Federgon members (private employment agencies) can expect a slight improvement in market conditions in the coming months due to the somewhat more favorable economic outlook. Even with a growth forecast of 1% to 1.2% in 2014 recovery will only be partial.

1. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
« The only way is up? »
September 2013

2. TABLE OF CONTENTS
1
2
3
4
BELGIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS
LABOUR MARKET
GLOBAL ECONOMY WORLDWIDE
SUMMARY

3. THE BELGIAN ECONOMY GROWS SLIGHTLY IN 2ND QUARTER
Source: NBB
1
GDP Growth
Q2|13 vs Q1|13 +0,2%
Q2|13 vs Q2|12 0,0%
Components GDP Growth Q2|13 vs Q1|13
Added Value Investments
Industry +0,4% Enterprises +0,7%
Construction -0,4% Housing -0,9%
Services +0,2% Public Authority -6,3%
Final Consumption
Private Consumption +0,2% Net Export +0,2%
Public Consumption +0,1% Stocks -0,1%

4. CONSUMERS TOO CONFIDENT?
Consumer expects employment to rise, economists expect the opposite…
Optimism due to stabilisation of financial household welfare
Source: NBB
1
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
1|2007
3|2007
5|2007
7|2007
9|2007
11|2007
1|2008
3|2008
5|2008
7|2008
9|2008
11|2008
1|2009
3|2009
5|2009
7|2009
9|2009
11|2009
1|2010
3|2010
5|2010
7|2010
9|2010
11|2010
1|2011
3|2011
5|2011
7|2011
9|2011
11|2011
1|2012
3|2012
5|2012
7|2012
9|2012
11|2012
1|2013
3|2013
5|2013
7|2013
Consumentenvertrouwen | La confiance des consommateurs

5. BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDICATOR INCREASING SLOWLY
Improvement in Manufacturing Industry, Business related services & Trade
more favourable assessment of orderbooks
The economic climate nearly stabilised in the building industry.
Source: NBB
1
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1|2007
3|2007
5|2007
7|2007
9|2007
11|2007
1|2008
3|2008
5|2008
7|2008
9|2008
11|2008
1|2009
3|2009
5|2009
7|2009
9|2009
11|2009
1|2010
3|2010
5|2010
7|2010
9|2010
11|2010
1|2011
3|2011
5|2011
7|2011
9|2011
11|2011
1|2012
3|2012
5|2012
7|2012
9|2012
11|2012
1|2013
3|2013
5|2013
7|2013
Ondernemersvertrouwen | La confiance des chefs d'entreprise

6. LOW INFLATION RATE (TEMPORARILY?)
Yoy growth rates in %, the values in the grey area are forecasts
Inflation: Year Averages
2011 3,53%
2012 2,84%
2013 1,20% (e)
2014 1,30% (e)
Low inflation due to low vegetable & energy prices
Inflation expected to rise :
following unrest in the Middle-East
Growing demand due to European & American recovery
Inflation in the Netherlands: +3,1%
European inflation: 1,6% (July)
1
Source: www.plan.be

7. BELGIAN ECONOMY STILL VULNERABLE
Little action so far to improve Belgian’s weak points:
1. Large souvereign debt: 101,1% of GDP
2. Increasing public spending: 54,9% of GDP
3. Loss of international market share
4. Unprepared Social Security System confronted by inevitably ageing population
5. Overvalued housing market
GDP expected to grow in 2014
Source: NBB & Petercam
1
NBB +1,1%
European Commission +1,2%

8. GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS
Source: World Economic Forum
1
Country/Economy Rank 13-14 Score Rank 11-12 Change
Switzerland 1 5,67 1 0
Singapore 2 5,61 2 0
Finland 3 5,54 3 0
Germany 4 5,51 6 2
United States 5 5,48 7 2
Sweden 6 5,48 4 -2
Hong Kong SAR 7 5,47 9 2
Netherlands 8 5,42 5 -3
Japan 9 5,40 10 1
United Kingdom 10 5,37 8 -2
Norway 11 5,33 15 4
Qatar 13 5,24 11 -2
Canada 14 5,20 14 0
Denmark 15 5,18 12 -3
Austria 16 5,15 16 0
Belgium 17 5,13 17 0
Luxembourg 22 5,09 22 0
France 23 5,05 21 -2
Korea, Rep. 25 5,01 19 -6
China 29 4,84 29 0
Turkey 44 4,45 43 -1
Portugal 51 4,40 49 -2
South Africa 53 4,37 52 -1
Brazil 56 4,33 48 -8
India 60 4,28 59 -1
Russian Federation 64 4,25 67 3
Greece 91 3,93 96 5
Global Competitiveness Report
Belgium is ranked 17th
Same rank as two years ago
NO DETERIORATION, NOR IMPROVEMENT
The high tax rate discourages
working and investment.
Rigid labor market weighs on
our competitiveness.

9. BELGIAN UNEMPLOYMENT AT HIGHEST LEVEL IN 14 YEARS
Source: Eurostat
2009-2010 | 1st dip: Labourhourding
2012-2013 | 2nd dip: Redundancies
Working population grows faster than
number of jobs
Unemployment increases
8,9% in Belgium
12,1% in Europe
2
Employment slightly decreases
Q1|13: 4,54 million jobs
13.600 less than Q1|12

10. THE SALARIED EMPLOYMENT RATE CONTINUES TO FALL…
Source: RSZ | ONSS
2
… both in number of jobs as in volume
Q1|13 vs Q4|12 Jobs -0,9%  Increasing pressure on social security
Hours -1,2%  Sustainability?
Employment volume in FTE
Number of jobs

11. Q1 ’13: THE SALARIED EMPLOYMENT RATE CONTINUES TO FALL
Source: RSZ | ONSS
Sector Jobs Volume (in hours)
Industry -2,3% -4,7%
 Continuous downsizing of
industrial employment
Commercial Services -1,0% -0,6%
Non-Commercial Services +0,3% +0,9%
2

12. JOBVACANCIES & TAW
Source: Actiris, FOREM & VDAB
2
Jobvacancies in Flanders -8,6%
(August‘13 vs
August ‘12)
Regular jobs -12,2%
Student jobs +17,4%
Temporary jobs -12,7%
Jobvacancies in Brussels +15,4%
Jobvacancies in Wallonia -16,2%
(July ‘13 vs July ‘12)
Regular jobs -18,8%
Temporary jobs -13,5%

13. STABILIZING FEDERGON TAW-INDEX?
Source: NBB
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
290
07-02
09-02
11-02
01-03
03-03
05-03
07-03
09-03
11-03
01-04
03-04
05-04
07-04
09-04
11-04
01-05
03-05
05-05
07-05
09-05
11-05
01-06
03-06
05-06
07-06
09-06
11-06
01-07
03-07
05-07
07-07
09-07
11-07
01-08
03-08
05-08
07-08
09-08
11-08
01-09
03-09
05-09
07-09
09-09
11-09
01-10
03-10
05-10
07-10
09-10
11-10
01-11
03-11
05-11
07-11
09-11
11-11
01-12
03-12
05-12
07-12
09-12
11-12
01-13
03-13
05-13
07-13
2
Bottoming out of TAW*-activity on -15% of volume on a Y/Y-2 base
* TAW = Temporary Agency Work
(July ‘13 vs
July ‘12)
Total -4,6%
Blue Collar -5,9%
White Collar -2,9%
Students -6,6%

14. ECONOMY WORLDWIDE
Source: OECD
“A moderate recovery is underway in the major advanced economies, according to the OECD’s
latest Interim Economic Assessment. Growth is proceeding at encouraging rates in North
America, Japan and the UK. The euro area as a whole is out of recession, although output remains
weak in a number of countries.”
“Gradual pick-up in momentum
in the advanced economies is
encouraging but a sustainable
recovery is not yet firmly
established. Major risks remain.
The euro area is still vulnerable
to renewed financial markets,
banking and sovereign debt
tensions. High levels of debt in
some emerging markets have
increased their vulnerability to
financial shocks.”
-1,8%
0,3%
0,7%
1,5%
1,6%
1,7%
2,0%
7,4%
Italy
France
Germany
UK
Japan
USA
Canada
China
Expected Growth in
2013
3

15. UNITED STATES: MAKINGS OF A STRONG RECOVERY3
GDP Growth Q2|13 vs Q2|12 +1,7%
Q3|13 vs Q3|12 +2,5% (forecast)
Lowering welfare demand, but 7,5% unemployment rate still far above pre-crisis level
Rising consumerspending due to higher wages & more jobs
Healthy retail sales
Rising production orders
Housing recovery is built on solid foundations
Consumer debt has plunged
Banks are keen to lend
Shale gas boosts the supply-side
→ Only in America the growth
acceleration is likely to last
USA: ENGINE OF GLOBAL GROWTH

16. EUROPE: FAR FROM THERE
Source: The Economist
3
-0,2%
-0,2%
-0,1%
0,1%
0,3%
0,5%
0,6%
0,7%
0,7%
1,1%
-0,5% 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5%
Italy
Netherlands
Spain
Belgium
Euro Area
France
UK
Finland
Germany
Portugal
GDP-growth Q2|13 vs Q1|13
GDP Growth Q2|13 vs Q2|12 +1,1%
After a year and half of recession, the euro area’s economy has begun to grow again.
Extreme austerity has been abandoned
CAUTION! Microeconomic conditions do not point to a recovery that is both rapid & lasting
Output in Europe is 3% lower compared
to the output before the crisis (In the
USA it is 4% higher)
GDP for the whole of 2013 would be
0,6% lower in the Eurozone
Expected GDP growth 2014: +0,9%
The lack of a banking union creates
uncertainty, creating a dysfunctional
credit market: Europe’s recovery will
not accelerate until this is fixed

17. CHINA: IN TRANSITION, NOT THE ENGINE FOR GLOBAL GROWTH3
GDP Growth 2013 vs 2012 +7,5%
Government settles for stabilizing economy
The main monthly indicators, from trade to industrial output, improved in july
CAUTION! China will avoid a hard landing but will not be a spur for global growth.
Real estate prizes keep going up: housing bubble danger persists
The investment rate remains unsustainble high: 48% of GDP
The debt ratio (debt that China’s firms, households and government owe) has risen
to 200% of GDP
Growth not expected to grow faster. China’s economy is on the verge of economic
transition:
From an investment-led economy to a consumption driven:
A FRAGILE RECOVERY THAT RELIES HEAVILY ON AMERICA.

18. STOCK MARKETS
The prospect of growth makes European stocks & bonds attractive again. The European stock markets
are finding momentum.
Source: Euronext
95,0
100,0
105,0
110,0
115,0
120,0
125,0 Index Bel20
Index CAC40
Index Dow Jones
3

19. SUMMARY4
Several economic indicators point out that the bottom of the economic downturn may
have been reached. The Belgian GDP has risen on a quarterly basis and both consumer as
business confidence have gone up.
The recovery however is fragile. GDP just stabilised on a yearly basis, with some Belgian
GDP-components further deteriorating. The labour market, for example, still surfers from
a loss of employment, in volume as well as in jobs.
The situation in the Eurozone is comparable. Several Euro-members signal positive GDP-
growth, although the economy stays vulnerable. For further growth Europe relies on the
expansion of other economies.
Therefore all eyes are set on the United States. The revival of the American economy is
believed to be lasting. In doing so, it gives the Chinese economy the necessary fuel to
handle it’s transition to a mature economy.
Federgon members can expect a slight improvement in market conditions in the
coming months due to the somewhat more favorable economic outlook. Even with a
growth forecast of 1% to 1.2% in 2014 recovery will only be partial.

20. CONTACT
RESEARCH & ECONOMIC AFFAIRS DEPARTMENT
PAUL VERSCHUEREN
THIBAUT PRINCEN
HAVENLAAN 86C BTE 302 - 1000 BRUSSEL
AVENUE DU PORT 86C BTE 302 - 1000 BRUXELLES
TEL: 02/203 38 03
FAX: 02/203 42 68
STAT@FEDERGON.BE