The curse of efficiency

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Of all the species on the planet we are alone in optimizing anything and everything. But this is not a route to long term sustainability, and to move on from the destructive vice of manufacturing more and more for the few, to a world of providing sufficient for the many, we have to think and act very differently. Today’s technologies and production methods cannot achieve an equitable, stable and sustainable future for mankind, but future tech probably can. The key starting point lies at the cusp of nano, bio, artificial life and artificial intelligence, and our key challenge is to understand and master complexity. These components lie at the heart of (virtually) lossless repurposing, reuse and recycling and minimal energy consumption. We have to move on to material printing and programing instead of machining and forging; tagging and tracking instead of destruction and dumping; organic symbiosis instead of environmental destruction. Is there an existence theorem for this hypothesis? Look no further than mother nature! She optimizes and wastes nothing, always goes for low energy and low material consumption, recycles efficiently whilst achieving impressive resiliency. Can we do the same ? Almost certainly, but we have to rethink our ‘short termism and quick win’ modes of operation, and we have to adopt methods and solutions focused on the long term future. We also have to adopt ‘good enough’ strategies instead of extreme optimization. In turn, this demands a partnership and symbiosis with our machines to overcome our fundamental human limitations precluding us achieving these goals unaided.

Empresariales Tecnología

The Curse of Optimization
Future sustainability, technology, industry and society

Peter Cochrane
cochrane .org.uk
ca-global.org

COCHRANE
a s s o c i a t e s
Wednesday, 6 November 13

In a

connected
of

world

finite
resources

a stove-piped
is

dangerous
Wednesday, 6 November 13

View

Optimizing by € € € € alone
leads to brittleness and
instability often with
severe ecological
and social
damage

Wednesday, 6 November 13

Countries, companies & economies

that look like this
are short lived

Today’s ﬁnancial systems
only produce one result
Wednesday, 6 November 13

In the long
term this is
fundamentally
impossible...
...you can’t
have it all at
the same time!

Wednesday, 6 November 13

This is what business schools
teach budding managers, but
it is incomplete, and
it is wrong!

Wednesday, 6 November 13

Brit

tlen

ess

This is what business schools
teach budding managers, but
it is incomplete, and
it is wrong!

Wednesday, 6 November 13

Brit

tlen

ess

Cost of
Ownership

This is what business schools
teach budding managers, but
it is incomplete, and
it is wrong!

Wednesday, 6 November 13

Efﬁciency - far more sophisticated than
ripping out cost or sweating assets
€€€

η

Efﬁciency
Wednesday, 6 November 13

𝓷

Efﬁciency - far more sophisticated than
ripping out cost or sweating assets
€€€

Failure free
operating cost
with efﬁciency f1(𝓷)

Efﬁciency
Wednesday, 6 November 13

η

𝓷

Efﬁciency - far more sophisticated than
ripping out cost or sweating assets
€€€
Failure cost with
efﬁciency f2(𝓷)
Failure free
operating cost
with efﬁciency f1(𝓷)

Efﬁciency
Wednesday, 6 November 13

η

𝓷

Efﬁciency - far more sophisticated than
ripping out cost or sweating assets
€€€

Optimum cost efﬁciency is
at the point (𝓷) where:

Failure cost with
efﬁciency f2(𝓷)
Failure free
operating cost
with efﬁciency f1(𝓷)

Efﬁciency
Wednesday, 6 November 13

η

𝓷

Wednesday, 6 November 13

se
ca
st
or
w
he
T

Only humans optimize...
Mother Nature goes for
good enough....

se
ca
...and in doing so achieves sustainable
st
or
w
relationships....a symbiosis....
he
T

Wednesday, 6 November 13

€€€€

The minimum
decision set

Society

Ecology
Wednesday, 6 November 13

te
ch
no
lo
gy

€€€€

The minimum
decision set

Society

Ecology

Wednesday, 6 November 13

Even more fundamental to all this is the
advance and adoption of new technology
that is unpredicted/not fully understood
Wednesday, 6 November 13

im
po
ss
ib
le
is

im
t

p
o
y
b

Su

st
ain
ab
ilit

y

g
in
iz

old processes
and industries
Wednesday, 6 November 13

The Future
Bio

Nano

AI, AL
ITC

Wednesday, 6 November 13

Printing
Instructing
Networking
Collaborating
Programming
Repurposing
Recycling
Reusing

Machines are the
biggest communicators
on the Plane t
They dominate manufacture and production and
are moving into design and general knowledge,
modeling and decision support

Wednesday, 6 November 13

They need
The Cloud
even more
than we do !

Wednesday, 6 November 13

The Internet cannot
scale to 9Bn people
and over 50Bn
machines on
line, but
Clouds
can

Wednesday, 6 November 13

We are increasingly
defeated by complexity,
but our machines are not !
Wednesday, 6 November 13

We are increasingly
defeated by complexity,
but our on
machines are not
Now outgunning humans
general and speciﬁc knowledge
Wednesday, 6 November 13

Half Life of
Knowledge
Physics
~13 yrs

Medical
~ 4 yrs

Software
~ 4 yrs
Wednesday, 6 November 13

Economics
~ 9 yrs

Marine Bio
~ 2 yrs

ITC is vital to
our symbiosis

Material Technology
the biggest game
changer for industry
and sustainability

Wednesday, 6 November 13

Thank You
ca-global.org
cochrane.org.uk

COCHRANE
a s s o c i a t e s

Wednesday, 6 November 13

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In a world that appears riven by social media, ill-informed opinion, rumour, and conspiracy theories in preference to facts and established truths, it can be alarming to see scientists, doctors, and engineers challenged by vacuous statements that often hold sway over the hard-won truths of science. Moreover, large numbers of people do not understand the ‘scientific method’ and what makes it so powerful. Paradoxically, those challenging science and scientists based on their belief systems do so using technologies that can only be furnished by scientific methodologies. For sure; no religion, belief system, great political mind, anarchist, professional protester, or social commentator will produce a TV set, mobile phone, laptop, tablet, supercomputer, MRI Scanner, AI system, or vaccine! But they will criticise, challenge, and be abusive based on their ignorance and inability. So, this is the world that now influences the minds of young aspiring students, and this presentation is designed to go beyond the simple exposition and statement of the scientific principles and method, to provide an ancient, modern, and forward-looking perspective. It also includes a complex ‘worked example’ to highlight the rigour that must be applied to establish any truth!

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University of Hertfordshire

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The curse of efficiency

1. The Curse of Optimization Future sustainability, technology, industry and society Peter Cochrane cochrane .org.uk ca-global.org COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s Wednesday, 6 November 13

2. In a connected of world finite resources a stove-piped is dangerous Wednesday, 6 November 13 View

3. Optimizing by € € € € alone leads to brittleness and instability often with severe ecological and social damage Wednesday, 6 November 13

4. Countries, companies & economies that look like this are short lived Today’s ﬁnancial systems only produce one result Wednesday, 6 November 13

5. In the long term this is fundamentally impossible... ...you can’t have it all at the same time! Wednesday, 6 November 13

6. This is what business schools teach budding managers, but it is incomplete, and it is wrong! Wednesday, 6 November 13

7. Brit tlen ess This is what business schools teach budding managers, but it is incomplete, and it is wrong! Wednesday, 6 November 13

8. Brit tlen ess Cost of Ownership This is what business schools teach budding managers, but it is incomplete, and it is wrong! Wednesday, 6 November 13

9. Efﬁciency - far more sophisticated than ripping out cost or sweating assets €€€ η Efﬁciency Wednesday, 6 November 13 𝓷

10. Efficiency - far more sophisticated than ripping out cost or sweating assets €€€ Failure free operating cost with efficiency f1(𝓷) Efficiency Wednesday, 6 November 13 η 𝓷

11. Efficiency - far more sophisticated than ripping out cost or sweating assets €€€ Failure cost with efficiency f2(𝓷) Failure free operating cost with efficiency f1(𝓷) Efficiency Wednesday, 6 November 13 η 𝓷

12. Efficiency - far more sophisticated than ripping out cost or sweating assets €€€ Optimum cost efficiency is at the point (𝓷) where: Failure cost with efficiency f2(𝓷) Failure free operating cost with efficiency f1(𝓷) Efficiency Wednesday, 6 November 13 η 𝓷

13. Efficiency - far more sophisticated than ripping out cost or sweating assets €€€ Optimum cost efficiency is at the point (𝓷) where: Failure cost with efficiency f2(𝓷) Failure free operating cost with efficiency f1(𝓷) Efficiency Wednesday, 6 November 13 f1’(𝓷) + f2’(𝓷) = 0 η 𝓷

14. Efficiency - far more sophisticated than ripping out cost or sweating assets €€€ Optimum cost efficiency is at the point (𝓷) where: Failure cost with efficiency f2(𝓷) Failure free operating cost with efficiency f1(𝓷) Efficiency Wednesday, 6 November 13 f1’(𝓷) + f2’(𝓷) = 0 For the specific exponential case: η 𝓷

15. Efficiency - far more sophisticated than ripping out cost or sweating assets €€€ Optimum cost efficiency is at the point (𝓷) where: Failure cost with efficiency f2(𝓷) Failure free operating cost with efficiency f1(𝓷) Efficiency Wednesday, 6 November 13 f1’(𝓷) + f2’(𝓷) = 0 For the specific exponential case: η C = Aexp(-a. 𝓷) + Bexp(b. 𝓷) 𝓷

16. Efficiency - far more sophisticated than ripping out cost or sweating assets €€€ Optimum cost efficiency is at the point (𝓷) where: Failure cost with efficiency f2(𝓷) Failure free operating cost with efficiency f1(𝓷) f1’(𝓷) + f2’(𝓷) = 0 For the specific exponential case: η C = Aexp(-a. 𝓷) + Bexp(b. 𝓷) The optimum operating efficiency is found to be: Efficiency Wednesday, 6 November 13 𝓷

17. Efficiency - far more sophisticated than ripping out cost or sweating assets €€€ Optimum cost efficiency is at the point (𝓷) where: Failure cost with efficiency f2(𝓷) Failure free operating cost with efficiency f1(𝓷) f1’(𝓷) + f2’(𝓷) = 0 For the specific exponential case: η C = Aexp(-a. 𝓷) + Bexp(b. 𝓷) The optimum operating efficiency is found to be: 1 𝓷o = __ Efficiency Wednesday, 6 November 13 𝓷 _ loge Aa b-a Bb

18. Wednesday, 6 November 13 se ca st or w he T

19. Only humans optimize... Mother Nature goes for good enough.... se ca ...and in doing so achieves sustainable st or w relationships....a symbiosis.... he T Wednesday, 6 November 13

20. €€€€ The minimum decision set Society Ecology Wednesday, 6 November 13

21. te ch no lo gy €€€€ The minimum decision set Society Ecology Wednesday, 6 November 13

22. Even more fundamental to all this is the advance and adoption of new technology that is unpredicted/not fully understood Wednesday, 6 November 13

23. im po ss ib le is im t p o y b Su st ain ab ilit y g in iz old processes and industries Wednesday, 6 November 13

24. The Future Wednesday, 6 November 13

25. The Future Bio Nano AI, AL ITC Wednesday, 6 November 13 Printing Instructing Networking Collaborating Programming Repurposing Recycling Reusing

26. Wednesday, 6 November 13

27. Machines are the biggest communicators on the Plane t They dominate manufacture and production and are moving into design and general knowledge, modeling and decision support Wednesday, 6 November 13

28. They need The Cloud even more than we do ! Wednesday, 6 November 13

29. The Internet cannot scale to 9Bn people and over 50Bn machines on line, but Clouds can Wednesday, 6 November 13

30. We are increasingly defeated by complexity, but our machines are not ! Wednesday, 6 November 13

31. We are increasingly defeated by complexity, but our on machines are not Now outgunning humans general and speciﬁc knowledge Wednesday, 6 November 13

32. Half Life of Knowledge Physics ~13 yrs Medical ~ 4 yrs Software ~ 4 yrs Wednesday, 6 November 13 Economics ~ 9 yrs Marine Bio ~ 2 yrs

33. ITC is vital to our symbiosis Material Technology the biggest game changer for industry and sustainability Wednesday, 6 November 13

34. Thank You ca-global.org cochrane.org.uk COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s Wednesday, 6 November 13

The curse of efficiency

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