Speaker: Commodore Lee Cordner, AM, RANR, Indo-Pacific Governance Research Centre, Adelaide University

1. Risk Managing Maritime Security in the
Indian Ocean Region: cooperative
opportunities for maritime forces
Commodore Lee Cordner Rtd.
Indo-Pacific Governance Research Centre (IPGRC), University of Adelaide, Australia
Visiting International Fellow
Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India

2. Presentation Outline
•Risk, Vulnerability & Maritime Security
•IOR risk context and risk assessment
•Recommendations

3. •maritime security built upon shared
perspectives of risks &vulnerabilities
• develop shared understandings of threats
to common objectives
•identify shared opportunities for
mitigating risks & reducing vulnerabilities

4. RISK
•World Risk Society, Ulrich Beck
•ISO 31000:2009 Risk management –
Principles and guidelines

5. Risk is defined as the effect of uncertainty on
objectives
IOR virtual organization – open, expansive &
inclusive maritime system, a composite oceanic
& littoral region in which regional and extra-
regional actors have common objectives,
interests & shared risks & vulnerabilities
3 phases of risk management:
1. Establishing the context
2. Risk assessment
3. Risk Treatment

6. Vulnerability
the state of susceptibility to harm from exposure to
risks posing unquantifiable uncertainty combined
with insufficient capacities to prevent, respond or
adapt

7. Maritime Security
a comprehensive concept that derives from the systemic
nature of the maritime domain presenting multiple and inter-
related requirements for cooperative security by state and
non-state actors; it addresses traditional and non-traditional
security challenges
involves coordinating collective and cooperative risk
mitigation and vulnerability reduction efforts in order to
protect and promote national, regional and global vital
interests, objectives and core values including those relating
to state sovereignty, freedom of navigation, economic
development, environment and ocean resources, human and
social development, and political stability

8. IOR maritime security risk context
•law of the sea
•economy, trade & globalization
•energy
•environment & ocean resources
•social cohesion & development
•potential for interstate conflict
•regional security architecture

9. Law of the Sea
•maritime Sovereignty
•freedom of Navigation
•conservation & protection of the marine
environment & resources
Economy, Trade & Globalization
•emerging IOR prominence
•uneven economic development
•uneven impact of globalization

10. Energy
•crucial to regional & global energy security
•IOR SLOCs
•Geopolitics of world energy changing
Environment & Ocean Resources
•greatest maritime security-related IOR
challenge in medium to longer term
•coastal zones – sea level rise & extreme
weather
•natural disasters
•vulnerability

11. Social Cohesion & Development
•diversity, complexity &conflict
•majority of the world’s refugees
•migration generates economic, social,
political &security challenges
•fertile environment for law & order issues
Potential for Interstate Conflict
• China, India, US – seapower
•WMD
•Limited regional maritime capabilities
•External states – stability & intervention

12. Regional Security Architecture
•security architecture lacking
•IORA – no security:
•maritime safety & security
•fisheries management
•disaster risk management
•academic, S & T
•IONS
•No Track 2 or 1.5

13. IOR Strategic Objectives for Maritime Security
1. Attain & sustain maritime territorial sovereignty
2. Assure freedom of navigation in accordance with UNCLOS
3. Implement effective conservation, protection &management of
the marine environment in areas within national jurisdiction &
high seas
4. Address the uneven effects of globalization across the IOR
system
5. Promote economic development & enhance intra & extra-
regional maritime trade
6. Ensure integrity of energy (oil, gas & coal) maritime supply
routes throughout the IOR
7. Assert effective, sustainable control over fish & other resources
within areas of national jurisdiction & high seas
8. Implement effective measures to address impacts of climate
change

14. IOR Strategic Objectives for Maritime Security
9. Implement effective management of coastal zone around IOR
littoral
10.Develop cooperative natural disaster response & recovery
mechanisms
11.Promote social tolerance, cohesion & stability founded upon
economic & societal development & integration
12.Impose law & order consistent with international regimes and
norms
13.Establish nuclear weapons & other WMD free zone; prevent
WMD proliferation; remove nuclear weapons & WMD; prevent
extra-regional states & other actors bringing WMD into the IOR
14.Encourage political order in IOR states & promote regional
stability
15.Develop regional maritime security dialogue & cooperation
architectures in the IOR

15. IOR Maritime Security Risks
1. Transgressions of sovereignty in the territorial sea
2. Transgressions of sovereignty in the EEZ
3. States asserting unreasonable maritime sovereignty claims
4. State closures of international straits, archipelagic sea
lanes &/or areas within national jurisdiction
5. State restrictions on freedom of navigation in international
straits, archipelagic sea lanes &/or areas within national
jurisdiction
6. Non-state actors impinging upon freedom of navigation
(piracy, maritime terrorism)
7. Impacts of climate change on the marine environment
8. Illegal exploitation of marine living resources, in areas of
national jurisdiction & high seas
9. Marine pollution & dumping

16. IOR Maritime Security Risks
10. Inadequate regulation & control of the marine environment
11. Sea-level rise & increasing intensity & frequency of
extreme weather events in IOR coastal zones & islands
12. Law & order at sea transgressions: crime, piracy, robbery,
smuggling, trafficking, illegal immigration, IUU fishing
13. Disruption of energy cargoes at sea
14. Offshore oil & gas safety & security incidents
15. Transportation & deployment of WMD at sea
16. Local, state on state, conflict spilling into the maritime
domain
17. Maritime intervention (power projection, asserting sea
control) by major powers in the IOR
18. Safety at sea
19. Lack of IOR architecture & entities to facilitate regional
maritime security dialogue & cooperation

17. Strategic
Objective
MS
Risk
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Overall Risk
1 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
2 x x x x x x x x x x x x
3 x x x x x x x x x x x x x
4 x x x x x x x x
5 x x x x x x x x x x x
6 x x x x x x x x x x
7 x x x x x x x x x x x x
8 x x x x
9 x x x x x x x x
10 x x x x x
11 x x x x x x x x x x x
12 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
13 x x x x x x x
14 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
15 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
LOS
RA
R
A

18. Concluding Summary
•IOR – sea vital common medium
•Global strategic & economic balance to IOR
•Climate change greatest impact medium to
long term – natural disasters
•Much uncertainty = risk
•Many vulnerabilities
•Lack of maritime security capabilities
•Lack of cooperative mechanisms
•Opportunity for cooperative security

19. Recommendations
1. Conduct regional strategic risk assessment,
maritime security focus, enhanced maritime
security cooperation: IONS initiative
2. Encourage IORA to include climate change
3. Encourage expansion of IORA membership
4. IONS encourage/support creation of Track
2/1.5 dialogue entity - IORG
5. Support creation of separate Track 1 IOR
security dialogue entity