                                                                                                                   po
                                                                                                                                                                        ra
                                                         Ares 51.0.47 51.0.47--Option
                                                           Ares-V 51.0.47 Option
                                                            Ares-V                                                                                                   m
                                                             • • 6-RS68B                                                                                          Te
                                                                  6-RS68B                                                                                     %
                                                             • • 55Segment Composite SRBs                                                                  50                      Global access achieved
                                                                    Segment Composite SRBs                                                                                          Global access achieved
                                                                                                                                                                                   with reduce temporal
                                                                                                                                                                                    with reduce temporal
                                                                                                                                              A                                    coverage (not anytime)
                                                                                                                                                                                    coverage (not anytime)
                                                                                                                                                                                   and extended loiter
                                                                                                                                                                                    and extended loiter
                                                                                                                                                                                   (notional)
Altair Mass (kg)




                                                                                                                                                                                    (notional)
                                  S       6       S                                                                  B
                                                                                                                                                                              Extended Loiter                D
                   45000                                 Ares-V Recommendation:
                                                         Ares 51.0.48                                                                                 D
                                                          Ares-V Recommendation:
                                                              51.0.48                                                C
                                                               51.0.48
                                                          • • 6-RS68B
                                                               6-RS68B
                                                          • • 5.5 Segment Steel Reusable
                                                               5.5 Segment Steel Reusable                                                                  Altair Recommendation:
                                                                                                                                                           Altair Recommendation:
                                                              SRBs
                                                               SRBs                                                                                        • • Sized for 1000 m/s, propellants
                                                                                                                                                                Sized for 1000 m/s, propellants
                                                                                                                                                               Loaded for 950 m/s
                                                                                                                                                                Loaded for 950 m/s
                                                                                                                                                           • • Sized for 55days total LLO
                                                                                                                                                                Sized for days total LLO
                                                                                                                                                               Loiter
                                                                                                                                                                Loiter


                   40000
                              0                 10                 20                 30              40             50              60                   70              80                90               100
                                                                                                                                                  †
                                                                                                    % Lunar Surface Access
                                                                                                    Additional
                                                                         Altair delta-v           Transportation      Cargo
                                                       Degree                                                         Down                  Available Reserve @ TLI (t)
                                                                             (m/s)              (Ares & G.O.) Cost                                                                              % Surface
                                          Ares-        of Ares                                      (FY07 $M)*          in
                                            V                                                                                                                                                   Access @
                           Ares-V                        ISS/                                                         Cargo
                                                                                                                                                                                                  50%
                                          Plom          Lunar                                                         Only                                               Altair
                                                                        Sized                   DDT&E       Rec.                               Ares-V                                           Temporal
                                                      Common                        Load                              Mode         Prog
                                                                         For                     ($M)      ($M/yr)     (t)                     Perform                             Total
                                                                                                                                                               Reserve
                                                                                                                                                                                  Margin
                     A     51.0.47         1/59        Medium           1000         1000       +$1,556    +$303         14.6       2.3           5.0              6.5             50%            65%

                     B     51.0.48         1/62           High          950           950       +$1,044    +$55          13.8       0.1           5.0              6.3             50%            50%
                     C     51.0.48         1/62           High          1000          950       +$1,044    +$55       14.6**        1.6           5.0              4.2             40%            50%

                     D     51.0.48         1/62           High          1000          950       +$1,044    +$55       14.7**        1.2           5.0              4.3             40%            70%
                   * Additional cost as compared to the 51.0.39 PPBE budget submittal                                           † Coverage based on coarse trajectory scans across the Metonic cycle.
                   ** P/L available with lander “kitted” for cargo mode and full prop loading                                     Additional surface coverage expected with further mission design
                                                                                                                                  refinement.                                                                    34
Mars Mission Profile
                                                               10       ~500 days on Mars

            In-Situ propellant production for Ascent       5
                                                                                                    11   Crew: Ascent to high Mars
                             Vehicle
        Aerocapture / Entry, Descent & Land Ascent                                                                 orbit
                                                           4
                          Vehicle                                                                                        12 Crew: Prepare for Trans-
                                                                                                                                Earth Injection
              Aerocapture Habitat
             Lander into Mars Orbit       3



                                                                    9    Crew: Use Orion to
                                                                         transfer to Habitat Lander;
    Cargo:                                                               then EDL on Mars
2   ~350 days
    to Mars
                                                                          8   Crew: Jettison drop
                                                                              tank after trans-Mars injection
                                                                              ~180 days out to Mars

                                                                                                                  13   Crew: ~180 days
                       Cargo                                                                                            back to Earth
                                                                           Crew
                       Vehicles
                                                                          Transfer
                                                                          Vehicle

                                      7       Ares-I Crew Launch
         4 Ares-V Cargo
                                      6       3 Ares-V Cargo Launches
    1       Launches



                  ~26                                                                      ~30
                 months                                                                   months
                                                                                                                                  14   Orion direct
                                                                                                                                       Earth return


                                                                                                                                                       35

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  • 1. ARCHITECTING THE NEXT CREWED MISSIONS TO THE MOON Brian Muirhead Constellation Chief Architect PM Challenge, 2009
  • 2. Introduction/Takeaway ♦ Experience has shown us that integrated architecture assessments are crucial for establishing stable configurations that meet performance, cost and risk goals ♦ Isolated, “stovepiped” elements designs (i.e., Orion, Altair, Ares, etc.) anchored only by “control masses” derived from a reference mission are insufficient. ♦ Integrated architecture assessments allow for: • Mission-level trades and optimization ensuring efficient vehicle designs • Appropriate allocation of design margins • Architecture-level functional allocations eliminating “I forgots” 2
  • 3. Integrated Architecture Analysis Cost, Risk System and Mission Recommendations Assessments Ares V Concepts Integrated Performance Altair Concept and parametrics Ground Ops Transporter Reserves & Refine- “Basis” Mission Margins ment (may not meet reqts)“Basis Mission” Buyback Methodology Orion, Ares I and EVA Baseline Surface System Design/Analysis Cost, Risk, Scenario Analyses •Mobility Lander Config, •Outpost Buildup Rate Unloading Strategy, •Resource Utilization P/L Mass, Volume •Commercial Involvement •International Partnerships Continued Surface Scenario Assessments “Trade Set” G&As from Option & Lat 1 & 2 Comparisons Element Concepts 3
  • 4. Integrated Margins Analysis ♦ Integrated margins assessments allow flexibility in allocation ♦ Avoids overdesign due to “margin on margins” – unique to exploration missions ♦ Stochastic approach allows architecture-level margin confidence levels kg Note: PM Reserve may be encumbered by threats and opportunities. Unencumbered PM Reserve = PM Reserve – E{T&O} Calculated Gross Capability 75,085 f ( P t Ares −V I sp , mi , j ,t , Δvt , L) PM Reserve (Ares-V) Most Likely Gross Req’d Del Capability† 70,085 Capability (Ares-V) PgM Reserve TLI Stack Control Mass 66,085 t g(MTLI mi, j,t ,L) PM Reserve (Altair + Orion + SA) Predicted Mass* Expected Total Mass Total Margin (Altair + Orion + SA) (Altair + Orion + SA) MGA (Altair + Orion + SA) Base Mass** TLI Stack Control Mass Orion 20,185 kg Altair 45,000 kg SA 900 kg 4 4
  • 5. 5
  • 6. Constellation’s Seven Projects Orion-Crew Ares- Launch Exploration Extravehicular Mission Vehicle Vehicle Activities Operations Ground Operations Altair Lunar Surface Systems 6
  • 7. NASA’s Exploration Roadmap 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Science Robotic Missions Mars Expedition Design 7th Human Lunar Robotic Missions Lunar Lunar Outpost Buildup Landing 1st Human Orion Flt. Surface Systems Development Early Design Activity Lunar Lander Development Ares V Development Earth Departure Stage Development Orion Production and Operations Orion Development Initial Orion Capability Ares I Development Commercial Crew/Cargo for ISS ISS Sustaining Operations Space Shuttle Ops SSP Transition… 7 7
  • 8. Ares Project Ares I – Crew Launch Vehicle Orion CEV Encapsulated Service Serves as the long term crew Module (ESM) Panels launch capability for the U.S. Instrument Unit Upper Stage 5 segment Shuttle-derived solid Element rocket booster Upper Stage Engine Interstage New liquid oxygen/liquid hydrogen upper stage using J-2X engine First Stage 8
  • 9. Orion Project Launch Abort System Orion – Crew Exploration Vehicle Orion will support both International Space Station (ISS) and lunar missions Designed to operate for 180 days Crew Module and up to 210 days docked to ISS or supporting outpost Service Module missions on the moon. Designed for lunar mission with 4 crew members Spacecraft Adapter Can accommodate up to 6 crew members to the ISS Potential to deliver pressurized and unpressurized cargo to the ISS 9
  • 10. Ground Operations Project Ares I Crawler-Transporter Ares I New ML Ares I Ares I VAB HB3 LC 39B Ares V Ares V Pad 39A Flame Deflector Modified ML Ares V VAB HB1 Ares V Pad 39A Page 10
  • 11. Architecture Definition Introduction ♦ Constellation conducted a Lunar Capability Concept Review (LCCR) in June 2008 to define an integrated Point of Departure (POD)* for the transportation architecture including capabilities to: • Deliver and return crew to the surface of the moon for short durations, i.e. Human Lunar Return (HLR) • Support a range of lunar exploration scenarios and possible surface system architectures, including establishment of a lunar outpost ♦ Included in the LCCR were the Mission Concept Reviews for Ares V and Altair (crewed and cargo) including • Conceptual designs and key driving requirements • Technology drivers and alternative designs • Design concepts that meet mission and programmatic requirements ♦ Current capabilities of Ares I and Orion for the lunar missions were assumed ♦ Lunar Surface System concepts were explored but no POD selected *This is a POD transportation architecture and NOT the final baseline Page 11
  • 12. Lunar Crewed Mission Profile MOON “Basis” Mission used to establish minimum content: Crew of 4 + 500 kg cargo 100 kg return payload Sortie to Pole 7 day stay 4 crew members 500 kg p/l down 100 kg p/l up Single Burn Lunar Orbit Insertion Burn LLO 100 km at 891 m/s Altair performs Additional mission content evaluated during LOI Orion performs 3 integrated architecture analysis Burn TEI up to 1,492 m/s Orion 20.185 t at TLI EDS Performs TLI on FD5 Direct or Skip Entry ERO Ares-1 Ascent Target 90 min. launch Nominal Water separation Landing EARTH Up to 4 days LEO Loiter 12
  • 13. Ares V 51 Series Trade Space Performance at Translunar Injection (Feb 08) Common Design Features Core Standard Core Opt. Core Length / Booster W/ 5 RS-68 # Core Engines Composite Dry Structures for Core Stage, EDS & 51.0.39 5 Segment +5.0t 51.0.46 Shroud PBAN 63.6t 68.6t Height = 116 m Steel Case -2.5t +2.5t Reusable Engines: 6 Metallic Cryo Tanks for Spacers: 1 +6.1t +6.1t Core Stage & EDS 5 Segment 51.0.40 +5.0t 51.0.47 RS-68B Performance: HTPB 69.7t 74.7t +8.6t Isp = 414.2 sec Composite Case +3.6t Expendable Engines: 6 Thrust = 3547 k N @ vac Spacers: 1 -3.6t -2.3t J-2X Performance: 51.0.41 +3.7t 51.0.48 5.5 Segment Isp = 448.0 sec PBAN 67.4t 71.1t +1.3t +5.0t Thrust = 1308 k N @ vac Steel Case Reusable Engines: 6 Shroud Dimensions: Spacers: 0 Barrel Dia. = 10 m LCCR Study Reference LCCR Study Upgrade Usable Dia. = 8.8 m Barrel Length = 9.7 m 7405.13 7330.13
  • 14. Ares V Point of Departure Baseline ♦ Vehicle 51.0.48 21.7 m 10 m • 6 Engine Core, 5.5 Segment PBAN Steel Case Booster • Provides Architecture Closure with Margin 23.2 m ♦ Maintaining Vehicle 51.0.47 with Composite HTPB Booster as future block change option • Final Decision on Ares V Booster at Constellation Lunar 10 m 116.2 m SRR (2010) • Additional Performance Capability if needed for Margin or requirements • Allows for competitive acquisition environment for 71.3 m booster 58.7 m ♦ Near Term Plan to Maintain Booster Options • Fund key technology areas: composite cases, HTPB propellant characterization • Competitive Phase 1 Industry Studies NOTE: These are MEAN numbers Page 14
  • 15. Altair Lunar Lander POD Baseline ♦ 4 crew to and from the surface • Seven days on the surface • Lunar outpost crew rotation ♦ Global access capability ♦ Anytime return to Earth ♦ Capability to land 14 to 17 metric tons of dedicated cargo ♦ Airlock for surface activities ♦ Descent stage: • Liquid oxygen / liquid hydrogen propulsion ♦ Ascent stage: • Hypergolic Propellants or Liquid oxygen/methane Page 15
  • 16. Lunar Surface System Concept Elements Conceptual Outpost Elements 10 kW Array (net) 10 kW Array (net) 2 kW Array (net) 2 kW Array (net) Logistics Logistics Pantry Pantry Habitation Habitation Power Support Unit (PSU) Power Support Unit (PSU) Element Habitation Element Habitation (( Supports // scavenges from Element Element Small Pressurized Supports scavenges from Small Pressurized crewed landers )) crewed landers Rover (SPR) Rover (SPR) PSU PSU (Facilitates SPR (Facilitates SPR docking & charging) docking & charging) Common Airlock Common Airlock With Lander With Lander ATHLETE ATHLETE ISRU Oxygen ISRU Oxygen Long-distance Long-distance Production Plant Production Plant Mobility System (2) Mobility System (2) Unpressurized Rover Unpressurized Rover 16
  • 17. Mission Design Drivers and Flexibility (example) ♦ Drivers: • Surface Stay Time • Anytime Return Capability • Global Access • Surface Mission Duration • Spacecraft maximum mass • Lunar payload delivery and return ♦ Mission design parameters traded to achieve global access: • Delta-V: − Orion fixed at 1492 m/s (including dispersions, 1417 m/s available for translational maneuvers) − Altair examined from 891m/s - 1350 m/s − Earth Departure Stage fixed at 3175 m/s • Low Lunar Orbit Loiter: − Post-LOI 1 day nominal to +6 days extended − Pre-TEI 1 day nominal to +5 days extended • Temporal Availability (Availability over 18.6 year lunar nodal cycle) − Assume 100% initial availability, trade availability for additional surface locations • Reserves/Margin Posture 17
  • 18. Delta-V: 3-Burn Lunar Orbit Insertion Sequence for Global Access LOI-2 •Trajectories are optimized based on Plane change lunar surface location and epoch to maneuver minimize total propellant cost and system wet mass. •Forcing energy into the system by increasing Delta-V rapidly increases wet mass. Other mission design techniques are used to gain global access. LOI-1 LOI-3 Capture maneuver LLO circularization 18
  • 19. Low Lunar Orbit Loiter: Benefit to Global Access No Extended loiter •Map is a Mercator projection of entire lunar surface. •White regions represent difficult to reach locations due to earth-moon geometry. •When Delta-V is constrained due to mass limits, loiter in Extended loiter lunar orbit prior to descent is a powerful knob for additional access. •Additional loiter means increased total in-space mission duration, while maintaining fixed surface stay. 19
  • 20. Integrated Performance Assessment Ares-V Options*, Altair Mass* vs. Surface Access - ->50% Temporal, 2nd TLI Opp, 1 Day Pre-TEI Loiter, +6 Days Post LOI Loiter 100% Temporal, 5th TLI Opp 90% Temporal, 2nd TLI Opp 50% Temporal, 2nd TLI Opp 49500 51.0.47=74.7 t - 20.2 t (Orion) - 5 t (L3 PMR) = 49.5 t 48500 +6 Days LOI 1000 m/s 47500 Altair Mass (kg) +6 Days LOI 46500 +6 Days LOI +4 Days LOI +2 Days LOI 51.0.48=71.1 t - 20.2 t (Orion) - 5 t (L3 PMR) = 45.9 t Cargo Optimized, Crew Optimized, 45500 891 m/s 950 m/s 44500 Crew Optimized, 43500 891 m/s 42500 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 * L3 Reserves applied to Ares-V and Altair, % Lunar Surface Access Altair Masses include 860 kg spacecraft adapter Takeaway: Surface access is attainable through various trades of Delta-V, loiter, and temporal availability. of Delta- 20
  • 21. System and Mission Recommendation 50000 C 6 C l ora Ares 51.0.47 51.0.47 - Option Ares-V 51.0.47 - Option mp Global access achieved Ares-V % Te Global access achieved with reduce temporal • • 6-RS68B 6-RS68B 50 with reduce temporal • • 55Segment Composite SRBs coverage (not anytime) coverage (not anytime) Segment Composite SRBs and extended loiter A and extended loiter (notional) (notional) Altair Mass (kg) S 6 S B 45000 Extended Loiter D Ares 51.0.48 D Ares-V Reference: 51.0.48 Ares-V Reference: 51.0.48 C •• 6-RS68B 6-RS68B •• 5.5 Segment Steel Reusable SRBs 5.5 Segment Steel Reusable SRBs Altair Reference: p804-D Altair Reference: p804-D • • Sized for 1000 m/s, propellants Sized for 1000 m/s, propellants loaded for 950 m/s loaded for 950 m/s • • Sized for 55days total LLO Loiter Sized for days total LLO Loiter 40000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 † % Lunar Surface Access ♦ Point D is the nominal baseline design point which includes 950 m/s load and 5 day low lunar orbit loiter ♦ Points B & C are with Altair 950 m/s load without loiter ♦ Point A would be enabled by Ares 51.0.47 and allow Altair to load to 1000 m/s ♦ Full global access can be achieved with combination of mission timing, duration and/or additional loiter Page 21
  • 22. Resulting Change in Ares V Point of Departure Core Standard Core Opt. Core Length / Booster W/ 5 RS-68 # Core Engines 51.0.39 5 Segment +5.0t 51.0.46 63.6t Ref DDTE 68.6t +$127M PBAN -2.5t Ref Produc +2.5t +$22M/yr Steel Case 1 in 66 1 in 62 Engines: 6 Reusable Spacers: 1 +6.1t +6.1t 5 Segment 51.0.40 +5.0t 51.0.47 HTPB 74.7t +$1.03B 69.7t +$898M +8.6t +$295M/yr Composite Case +3.6t +273M/yr 1 in 63 Engines: 6 1 in 59 Expendable Spacers: 1 -3.6t -2.3t 51.0.41 +3.7t 51.0.48 5.5 Segment PBAN 67.4t +$600M 71.1t +$727M +1.3t +$30M/yr +5.0t +$52M/yr Steel Case 1 in 64 Engines: 6 1 in 62 Reusable Spacers: 0 22
  • 23. Lunar Transportation Figures of Merit ♦ Performance ♦ Affordability • Ability to support the lunar outpost • DDT&E • Mass to surface: crew & cargo • Recurring • Robustness of margins by system • Budget wedge left for surface systems • Surface coverage: global access • Cost confidence Effects of Reducing Altair MR LCCR-M (Trade Set 2) Cx Level Sandchart Ares-V Options*, Altair Mass* vs. Surface Access - ->50% Temporal, 2nd TLI Opp, 1day Pre-TEI Loiter, +4 Days Post LOI Loiter Lunar Surface Systems 100% Temporal, 5th TLI Opp 90% Temporal, 2nd TLI Opp 50% Temporal, 2nd TLI Opp $14,000 Program Reserves 49500 Altair 51.0.47=74.7 m T - 20.2 mT (Orion) - 5 mT (L3 PMR) = 49.5 mT EVA Ground Operations Program Integration 48500 $12,000 Mission Ops Ares V Ares I 47500 47139 kg, 1000 m/s Orion $10,000 Total NOA Altair Mass (kg) 46500 off load prop & subtract 1mT MR RY $M $8,000 51.0.48=71.1 m T - 20.2 mT (Orion) - 5 mT (L3 PMR) = 45.9 mT 45500 subtract 1 mT MR Cargo Optimized, Crew Optimized minus 1mT MR, sized for 1000 m/s, offload prop to subtract 1 mT MR 46264 kg, 891 m/s 950 m/s, + 4 days LOI loiter, 44757 kg, resultant Cargo = 14.7 mT Crew Optimized, $6,000 45765 kg, 950 m/s 44500 51.0.40=69.7mT - 20.2 m T (Orion) - 5 m T (L3 PMR) = 44.5 m T Crew Optimized minus 1mT MR, sized f or 950 m/s, + 4 Crew Optimized, days LOI loiter, 43485 kg, resultant Cargo = 13.0 mT 43500 44185 kg, 891 m/s $4,000 add loiter add loiter 51.0.46=68.6m T - 20.2 mT (Orion) - 5 m T (L3 PMR) = 43.4 mT 43002 kg, Cargo Capability 12.9 mT 42500 $2,000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 * L3 Reserves applied to Ares-V and Altair, % Lunar Surface Access Altair Masses include 860 kg spacecraft adapter $0 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24 FY26 FY28 FY30 Fiscal Year CxAT_Lunar TIP 06 May 2008 3 May 21st, 2008 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED (SBU) Page 56 ♦ Risk ♦ Operations / Extensibility • LOC / LOM • Facilities impacts • Technical performance risk • Operational flows • Schedule risk • Mars feed-forward • Commonality Ground Systems Discriminators Trade Studies Attacked Risk Drivers of Minimal Functional Vehicle (aborts were “off the table”) ROM Development Costs thru 2020 3,500,000 Preliminary Results subject to revision during close‐out 1 in 7 Results do not include placeholders 3,000,000 CONSTELLATION GROUND OPERATIONS VIE Task Option Risk Build‐Up  by Subsystem 3.00E‐01 2,500,000 SRPE A  2.50E‐01 2,000,000 SPE 1,500,000 2.00E‐01 LPE MMOD Life Support 1,000,000 1.50E‐01 Thermal MLE LOC Propulsion Power Avionics 500,000 1.00E‐01 Operations LDAC 2 0 Baseline 45.0.2 51.00.40 51.00.46 51.00.47 51.00.48 5.00E‐02 Increasing Mass for LOC/LOM mitigation 0.00E+00 Baseline 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1274 : 1273  : LDAC‐2 Design Mass Increase [kg] 18 For NASA Internal Use Only 11 Page 23
  • 24. Stochastic Margins Analysis @TLI kg Calculated Gross Capability f ( PAres −V I sp , mi , j ,t , Δvt , L) t PM Reserve (Ares-V) Most Likely Gross Req’d Del Capability† Capability (Ares-V) PgM Reserve TLI Stack Control Mass t PM Reserve (Altair + Orion + SA) g (M TLI mi , j ,t ,L) Predicted Mass* Expected Total Mass Total Margin (Altair + Orion + SA) (Altair + Orion + SA) MGA (Altair + Orion + SA) Base Mass** TLI Stack Control Mass Orion 20,185 kg Altair 45,000 kg* *including 900 kg adapter ♦ Stochastic analysis focused around trans-lunar injection (TLI) Page 24
  • 25. PDFs for Ares-V Delivery Capability PDF for Ares-V Delivery Capability (Various Designs) 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 Probability/mt 0.05 Ares 51.0.39 Ares 51.0.48 0.04 Ares 51.0.47 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 mt PDF with the 95th percentile at 65.2 mt and the 5th PDF with the 95th percentile at 74.7 mt, the 5th percentile at percentile at 62 mt, developed from a Monte Carlo 69.7 mt, and some negative skewness. This was developed analysis by SpaceWorks Engineering. using engineering judgment. Page 25
  • 26. CDFs for Ares-V Delivery Capability CDF for Ares-V Delivery Capability (Various Designs) 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Probability Ares 51.0.39 0.5 Ares 51.0.48 Ares 51.0.47 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 mt Page 26
  • 27. Ares 51.0.48 and Various Altair ΔV Capabilities 27
  • 28. Ares 51.0.47 and Various Altair ΔV Capabilities 28
  • 29. Probabilities of Having Adequate Margin: By Launch Vehicle and Cargo for Sortie and Outpost Missions Critical Probability for Various LVs and Altair Loadings 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 Stochastic margins Stochastic margins assessment indicates assessment indicates 0.6 high probability of having high probability of having Probability adequate Program/Project adequate Program/Project 0.5 margins and reserve margins and reserve 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 DM Cargo/PMR (In Excess of 500 kg) Ares 51.0.39 + Altair 804-D @ 891 m/s Ares 51.0.48 + Altair 804-D @ 891 m/s Ares 51.0.47 + Altair 804-D @ 891 m/s Ares 51.0.48 + Altair 804-D @ 950 m/s Ares 51.0.48 + Altair 804-D @ 1000 m/s Page 29
  • 30. Lunar Transportation Architecture Summary ♦ Ares-V • Ares-V 51.0.48, maximizes commonality between Lunar and Initial Capabilities: − 6 engine core, 5.5 segment PBAN steel case booster − Provides architecture closure with additional margin − High commonality with Ares I • Continue to study the benefits/risk of improved performance of Ares-V 51.0.47 ♦ Altair • Robust capability to support Lunar Outpost Missions: − Optimize for crew missions (500 kg + airlock with crew) − Lander cargo delivery: ~ 14,500 kg in cargo only mode • Size the system for global access while allowing future mission and system flexibility − Size Altair tanks for 1,000 m/s LOI delta-v − Size for an additional 4 days of Low-Lunar Orbit loiter ♦ Orion • Continue to mature Orion vehicle concept • Maintain strong emphasis on mass control − Continue to hold Orion control mass to 20,185 kg at TLI • Maintain emphasis on evolution of Orion Block 2 to support lunar Outpost missions
  • 31. Lunar Architecture Technical Summary ♦ The Constellation Program has completed extensive design, cost and risk analysis studies of lunar transportation options and developed an adequately closed Point of Departure (POD) transportation architecture for the CxP Lunar Capability including capabilities to: • Deliver and return crew to the surface of the moon for short durations, Human Lunar Return (HLR) capability • Enable establishment of a lunar outpost architecture • Support a range of mission campaigns and possible lunar surface architecture options ♦ Ares, Altair, Orion, EVA and GOP have completed extensive design, performance, cost and risk analysis to establish this baseline ♦ Lunar Surface Systems (LSS) has provided a feasible set of surface system configurations, vehicles and operational concepts to support the validation of the transportation system This is a POD transportation architecture baseline not the final design Page 31
  • 32. Introduction/Takeaway ♦ Experience has shown us that integrated architecture assessments are crucial for establishing stable configurations that meet performance, cost and risk goals ♦ Isolated, “stovepiped” elements designs (i.e., Orion, Altair, Ares, etc.) anchored only by “control masses” derived from a reference mission are insufficient. ♦ Integrated architecture assessments allow for: • Mission-level trades and optimization ensuring efficient vehicle designs • Appropriate allocation of vehicle design margins • Architecture-level functional allocations eliminating “I forgots” ♦ Details on the performance of the architecture elements and how they operate together is critical to maintaining a viable architecture 32
  • 33. Back Ups June 18 - 20, 2008 Section 13: Architecture Summary and Next Steps Page 33
  • 34. System and Mission Recommendation 50000 6 l C C po ra Ares 51.0.47 51.0.47--Option Ares-V 51.0.47 Option Ares-V m • • 6-RS68B Te 6-RS68B % • • 55Segment Composite SRBs 50 Global access achieved Segment Composite SRBs Global access achieved with reduce temporal with reduce temporal A coverage (not anytime) coverage (not anytime) and extended loiter and extended loiter (notional) Altair Mass (kg) (notional) S 6 S B Extended Loiter D 45000 Ares-V Recommendation: Ares 51.0.48 D Ares-V Recommendation: 51.0.48 C 51.0.48 • • 6-RS68B 6-RS68B • • 5.5 Segment Steel Reusable 5.5 Segment Steel Reusable Altair Recommendation: Altair Recommendation: SRBs SRBs • • Sized for 1000 m/s, propellants Sized for 1000 m/s, propellants Loaded for 950 m/s Loaded for 950 m/s • • Sized for 55days total LLO Sized for days total LLO Loiter Loiter 40000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 † % Lunar Surface Access Additional Altair delta-v Transportation Cargo Degree Down Available Reserve @ TLI (t) (m/s) (Ares & G.O.) Cost % Surface Ares- of Ares (FY07 $M)* in V Access @ Ares-V ISS/ Cargo 50% Plom Lunar Only Altair Sized DDT&E Rec. Ares-V Temporal Common Load Mode Prog For ($M) ($M/yr) (t) Perform Total Reserve Margin A 51.0.47 1/59 Medium 1000 1000 +$1,556 +$303 14.6 2.3 5.0 6.5 50% 65% B 51.0.48 1/62 High 950 950 +$1,044 +$55 13.8 0.1 5.0 6.3 50% 50% C 51.0.48 1/62 High 1000 950 +$1,044 +$55 14.6** 1.6 5.0 4.2 40% 50% D 51.0.48 1/62 High 1000 950 +$1,044 +$55 14.7** 1.2 5.0 4.3 40% 70% * Additional cost as compared to the 51.0.39 PPBE budget submittal † Coverage based on coarse trajectory scans across the Metonic cycle. ** P/L available with lander “kitted” for cargo mode and full prop loading Additional surface coverage expected with further mission design refinement. 34
  • 35. Mars Mission Profile 10 ~500 days on Mars In-Situ propellant production for Ascent 5 11 Crew: Ascent to high Mars Vehicle Aerocapture / Entry, Descent & Land Ascent orbit 4 Vehicle 12 Crew: Prepare for Trans- Earth Injection Aerocapture Habitat Lander into Mars Orbit 3 9 Crew: Use Orion to transfer to Habitat Lander; Cargo: then EDL on Mars 2 ~350 days to Mars 8 Crew: Jettison drop tank after trans-Mars injection ~180 days out to Mars 13 Crew: ~180 days Cargo back to Earth Crew Vehicles Transfer Vehicle 7 Ares-I Crew Launch 4 Ares-V Cargo 6 3 Ares-V Cargo Launches 1 Launches ~26 ~30 months months 14 Orion direct Earth return 35