Benoit (iea) plenary ccxg global forum march2014
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Moving on from Warsaw: Some IEA work
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Benoit (iea) plenary ccxg global forum march2014
- 1. © IEA 2013 Moving on from Warsaw: Some IEA work Philippe Benoit Head of Energy Efficiency & Environment (Climate) Division, IEA CCXG Global Forum Paris, 19 March, 2014
- 2. © OECD/IEA 2012 1. IEA’s 4-for-2 2. … 3. … 4. … 5. … IEA CC work. . .
- 3. © OECD/IEA 2013 Four measures can stop emissions growth by 2020 Emissions savings in the 4-for-2 C Scenario, 2020 Four measures can stop the growth in emissions by 2020 at no net economic cost, reducing emissions by 3.1 Gt, 80% of the savings required for a 2 C path 4-for-2 C Scenario delivers savings of 3.1 Gt CO2-eq 49% 21% 18% 12% Implement selected energy efficiency policies Limit use of inefficient coal power plants Reduce methane releases from upstream oil and gas Partial removal of fossil-fuel subsidies
- 4. © OECD/IEA 2012 1. … 2. Fighting lock-in: “unlocking” 3. … 4. … 5. … IEA CC work. . .
- 5. © OECD/IEA 2012 Power generation Industry Transport Other Room to manoeuvre “Lock-In” of 2 degree Emissions 5 10 15 20 25 30 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Gt 2 °C trajectory Lock-in of existing infrastructure 35 Room to manoeuvre
- 6. © OECD/IEA 2012 Power generation Industry Transport Other Room to manoeuvre 5 10 15 20 25 30 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Gt 2 °C trajectory Lock-in of existing infrastructure 2017 Planned fossil fuel infrastructure through 2017 will generate all energy emissions under 2DS through 2035 35 “Lock-In” of 2 degree Emissions
- 7. © OECD/IEA 2012 “Early retirement” (e.g., decommissioning) Fuel switching (changing dispatch rather than energy mix) Carbon Capture and Storage Remove fossil fuel subsidies Keys to ‘un-lock’ energy emissions include: ‘Un-locking’ strategies
- 8. © OECD/IEA 2012 Market mechanisms ETS Carbon taxing Mandates – portfolio prescriptions /restrictions Non-climate regulations, etc. Policy directives (e.g. to state-owned enterprises) Influencing relative pricing Possible Policy tools to unlock: ‘Un-locking’ Policies
- 9. © OECD/IEA 2012 1. … 2. … 3. Pollution-Climate Nexus: Challenges and opportunities for the energy sector 4. … 5. … IEA CC work. . .
- 10. © OECD/IEA 2014 The Pollution/CC mitigation nexus US Clean Air Act regulations China air quality goals Other countries . . . Can pollution considerations/tools affect Contributions . . .
- 11. © OECD/IEA 2012 Credit: Patrick Kovarik AFPMarch 11, 2014 Dirty air prompts free public transport in Paris Public transportation in the capital will be "gratuit" from Friday morning to Sunday night, as officials battle against a spike in "dangerously" poor air quality. Velib' rental bikes and the car-sharing Autolib' scheme are also on the house. First step to ‘un-locking’?
- 12. © OECD/IEA 2012 1. … 2. … 3. … 4. Resilience challenge for the Energy Sector 5. … IEA CC work. . .
- 13. © OECD/IEA 2012
- 14. © OECD/IEA 2014 Irreversible climate change necessitates adaptive measures in the energy sector Resilience and Mitigation: Energy Sector Resilience an issue in all scenarios 2030 Source: 2013 IPCC AR5 (WGI) Summary for Policymakers.
- 15. © OECD/IEA 2014 The Nexus Forum meetings Three meetings have been held to date • 1st Forum: Implications for Business (Nov 2012) • 2nd Forum: Cities and Insurance (June 2013) • 3rd Forum: Electricity Sector Resilience (October 2013) Upcoming Nexus Forum meetings • 4th Forum: Climate Change, Water & Energy (June 2014, WBCSD, Geneva) • 5th Forum: Resilience Policies and Practices (November 2014, IEA, Paris)??
- 16. © OECD/IEA 2014 Overarching/cross-cutting messages 1. Strengthen government leadership on energy resilience 2. Improve analytical base for resilience planning 3. Increase public-private cooperation and collaboration on energy resilience
- 17. © OECD/IEA 2014 The IEA’s Nexus Forum workstream i. Dialogue facilitation ii. Policy information collection and dissemination iii. Data and modelling iv. Research stocktaking regarding impacts vulnerability, and resilience policies v. Policy development
- 18. © OECD/IEA 2014 Showcasing major emerging studies
- 19. © OECD/IEA 2012 1. … 2. … 3. … 4. … 5. ADP Technical Experts Meeting on Energy Efficiency IEA CC work. . .
- 20. © OECD/IEA 2012 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2009 2020 2030 2040 2050 Emissions Reductions (Gt CO2) Portfolio of decarbonising measures
- 21. © OECD/IEA 2012 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2009 2020 2030 2040 2050 Nuclear 8% End-use fuel switching 12% CCS 14% Renewables 21% Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 3% End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 42% Emissions Reductions (Gt CO2) Portfolio of decarbonising measures
- 22. © OECD/IEA 2012 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2009 2020 2030 2040 2050 Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 3% End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 42% Emissions Reductions (Gt CO2) Portfolio of decarbonising measures A major role for Energy Efficiency
- 23. © OECD/IEA 2012 Mckensey&Company: Impact of the financial crisis on carbon economics EE: often a ‘no-regrets’ investment
- 24. © OECD/IEA 2012 Market failures impede EE investment Imperfect Information Asymmetric Information •Moral Hazard •Adverse Selection Split Incentives Principal-Agent Problems •Moral Hazard •Split Incentives Energy Market Failures (Externalities) Behavioural Failures (Bounded Rationality) Financing
- 25. © OECD/IEA 2012 Cross-sectoral 1. Energy efficiency data collection and indicators 2. Strategies and action plans 3. Competitive energy markets with appropriate regulation 4. Private investment in energy efficiency 5. Monitoring, enforcement and evaluation of policies and measures Buildings 6. Mandatory building energy codes and minimum energy performance requirements; 7. Aiming for net zero energy consumption in buildings 8. Improving the energy efficiency of existing buildings 9. Building energy labels or certificates 10. Improved energy performance of building components and systems Appliances and Equipment 11. Mandatory MEPS and labels for appliances and equipment 12. Test standards and measurement protocols for appliances and equipment 13. Market transformation policies for appliances and equipment Lighting 14. Phase-out of inefficient lighting products and systems 15. Energy efficient lighting systems Transport 16. Mandatory vehicle fuel efficiency standards 17. Measures to improve vehicle fuel efficiency 18. Fuel-efficient non-engine components 19. Improved vehicle operational efficiency through Eco-driving and other measures 20. Transport system efficiency Industry 21. Energy Management in industry 22. High efficiency industrial equipment and systems 23. Energy efficiency services for small and medium enterprises 24. Complementary policies to support industrial energy efficiency Utilities and end-use 25. Energy Utilities and end-use energy efficiency 25 EE Policy Recommendations
- 26. © OECD/IEA 2012 Matchmaking: Demand with Suppliers Interested Policymakers, etc. Willing Suppliers of expertise Speed-dating Long-term relationship
- 27. © OECD/IEA 2012 Collective efforts
- 28. © OECD/IEA 2013 EE is not on track for 2DS Renewable power Electric and hybrid-electric vehicles Smart grids Fuel economy Gas-fired power Nuclear power Coal-fired power Carbon capture and storage Industry Biofuels Buildings
- 29. © OECD/IEA 2012 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2009 2020 2030 2040 2050 Nuclear 8% End-use fuel switching 12% CCS 14% Renewables 21% Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 3% End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 42% Emissions Reductions (Gt CO2) Portfolio of decarbonising measures
- 30. © OECD/IEA 2012 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2009 2020 2030 2040 2050 Nuclear 8% End-use fuel switching 12% CCS 14% Renewables 21% Emissions Reductions (Gt CO2) Portfolio of decarbonising measures
- 31. © OECD/IEA 2012 Energy Efficiency Climate Change Goals Energy Sector Goals Economic & Security Goals Local Pollution Goals Social Goals
- 32. © OECD/IEA 2012 Energy Efficiency Climate Change Goals Energy Sector Goals Economic & Security Goals Local Pollution Goals Social Goals
- 33. © IEA 2013 Thank You Philippe Benoit Head of Energy Efficiency & Environment (Climate) Division, IEA
Notas del editor
- First, we have analysed measures to seize the low-hanging fruit… describe 4-4-2 ….These actions could play a key role in keeping emissions on track between now and 2020. But they also have implications for national contributions post-2020: for example should countries be expected to <at least> undertake this zero-cost level of emissions reductions? And how can early action before 2020 best be encouraged?
- CONCLUSION- “unlocking” existing infrastructure is going to be a key part of the transition. How could the 2015 agreement help ensure countries go beyond just new investment in clean energy, and also address infrastructure transition?
- IPCC Working Group II (September 2013)US DOE Report (June 2013)Munich RE (2012)IEA Electricity Security Framework (2012) World Energy Outlook Special Report (2013)NEA Report (2014)WBCSD Report (2014)
- Taking developments across the energy system together, it is difficult to paint a positive picture. You see it summed up here.At the same time, the positive progress in renewable energy demonstrates the very real power governments have to create markets and policies that accelerate development and uptake of clean energy technologies. The potential of clean energy technologies remains largely untapped, but governments can unlock that potential through effective government policy, and by pricing energy appropriately. Several of the most promising trends in clean energy are also coming from emerging economies – precisely where demand growth has been buoying carbon emissions. That is great news. Our report makes a number of broad, global recommendations, that pull together the key outcomes of the report. First: that is it only by working together - among countries but also with stakeholders in the private sector and non-profit worlds - that we can make progress at the scale and pace required. This means deepening international collaboration on clean energy deployment – through joint, actionable and monitored commitments – and setting clear and ambitious clean energy technology goals.Second: for too long have we supported, directly or indirectly, wasteful use of energy. Largely this is because prices do not reflect the true cost of energy. Altering this means creating a meaningful carbon price and phasing out fossil fuel subsidies. It also means implementing long-term, predictable policies that encourage investors to switch from traditional energy sources to low-carbon technologies. While that may not happen overnight, let’s not fool ourselves: if we do not get prices and policies right, the transition to a clean energy system simply will not happen. That is my second key message.Third message:we need to take a systems-perspective and a long-term view. Governments must think beyond individual technologies and electoral cycles and consider the larger picture. Smart infrastructure investments that enable system-wide gains make sense, and clean energy solutions such as electric vehicles and solar PV depend on them. But infrastructure takes time to build, so action is needed now.Fourth, let’s seize on energy’s easy win, energy efficiency. We have seen that much energy efficiency potential remains untapped, due to barriers such as high upfront capital costs, customer indifference, and lack of awareness or capacity. Stronger economic incentives and more ambitious regulation – including building energy codes, fuel economy standards, energy management in industry and other energy efficiency measures - are required to tap into that potential.Our final recommendation relates to the report’s special feature: energy technology RD&D and innovation. Early deployment is vital for learning and cost reduction for more mature technologies, but strategic RD&D is also critical to bring promising clean energy technologies to the market. The private sector will not act on its own. Governments must accelerate RD&D support for clean energy, and double its share in public budgets, to enable cost and performance gains that make clean energy competitive.[Open discussion].