Miniseminar laks 21. juni 2012 - Amund Bråthen
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Konsumentanalytiker i Norges sjømatråd Amund Bråthens presentasjon på Miniseminar Laks i Oslo 21. juni 2012. Om konsumentutvikling av laks i Europa.
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Miniseminar laks 21. juni 2012 - Amund Bråthen
- 2. CONSUMPTION DEVELOPMENT OF SALMON IN EUROPE (CASE: FRANCE, SPAIN, UK AND GERMANY) Amund Bråthen, Norwegian Seafood Council Oslo, June 2012 ab@seafood.no
- 3. DEVELOPMENT IN THE DEMAND FOR SALMON • The numbers are representative what the households are buying for their home consumption. • The numbers does not include HoReCa. • The data is panel data collected through Europanel. • Volume is presented as product weight.
- 4. «EUROPEAN» INDEX BASED UPON VALUE AND VOLUME IN FRANCE, SPAIN AND UK
- 5. POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT IN SALES (VOLUME) OF FRESH, FROZEN SALMON PRODUCTS. Indexed MAT volume for France, Spain and UK (all products) 135,00 130,00 125,00 Index 2006=100 120,00 115,00 Total fresh Total frozen 110,00 Total smoked 105,00 100,00 95,00 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Indexed MAT volume of bought salmon Period: 2006 – P05 2012 Product: fresh, frozen and smoked salmon Source: Europanel/NSC
- 6. STRONG VALUE DEVELOPMENT FOR FRESH SALMON – WEAKER FOR FROZEN AND SMOKED Indexed value for France, Spain and UK (all products) 160,00 150,00 140,00 130,00 Total fresh 120,00 Total frozen Total smoked 110,00 100,00 90,00 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Indexed MAT value of bought salmon Period: 2006 – P05 2012 Product: fresh, frozen and smoked salmon Source: Europanel/NSC
- 7. PRICE DECREASE FOR FROZEN AND FRESH SALMON IN THE THREE COUNTRIES Indexed price for France, Spain and UK (all products) 135,0 130,0 125,0 120,0 115,0 Total fresh 110,0 Total frozen Total smoked 105,0 100,0 95,0 90,0 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Indexed MAT Price of bought salmon Period: 2006 – P05 2012 Product: fresh, frozen and smoked salmon Source: Europanel/NSC
- 8. MARKET FOCUS
- 9. DEVELOPMENT IN HOME CONSUMPTION OF SALMON – P01-P05 YtD P05/April Fresh Frozen Smoked Volume Price Volume Price Volume Price France 53,9 % -17,3% 0,1% 5,3% -1,5% 4,0% Germany 24,3% -8,2% -12,3% 9,2% 6,5% -6,7% UK 11,6% 2,9% -1,4% 1,1% 34,3% -10,2% Spain 29,7% -14,7% 1,3% 6,7% 0,7% 0,1% Volume and price development Period: P01-P05 2011 and 2012 Product: Fresh, Frozen and Smoked salmon Source: Europanel/NSC
- 10. SALMON INCREASES MARKET SHARES IN SPAIN AND UK. STABLE IN FRANCE Johan har du et bilde av en fiskedisk med laks… Salmons market share of seafood sold for home consumption (value based MAT) 24% 22% 20% 18% 16% France Spain 14% UK 12% 10% 8% 13 2 4 6 8 1012 1 3 5 7 9 1113 2 4 2010 2011 2012
- 11. FRANCE
- 12. YTD P05 AVERAGE FRESH FISH PRICES IN FRANCE YtD P05 2011 YtD P05 2012 TUNA 19,34 SOLE 18,76 SCORPI… 21,45 RED MULLET 17,83 TUNA 19,52 ANGLER 17,65 RED… 18,56 SCORPION FISH 17,55 SOLE 18,01 SALMON 14,63 ANGLER 17,60 COD 14,38 SEA BASS 14,88 HADDOCK 14,33 COD 14,40 SEA BASS 13,44 HADDOCK 13,38 RAY 13,28 OTHER… 13,01 Grand Total 12,50 RAY 12,92 POLLACK 12,18 DAB 12,91 DAB 12,15 Grand Total 12,44 OTHER FISH 11,95 WHITING 12,16 SAUMONETTE 11,94 SALMON 12,00 WHITING 11,67 PERCH 11,83 PERCH 11,44 MORUE 11,52 SAUMON… 11,13 MORUE 11,08 LING 10,79 POLLACK 11,04 SEABREAM 10,43 SEABREAM 11,01 COALFISH 10,05 LING 10,91 TROUT 9,94 PLAICE 10,20 PLAICE 9,59 KIPPER 10,05 KIPPER 8,99 COALFISH 9,96 HAKE 8,70 HAKE 9,52 PANGAS 7,50 TROUT 9,48 SARDINES 5,57 PANGAS 7,65 MACKEREL 5,43 MACKEREL 5,92 SARDINES 5,85 Price for fresh fish Period: P01-P05 2011 and 2012 Product: Fresh fish Country: France Source: Europanel/NSC
- 13. PRICE AND VOLUME DEVELOPMENT FOR FRESH FISH IN FRANCE (P01-P05) Volume development 65,0 55,0 Salmon 45,0 35,0 Haddock 25,0 Angler Ray15,0 Plaice 5,0 Cod Price development Red Mullet Kipper Tuna Coalfish Morue -25,00 -20,00 -15,00 -10,00 -5,00 Mackerel -5,00,00 5,00 10,00 15,00 20,00 Sole Whiting -15,0 Seabream Hake Ling Pangas Pollack -25,0 Perch -35,0 Sardines Price for fresh fish -45,0 Period: P01-P05 2011 and 2012 Product: Fresh fish Country: France Source: Europanel/NSC
- 14. LESS IS SOLD UNDER 10 EURO IN Q112 THAN IN . Q411 Volume sold of fresh salmon in different average price levels. 100 % 90 % 80 % 70 % 60 % 16+ 50 % 14-15,99 12-13,99 40 % 10-11,99 7-9,99 30 % 20 % 10 % 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2009 2010 2011 2012
- 15. FRESH SALMON IS BACK ON PROMOTION. Photo: Carrefour
- 20. SOME DEFINITIONS Volume = Number of Household who buys (Penetration)* Average kilo purchased in the period (AWP) Value (alternative 1) = Volume * Price Value (alternative 2) = Number of Household who buys (Penetration)*(Average expenditure of the purchase (AWE (AWP*Price))
- 21. POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR FRESH SALMON IN FRANCE FROM 2011 TO 2012 – ALSO HIGHER THAN 2010 2010 2011 2012 26,6 22,5 27,2 Penetration % -15,3% +20,7% 1,38 1,13 1,44 AW Purchase -18,1% +27,4% € AW Price / Kg 11,8 17,8% 13,9 -17,2% 11,5 16,3 15,7 16,5 AW Expenditure -3,6% 5,1% Period: P01-P05
- 22. STRONG POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT ON ALL AREAS FOR FRESH SALMON IN SPAIN. 2010 2011 2012 27,2 28,8 31,4 Penetration % 5,9% 9,0% 2,66 2,49 2,96 AW Purchase -6,4% +18,9% € AW Price / Kg 8,4 13,1% 9,5 -14,7% 8,1 22,4 23,6 23,9 AW Expenditure 5,4% 1,3% Period: P01-P05
- 23. Penetration % AW Expenditure AW Purchase € AW Price / Kg France – YtD P05 2011 vr YtD P05 2012 Fresh salmon +21% +5% +28% -17% Frozen salmon +4% +2% -3% +5% Smoked salmon 0% +2% -2% +4% Spain – YtD P05 2011 vr YtD P05 2012 Fresh salmon +9% +1% +19% -15% Frozen salmon -4% +12% +5% +7% Smoked salmon -5% +5% +5% +0% Period: P01-P05
- 24. TOTAL SEAFOOD IN SPAIN 2010 2011 2012 95,8 96,6 96,9 Penetration % 0,8% 0,3% 188,8 187,8 182,5 AW Expenditure -0,5% -2,8% 28,0 26,7 26,1 AW Purchase -4,6% -2,2% € AW Price / Kg 6,80 3,5% Period: P01-P05 7,04 -0,6% 7,00
- 25. FRESH FISH IN FRANCE HAS A POSITVE DEVELOPMENT BUT LESS THAN FOR SALMON. 2010 2011 2012 58,0 55,9 56,2 Penetration % -3,6% 0,5% 40,2 40,1 40,9 AW Expenditure -0,2% +2,0% 3,47 3,23 3,33 AW Purchase -6,9% 3,1% € AW Price / Kg 11,6 6,9% Period: P01-P05 12,4 -0,8% 12,3
- 26. SUMMARY 1. Strong positive development for fresh salmon. Volume is up and prices are down. 2. Positive tendences for smoked salmon, more variation for frozen salmon. 3. Penetration and expenditure are increasing for fresh salmon in France and Spain.