This document summarizes climate risks in the Philippines based on a study. It finds: 1) The Philippine climate is changing, with warmer temperatures and more extreme rainfall. 2) Climate change will continue increasing these hazards. 3) Population growth and urbanization are also increasing exposure and vulnerability. 4) Typhoon Ketsana (Ondoy) in 2009 caused extreme flooding in Manila due to high hazards, exposure, and vulnerability, demonstrating climate risks.

1. CLIMATE RISKS
Dr. Gemma T. Narisma, Dr. Rosa T. Perez,
Ms. Antonia Y. Loyzaga,
with Dr. Celine Vicente
and Dr. Fernando Siringan*
Manila Observatory, Philippines
* Marine Science Institute, University of the Philippines Diliman

2. Outline
• The Philippine Climate is Changing
• The Philippine Climate will Continue
to Change
• The Philippines is Changing
• An Integrated Risk Assessment
• Ondoy: Extreme Hazard, Maximum
Exposure, High Vulnerability

3. The Philippine Climate is Changing

4. Average
Warmer temperatures
summer
(march m
- ay)
temperatures,
1900 1
- 995
Warmer temperatures
Average annual
temperatures,
1900 1
- 995
IPCC DDC

5. Dry months, Jan-April Wet months, June-October
Wetter than
usual
Drier than
usual
Drier than
usual
IPCC DDC

6. Western Pacific Typhoon Tracks (1945-2003) (Angl
Tropical Cyclone Passage Statistics (1948-1992);
Metro Manila Bataan Bulacan
Pampanga Cavite
36 20 19
18 16 Perez et al., 2004

7. Geographic Trends in Tropical Cyclones (1945-2003)
More typhoon crossings over Visayas
Anglo, 2005

8. 1. Isabela
2. Camarines Sur
3. Cagayan
4. Nueva Ecija
5. Pangasinan
6. Oriental Mindoro
7. Albay
above 500M
8. Siquijor
9. Bulacan
10. Laguna
11. Pampanga
12. Occidental Mindoro
13. Surigao Del Sur
14. Quezon
15. Batangas
16. Cavite
17. Catanduanes
18. Capiz
19. Ilocos Norte
20. Bataan
DA Data (1992-2006)

9. El Nino, La Nina, Drought, Floods
www.flickr.com/photos/ gpsea/2498556888
http://anythingtheysay.blogspot.com.html
bayanihanpost.com

10. Pepeng + Ondoy

11. 1. Isabela
2. Cagayan
3. Sorsogon
4. North Cotabato
5. Davao Del Sur
6. Bukidnon
7. Southern Leyte
above 500M 8. Palawan
9. Quirino
10. Iloilo
11. Capiz
12. Camarines Sur
13. Davao Del Norte
14. Zamboanga Del Sur
15. Nueva Ecija
16. Maguindanao
17. Negros Oriental
18. Nueva Vizcaya
19. Davao Oriental
20. Quezon
DA Data (1992-2006)

12. 1. Isabela
2. Nueva Ecija
3. Cagayan
4. Pangasinan
5. Ilocos Sur
6. Pampanga
7. Surigao Del Sur
above 500M
8. La Union
9. Bulacan
10. Zamboanga Sibugay
11. Maguindanao
12. Agusan Del Norte
13. Lanao Del Norte
14. Abra
15. Aurora
16. Quirino
17. Ilocos Norte
18. Sulu
19. South Cotabato
20. Bataan
Source: DA Data (1992-2006)

13. 1. Isabela
2. Cagayan
3. Camarines Sur
4. Nueva Ecija
5. Pangasinan
6. Bulacan
7. Iloilo
8. Pampanga
9. Oriental Mindoro
10. Albay
11. Siquijor
12. Laguna
13. Occidental Mindoro
14. Surigao Del Sur
15. Capiz
16. Quezon
17. Batangas
18. Cavite
19. Catanduanes
20. Bukidnon
Department of Agriculture Data (1992-2006)

14. Minimum temperatures in
LB have increased by more
than 1oC 1979-2003
QuickTime™ and a
decompressor Each 1oC rise cause
are needed to see this picture.
decrease in yield by 10%
Peng et al(2004)
Less rain or too much
rain, less harvest,
Changes in timing of
rain also critical, CO2
rise favors crops, but
weeds like it more
New crop varieties
will be needed
Inquirer, NOAA, Caritas, Warwick and the Environment

15. The Philippine Climate will
continue to change

16. HAZARD
A1B: very rapid economic growth, low population growth, rapid introduction of new, more efficient technology

17. HAZARD
A1B: very rapid economic growth, low population growth, rapid introduction of new, more efficient technology

18. The Philippines is Changing

21. Upgrading,
increase in
and
clustering of
urban
centers

22. An Integrated Risk Assessment

23. RISK = HAZARD x EXPOSURE x VULNERABILITY
RISK
Likelihood of Risk Lexicon
harm, loss, disaster
Physical impact of
HAZARD
disturbance
Elements affected
EXPOSURE
by hazard
Susceptibility &
capacity to
VULNERABILITY prepare, absorb,
& recover from
hazard
(UNDP and UNDRO, 1979)

24. HAZARD
A1B: very rapid economic growth, low population growth, rapid introduction of new, more efficient technology

25. RISK
2020 2050
A1B: very rapid economic growth, low population growth, rapid introduction of new, more efficient technology

26. HAZARD
A1B: very rapid economic growth, low population growth, rapid introduction of new, more efficient technology

27. RISK
A1B: very rapid economic growth, low population growth, rapid introduction of new, more efficient technology

28. HAZARD RISK

29. ONDOY Extreme HAZARD,
Maximum EXPOSURE,
High VULNERABILITY

31. Rain Accumulated in Southern and Central Luzon (21-28 Sep 2009)
330.3 mm
http://www.nscb.gov.ph/headlines/Sta
tsSpeak/2009/030909_rav_climatechan
ge.asp
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/manila_rainfall_perspective_21-
28sep09.jpg
• Accumulated rainfall over a week measured by TRMM was over
500 mm in Metro Manila. This value is higher than the monthly
normal.

32. Accumulated Rainfall in Manila Observatory
(21-28 Sep 2009)
500
Weekly Accumulated Rain = 459.8 mm
Accumulated Rain
Daily Rain
400 Daily 26 Sep 2009
368.6 mm
Daily Rain (mm)
Normal Monthly Accumulated Rain for September
300
200
100
0
9/21 9/22 9/23 9/24 9/25 9/26 9/27 9/28
• “Ondoy” brought a total of 368.8 mm of rain over Manila
Observatory on September 26, 2009.
• This daily rain measured in Manila Observatory is higher than the
monthly normal (330.3mm) in the Port Area.

33. Hourly Rainfal, Average Pressure and Winds
in Manila Observatory (26 Sep 2009)
70 Rain 1005
Barometric Pressure
60
Wind Direction
1000
Pressure (hPa)
50 and Wind Speed
Rain (mm)
40
995
30
20 990
10
0 985
12 AM 3 AM 6 AM 9 AM 12 PM 3 PM 6 PM 9 PM
Time (pht)
• The highest rainfall was measured in Manila Observatory between
9 AM and 1 PM.
• Highest rainfall of 61.4 mm/hr was measured at 10 AM

36. Low-lying Coastal Zones
• Philippines included in
the top ten countries
of the world with high
population
occupying the low
elevation coastal
zone or LECZ (> 15
million inhabitants).
• LECZ is defined as a
coastal zone < 10
meters of elevation.

37. Levy, M., CIESIN, Earth Institute
2007

38. The Urban Poverty Morphology Project Phase III
Analysis of Migration and Spatial Distribution Dynamics of Informal Settlements in Metro Manila Using Geomatics
1997 2000
Metro Manila
Informal Settlements
Insets of
(1997 vs. 2000)
Slum Areas
Boundaries of Slums
Locations of Slums
Fairview
Major Roads
Com monwealth
KALOOKAN CITY Clusters (A-H) KALOOKAN CITY
Payatas
Zones of Urbanization Con stitu ti on Hills Bago ng S ilangan
CLUSTER H CLUSTER H
1- Urban Core
2- Intermediate Zone Hol y S pirit
3- Urban Fringe Batasan Hills
4- Hills
SCALE Matan dang
Balara
VALENZUELA VALENZUELA
CITY 2 0 2 4 6 CITY
ZONE 2 Kilometers ZONE 2 Slums along Commonwealth Ave.,
NAVOTAS NAVOTAS QUEZON CITY
CLUSTER D CLUSTER D
MUNICIPALITY
MALABON MALABON
ZONE 4 KALOOKAN CITY NAVOTAS QUEZON CITY
ZONE 4 TONDO
QUEZON CITY TONDO Barangay 19
CLUSTER A
Barangay 20
CLUSTER A LAS PIÑAS CITY PARAÑAQUE
CLUSTER B MAKATI CITY PASAY CITY CLUSTER B SAN NICOLAS
Barangay 275
KALOOKAN MARIKINA KALOOKAN MARIKINA
MALABON PATEROS PORT AREA
CITY CITY CITY CITY Barangay 653
MANDALUYONG QUEZON CITY PORT AREA
ZONE 1 MANILA SAN JUAN ZONE 1 Barangay 649
MARIKINA CITY TAGUIG
MUNTINLUPA VALENZUELA
PORT AREA
Barangay 650
PORT
Barang
Poverty maps show:
CLUSTER C CLUSTER E CLUSTER C CLUSTER E
- Clusters of slums and squatter settlements
MANILA SAN JUAN MANILA SAN JUAN
around "attractors", these being commercial
and industrial magnets, main transport routes, Slums in Port Area,
easements and vacant lots, waterways,
railways and under bridges (Refer to 1997
MANILA
MANDALUYONG MANDALUYONG
CITY Map of Surrounding Land Use) CITY
PASIG PASIG
CITY CITY
- Distribution of urban poor commmunities Rosario Sta. L ucia
following web-like urbanization that follow Maybunga
the path of least resistance
ZONE 3 ZONE 3
Cani ogan
PATEROS - Self-perpetuating or aggravating conditions PATEROS San M igu el
Manila Bay MAKATI CITY
of blight (verified through ground reconnaissance) Manila Bay MAKATI CITY
Palatiw
Pin ag buhatan
- Metastatic or spreading and "cumulative
CLUSTER F impacts" of poverty (World Bank) CLUSTER F
PASAY PASAY Kalaw aan
CITY TAGUIG CITY TAGUIG
Remarks: Napi ndan
Images processed using Natural Color Algorithm
PARAÑAQUE PARAÑAQUE
R = Red Band CITY
Slums beside Manggahan Floodway,
CITY
G = ((Green Band) * 3 + NIR Band) / 4 PASIG CITY
CLUSTER G B = Green Band CLUSTER G
SOURCE:
Slums 2000
Laguna de Bay SPOT XS of Metor Manila, 1997
Image courtesy of Foundation for Laguna de Bay Slums 1997
LAS PIÑAS the Philippine Environment (FPE), LAS PIÑAS
CITY CITY
National Mapping and Reseource Barangay Boundary
Information Authority (NAMRIA) and
MUNTINLUPA United States Agency for International MUNTINLUPA
CITY Development (USAID) CITY
SPOT XS of Metro Manila, 2000
Image courtesy of University of the Philippines
Training Center for Applied Geodesy and
Photogrammetry (UP-TCAGP)
The Manila Observatory and The Urban Research Consortium

40. ALOS/PALSAR Images Before and After “Ondoy”
2009 June 26, 2235 pht (before) 2009 September 26, 2235 pht (after)
Lamesa DAM Lamesa DAM Lamesa DAM
Marikina River Marikina River
Marikina River
http://maps.google.com/ http://dmss.tksc.jaxa.jp/download/ALPSRP182270280.jpg http://dmss.tksc.jaxa.jp/download/ALPSRP195690280.jpg
Apparent increase in the Marikina River width after “Ondoy”.

41. BALUBAD, NANGKA, MARIKINA CITY
MALANDAY, MARIKINA CITY

42. PROVIDENT, MARIKINA CITY
MANGGAHAN, PASIG CITY

43. Emerging points ….
Integrated risk assessment
• Importance of identifying not only hazards but also
exposure and vulnerability: People and Sectors
• Each local community has a unique risk assessment
Ondoy
• Importance of land use/development planning
• Information/data, observation and monitoring, including
information dissemination

44. Trend towards
increasing
demand for
water every five
years around 2001
2001 2006
2006 2011
2011
the more
urbanized and
urbanizing
sections of the
metropolis. Estimated Water Demand per
Land Use Type per
Municipality
2016
2016
2021
2021

45. RISK = HAZARD x EXPOSURE x VULNERABILITY
Principal Rules of DRR
(Adapted from Mechanism of Natural Disaster Reduction, ADRC, 2005)
Mitigate the Hazard
H
R
E V
Minimize Exposure Decrease Vulnerability