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                           Sharing deal insight
                           European Financial
                           Services M&A news
                           and views

This report provides
perspectives on the
recent trends and future
developments in the
European, Middle Eastern
and African (EMEA)
Financial Services M&A
market and insights into
emerging investment
opportunities.

March 2013
Contents
                             03 Welcome

                             04 Data analysis

                             12 Sub-Saharan Africa

                             13  sset management in the Gulf:
                                A
                                Successfully entering a large and attractive market

                             14 Capitalising on the mutual shake-up

                             16  reek banks:
                                G
                                Weighing up the investment potential

                             18 Looking again at Belgium and the Netherlands

                             19 Loan portfolio transactions

                             20 Methodology

                             21  bout PwC
                                A
                                MA advisory services in the financial services sector

                             22 Contacts




    €51 billion
    Value of European FS MA transactions
    in 2012



                                €20 billion
                                Value of government-led MA transactions
                                in banking in 2012




2 PwC Sharing deal insight
Welcome
to the first edition of ‘Sharing deal
insight’ for 2013.
Sharing deal insight provides perspectives on the latest trends and future developments in the European,
Middle Eastern and African (EMEA) financial services MA market including analysis of recent
transactions and insights into emerging investment opportunities.


                                               a strong focus on the Middle East and          With the Greek economy set on a path
                Nick Page                      Africa, especially among banking and           of reform and restructuring, getting the
                PwC (UK)                       capital markets CEOs.                          timing right on an investment in Greece’s
                nick.r.page@uk.pwc.com                                                        banking sector could provide a valuable
                                               In the remainder of this edition we focus      business opportunity and macro-
                                               on some of the pockets of opportunity          economic play. The country’s difficulties
                                               that are attracting investor interest from     are likely to be reflected in the pricing
                                               around the world. Sub-Saharan Africa           of the businesses and assets, but with
                                               is high on the list of markets targeted        substantial potential for upside tied to
                Fredrik Johansson
                PwC (UK)                       for growth. Nigeria in particular offers       the fortunes of the economy (see ‘Greek
                fredrik.johansson@uk.pwc.com   scope for significant deal activity, fuelled   banks: Weighing up the investment
                                               by further restructuring in its banking        potential’).
                                               sector. Clearly, deal-making in Nigeria
                                               – and elsewhere in the region – is not         The restructured FS landscape within
                                               without its challenges. Even so, most          Belgium and the Netherlands is also
                                               hurdles can be overcome with a mixture         creating openings. Prices are attractive
As our analysis of deal activity over          of sensitivity and patience (see ‘Sub-         and divestments are an opportunity
the past year highlights, the value of         Saharan Africa’).                              for acquirers to gain a foothold in two
European FS MA rose by 35% to reach                                                          relatively affluent Northern European
€51 billion in 2012. But strip away the        Another market on the growth radar is          markets (see ‘Looking again at Belgium
government-led transactions and the            asset management in the oil-rich Gulf          and the Netherlands’).
picture is more mixed, with the value of       Co-operation Council countries, though
private sector-led deals actually showing      many foreign firms have struggled to           Further potential comes from non-core
a small decrease (see ‘Data analysis’).        make an impact. A targeted approach            loan portfolios, the value of which we
                                               built around the market’s changing and         estimate to be more than €2.5 trillion,
Deal activity will continue to be spurred      nuanced product demand and the need            equivalent to 6% of total banking assets
by the need to streamline structures and       for close relationships on the ground          in the EU.2 Loan portfolio transactions
finances, the search for greater financial     could prove more successful (see ‘Asset        are becoming an increasingly important
stability, the role of scale in response to    management in the Gulf: Successfully           strategic tool, both for buyers and sellers
margin pressures and the desire to take        entering a large and attractive market’).      (see ‘Loan portfolio transactions’).
advantage of faster growing markets.
The prospects for 2013 look set to be          The continuing consolidation and               We hope that you find the varied articles
bolstered by a more positive business          realignment of the French mutual health        in this edition of Sharing deal insight
environment. PwC’s latest global CEO           insurance sector is creating opportunities     interesting. Please do not hesitate to
survey revealed a significant easing           for new strategic alliances and ways to        contact either of us or any of the article
of sovereign debt concerns among               broaden customer reach. This includes          authors if you have any comments or
banking and other FS CEOs.1 The more           openings for both conventional insurers        questions, or would like to discuss the
confident outlook is reflected in the fact     and non-profit-making organisations            issues in more detail.
that Western Europe heads the list of          (see ‘Capitalising on the mutual
regions where FS CEOs are planning to          shake-up’).                                    1 PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey
make an acquisition or set up some form                                                       2 Based on internal PwC analysis
of a strategic partnership. There is also
                                                                                                                      PwC Sharing deal insight 3
Data analysis


Total deal values increased in 2012 at last, but the increase was driven by some large government-led deals.




                                                         After a quiet 2011, when the eurozone          •	 exia: Already bailed out twice since
                                                                                                          D
                                                         debt crisis had a cooling effect on MA,         2008, Dexia agreed to issue €5.5bn
                                                         the total value of announced European            of voting preference shares to the
                                                         financial services deals grew in 2012.3          governments of Belgium and France,
                                                         The headline annual total value of               effectively giving them total control
                                                         €51.0bn, a 35% improvement on 2011’s             over the group.
                                                         figure of €37.9bn, suggests that deal
                                                         activity in Europe has finally begun           •	 anco de Valencia: The Spanish
                                                                                                          B
                                                         to grow again. If so, this would mark            government’s bank restructuring
                                                         the end of a ten-year cycle in financial         agency FROB agreed to take total
                                                         services transactions (see Figure 1).            control of Banco de Valencia via
                                                                                                          a €4.5bn share placement. FROB
                                                         Unfortunately, the full story is not as          simultaneously agreed to sell on Banco
                                                         simple as that. Five large government-           de Valencia to CaixaBank for a nominal
                                                         led transactions announced during 2012           consideration of €1.
                                                         account for the annual increase in total
                                                         deal values. With these excluded, the          •	 yprus Popular Bank: The
                                                                                                          C
                                                         total value of private sector transactions       government of Cyprus acquired a
                                                         in 2012 would have been €30.9bn. This            majority stake in Cyprus Popular
                                                         is the lowest level in our ten-year dataset,     Bank for €1.8bn, enabling the bank
                                                         7% below the comparative figure of               to meet a capital shortfall. The rescue
                                                         €33.3bn recorded in 2011 and only 15%            contributed to Cyprus’s decision to
                                                         of the cycle’s high point in 2007.               seek an international bailout.

                                                         One of 2012’s five large public sector         •	 ruppo Sace  Simest: Cassa
                                                                                                          G
                                                         transactions, the Spanish government’s           Depositi e Prestiti, the Italian state-
                                                         €4.5bn rescue of Bankia, was announced           owned public sector bank, acquired
                                                         during the first half of the year and            credit insurer Gruppo Sace and 76%
                                                         reviewed in the previous edition of              of venture capital provider Simest for
3  eal data is sourced from mergermarket, Reuters
  D                                                      Sharing deal insight.4 The government-           €3.8bn, creating a single public finance
  and Dealogic, unless otherwise specified. For          led deals announced during the second            and investment body.
  details of our analysis methodology, please refer to
  the information on page 30                             half of 2012 involved:
4 ‘ haring deal insights – European Financial
   S
   Services MA news and views’, PwC, 15.10.12


4 PwC Sharing deal insight
Figure 1: European FS MA total deal value (€bn), 2003–2012                                                The year also saw several
                                                                                                           large private sector
250                                                                                                        transactions
                                                                                                           Turning to private sector activity, 2012
                                                                                                           generated a number of large transactions
200
                                                                                                           with a range of strategic drivers. Several
                                                                                                           of these involved cross-border bids.
150                                                                                                        This underlines the way that bank
                                                                                                           restructuring, typically discussed in
                                                                                                           terms of the sellers’ needs, continues
100                                                                                                        to provide stronger institutions with an
                                                                                                           opportunity to diversify, build scale or
 50
                                                                                                           increase their exposure to growth.

                                                                                                           Four of these deals were announced
  0                                                                                                        during the first half of the year and
       2003      2004      2005      2006        2007     2008     2009      2010      2011      2012      reviewed in the last edition of Sharing
                                                                                                           deal insight. These were: Royal Bank of
Source: PwC analysis of mergermarket, Reuters and Dealogic data            n Deals ex. Govt n Govt deals   Scotland’s €5.8bn sale of RBS Aviation
                                                                                                           Capital to Sumitomo Mitsui; Sberbank’s
                                                                                                           €2.8bn acquisition of Denizbank of
Figure 2: European FS MA total deal value (€bn) by subsector, 2003–2012                                   Turkey from Dexia; London Metal
                                                                                                           Exchange’s €1.7bn acquisition by
160                                                                                                        Hong Kong Exchanges  Clearing;
140
                                                                                                           and CaixaBank’s €977m merger with
                                                                                                           domestic rival Banca Civica.
120
                                                                                                           The year’s final two announced deals
100                                                                                                        valued near to or above the €1bn mark
                                                                                                           (see Figure 3 overleaf) were:
 80
                                                                                                           •	 eneral Motors Financial’s acquisition
                                                                                                             G
 60
                                                                                                             of Ally Financial’s European and
 40                                                                                                          Latin American automotive finance
                                                                                                             operations for €3.3bn. Ally, majority-
 20                                                                                                          owned by the US government after
  0
                                                                                                             receiving a bailout during the financial
              Banking                Insurance                Asset mgmt                 Other               crisis, began its life as GMAC, GM’s
                                                                                                             former financing business.
n 2003 n 2004 n 2005 n 2006 n 2007 n 2008 n 2009 n 2010 n 2011 n 2012
Source: PwC analysis of mergermarket, Reuters and Dealogic data                                            •	 loyds Banking Group’s anticipated
                                                                                                             L
                                                                                                             sale of 632 branches to UK rival
                                                                                                             The Co-Operative Group for a
                                                                                                             consideration of up to €956m. The
With the exception of the Sace/Simest                   The four deals also accounted for the                planned sale is a condition of the
deal, all of these transactions were                    annual jump in total banking deal values             European Commission’s approval
major banking rescues. This powerful                    (see Figure 2). Of the total of €29.9bn              for LBG’s 2009 bailout. The deal is
reminder of the persistent weaknesses in                of banking deals with disclosed values               currently expected to include nearly 5
many corners of the European banking                    announced in 2012, government-led                    million customer relationships, a fully
industry was reinforced after the year                  transactions accounted for no less than              matched balance sheet and the TSB
end, with the €3.7bn nationalisation of                 €20.1bn.                                             and Cheltenham  Gloucester brands.
Dutch mortgage lender SNS REAAL.5

                                                                                                           5 ‘Netherlands nationalises SNS Reaal’, Financial
                                                                                                             
                                                                                                             Times, 01.02.13


                                                                                                                                    PwC Sharing deal insight 5
Figure 3: European FS MA by deal value (€bn), Q1 2011–Q4 2012

       1.  1.3bn Bank of Moscow (34%) – VTB Bank OAO
          €                                                       1. €4bn Dexia Bank                   1. €3.9 Simest S.p.a.              1.  5.5bn Dexia
                                                                                                                                             €
       2.  1.1bn Bank of Ireland (37%) – Group of investors
          €                                                       2. €2.5bn Skandia Insurance          2. €1.8bn Cyprus Popular Bank         SA
          led by Fairfax Financial Holdings                       3. €1.8bn Bank Sarasin               3. €1.0 Lloyds Bank 632 branches   2.  4.5bn Banco
                                                                                                                                             €
                                                                                                                                             de Valencia SA
                                                                  4. €1.3bn Banco Pastor
                                                                                                                                          3. €3.3bn Ally
                                                                                                                                             
20                                                                                                                                           Financial Inc.
       1.  2.6bn Bank of Moscow OAO (46%)
          €
          – VTB Bank OAO
18     2.  1.8bn Caja de Ahorros y Pensiones
          €
          de Barcelona La Caixa (Banking
16        operations) – Criteria CaixaCorp SA                                          1. €5.8bn RBS
                                                                                                      1. €4.5 Bankia
                                                                                          Aviation     2. €2.8bn Denizbank
       3.  1.1bn Vidacaixa-Adeslas Seguros
          €
14        Generales (50% Stake) – Mutua                                                2. €1bn Banca
                                                                                                      3. €1.7bn LME Holdings
          Madrilena Automovilista SL                                                      Civica
12

10
                             1.  1.1bn RAC plc –
                                €
                                TheCarlyle Group, LLC
 8

 6

 4

 2

 0
          Q1 11                 Q2 11              Q3 11             Q4 11                 Q1 12          Q2 12                 Q3 12        Q4 12
          €9.8bn                €6.7bn             €5.0bn           €16.3bn                €9.5bn        €12.7bn               €10.5bn      €18.3bn

Source: PwC analysis of mergermarket, Reuters and Dealogic data




                                                         Consolidation reshaped the                        •	The Russian banking sector continued
                                                                                                              to generate deals. Most notable were
                                                         banking sector in several
                                                                                                              Ferrosplav Invest’s purchase of a 42%
                                                         European markets                                     stake in Khanty-Mansiisky Bank for
                                                         Looking further down 2012’s list of                  €319m, and the €272m acquisition
                                                         deals, domestic banking consolidation                of Rossiyskiy Kredit Bank by a group
                                                         emerges clearly as one of the year’s                 of private investors. Many small and
                                                         major strategic themes:                              privately owned banks also changed
                                                                                                              hands, although the terms of these
                                                         •	In Greece, market leader National
                                                                                                              deals were typically not made public.
                                                            Bank of Greece agreed to acquire
                                                            second-placed Eurobank for €647m,              The year also saw a wave of
                                                            while Alpha Bank acquired Emporiki             consolidation among European
                                                            from Credit Agricole for a nominal             savings’ banks and mutual lenders.
                                                            sum. Piraeus Bank was also busy,               The most eye-catching deal was
                                                            acquiring ATE Bank for €95m and                Sparkassenverband Bayern’s €818m
                                                            Geniki Bank from Societe Generale.             acquisition of local building society
                                                                                                           Bayerische Landesbausparkasse. Also
                                                         •	 part from CaixaBank’s planned
                                                           A
                                                                                                           in Germany, Volksbank Krefeld merged
                                                           acquisitions of Banco de Valencia and
                                                                                                           with Volksbank Brueggen Nettetal
                                                           Banca Civica, Spain saw Sabadell
                                                                                                           (€ undisclosed).
                                                           acquire Banco Mare Nostrum’s 462
                                                           branches in Catalonia and Aragon for
                                                           €350m, and BBVA acquire Unnim from
                                                           the FROB for a token €1.

6 PwC Sharing deal insight
46%
     In Italy, Banca Popolare dell’Etruria
     acquired a further 46% stake in
     Banca Popolare Lecchese.


Figure 4: European FS MA by subsector: LHS - total deal value (€bn) 09–12. RHS – total deal volumes, 10–12

60                                                                         600


50                                                                         500


40                                                                         400


30                                                                         300


20                                                                         200


10                                                                         100


 0                                                                            0
         Banking           Insurance        Asset mgmt            Other               Banking          Insurance        Asset mgmt            Other

n 2009 n 2010 n 2011 n 2012                                                 n 2010 n 2011 n 2012
Source: PwC analysis of mergermarket, Reuters and Dealogic data             Source: PwC analysis of mergermarket, Reuters and Dealogic data




Mutual mergers also took place in                     sellers included ING, which sold its UK          In addition to Sberbank’s €2.8bn bid
Denmark, where Den Jyske Sparekasse                   direct banking business to Barclays, and         for Denizbank, Eurobank Tekfen was
acquired two of its counterparts; in                  Credit Agricole, which not only sold             sold by Greek Eurobank Ergasias to
Spain, where several mergers between                  Greek subsidiary Emporiki, but also its          Burgan Bank of Kuwait for €271m, and
local Cajas took place; and in Italy,                 Cheuvreux securities’ business.                  SamrukKaznaya of Kazakhstan acquired
where Banca Popolare dell’Etruria                                                                      a 34% stake in Sekerbank (€130m).
acquired a further 46% stake in Banca                 Of course, one bank’s forced disposal is         Standard Chartered acquired Credit
Popolare Lecchese. In the UK, building                another’s growth opportunity. Mutual             Agricole’s investment banking subsidiary
society mergers were announced                        giant Rabobank showed a clear appetite           Credit Agricole Yatirim Bankasi for an
between the Nottingham and the                        for countercyclical expansion during the         undisclosed sum.
Shepshed, and between the Scottish and                year. In the Netherlands, Rabo merged
the Century. Although mergers between                 with regional lender Friesland bank,             Insurance and asset
mutual lenders are often driven by the                bought out Delta Lloyd’s 51% share
                                                      in Friesland’s life insurance unit and
                                                                                                       management saw few large
need to strengthen balance sheets, they
also reflect a view that larger mutual                acquired a 30% stake in mortgage lender          deals, but plenty of activity
                                                      Obvion, all for undisclosed sums. Rabo           In an apparent contrast to the
institutions should be better placed to
                                                      also acquired the last 40% of its Polish         deal activity generated by banking
survive – and even thrive – in the future.
                                                      banking subsidiary BGZ for €301m.                restructuring, the total value of
                                                                                                       insurance deals declined for the third
Non-core disposals                                    Santander was an example of a bank that          year running and asset management
continued to provide buyers                           used MA both to divest peripheral units         transactions remained very subdued
with opportunities for                                and to strengthen core areas of focus.           (see Figure 4). As we have commented
growth                                                The Spanish bank disposed of subscale            before in Sharing deal insight, obstacles
Another aspect of European bank                       businesses in Switzerland and the Czech          to transactions in these sectors include
restructuring during 2012 was the                     Republic, but boosted its scale in Poland        volatile financial markets, rapidly
continuing flow of non-core disposals.                through the €790m acquisition of Kredyt          changing regulation and – not least – the
One international bank making                         Bank from KBC.                                   effects of uncertainty among banking
divestments during the year was Lloyds,                                                                parent companies. Even so, total deal
                                                      Poland was not the only fast-growing             values can give a false impression. A
which in addition to its sale of 632
                                                      European market to attract cross-border          look at the number of announced deals
branches, also disposed of its train
                                                      investment during the year. Turkish              suggests that activity in both sectors is
leasing and Luxembourg private banking
                                                      banking targets were in strong demand.           holding up comparatively well.
businesses for undisclosed sums. Other
                                                                                                                               PwC Sharing deal insight 7
€380m
    Dexia Asset Management was sold to
                                                                           Following its purchase of Banca
    Hong Kong private equity firm GCS Capital                              Civica – formed by the merger of Caja
                                                                           Burgos and three other savings’ banks
    for €380m                                                              – CaixaBank acquired 50% of Caja
                                                                           Burgos’ life business for €190m.

                             Europe may not have seen any truly large    The only asset management deal to
                             insurance deals in 2012, but several mid-   make the year’s Top 20 was Julius
                             market deals rank inside the year’s Top     Baer’s acquisition of Merrill Lynch’s
                             20 transactions (see Figure 5).             non-US wealth management operations
                                                                         in a deal valued at €717m. Another
                             •	 t the larger end, KBC continued its
                               A                                         wealth-oriented deal was Kleinwort
                               divestment programme by selling           Benson’s acquisition of private bank
                               Polish insurer Warta to Talanx of         BHF from Deutsche Bank for €384m.
                               Germany and its minority partner          The deal gives Klienwort access to the
                               Meiji Yasuda of Japan (€770m).            German market, and follows Deutsche’s
                               Luxembourg investment fund Reinet         acquisition of BHF as part of its 2009
                               also sought exposure to a growing         purchase of Luxembourg private banking
                               market, offering €498m for an             group Sal Oppenheim.
                               undisclosed stake in UK pension
                               buyout specialist Pension Insurance       Another feature of the year’s asset
                               Corporation.                              management deals was the involvement
                                                                         of private equity firms in several major
                             •	 he Spanish insurance market was
                               T                                         transactions. Clearly, the low capital
                               particularly active during the year,      requirements and relatively predictable
                               with bank restructuring playing a role    cash flows of asset management
                               in several transactions. Nationalised     businesses continue to attract private
                               lender Bankia bought out Aviva’s          equity firms focusing on financial
                               share of its insurance joint venture      services.
                               Aseval for €608m; Grupo Catalana
                               Occidente and partner INOC acquired       •	 fter a long sale process, Dexia Asset
                                                                           A
                               Groupama’s Spanish insurance unit           Management was sold to Hong Kong
                               for €405m; and Aegon acquired a             private equity firm GCS Capital for
                               51% stake in Santander’s domestic           €380m.
                               insurance business for €220m.
8 PwC Sharing deal insight
Figure 5: Top 20 European FS MA deals 2012
Month	        Target company	                   Target country	        Bidder company	                   Bidder country	               Deal value (€m)

Jan	          RBS Aviation Capital	             Ireland	               Sumitomo Mitsui	                  Japan	                                  5,760

Nov	          Dexia	                            Belgium	               Governments of Belgium and France	 Belgium, France	                       5,500

Nov	          Banco de Valencia	                Spain	                 FROB, then CaixaBank	             Spain	                                  4,500

Jun	          Bankia (45%)	                     Spain	                 FROB	                             Spain	                                  4,456

Sep	          Gruppo Sace, Simest	              Italy	                 Cassa Depositi e Prestiti	        Italy	                                  3,800

Nov	          Ally Financial in Europe 	        Various, Europe and	   General Motors Financial	         US	                                     3,274
		            and Latin America	                LatAm

Jun	          Denizbank	                        Turkey	                Sberbank	                         Russia	                                 2,816

Jul	          Cyprus Popular Bank	              Cyprus	                Government of Cyprus	             Cyprus	                                 1,796

Jun	          London Metal Exchange	            UK	                    Hong Kong Exchanges  Clearing	 Hong Kong	                                1,719

Mar	          Banca Civica	                     Spain	                 CaixaBank	                        Spain	                                    977

Jul	          Lloyds Bank – 632 branches	       UK	                    Co-Operative Group	               UK	                                       956

Apr	          RBC Dexia Investor Services (50%)	 UK	                   Royal Bank of Canada	             Canada	                                   838

Dec	          Bayerische Landesbausparkasse	    Germany	               Sparkassenverband Bayern	         Germany	                                  818

Jan	          Kredyt Bank	                      Poland	                Santander/Bank Zachodni	          Spain/Poland	                             790

Jan	          Warta	                            Poland	                Talanx, Meiji Yasuda	             Germany, Japan	                           770

Aug	          Merrill Lynch – 	                 Switzerland	           Julius Baer	                      Switzerland	                              717
		            International wealth mgmt

Oct	          EFG Eurobank Ergasias	            Greece	                National Bank of Greece	          Greece	                                   647

Dec	          Aseval (50%)	                     Spain	                 Bankia	                           Spain	                                    608

Jul	          Pension Insurance Corporation	    UK	                    Reinet	                           Luxembourg	                               498

Jun	          Groupama Seguros y Reasuguros	 Spain	                    Grupo Catalana Occidente, INOC	 Spain	                                      405

					                                                                                                    Subtotal	                              41,645

					                                                                                                    Other	                                  9,389
Source: PwC analysis of mergermarket, Reuters and Dealogic data
					                                                                                                    Grand total	                           51,034



•	 ridgepoint Capital acquired UK
  B                                                €111m purchase of fund of hedge fund                  Stock Exchange also agreed to acquire
  wealth manager Quilter from Morgan               manager FRM, and the €76m acquisition                 a controlling stake in clearing house
  Stanley in a deal valued at €216m.               of Polygon by US counterpart Tetragon.                LCH.Clearnet for €341m. Both HKEx
  Bridgepoint’s stated desire to expand                                                                  and LSE are aiming to become globally
  the business – both organically and              There were several other                              competitive exchange and clearing
  through MA – was illustrated by                 significant themes at                                 providers.
  Quilter’s subsequent acquisition of
  UK private client wealth manager
                                                   work in 2012’s financial                           •	 onsolidation among securities
                                                                                                        C
  Cheviot (€125m).                                 services deals                                       servicers. The largest such deal was
                                                   Beyond the major areas of deal activity              Royal Bank of Canada’s buyout of its
As usual, 2012 also saw a range of asset           identified above, several other themes               securities’ servicing joint venture with
management deals involving smaller                 played a role in shaping European                    Dexia (€838m), but there were also
targets, often without published deal              financial services MA during 2012.                  several smaller transactions such as
values. As often in this sector the UK             We draw attention to four in particular:             Banca Popolare dell’Emilia Romagna’s
was the most active market, accounting                                                                  sale of its depositary business (€21m).
for 17 of the 35 announced deals with              •	 ntegration among financial
                                                     I
disclosed values. Several of these                   exchanges. Apart from the €1.7bn                 •	 ayment industry transactions.
                                                                                                        P
transactions involved alternative                    acquisition of member-owned London                 Payment processing networks were the
investment managers; the two most                    Metal Exchange by Hong Kong                        target of several deals during the year.
prominent examples were Man Group’s                  Exchanges  Clearing, the London                   These included Skrill’s acquisition of

                                                                                                                             PwC Sharing deal insight 9
PaysafeCard.com of Austria (€140m)          Bank restructuring will remain the main
                                                         and Sberbank’s purchase of online           motor of MA, with EU rulings on state
                                                         payment network Yandex (€46m).              aid continuing to act as a catalyst for
                                                         The appeal of payments’ businesses          banking divestments. One example of a
                                                         to PE firms was illustrated by              domestic deal could be RBS’s planned
                                                         Exponent Private Equity’s support           sale of 316 UK bank branches, following
                                                         for the €170m MBO of Irish payment          the collapse of its previous agreement
                                                         company Fintrax.                            with Santander UK.

                                                       •	Loan disposals. Transactions               Cross-border disposals in Europe’s
                                                          involving loan portfolios are excluded     emerging markets are also likely to be a
                                                          from our dataset, but there is no          feature of 2013. Several large Western
                                                          mistaking European banks’ increasing       European banking groups still own
                                                          willingness to use asset disposals to      a network of holdings in Central and
                                                          strengthen their balance sheets. Sellers   Eastern Europe and might welcome the
                                                          of loans in 2012 included Barclays,        chance to streamline their portfolio.
                                                          Deutsche Bank, ING, Permanent TSB,         The recently announced plan for
                                                          Santander and Royal Bank of Scotland.      Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund to
                                                          We examine loan disposals in more          sell its stakes in local banks BTA, Alliance
                                                          detail on page 19.                         and Temirbank, further illustrates the
                                                                                                     potential for restructuring.7 Interest from
                                                       Looking ahead                                 international buyers is unlikely to be
                                                       Sharing deal insight has reviewed             strong in some peripheral markets, but
                                                       European financial services MA for ten       private equity bidders seeking exposure
                                                       years. Several editions since 2009 have       to a potential recovery in CEE valuations
                                                       seen us analysing the most recent set         may go some way to filling that gap.
                                                       of data and concluding that a recovery
                                                       may be on the way. In reality, the past       Beyond banking, some large and long-
                                                       three years have often proved to be           anticipated deals should also come to the
                                                       disappointing. As mentioned at the start      boil during 2013. Rabobank’s recently
                                                       of this analysis, 2012’s deal data suggests   announced sale of Robeco to Orix of
                                                       that expectations of a recovery in MA        Japan will be one of Europe’s largest
                                                       may be over-optimistic, if not misplaced.     asset management deals of recent years.
                                                                                                     And if agreed, the planned merger
                                                       In the short- to medium-term, we              between Italy’s Unipol and Fiondiaria
                                                       expect European financial services            could add up to one of the most
                                                       MA to be shaped by the same range            important insurance transactions since
                                                       of defensive and forward-looking              the start of the financial crisis. More
                                                       factors as at present. These include          broadly, 2013 might see an increase in
                                                       the need to streamline structures and         insurance and asset management deals
                                                       finances, the search for greater financial    in faster-growing markets such as Turkey
                                                       stability, the role of scale in response      and Poland.
                                                       to margin pressure, the importance of
                                                       diversification and the desire to take        Looking further ahead, some of 2012’s
                                                       advantage of faster growth or stronger        deals may also provide us with clues
                                                       returns.                                      of how European financial services
                                                                                                     transactions will evolve in future.
                                                                                                     For example, European markets are
                                                                                                     increasingly being targeted by bidders
                                                                                                     from emerging regions in search of
                                                                                                     capital, expertise and – in some markets
                                                                                                     – growth. It remains to be seen how
                                                                                                     these and other changes may affect
6 Kazakh ruler tells wealth fund to sell bailed-out
  ‘                                                                                                  European financial services MA in the
  banks’, Reuters, 04.02.13                                                                          longer term.

10 PwC Sharing deal insight
2013
might see an increase in insurance and asset
management deals in faster-growing markets
such as Turkey and Poland.




                                               PwC Sharing deal insight 11
Sub-Saharan Africa


The growth of financial services in sub-Saharan Africa is attracting increasing interest from regional and
international groups. The next few years hold clear potential for a step up in MA transactions. Nigeria in
particular offers scope for significant deal activity, fuelled by further restructuring in its banking sector.


                                              Not all international banks eyeing            market also has clear potential for more
                  Farouk Gumel                sub-Saharan Africa are likely to              restructuring. First, the government is
                  PwC (Africa)                make major acquisitions, but many             considering strategic options for three
                  farouk.x.gumel@ng.pwc.com   will be open to smaller transactions.         nationalised banks. Second, mid-tier
                                              International players typically find it       banks are likely to come under increasing
                                              easier to build a presence in commercial      competitive pressure from their larger
                                              banking than in retail, and the region’s      rivals. Third, changes to banks’ permitted
                                              still-developing capital markets mean         activities will stimulate deals. Some
                                              that corporate lending opportunities are      banks will need to divest insurance, trust
Financial services are developing rapidly
                                              particularly attractive.                      and investment banking subsidiaries;
in sub-Saharan Africa. Many of the
                                                                                            these will attract bids from financial
region’s markets continue to enjoy robust     Nigeria in particular has significant scope   holding companies and private equity
growth fuelled by the resources boom,         for financial services MA over the next      firms. International buyers may also
economic reform, cross-border trade and       few years. Nigeria has seen considerable      seize the chance to build scale in Nigeria
an expanding middle class. Local and          banking consolidation since the financial     and acquire a stepping stone towards
international financial groups are using      crisis of 2008, encouraged by a central       attractive neighbouring markets.
MA to increase their exposure to             bank keen to create a smaller number of
the region.                                   better capitalised institutions. In 2010,     Of course, deal-making in Nigeria – and
                                              there were three large domestic bank          elsewhere in the region – is not without
The majority of deal activity takes
                                              mergers; 2011 saw pan-African Ecobank         its challenges. Political dimensions are a
place in the larger, more sophisticated
                                              acquire Oceanic Bank in a major cross-        fact of life, but stability and governance
financial services markets and their
                                              border transaction; and in 2012, Union        are gradually improving and most
near neighbours. These include South
                                              Bank was taken over by a consortium           hurdles can be overcome with a mixture
Africa; Nigeria, Ghana and Ivory
                                              of domestic and international private         of sensitivity and patience. International
Coast; and Kenya together with its
                                              equity funds.                                 financial groups are increasingly
East African trade partners. Offshore
                                                                                            convinced that the opportunities of
islands Mauritius and Seychelles are also     We expect further banking deal activity       investing in sub-Saharan Africa far
attracting international investors.           in Nigeria during 2013 and beyond. In         outweigh the potential drawbacks.
                                              part this reflects the inherent attractions
As in other emerging markets, banking
                                              of this resource-rich economy and its
is in the vanguard of financial services
                                              huge, under-banked population. But the
MA. The major South African banks are
among those targeting expansion, along
with an increasing number of

international groups with limited
African exposure. Chinese banks are also         Nigeria in particular has significant scope
following Chinese construction, mining           for financial services MA over the next
and resources companies into Africa,
with two – ICBC and CCB – working in             few years.
partnership with South African banks.

12 PwC Sharing deal insight
Asset management in the Gulf:
Successfully entering a large and
attractive market
Despite the huge potential of the asset and wealth management market in the Gulf, many foreign
firms have found it difficult to build a substantial presence. A targeted approach built around the
market’s changing and nuanced product demand and the need for close relationships on the ground
could prove successful.

                                               the region and many have found that          The investment choices of the onshore
                Fredrik Johansson              their international product range is less    high net worth and affluent segments
                PwC (UK)                       well suited to the local markets. Many       have in the past tended to be quite
                fredrik.johansson@uk.pwc.com   have also failed to develop the necessary    conservative. But preferences are shifting,
                                               relationships on the ground, or win the      partly in response to a generational shift
                                               confidence of customers in a market that     in a region with a young and less risk-
                                               is still wary of asset management.           averse population. The ideal product
                                                                                            suite would focus on each end of the
                Andrew Macnab
                                               Meeting changing demands                     risk spectrum – low risk, pure liquidity
                PwC (UK)                       So what could deliver better results?        products at one end and higher risk
                andrew.macnab@uk.pwc.com       The onshore market is very different         and return products at the other. Many
                                               from the offshore market and it is still     western asset and wealth managers’
                                               significantly under-penetrated. In           product ranges fall between these two
                                               addition, onshore investors have different   extremes. One advantage that western
                                               demands in terms of relationships and        asset and wealth managers do have is
                                               services, and look for a different risk/     that they can meet the relatively new
With private financial wealth of                                                            but increasing demands of international
more than $3 trillion (excluding GCC           return profile of their investments. To be
                                               successful, we believe international asset   product capabilities in the onshore
government wealth), the oil and gas                                                         market, something the local players are
rich states of the Gulf Co-operation           and wealth managers must have:
                                                                                            currently also trying to address with
Council (Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain,         •	 trong local asset and wealth
                                                 S
                                                                                            varying degrees of success.
Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates)           management specific relationships;
is one of the most interesting, yet            •	 local market knowledge and physical
                                                 A                                          Developing a presence in these markets
least well known, asset and wealth               presence in the onshore market; and        will continue to be challenging, though
management markets.                                                                         given the high levels of wealth and
                                               •	 product range which meets the
                                                 A
                                                                                            significant pools of investable assets, it is
Ultra high net worth customers                   onshore investors’ demands.
                                                                                            not necessary to have a large market share
(investable assets of more than $50            If this can be combined with a strong        to capture a meaningful size of assets
million) tend to manage the bulk of their      international brand then that can be an      which can deliver strong revenues.
wealth outside the region through their        added competitive advantage.
own family offices. This offshore business                                                  Local banks have well-developed
is already captured and well serviced          The majority of private wealth from high     relationships and propositions but there
by the large international asset and           net worth (investable assets of $1-$50       are still opportunities for international
wealth managers through their offices          million) and affluent (investable assets     players to use their brand, reputation and
in Switzerland, New York and London,           of $0.5-$1 million) is held onshore. Sales   product expertise in this attractive market
although there has been a trend for some       strategies based on western salesmen         if they can combine this with a relevant
ultra high net worth clients to repatriate     flying into the region to attract local,     range of products, local asset and wealth
some of their assets back onshore.             onshore capital have not worked as           management specific relationships and
                                               onshore investors want to see a longer       on the ground presence.
But international asset and wealth             term commitment to the local market
managers have overall had limited              for the international manager to gain
success in attracting onshore assets in        their trust.
                                                                                                                PwC Sharing deal insight 13
Capitalising on the mutual
shake-up

The continuing consolidation and realignment of the French mutual health insurance sector is creating
opportunities for new strategic alliances and ways to broaden customer reach.




                                                         The French mutual sector7 has already                   Shifting demand
                   Antoine Grenier                       been transformed by consolidation. In                   Many French customers are still attached
                   PwC (France)                          2006 there were more than 1,100 mutual                  to insurance providers that are part of
                   antoine.grenier@fr.pwc.com            companies. By 2011, there were fewer                    the ‘social economy’ such as mutuals.
                                                         than 700 (see Figure 6).                                This feeling has been strengthened by
                                                                                                                 the financial crisis as non-profit-making
                                                  The increasing concentration of the
                                                                                                                 organisations are not seen as being
                                                  market is further reflected in the fact
                                                                                                                 responsible for the current economic
                                                  that the top 100 mutuals account for
                   Pauline Adam-Kalfon                                                                           difficulties. Nevertheless, tougher
                                                  around 90% of mutuals’ overall turnover
                   PwC (France)                                                                                  market demands are set to accelerate the
                   pauline.adam-kalfon@fr.pwc.com and are now able to compete with large                         transformation within the mutual sector.
                                                  conventional insurers on scale and
                                                  product range.

                                                         Figure 6: French mutual: An increasingly concentrated market

                                                                           1200


                                                                           1000
                                                       Number of mutuals




                                                                            800


                                                                            600


                                                                            400


                                                                            200


                                                                              0
                                                                                  2006   2007            2008           2009        2010         2011

7  his article focuses on ‘M45’ mutuals, which have
  T                                                      Source: French Prudential Supervisory Authority (ACP)
  historically focused on health insurance


14 PwC Sharing deal insight
Customers are readier to shop around          the whole of France. Mergers, joint           A number of innovative legal structures
as they seek out the most competitive         ventures and strategic alliances such as      have been developed to support these
prices, notably through price comparison      commercial cross-selling or industrial        tie-ups and regulators have been ready
websites. They are also looking for           agreements are also playing an                to support these moves as part of their
improved service. This includes the           important role in the realignment of          wider backing for the social sector.
convenience, choice and interaction of        the market.
digital distribution and insurance cover                                                    The key to realising the benefits is a clear
that is more tailored to their individual     So what are the options for the mutuals?      understanding of where and how the
needs. In turn, competition is mounting                                                     mutual can compete, how they can better
                                              Option one is further consolidation           serve their clients and what deal and
as some of the large conventional
                                              between smaller and medium-sized              alliance options could best support this.
insurers seek to make inroads into
                                              health mutuals. Having gained greater         For example, a mutual that is heavily
the health sector, traditionally led by
                                              scale, the business might then be in a        reliant on trade union business would be
the mutuals.
                                              better position to seek an alliance with      better to seek a partnership with another
Profitability in this mutual sector is also   a conventional partner at a later stage.      mutual than with a conventional insurer.
being put under pressure by increased         To support these moves, operational
regulatory requirements and pressure          collaboration would allow businesses to       Post-merger integration is also a key
on rates in the competitive environment.      share IT, administration and – to some        consideration. How are businesses,
The need to meet new solvency                 extent – staff.                               products range, tariff policy and back-
demands, control losses and sustain                                                         office functions going to be integrated
                                              Option two is to join forces with players     and rationalised, for example? How are
returns calls for new management
                                              specialising in protection cover (Instituts   agents going to be equipped to support
practices, improved management
                                              de Prévoyance) as they seek to broaden        a wider product range?
information and more systematic
                                              their scale and product range.
internal controls.
                                                                                            The future for French health mutuals
                                              Option three is to directly ally with a       is underpinned by positive popular
Broader reach                                 conventional insurer to help extend           sentiment and their readiness to
In response, mutuals are seeking to           the product range and capture new             embrace radical restructuring. A fresh
diversify their product range and extend      members. Customers can enjoy the              wave of mergers, joint ventures and
their customer reach. We’re already           best of both worlds by buying from a          alliances can help to meet evolving
seeing a broader market focus – for           mutual seen as a socially friendly market     market demands and sustain competitive
example, mutuals that have traditionally      provider, while benefiting from improved      relevance.
been aligned with a particular profession     choice. In turn, the conventional insurer
or affinity group seeking to market           can gain access to new customers and
their products more widely, or regional       specialised health products.
mutuals trying to operate throughout
                                                                                                                PwC Sharing deal insight 15
Greek banks:
Weighing up the investment potential

With the Greek economy set on a path of reform and restructuring, getting the timing right on an
investment in Greece’s deleveraged and consolidated banking sector could provide a valuable business
opportunity and macroeconomic play.


                                                 The 2012 headlines were dominated            The economy seems to be bottoming
                  Emil Yiannopoulos              by the European sovereign debt crisis.       out and is poised for recovery with a
                  PwC (Greece)                   In Greece, the result was probably the       potentially significant upside. Prospects
                  emil.yiannopoulos@gr.pwc.com   largest sovereign debt rescheduling          are bolstered by structural reforms and
                                                 in history8 (€206 billion) as part of        measures to eliminate distortions and
                                                 the ‘Private Sector Involvement’ (PSI)       public corruption.
                                                 programme with a resulting 78%
                                                 impairment of these debts. Together          The banking sector restructuring is
                                                 with the collapse of the Greek economy,      progressing apace with the EU/IMF-
                                                 the PSI precipitated the EU/IMF-led          funded recapitalisation, deleveraging
                                                 recapitalisation of the banking system,      and resolution programme spurring
                                                 a critical foundation for economic           major consolidation and the creation of
                                                 recovery. Figure 1 summarises the            three ‘bad banks’ so far. The consolidated
                                                 sectors’ capital needs and other             sector will now be dominated by three
                                                 key figures.                                 groups comprising NBG/Eurobank,
                                                                                              Alpha/Emporiki and Piraeus/ATE/
                                                 The problems faced by the country’s          Geniki. The restructuring process is
                                                 banks were primarily rooted in their         supported by the Hellenic Financial
                                                 exposure to sovereign debt, with their       Stability Fund (HFSF), which channels
                                                 capital base decimated by the PSI            recapitalisation funds and administers
                                                 restructuring and, in parallel, the macro-   Greek State holdings.
                                                 economic shrinkage that directly affects
                                                 loan defaults. This contrasts with the       NPL levels have soared as a result of the
                                                 Irish banking sector, which fell victim to   economic slide, though the quantum of
                                                 risky lending decisions made during the      the recapitalisation process was based on
                                                 credit bubble of 2002 to 2007.               the estimated total credit losses in each
                                                                                              of the existing portfolios, which was
                                                 Turning the corner                           determined by a detailed due diligence
                                                 Politically, the country has pulled back     exercise carried out by an independent
                                                 from the precipice it was facing in the      advisor from the US.
                                                 summer of 2012, with the coalition
                                                 government forging a relatively stable
                                                 administration committed to reform.
8 Eurobank EFG , 9.03.12


16 PwC Sharing deal insight
The economy seems to be bottoming out
    and is poised for recovery with a potentially
    significant upside.




Figure 7: Estimated losses and capital needs                                                            1 NBG and Eurobank are in the process of
                                                                                                          
                                                                                                          acquisition/merger
Process for calculating capital needs (December 2011–December 2014 in a consolidated basis)             2 Alpha acquired on 1 February 2013 Emporiki from
                                                                                                          
in € million, estimated in May 2012                                                                       Credit Agricole SA
                                                                                                        3 Piraeus acquired Geniki bank on 14 December
                                                                                                          
Bank	                     Total gross	 Loan balances	      Gross CLPs	       Loan loss	       Capital
                                                                                                          2012 and ATE’s ‘good bank’, which was resolved
		                           PSI loss	      Dec 2011	        for credit	      reserves	       Needs
                                                                                                          in July 2012
		                         (Dec 2011)		                           Risk4	   (Dec 2011)5
                                                                                                        4 Gross credit loss projections (CLPs) over the June
                                                                                                          
NBG1	                            -11,735	     41,019	            -8,366	         5,390	        9,756      2011 to December 2014 period for Greek loan
                                                                                                          portfolios, foreign and state-related portfolios.
Eurobank1	                        -5,781	     37,116	            -8,226	         3,514	        5,839      CLPs for Greek loan portfolios take into account
                                                                                                          three elements: a) three-year CLPs estimated by
Alpha2	                           -4,786	     34,298	            -8,493	         3,115	        4,571      Blackrock; b) a fourth year of the CLPs; c) the
                                                                                                          credit risk cost for the new production
Piraeus3	                         -5,911	     25,909	            -6,281	         2,565	        7,335    5 Accumulated provisions (as at December 2011)
                                                                                                          
                                                                                                          already recorded by banks for the loan portfolios
Emporiki 	 2
                                    -590	     19,881	            -6,351	         3,969	        2,475      referred to in column ‘Gross CLPs for credit risk’
                                                                                                        6 Includes loans at banks not requiring additional
                                                                                                          
ATEbank 	   3
                                  -4,329	     14,639	            -3,383	         2,344	        4,920      capital
Postbank	                         -3,444	      9,335	            -1,482	         1,284	        3,737

Millenium	                          -137	      4,997	             -638	           213	           399

Geniki3	                            -292	      4,174	            -1,552	         1,309	          281

Other (5 other smaller banks)	      -728	    11,742 	
                                                   6
                                                                 -2,061	         1,025	        1,229

Total	                           -37,733	    203,110	          -46,833	        24,728	        40,542    Source: Bank of Greece report on the recapitalisation
                                                                                                        and restructuring of the Greek Baking Sector,
‘Core Banks’ Subtotal	           -28,213	    138,342	          -31,366	        14,584	        27,501    20.12.12




Investment opportunity                                  stockholders confer rights to acquire           The country’s difficulties are likely
                                                        the remaining 90% of the stock at               to be reflected in the pricing of the
and if so when?
                                                        effectively slightly above par, depending       restructured businesses and assets, but
Apart from three small banks, all Greek
                                                        on the timing the warrants are exercised.       with substantial potential for upside tied
banks will now proceed with rights’
                                                        In the current market this seems to             to the fortunes of the economy, Greece
issues during 2013 as part of their
                                                        be a very full valuation and again              and the wider eurozone.
recapitalisation programmes. The terms
                                                        investors are questioning the wisdom
for the issue of the new stock (including                                                               A new factor that will also need to
                                                        of putting such a rigid valuation
conditional convertibles ‘CoCos’)                                                                       be taken into account is the EU’s
                                                        structure on the warrants, which ignores
provide, inter alia, that if a minimum                                                                  appointment of independent monitors to
                                                        market conditions.
of 10% private equity participation is                                                                  oversee the restructuring of each of the
achieved then private shareholders will                 The balance of the state holdings               institutions receiving new public money.
assume administrative control. If not, the              (passed back to the government once             This could prove to be a double-edged
banks will be administered by the HFSF.                 the HFSF fulfils its remit and is wound         sword as the ‘monitoring trustees’ report
                                                        up) are scheduled to be sold by the             directly to the EU commission. While this
Questions have been raised by a number
                                                        Greek Government in 2018 on terms that          process strengthens governance, it could
of investors on the attractiveness of
                                                        may be particularly attractive to private       slow down decision-making and create
participation in the recapitalisation at
                                                        shareholders. Further opportunities             the potential for bureaucratic delays.
this point due to the current negative
                                                        come from the sale of non-core loan
equity position that the banks have and
                                                        portfolios (performing as well as non-
the minimum returns the CoCos would
                                                        performing), foreign subsidiaries and
be entitled to. However, it seems that
                                                        individual corporate exposures.
there is some private sector interest from
a variety of sources including private
equity, several sovereign wealth funds
and certain of the existing shareholders.
The warrants issued to the new private

                                                                                                                                 PwC Sharing deal insight 17
Overseas operations are being sold as
                                                    groups seek to raise funds and refocus on
                                                    their domestic markets.




Looking again at Belgium
and the Netherlands

Targeting pockets of opportunity in Belgium and the Netherlands’ restructured landscape.




                                                 While much of the focus of deal activity    number of segments such as mortgages
                   Wilbert van den               has been the overseas holdings, investors   in Belgium and the Netherlands continue
                   Heuvel                        are taking a fresh look at the domestic     to deliver relatively strong returns.
                   PwC (Netherlands)             assets. The Fidea9 and Dexia Asset
                   wilbert.van.den.heuvel@       Management10 deals are a testament          The downturn in demand in the life
                   nl.pwc.com                                                                and pensions sector could lead to
                                                 to private equity interest. The recent
                                                 acquisition of a controlling interest in    many portfolios being placed in run-
                                                 Robeco by Orix highlights the potential     off, opening up opportunities for fund
                                                 openings for corporate buyers.11            administrators and consolidation
The price for the high level of state                                                        vehicles. Non-life arms could be sold
support received by many leading                 As the recent nationalisation of SNS        separately in split deals that may attract
banks and insurers in Belgium and                REAAL highlights,12 the restructuring is    corporate buyers looking to increase
the Netherlands has been a major                 likely to be ongoing for some time. Press   market share.
programme of divestment and                      reports have suggested that the company
restructuring.                                   had earlier been targeted by a private      A major merger between two of
                                                 equity consortium.13                        the larger groups is also possible.
Overseas operations are being sold as                                                        These groups had grown into major
groups seek to raise funds and refocus           So why the interest from prospective        international corporations prior to the
on their domestic markets. EU bail-out           buyers?                                     financial crisis. As their focus becomes
conditions have also necessitated the                                                        domestic once again, consolidation may
break-up of several groups. Prominent            Prices are attractive – for example,        be necessary to reflect the smaller size
examples include the planned split of            Fidea’s sale price valued the company at    of their main markets.
ING’s insurance arm and sale of various          below book value.14
foreign operations.                                                                          The challenges of realising the full value
                                                 The range of assets on offer includes       of these deals encompass the difficulties
                                                 a number of profitable and capital          of separating and valuing entities that
                                                 light mortgage administration, asset        may rely on central group services.
                                                 management, debt collection and other       Corporate and PE buyers will also need
09 KBC media release, 30.03,12                   service companies.                          to demonstrate to regulators that they
10 Dexia media release, 17.12.12
                                                                                             have a coherent long-term strategy for
11 Robeco media release, 19.02.13                Divestments are an opportunity for
                                                                                             the holdings they are seeking to acquire.
12  overnment of the Netherlands, Ministry of
   G                                             acquirers to gain a foothold in two
   Finance media release, 01.02.13               relatively affluent Northern European
13 Reuters, 01.02.13                             markets. Despite slow growth overall, a
14 Reuters, 17.10.11


18 PwC Sharing deal insight
Loan portfolio transactions


Over the past few years European banks have been among the world’s most active sellers of loan portfolios.
Despite some national variations we see clear potential for further activity, and loan portfolio transactions
look set to become an increasingly important strategic tool, both for buyers and sellers.


                                              Over the last two years European banks      Of course, loan sales are not the only
                Richard Thompson              have divested loans with face values        option for European banks seeking
                PwC (UK)                      in the tens of billions of euros. Among     to reduce leverage. Non-core loans
                richard.c.thompson@uk.pwc.com countries with large levels of non-         may be refinanced in the normal way,
                                              performing loans, the UK, Ireland and       or go through accelerated workout.
                                              Spain have been the most active markets.    Asset swaps and other structured
                                              In contrast, Germany and Italy have         arrangements will also be used.
                                              so far seen comparatively few deals.
                                              There is also variation between smaller     Even so, the European market for
Any reader of the financial press will                                                    loan sales clearly has strong scope
                                              markets: Portugal has generated several
know that many European banks have                                                        for expansion. Portfolio transactions,
                                              transactions but the Netherlands has
been selling off portions of their loan                                                   already more central to bank
                                              been relatively quiet.
books in recent years. The motives                                                        restructuring than in previous credit
are obvious. Banks need to reduce             Several factors suggest the European        downturns, are likely to play an
leverage and stabilise their earnings,        market for loan portfolio transactions      increasingly important role in banking
and disposals of low-quality or non-          will expand during 2013, and we expect      strategy over the new few years.
core assets can achieve both goals.           loans with a face value of around €60bn
Meanwhile, well-capitalised banks and         to transact during the year. The need for
private equity funds have acquired loan       deleveraging remains huge, and banks
portfolios in the search for attractive       are increasingly willing to ring-fence
returns, especially at a time of low yields assets and prepare them for disposal.
and slow credit expansion.                    At the same time there is growing
                                               investor appetite for distressed debt,
These countercyclical drivers mean that
                                               and regulatory pressure to strengthen
Europe is now one of the world’s largest
                                               balance sheets is building. Further
markets for loan portfolio sales. We have
                                               rounds of provisioning by European
estimated European banks’ non-core
                                               banks could also stimulate deals by
loans at the end of 2011 at more than
                                               tightening pricing gaps. Transactions
€2.5tn, equivalent to 6% of total banking
                                               will continue to flow from the more
assets, and within this, we have non-
                                               active markets, but countries such as
performing loans to have a face value of
                                               Italy and France also have the potential
around €1tn.15 Fiscal austerity and weak
                                               to generate greater deal volumes.
economic growth suggests that asset
quality may get worse before it gets better.                                              15 Based on internal PwC analysis


                                                                                                                 PwC Sharing deal insight 19
Methodology
The Data analysis section in this issue              Our analysis excludes deals that, in our
includes financial services deals:                   view, are not ‘pure’ FS deals involving
                                                     corporate entities, or entire operations,
•  eported by mergermarket, Reuters
  r                                                  e.g. real estate deals and sales/purchases
  and Dealogic;                                      of asset portfolios where the disclosed
                                                     deal value represents the value of
•  nnounced in 2012, and expected to
  a
                                                     assets sold.
  complete;

•  nvolving the acquisition of a 30%
  i
  stake (or significant stake giving
  effective control to the acquirer); and

•  cquisitions of Europe-based FS targets
  a
  where a deal value has been publicly
  disclosed.




Figure 8: European FS deals – quarterly summary
Deal value € in billions	           Q1 11	      Q2 11	       Q3 11	      Q4 11	    FY 11	    Q1 12	    Q2 12	        Q3 12	       Q4 12	        FY 12

Asset management	                      1.0 	       0.4 	         0.4 	     0.4 	     2.1 	     0.3 	     0.2 	          1.2 	        0.8 	         2.4

Banking	                               5.9 	       2.0 	         3.7 	    11.0 	    22.7 	     1.9 	     8.5 	          3.6 	       15.9 	        29.9

Insurance	                             2.0 	       2.5 	         0.2 	     4.0 	     8.6 	     0.9 	     1.1 	          1.1 	        1.2 	         4.3

Other	                                 0.9 	       1.8 	         0.7 	     1.0 	     4.3 	     6.4 	     2.9 	          4.6 	        0.5 	        14.4

Total deal value	                      9.8 	       6.7 	         5.0 	    16.3 	    37.7 	     9.5 	    12.7 	         10.5 	       18.3 	        51.0

Corporate	                             9.5 	       4.8 	         3.3 	    10.2 	    27.8 	     9.1 	     7.9 	          4.3 	        7.6 	        29.0

PE	                                    0.3 	       1.9 	         0.5 	     0.7 	     3.4 	     0.2 	       -	           0.4 	        0.7 	         1.3

Government	                            0.0 	         -	            -	      4.4 	     4.4 	        -	     4.5 	          5.6 	       10.0 	        20.1

Other	                                 0.0 	       0.0 	         1.2 	     1.0 	     2.2 	     0.2 	     0.3 	          0.2 	        0.0 	         0.7

Total deal value	                      9.8 	       6.7 	         5.0 	    16.3 	    37.7 	     9.5 	    12.7 	         10.5 	       18.3 	        51.0

Domestic	                              8.5 	       3.0 	         2.6 	    11.1 	    25.2 	     2.7 	     6.1 	          8.9 	       13.9 	        31.6

Cross-border	                          1.3 	       3.6 	         2.4 	     5.2 	    12.5 	     6.8 	     6.7 	          1.6 	        4.4 	        19.4

Total deal value	                      9.8 	       6.7 	         5.0 	    16.3 	    37.7 	     9.5 	    12.7 	         10.5 	       18.3 	        51.0


Source: mergermarket, Thomson Reuters, Dealogic, PwC analysis	                                                   Note: May contain rounding differences




20 PwC Sharing deal insight
About PwC
MA advisory services in the
financial services sector
PwC is a leading consulting and accounting adviser for MA in the FS sector. Through our Corporate
Finance, Strategy, Structuring, Transaction Services, Valuation, Consulting, Human Resource and
Tax practices, we offer a full suite of MA advisory services.


The main areas of our services are:       •	oan portfolio advisory services
                                            l
                                            including performance analysis,
•	 ead advisory corporate finance;
  l                                         due diligence and valuation;
•	 eal structuring, drawing on
  d                                       •	 ost-merger integration: synergy
                                            p
  accounting, regulation and tax            assessments, planning and project
  requirements;                             management;
•	 ue diligence: commercial, financial
  d                                       •	 uman resource and pension scheme
                                            h
  and operational;                          advice; and
•	 usiness and asset valuations and
  b                                       •	 aluations for financial reporting
                                            v
  fairness opinions;                        purposes.



                                             About this report
                                             In addition to the named authors of the articles, the main authors of, and
                                             editorial team for, this report were Nick Page, a partner and Fredrik Johansson,
                                             a director in PwC (UK) Transaction Services – Financial Services team in London.
                                             Other contributions were made by Andrew Mills of Insight Financial Research,
                                             Tina Mayo, Francisco Egana Barrios, Felix Ross and Khaled Abdul Wasey of
                                             PwC UK.


   Geared up for growth?
   We can help you take advantage of the emerging opportunities for expansion
   and acquisition. Find out more about our MA advisory services at

   www.pwc.com/financialservices




                                                                                                       PwC Sharing deal insight 21
PwC helps organisations and individuals create the value they’re looking for. We’re a network of firms in 158 countries with more than 180,000 people who are
committed to delivering quality in assurance, tax and advisory services. Tell us what matters to you and find out more by visiting us at www.pwc.com.

This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only, and does not constitute professional advice. You should not act upon the
information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law, PwC does do not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty
of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it.

For further information on the Global FS MA marketing programme or for additional copies please contact Tina Mayo, Global Financial Services Marketing, PwC UK on
+44 20 7212 2371 or at tina.mayo@uk.pwc.com
www.pwc.com/financialservices
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Etude PwC sur les fusions-acquisitions dans le secteur européen des services financiers (2013)

  • 1. www.pwc.com/financialservices Sharing deal insight European Financial Services M&A news and views This report provides perspectives on the recent trends and future developments in the European, Middle Eastern and African (EMEA) Financial Services M&A market and insights into emerging investment opportunities. March 2013
  • 2. Contents 03 Welcome 04 Data analysis 12 Sub-Saharan Africa 13 sset management in the Gulf: A Successfully entering a large and attractive market 14 Capitalising on the mutual shake-up 16 reek banks: G Weighing up the investment potential 18 Looking again at Belgium and the Netherlands 19 Loan portfolio transactions 20 Methodology 21 bout PwC A MA advisory services in the financial services sector 22 Contacts €51 billion Value of European FS MA transactions in 2012 €20 billion Value of government-led MA transactions in banking in 2012 2 PwC Sharing deal insight
  • 3. Welcome to the first edition of ‘Sharing deal insight’ for 2013. Sharing deal insight provides perspectives on the latest trends and future developments in the European, Middle Eastern and African (EMEA) financial services MA market including analysis of recent transactions and insights into emerging investment opportunities. a strong focus on the Middle East and With the Greek economy set on a path Nick Page Africa, especially among banking and of reform and restructuring, getting the PwC (UK) capital markets CEOs. timing right on an investment in Greece’s nick.r.page@uk.pwc.com banking sector could provide a valuable In the remainder of this edition we focus business opportunity and macro- on some of the pockets of opportunity economic play. The country’s difficulties that are attracting investor interest from are likely to be reflected in the pricing around the world. Sub-Saharan Africa of the businesses and assets, but with is high on the list of markets targeted substantial potential for upside tied to Fredrik Johansson PwC (UK) for growth. Nigeria in particular offers the fortunes of the economy (see ‘Greek fredrik.johansson@uk.pwc.com scope for significant deal activity, fuelled banks: Weighing up the investment by further restructuring in its banking potential’). sector. Clearly, deal-making in Nigeria – and elsewhere in the region – is not The restructured FS landscape within without its challenges. Even so, most Belgium and the Netherlands is also hurdles can be overcome with a mixture creating openings. Prices are attractive As our analysis of deal activity over of sensitivity and patience (see ‘Sub- and divestments are an opportunity the past year highlights, the value of Saharan Africa’). for acquirers to gain a foothold in two European FS MA rose by 35% to reach relatively affluent Northern European €51 billion in 2012. But strip away the Another market on the growth radar is markets (see ‘Looking again at Belgium government-led transactions and the asset management in the oil-rich Gulf and the Netherlands’). picture is more mixed, with the value of Co-operation Council countries, though private sector-led deals actually showing many foreign firms have struggled to Further potential comes from non-core a small decrease (see ‘Data analysis’). make an impact. A targeted approach loan portfolios, the value of which we built around the market’s changing and estimate to be more than €2.5 trillion, Deal activity will continue to be spurred nuanced product demand and the need equivalent to 6% of total banking assets by the need to streamline structures and for close relationships on the ground in the EU.2 Loan portfolio transactions finances, the search for greater financial could prove more successful (see ‘Asset are becoming an increasingly important stability, the role of scale in response to management in the Gulf: Successfully strategic tool, both for buyers and sellers margin pressures and the desire to take entering a large and attractive market’). (see ‘Loan portfolio transactions’). advantage of faster growing markets. The prospects for 2013 look set to be The continuing consolidation and We hope that you find the varied articles bolstered by a more positive business realignment of the French mutual health in this edition of Sharing deal insight environment. PwC’s latest global CEO insurance sector is creating opportunities interesting. Please do not hesitate to survey revealed a significant easing for new strategic alliances and ways to contact either of us or any of the article of sovereign debt concerns among broaden customer reach. This includes authors if you have any comments or banking and other FS CEOs.1 The more openings for both conventional insurers questions, or would like to discuss the confident outlook is reflected in the fact and non-profit-making organisations issues in more detail. that Western Europe heads the list of (see ‘Capitalising on the mutual regions where FS CEOs are planning to shake-up’). 1 PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey make an acquisition or set up some form 2 Based on internal PwC analysis of a strategic partnership. There is also PwC Sharing deal insight 3
  • 4. Data analysis Total deal values increased in 2012 at last, but the increase was driven by some large government-led deals. After a quiet 2011, when the eurozone • exia: Already bailed out twice since D debt crisis had a cooling effect on MA, 2008, Dexia agreed to issue €5.5bn the total value of announced European of voting preference shares to the financial services deals grew in 2012.3 governments of Belgium and France, The headline annual total value of effectively giving them total control €51.0bn, a 35% improvement on 2011’s over the group. figure of €37.9bn, suggests that deal activity in Europe has finally begun • anco de Valencia: The Spanish B to grow again. If so, this would mark government’s bank restructuring the end of a ten-year cycle in financial agency FROB agreed to take total services transactions (see Figure 1). control of Banco de Valencia via a €4.5bn share placement. FROB Unfortunately, the full story is not as simultaneously agreed to sell on Banco simple as that. Five large government- de Valencia to CaixaBank for a nominal led transactions announced during 2012 consideration of €1. account for the annual increase in total deal values. With these excluded, the • yprus Popular Bank: The C total value of private sector transactions government of Cyprus acquired a in 2012 would have been €30.9bn. This majority stake in Cyprus Popular is the lowest level in our ten-year dataset, Bank for €1.8bn, enabling the bank 7% below the comparative figure of to meet a capital shortfall. The rescue €33.3bn recorded in 2011 and only 15% contributed to Cyprus’s decision to of the cycle’s high point in 2007. seek an international bailout. One of 2012’s five large public sector • ruppo Sace Simest: Cassa G transactions, the Spanish government’s Depositi e Prestiti, the Italian state- €4.5bn rescue of Bankia, was announced owned public sector bank, acquired during the first half of the year and credit insurer Gruppo Sace and 76% reviewed in the previous edition of of venture capital provider Simest for 3 eal data is sourced from mergermarket, Reuters D Sharing deal insight.4 The government- €3.8bn, creating a single public finance and Dealogic, unless otherwise specified. For led deals announced during the second and investment body. details of our analysis methodology, please refer to the information on page 30 half of 2012 involved: 4 ‘ haring deal insights – European Financial S Services MA news and views’, PwC, 15.10.12 4 PwC Sharing deal insight
  • 5. Figure 1: European FS MA total deal value (€bn), 2003–2012 The year also saw several large private sector 250 transactions Turning to private sector activity, 2012 generated a number of large transactions 200 with a range of strategic drivers. Several of these involved cross-border bids. 150 This underlines the way that bank restructuring, typically discussed in terms of the sellers’ needs, continues 100 to provide stronger institutions with an opportunity to diversify, build scale or 50 increase their exposure to growth. Four of these deals were announced 0 during the first half of the year and 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 reviewed in the last edition of Sharing deal insight. These were: Royal Bank of Source: PwC analysis of mergermarket, Reuters and Dealogic data n Deals ex. Govt n Govt deals Scotland’s €5.8bn sale of RBS Aviation Capital to Sumitomo Mitsui; Sberbank’s €2.8bn acquisition of Denizbank of Figure 2: European FS MA total deal value (€bn) by subsector, 2003–2012 Turkey from Dexia; London Metal Exchange’s €1.7bn acquisition by 160 Hong Kong Exchanges Clearing; 140 and CaixaBank’s €977m merger with domestic rival Banca Civica. 120 The year’s final two announced deals 100 valued near to or above the €1bn mark (see Figure 3 overleaf) were: 80 • eneral Motors Financial’s acquisition G 60 of Ally Financial’s European and 40 Latin American automotive finance operations for €3.3bn. Ally, majority- 20 owned by the US government after 0 receiving a bailout during the financial Banking Insurance Asset mgmt Other crisis, began its life as GMAC, GM’s former financing business. n 2003 n 2004 n 2005 n 2006 n 2007 n 2008 n 2009 n 2010 n 2011 n 2012 Source: PwC analysis of mergermarket, Reuters and Dealogic data • loyds Banking Group’s anticipated L sale of 632 branches to UK rival The Co-Operative Group for a consideration of up to €956m. The With the exception of the Sace/Simest The four deals also accounted for the planned sale is a condition of the deal, all of these transactions were annual jump in total banking deal values European Commission’s approval major banking rescues. This powerful (see Figure 2). Of the total of €29.9bn for LBG’s 2009 bailout. The deal is reminder of the persistent weaknesses in of banking deals with disclosed values currently expected to include nearly 5 many corners of the European banking announced in 2012, government-led million customer relationships, a fully industry was reinforced after the year transactions accounted for no less than matched balance sheet and the TSB end, with the €3.7bn nationalisation of €20.1bn. and Cheltenham Gloucester brands. Dutch mortgage lender SNS REAAL.5 5 ‘Netherlands nationalises SNS Reaal’, Financial Times, 01.02.13 PwC Sharing deal insight 5
  • 6. Figure 3: European FS MA by deal value (€bn), Q1 2011–Q4 2012 1. 1.3bn Bank of Moscow (34%) – VTB Bank OAO € 1. €4bn Dexia Bank 1. €3.9 Simest S.p.a. 1. 5.5bn Dexia € 2. 1.1bn Bank of Ireland (37%) – Group of investors € 2. €2.5bn Skandia Insurance 2. €1.8bn Cyprus Popular Bank SA led by Fairfax Financial Holdings 3. €1.8bn Bank Sarasin 3. €1.0 Lloyds Bank 632 branches 2. 4.5bn Banco € de Valencia SA 4. €1.3bn Banco Pastor 3. €3.3bn Ally 20 Financial Inc. 1. 2.6bn Bank of Moscow OAO (46%) € – VTB Bank OAO 18 2. 1.8bn Caja de Ahorros y Pensiones € de Barcelona La Caixa (Banking 16 operations) – Criteria CaixaCorp SA 1. €5.8bn RBS 1. €4.5 Bankia Aviation 2. €2.8bn Denizbank 3. 1.1bn Vidacaixa-Adeslas Seguros € 14 Generales (50% Stake) – Mutua 2. €1bn Banca 3. €1.7bn LME Holdings Madrilena Automovilista SL Civica 12 10 1. 1.1bn RAC plc – € TheCarlyle Group, LLC 8 6 4 2 0 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 €9.8bn €6.7bn €5.0bn €16.3bn €9.5bn €12.7bn €10.5bn €18.3bn Source: PwC analysis of mergermarket, Reuters and Dealogic data Consolidation reshaped the • The Russian banking sector continued to generate deals. Most notable were banking sector in several Ferrosplav Invest’s purchase of a 42% European markets stake in Khanty-Mansiisky Bank for Looking further down 2012’s list of €319m, and the €272m acquisition deals, domestic banking consolidation of Rossiyskiy Kredit Bank by a group emerges clearly as one of the year’s of private investors. Many small and major strategic themes: privately owned banks also changed hands, although the terms of these • In Greece, market leader National deals were typically not made public. Bank of Greece agreed to acquire second-placed Eurobank for €647m, The year also saw a wave of while Alpha Bank acquired Emporiki consolidation among European from Credit Agricole for a nominal savings’ banks and mutual lenders. sum. Piraeus Bank was also busy, The most eye-catching deal was acquiring ATE Bank for €95m and Sparkassenverband Bayern’s €818m Geniki Bank from Societe Generale. acquisition of local building society Bayerische Landesbausparkasse. Also • part from CaixaBank’s planned A in Germany, Volksbank Krefeld merged acquisitions of Banco de Valencia and with Volksbank Brueggen Nettetal Banca Civica, Spain saw Sabadell (€ undisclosed). acquire Banco Mare Nostrum’s 462 branches in Catalonia and Aragon for €350m, and BBVA acquire Unnim from the FROB for a token €1. 6 PwC Sharing deal insight
  • 7. 46% In Italy, Banca Popolare dell’Etruria acquired a further 46% stake in Banca Popolare Lecchese. Figure 4: European FS MA by subsector: LHS - total deal value (€bn) 09–12. RHS – total deal volumes, 10–12 60 600 50 500 40 400 30 300 20 200 10 100 0 0 Banking Insurance Asset mgmt Other Banking Insurance Asset mgmt Other n 2009 n 2010 n 2011 n 2012 n 2010 n 2011 n 2012 Source: PwC analysis of mergermarket, Reuters and Dealogic data Source: PwC analysis of mergermarket, Reuters and Dealogic data Mutual mergers also took place in sellers included ING, which sold its UK In addition to Sberbank’s €2.8bn bid Denmark, where Den Jyske Sparekasse direct banking business to Barclays, and for Denizbank, Eurobank Tekfen was acquired two of its counterparts; in Credit Agricole, which not only sold sold by Greek Eurobank Ergasias to Spain, where several mergers between Greek subsidiary Emporiki, but also its Burgan Bank of Kuwait for €271m, and local Cajas took place; and in Italy, Cheuvreux securities’ business. SamrukKaznaya of Kazakhstan acquired where Banca Popolare dell’Etruria a 34% stake in Sekerbank (€130m). acquired a further 46% stake in Banca Of course, one bank’s forced disposal is Standard Chartered acquired Credit Popolare Lecchese. In the UK, building another’s growth opportunity. Mutual Agricole’s investment banking subsidiary society mergers were announced giant Rabobank showed a clear appetite Credit Agricole Yatirim Bankasi for an between the Nottingham and the for countercyclical expansion during the undisclosed sum. Shepshed, and between the Scottish and year. In the Netherlands, Rabo merged the Century. Although mergers between with regional lender Friesland bank, Insurance and asset mutual lenders are often driven by the bought out Delta Lloyd’s 51% share in Friesland’s life insurance unit and management saw few large need to strengthen balance sheets, they also reflect a view that larger mutual acquired a 30% stake in mortgage lender deals, but plenty of activity Obvion, all for undisclosed sums. Rabo In an apparent contrast to the institutions should be better placed to also acquired the last 40% of its Polish deal activity generated by banking survive – and even thrive – in the future. banking subsidiary BGZ for €301m. restructuring, the total value of insurance deals declined for the third Non-core disposals Santander was an example of a bank that year running and asset management continued to provide buyers used MA both to divest peripheral units transactions remained very subdued with opportunities for and to strengthen core areas of focus. (see Figure 4). As we have commented growth The Spanish bank disposed of subscale before in Sharing deal insight, obstacles Another aspect of European bank businesses in Switzerland and the Czech to transactions in these sectors include restructuring during 2012 was the Republic, but boosted its scale in Poland volatile financial markets, rapidly continuing flow of non-core disposals. through the €790m acquisition of Kredyt changing regulation and – not least – the One international bank making Bank from KBC. effects of uncertainty among banking divestments during the year was Lloyds, parent companies. Even so, total deal Poland was not the only fast-growing values can give a false impression. A which in addition to its sale of 632 European market to attract cross-border look at the number of announced deals branches, also disposed of its train investment during the year. Turkish suggests that activity in both sectors is leasing and Luxembourg private banking banking targets were in strong demand. holding up comparatively well. businesses for undisclosed sums. Other PwC Sharing deal insight 7
  • 8. €380m Dexia Asset Management was sold to Following its purchase of Banca Hong Kong private equity firm GCS Capital Civica – formed by the merger of Caja Burgos and three other savings’ banks for €380m – CaixaBank acquired 50% of Caja Burgos’ life business for €190m. Europe may not have seen any truly large The only asset management deal to insurance deals in 2012, but several mid- make the year’s Top 20 was Julius market deals rank inside the year’s Top Baer’s acquisition of Merrill Lynch’s 20 transactions (see Figure 5). non-US wealth management operations in a deal valued at €717m. Another • t the larger end, KBC continued its A wealth-oriented deal was Kleinwort divestment programme by selling Benson’s acquisition of private bank Polish insurer Warta to Talanx of BHF from Deutsche Bank for €384m. Germany and its minority partner The deal gives Klienwort access to the Meiji Yasuda of Japan (€770m). German market, and follows Deutsche’s Luxembourg investment fund Reinet acquisition of BHF as part of its 2009 also sought exposure to a growing purchase of Luxembourg private banking market, offering €498m for an group Sal Oppenheim. undisclosed stake in UK pension buyout specialist Pension Insurance Another feature of the year’s asset Corporation. management deals was the involvement of private equity firms in several major • he Spanish insurance market was T transactions. Clearly, the low capital particularly active during the year, requirements and relatively predictable with bank restructuring playing a role cash flows of asset management in several transactions. Nationalised businesses continue to attract private lender Bankia bought out Aviva’s equity firms focusing on financial share of its insurance joint venture services. Aseval for €608m; Grupo Catalana Occidente and partner INOC acquired • fter a long sale process, Dexia Asset A Groupama’s Spanish insurance unit Management was sold to Hong Kong for €405m; and Aegon acquired a private equity firm GCS Capital for 51% stake in Santander’s domestic €380m. insurance business for €220m. 8 PwC Sharing deal insight
  • 9. Figure 5: Top 20 European FS MA deals 2012 Month Target company Target country Bidder company Bidder country Deal value (€m) Jan RBS Aviation Capital Ireland Sumitomo Mitsui Japan 5,760 Nov Dexia Belgium Governments of Belgium and France Belgium, France 5,500 Nov Banco de Valencia Spain FROB, then CaixaBank Spain 4,500 Jun Bankia (45%) Spain FROB Spain 4,456 Sep Gruppo Sace, Simest Italy Cassa Depositi e Prestiti Italy 3,800 Nov Ally Financial in Europe Various, Europe and General Motors Financial US 3,274 and Latin America LatAm Jun Denizbank Turkey Sberbank Russia 2,816 Jul Cyprus Popular Bank Cyprus Government of Cyprus Cyprus 1,796 Jun London Metal Exchange UK Hong Kong Exchanges Clearing Hong Kong 1,719 Mar Banca Civica Spain CaixaBank Spain 977 Jul Lloyds Bank – 632 branches UK Co-Operative Group UK 956 Apr RBC Dexia Investor Services (50%) UK Royal Bank of Canada Canada 838 Dec Bayerische Landesbausparkasse Germany Sparkassenverband Bayern Germany 818 Jan Kredyt Bank Poland Santander/Bank Zachodni Spain/Poland 790 Jan Warta Poland Talanx, Meiji Yasuda Germany, Japan 770 Aug Merrill Lynch – Switzerland Julius Baer Switzerland 717 International wealth mgmt Oct EFG Eurobank Ergasias Greece National Bank of Greece Greece 647 Dec Aseval (50%) Spain Bankia Spain 608 Jul Pension Insurance Corporation UK Reinet Luxembourg 498 Jun Groupama Seguros y Reasuguros Spain Grupo Catalana Occidente, INOC Spain 405 Subtotal 41,645 Other 9,389 Source: PwC analysis of mergermarket, Reuters and Dealogic data Grand total 51,034 • ridgepoint Capital acquired UK B €111m purchase of fund of hedge fund Stock Exchange also agreed to acquire wealth manager Quilter from Morgan manager FRM, and the €76m acquisition a controlling stake in clearing house Stanley in a deal valued at €216m. of Polygon by US counterpart Tetragon. LCH.Clearnet for €341m. Both HKEx Bridgepoint’s stated desire to expand and LSE are aiming to become globally the business – both organically and There were several other competitive exchange and clearing through MA – was illustrated by significant themes at providers. Quilter’s subsequent acquisition of UK private client wealth manager work in 2012’s financial • onsolidation among securities C Cheviot (€125m). services deals servicers. The largest such deal was Beyond the major areas of deal activity Royal Bank of Canada’s buyout of its As usual, 2012 also saw a range of asset identified above, several other themes securities’ servicing joint venture with management deals involving smaller played a role in shaping European Dexia (€838m), but there were also targets, often without published deal financial services MA during 2012. several smaller transactions such as values. As often in this sector the UK We draw attention to four in particular: Banca Popolare dell’Emilia Romagna’s was the most active market, accounting sale of its depositary business (€21m). for 17 of the 35 announced deals with • ntegration among financial I disclosed values. Several of these exchanges. Apart from the €1.7bn • ayment industry transactions. P transactions involved alternative acquisition of member-owned London Payment processing networks were the investment managers; the two most Metal Exchange by Hong Kong target of several deals during the year. prominent examples were Man Group’s Exchanges Clearing, the London These included Skrill’s acquisition of PwC Sharing deal insight 9
  • 10. PaysafeCard.com of Austria (€140m) Bank restructuring will remain the main and Sberbank’s purchase of online motor of MA, with EU rulings on state payment network Yandex (€46m). aid continuing to act as a catalyst for The appeal of payments’ businesses banking divestments. One example of a to PE firms was illustrated by domestic deal could be RBS’s planned Exponent Private Equity’s support sale of 316 UK bank branches, following for the €170m MBO of Irish payment the collapse of its previous agreement company Fintrax. with Santander UK. • Loan disposals. Transactions Cross-border disposals in Europe’s involving loan portfolios are excluded emerging markets are also likely to be a from our dataset, but there is no feature of 2013. Several large Western mistaking European banks’ increasing European banking groups still own willingness to use asset disposals to a network of holdings in Central and strengthen their balance sheets. Sellers Eastern Europe and might welcome the of loans in 2012 included Barclays, chance to streamline their portfolio. Deutsche Bank, ING, Permanent TSB, The recently announced plan for Santander and Royal Bank of Scotland. Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund to We examine loan disposals in more sell its stakes in local banks BTA, Alliance detail on page 19. and Temirbank, further illustrates the potential for restructuring.7 Interest from Looking ahead international buyers is unlikely to be Sharing deal insight has reviewed strong in some peripheral markets, but European financial services MA for ten private equity bidders seeking exposure years. Several editions since 2009 have to a potential recovery in CEE valuations seen us analysing the most recent set may go some way to filling that gap. of data and concluding that a recovery may be on the way. In reality, the past Beyond banking, some large and long- three years have often proved to be anticipated deals should also come to the disappointing. As mentioned at the start boil during 2013. Rabobank’s recently of this analysis, 2012’s deal data suggests announced sale of Robeco to Orix of that expectations of a recovery in MA Japan will be one of Europe’s largest may be over-optimistic, if not misplaced. asset management deals of recent years. And if agreed, the planned merger In the short- to medium-term, we between Italy’s Unipol and Fiondiaria expect European financial services could add up to one of the most MA to be shaped by the same range important insurance transactions since of defensive and forward-looking the start of the financial crisis. More factors as at present. These include broadly, 2013 might see an increase in the need to streamline structures and insurance and asset management deals finances, the search for greater financial in faster-growing markets such as Turkey stability, the role of scale in response and Poland. to margin pressure, the importance of diversification and the desire to take Looking further ahead, some of 2012’s advantage of faster growth or stronger deals may also provide us with clues returns. of how European financial services transactions will evolve in future. For example, European markets are increasingly being targeted by bidders from emerging regions in search of capital, expertise and – in some markets – growth. It remains to be seen how these and other changes may affect 6 Kazakh ruler tells wealth fund to sell bailed-out ‘ European financial services MA in the banks’, Reuters, 04.02.13 longer term. 10 PwC Sharing deal insight
  • 11. 2013 might see an increase in insurance and asset management deals in faster-growing markets such as Turkey and Poland. PwC Sharing deal insight 11
  • 12. Sub-Saharan Africa The growth of financial services in sub-Saharan Africa is attracting increasing interest from regional and international groups. The next few years hold clear potential for a step up in MA transactions. Nigeria in particular offers scope for significant deal activity, fuelled by further restructuring in its banking sector. Not all international banks eyeing market also has clear potential for more Farouk Gumel sub-Saharan Africa are likely to restructuring. First, the government is PwC (Africa) make major acquisitions, but many considering strategic options for three farouk.x.gumel@ng.pwc.com will be open to smaller transactions. nationalised banks. Second, mid-tier International players typically find it banks are likely to come under increasing easier to build a presence in commercial competitive pressure from their larger banking than in retail, and the region’s rivals. Third, changes to banks’ permitted still-developing capital markets mean activities will stimulate deals. Some that corporate lending opportunities are banks will need to divest insurance, trust Financial services are developing rapidly particularly attractive. and investment banking subsidiaries; in sub-Saharan Africa. Many of the these will attract bids from financial region’s markets continue to enjoy robust Nigeria in particular has significant scope holding companies and private equity growth fuelled by the resources boom, for financial services MA over the next firms. International buyers may also economic reform, cross-border trade and few years. Nigeria has seen considerable seize the chance to build scale in Nigeria an expanding middle class. Local and banking consolidation since the financial and acquire a stepping stone towards international financial groups are using crisis of 2008, encouraged by a central attractive neighbouring markets. MA to increase their exposure to bank keen to create a smaller number of the region. better capitalised institutions. In 2010, Of course, deal-making in Nigeria – and there were three large domestic bank elsewhere in the region – is not without The majority of deal activity takes mergers; 2011 saw pan-African Ecobank its challenges. Political dimensions are a place in the larger, more sophisticated acquire Oceanic Bank in a major cross- fact of life, but stability and governance financial services markets and their border transaction; and in 2012, Union are gradually improving and most near neighbours. These include South Bank was taken over by a consortium hurdles can be overcome with a mixture Africa; Nigeria, Ghana and Ivory of domestic and international private of sensitivity and patience. International Coast; and Kenya together with its equity funds. financial groups are increasingly East African trade partners. Offshore convinced that the opportunities of islands Mauritius and Seychelles are also We expect further banking deal activity investing in sub-Saharan Africa far attracting international investors. in Nigeria during 2013 and beyond. In outweigh the potential drawbacks. part this reflects the inherent attractions As in other emerging markets, banking of this resource-rich economy and its is in the vanguard of financial services huge, under-banked population. But the MA. The major South African banks are among those targeting expansion, along with an increasing number of international groups with limited African exposure. Chinese banks are also Nigeria in particular has significant scope following Chinese construction, mining for financial services MA over the next and resources companies into Africa, with two – ICBC and CCB – working in few years. partnership with South African banks. 12 PwC Sharing deal insight
  • 13. Asset management in the Gulf: Successfully entering a large and attractive market Despite the huge potential of the asset and wealth management market in the Gulf, many foreign firms have found it difficult to build a substantial presence. A targeted approach built around the market’s changing and nuanced product demand and the need for close relationships on the ground could prove successful. the region and many have found that The investment choices of the onshore Fredrik Johansson their international product range is less high net worth and affluent segments PwC (UK) well suited to the local markets. Many have in the past tended to be quite fredrik.johansson@uk.pwc.com have also failed to develop the necessary conservative. But preferences are shifting, relationships on the ground, or win the partly in response to a generational shift confidence of customers in a market that in a region with a young and less risk- is still wary of asset management. averse population. The ideal product suite would focus on each end of the Andrew Macnab Meeting changing demands risk spectrum – low risk, pure liquidity PwC (UK) So what could deliver better results? products at one end and higher risk andrew.macnab@uk.pwc.com The onshore market is very different and return products at the other. Many from the offshore market and it is still western asset and wealth managers’ significantly under-penetrated. In product ranges fall between these two addition, onshore investors have different extremes. One advantage that western demands in terms of relationships and asset and wealth managers do have is services, and look for a different risk/ that they can meet the relatively new With private financial wealth of but increasing demands of international more than $3 trillion (excluding GCC return profile of their investments. To be successful, we believe international asset product capabilities in the onshore government wealth), the oil and gas market, something the local players are rich states of the Gulf Co-operation and wealth managers must have: currently also trying to address with Council (Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, • trong local asset and wealth S varying degrees of success. Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates) management specific relationships; is one of the most interesting, yet • local market knowledge and physical A Developing a presence in these markets least well known, asset and wealth presence in the onshore market; and will continue to be challenging, though management markets. given the high levels of wealth and • product range which meets the A significant pools of investable assets, it is Ultra high net worth customers onshore investors’ demands. not necessary to have a large market share (investable assets of more than $50 If this can be combined with a strong to capture a meaningful size of assets million) tend to manage the bulk of their international brand then that can be an which can deliver strong revenues. wealth outside the region through their added competitive advantage. own family offices. This offshore business Local banks have well-developed is already captured and well serviced The majority of private wealth from high relationships and propositions but there by the large international asset and net worth (investable assets of $1-$50 are still opportunities for international wealth managers through their offices million) and affluent (investable assets players to use their brand, reputation and in Switzerland, New York and London, of $0.5-$1 million) is held onshore. Sales product expertise in this attractive market although there has been a trend for some strategies based on western salesmen if they can combine this with a relevant ultra high net worth clients to repatriate flying into the region to attract local, range of products, local asset and wealth some of their assets back onshore. onshore capital have not worked as management specific relationships and onshore investors want to see a longer on the ground presence. But international asset and wealth term commitment to the local market managers have overall had limited for the international manager to gain success in attracting onshore assets in their trust. PwC Sharing deal insight 13
  • 14. Capitalising on the mutual shake-up The continuing consolidation and realignment of the French mutual health insurance sector is creating opportunities for new strategic alliances and ways to broaden customer reach. The French mutual sector7 has already Shifting demand Antoine Grenier been transformed by consolidation. In Many French customers are still attached PwC (France) 2006 there were more than 1,100 mutual to insurance providers that are part of antoine.grenier@fr.pwc.com companies. By 2011, there were fewer the ‘social economy’ such as mutuals. than 700 (see Figure 6). This feeling has been strengthened by the financial crisis as non-profit-making The increasing concentration of the organisations are not seen as being market is further reflected in the fact responsible for the current economic that the top 100 mutuals account for Pauline Adam-Kalfon difficulties. Nevertheless, tougher around 90% of mutuals’ overall turnover PwC (France) market demands are set to accelerate the pauline.adam-kalfon@fr.pwc.com and are now able to compete with large transformation within the mutual sector. conventional insurers on scale and product range. Figure 6: French mutual: An increasingly concentrated market 1200 1000 Number of mutuals 800 600 400 200 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 7 his article focuses on ‘M45’ mutuals, which have T Source: French Prudential Supervisory Authority (ACP) historically focused on health insurance 14 PwC Sharing deal insight
  • 15. Customers are readier to shop around the whole of France. Mergers, joint A number of innovative legal structures as they seek out the most competitive ventures and strategic alliances such as have been developed to support these prices, notably through price comparison commercial cross-selling or industrial tie-ups and regulators have been ready websites. They are also looking for agreements are also playing an to support these moves as part of their improved service. This includes the important role in the realignment of wider backing for the social sector. convenience, choice and interaction of the market. digital distribution and insurance cover The key to realising the benefits is a clear that is more tailored to their individual So what are the options for the mutuals? understanding of where and how the needs. In turn, competition is mounting mutual can compete, how they can better Option one is further consolidation serve their clients and what deal and as some of the large conventional between smaller and medium-sized alliance options could best support this. insurers seek to make inroads into health mutuals. Having gained greater For example, a mutual that is heavily the health sector, traditionally led by scale, the business might then be in a reliant on trade union business would be the mutuals. better position to seek an alliance with better to seek a partnership with another Profitability in this mutual sector is also a conventional partner at a later stage. mutual than with a conventional insurer. being put under pressure by increased To support these moves, operational regulatory requirements and pressure collaboration would allow businesses to Post-merger integration is also a key on rates in the competitive environment. share IT, administration and – to some consideration. How are businesses, The need to meet new solvency extent – staff. products range, tariff policy and back- demands, control losses and sustain office functions going to be integrated Option two is to join forces with players and rationalised, for example? How are returns calls for new management specialising in protection cover (Instituts agents going to be equipped to support practices, improved management de Prévoyance) as they seek to broaden a wider product range? information and more systematic their scale and product range. internal controls. The future for French health mutuals Option three is to directly ally with a is underpinned by positive popular Broader reach conventional insurer to help extend sentiment and their readiness to In response, mutuals are seeking to the product range and capture new embrace radical restructuring. A fresh diversify their product range and extend members. Customers can enjoy the wave of mergers, joint ventures and their customer reach. We’re already best of both worlds by buying from a alliances can help to meet evolving seeing a broader market focus – for mutual seen as a socially friendly market market demands and sustain competitive example, mutuals that have traditionally provider, while benefiting from improved relevance. been aligned with a particular profession choice. In turn, the conventional insurer or affinity group seeking to market can gain access to new customers and their products more widely, or regional specialised health products. mutuals trying to operate throughout PwC Sharing deal insight 15
  • 16. Greek banks: Weighing up the investment potential With the Greek economy set on a path of reform and restructuring, getting the timing right on an investment in Greece’s deleveraged and consolidated banking sector could provide a valuable business opportunity and macroeconomic play. The 2012 headlines were dominated The economy seems to be bottoming Emil Yiannopoulos by the European sovereign debt crisis. out and is poised for recovery with a PwC (Greece) In Greece, the result was probably the potentially significant upside. Prospects emil.yiannopoulos@gr.pwc.com largest sovereign debt rescheduling are bolstered by structural reforms and in history8 (€206 billion) as part of measures to eliminate distortions and the ‘Private Sector Involvement’ (PSI) public corruption. programme with a resulting 78% impairment of these debts. Together The banking sector restructuring is with the collapse of the Greek economy, progressing apace with the EU/IMF- the PSI precipitated the EU/IMF-led funded recapitalisation, deleveraging recapitalisation of the banking system, and resolution programme spurring a critical foundation for economic major consolidation and the creation of recovery. Figure 1 summarises the three ‘bad banks’ so far. The consolidated sectors’ capital needs and other sector will now be dominated by three key figures. groups comprising NBG/Eurobank, Alpha/Emporiki and Piraeus/ATE/ The problems faced by the country’s Geniki. The restructuring process is banks were primarily rooted in their supported by the Hellenic Financial exposure to sovereign debt, with their Stability Fund (HFSF), which channels capital base decimated by the PSI recapitalisation funds and administers restructuring and, in parallel, the macro- Greek State holdings. economic shrinkage that directly affects loan defaults. This contrasts with the NPL levels have soared as a result of the Irish banking sector, which fell victim to economic slide, though the quantum of risky lending decisions made during the the recapitalisation process was based on credit bubble of 2002 to 2007. the estimated total credit losses in each of the existing portfolios, which was Turning the corner determined by a detailed due diligence Politically, the country has pulled back exercise carried out by an independent from the precipice it was facing in the advisor from the US. summer of 2012, with the coalition government forging a relatively stable administration committed to reform. 8 Eurobank EFG , 9.03.12 16 PwC Sharing deal insight
  • 17. The economy seems to be bottoming out and is poised for recovery with a potentially significant upside. Figure 7: Estimated losses and capital needs 1 NBG and Eurobank are in the process of acquisition/merger Process for calculating capital needs (December 2011–December 2014 in a consolidated basis) 2 Alpha acquired on 1 February 2013 Emporiki from in € million, estimated in May 2012 Credit Agricole SA 3 Piraeus acquired Geniki bank on 14 December Bank Total gross Loan balances Gross CLPs Loan loss Capital 2012 and ATE’s ‘good bank’, which was resolved PSI loss Dec 2011 for credit reserves Needs in July 2012 (Dec 2011) Risk4 (Dec 2011)5 4 Gross credit loss projections (CLPs) over the June NBG1 -11,735 41,019 -8,366 5,390 9,756 2011 to December 2014 period for Greek loan portfolios, foreign and state-related portfolios. Eurobank1 -5,781 37,116 -8,226 3,514 5,839 CLPs for Greek loan portfolios take into account three elements: a) three-year CLPs estimated by Alpha2 -4,786 34,298 -8,493 3,115 4,571 Blackrock; b) a fourth year of the CLPs; c) the credit risk cost for the new production Piraeus3 -5,911 25,909 -6,281 2,565 7,335 5 Accumulated provisions (as at December 2011) already recorded by banks for the loan portfolios Emporiki 2 -590 19,881 -6,351 3,969 2,475 referred to in column ‘Gross CLPs for credit risk’ 6 Includes loans at banks not requiring additional ATEbank 3 -4,329 14,639 -3,383 2,344 4,920 capital Postbank -3,444 9,335 -1,482 1,284 3,737 Millenium -137 4,997 -638 213 399 Geniki3 -292 4,174 -1,552 1,309 281 Other (5 other smaller banks) -728 11,742 6 -2,061 1,025 1,229 Total -37,733 203,110 -46,833 24,728 40,542 Source: Bank of Greece report on the recapitalisation and restructuring of the Greek Baking Sector, ‘Core Banks’ Subtotal -28,213 138,342 -31,366 14,584 27,501 20.12.12 Investment opportunity stockholders confer rights to acquire The country’s difficulties are likely the remaining 90% of the stock at to be reflected in the pricing of the and if so when? effectively slightly above par, depending restructured businesses and assets, but Apart from three small banks, all Greek on the timing the warrants are exercised. with substantial potential for upside tied banks will now proceed with rights’ In the current market this seems to to the fortunes of the economy, Greece issues during 2013 as part of their be a very full valuation and again and the wider eurozone. recapitalisation programmes. The terms investors are questioning the wisdom for the issue of the new stock (including A new factor that will also need to of putting such a rigid valuation conditional convertibles ‘CoCos’) be taken into account is the EU’s structure on the warrants, which ignores provide, inter alia, that if a minimum appointment of independent monitors to market conditions. of 10% private equity participation is oversee the restructuring of each of the achieved then private shareholders will The balance of the state holdings institutions receiving new public money. assume administrative control. If not, the (passed back to the government once This could prove to be a double-edged banks will be administered by the HFSF. the HFSF fulfils its remit and is wound sword as the ‘monitoring trustees’ report up) are scheduled to be sold by the directly to the EU commission. While this Questions have been raised by a number Greek Government in 2018 on terms that process strengthens governance, it could of investors on the attractiveness of may be particularly attractive to private slow down decision-making and create participation in the recapitalisation at shareholders. Further opportunities the potential for bureaucratic delays. this point due to the current negative come from the sale of non-core loan equity position that the banks have and portfolios (performing as well as non- the minimum returns the CoCos would performing), foreign subsidiaries and be entitled to. However, it seems that individual corporate exposures. there is some private sector interest from a variety of sources including private equity, several sovereign wealth funds and certain of the existing shareholders. The warrants issued to the new private PwC Sharing deal insight 17
  • 18. Overseas operations are being sold as groups seek to raise funds and refocus on their domestic markets. Looking again at Belgium and the Netherlands Targeting pockets of opportunity in Belgium and the Netherlands’ restructured landscape. While much of the focus of deal activity number of segments such as mortgages Wilbert van den has been the overseas holdings, investors in Belgium and the Netherlands continue Heuvel are taking a fresh look at the domestic to deliver relatively strong returns. PwC (Netherlands) assets. The Fidea9 and Dexia Asset wilbert.van.den.heuvel@ Management10 deals are a testament The downturn in demand in the life nl.pwc.com and pensions sector could lead to to private equity interest. The recent acquisition of a controlling interest in many portfolios being placed in run- Robeco by Orix highlights the potential off, opening up opportunities for fund openings for corporate buyers.11 administrators and consolidation The price for the high level of state vehicles. Non-life arms could be sold support received by many leading As the recent nationalisation of SNS separately in split deals that may attract banks and insurers in Belgium and REAAL highlights,12 the restructuring is corporate buyers looking to increase the Netherlands has been a major likely to be ongoing for some time. Press market share. programme of divestment and reports have suggested that the company restructuring. had earlier been targeted by a private A major merger between two of equity consortium.13 the larger groups is also possible. Overseas operations are being sold as These groups had grown into major groups seek to raise funds and refocus So why the interest from prospective international corporations prior to the on their domestic markets. EU bail-out buyers? financial crisis. As their focus becomes conditions have also necessitated the domestic once again, consolidation may break-up of several groups. Prominent Prices are attractive – for example, be necessary to reflect the smaller size examples include the planned split of Fidea’s sale price valued the company at of their main markets. ING’s insurance arm and sale of various below book value.14 foreign operations. The challenges of realising the full value The range of assets on offer includes of these deals encompass the difficulties a number of profitable and capital of separating and valuing entities that light mortgage administration, asset may rely on central group services. management, debt collection and other Corporate and PE buyers will also need 09 KBC media release, 30.03,12 service companies. to demonstrate to regulators that they 10 Dexia media release, 17.12.12 have a coherent long-term strategy for 11 Robeco media release, 19.02.13 Divestments are an opportunity for the holdings they are seeking to acquire. 12 overnment of the Netherlands, Ministry of G acquirers to gain a foothold in two Finance media release, 01.02.13 relatively affluent Northern European 13 Reuters, 01.02.13 markets. Despite slow growth overall, a 14 Reuters, 17.10.11 18 PwC Sharing deal insight
  • 19. Loan portfolio transactions Over the past few years European banks have been among the world’s most active sellers of loan portfolios. Despite some national variations we see clear potential for further activity, and loan portfolio transactions look set to become an increasingly important strategic tool, both for buyers and sellers. Over the last two years European banks Of course, loan sales are not the only Richard Thompson have divested loans with face values option for European banks seeking PwC (UK) in the tens of billions of euros. Among to reduce leverage. Non-core loans richard.c.thompson@uk.pwc.com countries with large levels of non- may be refinanced in the normal way, performing loans, the UK, Ireland and or go through accelerated workout. Spain have been the most active markets. Asset swaps and other structured In contrast, Germany and Italy have arrangements will also be used. so far seen comparatively few deals. There is also variation between smaller Even so, the European market for Any reader of the financial press will loan sales clearly has strong scope markets: Portugal has generated several know that many European banks have for expansion. Portfolio transactions, transactions but the Netherlands has been selling off portions of their loan already more central to bank been relatively quiet. books in recent years. The motives restructuring than in previous credit are obvious. Banks need to reduce Several factors suggest the European downturns, are likely to play an leverage and stabilise their earnings, market for loan portfolio transactions increasingly important role in banking and disposals of low-quality or non- will expand during 2013, and we expect strategy over the new few years. core assets can achieve both goals. loans with a face value of around €60bn Meanwhile, well-capitalised banks and to transact during the year. The need for private equity funds have acquired loan deleveraging remains huge, and banks portfolios in the search for attractive are increasingly willing to ring-fence returns, especially at a time of low yields assets and prepare them for disposal. and slow credit expansion. At the same time there is growing investor appetite for distressed debt, These countercyclical drivers mean that and regulatory pressure to strengthen Europe is now one of the world’s largest balance sheets is building. Further markets for loan portfolio sales. We have rounds of provisioning by European estimated European banks’ non-core banks could also stimulate deals by loans at the end of 2011 at more than tightening pricing gaps. Transactions €2.5tn, equivalent to 6% of total banking will continue to flow from the more assets, and within this, we have non- active markets, but countries such as performing loans to have a face value of Italy and France also have the potential around €1tn.15 Fiscal austerity and weak to generate greater deal volumes. economic growth suggests that asset quality may get worse before it gets better. 15 Based on internal PwC analysis PwC Sharing deal insight 19
  • 20. Methodology The Data analysis section in this issue Our analysis excludes deals that, in our includes financial services deals: view, are not ‘pure’ FS deals involving corporate entities, or entire operations, • eported by mergermarket, Reuters r e.g. real estate deals and sales/purchases and Dealogic; of asset portfolios where the disclosed deal value represents the value of • nnounced in 2012, and expected to a assets sold. complete; • nvolving the acquisition of a 30% i stake (or significant stake giving effective control to the acquirer); and • cquisitions of Europe-based FS targets a where a deal value has been publicly disclosed. Figure 8: European FS deals – quarterly summary Deal value € in billions Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 FY 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 FY 12 Asset management 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.1 0.3 0.2 1.2 0.8 2.4 Banking 5.9 2.0 3.7 11.0 22.7 1.9 8.5 3.6 15.9 29.9 Insurance 2.0 2.5 0.2 4.0 8.6 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 4.3 Other 0.9 1.8 0.7 1.0 4.3 6.4 2.9 4.6 0.5 14.4 Total deal value 9.8 6.7 5.0 16.3 37.7 9.5 12.7 10.5 18.3 51.0 Corporate 9.5 4.8 3.3 10.2 27.8 9.1 7.9 4.3 7.6 29.0 PE 0.3 1.9 0.5 0.7 3.4 0.2 - 0.4 0.7 1.3 Government 0.0 - - 4.4 4.4 - 4.5 5.6 10.0 20.1 Other 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.0 2.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 Total deal value 9.8 6.7 5.0 16.3 37.7 9.5 12.7 10.5 18.3 51.0 Domestic 8.5 3.0 2.6 11.1 25.2 2.7 6.1 8.9 13.9 31.6 Cross-border 1.3 3.6 2.4 5.2 12.5 6.8 6.7 1.6 4.4 19.4 Total deal value 9.8 6.7 5.0 16.3 37.7 9.5 12.7 10.5 18.3 51.0 Source: mergermarket, Thomson Reuters, Dealogic, PwC analysis Note: May contain rounding differences 20 PwC Sharing deal insight
  • 21. About PwC MA advisory services in the financial services sector PwC is a leading consulting and accounting adviser for MA in the FS sector. Through our Corporate Finance, Strategy, Structuring, Transaction Services, Valuation, Consulting, Human Resource and Tax practices, we offer a full suite of MA advisory services. The main areas of our services are: • oan portfolio advisory services l including performance analysis, • ead advisory corporate finance; l due diligence and valuation; • eal structuring, drawing on d • ost-merger integration: synergy p accounting, regulation and tax assessments, planning and project requirements; management; • ue diligence: commercial, financial d • uman resource and pension scheme h and operational; advice; and • usiness and asset valuations and b • aluations for financial reporting v fairness opinions; purposes. About this report In addition to the named authors of the articles, the main authors of, and editorial team for, this report were Nick Page, a partner and Fredrik Johansson, a director in PwC (UK) Transaction Services – Financial Services team in London. Other contributions were made by Andrew Mills of Insight Financial Research, Tina Mayo, Francisco Egana Barrios, Felix Ross and Khaled Abdul Wasey of PwC UK. Geared up for growth? We can help you take advantage of the emerging opportunities for expansion and acquisition. Find out more about our MA advisory services at www.pwc.com/financialservices PwC Sharing deal insight 21
  • 22. PwC helps organisations and individuals create the value they’re looking for. We’re a network of firms in 158 countries with more than 180,000 people who are committed to delivering quality in assurance, tax and advisory services. Tell us what matters to you and find out more by visiting us at www.pwc.com. This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only, and does not constitute professional advice. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law, PwC does do not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. For further information on the Global FS MA marketing programme or for additional copies please contact Tina Mayo, Global Financial Services Marketing, PwC UK on +44 20 7212 2371 or at tina.mayo@uk.pwc.com
  • 23. www.pwc.com/financialservices © 2013 PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details.