15e édition de l’étude annuelle de PwC sur les priorités et préoccupations de 1258 chefs d’entreprise dans 60 pays.
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Etude mondiale de PwC sur les priorités des chefs d'entreprise en 2012
1. Under embargo until 25 January 2012
15th Annual Global CEO Survey 2012
Executive Summary
Delivering
results
Growth and
value in a
volatile world
www.pwc.com/ceosurvey
2. In 2012, CEOs face Telling the CEO survey story
rising uncertainty in
the global economy,
as developed economies
struggle to sustain 1. How is 2012 shaping up? .................................................................................................. 3
recoveries.
2. So CEOs are preparing for the worst? .............................................................................. 4
In the PwC 15th Annual Global CEO
Survey, we asked CEOs how they see the 3. ................................................................................. 5
global economy evolving this year and
beyond, and how they expect to deliver 4. Will there be a rush into fast-growing, emerging economies?............................................ 6
business results in this environment.
We surveyed 1,258 business leaders 5. Does that mean we’ll see more M&A this year? ................................................................. 7
in 60 countries from September to
December 2011, and conducted further
6. So the plan is to step up exports instead? ......................................................................... 8
in-depth interviews with 38 CEOs.
We found a growing sense of 7. Doesn’t this put a big emphasis on innovation? ................................................................. 9
preparedness and a surprising optimism:
chief executives were nearly three times 8. Let’s come back to risk. Didn’t you say uncertainty is on the rise?.................................... 10
this coming year as they were in the 9. Don’t CEOs always talk about the ‘war for talent’? .......................................................... 11
global economy’s growth. Their strategies
to achieve this success centre around
addressing three areas:
10. Where are talent constraints most acute? ..................................................................... 12
balancing global capabilities 11. So what are CEOs doing about it? ................................................................................. 13
and local opportunities
resilience to global disruptions 12. What do CEOs hope to do more of? .............................................................................. 14
and local risks
the talent challenge 13. Are they also thinking outside the box? ........................................................................ 15
in the CEO Survey. Please go to
www.pwc.com/ceosurvey to read the full
report and explore other online tools.
2 15th Annual Global CEO Survey 2012 – Executive summary
3. Short-term confidence has declined – but remains well above the levels seen in 2009 and 2010
1. How is 2012 Q: How confident are you about your company’s prospects for revenue growth over the next 12 months? Yearly comparison.
shaping up? 60%
52%
50%
50 48%
crisis and uncertainties are
mounting: just 15% of CEOs expect 41%
the global economy to improve this 40
40%
CEOs across all regions, except for 30
the Middle East and Africa. Yet while 31% 31%
CEOs don’t think growth will be 26%
Very confident about company’s
easy, they do believe they’re more 20
prospects for revenue growth 21%
ready for turbulence. As a result, over the next 12 months
10
for revenue growth in their own
companies in the next 12 months.
0
Improved cost structures, continued 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
strength in cross-border ties and Base: All respondents (2012=1,258; 2011=1,201; 2010=1,198; 2009=1,124; 2008=1,150; 2007=1,084; 2006 (not asked); 2005=1,324; 2004=1,386; 2003=989)
the rise in investment and commerce Note: Percentage of CEOs who are very confident about their companies’ prospects for revenue growth
Source: PwC 15th Annual Global CEO Survey 2012
to and from emerging economies
are lending considerable support to
business optimism. The world may
problems but this structural shift
is potentially bigger than the
institutional problems and depressed
growth in developed economies.
Dimitrios Papalexopoulos
Half of CEOs based in developed
CEO, TITAN Cement SA, Greece
markets believe that emerging
economies are more important to
their company’s future, as do 68% of
CEOs who are themselves based in
emerging markets.
Tidjane Thiam
Group Chief Executive, Prudential Plc, UK
15th Annual Global CEO Survey 2012 – Executive summary 3
4. CEOs to remain vigilant over costs
2. So CEOs are Q: Which, if any, of the following restructuring activities have you initiated in the past 12 months, or plan to initiate in the coming 12 months?
preparing for Implemented/Implement a 75
the worst? cost-reduction initiative 66
Entered/enter into a new strategic 38
alliance or joint venture 49
CEOs are paring down ambitions in Outsourced/outsource a 35
business process or function
the near term as recoveries in Europe 33
and the US disappoint. Volatile input Completed/complete a cross-border
merger or acquisition
20
28
Insourced/insource a previously outsourced 20
continue to pressure margins in business process or function 16
many sectors. Thus many CEOs are Divested/divest majority interest in a 18
holding back their cash reserves as a business or exited a significant market 14
buffer against an economic pullback: Ended/end an existing strategic
alliance or joint venture
17
12
fewer CEOs are planning a ‘major
10
change’ to capital investment Don’t know/refused
11
strategies this year than did in 2011. %
Similarly, CEOs are keeping vigilant Initiated in the past 12 months Plan to initiate in the coming 12 months
watch over their operating costs:
66% plan to initiate cost cuts in Base: All respondents (1,258)
Source: PwC 15th Annual Global CEO Survey 2012
2012, with CEOs in healthcare and
the forestry and paper industries
most likely to pare costs.
Jouko Karvinen
CEO, Stora Enso Oyj, Finland
Michael Thaman
Chairman of the Board and CEO, Owens Corning, US
4 15th Annual Global CEO Survey 2012 – Executive summary
5. Growing customer bases is far from the only objective of CEOs in their key overseas markets
3. How, then, can CEOs Q: Which of the following objectives do you hope to achieve in the next 12 months? (Top five countries mentioned by CEOs in ‘Which countries,
excluding the one in which you are based, do you consider most important for your overall growth prospects over the next 12 months?’)
be confident?
China USA Brazil India Germany
This is where it gets more interesting.
61 61
Almost a third of CEOs globally 55
46 32
believe that their biggest 55 54
27 46 26 30 22 31 32
opportunities for growth lie in 24
79 71 83 79
developing new products and 72
services to differentiate themselves 30 14 17
23 33
11
38
12
10
16
and remain competitive. 30% are 34
19
31 31 14
determined to expand share in
existing markets. Above all, CEOs Build R&D/innovation capacity or acquire intellectual property Build internal service delivery capacity
are looking to grow outside their Build manufacturing capacity Access local talent base
home base, and are simultaneously Access raw materials or components Grow your customer base
building local capabilities in each of Access local source of capital
their important markets. They are
extending operational footprints, Base: China (383); USA (275); Brazil (188); India (176); Germany (152)
building strategic alliances and Source: PwC 15th Annual Global CEO Survey 2012
creating networks that include
research and development (R&D),
manufacturing and services support.
Building manufacturing capacity,
for example, is important for many
CEOs in each of their key markets,
so China faces increasing competition
Douglas R. Oberhelman
Chairman and CEO, Caterpillar Inc., US
Brian Duperreault
President and CEO, Marsh & McLennan Companies Inc., US
15th Annual Global CEO Survey 2012 – Executive summary 5
6. CEOs are focusing on a mix of large emerging and developed markets
4. Will there be a Q: Which countries, excluding the one in which you are based, do you consider most important for your overall growth prospects over the next 12 months?
continued rush into
fast-growing,
China 30
emerging economies?
USA 22
Brazil 15
India 14
Not entirely. Emerging economies
Germany
are an increasingly important source 12
of growth for most CEOs, whether Russia 8
these markets are close to home UK 6
or 5,000 miles away. Yet developed France 5
and emerging economies alike
Japan
are considered destinations that 5
CEOs believe are critical for their Australia 5
organisations. Over 60 different %
economies were named by CEOs as Base: All respondents (1,258)
key overseas markets. Solid growth Source: PwC 15th Annual Global CEO Survey 2012
and rising domestic spending power
in more economies around the
world, like Indonesia, Colombia and
Turkey, for example, are propelling “Our goal is to maintain market share in the mature markets.
CEOs past a mindset focused solely Those markets generate a lot of earnings so we have no plans to
on the BRICs.
The US and Germany were among
Keith McLoughlin
most CEOs, and mentioned as President and CEO, AB Electrolux, Sweden
economies where they are expanding
capabilities. Nearly equal numbers of
CEOs from developed and emerging
as important. China presents a
important to 37% of CEOs based in
developed economies versus 24% of
CEOs based in emerging economies.
Nancy McKinstry
CEO and Chair of the Executive Board, Wolters Kluwer, The Netherlands
6 15th Annual Global CEO Survey 2012 – Executive summary
7. A modest decline in cross-border M&A is expected in 2012
5. Does that mean Q: Which, if any, of the following restructuring activities do you plan to initiate in the coming 12 months?
Responses of ‘Complete a cross-border merger or acquisition’.
we’ll see more
M&A this year? 40% 110
This year, acquisitions are more
% of CEOs anticipating M&A
Number of deals (100 = 2008)
likely to be a component of strategies 30% 100
for CEOs based in developed
consolidation in mature economies:
15% say M&A offers the main 20% 90
opportunity for growth for their
companies versus 10% in emerging
economies. CEOs in developed
markets were active deal-makers 10% 80
in 2011, with 26% completing a
cross-border transaction, and were
also more likely to have divested an
0 70
operation. But responses this year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F
indicate the potential of a modest
% of CEOs anticipating M&A (left axis)
pull-back on international deal-
Number of deals (right axis)
making over the next 12 months: 28%
of CEOs globally plan to complete a Base: All respondents (2012=1,258; 2011=1,201; 2010=1,198; 2009=1,124; 2008=1,150)
cross-border deal in 2012, a decline Note: Number of deals is all completed deals where final stake is greater or equal to 20%.
Source: PwC 15th Annual Global CEO Survey 2012; Dealogic
from the 34% who agreed last year.
Ajay G. Piramal
CEO, Piramal Group Ltd, India
Yoshio Kono
President and CEO, The Norinchukin Bank, Japan
15th Annual Global CEO Survey 2012 – Executive summary 7
8. Pulling away from an export mindset to meet local demand
6. So the plan is to step Q: For each of the countries that you intend to grow your customer base, which of the following three statements best describes your approach to
product and service development? (The top 10 countries mentioned by CEOs in ‘Which countries, excluding the one in which you are based,
up exports instead? do you consider most important for your overall growth prospects over the next 12 months?’)
%
100
In every major geographic market
30 25 20
are avoiding a simple export model. 37 34 31 32 33 29
37
Substantial proportions, between 75
17% and 36%, say they are designing
46
markets. The balance is surely 50 30
46
42 43
changing as companies increasingly 39
34 42 49
50
operate in dissimilar markets
and learn to segment better. 25
The advantages (and expense) of 36
30
27 26
managing a uniform brand across 20 22
17
24 24
19
many markets are being weighed 0
against the different needs, Germany US France Brazil Japan Australia UK Russia China India
cultures and price points of different Products and services are the same as in our headquarters’ market
customer bases and, in many cases, Products and services are modified to meet local market needs
found wanting. But businesses Products and services are developed specifically for local market requirements
innovating locally need to reach
Base: China (302); USA (195); Brazil (156); India (139); Germany (110); Russia (88); UK (63); France (50); Japan (50); Australia (45)
Source: PwC 15th Annual Global CEO Survey 2012
global and regional operations still
have an important role in the mix.
David Cote
Chairman and CEO, Honeywell, US
Michael White
Chairman, President and CEO, The DIRECTV Group Inc., US
8 15th Annual Global CEO Survey 2012 – Executive summary
9. Many industries see significant pressure for both process innovations and radical innovation
7. Doesn’t this put Q: To what degree are you changing the emphasis of your company’s overall innovation portfolio in the following areas? Responses of ‘significantly increase’.
a big emphasis 50
on innovation? Global average 19
40
Cost reductions to existing processes
Cost reduction remains an important
driver of innovation, but the drive to 4
6
get ahead by fostering innovation is 30 1
5
7
2 12
unmistakable. With strong balance 3
8 9 11
13
20
sheets supporting investments to 10 14
15
16 17
18
20
grow future business, over half of
CEOs (56%) who are changing
innovation strategies are pursuing 10
opportunities in new business
models. CEOs in the communications,
and media and entertainment 0
sectors, facing swiftly changing 0 10 20 30 40
New business models
dynamics in their industries, are the
most active on all fronts, whether it 1 Banking & Capital Markets 6 Metals 11 Chemicals 16 Pharma & Life
means refocusing innovation efforts 2 Business and Professional Services
3 Healthcare
7 Industrial manufacturing
8 Retail
12 Forestry, Paper & Packaging
13 Global
17 Insurance
18 Technology
for existing products and services or 4 Automotive 9 Consumer Goods 14 Construction/Engineering 19 Communications
for entirely new products in new 5 Transportation & Logistics 10 Hospitality & Leisure 15 Asset Management 20 Entertainment & Media
models. Those in industries with a
Base: All respondents (29-245)
historical dependence on innovation Source: PwC 15th Annual Global CEO Survey 2012
are still among the most likely to
change approaches. A third of CEOs
in pharmaceutical and life sciences
expect ‘major change’ to R&D and
innovation capacities in their
companies, as patent expirations and
low R&D productivity are leaving Antonio Rios Amorim
many large pharmaceuticals with Chairman and CEO, Corticeira Amorim SGPS SA, Portugal
uncertain revenue streams.
Yang Yuanqing
Chairman and CEO, Lenovo, China
15th Annual Global CEO Survey 2012 – Executive summary 9
10. Global economic uncertainty remains the top threat to growth prospects
8. Let’s come back to Q: How concerned are you about the following potential threats to your business growth prospects?
risk. Didn’t you say
uncertainty is on North America Western Europe Asia Pacific Latin America CEE Middle East/Africa
the rise?
Uncertain or volatile Uncertain or volatile Uncertain or volatile Uncertain or volatile Uncertain or volatile Uncertain or volatile
economic growth economic growth economic growth economic growth economic growth economic growth
Public deficits Public deficits Exchange rate Increasing tax Exchange rate Exchange rate
volatility burden volatility volatility
Absolutely. There’s broad consensus
that uncertain or volatile economic Over-regulation Unstable capital Unstable capital Over-regulation Unstable capital Availability of
markets markets markets key skills
growth in the coming year is the
chief concern, and that risk is having Unstable capital Shift in consumers Increasing tax Availability of Increasing tax Public deficits
markets burden key skills burden
Many other risks differ in their
Availability of Increasing tax Public deficits Exchange rate Public deficits Over-regulation
importance by region. For example, key skills burden volatility
three-quarters of CEOs in Western
Europe are concerned about Shift in consumers Over-regulation Availability of
key skills
Public deficits Over-regulation Bribery and
corruption
instability in capital markets and
Increasing tax Exchange rate Over-regulation Bribery and Shift in consumers Unstable capital
burden volatility corruption markets
crises. Many in North America also
Exchange rate Inability to Energy costs Inadequacy of Availability of Inflation
a threat, although they’re the least volatility finance growth basic infrastructure key skills
concerned about rising taxes. Protectionism Availability of Shift in consumers Unstable capital Bribery and Increasing tax
Exchange rate volatility and unstable key skills markets corruption burden
capital markets are potential
New market Energy costs Inflation Protectionism Energy costs Shift in consumers
constraints on expansion in both entrants
Rising taxes and over-regulation Energy costs
loom large for CEOs in Latin
America. And exchange rate Business threats Economic and policy threats Denotes equal ranking
volatility is high among the concerns
Base: North America (236); Western Europe (291); Asia Pacific (440); Latin America (150); CEE (88); Middle East/Africa (53)
of CEOs in the Middle East and Note: Rank of top threats, by % of somewhat or extremely concerned
Africa – as is the availability of key Source: PwC 15th Annual Global CEO Survey 2012
skills. In fact, the availability of key
skills is a common concern across
most regions.
Andy Green
CEO, Logica Plc, UK
10 15th Annual Global CEO Survey 2012 – Executive summary
11. Talent constraints have impacted costs – but also factor in lost opportunities
9. Don’t CEOs always Q: Have talent constraints impacted your company’s growth and profitability over the past 12 months in the following ways?
talk about the ‘war
for talent’? Our talent-related expenses rose more than expected 43
We weren’t able to innovate effectively 31
We were unable to pursue a market opportunity 29
Yes – but now they’re telling us it’s
having a real impact on growth. We cancelled or delayed a key strategic initiative 24
One in four CEOs said they’ve had to We couldn’t achieve growth forecasts in overseas markets 24
cancel or delay a strategic initiative We couldn’t achieve growth forecasts in the country where we are based 24
because of talent constraints: 40% of
Our production and/or service delivery quality standards fell 21
CEOs in the technology industry say
%
they’ve missed a market opportunity.
And, above all, rising pay packages Base: All respondents (1,258)
Source: PwC 15th Annual Global CEO Survey 2012
are impacting faster-growing
economies: talent costs are a
constraint for 53% of CEOs in China
and Hong Kong, 58% in Brazil and
67% of CEOs in South East Asian
nations. Look ahead and the problem
gets worse. More CEOs (47%) are
revenue growth in the next three
years than CEOs who are ‘very Michael White
Chairman, President and CEO, The DIRECTV Group Inc., US
access to the talent needed to execute
over the same period.
Tidjane Thiam
Group Chief Executive, Prudential Plc, UK
15th Annual Global CEO Survey 2012 – Executive summary 11
12. Half of CEOs expect to raise their headcount in 2012
10. Where are talent Q: What do you expect to happen to headcount in your organisation globally over the next 12 months?
constraints most Healthcare 6 6 38 31 9
acute? Business services 5 6 23 17 18
Technology 4 2 11 20 18 19
Even industries that have Communications 7 14 24 12 19
retrenched workers in large Chemicals 1 11 34 11 10
numbers, such as banking, are still Automotive 3 4 7 26 16 10
struggling to get the right people:
22 15
41% of CEOs in banking and Global 3 4 11 23 14 14
capital markets say it’s become
Insurance 3 3 10 25 13 12
industry, versus only 18% who Entertainment & Media 5 4 10 24 6 20
believe it’s become easier. CEOs in Industrial manufacturing 3 3 6 19 18 12
the US and Canada are more likely
Banking and Capital markets 7 7 11 25 8 15
to face the greatest challenges in
Asset management 5 6 21
hiring skilled production workers; 6 13 13
senior management teams are Consumer goods 4 4 15 20 18 9
proving more challenging for CEOs Construction/Engineering 4 4 13 17 10 19
in the Middle East and Africa. Retail 4 3 17 22 13 11
Rising compensation and changing Pharmaceuticals & Life sciences 1 5 12 20 12 11
skills requirements are factors, Transportation/Logistics 5 1 12 17 10 12
but for more CEOs, there is simply Metals 3 5 15 13 18 5
Hospitality & Leisure 3 17 7 17 3 14
especially in healthcare and
Forestry, Paper & Packaging 8 10 18 10 14 8
technology, where half of CEOs are
%
Decrease by more than 8% Decrease by 5-8% Decrease by less than 5%
The strain in hiring will not abate Increase by less than 5% Increase by 5-8% Increase by more than 8%
in the near term. More CEOs
are expecting to expand their Base: All respondents (29-245)
workforces than to reduce. Note: Responses of ‘stay the same’ not depicted.
Source: PwC 15th Annual Global CEO Survey 2012
Laércio José de Lucena Cosentino
CEO, TOTVs SA, Brazil
12 15th Annual Global CEO Survey 2012 – Executive summary
13. CEOs are more focused on recruiting local talent and developing and promoting from within
11. So what are CEOs Q: With regards to plans for your global workforce over the next three years, which of the following statements do you feel is more likely to occur?
doing about it? Don’t know
We plan to move experienced employees from our home 53 16 We plan to move experienced employees from newer 31%
market to newer markets to circumvent skills shortages markets to home markets to circumvent skills shortages
Businesses are once again investing We plan to develop and promote most of 67 24 We plan to recruit more experienced talent
8%
our talent from within the company from outside the company
heavily in attracting and retaining We plan to primarily recruit local talent We plan to move more talent across borders
70 19 11%
talent, and it is increasingly wherever we have market needs to fill market needs
%
apparent that companies need
Agree with statement Agree with statement
to better align their people and
business strategies going forward.
Base: All respondents (1,258)
As part of this effort, CEOs are Source: PwC 15th Annual Global CEO Survey 2012
closely integrating HR with
business planning at the highest
levels of the company: 79% of
CEOs say the chief human
is one of their direct reports
(most have ten or fewer direct
reports). Two-thirds also say it’s
more likely that talent will come
from promotions within their
companies over the next three Baba Kalyani
Chairman and Managing Director, Bharat Forge Ltd, India
focus on talent development.
Andrey Kostin
President and Chairman of the Management Board, JSC VTB Bank, Russia
15th Annual Global CEO Survey 2012 – Executive summary 13
14. A minority of CEOs get comprehensive reports on their workforce
12. What do CEOs hope Q: When making decisions, how important is it to have information on each of the following talent-related areas?
to do more of? For those areas that are important to you, how adequate is the information that you currently receive?
100
% of CEOs who believe the relevant information is important or very important
CEOs are seeking a better
understanding of the scale and 80
effectiveness of their investments Information Gap:
Percentage of CEOs
CEOs believe
in talent. Productivity and 60
information is
important but
labour costs remain important don’t receive
comprehensive
measurements; these are the tools reports
40
investors, lenders and businesses
use to benchmark progress (or lack
of it). They are largely standardised 20
in many industries, and thus easy
to implement. 0
Costs of Return on Assessments Labour Employees’ Staff
employee investment on of internal costs views and productivity
Yet for many CEOs, those tools turnover human capital advancement needs
aren’t enough. They’re very good Do not receive information
at telling a CEO how the business Not adequate
Adequate but would like more
is performing today relative to its Information received is comprehensive
peers, but not at indicating whether
the organisation is investing Base: All respondents (1,258)
enough in employees to generate Source: PwC 15th Annual Global CEO Survey 2012
future growth. Such measurements
cannot isolate skills gaps, and
struggle to identify the pivotal
jobs that drive exponential value;
they do not measure employee
engagement or team performance, Zsolt Hernádi
both of which are so critical for Chairman and CEO, MOL Plc, Hungary
investments to foster innovation to
bear fruit. These measurements are
much harder to make, which is one
reason why they’ve been neglected
and why today, so many CEOs are
frustrated with the issue of talent.
Rohana Rozhan
CEO, ASTRO Malaysia Holdings, Malaysia
14 15th Annual Global CEO Survey 2012 – Executive summary
15. Most CEOs plan to increase their investments in skilling the workforce
13. Are they also Q: How much does your company plan to increase its investment over the next three years to achieve the following outcomes in the country
thinking outside in which you are based?
the box? Creating and fostering a skilled workforce 71
Maintaining the health of the workforce 61
Investments to bridge talent gaps Ensuring financial sector stability 41
in strategic plans don’t stop at Securing natural resources that are critical to business 39
the four walls of the company.
Improving the country's infrastructure 37
CEOs recognise that talent is
vital to competitiveness at a time Reducing poverty and inequality 37
when business success relies Addressing the risks of climate change and protecting biodiversity 36
increasingly on knowledge capital %
and innovation capacity. So most
Respondents who stated ‘a significant’ or ‘some increase in investment’
are making direct investments Base: All respondents (1,258)
in workforce development Source: PwC 15th Annual Global CEO Survey 2012
programmes outside their own
companies. Just over half say they
are investing in formal education
systems and adult or vocational
training programmes.
Talent shortages are also
increasingly an issue for
governments, with more
competing to attract the world’s
Tom Albanese
best talent to their shores.
Chief Executive, Rio Tinto, UK
Close to half of CEOs (47%)
believe that fostering a skilled
workforce is one of three top
priorities for their governments.
Jaime Augusto Zobel de Ayala
Chairman and CEO, Ayala Corporation, The Philippines
15th Annual Global CEO Survey 2012 – Executive summary 15