An in-depth analysis of Apple’s Blowout Q4 results
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Apple q4'14 Results Commentary
1. Apple Results Q4 2014
Summary and Commentary
Note: Apple Q4 = Calendar Q3
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2. Aquilla
Key Data Points
Wall Street Reported YoY
Revenue $ 39.9 B $ 42.1 B + 12%
Net Income $ 8.5 B + 13%
EPS (Diluted) (vs Adjusted) $1.31 $1.42 + 20%
iPhone Units 37.9 M 39.3 M + 16%
iPhone ASP $603 4%
iPad Units 13.2 M 12.3 M - 13%
iPad ASP $432 -2%
Mac Units 4.8 M 5.5 M + 21%
iPod Units 2.3 M 2.6 M -24%
iTunes/SW/Svcs $ $ 4.7 M $ 4.6 M + 8%
Accessories $ $ 1.5 M $ 1.5 M + 13%
Gross Margin 38.0% 38.0% + 1 point
Cash & Long Term Securities 155 B -6% *
Q1 Revenue Guidance $ 63.5 B $ 63.5 - 66.5 B FY13: $57.6 B
Q4 Gross Margin Guidance 37.5% 37.5 - 38.5% FY13: 37.9%
* QoQ
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35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
Source: Apple Results
Net Income
Net Income Up 13%
•Net Income came in at
$8.5B, or 20% of
revenues, reflecting
Apple’s continuing
ability to command a
price premium over the
increasingly low-margin
Android business
•With the iPhone 6 set to
dominate Apple’s mix
this quarter, there is no
reason to expect this
performance to falter
Comparative
Net Income
CQ3 2014
Google
Samsung IM CQ2
Microsoft CQ2
0%
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Q1
'07
Q2
'07
Q3
'07
Q4
'07
Q1
'08
Q2
'08
Q3
'08
Q4
'08
Q1
'09
Q2
'09
Q3
'09
Q4
'09
Q1
'10
Q2
'10
Q3
'10
Q4
'10
Q1
'11
Q2
'11
Q3
'11
Q4
'11
Q1
'12
Q2
'12
Q3
'12
Q4
'12
Q1
'13
Q2
'13
Q3
'13
Q4
'13
Q1
'14
Q2
'14
Q3
'14
Q4
'14
Net Income
(%)
Net Income
($B)
Apple Net Income
Net Income B$ Net Income %
4. Aquilla
Source: Apple Results
Cash, Investments & Capital Return
Capital Return Program Grows
•Apple generated $13.3B of cash from
180
operations in the Quarter, bringing
the full year total to just under $60B
•Stock buybacks and dividends
160
returned $20B to shareholders during
the quarter, reaching $56B for the
140
year
•Long and short term cash holdings
120
declined by $9B in the quarter, but
the company still has over $150B in
100
cash
•Much of the cash remains outside the
80
US, held there for tax reasons
60
40
20
0
Q1
'07
Q2
'07
Q3
'07
Q4
'07
Q1
'08
Q2
'08
Q3
'08
Q4
'08
Q1
'09
Q2
'09
Q3
'09
Q4
'09
Q1
'10
Q2
'10
Q3
'10
Q4
'10
Q1
'11
Q2
'11
Q3
'11
Q4
'11
Q1
'12
Q2
'12
Q3
'12
Q4
'12
Q1
'13
Q2
'13
Q3
'13
Q4
'13
Q1
'14
Q2
'14
Q3
'14
Q4
'14
(B$)
Cash & Capital Return
Short Term Cash B$ Long Term Cash B$
Cash Generated B$ Capital Return B$
5. Accessories M$
iTunes/SW/Svcs M$
iPod M$
Mac M$
iPad M$
Aquilla
Source: Apple Results
Revenue Mix by Product Line
iPhone dominates
•iPhone now generates
56% of Apple’s
revenues
•A strong quarter for
Mac moved it to 16%
of the mix, moving
back ahead of iPad
•iPad was the big loser,
declining a further
14%
•iTunes/SW/Services
continues to grow in
line with the overall
rate
•iOS hardware
dropped back to just
under 70% of
revenues
Most recent
$ Share $ YoY
4% 13%
11% 8%
1% -28%
16% 18%
13% -14%
56% 21% iPhone M$
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Q1
'07
Q2
'07
Q3
'07
Q4
'07
Q1
'08
Q2
'08
Q3
'08
Q4
'08
Q1
'09
Q2
'09
Q3
'09
Q4
'09
Q1
'10
Q2
'10
Q3
'10
Q4
'10
Q1
'11
Q2
'11
Q3
'11
Q4
'11
Q1
'12
Q2
'12
Q3
'12
Q4
'12
Q1
'13
Q2
'13
Q3
'13
Q4
'13
Q1
'14
Q2
'14
Q3
'14
Q4
'14
Product Line Revenue Mix
6. iPod Trailing 12 months - Terminal? Tracking the trailing 12 months (current and 3
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previous Quarters) eliminates seasonality, and
gives a better indication of the longer term trends
75,000
60,000
45,000
30,000
15,000
0
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Q1
'07
Q2
'07
Q3
'07
Q4
'07
Q1
'08
Q2
'08
Q3
'08
Q4
'08
Q1
'09
Q2
'09
Q3
'09
Q4
'09
Q1
'10
Q2
'10
Q3
'10
Q4
'10
Q1
'11
Q2
'11
Q3
'11
Q4
'11
Q1
'12
Q2
'12
Q3
'12
Q4
'12
Q1
'13
Q2
'13
Q3
'13
Q4
'13
Q1
'14
Q2
'14
Q3
'14
Q4
'14
Trailing 12m
Units (000s)
Units
(000s)
iPod Units
iPod Units kU iPod Units Trailing 12m kU
Source: Apple Results
7. Aquilla
Source: Apple Results
Geo Share with Retail - 12m Trailing
Americas/Europe Ticked Up
•Trailing 12 months shows clearly
where Apple’s growth came from -
Americas and Europe
•Much of this was driven by iPhone 6
availability, or lack of, by region
•China was flat, but with iPhone 6
now on sale, on all carriers, it has
amassive upside
•Japan shows signs of flattening
•APAC is small, but under-performing
Tracking the trailing 12 months (current and 3
previous Quarters) eliminates seasonality, and
gives a better indication of the longer term trends
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Q1
'06
Q2
'06
Q3
'06
Q4
'06
Q1
'07
Q2
'07
Q3
'07
Q4
'07
Q1
'08
Q2
'08
Q3
'08
Q4
'08
Q1
'09
Q2
'09
Q3
'09
Q4
'09
Q1
'10
Q2
'10
Q3
'10
Q4
'10
Q1
'11
Q2
'11
Q3
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Q4
'11
Q1
'12
Q2
'12
Q3
'12
Q4
'12
Q1
'13
Q2
'13
Q3
'13
Q4
'13
Q1
'14
Q2
'14
Q3
'14
Q4
'14
Revenue
$M
Geo Growth 12m Trailing Revenue Inc Retail
Americas EMEIA Greater China Japan APAC
8. Apple’s Q4 Results Analysis
These popular slides cover an in-depth analysis of Apple’s Q4 results
The slides shown are an introduction
To receive the full set, including
charts, commentary, interpretation and outlook
plus all slides in full colour
contact
Aquilla Europe
nick@aquilla-europe.com
Aquilla