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The Global Enteric Multi-Center Study
(GEMS): Etiology & Burden of Moderate &
 Severe Diarrheal Disease in Africa & Asia
       Myron M (Mike) Levine, MD, DTPH
  Grollman Distinguished Professor & Director
        Center for Vaccine Development,
   University of Maryland School of Medicine
          Baltimore, MD 21201, USA
      PAS Annual Meeting, April 30, 2012
                                                CVD
                Boston, MA, USA
UN Millenium Development Goal # 4 aims to diminish
mortality in children < 5 years of age by 67% by 2015
Of the 35 countries with the
highest under-five mortality,
34 are in sub-Saharan Africa!!!
(State of the World’s Children, UNICEF 2011)
Deaths
  among
children < 5
years of age
 (CHERG
   data)
RE Black et al,
 Lancet 2010


         CVD
Clinical syndromes
“Simple” gastroenteritis
    Watery diarrhea, mucus, some
    vomiting, low-grade fever, malaise,
    anorexia; dehydration in infants


 Profuse watery diarrhea
  Purging of voluminous rice water stools;
   dehydration of older children & adults

Dysentery
  Blood & mucus in diarrheal stools

Persistent diarrhea                          CVD

 Continues > 14 days, unabated
Some limitations of earlier studies
•   Few studies from countries with high child mortality
•   Very few studies from sub-Saharan Africa
•   Typically only one site studied per report
•   Often limited to children < 24 months of age
•   Most had short surveillance (only 6-24 calendar
    months; too limited to detect cyclical patterns)
•   Failure to enroll and study matched controls
•   Lack of census data or linkage to a DSS
•   Health care utilization patterns not known
•   Incomplete survey of etiological agents
•   Insensitive microbiological methods
•   Strains not characterized for serotype, genotype, etc.
•   No follow-up of cases & controls
GLOBAL ENTERIC MULTI-CENTER STUDY (“GEMS”)
  Diarrheal disease in infants & young children in developing countries

        Project Funded by Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
                     The GEMS Leadership Team:
       Coordinating Investigator
            Myron M. (Mike) Levine, M.D., D.T.P.H.
            Center for Vaccine Development,
       University of Maryland School of Medicine
       Principal Investigator, epidemiology & clinical
             Karen L. Kotloff, M.D.

CVD    Principal Investigator, microbiology
             James P. Nataro, M.D., Ph.D.
       (since 9/2010, Professor & Chair, Dept. of Pediatrics, U. of Virginia)
•   Common protocol to study moderate & severe diarrhea (MSD)
•   Rigorous epidemiologic case/control & microbiologic design
•   Defined population under demographic surveillance
•   3 age strata: 0-11 mos; 12-23 mos; 24-59 mos
•   Health Services Utilization & Attitudes Survey (HUAS); 1000/site
•   600 analyzable cases & > 600 analyzable matched controls per
    age group, per each of 7 sites, over 3 years
•   Record all diarrhea and all MSD cases coming to sentinel sites
•   Even sampling throughout the year (8-9 cases per age stratum,
    per fortnight, throughout the enrollment period)
•   AFRICA & ASIA; rural & urban; high & low HIV; high & low malaria
•   Record specific clinical syndromes
•   Utilize modern molecular diagnostic tools
•   Expanded etiology; serotypes; antigenic types; genotypes
•   60-DAY FOLLOW-UP VISITS of cases & controls
     – Detect deaths; nutritional consequences; (persistent diarrhea)
•   Water/sanitation risk factor data & economic burden data
•   SPECIMEN & STRAIN REPOSITORY
4 GEMS Sites in Sub-Saharan Africa
CDC/KEMRI, Kisumu, Kenya PI – Robert Breiman
MRC Unit, Basse, Gambia PI – Debasish Saha
                             Richard Adegbola
                             Jahangir Hussein
CISM, Manhiça, Mozambique PI – Pedro Alonso
CVD-Mali, Bamako, Mali PI – Samba Sow
3 GEMS Sites in South Asia
Aga Khan University, Pakistan PI – Anita Zaidi
NICED, Kolkata, West Bengal, India PI- Dipika Sur
ICDDR,B: Mirzapur, Bangladesh PI- ASG Faruque
Salient features of the seven GEMS-1 sites
                                            Manhiça,         Mirzapur,
               Basse,        Bamako,                 Kisumu,           Karachi, Kolkata,
Site                                        Mozam-           Bangla-
               Gambia          Mali                   Kenya            Pakistan India
                                             bique             desh
                                                                        Coastal
                                             Mostly   Mostly
Setting       Very rural       Urban                           Rural    fishing  Urban
                                              rural    rural
                                                                        villages
National
             67.5    113.7                     103.8          53.5           52.5           65.3      49.1
IMR*
DSS
annual    157,726 210,425                     84,206        141,628       254,751          252,346 194,172
pop’n     (28,898) (32,526)                  (16,657)       (23,294)      (24,077)         (24,792) (12,885)
(< 5 yrs)
Malaria
preva-    Moderate Moderate                 Moderate          Mod-
                                                                             Low            Low       Low
lence      (falling)                         (falling)        erate
HIV
preva-            Low           Low             High          High           Low            Low       Low
lence

* IMR, infant mortality rate = deaths of infants 0-11 months of age per 1000 live births
Some GEMS assumptions
• A limited number of etiologic agents may be responsible
  for a disproportionately large fraction of MSD
• MSD seen at SHCs is a proxy for fatal disease in the
  community
• The appropriate epidemiologic design for identifying the
  relative importance of pathogens associated with MSD
  is a matched case/control study (MSD uncommon)
• We can standardize clinical and lab methods across
  sites and maintain GCP, GCLP and Quality Control
• Making a single 60-day post-enrollment visit to case &
  control households creates prospective mini-cohorts
• Results will facilitate the setting of investment &
  intervention priorities
Study Advisories
Steering Committee on Epidemiology/Clinical Issues
   Fred Binka (Ghana), Eric Mintz (CDC), Paul Stolley (UM), John
   Clemens (IVI), Halvor Sommerfelt (Bergen), Dani Cohen (Tel Aviv U),
   Roger Glass (Fogarty)
Steering Committee on Microbiologic Issues
   Roy Robins-Browne (U of Melbourne), Philippe Sansonetti (Institut
   Pasteur), Patrick Murray (NIH), Duncan Steele (PATH)
Steering Committee on Biostatistical Issues
   Larry Moulton (JHU), Barry Graubard (NCI), Peter Smith (LSTMH),
   Janet Wittes (Statistics Collaborative), William Pan (Duke)
Steering on Nutritional Issues
Reynaldo Martorell (Emory), Claudio Lanata (IIN), Rebecca Stoltzfus
  (Cornell)
Consensus -- Case/control protocol & microbiologic methods &
  analytical strategies were finalized after consultations with the SCs
Reference Laboratories
MSD case eligibility & enrollment
 •    Age 0-59 mos. & from DSS
 •    Seeking care at a sentinel Health Center (SHC)
 •    Diarrhea (> 3 loose stools in previous 24h)
 •    Diarrhea-free for 7 days before current episode
 •    Episode began within 7 days of enrollment
 •    Diarrhea is moderate or severe, i.e., has > 1 of:
       – Moderate/severe dehydration:
         • Sunken eyes
         • Loss of skin turgor
         • IV rehydration required
CVD
      – Dysentery (gross blood & mucus)
      – Hospitalized (clinician’s judgment)
Selection of controls
• Community controls randomly selected using DSS database
• 1-3 controls/case
• Matched to case by:
   – Age (strata are respected)
      • 0-11 mos: +2 months
      • 12-59 mos: +4 months
   – Gender
   – Same or nearby village
   – Within 14 days of presentation of case
• No diarrhea within 7 days of enrollment
• Provides stool sample of acceptable quality
• Informed consent
Microbiology work flow




CVD
Full 36 mos. of
                            ALL SITES             GEMS data
          Controls enrolled           Controls enrolled
                             13,125
                6810                        6315
    A




                                                          AS
           Cases enrolled       9524    Cases enrolled
RIC


               5282            (65%)        4242




                                                            IA
          MSD eligibles       14,753      MSD eligibles
AF




             9149             (21%)          5604
      All cases of diarrhea             All cases of diarrhea
          seen at SHCs        71,364        seen at SHCs
              35,984                           35,380
     CYO < 60 mos in DSS                 CYO < 60 mos in DSS
                              483,627
           295,164                             188,463
Pathogens (including Giardia) identified in stool
specimens from cases and controls during the
             first 2 years of GEMS
No. of       4 African sites      3 Asian sites
pathogens
identified Cases (%) Ctrls (%) Cases (%) Ctrls (%)
At least 1    79          71      83         70
At least 2    37          29      47         32
At least 3    10           7      16         10
Pathogen isolations, India site, 12-23 months age group.
        588 cases & 598 controls (3-year data)
Pathogen            Cases    Pathogen                Cases
Rotavirus            151    Astrovirus                19
Giardia              138    tEPEC                     18
Cryptosporidium      98     ETEC - LT only            17
Campylobacter jejuni 83     E. histolytica            14
EAEC                 72     Adenovirus non-40-41      11
Norovirus GII        51     Campylobacter coli         5
Shigella             40     Norovirus GI               4
Adenovirus 40/41     29     Aeromonas                  2
ST-only ETEC         26     EHEC                       2
Sapovirus            24     Non-typhoidal Salmonella   1
V. cholerae O1       21
ETEC - LT/ST         21
aEPEC                21
Pathogen isolations, India site, 12-23 months age group.
        588 cases & 598 controls (3-year data)
Pathogen            Cases Ctrls    Pathogen                Cases Ctrls
Rotavirus            151   13     Astrovirus                19    13
Giardia              138  173     tEPEC                     18    18
Cryptosporidium      98    60     ETEC - LT only            17    21
Campylobacter jejuni 83    76     E. histolytica            14     4
EAEC                 72    82     Adenovirus non-40-41      11    11
Norovirus GII        51    33     Campylobacter coli         5     9
Shigella             40     7     Norovirus GI               4    12
Adenovirus 40/41     29     4     Aeromonas                  2     5
ETEC - ST-only       26     9     EHEC                       2     0
Sapovirus            24    15     Non-typhoidal Salmonella   1     2
V. cholerae O1       21     2
ETEC - LT/ST         21     6
aEPEC                21    66
Attributable Fraction (AF)
      Grappling with the issue of enteric pathogens in
      matched controls without diarrhea
      • Fraction of all MSD (moderate & severe diarrhea)
        cases attributable to (presumably caused by) a
        particular pathogen
      • Fraction of MSD cases or MSD incidence rate that
        could theoretically be eliminated if the pathogen were
        eliminated
      Grappling with the issue of multiple enteric
      pathogens in cases & controls
      • Bruzzi et al (AJE 1985) allows AF to be calculated while
CVD
        taking into account the presence of other pathogens
      • Allows AF for a group of pathogens (e.g., “Top 5”)
India, age 12-23 months:
     588 cases, 598 controls (3 years of data)
                    Cases     Ctrls                              Adj
                     With     With                      Adj     Attrib
Pathogen           Pathogen Pathogen   OR     p-value   AF      Cases
Rotavirus            151       13      21.1   <0.0001   0.278    144
Cryptosporidium      98        60      2.1     0.002    0.088    52
Shigella             40        7       14.6   <0.0001   0.063    37
LT/ST or ST-only     47        15      3.8    <0.0001   0.059    35
Adenovirus 40/41     29        4       11.1   <0.0001   0.045    26
V. cholerae O1       21        2       10.4    0.001    0.032    19
E. histolytica       14        4       5.4     0.045    0.019    11
Pathogen-specific adjusted attributable fractions,
     0-11 months age group, “Top 5” analysis (3 yrs of data)
  0-11 m       Gambia       Kenya        Mali     Mozam       India     Bangla Pakistan
Total cases      400         673         727        374       672        550      633
#1                 RV         RV           RV        RV         RV        RV        RV
                 (23%)       (19%)       (21%)     (32%)      (28%)     (17%)     (23%)
#2              Crypto      Crypto      Crypto     Crypto     Crypto    Shigella Aeromon
                (11%)        (9%)       (14%)      (14%)      (13%)      (13%)    (11%)
#3             Noro-GII ETEC ST or ETEC ST or ETEC ST or   Adeno    C. jejuni ETEC ST or
                (7%)    LT/ST (6%) LT/ST (4%) LT/ST (3%) 40/41 (4%) (10%) LT/ST (7%)
#4             ETEC ST or    tEPEC       Adeno      Adeno    ETEC ST or Aeromo   Shigella
               LT/ST (4%)     (5%)     40/41 (2%) 40/41 (2%) LT/ST (3%) (10%)     (7%)

#5              Shigella    Shigella                         Shigella   Crypto   Crypto
                 (4%)         (4%)                            (2%)       (6%)     (4%)
“Top 5” - %
of all cases     47%         40%         38%       47%        46%       49%       46%
Pathogen-specific adjusted attributable fractions
  12-23 months age group, “Top 5”analysis (3 yrs of data)
 12-23 m       Gambia       Kenya       Mali      Mozam          India      Bangla     Pakistan

Total cases      455         410        682         194          588         476        399
    #1             RV          RV         RV       Crypto          RV       Shigella   Shigella
                 (17%)       (14%)      (12%)       (9%)         (24%)       (53%)      (11%)
    #2          Shigella    Crypto     Crypto     ETEC ST or    Crypto         RV      Aeromon
                 (12%)       (8%)       (4%)      LT/ST (9%)     (9%)        (17%)       (11%)
    #3         Noro-GII ETEC ST or ETEC ST or      Shigella     Shigella    Aeromon       RV
                (8%)    LT/ST (7%) LT/ST (3%)       (6%)         (6%)         (11%)     (10%)

    #4          Crypto      Shigella   Shigella      RV        ETEC ST or    EAEC       Crypto
                 (8%)         (4%)      (2%)        (5%)       LT/ST (6%)    (9%)        (8%)
    #5         ETEC ST or    NTS
                                          -
                                                   C. jejuni   Noro-GII     V. chol    V. chol
               LT/ST (6%)    (4%)                    (2%)       (5%)        O1 (1%)    O1 (8%)
“Top 5” - %
   all cases
                 45%         34%        20%         36%          45%         76%        47%
Pathogen-specific adjusted attributable fractions
   24-59 months age group. “Top 5” analysis (3 yrs of data)
 24-59 m Gambia              Kenya        Mali     Mozam          India      Bangla        Pakistan
Total
   cases
                 174          393         624        112          308          368           226
    #1             RV        Shigella      RV       Shigella        RV       Shigella     Aeromonas
                 (13%)         (9%)       (3%)       (17%)        (14%)       (69%)         (25%)
    #2          Shigella    ETEC ST or E. histolyt V. chol O1    Shigella    Aeromon       V. chol O1
                 (13%)      LT/ST (5%)    (2%)        (8%)        (11%)        (5%)           (13%)
    #3         ETEC ST or     NTS       Shigella
                                                       -
                                                                 C. jejuni   V. chol O1     C. jejuni
               LT/ST (8%)     (4%)       (2%)                     (10%)           (3%)       (12%)
    #4         Noro-GII        RV
                                            -          -
                                                                V. chol O1     NTS          Shigella
                (8%)          (3%)                                 (8%)        (2%)           (9%)
    #5             -
                             Crypto
                                            -          -
                                                                ETEC ST or
                                                                                 -
                                                                                          ETEC ST or
                              (3%)                              LT/ST (7%)                LT/ST (5%)
“Top 5 - %
   all cases     38%          22%         7%         24%          44%         77%            51%
Some broad observations
      • “Top 5” pathogens predominate but differ by age stratum
      • Specific effective interventions against a small number of
        pathogens can have a notable impact
      • New potential priorities identified:
         – Cryptosporidium
         – C. jejuni and perhaps Aeromonas in Asia
         – Adenovirus 40,41? NV GII?
      • WHO pathogen priority list corroborated
         – Rotavirus, ETEC, Shigella, V. cholerae O1
      • A proportion of diarrhea cases do not have attribution
         – Other etiologies? Promiscuous antibiotic usage?
CVD
      • All sites & ages, Giardia associated with a significantly
        lower likelihood of MSD (i.e., appears “protective”)
Probability of MSD case visiting SHC
          within 7 days of onset (“r”)

      r is estimated
      • From pooled HUAS-lite data
      • Using life table (Kaplan-Meier) analysis, to
         adjust for HUAS-lite interviews occurring
         within 7 days of onset of diarrhea

CVD
Annual burden (cases & incidence) of adjusted pathogen-attributable
        MSD, by age, in children age 0-59 mos. in rural Gambia
                                          0-11 m 12-23 m 24-59 m
                                          N=5708 N=6230 N=17,139
            Total MSD cases                 789       1232     513
  Adjusted “Top 5” attributable cases       369       561      196
       Total MSD rate/100 CYO              13.8       19.8     3.0
“Top 5” attributable MSD rate/100 CYO       6.5        9.0     1.1
          Rotavirus/100 CYO                 3.2        3.4     0.4
           Shigella/100 CYO                 0.5        2.3     0.4
      Cryptosporidium/100 CYO               1.6        1.5      -
    ETEC LT/ST or ST-only/100 CYO           0.6        1.1     0.3
        Norovirus GII/100 CYO               1.0        0.7     0.1
      Adenovirus 40,41/100 CYO              0.3        0.5      -
Annual burden of adjusted pathogen-attributable MSD, by age, in
                   children age 0-59 mos. in Pakistan
                                           0-11 m 12-23 m 24-59 m
                                          N=4045 N=4653 N=15,827
            Total MSD cases                 1121      816   452
  Adjusted “Top 5” attributable cases       514       381   228
    Total MSD rate/100 child years          27.7      17.5   2.9
“Top 5” attributable MSD rate/100 CYO       12.7       8.2   1.4
          Rotavirus/100 CYO                  6.6       1.8    -
         Aeromonas/100 CYO                   2.8       1.9   0.7
           Shigella/100 CYO                  1.9       2.0   0.2
     Vibrio cholerae O1/100 CYO              0.9       1.3   0.4
      Cryptosporidium/100 CYO                1.4       1.4    -
      ETEC LT/ST or ST/100 CYO               2.1        -    0.2
         Campylobacter jejuni                1.8        -    0.3
           Adenovirus 40/41                  0.4       0.6    -
               Astrovirus                    0.8        -     -
Annual burden of adjusted pathogen-attributable MSD, by age, in
                    children age 0-59 mos. in Kenya
                                          0-11 m 12-23 m 24-59 m
                                         N=3159 N=4746 N=13,698
            Total MSD cases                 1125    730     690
  Adjusted “Top 5” attributable cases       447     251     155
    Total MSD rate/100 child years          35.6    15.4     5.0
“Top 5” attributable MSD rate/100 CYO       14.2     5.3     1.1
          Rotavirus/100 CYO                  6.7     2.1     0.2
      Cryptosporidium/100 CYO                3.3     1.3     0.1
    ETEC LT/ST or ST-only/100 CYO            2.3     1.1     0.2
           Shigella/100 CYO                  1.5     0.7     0.5
             tEPEC/100 CYO                   1.7     0.5      -
  Non-typhoidal Salmonella/100 CYO            -      0.6     0.2
      Adenovirus 40,41/100 CYO               0.7      -       -
    Entameba histolytica/100 CYO              -      0.2      -
Preliminary analysis
          of mortality data
      from 24 months of GEMS

                   Pakistani child with
                   severe diarrheal
                   dehydration


CVD
Cases                     Controls
                           Died   Survived        CFR   Died   Survived   CFR
Mozambique
                           50        630         7.4%   11       1277     0.9%
[RR 8.6 (4.5, 16.4)]*
Kenya
                           53        1428        3.6%   11       1877     0.6%
[RR 6.1 (3.2, 11.7)]*
Gambia
                           39        991         3.8%    7       1563     0.5%
[RR 7.5 (3.8, 18.9)]*
Mali
                           23        2010        1.1%    5       2059     0.2%
[RR 4.7 (1.8, 12.3)]*
Pakistan
                           16        1241        1.3%    1       1835     0.1%
[RR 23.4 (3.1, 176.0)]*
Bangladesh
                            7        1387        0.5%    1       2464     0.04%
[RR 12.4 (1.5, 100.5)] *
India
                            2        1566        0.1%    1       2013     0.1%
[RR 2.6 (0.2, 28.3)**
Total                      190       9253        2.0%   37      13088     0.3%
[RR 7.1 (5.0, 10.1)*              * p<0.01; **p=0.42
Summary of mortality data
  • An episode of MSD is associated with a 6- to 7-
    fold increase in the risk of death within the
    ensuing ~ 60 days compared to matched controls
      – Range 2.6-fold in India to 23.4-fold in Pakistan
  • When deaths occurred:
      – 35% of deaths occurred within 7 days of enrollment
      – 65% of deaths occurred > 7 days after enrollment
      – 33% of deaths occurred > 21 days after enrollment
  • Where deaths occurred:
      – 44% of cases died at a medical facility
        • 26% of cases died during initial SHC encounter
CVD   – 56% cases died at home or outside a medical facility
Risk factors for fatal disease
In a multivariate model, case fatality was
directly correlated with:
• Younger age
• High HIV prevalent sites (Kenya & Mozambique)
• Offering less than usual to drink during diarrhea
• Low WAZ at enrollment
• Isolation of tEPEC, Cryptosporidium
Case fatality by site and age stratum
                    10                                             Cases     Controls      RR

                    9                                     0-11m     107         22          5.9

                    8
                                                          12-23m     60         12          6.8
  % case fatality




                    7


                    6
                                                          24-59m     23          3          13.5
                    5


                    4


                    3


                    2


                    1


                    0
                         Gambia       Mali   Mozambique    Kenya     India    Bangladesh    Pakistan
CVD
Percent isolation of certain pathogens in fatal and
  non-fatal MSD cases in infants, by age trimester
35                                 p<0.0001
                                                                                   p=0.06
30
                                                                   Fatal cases
25
                                                    p=0.06         Survived cases
20
     p=0.01
                                          p=0.09
                                                                           p=1.0
15                     p=0.25
                                                                  p=0.71
10            p=0.50
 5

 0
     0-3 mths 4-7 mths 8-11 mths   0-3 mths 4-7 mths 8-11 mths   0-3 mths 4-7 mths 8-11 mths

              ETEC-ST                       tEPEC                Cryptosporidium
Percent Cryptosporidium isolation in fatal vs
   30
      non-fatal MSD cases in toddlers
   25
           25%

   20


                  p=0.0024       Fatal MSD
   15
                                 cases
                   11.4%         Survived
   10
                                 MSD cases
   5




   0


             12-23 mos
An episode of MSD significantly impacted
            the linear growth of children
 • At enrollment, cases were comparable to
   controls in stature in both continents and all
   age groups
 • MSD cases had worse linear growth
   outcome than controls (comparing
   anthropometric measurements at enrollment &
   60 days)
      • Africa (-0.11, p = <0.0001)
CVD
      • Asia (-0.07, p=<0.0001)
0-11 months                         AFRICA
                         0-11 months                             12-23 months
                                                               12-23 months                    24-59 months
                                                                                           24-59 months
            0
                 (Cases = closed circles ; Controls=open circles )
                 (HAZ cases = slope of HAZ change between enrollment and 60-day follow up in cases)
          -0.2
                 (HAZ ctrls = slope of HAZ change between enrollment and 60-day follow up in controls)
                 ( slope = difference between mean HAZ cases and HAZ ctrls
          -0.4

                 p=NS
          -0.6
                              Slope p<0.05
          -0.8
z score




                                   HAZ ctrls P<0.05
                                                                    Slope <0.05
           -1                                           p=NS                                      Slope p<0.05


          -1.2 HAZ cases p<0.05                                                        p=NS
                                                                    HAZ ctrls p<0.05            HAZ ctrls p<0.05

          -1.4                         p<0.05

                                                       HAZ cases p<0.05                   HAZ cases p<0.05
          -1.6


          -1.8                                                              P=NS                               p=NS

           -2
                 Enrollment           Follow-up        Enrollment          Follow-up    Enrollment      Follow-up
Serotype                        Cases   % of all case isolates
                                                                 Serotypes of Shigella
S. dysenteriae (any serotype)     55             4.9
S. boydii (any serotype)          62             5.5
                                                                 isolated from 1124
S. sonnei                        269             23.9            GEMS
S. flexneri 1a                    3              0.3             cases:
S. flexneri 1b                    87             7.7
                                                                 S. dysenteriae – 4.9%
S. flexneri 2a                   229             20.4
S. flexneri 2b                   121             10.8
                                                                 S. boydii – 5.5%
S. flexneri 3a                   105             9.3             S. sonnei – 23.9%
S. flexneri 3b                    1              0.1             S. flexneri – 65.7%
S. flexneri 4                     6              0.5
S. flexneri 4a                    24             2.1
S. flexneri 4b                    1              0.1             types 2a + 3a + 6
S. flexneri 4c                    1              0.1             comprised 457 of 738
S. flexneri 5a                    0              0.00
                                                                 S. flexneri strains
S. flexneri 5b                    3              0.3
S. flexneri 6                    123             10.9
S. flexneri X                     9              0.8             2a+3a+6 + S. sonnei
S. flexneri Y                     3              0.3             = 65% of all isolates
“1c” (S. flexneri 7)              22             2.0
Summary comments
 Important insights
 • A small number of pathogens account for ~
   one-half of the MSD burden in the first 2
   years of life (when mortality risk is highest)
 • MSD is associated with a 7-fold increase in
   the risk of death over the ensuing 60 days
 • Whereas MSD cases & controls are equally
   stunted upon enrollment, MSD accelerates
   stunting over the next 60 days
CVD
Proposed actions based on GEMS data
      • Implement licensed rotavirus vaccines
        into the EPI of countries in sub-Saharan
        Africa and South Asia
      • Implement cholera vaccines in high risk
        pre-school populations in young children
      • Given the major role identified for
        Cryptosporidium as a cause of MSD, invest
        to develop:
        – Simple rapid diagnostics
        – Effective therapy
CVD     – Vaccines
      • Implement WASH interventions
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

        It takes a global village of
      investigators, colleagues and
       wise advisers to complete a
CVD         study like the GEMS
GEMS Investigators, Mozambique, 2010




CVD
International Strategic Advisory Committee
                 (GEMS-ISAC)
   Co-Chairs: Prof George Griffin, UK; Prof Zulfiqar
    Bhutta, Pakistan; Prof Fred Binka, Ghana
   Members: G Armah (Ghana), MK Bhan (India), RE
    Black (USA), J Breman (USA), WP Chaicumpa
    (Thailand), T Corrah (Gambia), A Cravioto
    (Bangladedh), V Curtis (UK), G Dougan (UK), K
    Earhardt (USA/India), A Grange (Nigeria),G Kang
    (India), C Lanata (Peru), R Martorell (USA), C
    Morel (Brazil), C Murray (USA), B Nair (India), M
CVD O’Ryan (Chile), P Sansonetti (France), P Smith
    (UK), M Tanner (Switzerland),
Acknowledgments
       Many thanks to the superb investigators and staff at each
      study site, collaborating center, steering committee, and at
         the CVD coordinating center, to the families who have
          graciously participated in this study, and to the Bill &
            Melinda Gates Foundation for financial support.




CVD

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The Global Enteric Multi-Center Study (GEMS): Etiology & Burden of Moderate & Severe Diarrheal Disease in Africa & Asia

  • 1. The Global Enteric Multi-Center Study (GEMS): Etiology & Burden of Moderate & Severe Diarrheal Disease in Africa & Asia Myron M (Mike) Levine, MD, DTPH Grollman Distinguished Professor & Director Center for Vaccine Development, University of Maryland School of Medicine Baltimore, MD 21201, USA PAS Annual Meeting, April 30, 2012 CVD Boston, MA, USA
  • 2. UN Millenium Development Goal # 4 aims to diminish mortality in children < 5 years of age by 67% by 2015 Of the 35 countries with the highest under-five mortality, 34 are in sub-Saharan Africa!!! (State of the World’s Children, UNICEF 2011)
  • 3. Deaths among children < 5 years of age (CHERG data) RE Black et al, Lancet 2010 CVD
  • 4. Clinical syndromes “Simple” gastroenteritis Watery diarrhea, mucus, some vomiting, low-grade fever, malaise, anorexia; dehydration in infants Profuse watery diarrhea Purging of voluminous rice water stools; dehydration of older children & adults Dysentery Blood & mucus in diarrheal stools Persistent diarrhea CVD Continues > 14 days, unabated
  • 5. Some limitations of earlier studies • Few studies from countries with high child mortality • Very few studies from sub-Saharan Africa • Typically only one site studied per report • Often limited to children < 24 months of age • Most had short surveillance (only 6-24 calendar months; too limited to detect cyclical patterns) • Failure to enroll and study matched controls • Lack of census data or linkage to a DSS • Health care utilization patterns not known • Incomplete survey of etiological agents • Insensitive microbiological methods • Strains not characterized for serotype, genotype, etc. • No follow-up of cases & controls
  • 6. GLOBAL ENTERIC MULTI-CENTER STUDY (“GEMS”) Diarrheal disease in infants & young children in developing countries Project Funded by Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation The GEMS Leadership Team: Coordinating Investigator Myron M. (Mike) Levine, M.D., D.T.P.H. Center for Vaccine Development, University of Maryland School of Medicine Principal Investigator, epidemiology & clinical Karen L. Kotloff, M.D. CVD Principal Investigator, microbiology James P. Nataro, M.D., Ph.D. (since 9/2010, Professor & Chair, Dept. of Pediatrics, U. of Virginia)
  • 7. Common protocol to study moderate & severe diarrhea (MSD) • Rigorous epidemiologic case/control & microbiologic design • Defined population under demographic surveillance • 3 age strata: 0-11 mos; 12-23 mos; 24-59 mos • Health Services Utilization & Attitudes Survey (HUAS); 1000/site • 600 analyzable cases & > 600 analyzable matched controls per age group, per each of 7 sites, over 3 years • Record all diarrhea and all MSD cases coming to sentinel sites • Even sampling throughout the year (8-9 cases per age stratum, per fortnight, throughout the enrollment period) • AFRICA & ASIA; rural & urban; high & low HIV; high & low malaria • Record specific clinical syndromes • Utilize modern molecular diagnostic tools • Expanded etiology; serotypes; antigenic types; genotypes • 60-DAY FOLLOW-UP VISITS of cases & controls – Detect deaths; nutritional consequences; (persistent diarrhea) • Water/sanitation risk factor data & economic burden data • SPECIMEN & STRAIN REPOSITORY
  • 8. 4 GEMS Sites in Sub-Saharan Africa CDC/KEMRI, Kisumu, Kenya PI – Robert Breiman MRC Unit, Basse, Gambia PI – Debasish Saha Richard Adegbola Jahangir Hussein CISM, Manhiça, Mozambique PI – Pedro Alonso CVD-Mali, Bamako, Mali PI – Samba Sow 3 GEMS Sites in South Asia Aga Khan University, Pakistan PI – Anita Zaidi NICED, Kolkata, West Bengal, India PI- Dipika Sur ICDDR,B: Mirzapur, Bangladesh PI- ASG Faruque
  • 9. Salient features of the seven GEMS-1 sites Manhiça, Mirzapur, Basse, Bamako, Kisumu, Karachi, Kolkata, Site Mozam- Bangla- Gambia Mali Kenya Pakistan India bique desh Coastal Mostly Mostly Setting Very rural Urban Rural fishing Urban rural rural villages National 67.5 113.7 103.8 53.5 52.5 65.3 49.1 IMR* DSS annual 157,726 210,425 84,206 141,628 254,751 252,346 194,172 pop’n (28,898) (32,526) (16,657) (23,294) (24,077) (24,792) (12,885) (< 5 yrs) Malaria preva- Moderate Moderate Moderate Mod- Low Low Low lence (falling) (falling) erate HIV preva- Low Low High High Low Low Low lence * IMR, infant mortality rate = deaths of infants 0-11 months of age per 1000 live births
  • 10. Some GEMS assumptions • A limited number of etiologic agents may be responsible for a disproportionately large fraction of MSD • MSD seen at SHCs is a proxy for fatal disease in the community • The appropriate epidemiologic design for identifying the relative importance of pathogens associated with MSD is a matched case/control study (MSD uncommon) • We can standardize clinical and lab methods across sites and maintain GCP, GCLP and Quality Control • Making a single 60-day post-enrollment visit to case & control households creates prospective mini-cohorts • Results will facilitate the setting of investment & intervention priorities
  • 11. Study Advisories Steering Committee on Epidemiology/Clinical Issues Fred Binka (Ghana), Eric Mintz (CDC), Paul Stolley (UM), John Clemens (IVI), Halvor Sommerfelt (Bergen), Dani Cohen (Tel Aviv U), Roger Glass (Fogarty) Steering Committee on Microbiologic Issues Roy Robins-Browne (U of Melbourne), Philippe Sansonetti (Institut Pasteur), Patrick Murray (NIH), Duncan Steele (PATH) Steering Committee on Biostatistical Issues Larry Moulton (JHU), Barry Graubard (NCI), Peter Smith (LSTMH), Janet Wittes (Statistics Collaborative), William Pan (Duke) Steering on Nutritional Issues Reynaldo Martorell (Emory), Claudio Lanata (IIN), Rebecca Stoltzfus (Cornell) Consensus -- Case/control protocol & microbiologic methods & analytical strategies were finalized after consultations with the SCs Reference Laboratories
  • 12. MSD case eligibility & enrollment • Age 0-59 mos. & from DSS • Seeking care at a sentinel Health Center (SHC) • Diarrhea (> 3 loose stools in previous 24h) • Diarrhea-free for 7 days before current episode • Episode began within 7 days of enrollment • Diarrhea is moderate or severe, i.e., has > 1 of: – Moderate/severe dehydration: • Sunken eyes • Loss of skin turgor • IV rehydration required CVD – Dysentery (gross blood & mucus) – Hospitalized (clinician’s judgment)
  • 13. Selection of controls • Community controls randomly selected using DSS database • 1-3 controls/case • Matched to case by: – Age (strata are respected) • 0-11 mos: +2 months • 12-59 mos: +4 months – Gender – Same or nearby village – Within 14 days of presentation of case • No diarrhea within 7 days of enrollment • Provides stool sample of acceptable quality • Informed consent
  • 15. Full 36 mos. of ALL SITES GEMS data Controls enrolled Controls enrolled 13,125 6810 6315 A AS Cases enrolled 9524 Cases enrolled RIC 5282 (65%) 4242 IA MSD eligibles 14,753 MSD eligibles AF 9149 (21%) 5604 All cases of diarrhea All cases of diarrhea seen at SHCs 71,364 seen at SHCs 35,984 35,380 CYO < 60 mos in DSS CYO < 60 mos in DSS 483,627 295,164 188,463
  • 16. Pathogens (including Giardia) identified in stool specimens from cases and controls during the first 2 years of GEMS No. of 4 African sites 3 Asian sites pathogens identified Cases (%) Ctrls (%) Cases (%) Ctrls (%) At least 1 79 71 83 70 At least 2 37 29 47 32 At least 3 10 7 16 10
  • 17. Pathogen isolations, India site, 12-23 months age group. 588 cases & 598 controls (3-year data) Pathogen Cases Pathogen Cases Rotavirus 151 Astrovirus 19 Giardia 138 tEPEC 18 Cryptosporidium 98 ETEC - LT only 17 Campylobacter jejuni 83 E. histolytica 14 EAEC 72 Adenovirus non-40-41 11 Norovirus GII 51 Campylobacter coli 5 Shigella 40 Norovirus GI 4 Adenovirus 40/41 29 Aeromonas 2 ST-only ETEC 26 EHEC 2 Sapovirus 24 Non-typhoidal Salmonella 1 V. cholerae O1 21 ETEC - LT/ST 21 aEPEC 21
  • 18. Pathogen isolations, India site, 12-23 months age group. 588 cases & 598 controls (3-year data) Pathogen Cases Ctrls Pathogen Cases Ctrls Rotavirus 151 13 Astrovirus 19 13 Giardia 138 173 tEPEC 18 18 Cryptosporidium 98 60 ETEC - LT only 17 21 Campylobacter jejuni 83 76 E. histolytica 14 4 EAEC 72 82 Adenovirus non-40-41 11 11 Norovirus GII 51 33 Campylobacter coli 5 9 Shigella 40 7 Norovirus GI 4 12 Adenovirus 40/41 29 4 Aeromonas 2 5 ETEC - ST-only 26 9 EHEC 2 0 Sapovirus 24 15 Non-typhoidal Salmonella 1 2 V. cholerae O1 21 2 ETEC - LT/ST 21 6 aEPEC 21 66
  • 19. Attributable Fraction (AF) Grappling with the issue of enteric pathogens in matched controls without diarrhea • Fraction of all MSD (moderate & severe diarrhea) cases attributable to (presumably caused by) a particular pathogen • Fraction of MSD cases or MSD incidence rate that could theoretically be eliminated if the pathogen were eliminated Grappling with the issue of multiple enteric pathogens in cases & controls • Bruzzi et al (AJE 1985) allows AF to be calculated while CVD taking into account the presence of other pathogens • Allows AF for a group of pathogens (e.g., “Top 5”)
  • 20. India, age 12-23 months: 588 cases, 598 controls (3 years of data) Cases Ctrls Adj With With Adj Attrib Pathogen Pathogen Pathogen OR p-value AF Cases Rotavirus 151 13 21.1 <0.0001 0.278 144 Cryptosporidium 98 60 2.1 0.002 0.088 52 Shigella 40 7 14.6 <0.0001 0.063 37 LT/ST or ST-only 47 15 3.8 <0.0001 0.059 35 Adenovirus 40/41 29 4 11.1 <0.0001 0.045 26 V. cholerae O1 21 2 10.4 0.001 0.032 19 E. histolytica 14 4 5.4 0.045 0.019 11
  • 21. Pathogen-specific adjusted attributable fractions, 0-11 months age group, “Top 5” analysis (3 yrs of data) 0-11 m Gambia Kenya Mali Mozam India Bangla Pakistan Total cases 400 673 727 374 672 550 633 #1 RV RV RV RV RV RV RV (23%) (19%) (21%) (32%) (28%) (17%) (23%) #2 Crypto Crypto Crypto Crypto Crypto Shigella Aeromon (11%) (9%) (14%) (14%) (13%) (13%) (11%) #3 Noro-GII ETEC ST or ETEC ST or ETEC ST or Adeno C. jejuni ETEC ST or (7%) LT/ST (6%) LT/ST (4%) LT/ST (3%) 40/41 (4%) (10%) LT/ST (7%) #4 ETEC ST or tEPEC Adeno Adeno ETEC ST or Aeromo Shigella LT/ST (4%) (5%) 40/41 (2%) 40/41 (2%) LT/ST (3%) (10%) (7%) #5 Shigella Shigella Shigella Crypto Crypto (4%) (4%) (2%) (6%) (4%) “Top 5” - % of all cases 47% 40% 38% 47% 46% 49% 46%
  • 22. Pathogen-specific adjusted attributable fractions 12-23 months age group, “Top 5”analysis (3 yrs of data) 12-23 m Gambia Kenya Mali Mozam India Bangla Pakistan Total cases 455 410 682 194 588 476 399 #1 RV RV RV Crypto RV Shigella Shigella (17%) (14%) (12%) (9%) (24%) (53%) (11%) #2 Shigella Crypto Crypto ETEC ST or Crypto RV Aeromon (12%) (8%) (4%) LT/ST (9%) (9%) (17%) (11%) #3 Noro-GII ETEC ST or ETEC ST or Shigella Shigella Aeromon RV (8%) LT/ST (7%) LT/ST (3%) (6%) (6%) (11%) (10%) #4 Crypto Shigella Shigella RV ETEC ST or EAEC Crypto (8%) (4%) (2%) (5%) LT/ST (6%) (9%) (8%) #5 ETEC ST or NTS - C. jejuni Noro-GII V. chol V. chol LT/ST (6%) (4%) (2%) (5%) O1 (1%) O1 (8%) “Top 5” - % all cases 45% 34% 20% 36% 45% 76% 47%
  • 23. Pathogen-specific adjusted attributable fractions 24-59 months age group. “Top 5” analysis (3 yrs of data) 24-59 m Gambia Kenya Mali Mozam India Bangla Pakistan Total cases 174 393 624 112 308 368 226 #1 RV Shigella RV Shigella RV Shigella Aeromonas (13%) (9%) (3%) (17%) (14%) (69%) (25%) #2 Shigella ETEC ST or E. histolyt V. chol O1 Shigella Aeromon V. chol O1 (13%) LT/ST (5%) (2%) (8%) (11%) (5%) (13%) #3 ETEC ST or NTS Shigella - C. jejuni V. chol O1 C. jejuni LT/ST (8%) (4%) (2%) (10%) (3%) (12%) #4 Noro-GII RV - - V. chol O1 NTS Shigella (8%) (3%) (8%) (2%) (9%) #5 - Crypto - - ETEC ST or - ETEC ST or (3%) LT/ST (7%) LT/ST (5%) “Top 5 - % all cases 38% 22% 7% 24% 44% 77% 51%
  • 24. Some broad observations • “Top 5” pathogens predominate but differ by age stratum • Specific effective interventions against a small number of pathogens can have a notable impact • New potential priorities identified: – Cryptosporidium – C. jejuni and perhaps Aeromonas in Asia – Adenovirus 40,41? NV GII? • WHO pathogen priority list corroborated – Rotavirus, ETEC, Shigella, V. cholerae O1 • A proportion of diarrhea cases do not have attribution – Other etiologies? Promiscuous antibiotic usage? CVD • All sites & ages, Giardia associated with a significantly lower likelihood of MSD (i.e., appears “protective”)
  • 25. Probability of MSD case visiting SHC within 7 days of onset (“r”) r is estimated • From pooled HUAS-lite data • Using life table (Kaplan-Meier) analysis, to adjust for HUAS-lite interviews occurring within 7 days of onset of diarrhea CVD
  • 26. Annual burden (cases & incidence) of adjusted pathogen-attributable MSD, by age, in children age 0-59 mos. in rural Gambia 0-11 m 12-23 m 24-59 m N=5708 N=6230 N=17,139 Total MSD cases 789 1232 513 Adjusted “Top 5” attributable cases 369 561 196 Total MSD rate/100 CYO 13.8 19.8 3.0 “Top 5” attributable MSD rate/100 CYO 6.5 9.0 1.1 Rotavirus/100 CYO 3.2 3.4 0.4 Shigella/100 CYO 0.5 2.3 0.4 Cryptosporidium/100 CYO 1.6 1.5 - ETEC LT/ST or ST-only/100 CYO 0.6 1.1 0.3 Norovirus GII/100 CYO 1.0 0.7 0.1 Adenovirus 40,41/100 CYO 0.3 0.5 -
  • 27. Annual burden of adjusted pathogen-attributable MSD, by age, in children age 0-59 mos. in Pakistan 0-11 m 12-23 m 24-59 m N=4045 N=4653 N=15,827 Total MSD cases 1121 816 452 Adjusted “Top 5” attributable cases 514 381 228 Total MSD rate/100 child years 27.7 17.5 2.9 “Top 5” attributable MSD rate/100 CYO 12.7 8.2 1.4 Rotavirus/100 CYO 6.6 1.8 - Aeromonas/100 CYO 2.8 1.9 0.7 Shigella/100 CYO 1.9 2.0 0.2 Vibrio cholerae O1/100 CYO 0.9 1.3 0.4 Cryptosporidium/100 CYO 1.4 1.4 - ETEC LT/ST or ST/100 CYO 2.1 - 0.2 Campylobacter jejuni 1.8 - 0.3 Adenovirus 40/41 0.4 0.6 - Astrovirus 0.8 - -
  • 28. Annual burden of adjusted pathogen-attributable MSD, by age, in children age 0-59 mos. in Kenya 0-11 m 12-23 m 24-59 m N=3159 N=4746 N=13,698 Total MSD cases 1125 730 690 Adjusted “Top 5” attributable cases 447 251 155 Total MSD rate/100 child years 35.6 15.4 5.0 “Top 5” attributable MSD rate/100 CYO 14.2 5.3 1.1 Rotavirus/100 CYO 6.7 2.1 0.2 Cryptosporidium/100 CYO 3.3 1.3 0.1 ETEC LT/ST or ST-only/100 CYO 2.3 1.1 0.2 Shigella/100 CYO 1.5 0.7 0.5 tEPEC/100 CYO 1.7 0.5 - Non-typhoidal Salmonella/100 CYO - 0.6 0.2 Adenovirus 40,41/100 CYO 0.7 - - Entameba histolytica/100 CYO - 0.2 -
  • 29. Preliminary analysis of mortality data from 24 months of GEMS Pakistani child with severe diarrheal dehydration CVD
  • 30. Cases Controls Died Survived CFR Died Survived CFR Mozambique 50 630 7.4% 11 1277 0.9% [RR 8.6 (4.5, 16.4)]* Kenya 53 1428 3.6% 11 1877 0.6% [RR 6.1 (3.2, 11.7)]* Gambia 39 991 3.8% 7 1563 0.5% [RR 7.5 (3.8, 18.9)]* Mali 23 2010 1.1% 5 2059 0.2% [RR 4.7 (1.8, 12.3)]* Pakistan 16 1241 1.3% 1 1835 0.1% [RR 23.4 (3.1, 176.0)]* Bangladesh 7 1387 0.5% 1 2464 0.04% [RR 12.4 (1.5, 100.5)] * India 2 1566 0.1% 1 2013 0.1% [RR 2.6 (0.2, 28.3)** Total 190 9253 2.0% 37 13088 0.3% [RR 7.1 (5.0, 10.1)* * p<0.01; **p=0.42
  • 31. Summary of mortality data • An episode of MSD is associated with a 6- to 7- fold increase in the risk of death within the ensuing ~ 60 days compared to matched controls – Range 2.6-fold in India to 23.4-fold in Pakistan • When deaths occurred: – 35% of deaths occurred within 7 days of enrollment – 65% of deaths occurred > 7 days after enrollment – 33% of deaths occurred > 21 days after enrollment • Where deaths occurred: – 44% of cases died at a medical facility • 26% of cases died during initial SHC encounter CVD – 56% cases died at home or outside a medical facility
  • 32. Risk factors for fatal disease In a multivariate model, case fatality was directly correlated with: • Younger age • High HIV prevalent sites (Kenya & Mozambique) • Offering less than usual to drink during diarrhea • Low WAZ at enrollment • Isolation of tEPEC, Cryptosporidium
  • 33. Case fatality by site and age stratum 10 Cases Controls RR 9 0-11m 107 22 5.9 8 12-23m 60 12 6.8 % case fatality 7 6 24-59m 23 3 13.5 5 4 3 2 1 0 Gambia Mali Mozambique Kenya India Bangladesh Pakistan CVD
  • 34. Percent isolation of certain pathogens in fatal and non-fatal MSD cases in infants, by age trimester 35 p<0.0001 p=0.06 30 Fatal cases 25 p=0.06 Survived cases 20 p=0.01 p=0.09 p=1.0 15 p=0.25 p=0.71 10 p=0.50 5 0 0-3 mths 4-7 mths 8-11 mths 0-3 mths 4-7 mths 8-11 mths 0-3 mths 4-7 mths 8-11 mths ETEC-ST tEPEC Cryptosporidium
  • 35. Percent Cryptosporidium isolation in fatal vs 30 non-fatal MSD cases in toddlers 25 25% 20 p=0.0024 Fatal MSD 15 cases 11.4% Survived 10 MSD cases 5 0 12-23 mos
  • 36. An episode of MSD significantly impacted the linear growth of children • At enrollment, cases were comparable to controls in stature in both continents and all age groups • MSD cases had worse linear growth outcome than controls (comparing anthropometric measurements at enrollment & 60 days) • Africa (-0.11, p = <0.0001) CVD • Asia (-0.07, p=<0.0001)
  • 37. 0-11 months AFRICA 0-11 months 12-23 months 12-23 months 24-59 months 24-59 months 0 (Cases = closed circles ; Controls=open circles ) (HAZ cases = slope of HAZ change between enrollment and 60-day follow up in cases) -0.2 (HAZ ctrls = slope of HAZ change between enrollment and 60-day follow up in controls) ( slope = difference between mean HAZ cases and HAZ ctrls -0.4 p=NS -0.6  Slope p<0.05 -0.8 z score HAZ ctrls P<0.05  Slope <0.05 -1 p=NS  Slope p<0.05 -1.2 HAZ cases p<0.05 p=NS HAZ ctrls p<0.05 HAZ ctrls p<0.05 -1.4 p<0.05 HAZ cases p<0.05 HAZ cases p<0.05 -1.6 -1.8 P=NS p=NS -2 Enrollment Follow-up Enrollment Follow-up Enrollment Follow-up
  • 38.
  • 39.
  • 40. Serotype Cases % of all case isolates Serotypes of Shigella S. dysenteriae (any serotype) 55 4.9 S. boydii (any serotype) 62 5.5 isolated from 1124 S. sonnei 269 23.9 GEMS S. flexneri 1a 3 0.3 cases: S. flexneri 1b 87 7.7 S. dysenteriae – 4.9% S. flexneri 2a 229 20.4 S. flexneri 2b 121 10.8 S. boydii – 5.5% S. flexneri 3a 105 9.3 S. sonnei – 23.9% S. flexneri 3b 1 0.1 S. flexneri – 65.7% S. flexneri 4 6 0.5 S. flexneri 4a 24 2.1 S. flexneri 4b 1 0.1 types 2a + 3a + 6 S. flexneri 4c 1 0.1 comprised 457 of 738 S. flexneri 5a 0 0.00 S. flexneri strains S. flexneri 5b 3 0.3 S. flexneri 6 123 10.9 S. flexneri X 9 0.8 2a+3a+6 + S. sonnei S. flexneri Y 3 0.3 = 65% of all isolates “1c” (S. flexneri 7) 22 2.0
  • 41. Summary comments Important insights • A small number of pathogens account for ~ one-half of the MSD burden in the first 2 years of life (when mortality risk is highest) • MSD is associated with a 7-fold increase in the risk of death over the ensuing 60 days • Whereas MSD cases & controls are equally stunted upon enrollment, MSD accelerates stunting over the next 60 days CVD
  • 42. Proposed actions based on GEMS data • Implement licensed rotavirus vaccines into the EPI of countries in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia • Implement cholera vaccines in high risk pre-school populations in young children • Given the major role identified for Cryptosporidium as a cause of MSD, invest to develop: – Simple rapid diagnostics – Effective therapy CVD – Vaccines • Implement WASH interventions
  • 43. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS It takes a global village of investigators, colleagues and wise advisers to complete a CVD study like the GEMS
  • 45. International Strategic Advisory Committee (GEMS-ISAC) Co-Chairs: Prof George Griffin, UK; Prof Zulfiqar Bhutta, Pakistan; Prof Fred Binka, Ghana Members: G Armah (Ghana), MK Bhan (India), RE Black (USA), J Breman (USA), WP Chaicumpa (Thailand), T Corrah (Gambia), A Cravioto (Bangladedh), V Curtis (UK), G Dougan (UK), K Earhardt (USA/India), A Grange (Nigeria),G Kang (India), C Lanata (Peru), R Martorell (USA), C Morel (Brazil), C Murray (USA), B Nair (India), M CVD O’Ryan (Chile), P Sansonetti (France), P Smith (UK), M Tanner (Switzerland),
  • 46. Acknowledgments Many thanks to the superb investigators and staff at each study site, collaborating center, steering committee, and at the CVD coordinating center, to the families who have graciously participated in this study, and to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation for financial support. CVD