The document provides an analysis of real estate market trends in the New River Valley region of Virginia in the first quarter of 2012. It finds: 1) Home sales in the region increased compared to 2007 levels, though inventory and median prices decreased slightly. 2) The Blacksburg sub-market showed mostly steady trends, with flat single-family sales and increasing condo median prices and contracts. 3) Christiansburg saw declines in total sales, median prices, and sales volume compared to the previous quarter.

1. New River Valley
Q1 2012
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2. Still Some Work To Do.
As news starts to trickle out from other parts of the country that some local real estate markets are shifting from Buyer’s
Markets to Seller’s Markets, there’s definitely reason for some excitement. After dealing with extremely difficult market
conditions over the last several years, you can’t blame anyone for waiting in anticipation that our local real estate market
has finally turned. Unfortunately, the New River Valley isn’t quite there, yet.
That being said, there are some positive signs starting to trickle out of the core New River Valley sub-market (Blacksburg)
and the overall NRV region. Q1 2012 sales for the overall New River Valley were at their highest point since 2007. And
while median prices for single family homes were down slightly (about 4%), single family inventory levels fell from 1924 to
1792 homes for sale. This represents a decrease of 6.9%. In addition, total Months of Inventory for single family homes on
the market was also reduced by 12.1%.
Attached home sales for the overall NRV didn’t bode quite as well, but didn’t perform poorly either. While sales were off
slightly from Q1 2011, inventory levels were also down significantly. Total inventory fell 33.5% and Months of Inventory
dropped 31%. That large reduction in year-over-year inventory is a great sign.
Real estate recoveries start at the core of markets and New River Valley’s core is Blacksburg. Blacksburg’s numbers in Q1
were steady. Sales were down ever-so-slightly, but were in line with the past several Q1s. There’s something to be said for
consistency. Other indicators of the Blacksburg real estate market were good. Median prices for single family and
condominiums were up (attached median prices were off slightly). Single family home sales in Blacksburg were flat, but
condominiums seem to be geared for a comeback.
The real recovery in the New River Valley will happen, but we’re not quite there yet. The biggest roadblock to any real
estate market recovery is inventory levels (supply). Until inventory and months of inventory reach lower levels in the
marketplace, the market truly can’t bounce back. There was a drop in total inventory and months of inventory in just about
every category throughout the New River Valley in Q1. That is definitely a step in the right direction.
We also keep a close eye on contracts written and pending sales. These are great indicators for the upcoming months and
are the best way to forecast the future of the market. Looking at the Blacksburg core market, contracts written were up in
Q1 - once again, a good sign.
Numbers aside, we’re hearing stories from our team and other local real estate professionals that make us feel as though
we are starting to turn a corner. Q1 2012 saw the return of multiple offers, realistic sellers, and an increase in investor
activity. It can easily be argued that these stories from the ‘trenches’ are even more valuable than raw numbers in
determining the future of the market.
Overall, the expected job growth, construction starts, and the continued impact that Virginia Tech and the Research Park
have on the New River Valley will ultimately lead to more sales activity. However, don’t expect the New River Valley real
estate market to turn around overnight. Considering the high inventory levels in many of the market sub-categories, this
will be a slow recovery.
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3. New River Valley MSA Market Snapshot
While the overall five year trend for the MSA trends downward, year-over-year sales are on the rise. Total Q1 sales for the New River Valley
totaled the highest Q1 levels since 2007. This marks the third straight quarter where year-over-year sales have been up. Single family home sales
jumped from 214 in Q1 2011 to 227 in Q1 2012 - a 6.1% increase. This comes off a 4.4% increase from Q1 2010 to Q1 2011. Attached home
sales, however, were off 3.6% (from 28 to 27).
Five Year Trend of Sales Activity (Number of Sales) 5 YEAR TREND
800
600
400
200
0
Q2 ’07 Q3 ’07 Q4 ’07 Q1 ’08 Q2 ’08 Q3 ’08 Q4 ’08 Q1 ’09 Q2 ’09 Q3 ’09 Q4 ’09 Q1 ’10 Q2 ’10 Q3 ’10 Q4 ’10 Q1 ’11 Q2 ’11 Q3 ’11 Q4 ’11 Q1 ’12
Median prices in Q1 were down for both the single family and attached categories. Single family home median prices in the MSA were down 4.9%,
while attached median prices were off 9.4% from Q1 2011. The total volume of real estate transactions in the New River Valley was up in Q1:
single family home total sales volume increased 7.1%, which represents an increase of over $2,500,000 from Q1 2011. Attached home sales
volume fell from approximately $4.7m to $4.3m (down 8.2%). Inventory levels remain high, however. There are some positive signs with both
total inventory and Months of Inventory numbers coming down significantly from last Q1. Months of Inventory for single family homes across the
NRV fell 12.2%, while attached fell 31%. These lower inventory levels must continue to come down for a recovery to take place.
MSA (Entire New River Valley MSA)
Total Sold Average Median Total Total Months of
Volume Sale Price Sale Price Sales Inventory Inventory
Single Family
Q1 2012 $38,572,456 $169,923 $141,000 227 1792 23.68
Change 7.1% 0.9% -4.9% 6.1% -6.9% -12.2%
Q1 2011 $36,030,843 $168,368 $148,250 214 1924 26.97
Change 7.6% 3.1% 6.7% 4.4% 1.2% -3.0%
Q1 2010 $33,487,901 $163,356 $139,000 205 1901 27.82
Average Average Median Total Total Months of
List Price Sale Price Sale Price Sales Inventory Inventory
Q1 2012 $4,332,350 $160,457 $151,500 27 133 14.78
Attached
Change -8.2% -4.8% -9.4% -3.6% -33.5% -31.0%
Q1 2011 $4,717,210 $168,472 $167,250 28 200 21.43
Change 17.6% 5.0% 11.9% 12.0% -24.2% -32.4%
Q1 2010 $4,010,200 $160,408 $149,500 25 264 31.68
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4. Blacksburg (In Town Limits) Market Snapshot
Overall, the Blacksburg real estate market is showing some healthy signs. Q1 2012 sales were down slightly over Q1 2011: from 50 to 46.
However, the 46 total sales represents a significant increase over Q1 levels in both 2010 and 2009. Single family year-over-year home sales were
flat, condo sales were up (from 6 to 10) and attached sales were down fairly significantly (from 16 to 8). Total sales volume for both single family
and condos were up, while attached home sales volume dropped over 55%. Median prices for attached (-1.2%) and single family (+2.6%) stayed
relatively flat. However, median prices for Blacksburg condos increased 19.8%.
Five Year Trend of Sales Activity (Total Number of Sales) 5 YEAR TREND
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
Q2 ’07 Q3 ’07 Q4 ’07 Q1 ’08 Q2 ’08 Q3 ’08 Q4 ’08 Q1 ’09 Q2 ’09 Q3 ’09 Q4 ’09 Q1 ’10 Q2 ’10 Q3 ’10 Q4 ’10 Q1 ’11 Q2 ’11 Q3 ’11 Q4 ’11 Q1 ’12
Contracts Written in Q1 - typically an indicator of future sales - were up up for single family homes (+43.2%) and condominiums (+209.1%).
However, contracts written for attached homes were off 42.9% from Q1 2011. Clearly, condominiums in Blacksburg are starting to make a
comeback. Even though condo sales and median prices are up, the most significant number is the contracts written: up from 11 in Q1 2011 to 34
in Q1 2012. Expect Blacksburg condo sales to continue on an upward trend in Q2.
Total Average Median Total Total Average Median Total
Sales Volume Sale Price Sale Price Sales # Sales Volume Sale Price Sale Price Sales #
Q1 2012 7,602,600 271,521 237,475 28 Q1 2012 1,298,500 162,312 165,250 8
Single Family
Attached
Change 32.5% 13.6% 2.6% 16.7% Change 21.3% -9.0% -1.2% 33.3%
Q4 2011 5,737,630 239,068 231,365 24 Q4 2011 1,070,150 178,358 167,325 6
Q1 2012 7,602,600 271,521 237,475 28 Q1 2012 1,298,500 162,312 165,250 8
Change 4.9% 4.9% 2.7% 0.0% Change -55.3% -10.6% -4.5% -50.0%
Q1 2011 7,245,260 258,759 231,280 28 Q1 2011 2,904,660 181,541 173,000 16
Total Average Median Total Contracts Written
Sales Volume Sale Price Sale Price Sales #
Q1 2012 1,346,900 134,690 122,500 10 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Change
Change 204.7% 21.9% 19.8% 150.0%
Condos
Single Family 37 53 43.2%
Q4 2011 442,000 110,500 102,250 4
Q1 2012 1,346,900 134,690 122,500 10 Attached 28 16 -42.9%
Change 111.0% 26.6% 12.4% 66.7% Condos 11 34 209.1%
Q1 2011 638,200 106,367 109,000 6
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5. Blacksburg (In Town Limits) Market Snapshot (Part 2)
Blacksburg (In Town Limits) Sales by Type
22%
17% 61%
Single Family Attached Condos
Single family homes continue to make up the largest percentage of sales within Blacksburg Town Limits. Approximately 6 out of every 10 sales is
a single family home. Once again, the biggest change is the increase in the condominium market. Condos made up 22% of total sales in
Blacksburg, as compared to 17% for attached homes. Based on the contracts written in Q1, we anticipate that this gap will continue in the near
future. Buyers are clearly seeing values in the condo market and as financing for condominiums continues to loosen (albeit only slightly), the
lower price points of Blacksburg condos are proving to be attractive.
Blacksburg In Town Limits Percent of Sales by Price Range
Q1 ’12 7% 46% 28% 17% 2%
Q4 ’11 0% 6% 41% 44% 9%
Q3 ’11 7% 33% 34% 22% 4%
Q2 ’11 3% 31% 39% 26% 2%
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
0-100K 100K-200K 200K-300K 300k-500k Over 500K
Home sale price distribution gives a good indication on several market trends, including where the buyer demand lies. Over the last four quarters,
the $100k-$200k Blacksburg sub-market has seen steady growth - increasing from 31% in Q2 2011 to 46% in Q1 2012. That represents a
significant increase of over 50%. The below $100k market has also seen a fairly large increase. Subsequently, other price categories have
dropped. The relative percentage of home sales above $200,000 has dropped. $200k-$300k has fallen from almost 40% of the market to 28%,
while the $300k-$500k range has decreased from 26% to 17%.
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6. Christiansburg (In Town Limits) Market Snapshot
The Christiansburg real estate market lagged slightly in Q1 2012. Total sales in Q1 were down ever-so-slightly: from 47 to 45. However, this
marked the fourth straight decline in Q1 sales within Christiansburg. Single family home sales in Christiansburg dropped from 37 to 34 (-8.1%)
and condo sales were flat. Unlike Blacksburg, which saw a fairly significant decrease in Q1 attached home sales, attached home sales in
Christiansburg held relatively steady (8 sales in Q1 2011 vs. 9 sales in Q1 2012).
Five Year Trend of Sales Activity (Total Number of Sales) 5 YEAR TREND
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
Q2 ’07 Q3 ’07 Q4 ’07 Q1 ’08 Q2 ’08 Q3 ’08 Q4 ’08 Q1 ’09 Q2 ’09 Q3 ’09 Q4 ’09 Q1 ’10 Q2 ’10 Q3 ’10 Q4 ’10 Q1 ’11 Q2 ’11 Q3 ’11 Q4 ’11 Q1 ’12
Median prices were off across the board in Christiansburg: single family (-5.3%), attached (-5.3%), and condos (-35.7%) each showed declines.
Total sales volume for single family and condominiums in Christiansburg fell slightly. However, attached total volume showed a 12.8% increase.
More surprising than a year-over-year drop in sales and volume, Christiansburg Q1 2012 sales were also lower than Q4 2011 sales. Single family
homes were down 15% from Q4 and attached sales were 35.7% lower.
Total Average Median Total Total Average Median Total
Sales Volume Sale Price Sale Price Sales # Sales Volume Sale Price Sale Price Sales #
Q1 2012 6,099,900 179,409 162,000 34 Q1 2012 1,222,350 135,817 125,500 9
Single Family
Attached
Change -13.1% 2.2% -6.6% -15.0% Change -36.9% -1.8% -9.5% -35.7%
Q4 2011 7,022,450 175,561 173,500 40 Q4 2011 1,936,553 138,325 138,750 14
Q1 2012 6,099,900 179,409 162,000 34 Q1 2012 1,222,350 135,817 125,500 9
Change -3.1% 5.4% -5.3% -8.1% Change 12.8% 0.2% -5.3% 12.5%
Q1 2011 6,296,986 170,189 171,000 37 Q1 2011 1,083,950 135,494 132,500 8
Total Average Median Total Contracts Written
Sales Volume Sale Price Sale Price Sales #
Q1 2012 357,000 178,500 178,500 2 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Change
Change 55.2% -22.4% -22.4% 100.0%
Condos
Single Family 55 46 -16.36%
Q4 2011 230,000 230,000 230,000 1
Q1 2012 357,000 178,500 178,500 2 Attached 49 32 -34.69%
Change -35.7% -35.7% -35.7% 0.0%
Condos 0 3 NA
Q1 2011 555,316 277,658 277,658 2
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7. Christiansburg (In Town Limits) Market Snapshot (Part 2)
Christiansburg (In Town Limits) Sales by Type
4%
20%
76%
Single Family Attached Condos
The vast majority of home sales in Christiansburg continues to be single family homes. More than 3 out of every 4 sales are single family homes.
This percentage is representative of the overall market inventory in Christiansburg. Contracts written in Q1 were off fairly significantly in
Christiansburg also. While condo sales were up (from 0 last Q1 to 3 this past quarter), single family (-16.36%) and attached (-34.69%) contracts
written were down from Q1 2011.
Christiansburg (In Town Limits) Percent of Sales by Price Range
Q1 ’12 0% 7% 71% 18% 4%
Q4 ’11 0% 13% 64% 20% 4%
Q3 ’11 0% 12% 59% 22% 7%
Q2 ’11 0% 7% 66% 27% 1%
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
0-100K 100K-200K 200K-300K 300K-500K Over 500k
Like Blacksburg, Christiansburg has seen the most growth over the past year in the $100k-$200k price category. Total market share for this price
segment increased from 66% in Q2 2011 to 71% in Q1 2012. Sub-$100k sales saw a spike in Q3 and Q4 2011, but have settled back to similar
levels in Q1 2012 that they were in Q2 2011. $200k-$300k sales have steadily decreased over the last 12 months. Interestingly enough, $300k-
$500k sales have not fallen off much. Over $500,000 sales in Christiansburg are virtually non-existent.
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8. Montgomery County
Total Average Median Total
Sales Volume Sale Price Sale Price Sales #
Q1 2012 $6,934,950 $203,969 $191,500 34
Overall
Change -19.0% -19.0% -11.5% 0.0%
Q1 2011 $8,559,597 $251,752 $216,379 34
Change 50.7% -2.5% -11.3% 54.5%
Q1 2010 $5,679,317 $258,150 $244,000 22
After a 54% increase from 2010 to 2011, Montgomery County sales were flat in Q1 2012. Pending Contracts
However, most other indicators in this New River Vally sub-market were negative. Total volume
(-19%), average sales price (-19%) and median sales price (-11.5%) were all down double digits Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Change
from Q1 2011. Pending real estate sales contracts were relatively flat with the number
dropping from 21 to 20 this past quarter. Expect sales in Montgomery County to stay flat or 21 20 -4.8%
increase very slightly in Q2 2012.
Pulaski County
Total Average Median Total
Sales Volume Sale Price Sale Price Sales #
Q1 2012 $6,493,808 $124,880 $111,500 52
Overall
Change 56.9% -6.5% -4.6% 67.7%
Q1 2011 $4,138,975 $133,515 $116,900 31
Change 17.6% 25.2% 11.9% -6.1%
Q1 2010 $3,519,323 $106,646 $104,500 33
Pulaski has seen a nice increase in sales and activity as compared to previous Q1s. Q1 2012 Pending Contracts
total sales were up from 31 o 52 (an increase in over 67%). Total sales volume jumped an
almost equal amount with a 56.9% increase from Q1 2011. Average sales price(-6.5%) and Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Change
median sales price (-4.6%) were down in Pulaski. However, we anticipate sales increases to
continue in the short term as pending contracts in Pulaski were up 61.9%.
21 34 61.9%
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9. City of Radford
Total Average Median Total
Sales Volume Sale Price Sale Price Sales #
Q1 2012 $1,921,400 $128,093 $110,900 15
Overall
Change -22.7% -7.2% -4.4% -16.7%
Q1 2011 $2,485,675 $138,093 $116,012 18
Change -2.0% 3.4% -1.7% -5.3%
Q1 2010 $2,536,450 $133,497 $118,000 19
Pending Contracts
The City of Radford struggled through a tough Q1 2012. Total sales were down again from 18
to 15, which represents a 16.7% drop in sales. This comes off the heels of a slight drop from
Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Change
2010 to 2011. Total volume (-22.7%), average sales price (-7.2%) and median price (-4.4%) all
saw year-over-year declines in Radford. Along similar lines, pending contracts in Radford fell
also in Q1: from 13 to 9 (-30.8%). All signs are pointing to slower sales in Radford. However, 13 9 -30.8%
with prices continuing to drop, buyers may see opportunity and start to purchase in Radford if
they see value.
Giles County
Total Average Median Total
Sales Volume Sale Price Sale Price Sales #
Q1 2012 $2,810,887 $122,212 $107,000 23
Overall
Change 11.3% -8.1% -26.2% 21.1%
Q1 2011 $2,525,900 $132,942 $145,000 19
Change 18.1% 49.2% 77.9% -20.8%
Q1 2010 $2,138,950 $89,122 $81,500 24
Giles County sales have held relatively steady over the past three Q1s. However, Q1 2012 saw Pending Contracts
a 21.1% increase from 19 to 23 sales. While median price (-26.2%) and average price (-8.1%)
did drop, total sales volume increased thanks to the small pop in total sales. Pending contracts Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Change
in Giles increased ever-so-slightly from Q1 2011. The jump from 12 to 14 contracts (+16.7%)
bodes well for Giles. Expect Giles numbers to hold relatively steady in Q2.
12 14 16.7%
*Some statistics in this report come courtesy of the New River Valley Area MLS as of 4/20/12. This report covers the entire New River Valley real estate market.
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