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How Risk Management Can Make You
Healthy, Wealthy, and a Wiser Project Manager




    PM Challenge
   February 2009
  Daytona Beach, FL
                    Dr. James F. Stewart
      NASA Engineering and Safety Center Chief Engineer
                             at
            NASA Dryden Flight Research Center
Background


− Worked in the Aerospace Industry forty-four years over half the
  time in Project/Program Management and Managing Project
  Managers

− Presented first paper on Project Management in Nov. 1983   (1)



− Expanded it to a NASA Technical Memorandum in Dec. 1983      (2)



− Presented a paper on Risk Management at the NASA Academy of
  Program and Project Leadership (APPL) Forum of Master Project
  Managers Feb. 2005 (3)

− Implementing a formal Risk Management Process on a NASA
  Project/Program was described at last years (2008) Project
  Management Challenge in the presentation: Risk Management
  Getting Started (4)
Introduction


− How Project Managers identify and deal with risk is often the key to
  success or the reason for failure

− A complex multi-agency, multi-contractor, flight research will be
  reviewed

− Simple but effective methods of identifying and successfully meet all
  cost, schedule and technical objectives will be discussed

− Emphases is on how these techniques can be used to improve
  project success but examples of how probabilistic and risk
  management techniques can be used to improve personal success
  will be highlighted
The Self-Repairing Flight Control (SRFC) Project
The Self-Repairing Flight Control (SRFC) Project was a technical
success(5). Even more of a success was the project management of the
SRFC project: meeting cost, schedule, and technical objectives.
Stewart.james
SRFCS Project Highlights
- Air Force Requirements
  • Fixed Budget
  • Firm Flight Date
  • Specific Flight Objectives

- NASA Responsibilities
  • Develop Agreement with Air Force
  • Develop contact with McAir
    and subcontracts
  • Modify F-15 HIDEC Aircraft
  • Manage the project, contracts and
    technical government lead

- Development Needed
  • GE: Reconfiguration Strategy
  • ALPHATECH: Failure Detection
     and Isolation
  • ENSCO: On-board Maintenance Diagnostics
  • McAir: Position Pilot Alert
  • McAir: Integration of System
  • NASA: Development and implementation
     of aircraft modifications
  • NASA: Aircraft Checkout with SRFC System
  • NASA: Flight Test
Sample Schedule

Project   1       2   3    4    5   6   7   8       9   10   11   12

              2
Item A

                            3
Item B

                                    1
Item C

                                                4
Item D

                                                                  2
Item E
Sample Schedule with Risk Identified
                                                                   Expected   Min   Max
                                                                    Value

                                                                    2         1      3
                                                                    3         2      4
Project       1     2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11   12    1         .5     4
                                                                    4         2      6
                                                                    2         1      3

Item A                                                              12        6.5    20




Item B


Item C


Item D


Item E




          Uncertainty
The Project Managers Needs to Develop the
Schedule with the Team (Persons Doing the Task)

- Make sure the team thinks of the schedule as probabilistic

        • Set Schedule Lengths
                » Expected
                » Minimum
                » Maximum

                » Identify expected schedule
                » Identify what it takes to make minimum schedule
                » Identify what could occur to cause the maximum schedule

        If these conditions occur, what are the options?
        If these conditions occur, how do we minimize the effect?
Examples of Risk Management
                   for the SRFC Project
− Search for and locate risks before they become
  problems
    • Phase O flight test flown in March 1989 to test
      different implementation methods of the expert
      maintenance diagnostics

− Convert risk into useable information for
  determining priorities and making decisions
    • Early installation and checkout of the Rolm Hawk
      computer that was used for most of the SRFC
      software
    • Early aircraft modification replacing the
      mechanical actuators with electric serves

− Translate risk into planning decisions and
  mitigation action plans
    • When the only Rolm Hawk computer at Dryden
      broke we had a plan in place to get a spare, that
      was at McAir, shipped overnight and received it
      before start of business the next day
    • When technical problems occurred on flight critical
      software at General Electric we had a plan in place
      to insure successful software development
Accomplishments

- SRFC Project met technical objectives and accomplished the
  objectives on schedule and cost

- Air Force needed to fly by end of calendar year 89
         • Flight 1 was on 12/12/89
         • Had 4 flights by end of year
         • Completed 25 flights and 42.9 flight hours
                  » Performed more flights than required
                  » Performed more flight hours than required

- Had to be completed by end of April, not to impact the next Project
  Performance Seeking Controls (PSC) schedule
         • Completed last flight 04/03/90

- As for the Budget
         • Finished the project $4,000 under budget
Summary

- Schedule may appear deterministic but there always probabilistic

- Adjust for risk if you can

- Use the risk identification process to your advantages in managing
  the project

- As part of risk identification (make sure person’s doing the work are
  involved)
        • Identify ways to reduce risk
        • Identify options
Things to think about
− Make sure everyone knows why the project is being done

− Develop open communication with your team

− Include risks in communications as a topic at team meetings

− Use your team members expertise to make your estimates more reliable
  and to obtain buy-in

− Make sure your team thinks of the schedule as probabilistic at least in terms
  of expected, with minimum and maximum

− Have the team identify what could occur to cause the maximum schedule
   • if these conditions occur, what are the options
   • If these conditions occur, how do we minimize the effects

− Include team members in creating the schedule and in approval of the final
  schedule

− It takes less effort to prevent problems than to deal with them
How Risk Management Can Make You
    Healthy, Wealthy and Wise
Risk Management Can make You Healthy


− I have attended 3 or 4 medical
  conferences per year for more
  than 15 years

− Every conference talks about
  the risks and how to manage
  the risks

− Detailed studies have identified
  and quantified the risks for
  most major health problems
Risk Management Can Make You Healthy
− Risk factors have been identified for cancers, strokes, heart attacks, and
  other serious illness.

− By reducing the risk factors you can be healthier and live longer.

− You could identify each risk and reduce each risk. One approach has been
  offered by Dr. Michael Roizen M.D. in his book “The Real Age Makeover”.

− You can not change your calendar age but you can change how much your
  body has aged and how to reduce aging and even reverse your aging based
  on risk factors and choices you’ve made for yourself.

− You can identify risk factors and how to reduce your risks, improve your
  health and increase your chances of living longer.
Risk Management Can Make You Wealthy


  Statistical measurements used in Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) to help
  investors determine the risk-reward profile. (definitions from Investopedia financial dictionary)


− Alpha: a measure of performance on a risk-adjusted basis

− Beta: a measure of volatility, or systematic risk, of a security or a portfolio in
  comparison to the market as a whole.

− Sharpe Ratio: a ratio developed by Nobel Laureate William F. Sharpe to
  measure risk-adjusted performance. The ratio tells us whether a portfolio’s
  returns are due to smart investment decisions or a result of excess risk.

− Monte Carlo Simulation: a problem solving technique used to approximate
  the probability of certain outcome by running multiple trail runs.
Risk Management Can Make You Wiser

1.   Stop thinking of the world as deterministic it is probabilistic

2.   Use the risk identification process to your advantage in managing
     your health, your wealth and your projects

3.   After today you should look at the risk you take and determined
     how to manage those risk to make wiser decisions
References
1.   Project Management System for the X-29A Flight Test Program by
     James F. Stewart and Carol A. Bauer NASA, AIAA/SETP/IES
     second flight test conference, Nov. 1983

2.   Project Management Techniques for highly integrated programs
     NASA Technical Memorandum 86023 by James F. Stewart and
     Carol A. Bauer, Dec. 1983

3.   Stochastic Processes and Exogenous Variables or How to Improve
     Project Performance by James F. Stewart NASA APPL Forum of
     Master Project Managers, Feb. 2008

4.   Risk Management Getting Started by Cynthia Calhoun, NASA
     Project Management Challenge 2009

5.   Self-Repairing Flight Control, NASA Dryden Historical Study No. 1
     by James E. Tomsyko Edited by Christian Gelzer, published by
     NASA Dryden Flight Research Center, Oct. 2003

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Stewart.james

  • 1. How Risk Management Can Make You Healthy, Wealthy, and a Wiser Project Manager PM Challenge February 2009 Daytona Beach, FL Dr. James F. Stewart NASA Engineering and Safety Center Chief Engineer at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center
  • 2. Background − Worked in the Aerospace Industry forty-four years over half the time in Project/Program Management and Managing Project Managers − Presented first paper on Project Management in Nov. 1983 (1) − Expanded it to a NASA Technical Memorandum in Dec. 1983 (2) − Presented a paper on Risk Management at the NASA Academy of Program and Project Leadership (APPL) Forum of Master Project Managers Feb. 2005 (3) − Implementing a formal Risk Management Process on a NASA Project/Program was described at last years (2008) Project Management Challenge in the presentation: Risk Management Getting Started (4)
  • 3. Introduction − How Project Managers identify and deal with risk is often the key to success or the reason for failure − A complex multi-agency, multi-contractor, flight research will be reviewed − Simple but effective methods of identifying and successfully meet all cost, schedule and technical objectives will be discussed − Emphases is on how these techniques can be used to improve project success but examples of how probabilistic and risk management techniques can be used to improve personal success will be highlighted
  • 4. The Self-Repairing Flight Control (SRFC) Project The Self-Repairing Flight Control (SRFC) Project was a technical success(5). Even more of a success was the project management of the SRFC project: meeting cost, schedule, and technical objectives.
  • 6. SRFCS Project Highlights - Air Force Requirements • Fixed Budget • Firm Flight Date • Specific Flight Objectives - NASA Responsibilities • Develop Agreement with Air Force • Develop contact with McAir and subcontracts • Modify F-15 HIDEC Aircraft • Manage the project, contracts and technical government lead - Development Needed • GE: Reconfiguration Strategy • ALPHATECH: Failure Detection and Isolation • ENSCO: On-board Maintenance Diagnostics • McAir: Position Pilot Alert • McAir: Integration of System • NASA: Development and implementation of aircraft modifications • NASA: Aircraft Checkout with SRFC System • NASA: Flight Test
  • 7. Sample Schedule Project 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2 Item A 3 Item B 1 Item C 4 Item D 2 Item E
  • 8. Sample Schedule with Risk Identified Expected Min Max Value 2 1 3 3 2 4 Project 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 .5 4 4 2 6 2 1 3 Item A 12 6.5 20 Item B Item C Item D Item E Uncertainty
  • 9. The Project Managers Needs to Develop the Schedule with the Team (Persons Doing the Task) - Make sure the team thinks of the schedule as probabilistic • Set Schedule Lengths » Expected » Minimum » Maximum » Identify expected schedule » Identify what it takes to make minimum schedule » Identify what could occur to cause the maximum schedule If these conditions occur, what are the options? If these conditions occur, how do we minimize the effect?
  • 10. Examples of Risk Management for the SRFC Project − Search for and locate risks before they become problems • Phase O flight test flown in March 1989 to test different implementation methods of the expert maintenance diagnostics − Convert risk into useable information for determining priorities and making decisions • Early installation and checkout of the Rolm Hawk computer that was used for most of the SRFC software • Early aircraft modification replacing the mechanical actuators with electric serves − Translate risk into planning decisions and mitigation action plans • When the only Rolm Hawk computer at Dryden broke we had a plan in place to get a spare, that was at McAir, shipped overnight and received it before start of business the next day • When technical problems occurred on flight critical software at General Electric we had a plan in place to insure successful software development
  • 11. Accomplishments - SRFC Project met technical objectives and accomplished the objectives on schedule and cost - Air Force needed to fly by end of calendar year 89 • Flight 1 was on 12/12/89 • Had 4 flights by end of year • Completed 25 flights and 42.9 flight hours » Performed more flights than required » Performed more flight hours than required - Had to be completed by end of April, not to impact the next Project Performance Seeking Controls (PSC) schedule • Completed last flight 04/03/90 - As for the Budget • Finished the project $4,000 under budget
  • 12. Summary - Schedule may appear deterministic but there always probabilistic - Adjust for risk if you can - Use the risk identification process to your advantages in managing the project - As part of risk identification (make sure person’s doing the work are involved) • Identify ways to reduce risk • Identify options
  • 13. Things to think about − Make sure everyone knows why the project is being done − Develop open communication with your team − Include risks in communications as a topic at team meetings − Use your team members expertise to make your estimates more reliable and to obtain buy-in − Make sure your team thinks of the schedule as probabilistic at least in terms of expected, with minimum and maximum − Have the team identify what could occur to cause the maximum schedule • if these conditions occur, what are the options • If these conditions occur, how do we minimize the effects − Include team members in creating the schedule and in approval of the final schedule − It takes less effort to prevent problems than to deal with them
  • 14. How Risk Management Can Make You Healthy, Wealthy and Wise
  • 15. Risk Management Can make You Healthy − I have attended 3 or 4 medical conferences per year for more than 15 years − Every conference talks about the risks and how to manage the risks − Detailed studies have identified and quantified the risks for most major health problems
  • 16. Risk Management Can Make You Healthy − Risk factors have been identified for cancers, strokes, heart attacks, and other serious illness. − By reducing the risk factors you can be healthier and live longer. − You could identify each risk and reduce each risk. One approach has been offered by Dr. Michael Roizen M.D. in his book “The Real Age Makeover”. − You can not change your calendar age but you can change how much your body has aged and how to reduce aging and even reverse your aging based on risk factors and choices you’ve made for yourself. − You can identify risk factors and how to reduce your risks, improve your health and increase your chances of living longer.
  • 17. Risk Management Can Make You Wealthy Statistical measurements used in Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) to help investors determine the risk-reward profile. (definitions from Investopedia financial dictionary) − Alpha: a measure of performance on a risk-adjusted basis − Beta: a measure of volatility, or systematic risk, of a security or a portfolio in comparison to the market as a whole. − Sharpe Ratio: a ratio developed by Nobel Laureate William F. Sharpe to measure risk-adjusted performance. The ratio tells us whether a portfolio’s returns are due to smart investment decisions or a result of excess risk. − Monte Carlo Simulation: a problem solving technique used to approximate the probability of certain outcome by running multiple trail runs.
  • 18. Risk Management Can Make You Wiser 1. Stop thinking of the world as deterministic it is probabilistic 2. Use the risk identification process to your advantage in managing your health, your wealth and your projects 3. After today you should look at the risk you take and determined how to manage those risk to make wiser decisions
  • 19. References 1. Project Management System for the X-29A Flight Test Program by James F. Stewart and Carol A. Bauer NASA, AIAA/SETP/IES second flight test conference, Nov. 1983 2. Project Management Techniques for highly integrated programs NASA Technical Memorandum 86023 by James F. Stewart and Carol A. Bauer, Dec. 1983 3. Stochastic Processes and Exogenous Variables or How to Improve Project Performance by James F. Stewart NASA APPL Forum of Master Project Managers, Feb. 2008 4. Risk Management Getting Started by Cynthia Calhoun, NASA Project Management Challenge 2009 5. Self-Repairing Flight Control, NASA Dryden Historical Study No. 1 by James E. Tomsyko Edited by Christian Gelzer, published by NASA Dryden Flight Research Center, Oct. 2003