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6RussBowman_NICHI_BusinessSummit
1. The Triple Threat
(to Homeland and National Security)
Russ Bowman, JD
Northeastern University
Center for Resilience Studies
2. Mission: To play a leadership role in
building societal resilience by learning
from disasters and teaching and advancing
the lessons learned.
3. Resilience
The ability to
– prepare for and
– adapt to changing conditions
and the ability to
– withstand and
– recover rapidly from disruptions (“all hazards”).
President Policy Directive (PDD) 21
“Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience,” February 12, 2013
7. Super Storm Sandy
AP Layston Badham, Morristowngreen.com
John O'Boyle, The Star-Ledger
8. Key Lessons “Learned”
• The first responders are always local; citizens are
indispensible strategic assets; but….
• Large-scale disasters impact regional systems
and, therefore, require enhanced
capability/capacity to undertake all preparedness
“missions” at the regional level.
• Resilience requires better understanding of
interdependencies and cascading effects.
10. Resilience-Centric Approach to
Infrastructure Improvement
• ID critical functions
• Map or model
(1) components & operations, (2) interdependencies,
(3) geographic boundaries & (4) governance
• Evaluate vulnerability & consequences
• Distinguish between essential & full function
Identify and adopt resilience design features, processes,
and protocols that mitigate the risk of disruption, and
speed response / recovery when mitigation measures fail.
11. Performance
(Percent)
100
80
60
40
20
0
D R
B
A
BT
C
Time
ResilienceParameters
D = DisruptiontoSystem
R = Capabilitytoattenuateor mitigateeffect
priorto or attimeofevent
A = Capabilitytoabsorbanddegrade
B = Bottom out; ThresholdLevel
BT = Lengthoftimeatbottom
C = Capabilitytoreconstitutebackto initiallevel
T1 T2 T3
Source: J. Kahan, et. Al., Risk and Resilience: Exploring the Relationship, Homeland Security Studies
and Analysis Institute, Nov 20, 2010 & Mary Ellen Hynes, “Extreme Loading of Physical
Infrastructure” presentation at the 4th DHS University Network Summit, March 11, 2010.
Resilience, Graphically
13. National Security?
• Threat = Intent x Capability
• Resilience Reduces National Security Risk
– Lowering Consequences Undermines Intent
– Lessening Vulnerability
Requires Adversary To Acquire More Capability
14. Improving Resilience - Takeaways
Greater emphasis / investment is needed in
– forecasting
– modeling
– monitoring and
– assessing
that
– support / inform prevention / protection &
mitigation
– speed response & recovery
15. Resilience and Competitiveness
People will chose to invest in companies and live
in areas that possess resilience and gravitate
away from those that do not.
Prospective and retrospective;
Resilience in a broader sense: both robustness, and ability to “bounce back”
Current Policy Guidance
Evolution of preparedness post 9/11 in 60 seconds
HSPD 5 / HSPD 8
standardized (ICS)
inter-governmental
National Response Plan / Later National Response Framework..
Focus has been on “response” – so we have a little more data / study on that front (although not as much as you’d think…)
Focus of my efforts (so I’ll begin there, briefly, before coming to the focus of today’s summit)
In today’s “built” environment, even if you are agnostic to “climate change” science, these facts deserve your attention.
Left: Orange Beach, Alabama (some of the 650+ miles of oiled beach)
Right: Taste of Chicago. “Perception is Reality”
Inter-dependencies: Tourism, Commercial (and Recreational) Fishing, Offshore Drilling (Energy), Catering, Transportation
Conventional wisdom is all disasters are local. Experience shows that, increasingly, this is no longer the case.
Studying Response Policy = Learning to Better Play the Hand We are Dealt.
Power of today’s focus: Learning to deal ourselves a better hand!
Problem with Response: Crisis-Driven Policy Improvements. (Sandy is a “Teaching Moment” / Policy Window)
BUT, need to ensure we are not “Fighting the Last War.”
We need to continue those efforts. But, simultaneously, we need to do more. That’s the point of the shift in disaster response policy we have seen….
PPD-8; broadened the scope of preparation to the 5 missions areas, and broadened the target audience to the “whole community” of actors.
Of the triple threat, which threat can we most affect? Thus, the focus of the balance of my comments..
What are we trying to accomplish?
A shallower negative slope at A - “capability” to absorb / graceful (intelligent) degradation (engineering term)
Steeper positive slope at C – “capability” to reconstitute
Local, regional, and national competitiveness will increasingly be defined by the level of resilience that communities and countries have to withstand, nimbly respond, and rapidly recover from shocks and disruptive events.
